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Leon Goldsmith: Middle East politics expert on the effects of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Himmas's leader Ismael Hanair has been assassinated inside Tehran in
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Iran it's the capital. No one has claimed responsibility yet,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: but analysts on the Iranian state television have placed the
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: blame squarely with Israel for the attack. Israel doesn't normally
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: talk about any of its offensives overseas, so in what
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: direction could this take the conflict from here? The Otago
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: University Senior lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics as
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: doctor Leon Goldsmith. First of all, what do you think
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: this is going to do? Because this leader Ismael Hnair
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: was obviously on the diplomatic offensive to try and get
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: a cease fire. Does this mean a ceasefire is further
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: out of reach?
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I think this probably takes the S five deal
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: off the table for now, definitely, for moves that possibility
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: are But I think what it was is that Israel
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: is probably sending a very strong message that none are safe.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: I think we've had the isbela number two in Hamas,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: number one killed inside one day in the capital Ofbanon
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and iranis it's fairly significant and it could cause a
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: major reverberations.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's not in the case of Lebanon. It
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: they're not just heading you know, the southern border. They've
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: actually they've actually struck them in be I mean they're
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: heading to the capitals here, aren't.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: They, which is precisely what the US asked them not
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: to do.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So do you in some ways do we take heart
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: from the fact that they are quite limited in scope?
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Well, I think what these are very strategic, targeted assassinations
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: of people that the Israelis believe are responsible for October
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: seven and another attacks against Israel. So this is their
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: policy for some time of disproportionate retaliation against individuals. So
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Asma Honey is the most senior person to be targeted
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: and assassinate, assassinated since October seven, and until that was
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: until yesterday. Previously it would have been for a shaka
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: who was killed in Beirut, So I think it's I
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: think it may have just also been timing here because
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: normally Ismahanir would have been in Doha, which would have
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: been somewhere with Israel would never touch him. The fact
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: that he happened to be in Tehran for the inauguration
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: of the Revenue President gave Israelis an opportunity to hit him.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Right your assessment basically sees far off the table for
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: now as a result of this, what about risk of
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: a wider conflict?
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: What is that?
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  Speaker 1: What does it take before we take over into that territory.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Well, I think there's going to be some very serious
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: conversations happening in Tehran right now and in Beyrout. So
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: I think on one hand, there's a lot of analysts
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: also suggesting that there is there's no way that Israel
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: can not retaliate in some way, either via his Baalah
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: through southern Elevenine also trying to ramp up attacks via
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Alhofi drones, rockets from Yemen. Also, as we've already seen
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: previously in April, direct missile launchers from Iran to Israel,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: which we'll have you know, a high degree of risk
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: of regional escalation. We also have US forces approaching the
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Lebanese coast warships again, so the pieces are looking quite
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: concerning here. What we may have seen is what we
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: probably saw the first phase of in April, is that
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: the Israelis are trying to perhaps draw the US into
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: a direct confrontation with Iran, which I think is something
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: reconcerning and something that the Iranians are probably quite key
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: not to be drawn into that trap.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's certainly on the table, isn't it. Thank
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: you very much for analysis, doctor Leon Goldsmith, Otago University,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Senior Lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics, with us
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: there saying that that cease fire pretty much off the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: table after this assassination. And don't forget that we have
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: skin in the game here too. We've got to defense
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: force members deployed to protect that maritime mute a route,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: i should say, from the in the Red Sea, from
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the Hootie Rebels.
• 4:20
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• 4:23
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• 4:24
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• 4:27
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