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Episode 113 - Lucky People Aren't Smarter: They Just Notice More · Sorta Sophisticated

• 0:00
  Speaker A: Welcome to Sorta Sophisticated with Pete and Amanda. All right, so question. Okay, answer. Are you ready?
• 0:08
  Speaker B: Yep.
• 0:09
  Speaker A: Who is the luckiest person you know? Oh, do you have, like, a friend?
• 0:16
  Speaker B: Are you saying, like, so. Yes.
• 0:17
  Speaker A: Like, lucky. Yeah.
• 0:18
  Speaker B: So her name is Ally.
• 0:19
  Speaker A: Her name is Al. We should. Her name should be Lucky. Yeah.
• 0:22
  Speaker B: Yes.
• 0:22
  Speaker A: Okay.
• 0:24
  Speaker B: I feel like she is the person who puts her name into, like, the drawings or the, you know, whatever calls into the radio station. She's the one who always gets picked. I think she's won on giveaways. Probably, like, 50 things.
• 0:38
  Speaker A: How do we know Ally?
• 0:39
  Speaker B: Sorry, sister.
• 0:40
  Speaker A: Whoa. All right, let's go. Yes.
• 0:43
  Speaker B: She still does to this day.
• 0:44
  Speaker A: I like that. And I think, like, what do we. What do we think Ali is doing that makes this a thing? Do we really just think?
• 0:50
  Speaker B: Well, I mean, I think she's putting in the effort to, like. She enters a lot of contests, so, I mean, if we go numbers, probably that's part of it because you're not
• 0:56
  Speaker A: entering as many as her.
• 0:57
  Speaker B: Oh, yeah. Absolutely not. And then, I mean, so then we go, like, a different type of lucky, right? We have another friend who makes, like, these crazy bets.
• 1:05
  Speaker A: Like gambling?
• 1:06
  Speaker B: Well, no, because it's like futures.
• 1:08
  Speaker A: Ooh. Okay. And so this guy's serious.
• 1:10
  Speaker B: Oh, I guess I shouldn't say bets,
• 1:11
  Speaker A: but he's serious trader.
• 1:12
  Speaker B: Yeah. These. Buys purchases.
• 1:14
  Speaker A: Yeah, I tried that with crypto.
• 1:16
  Speaker B: Some how he just parlays things and stupid. Stupid wins. So, you know, I. I don't know. I'm not lucky, though.
• 1:27
  Speaker A: Are you? Are you? Not really.
• 1:28
  Speaker B: I don't think I've. I don't think.
• 1:30
  Speaker A: Or is it because what you just said, which is like, you know, Ali enters the things.
• 1:34
  Speaker B: Maybe. I mean, Ali enters things. He knows what he's doing.
• 1:36
  Speaker A: He knows what he's doing. Right. This is my argument today. This is. So this is what we're talking about. We're gonna talk about is luck manufactured or is luck luck? I mean, this is. Yeah. This is the whole. This is the whole thing. Right. So my title, official title, is Lucky People Aren't Smarter, They Just Notice More.
• 1:50
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 1:51
  Speaker A: O. And here's what we're gonna promise. First off, what luck actually is, according to science. Not according to apparently, Ali or your other friend. To the four specific habits. Cause there's habits separate. Yes. That you would argue. Maybe Ali's doing that. Separate lucky people from unlucky people.
• 2:08
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 2:08
  Speaker A: Okay. And three, why your brain is basically incapable of understanding probability, which is gonna make us feel a little dumb, I'll admit, but it'll be in a fun way.
• 2:18
  Speaker B: I'm so intrigued.
• 2:19
  Speaker A: I promise.
• 2:19
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 2:19
  Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 2:20
  Speaker B: Here we go.
• 2:21
  Speaker A: This is it. We're doing this. It's all about luck. So let's go. Ally. Welcome back to. I don't know. What is this? 113.
• 2:26
  Speaker B: Oh, wow. Yeah.
• 2:27
  Speaker A: Unlucky. 113.
• 2:28
  Speaker B: Oh, dang.
• 2:29
  Speaker A: Oh, yeah.
• 2:29
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 2:29
  Speaker A: Sword Sophisticated, the podcast where culture, curiosity and chaos collide. I'm Pete. That's Amanda. Hi, Amanda.
• 2:36
  Speaker B: Hello, everyone. How are you doing today, Pete?
• 2:38
  Speaker A: I brought a lot today. I'm bringing a lot.
• 2:41
  Speaker B: I'm excited.
• 2:42
  Speaker A: Yeah, there's a lot going on.
• 2:43
  Speaker B: Who knew there was science behind luck or not luck?
• 2:44
  Speaker A: Yeah. I was feeling very unlucky. And that's why this episode was born. Cause I was like, you know what? I wanna know.
• 2:50
  Speaker B: All right. But you did say that it was gonna be fun.
• 2:52
  Speaker A: It is. No, it is gonna be fun. I was just.
• 2:54
  Speaker B: I don't know. You said the Odyssey was gonna be fun.
• 2:56
  Speaker A: You didn't like the Odyssey? I loved researching that one and doing that. Oh, by the way, also, shout out. I have to. Cause I got comment. You know, you get comments. Apparently the Epic of Gilgamesh is the oldest known story in the world way before the Odyssey.
• 3:12
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 3:12
  Speaker A: So I got called out, like, who is this dude? He doesn't even know what he's talking about. Right, Sorta. Which is sort of sophisticated. So anybody who's listening or paying attention, Epic of Gilgamesh.
• 3:21
  Speaker B: All right.
• 3:21
  Speaker A: Wait, what were you saying?
• 3:23
  Speaker B: Did you see the reviews for the Odyssey?
• 3:25
  Speaker A: I saw the reviews.
• 3:25
  Speaker B: Oh, did you see it?
• 3:26
  Speaker A: Yeah, I saw it.
• 3:27
  Speaker B: Oh, you did?
• 3:28
  Speaker A: Yeah, I saw it. I saw it. It was awesome. Yes, it was good. It was good.
• 3:30
  Speaker B: Oh, good.
• 3:31
  Speaker A: Yeah. Did you haven't seen yet.
• 3:32
  Speaker B: I have not yet. It's gonna be my Tuesday night activity.
• 3:34
  Speaker A: Oh, you're. Okay, let's go. I'll go with you again.
• 3:36
  Speaker B: Okay. Okay, Sounds good.
• 3:37
  Speaker A: All right. Can we do word of the week?
• 3:38
  Speaker B: Of course.
• 3:38
  Speaker A: All right. Word of the week. Word of the week is gainsay.
• 3:41
  Speaker B: Gainsay.
• 3:42
  Speaker A: Gainsay. G A I, N S A Y Gainsay.
• 3:45
  Speaker B: So you gained something. You say, hardy har har.
• 3:49
  Speaker A: Gainsay is a verb. It means to deny or to contradict something.
• 3:53
  Speaker B: Oh, yeah, no, that's not what I would expect.
• 3:55
  Speaker A: I won't gainsay what you're saying, but I think you're wrong anyway.
• 3:58
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 3:58
  Speaker A: Okay.
• 3:59
  Speaker B: All right.
• 3:59
  Speaker A: It comes from the old English, gain, meaning against, plus, say. So like literally to against say.
• 4:06
  Speaker B: Interesting.
• 4:07
  Speaker A: I don't know. Nobody uses anymore.
• 4:08
  Speaker B: Because it's but to gain. Now, we don't use that. Oh, interesting. All right, I agree.
• 4:12
  Speaker A: Contradict.
• 4:12
  Speaker B: Right? That's like, we're all a little smarter.
• 4:14
  Speaker A: Bring it back on. Sort of sophisticated. Gainsay to deny or contradict. I gainsay you, Amanda. All right. That's how this is going.
• 4:23
  Speaker B: All right, well, let's get started then. History.
• 4:25
  Speaker A: History, yes. But first, if you like what you're listening to, hit subscribe. Click. Clicky click. Follow us. New episodes come out weekly on any podcast platform or watch us on YouTube. Make fools of ourselves. Whatever works for you guys. History. We ready?
• 4:38
  Speaker B: Ready.
• 4:39
  Speaker A: I have no history.
• 4:39
  Speaker B: Luck is not history. Luck is luck. You didn't know.
• 4:41
  Speaker A: No, no, no. I do have a definition.
• 4:43
  Speaker B: You did not.
• 4:43
  Speaker A: I don't have a history of luck, but I have a definition of luck. Okay, here we go. You ready? Luck is an outcome affected by factors outside of your control.
• 4:52
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 4:52
  Speaker A: That is the Webster definition. That's it.
• 4:56
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 4:57
  Speaker A: But I suppose we should add the word positive outcome. No.
• 5:01
  Speaker B: You can have bad luck.
• 5:02
  Speaker A: Oh, yeah, I guess so. Right? So. Okay. Well. Yeah. Okay.
• 5:05
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 5:05
  Speaker A: Then you're right. You're right.
• 5:05
  Speaker B: You're right.
• 5:06
  Speaker A: Right. So luck is. Luck is just an outcome affected by factors outside of your control, positive or negative. I guess that works. Okay. But here's the thing, though, about that. So how much stuff that happens to you is actually outside of your control? Like, really outside of your control? I don't. I'm gonna argue. I don't think it's as much as
• 5:22
  Speaker B: you think, but, like, karma's a bitch. So I feel like this is where
• 5:25
  Speaker A: we're gonna go on this episode a little bit, because I'm gonna argue. I know I'm a control freak. I get it. And I know you could look at me like you always do, and you're like, oh, you don't control as much as you think you do. You'll see by the end. I'm gonna try to. What is it? Jedi mind trick? I think I'm gonna try to do this in this episode where we do control a little more.
• 5:40
  Speaker B: So you're gonna tell me that there's
• 5:41
  Speaker A: some science behind science. We got science.
• 5:43
  Speaker B: We got a little bit sc. That's what we're going with?
• 5:46
  Speaker A: Yes.
• 5:46
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 5:46
  Speaker A: Okay. So there's this psychologist, and his name is Richard Weissman. Richard Weissman. Do you think he goes by Dick, or do you think he goes by Rich or just Richard?
• 5:54
  Speaker B: Probably Richard.
• 5:55
  Speaker A: Probably Richard.
• 5:55
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 5:55
  Speaker A: Yeah. He's lucky. Okay. He spent years. Amanda. Like, a lot of years. Like, his whole life Basically studying people who consider themselves lucky versus people who consider themselves unlucky. Okay, okay. Like, real, everyday people. Not like gamblers or freaks or, like, you know, your friend who bets on futures or anything like that. I mean, this is like, he would, like, recruit regular people off the street for his experiments and stuff. It was, like, crazy what he was doing.
• 6:17
  Speaker B: Yeah, but why did he even study that? What was he even doing?
• 6:20
  Speaker A: So he was trying to figure out what this whole idea of science and luck and see if there was connection. So here's what he does.
• 6:25
  Speaker B: So he was hypothesizing.
• 6:27
  Speaker A: He was. Thank you. He was totally hypothesizing. So he gathers a bunch of people, hands them all a newspaper. Like, a lot of people. Four or five hundred people. This wasn't a small amount. And he told them, count the number of photographs in the newspaper. This is the experiment. Seems easy enough. Yes. Right. Okay, but here's a trick. On the second page of the newspaper, there's a giant message took up literally half the page. And it said in bold letters, stop counting. There are 43 photos that was on the second page of the newspaper.
• 6:50
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 6:51
  Speaker A: And what he figured out was that all the, quote, lucky people noticed it, while all the unlucky people were so locked in on counting the photos that they missed the message completely.
• 7:02
  Speaker B: But how did he know they were lucky enough versus unlucky?
• 7:04
  Speaker A: What do you mean? He just decided they were lucky because they caught it. That's not good enough, huh? Just kidding. There's more behind that. I knew you were gonna go there, so let me explain this better. That's not how it happened at all. Before the experiment, he had interviewed everybody and asked them if they believed they were lucky or unlucky based on, like, life questions that he asked them. So, like, who they married, about their jobs, even silly stuff. Did they ever find money by chance or chance meetings or anything like that? Like, your friend Ally. Okay, Right. Where, like, would she consider herself lucky and why? And she might sit here on this podcast and tell us, well, this is why I think I'm lucky. And you, on the other hand, might be like, well, this is why I think I'm unlucky. Got it. So he categorized them before it all happened. Then after all that was over, he ran the newspaper experiment. Okay, so the newspaper experiment was really just the mechanism he used to figure
• 7:51
  Speaker B: out if, like, their observations were different.
• 7:54
  Speaker A: Yes. Than reality. Bingo. And what they figured out was that actually the lucky people were just more observant and had access to more chances because they were Spending more time paying attention than the unlucky people who weren't. So what he figured out, basically, was the unlucky people were so focused on not screwing anything up, like me, like, follow directions no matter what, I can't screw this up. Where the lucky people were sort of like, yeah, you know, whatever. It'll happen if it happened. Da, da, da. I'm just sort of flipping through. I'm like, life is occurring. Right? And he was able to figure out that this wasn't a coincidence. And fun fact, the unlucky people, believe it or not, actually missed two messages because I said there was, like, one message, like, the second page in. So, I mean, I guess you could argue that the unlucky people also did read that, saw that, and then were like, well, I don't believe him. This is part of the experiment. So I'm not. I'm gonna make sure the 43 are right. Anyway. So you see what I'm saying?
• 8:47
  Speaker B: Double check.
• 8:47
  Speaker A: Yeah. You can double check. Which I'm a skeptic, so I might do that. Right. And I. Maybe I'm lucky or unlucky, but I might do that. Yes. But here's the deal. Halfway through, we put another one in that said, stop counting, tell the experimenter you've seen this, and he will give you $250. And they still skipped it. So at the very least, right? At the very least, you would think two messages, one for money. At that point, you would think you'd stop and, like, pay attention to what's going on.
• 9:12
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 9:13
  Speaker A: Yes. Okay.
• 9:14
  Speaker B: I would.
• 9:14
  Speaker A: So. So that's my whole story. This reminds me of the. What's the joke with the guy on the roof of the house with the flood? The airplane comes by, the canoe comes by.
• 9:27
  Speaker B: Oh, and then he gets mad at God.
• 9:28
  Speaker A: And he gets mad at God. I sent you the airplane. I sent you the canoe, dummy. Right? This is. This. I'm the unlucky guy on the roof, when really, it's all.
• 9:36
  Speaker B: It's all around you. You're just not paying attention.
• 9:38
  Speaker A: Creating the opportunity. Yes. So whatever. So our buddy Richard, he didn't, like, really inventory lucky or unlucky for the experiment, of course. He just, like. He just, like, proved if it was already true, like, what we're talking about. So there's a. That's a little science. Yeah, Yeah, a little science.
• 9:51
  Speaker B: I'm very intrigued, like, of where he got that idea. Right. Of. In order to be lucky. You. Maybe it's because you're more observant.
• 9:59
  Speaker A: Right?
• 9:59
  Speaker B: Like, what did he what spurred that? Because, like, I never would have, like, put together luck with being observant.
• 10:06
  Speaker A: Yeah. And then. And then making it your life's work.
• 10:08
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 10:09
  Speaker A: Right. Isn't it weird the way people get passion for different little things like that?
• 10:12
  Speaker B: Right. Or, like.
• 10:13
  Speaker A: Yeah, I find it fascinating.
• 10:15
  Speaker B: And then was he also the one then that, like, figured out the different habits?
• 10:18
  Speaker A: Oh, yes.
• 10:19
  Speaker B: Or was he.
• 10:20
  Speaker A: No, that. This is the guy. Sorry.
• 10:21
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 10:21
  Speaker A: Yeah. So the four habits.
• 10:22
  Speaker B: Okay, so he took. Did he take that same control group and then, like, analyze it?
• 10:25
  Speaker A: Totally. Yeah. That's what he did. Like, he wrote a whole book on this whole thing. Yeah. Because he wanted to get rich. Okay, let's go back. He wasn't lucky. He was just looking for a way to get rich.
• 10:33
  Speaker B: Oh.
• 10:34
  Speaker A: So he was like, let's do an experiment on luck. Let's write a book about it. Let's tell everybody we have four habits. I'll get rich.
• 10:39
  Speaker B: All right.
• 10:40
  Speaker A: Right.
• 10:40
  Speaker B: Did he get rich?
• 10:41
  Speaker A: I don't know. Probably. I don't know this guy. I just know that this guy wrote the book about the four habits of lucky people. This is what we're going to do right now.
• 10:46
  Speaker B: All right, here we go. Good old Richard Wiseman.
• 10:49
  Speaker A: The book is called the Luck Factor. Came out in 2003. Not that long ago. That 20 years ago.
• 10:54
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 10:54
  Speaker A: Okay. Four habits.
• 10:55
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 10:56
  Speaker A: First one. We already kind of already talked about it. Lucky people notice more opportunities. That. Duh.
• 11:00
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 11:00
  Speaker A: That's the first habit. Well, I guess it's more like, lucky people know how to create more opportunities.
• 11:06
  Speaker B: And I'll give Ali that one.
• 11:07
  Speaker A: Let's get back to Ali.
• 11:08
  Speaker B: Absolutely creates it.
• 11:09
  Speaker A: That's in her DNA. Right. So they talk to more strangers. They enter more contests. They try new restaurants. They make more plans. They just. They say yes more than they say no.
• 11:21
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 11:22
  Speaker A: Okay. And then for some of us, that's not in our DNA. And we say no more than we say yes. Our job is to figure out how to continue to create those opportunities in
• 11:33
  Speaker B: our own life for something to happen.
• 11:36
  Speaker A: For something cool to happen. Yes. Drive a new way home from work. Right. Introduce yourself to a new neighbor or somebody down. Like when you're on a walk, stop and talk to somebody who's walking their dog. Right. Things like that, whatever, all that kind of stuff. Ruth and I were just talking about this the other day. Do I have time for a story? Can I do a story real quick? I mean, it's our podcast. We could do story.
• 11:54
  Speaker B: You can do whatever you want, of course.
• 11:55
  Speaker A: So she was like, oh, my God, I gotta meet a guy. Da, da, da. My God, dad, seriously, I gotta meet a boyfriend or whatever. Okay, Love that. For her. And she's like, what do I do? And I was like, I hadn't even researched any of this. And my first thought to her was, expand your circle.
• 12:08
  Speaker B: Like friendship. Yeah, yeah.
• 12:09
  Speaker A: So you have to put yourself in more situations to meet more people. So you're on campus in college. If you are going to the same places in the same classes, you have a very limited pool of people to choose from, or even your friends that you currently have, you know, they have friends, so on and so forth. But if you sign up for asb, if you decide to try dance again, if you, you know, go to hiking club or running club or. Or do anything, school, even if you don't join each of the clubs, even if you just show up for an event and try something new and then say, it's not for me, the likelihood of you meeting more people go up exponentially.
• 12:44
  Speaker B: Right?
• 12:45
  Speaker A: And she was like, huh, I never thought about it that way. And here I am, two weeks later, I don't even know, talking about luck on this. I didn't even put two and two together, but it was very interesting. So I thought, whatever, I'm on the right side of the road.
• 12:55
  Speaker B: Because then you would say, I went to this random event and I so luckily met, which is so.
• 13:01
  Speaker A: And so, which is really. You created the opportunity.
• 13:03
  Speaker B: Interesting.
• 13:04
  Speaker A: That's the argument. Okay, second habit. Lucky people learn to trust their gut more like their intuition than unlucky people.
• 13:11
  Speaker B: Okay?
• 13:12
  Speaker A: And I don't mean, like, zodiac sign shit. Like, I mean, I believe in some of that stuff, don't get me wrong. But that's not my point. Like pattern recognition. Like, our brains process a stupid amount of information below the surface all the time, 100 miles an hour. Like, we're not even aware of it. Like, at a conscious level, there's no way. Right? We're just.
• 13:28
  Speaker B: It's how we survived as humans.
• 13:30
  Speaker A: Yes, yes. And that gut feeling, right? It's just your brain is connecting the dots faster than your conscious mind can explain to you. That's his argument. That's happening for a reason. So the idea is to get in tune with that gut way more and don't just pass it off as, oh, it's a gut feeling. No, no, no, no, no. Your brain's telling you something you can't quite understand yet and can't articulate yet, but you're onto something because of its processing power. So that's the idea. Behind, trust your gut. And lucky people do that a lot more than unlucky people. That's all through his interviews and all of his experiments and so on and so forth. So that's number two. Okay. Third one is that lucky people actually expect good things to happen to them. They expect the outcome. Not, like, power of positive thinking or anything like that. This is behavioral. This is fundamental at their core. Think about it like this. If you expect to get rejected, you ask fewer people out, you take fewer risks, you talk to fewer people at a party, all of those things. So your odds, you specifically, are decreasing your odds because you are shrinking. Like, you're shrinking the pool and making it smaller on purpose. So this isn't like, oh, somebody will ask me out. This is just putting yourself in this situation where you expect good things to happen, and as a result of that, you put yourself in the situations that you'll be in.
• 14:49
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 14:50
  Speaker A: Does that make sense?
• 14:50
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 14:50
  Speaker A: Yes. So I guess it's tangential to the power of positive thinking, but it's really like, you have to train yourself to do this.
• 14:56
  Speaker B: Yeah. Like, seriously, you have to permeate what you're putting out there that you want to receive back.
• 15:00
  Speaker A: If you want to be luckier, you have to create your scenarios. That's all I'm getting at. Yeah.
• 15:05
  Speaker B: Yeah, that tracks. It actually makes sense.
• 15:07
  Speaker A: I mean, this guy's pretty smart, right? He spent his life doing this stuff. Okay, last habit. That was 1, 2, 3. Finally, the last one. Wiseman argues that lucky people reframe bad luck way more than unlucky people do. Okay. So unlucky people wallow, and then woe is me.
• 15:23
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 15:23
  Speaker A: Lucky people look at it as a setup for the next thing.
• 15:27
  Speaker B: Okay. I think it's like when you're the people who are in Vegas and they're gambling, I just think of the people that craps table. Right, Right. And then they like, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, craps out. Like, it's okay. It's okay. We're just getting ready for the big one. Getting ready for the big one. Whereas, you know, I'd be like, nope, out.
• 15:41
  Speaker A: We out.
• 15:42
  Speaker B: Lost it. Yeah, yeah.
• 15:44
  Speaker A: Like, at a way more deep level. I have done this with Gabby. Like, totally. We've talked about it. Her death, terrible. I could say I'm the unluckiest person in the world.
• 15:55
  Speaker B: Yes.
• 15:56
  Speaker A: On the other hand, and I think I've told you this, she taught me how to die. So I can look at that as an example of how to reframe something to say. I got the advantage of learning from her.
• 16:10
  Speaker B: Right.
• 16:10
  Speaker A: And I subsequently try to tell. I tell my kids that all the time. I tell anybody. Like, anybody talks about Gabby. Like, you recognize Gabby taught us all how to die. Like, you get this, right? Like, three years worth of being excellent.
• 16:19
  Speaker B: Such a huge reframe. Right? Right, yeah.
• 16:21
  Speaker A: Which is crazy. But I mean. And I know that's not necessarily like, am I lucky or unlucky? But, like, that. It's the same concept of reframing it. So you could. You could argue like, oh, Pete, you just have to say that to get through. That's fine. You guys tell me whatever you want to tell me. I really don't give two shits. I know what I think, and I know that that's a gift that was handed to me that would not have otherwise been handed to me, and I'm a better human because of it. And so I think that's the same concept of that shift there. That makes sense.
• 16:45
  Speaker B: It does.
• 16:45
  Speaker A: Yeah. Okay, so those are the four.
• 16:47
  Speaker B: Okay, so just like, real quick, the four habits so I can quickly remember them.
• 16:52
  Speaker A: The four habits.
• 16:53
  Speaker B: Yes. One.
• 16:54
  Speaker A: Lucky people notice more opportunities. Trust your gut.
• 16:57
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 16:57
  Speaker A: Lucky people expect good things to happen and learn how to reframe.
• 17:01
  Speaker B: All right, Those are the four. So really lucky people seemingly just have a better mental wellbeing outlook. Yeah. There you go.
• 17:11
  Speaker A: Right.
• 17:11
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 17:11
  Speaker A: This is like.
• 17:12
  Speaker B: Which is true. I mean, Ali is delightful.
• 17:14
  Speaker A: Got it. Thank you. Got it. I know it sounds so out there, but, like, I'm buying it. Right?
• 17:20
  Speaker B: But then what you're telling me is that. Sorry, what you're arguing is that I can change these four things and can change my luck around, and it's everything that I can control, but there has to be something, like, statistically, mathematically, about luck, because I feel like it's not just.
• 17:33
  Speaker A: Are you. Are you gainsaying me right now?
• 17:35
  Speaker B: Oh, I must be gainsaying you.
• 17:37
  Speaker A: Are you. Are you contradicting me right now?
• 17:40
  Speaker B: Yes.
• 17:40
  Speaker A: This is bullshit.
• 17:41
  Speaker B: Maybe a little bit. No, I'm not contradicting you. I'm just saying there has to be a little bit of math. Like, my mathematical brain, like, is putting on the brakes here and saying math.
• 17:50
  Speaker A: There's total math. We're going to do some math. Okay? We're going to do the. We're going to do the whole why we suck at probability thing, even though you think you're great at probability, because I know you do.
• 17:58
  Speaker B: Okay, here we go. Math me up.
• 18:00
  Speaker A: Okay, wait, hold on. Because there's actually two things going on. It's not just that we suck at probability. I mean, that's one of them. And that's the main one we're going to talk about first. But there's also something called survivorship bias, and we'll talk about that one next. Okay, so there's two. There's probability and survivorship bias. Bear with me. Okay, so probability is actually the exact opposite of the whole gut feeling thing we just talked about. Yeah, Right. Like, duh.
• 18:18
  Speaker B: So, like, you have 50% chance it's this or that.
• 18:20
  Speaker A: Yes.
• 18:20
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 18:21
  Speaker A: Right, right, right, right, right. The intuition stuff is like your brain catching the pattern before you do. This is sort of. Your brain only knows how to apply a rule that used to be true, not something more logical. Yes.
• 18:31
  Speaker B: Than emotional.
• 18:32
  Speaker A: Absolutely.
• 18:32
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 18:32
  Speaker A: Okay, example, you're thinking about a friend who you haven't seen in, I don't know, two years or something like that, and out of nowhere, the same day they text you, right? Oh, my God. Oh, my God. That's impossible. That's crazy. Yeah, no bullshit, right? It's not psychologically linked or anything like that at all. This is simply math. You have, what, a hundred friends? Sure, maybe if we're lucky, right? That could literally text you on any given day. And most of them you eventually are going to hear from at some point in your life again because they're your freaking friends. So the idea of, like, them resurfacing is not. It's not as random. Like, you probably think of a few of your friends every single day. Some not as often as others. But the point is, is it's. It's not a coincidence that it lands on the same day. The likelihood of that happening is probably like one in a couple hundred.
• 19:15
  Speaker B: Right? It's going to happen. It was going to happen.
• 19:16
  Speaker A: But because we're so connected to it, we make it sound like it's this big, massive thing. Oh, my God, I gotta go bet 23 in Vegas because of it. And it's total bullshit, right? Because on the opposite hand, think of the lottery, right? We all think we can win the lottery. And by the way, you can't. It's impossible. I know people do, but, like, it's impossible to win. Like, not unlikely for all practical purposes, impossible to win. 300 million to one to win the lottery versus the friend thing, which is probably like 300 to one, don't quote me on it. But because we're so emotionally connected and invested in the friend thing, we literally think those are the same odds, right?
• 19:52
  Speaker B: We're trying to bring connection because of
• 19:54
  Speaker A: the emotion, and that's what's crazy? Like say, okay, flipping a coin. You with me? Flipping a coin. Flip 10, flip 10 heads in a row. Right?
• 20:00
  Speaker B: Right.
• 20:00
  Speaker A: What are you thinking next?
• 20:02
  Speaker B: Oh, I'm getting tails.
• 20:03
  Speaker A: You're right. It's some. Right. Because logically.
• 20:05
  Speaker B: 50, 50, right.
• 20:06
  Speaker A: Logically your brain just is like. But. But they're completely independent events. That's true. And don't get me wrong, because you could argue that at some point if you flipped it 10,000 times, it will start to balance itself out. I do understand the logic behind making the experiment longer, but if you're working in groups of 10 or 20 or 30. Right. That margin of error is much bigger than when you flip a coin 1 million times. You could still be 10 off. Right. There could still be 10 more heads than tails. Don't get me wrong. It's just you won't notice it anymore because it's negligible because you did it a million times.
• 20:43
  Speaker B: Right.
• 20:44
  Speaker A: But no one's going to do the experiment times. You do the experiment 10 times and you're like, oh no, this one's going to be tails. There's 50, 50. Every fucking. The coin does not remember anything.
• 20:54
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 20:55
  Speaker A: Yes. Okay. So that's the whole idea of why we like suck at probability.
• 20:59
  Speaker B: Because we only look at a microscopic.
• 21:01
  Speaker A: Yeah, like, right. To be fair. Basically human history. Like if you go all the way back in time. Our brains evolved from being safe and like learning from things. It wasn't like independent randomness like flipping a coin at all.
• 21:14
  Speaker B: No, it was. Joey wandered off. No, he got eaten by a saber toothed cat. I'm not gonna go.
• 21:18
  Speaker A: I eat these berries, I die or people die. Stop eating berries. Like water source over there dries up. Oh shit. What's happening with the seasons? We need to move our waters. Like there's real. You're using probability in nature so it makes sense. Because the patterns in nature don't like. It's not the same as the coin flip of the experiments that we're doing today. So there's nothing wrong with it. It's how we survived. We just were running on old, I don't want to say old software, but we are, we're running on old software. And the idea of streaks eventually correct themselves isn't technically true anymore, like in the digital age. That's all.
• 21:58
  Speaker B: But I think it, it takes into account what you were saying earlier with the four things that we can control. Right. Which is more on the emotional side of things and that our emotional side of things tries to kind of negotiate or make Sense of the logical side of things. Meaning. I mean, it's not as dire as dying because I ate berries, but it's, oh, I got five heads in a row. Of course I can get another head. Right. Like, we.
• 22:20
  Speaker A: Right.
• 22:20
  Speaker B: I think it goes back. We immediately switch from the logical side to that emotional side you were talking about earlier of trying to convince ourselves, oh, no, it's good. It's positive. It's. Keep going.
• 22:29
  Speaker A: So the trick is, is figuring out when to use your gut instinct and when to apply logic. And that's the hard. That's the hard part.
• 22:36
  Speaker B: But is this part of the survivorship part, then?
• 22:38
  Speaker A: No, not. No, no, no, this is not. That was all just like our brain suck at probability, correct? Yes.
• 22:42
  Speaker B: But I'm saying, like, there's a second piece about survival.
• 22:45
  Speaker A: Yes.
• 22:45
  Speaker B: It's knowing. I feel like maybe it's not, but I would assume it's going between your logical and your emotional side in order to survive.
• 22:54
  Speaker A: Yeah. I guess the whole idea of survivorship bias was really more about, like, history. Like, what is it? History is written by the winners. You don't hear the old. Like, you don't hear the bad parts.
• 23:05
  Speaker B: I see, I see.
• 23:06
  Speaker A: So the whole idea is not actually
• 23:08
  Speaker B: surviving, but that we get the perspective from the winners.
• 23:12
  Speaker A: Right. You're getting the winner's perspective. So if you think of, like, all the famous people, like actors, the entrepreneurs and all, like pro athletes, for every one of those stories, right. There's millions and millions that you don't hear about. Not untalented people, very highly talented people. You just don't hear their story. So the idea is we build up this idea that success looks way more like just pure luck than it actually is. Because in a lot of cases, it's not lucky at all. It's real hard work. Years and years and years of putting in the work.
• 23:47
  Speaker B: I mean, like, example. So, like, the World cup just passed and you hear about all these people who are, oh, well, Messi was just lucky because, you know, he had somebody who was found by the right person. Xyz. You know, Holland's lucky because he's just so tall and he was just athletic and he's just built for this. But I think what people lose sight of is the hard work that they put into it. Right. So it's like, there's a success story.
• 24:09
  Speaker A: There's hundreds of messies out there right now.
• 24:11
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 24:11
  Speaker A: That are trying really hard, putting in a lot of work. And don't get me wrong, I understand. They weren't. Maybe they weren't Just like that. One little one percent. I get it. But, like, you can't discount Messi's work.
• 24:22
  Speaker B: Correct.
• 24:22
  Speaker A: I think that's what you're talking. Or Holland's work. You can't.
• 24:23
  Speaker B: Like, they weren't just lucky. They put in the work.
• 24:27
  Speaker A: They used the four frigging habits. They put in the work and then the star aligned. Yeah, right. But as a result, it goes all the way back to your friend Ali. If you don't put the stupid, like your card in the. In the thing, you're not going to win ever. So it's the same concept.
• 24:42
  Speaker B: So we're arguing there's not some sort of mystical force.
• 24:45
  Speaker A: I'm arg. Yeah. Yeah, that's my argument. Totally. Right. Me and. Me and Rich, we're buds now. I mean, we should have brought Rich on the show. This guy would have been awesome to have. Anyway, shout out to Richard Weissman. Good work. Thank you for all of your hard work on the luck factor. I mean, so here's the thing, right? Like, the whole argument that we're making anyway is that if luck was this quote unquote, mystical force, then we would have nothing to talk about. The show would be over first of all. But it's not, because we all know, for the reasons that we just argued, is that changing the four habits can increase our luck. That's the whole concept. So you know what it is? So it's increasing your luck surface area. How's that? That's what we're doing.
• 25:21
  Speaker B: It's a reframing.
• 25:21
  Speaker A: I like that.
• 25:23
  Speaker B: You can't gainsay casting a wider net.
• 25:24
  Speaker A: You can't gainsay that shit right there. Right. We're casting a wider net. That's what this is. This is about increasing luck surface area. So if there's anything to take away from today, it's that luck loves exposure. It can't find you unless you increase that damn surface area. So go do that. I like that.
• 25:42
  Speaker B: Okay. I have a question.
• 25:43
  Speaker A: What?
• 25:44
  Speaker B: Well, I have multiple questions.
• 25:45
  Speaker A: Wait, what?
• 25:46
  Speaker B: So there's such thing called a luck test.
• 25:48
  Speaker A: There's a luck test?
• 25:49
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 25:49
  Speaker A: I'm over here spouting off science and history and you are looking up luck tests.
• 25:57
  Speaker B: So it's like six questions. Think you can do it? Quick answers.
• 26:00
  Speaker A: I'm going.
• 26:01
  Speaker B: Don't think too much about it.
• 26:02
  Speaker A: I'm going to do my best.
• 26:05
  Speaker B: Alrighty. Ready? What is the luckiest thing that's ever happened to you?
• 26:09
  Speaker A: Meeting Gabby.
• 26:10
  Speaker B: Okay. Well, that was a good one.
• 26:12
  Speaker A: Why is that so hard?
• 26:13
  Speaker B: Have you ever narrowly avoided A disaster.
• 26:17
  Speaker A: Oh, I mean, I'm sure I have.
• 26:18
  Speaker B: I'm sure in the car.
• 26:19
  Speaker A: Right? Like that. I just don't know. But I mean, anything that comes to mind.
• 26:23
  Speaker B: But I think that goes to your point, though, of that you probably have avoided an accident somehow where you're like, ooh, that was a close one. But we don't see it as luck.
• 26:31
  Speaker A: No, we never do. Well, like, I look at, like, the birth of my kids, 10 fingers, 10 toes, all healthy, and every time they came out, Gabby and I would say a prayer and be like, oh, my God, like, how lucky were we? Right. Like, so. So did I narrowly avoid four disasters? Absolutely. I don't. I don't even know. I. That's. That's a hard one to answer.
• 26:47
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 26:47
  Speaker A: Yeah. Good question.
• 26:48
  Speaker B: I mean, you kind of already answer number three. Is meeting your spouse luck or something else.
• 26:52
  Speaker A: So interesting. So I totally. It was the luckiest thing, of course. But, like, I'd say I put myself in a situation to meet her.
• 26:58
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 26:59
  Speaker A: I was doing. I was increasing myself.
• 27:01
  Speaker B: Now, was this, though, before, after you did this podcast that you've changed your answer?
• 27:04
  Speaker A: No, no, no, no. That's B.S. no, I'm just saying in general, I guess I would always adopt the strategy that I told Ruth about, which was got to get out there and do more things. And. Yeah, so I probably increased my chances. But no, man, I'm saying it was God. It was luck. Whatever you want to say. Yeah, that was it.
• 27:21
  Speaker B: Is being born in America luck?
• 27:23
  Speaker A: Being born in America is totally luck. You have no say so in where you're born.
• 27:26
  Speaker B: I thought about this recently.
• 27:27
  Speaker A: It's anything like. I hate that. I have to. Yes. Now, don't get me wrong. What you do with that, I think is super important and incumbent upon you to be excellent and awesome, like, no matter where, and try to beat any odds that you can. But if you're born in America, you're born with a leg up, and you better be thankful for that and use it. So, unfortunately, yes.
• 27:49
  Speaker B: Unfortunately. Yep.
• 27:50
  Speaker A: Yeah.
• 27:50
  Speaker B: Is talent luck?
• 27:54
  Speaker A: No, talent is hard work. There's no question talent is hard work. I think predispose Holland. Yeah, he's. He's huge, right. Certain basketball players. Right. Like, I get it, you're predisposed. But there is no way luck gets you that far. So talent and work, work ethic, all of those things.
• 28:12
  Speaker B: Well, it's working with what you got.
• 28:13
  Speaker A: Working with what you got.
• 28:14
  Speaker B: Working with.
• 28:14
  Speaker A: Because I would argue there's maybe there's not thousands of Hollands out there. There's probably a hundred out there. But he got it. But they didn't. And the reason they didn't might have been the teeny bit of luck. He met the right person at the right time, or the coach saw him.
• 28:29
  Speaker B: Right.
• 28:30
  Speaker A: Or the parents spent a little bit of extra. Whatever it is. I understand. But I would say to get him 86.1% of the way there. No, it was a lot of hard work, and then the luck kicks in.
• 28:40
  Speaker B: I would agree with that one.
• 28:41
  Speaker A: Yeah.
• 28:42
  Speaker B: All right. Well, that was kind of fun.
• 28:44
  Speaker A: How'd I do?
• 28:44
  Speaker B: I mean, I don't know. I think it was a little bit skewed because you've had time to think about. I didn't have time to think about.
• 28:49
  Speaker A: What are you talking about?
• 28:50
  Speaker B: No, like, this episode really structured how you view what luck is, but I thought it was okay.
• 28:55
  Speaker A: I have a question, though. I want to go back to sort of the beginning. So did you buy into this? You can create your own luck, or are you still like. No, this is.
• 29:01
  Speaker B: Both of, you know. But I think overall, all of us could probably say that we were pretty lucky, because I think the majority of what I've realized this episode is that it's. It's all about reframing. So it is genuinely thinking about things. Wow. I'm lucky because xyz. I'm lucky because I am an American versus, you know. Oh, I hate all this politics, and it sucks to be an American entitled.
• 29:24
  Speaker A: Like, we get. We get caught up in our own shit.
• 29:26
  Speaker B: Yeah, right.
• 29:27
  Speaker A: It's reframing. Get out of your own shit and look like. Again, I think Gabby's death taught me a lot. Silver linings. Whatever you want me to say. Like, you got to keep reframing, and I don't have a choice to reframe.
• 29:38
  Speaker B: I think it's better to be glass half full than glass half empty.
• 29:40
  Speaker A: Oh, it's 100.
• 29:41
  Speaker B: There you go. Oh, that should have been a good question, though, for his, like, control group.
• 29:45
  Speaker A: I know. Yes.
• 29:46
  Speaker B: Do you view a glass half empty?
• 29:49
  Speaker A: Let's go. Let's go read the book and find out.
• 29:50
  Speaker B: Okay. Yeah. Okay. Fun facts.
• 29:52
  Speaker A: Fun fact time.
• 29:53
  Speaker B: Is there any fun facts on luck?
• 29:55
  Speaker A: There's a lot of fun facts on luck, actually. Yes. Believe it or not, there are four fun facts that I found on luck.
• 30:01
  Speaker B: Four.
• 30:01
  Speaker A: Four.
• 30:01
  Speaker B: Okay.
• 30:02
  Speaker A: We're doing all four.
• 30:03
  Speaker B: So many. There is a lot. A lot is four. Okay.
• 30:06
  Speaker A: The Birthday Paradox. Number one. Are you ready? You know the Birthday Paradox?
• 30:09
  Speaker B: No.
• 30:09
  Speaker A: You've heard of it? Everybody's heard of this.
• 30:10
  Speaker B: What is that.
• 30:11
  Speaker A: Okay. You okay? In a room full of people, like, odds of like, having a birthday mate or whatever it is. No, this is new to you. Okay, fine. So in a room of only 23 people, there's a 50% chance that two people share the same birthday.
• 30:25
  Speaker B: No way. 23.
• 30:26
  Speaker A: 23, right. You would think, you would think you would need like over a hundred people in that room. But it's like literally one of the best examples of how bad our brains are at putting together probabilities. Yes, that's it. 50% chance, 23 people. Okay, I'm gonna test it out. Test it out. Let's do it. Let's test it out. Number two. Lightning. Your odds of getting struck by lightning are basically zero. Okay, but some people have been struck multiple times, including a guy named Roy Sullivan who got hit by. By lightning seven separate times. Was he looking for it and survived every time? I don't know. Did he increase his luck surface area? Here's the funny thing. Would you argue he's the unluckiest guy in the world or the luckiest guy,
• 31:04
  Speaker B: I guess is the reframe of how you're looking at it.
• 31:06
  Speaker A: Bingo. If I got struck by lightning seven times, I'd say I'm the luckiest guy in the world. That's all I gotta say.
• 31:10
  Speaker B: Better go buy yourself a lotto ticket.
• 31:12
  Speaker A: Amen. Right. Let's do it. All right.
• 31:14
  Speaker B: Again, two things that don't correlate, but, you know.
• 31:17
  Speaker A: Number three is the lottery curse. A huge number of jackpot winners actually end up less happy after interviewed years later. Money solved exactly one problem and created a hundred more that nobody warned them about. They don't even know how to handle their money. Everybody's all over them. They hate it. They wish it wouldn't happen. It's a curse.
• 31:37
  Speaker B: We know it's a curse. Two people who have won big lotto and both. Yeah.
• 31:44
  Speaker A: Here you go.
• 31:44
  Speaker B: Not great.
• 31:44
  Speaker A: I think that's amazing. And again. So it goes back to reframing. All this is reframing. Okay. And finally, serendipity, penicillin, microwaves, post it notes, chocolate chip cookies. All of those things happened by accident.
• 31:56
  Speaker B: Really?
• 31:57
  Speaker A: Yes, Every one of them. It was because somebody was trying to create something screwed up and made these things happen.
• 32:05
  Speaker B: No.
• 32:05
  Speaker A: Yes, absolutely. They were all accidents. Look them all up.
• 32:09
  Speaker B: I'm gonna have to do that.
• 32:09
  Speaker A: I think it's fascinating.
• 32:10
  Speaker B: Yeah, I was gonna say I'm fascinated. Now I know how, like, somebody just wanted, like, a paper and they licked it and just sucked.
• 32:17
  Speaker A: Okay. I don't know what they were trying to create, but they're like, hey, you're supposed to. Let's go. That's it. That's all I got. Fun facts out on luck. Luck in the draw.
• 32:25
  Speaker B: I love it. Well, if anybody wants to learn more stuff, then, about luck, besides reading Mr. Wiseman's book, is there anything else that you have?
• 32:32
  Speaker A: We're just gonna. We're gonna read his book. That's all we're doing. The luck factor. Go develop your four habits.
• 32:37
  Speaker B: Okay?
• 32:37
  Speaker A: And then we're done. And before we just sum episode, if you want the fun facts or you want this summary that Amanda's about to give, deliver to your inbox. DM us, please, on Instagram. We'll send them out to you right away. Thank you so much. Just sum us up, Amanda.
• 32:48
  Speaker B: All right. Well, first off, luck is technically defined as an outcome affected by factor outside of your control. But researchers who've actually studied lucky people found they're not benefiting from more control from the universe. They're just better at noticing the opportunities already in front of them.
• 33:03
  Speaker A: And we now believe that.
• 33:04
  Speaker B: Yeah, we do. Second, there are four repeatable habits lucky people share. They notice. One, opportunities. Two, they trust their intuition. Three, they expect good outcomes. And four, they reframe bad luck as a setup for something better. So it's kind of like a cheat code. Learn it and then utilize it.
• 33:23
  Speaker A: That's the cheat code, people. That's your takeaway.
• 33:26
  Speaker B: Third, humans are bad at probability, which is why coincidence feel like fate, and lotteries feel more winnable than they really are.
• 33:33
  Speaker A: Okay, but here's my question. So, you know, we're talking about Ally, and, like, she puts her name in the hat, all the things. So I can't win the lottery if I don't play the lottery.
• 33:42
  Speaker B: Correct.
• 33:42
  Speaker A: So I should play the lottery. I just shouldn't expect to win the lottery.
• 33:44
  Speaker B: Well, there was always this one saying where it was like, well, you can't win the lottery unless you play.
• 33:49
  Speaker A: Yeah.
• 33:49
  Speaker B: So if you were meant to win, right. You just need to buy one.
• 33:52
  Speaker A: Okay, So I could buy one, right? Don't go crazy. Spend your life saving. Okay, I'm with you. Go ahead. Go ahead. Keep something.
• 33:57
  Speaker B: Fourth, survivorship bias means we only hear from the winners, which makes success look more like luck than it actually is. And finally, you can actually increase your luck, not through superstition, but by increasing your exposure to new people, new places, and new information. Because as we just learned, luck loves exposure.
• 34:18
  Speaker A: You got that right. A little love and luck. All right, There you have it. Dear listeners, we came in today thinking luck was something that just happens. We're leaving knowing it actually is something that you build through character, through courage, through persistence, and through paying closer attention to what's going on around you in this massive world. If we did our job today, you're walking away with hopefully a little less pressure. Not so much wait for your lucky break, but more like hey, just notice more, ask more, show up more and let the rest build itself. As always, hit subscribe Leave us a review. Share it with a friend who keeps saying they're just not a lucky person and need someone to whisper in their ear that they're just not looking up from their phone long enough to find it. Until next time, stay curious and stay open. And remember, the luckiest people you know don't just have better luck than you, they're just better at noticing it.