Latest / The Fourcast / Will the Kurds fight Iran for Trump and Israel?

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Will the Kurds fight Iran for Trump and Israel? · The Fourcast

0:00
If you're an Iranian Kurd, well, of course you're probably quite
0:02
welcome, American. Support, but you'd also be
0:05
rather skeptical about it because you've.
0:07
Seen how? Just earlier this year.
0:09
Your ideological compatriots in in Syria were effectively
0:13
abandoned. That is what has happened in the
0:15
past. The Americans try and
0:16
instrumentalise the Kurds and then they betray them.
0:20
Some people would say that it's better to see the true face of a
0:24
superpower. Regime change.
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They know that the only way they can actually make that happen is
0:29
to send boots on the ground in. I think that would be a
0:33
political disaster for them. Hello and welcome to the
0:38
forecast. I'm Krishna Gurimurphy in Tel
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Aviv. There is a big focus now on
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whether there may be an element of ground war in Iran because
0:47
there is speculation that the Kurds in northern Iraq might get
0:51
involved. It's been sort of denied by the
0:55
Americans, but there is clearly a rationale for the Kurds moving
0:59
into a party of Iran and at least distracting the Iranian
1:03
military. At the same time, the conflict
1:05
is spreading to all sorts of other countries.
1:07
There have been attacks in Azerbaijan.
1:11
The Gulf states continue to come under fire.
1:14
Turkey is still, you know, reeling, I suppose, after drones
1:20
were fired at it yesterday. And there is this growing sense
1:24
that this is a war that is not in anybody's control.
1:29
Our international editor, Lindsay Hilson, is in Beirut.
1:32
Sikandar Kamani is here in Israel, and Anushka Astana is in
1:36
Washington. Let's begin with this whole
1:38
question of the Kurds. Now, the Americans have denied
1:41
that they are trying to arm the Kurds and inspire an invasion.
1:46
And there have also been some voices from that region saying,
1:49
well, we're not going to move anywhere until the skies are
1:53
clear, So what is going on there?
1:56
Why would the Kurds be the answer to a ground war?
2:00
Well, look, I mean, let's reiterate first of all what
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everyone has been saying for a long time, and that's that it's
2:06
very difficult to affect regime change or even perhaps really
2:09
bring a regime to its knees, if not topple it completely through
2:13
air power alone. When you are dealing with a
2:15
regime with the kind of staying force and the kind of history
2:18
behind it of the one in Iran. So it would make sense.
2:22
You can understand why America and Israel would be looking for
2:25
some kind of proxy force on the ground.
2:28
And the Kurds, well, there are Iranian Kurdish groups that have
2:33
been based across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan for a long time.
2:37
They have been fighting against the government, although not
2:41
particularly actively. I have to say it was not a
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particular hotspot, nor are they particularly large.
2:48
We're talking about in the thousands rather than the 10s of
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thousands in the terms of the number of fighters.
2:54
Speculation about their role really grew after President
2:58
Trump had some conversations with Iraqi Kurdistani leaders
3:03
and then was reported to have had a conversation with Iranian
3:06
Kurdish political leader as well.
3:08
And. Reporting suggests that the CIA
3:11
has been working on smuggling in weapons.
3:13
To Iranian Kurdish militia members for some months now.
3:19
The Israelis. Had a close relationship with
3:21
with the Kurds. In Syria, as did the.
3:24
Americans up until recently before abandoning them and, and,
3:27
and that gets to one of the hearts of the problem, which is
3:29
that if you're an Iranian Kurd, well, of course you probably
3:32
quite welcome American. Support, but you'd also be
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rather skeptical about it because you've.
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Seen how just you know. Earlier this year, your your.
3:43
Ideological compatriots in in Syria were effectively abandoned
3:48
after having been used by the Americans as the the main
3:51
counterweight to to ISIS for for many years.
3:54
Can I be the person who takes us back to 1991 when the Americans
3:59
and the CIA primed the Kurds to overthrow Saddam Hussein?
4:04
They trained people. They gave them weapons, and at
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the very last minute they decided that wasn't a good idea
4:11
after all. And so the CIA people, the
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Americans left, and all the Kurds who had cooperated with
4:17
them were slaughtered by Saddam Hussein because that is what has
4:21
happened in the past, that the Americans try and
4:24
instrumentalise the Kurds and then they betray them.
4:27
So this would not be for the Kurds the first time they've had
4:31
this kind of invitation, but they will also have long
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memories. And and as Sakanda points out,
4:38
they have just been dumped by the Americans in Syria, so their
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trust levels must be very low. They always are no friends but
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the mountains. That's what the Kurds always
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say. Just to jump in, I mean, we are
4:48
hearing noises from the figures there on the border that they
4:52
would be willing to engage in this fight, but a lot of
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skepticism from others about how effective really they could be.
5:01
And also a lot of skepticism voiced by other Iranians who are
5:06
anti regime but worry that some kind of civil war that would
5:09
inevitably really erupt could end up in perhaps the real
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fracturing of the country, something they definitely don't
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want to see. And Anushka in Washington,
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they're denying it. Well, I mean, they're not
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outwardly saying it's happened, but those phone calls have taken
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place. When Caroline Leavitt, the press
5:25
secretary, was asked about it this week, she basically
5:29
admitted that this is the sort of thing they're considering.
5:31
And the reality is, if as Seck was saying they want to achieve
5:35
this from the air, and they do, even though they're not ruling
5:37
out boots on the ground, I think it would be a political disaster
5:41
for Donald Trump if it ended up with boots on the ground.
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There is only one way, therefore, to try to get to
5:46
regime change. I know they're now not saying
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regime change on the central goal list.
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That sort of dropped down the list for them.
5:54
But ultimately, Donald Trump said it this week.
5:56
He said the worst case scenario is they replace Harmony with
6:00
someone who's just as bad. And that's what they are looking
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at if they don't manage to foment some sort of, you know,
6:08
uprising within the country. I think I think the problem and
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I was speaking to someone who was in the Biden administration
6:13
looking at these same decisions, is that all the projections that
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America has made in the past about where you end up if you
6:20
strike Iran in this way is with a more hardline administration.
6:25
Actually in a country of 90 million with not an organised
6:29
opposition. It isn't obvious that what
6:32
they're suggesting with the Kurds is going to result with
6:35
what they want. And that's why the Kurds are
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very nervous about it, even if they are willing to try to start
6:39
to ferment something. Lindsay It takes us to the
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central question about regime change and, and to what extent
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it is the a goal and an achievable goal.
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There is a, there is a sort of a difference now as as as Anishka
6:53
points out in the public statements between Washington
6:56
and Israel, Israel mentioned it, you know, right at the top all
7:00
the time. Washington have kind of dropped
7:02
it down the list and aren't talking about it as as much.
7:07
You know, isn't it likely that the Americans will want to drop
7:10
out before the Israelis? Well, the Americans may have
7:14
different goals from the Israelis.
7:17
And as you say, it seems that different Americans have
7:19
different goals. But what we know of Donald Trump
7:23
is that he likes conflicts that are quickly resolved.
7:28
Venezuela was perfect for him. It took a couple of days, the
7:32
leader left, they found a compliant substitute, and on we
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go. And he thinks he's going to get
7:38
a lot of oil from it. But I think that what you have
7:41
to think about with Iran is it's not just a regime, it's a state.
7:45
It's the Islamic Republic. So it's not as if taking the,
7:49
you know, the, the head, the head of the snake off changes
7:52
the snake. The snake remains.
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You have the courts, you have the bureaucracy, you have the
7:59
prisons, you have the whole Islamic system.
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It's not just the government. And that I think is something
8:07
which makes a huge difference because you can't just bring in
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somebody else, I don't know, the son of the Shah Pahlavi to come
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and be a new leader because the whole system is different.
8:20
So you have the Revolutionary Guard.
8:23
They are the ones who are, they're not like an ordinary
8:26
army, which would serve any government, as you would find in
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most countries. They are an integral part of the
8:33
revolution of the Islamic State. And so that makes this idea of
8:39
regime change much more difficult and much more
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complicated. So come to the the Israelis, you
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know, are claiming there's no difference between them and the
8:49
Americans, but it it is increasingly seeming as though
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there is a difference in their ambitions.
8:57
Is there any world in which, you know, the Israelis just carry
9:00
on, even if the Americans don't? I think that's probably unlikely
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because what would? Probably bring the American role
9:08
in this war to an end would be. Donald Trump's fears over global
9:13
oil prices, global gas prices, for example.
9:16
Stuff that. We're.
9:16
Already seeing we're seeing rise.
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Israel's position on this has long been that they want to see
9:24
the the end of the Iranian regime.
9:26
You speak to ordinary Israelis and for them, you know, even
9:29
while some of them at least may have been conflicted over the
9:33
war in Gaza. This war with.
9:35
Iran is something that has pretty much universal support
9:38
across the political. Spectrum as well and that's.
9:41
Because many Israelis believe that a nuclear armed Iran is an
9:46
existential threat. Now, of course, you can debate
9:48
how close. Were the Iranians to creating a
9:51
nuclear bomb is the best route. To preventing that through.
9:55
War or is it through? The kind of diplomatic channels
9:58
that we saw under Obama when Iran signed this Jack power
10:01
agreement and actually stopped enriching uranium for for a long
10:05
time until President Trump pulled out of it.
10:08
So you can have those discussions.
10:10
But certainly I think. For for, for the Israelis.
10:14
Whatever happens now really is something that's in their
10:18
favour. You've already seen a huge
10:20
amount of firepower directed at the regime.
10:23
The Israeli Air Force. Talking about 5000 bombs I think
10:26
already obviously that number going up by the hour effectively
10:30
and so you've seen. The.
10:32
Ballistic missile capabilities badly damaged, presumably also
10:36
their nuclear capacity. Of course, you know the Supreme
10:39
Leader, many other leadership. Figures killed as well, so
10:42
perhaps. You know, the Israeli had this
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term for what they used to do in Gaza.
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It's rather terrible prior to October.
10:49
The 7th you'd say that. We are mowing the lawn.
10:52
With, with our, with our. Air strikes targeting Hamas,
10:56
perhaps it's something that they're doing, you know, in that
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ilk. With with.
11:00
Iran where they're not trying to, well, they know that they
11:03
may not be able to to topple the regime, but they can certainly
11:07
weaken it, set it back years if not decades, imposing a threat
11:11
and it's dominance in in the immediate region.
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Why does regime change slip off the the Trump list so quickly?
11:20
I mean, he mentioned it very upfront on Saturday.
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And then almost immediately the administration started saying
11:28
regime change is not our goal. Well, I think partly because
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they're realising that regime change might not be as easy as
11:33
perhaps they originally thought. And also, when you're listening
11:37
to the motivations of Donald Trump, he doesn't always say out
11:39
loud what he's thinking behind the scenes.
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Look at Venezuela, in the run up to Venezuela, he did talk talk
11:45
about democracy for the Venezuelan people in the weeks
11:48
and months afterwards. He didn't use the word once it
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became very, very clear what his goal was there and it was to do
11:53
with oil. I think in this situation, as
11:56
Sech is saying, really the outcome, the best positive
11:59
outcome that they are now sort of corralling around is the fact
12:02
that they've hugely degraded the missile program, perhaps made a
12:06
nuclear program something that will not get off the ground
12:09
again and also decimated the Navy.
12:11
And those are the three things that they talk about all the
12:13
time now and regime change, they know that the only way they can
12:17
actually make that happen is to send boots on the ground in.
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And as I said, I think that would be a political disaster
12:24
for them. That said, very clear that they
12:27
would still like to see a situation where you ended with
12:30
that, but the complexities of it are much more difficult than you
12:34
thought. And and even if they can point
12:36
to that positivity, which is undoubtedly positive in Israel's
12:39
point of view, many would say the Obama deal was giving you
12:43
that same sort of security. Obviously, Donald Trump himself
12:47
didn't agree with that. But the other thing is they're
12:50
talking less and less about the Iranian people because remember,
12:54
it was only last month that hundreds of thousands of
12:57
Iranians were out on the streets protesting.
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Donald Trump said, oh, we're going to come in and we're going
13:04
to to save you. We are there on your side.
13:07
What are they talking about that now we're less and less.
13:10
And we know that the history of the world tells us that regimes
13:14
do not fall on the whole because people come out and peacefully
13:18
protest. Regimes fall when the men with
13:21
guns refuse to kill the people who are out on the streets.
13:26
And at the moment that is being talked about less and less.
13:29
And I think it's really important to note that the
13:32
internal projections of the American government were that
13:37
this sort of operation would leave with would leave you with
13:40
the IRGC with more control. They thought that this would
13:44
eventually lead to a more hardline regime in Iran.
13:47
Right. Let's talk about the thing
13:49
that's really got so many viewers really worried, which is
13:53
the spread of the conflict and the way that the war is
13:55
affecting people to more and more countries.
13:58
You know why that's happening and where it might go next.
14:02
Lindsay, you know, a lot of people have been tempted to
14:04
describe this as chaos. It doesn't strike me as chaos at
14:07
all. It strikes me as quite strategic
14:09
and and effective. Yeah, I don't think it is chaos,
14:12
but let's look at it from the the two sides.
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So I'm in Lebanon. So what Israel is doing is they
14:19
are bringing the war here to Lebanon, where it's been before
14:22
to try and destroy Hezbollah, which is one of Iran's proxies.
14:25
Now Hezbollah, what they are doing is they're firing into
14:29
Israel. And they said they gave a, there
14:31
was a big speech by their new leader, Naim Qasim last night
14:34
saying that they were doing this in order to avenge the killing
14:38
of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
14:41
So we see it spreading here. But then what about Iran?
14:45
Iran has has decided that the best way to counter the the
14:51
threat or the attacks from the US and Israel is to try and
14:56
strike the, the Gulf countries. Now the Gulf countries, Saudi
15:00
Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and so on, they are all closely aligned
15:06
with America and under Trump particularly closely aligned.
15:10
And the Iranians and the Gulf countries, they've sort of met,
15:13
they've they've never been friends, but they've sort of
15:14
managed to make some kind of peace over over the years.
15:18
And now the Iranians have decided what is best for them
15:21
strategically is to blow all that up because that endangers
15:26
foreign foreigners, particularly Westerners, who are in those
15:30
countries. And it brings those countries
15:33
into the war. But I think that where there is
15:36
a level of chaos is that then you see all these sort of
15:39
extraneous countries being brought in.
15:42
For example, three drone strikes from Iran on an airport in
15:46
Azerbaijan. Now, I'm not quite sure where
15:49
that fits in or why. And then the possibility of of
15:52
and then, you know, strikes, attempted strikes over Turkey
15:55
and then you have Cyprus. And This is why this is so
15:59
dangerous, because although you can start a war, as the
16:04
Americans and the Israelis have done, stopping a war is much
16:07
more difficult. And controlling a war is much
16:10
more difficult because you know, every soldier knows that you
16:15
know the plan of battle rarely survives contact with the enemy.
16:20
Secundra I suppose the question is, is Iran's aim to actually
16:23
spread the war or to get those countries to pressure the
16:28
Americans to stop? Exactly.
16:31
It's something that me and you've been talking about a lot
16:33
over this week, haven't we? Christening.
16:34
It seems that's very much a deliberate strategy.
16:37
Where? Iran thinks that the.
16:39
Best pressure point to place on on Donald Trump?
16:43
Is the Gulf. Countries.
16:44
And that's because one is, Lindsay was pointing out.
16:47
They're close allies. But also.
16:48
Because they're they're they're key.
16:51
Hubs for oil, for gas, we've seen prices soaring on both
16:57
commodities. There are also.
17:00
Places where America has a lot of regional bases as well and so
17:05
and they're not used to this kind of conflict.
17:08
I mean, Israel for example is, but in the Gulf they aren't, nor
17:12
are the. Expats.
17:13
Who live there? Many of whom are Western, so I
17:16
think. Iran's strategy was.
17:18
If we can. Increase the cost.
17:20
On the Gulf, they in turn will put pressure on President Trump
17:24
to end the war sooner rather than later, one Arab diplomat.
17:28
I was talking to said. Actually, look, it's a
17:31
miscalculation by Iran what they've done.
17:34
Is they've really. Rallied the region against them
17:37
and and remember that a lot of these countries had publicly in
17:42
the lead. Up to this war been putting some
17:44
kind of. At least privately putting
17:47
pressure on President Trump not to go down the the military
17:51
route and to try and give diplomacy a greater chance
17:54
because they feared instability here.
17:57
So I mean, I think long term. This could be you know.
18:00
Quite a miscalculation by the Iranians, but they must feel
18:03
that right now. This is, you know, a now or
18:06
never moment. It's do it or die.
18:08
For them. And so they're throwing
18:10
everything they have at kind of pretty much everywhere they can
18:16
in an effort. Just to raise the cost and hope.
18:18
That President Trump draws back because they think if they can
18:22
keep going, keep on with the chaos, the American will will
18:25
bend before they will crumble. It's a variation on the Taliban
18:29
strategy. Where they used to say.
18:31
You have the watches, we have the time.
18:33
But Lindsay, I mean, it's not clear.
18:35
Is it that it's a go down fighting strategy either, you
18:39
know, they're they're not throwing absolutely everything
18:42
at everyone in a way that would invite a massive response, an
18:47
overwhelming response from the Americans, which suggests that
18:51
they are doing everything they can to stay, to stay in place
18:55
and to sort of manage the conflict if that's at all
18:57
possible. Yeah.
18:59
I mean, what they've said is that they are calibrating and
19:02
that they are firing what they have at the top of their
19:05
stockpile at the moment, but they have much more beneath
19:08
that. Now, we don't know whether
19:09
that's true or not. But the other thing they're
19:12
doing is that they're using their proxy strategically.
19:14
So at the moment they're using Hezbollah, which is the proxy
19:18
which is closest to them. But and the one of the points of
19:22
doing that is to partially tie up the Israelis.
19:24
So the Israelis are busy firing here into Lebanon, where I am,
19:28
and that may take some of their resources away from attacking
19:32
Iran. But then you have the Houthis
19:34
from Yemen, and then you have different kinds of Shia militia
19:39
in Iraq. Now, they haven't really been
19:41
deployed yet. And it's possible that the the
19:44
Iranians are keeping them in their back pocket.
19:47
Having said that, I do think there is quite a lot of bravado
19:50
on the part of the Iranians. And I'm not really quite sure
19:54
how much strategic depths they've got, how many missiles
19:58
they've got, how much longer they can keep going for.
20:00
There are some reports which are saying that they are firing a
20:03
bit less now than they were in the early part.
20:06
So obviously they want to make the Americans and the Israelis
20:10
think that they can keep going. They've got a lot more out
20:12
there. They can attack US and Israeli
20:15
assets across the world. That they can use terror
20:18
tactics, they can use everything, and the coming days
20:21
will show whether that's true or not.
20:23
Alicia, we, we've spent quite a lot of time over the last few
20:25
days sort of asking how, how is the war being directed in Iran
20:28
and who by I wonder whether we should ask the same question
20:32
about the United States. You know, because we we've seen,
20:36
you know, apparently strategic decisions being announced by
20:39
Pete Hegseth, you know, going after the man they believe was
20:44
in charge of trying to target Donald Trump in the past.
20:48
I mean, how much is this now operationally handed over to the
20:51
US military? How much is still political
20:53
direction? Oh, well, I think it's
20:56
definitely both. I think Dan Kane has had a very
20:58
important role in all of this. And when you're actually
21:01
listening to it operationally, it really feels like he's the
21:03
person who's taken control. I mean, it's quite something to
21:06
watch Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, as they now
21:09
call him, talk about this because he speaks in a way that
21:13
I've sort of never heard a defence secretary talk before.
21:16
I mean, when he was talking about that killing of the
21:19
person, he said it attempted an assassination on Donald Trump
21:22
back in 2024. He used language like Donald
21:25
Trump has had the last laugh when he was talking about taking
21:29
out the Iranian warship. He said, ah, they thought they
21:32
were safe in international waters.
21:34
He's basically gloating about the idea that they don't care
21:37
anymore about the rules of engagement.
21:39
The thing the issue is not everyone around the president
21:43
agrees with that. And some of them are thinking
21:44
politically about their own futures.
21:46
So we have a situation in which JD Vance, the vice president,
21:50
had argued against this, you know, just before the election,
21:53
he was saying attacking Iran would be a mistake because of
21:56
the cost of it. And already, although the
21:58
Pentagon won't confirm it, when we go to them, people are
22:01
reporting this could be costing the American exchequer a billion
22:04
dollars a day. Then you've got Marco Rubio,
22:06
who's been trying to make and then having to backtrack from
22:10
making the actual legal argument for why they're doing this, this
22:13
suggestion that there was an imminent threat because Israel
22:15
were going to strike anyway. Reports today suggesting he's
22:19
the one who's urging most strongly against boots on the
22:22
ground. And then the ultimate person in
22:23
charge of all of this, no question about it, Donald Trump
22:26
himself with fewer advisors around him than he would have
22:29
had in the past trying to restrain him on this.
22:32
And I think it is really interesting when you listen to
22:34
his press secretary, Caroline Levitt, they're absolutely not
22:38
ruling outgoing further on this in a way that would have felt
22:41
politically difficult for them not that long ago.
22:44
Lindsay, you were nodding. Did you want to come in?
22:46
Yeah, I was nodding that, but I was also because I was thinking
22:48
about the legal side of it. And I'm glad I just mentioned
22:50
that the Marco Rubio trying to, you know, find some kind of
22:53
justification which could be, you know, work in law.
22:57
Because when you go back and let's think about 2003, the
23:00
Americans didn't make an attempt.
23:02
They went through initially the United Nations.
23:05
They did create a coalition. The British were amongst that.
23:09
And then there were many other countries which were amongst
23:11
that. And the same was true in
23:12
Afghanistan. So there was many people said
23:15
that both of those were illegal wars, but there were legal
23:19
arguments which could be made and they brought other countries
23:22
online with them. Now this time there is no
23:24
attempt really to make a legal argument except as you say a
23:27
little bit by Marco Rubio. And the danger of that, and the
23:31
reason why European countries are very concerned is because
23:35
that creates chaos across the world.
23:38
If Western countries say it's illegal for President Putin to
23:42
invade Ukraine, if they fear President Xi Jinping ordering an
23:48
invasion of Taiwan, they have absolutely no legal legs to
23:52
stand on. If the Americans are going
23:54
around in this swashbuckling way, using the brutish language
23:58
that Pete Hegseth has been using, talking about death and
24:01
destruction, saying that they have the right, pretty much to
24:04
do whatever they want and to kill whoever they want.
24:07
And to glory in the idea of killing people As opposed to
24:11
being sober about the seriousness of war, the danger
24:15
of war spreading, the horror of killing people, whether they are
24:19
combatants or civilians. The language we're hearing from
24:22
America is a totally illegal, unlegal language, whether or not
24:28
you can justify what they're doing in law.
24:30
And this changes the whole way the world works.
24:33
Look on this question of international law, Anushka.
24:35
It is very, very strong striking that America just seems to be
24:38
making very little attempts to care about it and it's poo
24:42
pooping the legal concerns of people like Kir Starmer and
24:48
others in Europe. I mean, is there sort of
24:51
universal agreement about that within the administration, let
24:55
alone the rest of American politics?
24:57
And do they not worry that that this is an attitude that could
25:01
come back to bite them? I mean, I think there are
25:03
different opinions on that. And it's clear that they are
25:05
grappling with this behind the scenes to some extent.
25:07
Partly that's why we're seeing the different justifications.
25:11
Marco Rubio trying to make a legal case, others not bothering
25:14
to do so, like is always the case with war.
25:17
You can make a moral argument, you know, as they did with Iraq,
25:20
but they still try to make the legal argument as well.
25:23
Pete Hegseth, we know historically that he wants to
25:27
laugh in the face of international law, frankly.
25:30
And we're hearing more of that in this situation right now.
25:34
I think it is clear that they are trying to argue that there
25:37
is an imminent threat. That debate is being had in
25:39
Congress as well. That's what Democrats and a few
25:42
Republicans are bringing to the floor in the Senate and then
25:46
today in the House. And those arguments are being
25:49
had. But the problem is once you have
25:51
started an invasion, then there's the kind of patriotic
25:55
wash that comes over Congress that doesn't really allow people
25:59
to make those arguments in the same way that they would have
26:02
done before. That said, it is clear that they
26:06
are trying to make the argument of an imminent threat behind the
26:09
scenes. I did find the kind of naval
26:12
warship and the way they blew that up really questionable.
26:15
And I was speaking to a number of military contacts about this
26:18
yesterday, trying to understand what is the legality of that.
26:21
And I think there's two things to say. 1 is it is not legal and
26:24
clearly Britain did not consider it to be legal to fire a ship
26:29
when it is in international waters on the one hand.
26:32
On the other hand, the Americans will be trying to make the
26:34
argument that because they say they faced an imminent threat,
26:38
the entire war is therefore legal and taking out the Navy
26:43
was part of the goals. I mean, Lindsay, the thing that
26:47
struck me about that was was the human reaction and how much the
26:51
world has changed even since things like the sinking of the
26:55
General Belgrano before the the Falklands War, when there was,
26:59
you know, genuine, you know, outrage really and, and, and
27:06
pain. The idea of just the mass
27:09
killing of a bunch of sailors who were sailing, sailing away
27:13
from the Falklands. This was a ship that was 2000
27:16
miles from from Iran. There's been very little
27:20
international outcry really about the idea of sinking that
27:23
ship. Very little.
27:25
And there's been not a lot of outcry about the, the killing of
27:28
so many children in a, in a nursery in Minab in, in Iran as
27:34
well. I think that this is the world
27:38
which the current American administration has taken us
27:40
into. It's a world where mite is right
27:44
and where they they laugh in the face of the suffering of the
27:48
people who they think deserve to die.
27:52
I'm not talking about the children there.
27:53
I'm talking about the sailors on on the ship.
27:56
But some people would say that it's better to see the true face
28:01
of a superpower than for them to dress up what they do in in
28:06
euphemisms. And certainly I don't think the
28:08
Trump administration has any shame in showing its true face.
28:13
What it does do is it makes things very difficult for
28:15
Europe, cause Europe is a place where we rather like euphemism.
28:19
Don't. We exactly.
28:20
Yes, I mean, so come there. I mean, it, it, it, it also
28:22
strikes me that Europe's gonna have to make a much better case
28:26
for international law in a rules based order because at the
28:30
moment both the Americans and the Israelis are just poo pooing
28:33
it and saying, well, what did international law ever do for
28:36
us? And of course the Russians, you
28:39
know, don't care about, you know, international institutions
28:44
either. Interestingly, the Chinese claim
28:47
to be the upholders of, of international rules based order.
28:52
But we'll have to see what happens when it comes to Taiwan.
28:54
Yeah. I mean, I I also struggle to
28:56
think of that many tangible instances where I can think.
28:59
Of countries around the world, really.
29:01
Restraining themselves out of concerns over international law
29:06
as opposed to being seen to have the moral high ground or perhaps
29:12
the economic impacts on. Of their decisions, so I I
29:16
think. Sometimes some of these
29:17
discussions can sometimes be a little abstract, what I'm also
29:22
kind of interested in trying to understand more about.
29:26
Is what? People in Iran really think to
29:28
the extent that you can kind of, you know, summarize the the
29:31
views of a 90 million plus population like that, but
29:35
certainly. Prior to the war.
29:37
Starting we were hearing a lot of voices from people who were
29:41
anti regime and all the research shows that the vast majority of
29:44
the population are anti regime, that they were in favour of
29:48
strikes, that they wanted anything that would help them
29:50
overthrow this regime. After that very bloody
29:53
repression of protesters back in January, now that the.
29:57
Reality of the war is. Kicking in now that we're seeing
30:00
these huge amount of strikes with a human rights group
30:04
that's, you know, widely seen as credit was talking about over
30:07
1000 civilians being killed. I'm not clear what those people
30:11
now. Think we have seen videos of.
30:14
You know, filmed by Iranians. Of blasts taking place.
30:17
Targeting, you know, IRGC revolutionary.
30:20
Guard buildings where they're being.
30:21
Cheered on we saw, of course. People out on the streets
30:25
cheering and celebrating the death of of.
30:27
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Hamane.
30:30
But we've also seen. Large numbers of of pro regime.
30:35
Supporters coming out. Onto onto the streets.
30:37
That's something that surprised, you know, Iranian activists that
30:40
I've been talking to. It even surprised a former
30:42
Mossad, a specialist on on Iran that I was talking to, to hear.
30:47
And and I wonder whether there's been a shift now within the
30:52
Iranian population as a. Result of the reality of this
30:55
war or if as. Some in the diaspora say they
30:59
still want to see the end of this regime no matter what.
31:03
Let's just briefly talk about the the domestic politics here
31:06
as well. I mean, what does Trump think he
31:08
gets from this and how does it affect the midterm elections in
31:13
November? I think the reality of that is
31:15
probably more nuanced than you would think on the surface.
31:18
On the surface, some very, very senior MAGA commentators, or I
31:22
say senior, But I, I, I mean, you know, kind of people like
31:25
Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson, who have huge audiences are
31:28
very, very critical of this, particularly the idea that this
31:32
is not to save American lives, that it's to save Israeli lives.
31:36
And I think that will have an impact and it will feed down.
31:39
But in terms of his voting base at the moment, it's still
31:43
divided very much on partisan, partisan lines, although overall
31:47
the country is wary of this, doesn't think that America has
31:51
made the argument for this invasion.
31:53
I've noticed that Republicans are much, much more likely to
31:56
back the operation than Democrats are.
32:00
I've been speaking actually over the last week to some of the
32:03
type of voters that Trump will be most worried about.
32:05
And I was quite surprised they weren't kind of no, let's
32:07
definitely not going to Iran. They were like, if we go into
32:10
Iran, it has to be very targeted.
32:12
It has to be very focused and what they would be very, very
32:15
uncomfortable with. And that's why I think the, you
32:17
know, administration will be very wary of going there is the
32:21
idea of boots on the ground. If this starts to feel like it
32:24
seeps into a forever war situation, then I think it
32:27
becomes very problematic for Donald Trump.
32:30
But Donald Trump has not shown that he is not interventionist.
32:33
You know, we keep making this point.
32:35
He has, you know, launched strikes at an enormous number of
32:38
countries. Now, he likes the idea of
32:41
showing off the military might of America.
32:43
And as yet, as yet, I don't think it's having a huge
32:47
negative impact on his voting base.
32:49
I think there is a high risk that it tips into that,
32:52
particularly if Democrats can make their arguments.
32:55
Why aren't you focused on the American economy and
32:58
particularly if it starts to affect gas prices?
33:00
And succumbed for Netanyahu? It's a win win, isn't it?
33:04
Absolutely. This is an election year, many
33:06
thought after the October 7th attacks initially at least
33:10
perhaps Prime Minister Netanyahu rather a Teflon figure.
33:15
This was it for him and he wouldn't be able to survive.
33:18
But in fact, you know his his rating in the polls has has
33:21
rebounded and. He it seems very possible.
33:26
If not definite by any means that he will win the elections
33:31
again, certainly some kind of positive outcome from an Israeli
33:36
perspective in regard to this war would would would help him
33:40
get further in that. And you know, I remember seeing
33:45
an interview that you did Krishnan with the opposition
33:47
politician Yair Lapid. And even he couldn't bring
33:50
himself to criticize net what Netanyahu's doing despite being
33:54
the his main political opponent. I think that's very telling.
33:57
Lindsay, let's just gaze ahead a little bit.
33:59
I don't know how far forward your comfortable forecasting you
34:06
know. Where do you think this is
34:07
going, in the short term at least?
34:09
In the short term, I don't see this ending particularly
34:13
quickly. I think certainly here in
34:15
Lebanon, both Hezbollah and the and the Israelis want to keep
34:21
going, and I think that they will keep going.
34:24
I think that from the American point of view, it's very hard to
34:27
see how it stops, since they can't quite decide what their
34:30
objectives are. But I think that what we need to
34:32
bring it back to is Iran and the Iranian people.
34:36
I remember being in Baghdad before that war.
34:40
The Iraqis I knew were desperate for regime change.
34:43
They were desperate for Saddam to fall.
34:45
They had spent, many of them I knew, had spent so long in
34:49
prison they had been tortured. They thought nothing could be
34:52
worse. Similarly, in Libya, all
34:55
Philippians I knew, they just wanted Gaddafi to fall.
34:58
They just said let this be over. This is the worst thing.
35:01
I'm hearing the same from Iranians.
35:04
I know Iranians saying, you know, this is the most terrible
35:08
thing that could ever happen. I understand that and I see
35:11
their point of view. The only thing I would say is
35:14
sometimes you have to be aware of what you wish for.
35:16
Lindsay, on another level, look, I mean, you know, I, I've got a
35:18
lot of people, you know, saying is, is this going to explode?
35:23
Is this World War three? You know, to be honest, I often
35:26
say, well, I think World War 3 began in 2023, you know, and
35:29
didn't you notice? But, you know, the, the, the,
35:33
the stakes in terms of how this could grow and affect, you know,
35:38
even people back home beyond prices still seems very scary
35:44
for a lot of people. I think it is scary because they
35:48
let off something that they can't control.
35:50
It's the way we live in the world.
35:52
It's the way people travel, people go to the Gulf, the
35:55
integration of the world economy.
35:57
People, you know, people my age have children who live in all of
36:00
these different places. How safe is it going to be for
36:04
that to that to continue? We see this, this ship of Sri
36:07
Lanka. We're now bringing in Southeast
36:09
Asia as well. There are so many different ways
36:14
in which a war like this can spin out of control, and that
36:18
affects everybody's life. Thank you all very much indeed.
36:21
That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.