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Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert looks back on global equity markets for 2025 · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: So it's been a wild ride for global liquity markets
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  Speaker 2: this year. We all know that here Donald Trump wasn't
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  Speaker 2: even president on the first of January. Can you believe
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  Speaker 2: that despite all the volatility, we're not a whisker off
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  Speaker 2: all time highs now as we end the year. Sam
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  Speaker 2: Dickie is with Fisher Funds and is with me tonight, Sam,
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  Speaker 2: Good evening, Good evening, Ryan. What are the key lessons
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  Speaker 2: do you reckon that we should take away from this year? Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: roller coaster.
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  Speaker 3: So in the three things, we were reminded again when
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  Speaker 3: everyone in the market has the same view, it's on
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  Speaker 3: the front page of all the newspapers, it often pays
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  Speaker 3: to disagree and take the other side. So you mentioned it.
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  Speaker 3: On April eighth, a few days after President Trump's Liberation Day,
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  Speaker 3: economists were very very vires saying the risk of recession
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  Speaker 3: was spiking and if you read the newspaper you would
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  Speaker 3: have sold everything that put in time. Headlines were comparing
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  Speaker 3: the looming trade war to remember the Smoot Hawley Act
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  Speaker 3: in nineteen thirty, which raised duties on twenty thousand goods
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  Speaker 3: and arguably turned a recession into the Great Depression. As
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  Speaker 3: it turned out, Trump's bark was worse than its byten,
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  Speaker 3: global equity markets are up forty percent in eight months
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  Speaker 3: since then, which is actually one of the fastest rallies
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  Speaker 3: on record in two hundred years. The second thing is
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  Speaker 3: we were reminded that there are other places to make
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  Speaker 3: money outside of the US, so barring disaster in the
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  Speaker 3: next few days, it's only the third time in fifteen
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  Speaker 3: years that non U S equities outperform US equities. So
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  Speaker 3: Japan is up almost twenty five percent as the stock
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  Speaker 3: exchange is forcing investors to be more shareholder friendly, paid
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  Speaker 3: more dividends. Countries like China and the UK have just
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  Speaker 3: gotten too cheap and are up significantly more than the US.
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  Speaker 3: And the final thing is we've learned again that the
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  Speaker 3: equity market is now extremely concentrated in the US. So
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  Speaker 3: the top ten stocks in the SMP five hundred the
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  Speaker 3: five hundred stock index, make up forty percent of the index.
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  Speaker 3: So it's ten stocks out of five hundred making up
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  Speaker 3: forty percent. That is the most constant and traded ever
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  Speaker 3: and has really interesting future implications for you know, those
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  Speaker 3: those fund managers that are passive investors or index huggers.
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  Speaker 2: Sam, can you give us a sneak peek into twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty six.
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  Speaker 3: So we talked you and I ran and you and
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  Speaker 3: Heather and I back in October about the risks of
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  Speaker 3: the AI bubble popping. Now, the really good news is
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  Speaker 3: we've had a really healthy correction and some of those
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  Speaker 3: perceived AI winners, especially at the risky A end of town.
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  Speaker 3: So companies that we're using tons of debt to fund
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  Speaker 3: this AI capex bonanza are down to lots of Oracles
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  Speaker 3: down fifty percent, core weaves down sixty five percent. So
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  Speaker 3: the point there is it's good news that investors are
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  Speaker 3: becoming more discerning. So with that in mind, as we
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  Speaker 3: sort of peak into twenty twenty six, the marketers shifted
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  Speaker 3: from buy AI at any price to show me the return,
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  Speaker 3: Show me the return on the massive amounts of capital
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  Speaker 3: you're investing. So it's going to be fascinating to watch
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  Speaker 3: whether those huge spenders like Google all have gotten that
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  Speaker 3: message yet from the market. Now, if we take a
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  Speaker 3: step back, the headline price to earnings ratio that the
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  Speaker 3: bluntest sort of valuation ratio for the market and the
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  Speaker 3: US is really really high, extremely high historically, So equity
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  Speaker 3: markets look expensive on the face of it, but that's
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  Speaker 3: really reflective of what we talked about four rhyin some
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  Speaker 3: of those top ten companies are really fully valued, So
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  Speaker 3: companies like Tesla on two hundred and fifty times price
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  Speaker 3: to earnings look pretty ritzy. So the good news is
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  Speaker 3: that blue chip companies, quality companies are the most out
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  Speaker 3: of favor in thirty years, and that's boats really well
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  Speaker 3: for focused investors and spells risk for passive index hugging investors.
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  Speaker 2: So lots to look forward to. Absolutely, Sam appreciate that update.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you, Sam Dicky from Fisher Funds.
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