Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 84: Early Signs Point to a Busy Hurricane Season and Here’s How It Could Affect Agriculture with Gary Lezak

Transcript

84: Early Signs Point to a Busy Hurricane Season and Here’s How It Could Affect Agriculture with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 0:03
  Today we have a little bit of a change of scenery.
• 0:05
  I am taking the podcast on the road today for all of you guys
• 0:09
  that are watching on YouTube. If you're listening on podcast,
• 0:11
  you obviously can't see the change in scenery, but we are
• 0:14
  recording from a Starbucks in Wichita, KS today because my
• 0:17
  brother had state track this morning as you will hear in the
• 0:19
  podcast. But we are on the road.
• 0:21
  Little bit change of scenery for you guys, but we're still
• 0:23
  bringing you guys our weekly rather weather report with Gary
• 0:26
  Lezak and the Weather 2020 team. Today we are, we're going to be
• 0:30
  talking heat waves for this summer.
• 0:32
  We're going to be talking June. Holy cow, it's the start of a
• 0:35
  new month in summer. How did that happen?
• 0:37
  We're almost halfway through the year, which is not, I really
• 0:40
  would like to not acknowledge that in the slightest, but here
• 0:43
  we are. We're here with the weather.
• 0:45
  Gary is talking all things what we're going to be seeing in the
• 0:48
  Midwest in the next couple months.
• 0:49
  And then we also touch on hurricane season and our
• 0:53
  predictions for that, what we're going to kind of be seeing
• 0:55
  there. As always, make sure you guys
• 0:56
  check out the show notes, check out that Weather 2020 link, and
• 1:00
  if you love what we are talking about here, you're going to love
• 1:02
  that link even more and all of the dashboards and everything
• 1:05
  that the Weather 2020 team is offering for producers and
• 1:08
  farmers and the agricultural industry.
• 1:10
  So without further ado, let's go ahead and hop into this podcast
• 1:13
  with Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
• 1:18
  Podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
• 1:22
  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
• 1:25
  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
• 1:27
  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
• 1:30
  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
• 1:33
  episode. Well, Gary, happy Friday to
• 1:40
  everyone listening. Happy Monday.
• 1:42
  It is another beautiful day here in Kansas.
• 1:45
  We're here to talk all things weather as we always are.
• 1:48
  And darn it, I don't think I'm ever excited to talk about the
• 1:50
  weather as much as I am when I'm talking to you about the
• 1:52
  weather. So it's a great day.
• 1:55
  That is very. To hang out, I'm in a coffee
• 1:56
  shop. Lauren, you're, you're in a
• 1:59
  coffee shop, I'm drinking coffee.
• 2:02
  So we are really, really on a Friday mood on a Monday, yes.
• 2:07
  So this farmer contacted me from southwest Minnesota.
• 2:13
  He's planted his crops. He's concerned because it was so
• 2:18
  much cooler than the LRC model predicted.
• 2:21
  And as much as I want the LRC model to be 100% accurate,
• 2:26
  remember we are predicting the future.
• 2:29
  So I went and did an analysis for this farmer in southwestern
• 2:32
  Minnesota and our model predicted 3 months ago for May
• 2:37
  for it to be 70% of average rainfall in this area and he's
• 2:41
  literally had 72% of average rainfall.
• 2:45
  It predicted 1° cooler than average.
• 2:48
  It's been 2° cooler than average.
• 2:51
  And this 10 day stretch was much cooler than average and our
• 2:55
  model did not predict that. So I wrote back to him and I
• 3:01
  said hey listen, thank you for the feedback.
• 3:04
  How are your crops doing? And he says everything is fine
• 3:08
  so far, but they're going to need it to rain.
• 3:10
  And I said, I understand. Well, this dry spell and cooler
• 3:16
  and dry is actually good, right? And he agreed that it's actually
• 3:20
  not bad as long as it rains soon.
• 3:24
  So the outlook for his region is still a struggle to be 70 to 80%
• 3:31
  of average rainfall because that's what the LRC does.
• 3:34
  But we're in the phase of the pattern that produces more
• 3:41
  widespread rain. We're in that wetter phase that
• 3:45
  we've been predicting right here on the Cattle USA podcast.
• 3:50
  We said late May into the first half of June is when this wetter
• 3:55
  period is going to arrive, and it's late May into the first
• 3:59
  half of June. Now we're right at the beginning
• 4:02
  of that. So the next 1014 days, there
• 4:05
  will be a series of storms coming across that is directly
• 4:10
  related to what happened between the end of December and the
• 4:14
  first half of January. And though there was a wetter
• 4:17
  period in there. So this is happening.
• 4:19
  There's opportunities for rain and thunderstorms.
• 4:22
  The places that have been getting hit, like southern
• 4:25
  Kansas, southern Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, they seem to
• 4:29
  continue to get hit. The places that get missed seem
• 4:33
  to continue to get missed. This is what the LRC is.
• 4:37
  I want it to do something different for you, the farmer
• 4:41
  out there. I do want that to happen, but it
• 4:45
  doesn't matter what I want. It all comes down to what is
• 4:50
  happening in the cycling pattern and just know these next 15
• 4:54
  days, it may make or break some of the crops out there.
• 4:58
  Some of them might be broken. A lot of them may be made
• 5:01
  because we are going to have those storm systems move across
• 5:05
  heavy rain and thunderstorms. Keep in mind it also comes with
• 5:09
  an increasing severe weather risks.
• 5:11
  They're right on schedule and those are also going to come
• 5:14
  with these chances of rain. That's what I'm seeing.
• 5:17
  Lauren, does that, does that add up to you?
• 5:20
  Yes, it absolutely adds up. As far as just the rest of
• 5:26
  summer, as we go into past June, what are we kind of thinking for
• 5:30
  that as well? Are we going to keep on seeing
• 5:32
  these trends trend? Are we seeing some shifts?
• 5:34
  What What are your thoughts there?
• 5:36
  What happens with the jet stream?
• 5:39
  The jet stream is caused by temperature contrast.
• 5:44
  So during the winter is -50 in central Canada possibly -50° -,
• 5:51
  40° and 90 in Mexico, that's 140° in contrast.
• 5:57
  As we get to the end of June and July, that contrast is about
• 6:01
  40°. Now it's 70 in Canada and 110 in
• 6:06
  the deserts. So you go from 140° contrast to
• 6:10
  40° contrast. So that causes the jet stream,
• 6:13
  the weaken, which ends tornado season.
• 6:16
  There's still could be severe thunderstorms over the summer.
• 6:19
  So we always have to watch for those.
• 6:21
  But more likely, less, less likely to have tornadoes.
• 6:25
  And then the jet stream shifts north and that's where the
• 6:29
  precipitation patterns may shift into Minnesota and North Dakota
• 6:33
  in the next cycle. So we'll see how that goes.
• 6:36
  But that is all in progress. Now.
• 6:40
  What does that mean for possible heat waves?
• 6:42
  We have the potential for some heat.
• 6:45
  And if you look at your dashboard, if you have that or
• 6:48
  you look at the Global Predictor app, look for when the hottest
• 6:51
  temperatures are forecast on that, on that LRC app.
• 6:56
  The Global Predictor Pro is an LRC app that gives you the
• 6:59
  forecast for the next 6 months. You can go look and say hey it
• 7:02
  may be off by a few degrees, but if it shows 88 to 90° in the
• 7:09
  first part of July and then it's 93 to 96° in a five day stretch,
• 7:16
  it might be 100 plus, then it might be a few degrees off.
• 7:19
  Just know that is the most likely time for heat wave when
• 7:22
  you looked at the app I've analyzed.
• 7:23
  Is a couple of heat waves possible this summer?
• 7:27
  So hopefully it comes right after it rains, you know, and
• 7:31
  not before. So there's going to be still
• 7:33
  some timing issues. Is the timing going to be
• 7:35
  perfect? In some spots it might be and in
• 7:38
  others maybe not so much. But we're we're looking at that
• 7:42
  and you can see it on the LRC model when those heat waves are
• 7:45
  most likely. Yes, And I think like the
• 7:48
  biggest emphasis with it is you can see when it's probably going
• 7:51
  to happen and then it's probably going to fluctuate a few
• 7:52
  degrees. Like you unfortunately don't
• 7:55
  actually have a crystal ball sitting in front of you, which
• 7:57
  we would all love if you had that and could provide us with
• 7:59
  the info and be exact and perfect every time.
• 8:02
  But that's just not the reality of Mother Nature.
• 8:05
  She likes to throw some curve balls at us well.
• 8:07
  I do have the crystal ball. I do have the crystal ball in
• 8:10
  front of me though. I'm looking at it right now and
• 8:12
  you're right, it is at 100% accurate.
• 8:15
  It is not. So I don't have the 100%
• 8:17
  accurate crystal ball, but I've got that 75% accurate crystal
• 8:21
  ball and it's and it's showing. I'll take that.
• 8:24
  All these things. Yes, I love it.
• 8:27
  As far as outside of the Midwest, going into hurricane
• 8:31
  season, everything like that, have you guys started to do any
• 8:34
  predictions for those types of weather outbreaks yet this year?
• 8:39
  And if you go to weather2020.com, you can get our
• 8:42
  hurricane season guide. I put a whole preliminary video
• 8:46
  out this week and you can see links to it.
• 8:49
  If you go to LinkedIn, put a link on there on my on my
• 8:52
  profile. So check that out and you can
• 8:54
  watch the preliminary one. If you want the full report,
• 8:57
  it's on our website. It's just $99 a year.
• 9:00
  You can get $149. You'll have the winter severe
• 9:03
  weather and hurricane guide for the next year ahead.
• 9:07
  So we are expecting Texas to the Louisiana area, a target for
• 9:12
  this season to be the biggest target.
• 9:14
  It hasn't been the biggest target for the last couple of
• 9:17
  years. That biggest target has been the
• 9:18
  northeast go from Mexico, Florida Panhandle area and that
• 9:21
  has been the area that's been hit.
• 9:23
  So this hot spot of Texas and Louisiana and the East Coast of
• 9:27
  Florida, we got to watch the East Coast of Florida this year,
• 9:30
  not the West Coast this year. Those are likely the biggest
• 9:34
  hotspots. The LRC remember this year
• 9:37
  cycling every six weeks, right? So if there's a tropical storm,
• 9:42
  let's say there's some of the models have one forming this
• 9:45
  next coming week. If something forms, usually at
• 9:49
  this time of the year, they aren't powerful, it's not going
• 9:51
  to be a major disaster. But if one forms and moves into
• 9:55
  Louisiana, let's say, remember it's a six week cycle.
• 9:58
  So six weeks or especially 12 weeks from then, let's say
• 10:02
  something happens June 10th. July 10th is 30 days.
• 10:06
  August 10th is 61 days. August death would be 81 days so
• 10:12
  that if there is a tropical storm that hits Louisiana or
• 10:15
  Texas or forward or wherever in the next 10 days, just know at
• 10:20
  the end of August when we get close to peak hurricane season,
• 10:23
  the probability of another one in that same spot is actually
• 10:27
  84% based on analysis of 25 other previous hurricane season.
• 10:33
  So it hasn't happened yet, but when you hear hear about an
• 10:37
  earlier tropical storm, it means it may actually happen bigger
• 10:45
  later in the season. Hurricane Katrina was a major
• 10:48
  disaster. Before Hurricane Katrina, you
• 10:52
  had hurricane, you had Tropical Storm Arlene, OK, before major
• 10:57
  Hurricane Harvey that came into Corpus Christi in Houston, we
• 11:01
  had Tropical Storm Cindy that was almost in the exact same
• 11:05
  spot. These happen all the time, so
• 11:09
  that's what we'll be looking for.
• 11:11
  Look for that in the next few weeks and when they happen,
• 11:14
  we'll talk about it. But yeah, there's going to be
• 11:16
  that Texas, Louisiana area, which is interesting.
• 11:19
  If something comes into Texas, the chances of moving out
• 11:22
  towards the Plains and bringing some summer rain is also
• 11:25
  possible. Yeah, absolutely.
• 11:26
  Especially especially as they are those, if they are those
• 11:29
  bigger name storms and stronger, they're obviously bringing up
• 11:33
  more water with them as they continue to move up into the
• 11:36
  Midwest. Absolutely.
• 11:37
  Any other highs, lows, anything else you're seeing in the
• 11:40
  weather this week, Gary? Just a severe weather potential.
• 11:43
  Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, maybe there's a couple systems coming
• 11:48
  our way. Beneficial rainfall, but maybe
• 11:52
  maybe some severe weather too. Perfect.
• 11:54
  Absolutely. And to all of you listeners out
• 11:56
  there, make sure that you go check out our show notes.
• 11:58
  We have that exclusive Cattle USA link for you guys down there
• 12:01
  to get that Weather 2020 dashboard.
• 12:03
  Go get that global Predictor app on your phone.
• 12:05
  It is so handy to have and for if you just want the average one
• 12:10
  out there, that's just like a monthly thing.
• 12:11
  It's less than a coffee. It costs less than my Starbucks
• 12:14
  refresher that I have right here so.
• 12:16
  It's. Absolutely worth it and we have
• 12:18
  that link down in the show notes for you guys.
• 12:20
  Yes, I got a refresher. I I already had a large coffee
• 12:23
  this morning and then another coffee so I felt like it was.
• 12:26
  What is in there? Maybe not the smartest idea to
• 12:29
  have another coffee. It's, I don't know, it's
• 12:31
  strawberry. It's a strawberry acai
• 12:33
  refresher, whatever that means. I'm not sure what's in here.
• 12:36
  It's strawberry and some juices and.
• 12:39
  So in other words, it's whatever.
• 12:41
  Whatever it is, it's pretty good.
• 12:42
  You feel good. It is.
• 12:45
  I do. I feel good.
• 12:46
  I feel good. It's it is quite refreshing.
• 12:48
  It's not quite as drying as coffee, maybe not as
• 12:51
  dehydrating. Maybe I'm hydrating myself now
• 12:54
  good. Or I'm just making myself think
• 12:56
  that I'm I need to. Dehydrate.
• 12:58
  Go drink some water. I need to hydrate myself because
• 13:00
  I'm going to have a couple martinis today.
• 13:02
  Don't tell anybody I'm going to have a couple.
• 13:06
  No one, no one has to know. No one has to know.
• 13:07
  I had AI had a couple espresso martinis last night and it was I
• 13:12
  haven't had an espresso martini in a long time.
• 13:14
  And I will say that the two that it was girls night last night.
• 13:18
  So we went to a new Mediterranean place in Manhattan
• 13:21
  and it was chef's kiss. It was amazing and I had a
• 13:24
  couple espresso martinis. I will say I got back to bed
• 13:27
  that night and I laid in bed for probably a solid hour before I
• 13:30
  could fall asleep. There you go.
• 13:31
  I love the taste of an espresso martini, but it is it's a high
• 13:35
  and low at the same time. It's hard for me to fall asleep.
• 13:38
  It's awesome. That means it was made.
• 13:40
  It was made right. It was made right and the foam
• 13:43
  on it was perfect. I the picture was amazing that I
• 13:47
  took of it. It was, it was great.
• 13:48
  It was high quality. I I refer to my espresso
• 13:51
  martinis as my adult version of my Red Bull vodkas that I had
• 13:56
  when I was in college. Wow, yeah, it's definitely
• 14:00
  better. They'll make them right.
• 14:01
  It's better than a Red Bull vodka.
• 14:02
  Yes, it definitely is. It definitely is.
• 14:04
  It was so worth it. So I.
• 14:06
  Have the Red Bull also dehydrating myself.
• 14:07
  Yeah, I I've done Red Bull vodka.
• 14:10
  They're delicious, they're delicious.
• 14:12
  They're just maybe not the best for you, maybe not the best for
• 14:15
  your cardiovascular health, but neither here nor there.
• 14:18
  We're gonna get off of here and Gary and I are gonna go enjoy
• 14:22
  martinis each. I'm going to lunch with my
• 14:24
  sister-in-law after this, so I'm gonna go probably enjoy a
• 14:26
  martini there and it's awesome. It's Friday, and we hope.
• 14:29
  That we are bringing our Friday. We'll compare notes.
• 14:33
  I love it. That sounds great.
• 14:34
  Absolutely. I hope that to everyone
• 14:36
  listening, we are bringing our amazing Friday energy over into
• 14:38
  your Mondays and that y'all have a great rest of your week.
• 14:41
  And we will see you all tomorrow on another episode of the Cal
• 14:44
  USA Daily podcast. Have a good one y'all, we'll see
• 14:47
  ya.