Latest / CRYPTO 101 / SpaceX IPO Forecast: Biggest Opportunity or Biggest Trap? Plus Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Transcript

SpaceX IPO Forecast: Biggest Opportunity or Biggest Trap? Plus Bitcoin Technical Analysis · CRYPTO 101

0:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Alright everyone, welcome back to the run-down, a historical run-down today because SpaceX is about to become the most valuable company to ever go public Ever in the history of the stock market and Elon Musk could be the first trillion air tomorrow when this thing goes live, but there's still
0:25
[SPEAKER_02]: burning, billion dollars a year at SpaceX.
0:27
[SPEAKER_02]: So here's what's actually going down in the eye biggest IPO history.
0:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Brendan's here to join me.
0:33
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to break down SpaceX.
0:35
[SPEAKER_02]: What we think's going on with it, is it a buy, is it a sell?
0:38
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, who's to say, really?
0:39
[SPEAKER_02]: This is just a monumental thing.
0:42
[SPEAKER_02]: The news flow is absolutely buzzing about it.
0:45
[SPEAKER_02]: But we got some insider tips and tricks and just an overall thesis about the SpaceX IPO that we're going to break down for you here.
0:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to go over the new inflation data.
0:54
[SPEAKER_02]: To put the charts and do some technical analysis with you and then go over some stuff that we've seen in the news around Bitcoin, Ethereum and some other altcoins.
1:03
[SPEAKER_02]: So stick with us.
1:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Give this video a like.
1:05
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're new, please subscribe and welcome to the show, Brendan.
1:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you excited for the biggest IPO in stock market history?
1:12
[SPEAKER_01]: sighted man, listen, I'm a fan of Elon, I'm a fan of SpaceX, maybe that's controversial, right, I'm not a political thing, but he's built a lot, he's probably, he has to be one of the best entrepreneurs of our generation of, maybe in history, but I'm excited man, listen, they're one of one company, they are the premier space company, when it comes to things like they are the most advanced hands down, better than you know, was it blue origin, better than
1:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, NASA better than any space agency out there.
1:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think when you're coming and you're looking at what could be the future of not just like space travel, but also space business.
1:50
[SPEAKER_01]: It's an exciting thing that kind of look out for here.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be like you said the largest IPO in history looks like it'll be around the two
1:57
[SPEAKER_01]: really in dollar IPO mark, which is wild.
2:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that comes out to like 90 to 100 times their earnings or revenue, I was looking at something like that, which is also a wild number, like you said a lot of debt, but tons of stuff to be excited for, and you got some big IPOs that are following this up, right?
2:17
[SPEAKER_01]: open AI not too far behind then a little bit later.
2:20
[SPEAKER_01]: You're also probably going to have and the topic which is going to come out.
2:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So man, I'm stoked.
2:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Listen, there's a lot going on.
2:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and everything too.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But big day, big day for investors and traders around the world.
2:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be probably a big couple of months here.
2:36
[SPEAKER_02]: yeah and it's something to track and again we've been kind of forecasting this for a little bit that hey when this when a huge IPO like this again the biggest ever happened it's gonna pull money from other things and you've seen that a little bit just kind of around the you know semiconductors the socks the S&P just a little bit of a dip here and obviously those markets have been super super hot but dude
2:56
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... you know bitcoin me going down we've been covering that could this be a reason uh... be careful i actually just tweeted this out uh... i mean silver was down i think forty something percent from its high i was actually asking i'll pull this to eat up i didn't put it on the sheet for any percent
3:12
[SPEAKER_02]: It's almost 50% and so I thought, you know, for the viewers, I was like, I wanted to do my part and keep everybody safe.
3:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I asked Senator Warren to please draft legislation to prosecute the silver industry immediately.
3:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And for what further damage an injury to silver, because it's down 46% from its eye, I thought this was a safe haven.
3:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, the markets are a little bit if you will frothy, a little bit fun, but it all leads to the SpaceX IPO.
3:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And I wanted to give some stats, we pulled some stats that we wanted to share with everybody.
3:42
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we can kind of give our take, Brendan, of like, hey, how excited are we?
3:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Is it something, you know, again, nothing we say here's personal financial advice, just a couple friends talking markets.
3:51
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think it's worth breaking down kind of our individual opinions, because that's what people come to the show for.
3:57
[SPEAKER_02]: So, historic.
3:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go over the pricing.
3:59
[SPEAKER_02]: If for tomorrow, I just looked it up right now.
4:01
[SPEAKER_02]: It's sitting about 135 and it's going to begin trading Friday June 12th.
4:06
[SPEAKER_02]: It's expected to raise $75 billion at a 1.77 trillion evaluation.
4:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So, this company is made up of a different couple things, right?
4:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So, star links in there.
4:18
[SPEAKER_02]: You got the Starship launches, XAI.
4:21
[SPEAKER_02]: It's all kind of...
4:22
[SPEAKER_02]: yeah put together to be there so you have a couple different businesses quote unquote that they're trying to run starlink is the near term growth engine um a lot of momentum for starlink on airplanes i'm going on a bunch of flights coming up i'm really hoping i get starlink on one of the uh flight set i'm going to be taking but again just as kind of a consumer product that's been growing um musk holds 42% of the equity but keep in mind folks 82% of the voting power
4:50
[SPEAKER_02]: via class B shares.
4:51
[SPEAKER_02]: This makes space X a controlled company.
4:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, it's really just kind of similar to Tesla, right?
4:58
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a bet on Elon and in the future, the company kind of rides on him because he has 82% of the voting power power.
5:06
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is
5:06
[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of fun.
5:07
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of bullishness around it, but we also want to highlight some maybe some risks and and some definitely the height valuation around it.
5:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's extremely strong demand.
5:18
[SPEAKER_02]: It's over subscribe.
5:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I heard like, I think it was like four, five, six, seven times over subscribe.
5:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It keeps going up.
5:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, so even though Elon Musk is going to be the first trillion air, the valuation is 95 times branded 95 times, 20, 25 sales, um, and again, with the starships and everybody's seen the clips of, you know, landing the reusable rocket.
5:40
[SPEAKER_02]: That was unbelievable engineering, but right now it's just it is a, it's a, you know, it's not a profitable endeavor doing that type of stuff, uh, making a bets on going to the moon,
5:53
[SPEAKER_02]: occupying Mars.
5:54
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, these are futuristic dreams.
5:56
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's interesting to have that end of the spectrum along with Starlink and then kind of X-AI in the middle and then hey, like there's a couple talks about are they going to buy Tesla and merge this all together with robots and AI.
6:08
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like it's unbelievable.
6:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So Brendan, after teeing those up, let's get Brendan's take number one, obviously you're excited for the IPO.
6:16
[SPEAKER_02]: But what?
6:17
[SPEAKER_02]: What's your thoughts around the investment strategy or trading this give give our listeners obviously we have scale of, you know, novice investors to some experts so so give your take to the people.
6:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, listen, I'm excited, right?
6:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I've made that clear, I'm excited.
6:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is gonna have a massive future.
6:34
[SPEAKER_01]: The question for me becomes, is it smart to get into this thing at launch over a $2 trillion valuation?
6:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Long term, I think that's a cheap value for it, right?
6:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not debating that.
6:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Short term, I think that there are some risks here.
6:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Most notably, right, it's coming in.
6:53
[SPEAKER_01]: at an extremely high valuation.
6:56
[SPEAKER_01]: The highs that we've ever seen for an IPO over two trillion dollars, it's a while, right, 95% or 95 times their annual sales, also a pretty big number.
7:05
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing that probably think about in regards to this is that it's launching a little bit differently than other IPOs.
7:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I think 30% of the offering is going to go to retail investors or retail traders, usually that's drastically lower.
7:23
[SPEAKER_01]: This is going to be a lot bigger, so a lot more money is going to go towards retail hands, which are a little bit more volatile.
7:29
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing about this is that the way that inciters or early investors or employees can sell is also run differently.
7:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Typically, there's like longer vesting schedules, this one's a little bit shorter.
7:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So starting right after the one month mark, you can start having some of these early investors and employees and inciters
7:51
[SPEAKER_01]: or maybe 20 to 30% ish of their shares that they have, and so right around like once you get to the one month mark they get their first unlock, then you have like I think it's like the two month, the three month, so on and so forth like Q2, Q3, it starts expanding and
8:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Insiders can sell.
8:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So what you're going to have here is this thing that's a record valuation.
8:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You have a lot of people who went in here.
8:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Even people that weren't big.
8:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I know of some people that work at SpaceX and, you know, they're not big, high level individuals.
8:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're fairly young guys like me.
8:29
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, they're getting offered
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: For my understanding, tens of thousands of dollars in annual comp.
8:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you go and you do that for a couple of years, and you look at the valuation growth that it's seen from billions to trillions, you know, these are probably guys in their late mid to late 20s, early 30s, that now all of the sudden have hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions of dollars.
8:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're being told, hey,
8:55
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to have hundreds of thousands of millions of dollars available in this just from the last couple of years and you're going to be able to start selling this one month in.
9:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Those guys the odds are they're going to do some selling they just are so that the complexity here is you're going to have this at a record valuation.
9:13
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to have a lot of shares in in selling pressure on lock after the first one two three months and the odds are.
9:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Those people are going to take profits.
9:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Some of those early investors are going to be up 100x 1,000x.
9:26
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of these everyday people that are working in nine to five jobs that now have hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars in liquidity available, they're also going to do some selling pressure.
9:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a unique dynamic here where I think, again, people are going to look to take profits.
9:39
[SPEAKER_01]: My fear is that the...
9:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Early buyers could be the exit liquidity, a lot of the time with early IPOs.
9:46
[SPEAKER_01]: You see they launch, maybe they have a big moment at first, they skyrocket up.
9:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they come down to consolidate for a bit.
9:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you've seen that in a handful of them.
9:55
[SPEAKER_01]: You've seen it in Robinhood, you've seen it in Palantir, you've seen it in Circle, you've seen it in like the list goes on.
10:03
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of these that have done similar things, and so that's my fear here is that maybe you have some early volatility to start, but once those insider starts selling, you could have these early buyers, the exit liquidity for the people who have had shares for a while.
10:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the things I'm considering here, again, long term, I'm bullish on it.
10:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to own this thing long term.
10:25
[SPEAKER_01]: My thought process is,
10:27
[SPEAKER_01]: If we get a dip and there's maybe we don't right if we get a dip.
10:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to do a buy of the dip on this thing I've got to say I'm hesitant to do buying around the $2 trillion valuation I think there is a world where we probably get a deeper buy that's that's probably significantly lower than that in terms of market cap and That's where I would look to capitalize on this.
10:48
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what I'm looking to do but No no skin in the game yet for me
10:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think I put a request in to get some pre-IPO shares just to just say I did it just to be in the game, but my I agree with you on the selling is like, hey, there's, whether it's the, you know, the early investors, the early venture capital people that have been locked up for five, 10, 15 years, you know, that's, that's, that's.
11:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Not to say that they're even going to sell all the shares, right, but just, you know, you're going to take some off the table at some point I believe and then like you said, you know, the employees, it's life changing money, it's life changing money and this is a funny tweet.
11:29
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be all of us with the lunch lady on her yacht and the golf after the idea of this live, I thought that was a great one.
11:36
[SPEAKER_02]: That one made me laugh and then again, you got to look at
11:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's market conditions for such a large stock like that.
11:42
[SPEAKER_02]: I think, you know, I was looking at some stats of other IPOs and like Robinhood comes to mind.
11:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Robinhood launched everybody was super bullish about it.
11:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And that went, I think that launched it like the 40s or 50s and went all the way down to 10 or 8, you know, we covered it on this show and then, you know, the famous clip of me saying that.
12:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So like that was, you know, an 80% drawdown, I think Uber lift.
12:05
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's a lot of different companies that we all know and love today that are super successful stocks that didn't necessarily IPO well and that obviously is, you know, when did they go live the market and then the bear market that happens after that at all kind of ads up so.
12:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I agree with you.
12:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you got to take caution here.
12:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It's definitely going to be everybody's going to be in there.
12:26
[SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be long-term investors going to be traders.
12:28
[SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be gamblers.
12:29
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to, you know, it's going to be crazy.
12:31
[SPEAKER_02]: There, they're already launching a 2x leverage ETF.
12:36
[SPEAKER_02]: The day it goes live.
12:37
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where we are in this world.
12:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So happy investing, happy trading, just again, a monumental type of a monumental type of date for the largest IPO in history.
12:50
[SPEAKER_02]: So congrats to everybody that works at SpaceX.
12:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Congrats to all the pre-IPO investors.
12:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, it's going to be a great day in a fun day.
12:59
[SPEAKER_02]: As we transition, we want to talk about some general markets.
13:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Some interesting things that we cover here.
13:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Next week, we have,
13:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Kevin Worsh's first press conference.
13:08
[SPEAKER_02]: That is going to be must watch.
13:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to try and get and Brian, if you want to join us, you're more than welcome.
13:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Brian and I usually do the live press conference.
13:16
[SPEAKER_02]: We may be put some bets on the betting markets of the dimensions, have some fun, but also listen and break it down.
13:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Because sometimes there's been market moving events.
13:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is must watch next week.
13:27
[SPEAKER_02]: It's hard to think of a...
13:29
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... uh... more recent must watch fed meeting uh... but the data keeps coming out in all year and a hand up you know we gotta admit when we're right because we're right a lot but we got a member wrong and i i thought going to the year the data you know has changed your lot of change your opinion but i remember at the end of your show i i said i was like yeah they were going to get
13:47
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, some ray cuts here, maybe three, four, maybe more than what's priced in.
13:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And that has been, again, this is pre-war, so there's no war.
13:54
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no one's there.
13:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, the game is totally changed.
13:58
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you're allowed to change your opinion as an investor and a trader.
14:01
[SPEAKER_02]: But I didn't see the work coming, obviously, back in December.
14:06
[SPEAKER_02]: So, the data's changing, Brandon, you brought this to the table today.
14:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So, don't you break it down with the new data that is changing and thus rate cuts,
14:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, what we've seen here is you're right, the data is changed.
14:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We, I think all of us really kind of came into the year and we're saying, hey, you know, we were coming off the 10, 10 crash.
14:26
[SPEAKER_01]: There was some turbulence, obviously some negativity.
14:28
[SPEAKER_01]: What we were looking at the horizon and saying, hey, the macro really hasn't changed.
14:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking at Raycuts.
14:33
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to get a new Fed share.
14:35
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be more dovish.
14:36
[SPEAKER_01]: That's probably going to even increase to more Raycuts than people who had priced in originally.
14:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and then like you said, there's been a couple of curve balls here that has changed that now what you get as the result of you know some geopolitical conflicts and just some other things that are just happening right inflation going up.
14:53
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of like what this gets around to so this is just saying hey we had CPI earlier this week we just had PPI, um, which is the producer's price index come out here.
15:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And you had PPI increase from 6.5% year over year versus the estimated 6.4.
15:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So higher than expected there, you had the PPI for a month of a month, come in at 1.1%, versus the estimated of 0.7%, so that's coming in higher.
15:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you did have core however, which remains like a pretty big talking point core inflation, you know, wherever it may be is continually coming in lower.
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's saying, if you're factoring out some of the volatile food and energy sectors, inflation really isn't as bad as people expected to be.
15:36
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only until you factor in the volatile food and energy sectors, um,
15:41
[SPEAKER_01]: that you really do get the true inflation that we're seeing here.
15:44
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why people argue that it's transitory.
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And what that means is that they're saying, once this war and stuff goes away, once the straight-of-war news reopens, all this goes back down.
15:55
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what transitory essentially means.
15:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that once this conflict and stuff ends, all of this stuff comes crashing back down and goes back to normal.
16:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the difference here.
16:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, you're seeing cornflation.
16:06
[SPEAKER_01]: be fairly fine, but, you know, normal inflation, whether it's CPI or PPI here, coming in higher than expected in worse than expected.
16:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So what does that mean for us as investors?
16:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, this kind of goes back to the point where you're just talking about, which is that.
16:22
[SPEAKER_01]: If this remains the case, it's going to call some issues.
16:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Because now we are looking at probably two rate cuts this year.
16:27
[SPEAKER_01]: People saying, like myself, think, hey, we could get more than that.
16:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Now this talks and they're actually pricing in a rate hike on the year.
16:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So zero cuts and maybe a hike instead of cuts.
16:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So now this, and that's being priced in as a possibility on the table.
16:44
[SPEAKER_01]: That has historically not been a good thing for the crypto market.
16:47
[SPEAKER_01]: The crypto market likes rate cuts.
16:49
[SPEAKER_01]: The financial sector, you know,
16:51
[SPEAKER_01]: It likes rate cuts, risk assets, like rate cuts, because businesses can borrow it cheaper prices, etc.
16:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And that has a ripple effect that goes down the line.
16:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why this matters, right?
17:02
[SPEAKER_01]: It's because if inflation is getting worse, then there's going to be less chance of rate cuts in a higher chance for rate hikes.
17:09
[SPEAKER_01]: If there's a higher chance of rate hikes, then risk assets can tend to perform worse, that can be a risk, and then you have, again, something like crypto here, which is being somewhat affected by this, and I think that's the way to look at it.
17:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why we bring it up here.
17:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the macro is not, you know, you don't want to look at this and be like, oh my gosh, I'm going to make every financial decision all today based off this one data point, but you need to consider it and kind of the effects that it could have on the market, which is one of the things that we want to like just digest here.
17:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, our job is to go through all the noise, all the news, all the everything, explain it in a fairly easy to understand manner, talk about the pros and cons of how it could affect us and explain it.
17:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And so again, better to be prepared and understand what's happening and why it's happening.
17:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's really why we bring it up.
17:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Great points, great points, let's jump into the charts, because again, the SpaceX IPO inflation data and just a hot market for AI and a down market for Bitcoin.
18:08
[SPEAKER_02]: It's always good just to check in.
18:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't have to do too much time just do the high level stuff.
18:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And then next week, we'll be back with me and you on Friday for a full technical analysis.
18:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll be good to do that after a week of the IPO, because I feel like stuff right now is a little bit,
18:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of at least chilling for the moment, but we'll definitely come back so mark your calendars next Friday I'll be back doing a deep dive on the charts Yeah, well, you know Bitcoin here still following the breakdown right we'll track this for a while So and hey ever since the old time high basically move down bear flag move down Bear flag move down bear flag move down and this is no exception another bear flag via one of these rising channels on the charts
18:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty clear rejections on for Bitcoin, rejected its prior consolidation range, former support, now used as resistance in here, rejected the 200-day moving average, which is the yellow line, the anchored V-wop, which is the orange line, the top of this bear flag that it was in, you know, this little white line that we have, rejected all these key levels, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line, and then we have the red line
19:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Hit the top of the bear flag, crash down through all of its major moving averages, broke down through support of the bear flag itself, and then that's when you really started to see the acceleration once the bear flag broke, which is
19:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a little wiggly white line down here to show hey we actually did break lower than our prior swing low or prior cycle low back in February.
19:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So we broke a little bit lower from 60,000 down to around 59,000 so slightly lower low happening in here.
19:47
[SPEAKER_01]: However we really didn't close below 60 k for the most part.
19:51
[SPEAKER_01]: We are closing around 61,000 ish which is again still the lowest
19:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, holding around our prior lows, which is something to note.
20:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So the big question here now is like, well, is that the absolute low?
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that the cycle low?
20:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's too early to say, right?
20:10
[SPEAKER_01]: We just came in on this low last Friday.
20:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't even been a one week of consolidation.
20:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we need a little bit more of that.
20:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we'll kind of see, I think we need to see what this is going to be.
20:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this going to be a bear flag via a penit?
20:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this going to be another kind of rising channel bear flag?
20:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe we get something bullish out of here.
20:29
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not sending triangle right there's a number of different ways it could go I think you have to lean a little bit cautious at an area like this.
20:36
[SPEAKER_01]: The downtrend is very clearly bearish right the trend is not our friend over the last six to nine months
20:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you got to be a little bit careful at this area and then the other thing is that historically you know kind of with bear flag You get breaks to new lows here you have a bear flag break in the new low bear flag break in the new low Bear flag break in the new low here what we have is this bear flag this rising channel with a break
21:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Excuse me, to the lows, but not yet to a new low, so I think that remains like a big question at the forefront of my mind is well, are we going to break get that break to new lows on Bitcoin technically speaking you got a little bit, but you know why it's 1% difference about so nothing too too crazy over here and I think it kind of leaves that ideal on the table.
21:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, there's the possibility
21:28
[SPEAKER_01]: that new lows could be something that's possible, which is why I want to be just again a little bit cautious, a little bit safe.
21:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going, you know, yellow all in here.
21:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to make sure I got some cash on hand and stuff.
21:39
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
21:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, yeah, I think you got to consider this, you know, to the downside here, I guess the other things to look at is that you do have an anchor to view up from the prior cycles, uh, lows, so back from 2022, and if you do an anchor to view up from there, you have that right around the high 50s, um, in terms of Bitcoin's price, and then you also have the 200 wheat moving average, which has been a pretty big historical zone as well.
22:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Any of the 200 week moving average on Bitcoin, which has been a big bottoming point in the past, right around the low 60s high 50s as well.
22:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, we've used that as support in a bottoming point in 2015 and 16 and 2018 and 1920.
22:20
[SPEAKER_01]: 2022, we came below it, but was still a bottoming point, and now we're kind of back at that zone again.
22:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I would be looking at this and saying, hey, you know, I think there's a lot of long-term value that comes out of us being around this area.
22:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we go a little bit lower that doesn't change my thought process, which is that historically you look for value at or below the 200 week moving average at some of these key levels.
22:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So that kind of makes me want to be a buyer of Bitcoin, especially under 50,000.
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's something that I'm looking at.
22:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And one of the things we haven't talked about in a while, Tvo is that if you look at how Bitcoin has performed once it's at a 50 to 60% retracement, the odds of it being profitable a year later is something that is really interesting.
23:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to throw this up on the charts that everyone can kind of just see this number, but you can see that when Bitcoin's at a 50% drawdown, which if you look at it one year later, based on historical data, it has an 89.8% win rate.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's saying if you're buying Bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or worse, and you look back, you know, or excuse me, you look forward to
23:37
[SPEAKER_01]: The average return on that one year later is 125%.
23:40
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're buying at a 60% drawdown, what you're looking at, can you see this on the screen TV?
23:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure.
23:46
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't.
23:46
[SPEAKER_02]: No, I can't.
23:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I just can't.
23:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me do a screen share this one more time.
23:53
[SPEAKER_01]: let me do that.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is that chart that I was saying.
23:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, buying at a 50% drawdown, your one year win rate will be 89.8%.
24:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And then your average return rate will be 125%.
24:05
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're buying at a 60% or worse drawdown, which we have not hit yet, but you know, we've come we're getting there.
24:12
[SPEAKER_01]: The odds that you'll be profitable one year later based on this data is 98.3% with an average return rate of 132%.
24:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, could we go lower?
24:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, should we go lower?
24:23
[SPEAKER_01]: My opinion, again, not financial advice.
24:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But I want to be a buyer, you know, looking at 90 plus percent odds or around that area, I'm okay taking that risk and maybe I'm wrong and maybe I lose money and maybe it doesn't work out that way.
24:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, based on historical data, I do think that there's some opportunity that we can look at in Bitcoin.
24:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it is possible we do go lower, but it's not something that's going to determine too too much in looking at some of the value.
24:52
[SPEAKER_01]: The final thing I'll say here is that a lot of these other large caps are looking somewhat similar, right?
24:58
[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of have a break of the lows moving down here.
25:05
[SPEAKER_01]: BNB, a lot of these charts all look similar, where they kind of had a break to the new lows, and they're just consolidating down there for the moment.
25:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So a little bit more weakness in terms of these altcoins, as they have kind of broken down.
25:21
[SPEAKER_01]: into some record levels.
25:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So you want to keep an eye on that, you know, Bitcoin looks a little bit stronger in health here, and even some of the coins that were heavily outperforming like hyper-liquid and near and Venice.
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Even those coins are starting to come down a little bit here as things are
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: settling out for the time being, but, you know, still things that I'm excited about, you know, we'll talk about HyperLick with a little bit later on, but still projects that I like, I still think, again, there's tons of opportunity out there, and out of these dips, I think you look at what's fundamentally strong, and you're probably going to still find things that are very, very tradable and longable.
25:58
[SPEAKER_01]: So, great breakdown.
25:59
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great breakdown.
26:00
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just kind of the reality of where we are.
26:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Good transition into the sailor quote of kind of saying, like, hey, big coins a little bit strong right now.
26:08
[SPEAKER_02]: All things a little bit weak.
26:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Sailor took on some alt-boys calling out a variety of them.
26:12
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's take a listen here.
26:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say the theory I'm going to call apps if you're paying attention.
26:18
[SPEAKER_00]: What you see in the rest of the crypto market is there's a competition between the theory I'm so on, the envy.
26:25
[SPEAKER_00]: for a long time, swey was the next salana, then that collapse, then out of his pipe, hyper-liquid, and in his competition at the layer two, is with our white drum and bass, and all of those things have stripped them off through a premium and all of those crypto tokens.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that even the people that will leave and the tokens realize that they're not money, they're not gonna have a monetary premium, they're gonna live in that based on utility, and they're all in a difficult,
26:53
[SPEAKER_00]: competition.
26:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the last 12 months have been really good for the position of Bitcoin is the dominant digital monetary network.
27:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They've established Bitcoin is digital capital.
27:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we've proven digital credit is an idea that works.
27:10
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, confidence.
27:14
[SPEAKER_04]: It's interesting quote, but like he's, you know, we just try to cover the news.
27:18
[SPEAKER_02]: He's talked other side of that, too.
27:19
[SPEAKER_02]: He's like, you know, when the market's hot and everybody's doing good, Taylor's had quotes where he said, you know, everybody's winning.
27:24
[SPEAKER_02]: He Ethereum's going to win, and, you know, it's, it's a right, am I wrong about that?
27:28
[SPEAKER_01]: No, you're right.
27:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It's, I was laughing because he's just making enemies right now, Tvo.
27:35
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to war.
27:36
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got some of the Bitcoin people against him.
27:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Said he'd never sell Bitcoin selling some Bitcoin.
27:41
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's taking these different stances.
27:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Used to be pro Ethereum, but more pro Bitcoin.
27:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that's not all, it's collapsed.
27:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It's so bad it's so bearish.
27:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Sailor the Bear Man, Sailor coming out as the Bear, selling some Bitcoin, saying that the Ethereum's collapse.
27:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Making enemies.
27:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I guess he's got to talk his bag on Dick Quinn here and double down, but he's not making friends saying things like that.
28:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what's gotten into him this year.
28:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, a couple of billion dollars on a P&L and to the negative will do that to people as Tom Lee for a quote about what he said about a theorem Tom Lee just gave me a shrug.
28:17
[SPEAKER_02]: He said, oh, by some word, but by some more eith bit mind buying more just continues continues to buy and they were launching that preferred stocks that's something will continue to watch.
28:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, but again, it's not necessarily it's a stronger pasture, but not not too much of a greener pasture.
28:32
[SPEAKER_02]: I thought this was a fun quote of Mike Mike Novigratts basically saying, Hey, the 60 K level, uh, we have, um, you know, technical support, but, you know, if you're somebody that likes to pray, maybe maybe say a couple prayers.
28:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's take a look at what Mike said going Michael.
28:48
[SPEAKER_04]: So we're at 62 as you and I are speaking,
28:52
[SPEAKER_04]: That said, head to 50.
28:54
[SPEAKER_04]: It has been to the 50s before it gets back to 70.
28:56
[SPEAKER_04]: I'll just point out when the ETF started, we were around the low 40s in January of 2024.
29:02
[SPEAKER_04]: So, where do you think we're going?
29:04
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I don't have a strong conviction if we...
29:09
[SPEAKER_03]: We take out 60, we're going to head to the mid 50s to a low 50s and then it'll be a 575.
29:15
[SPEAKER_03]: I think 80, you know, I said this before, I'm mad at myself, not selling enough when we got up to 82.
29:20
[SPEAKER_03]: I, when we were at 60 last time I said 80, you got to have to take out 80, 82, 83.
29:25
[SPEAKER_03]: That's going to be the top unless it takes that out and then it goes to 100.
29:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, it failed up there and now I think that still is,
29:33
[SPEAKER_03]: 80 still you're stealing that's the resistance.
29:36
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
29:37
[SPEAKER_03]: If you take out 60 it opens up 50, you know, 45 to 50.
29:42
[SPEAKER_03]: And so, if you're a good Catholic, you're staying to Hill and Mary's in our father that 60 holes.
29:49
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where we are right now in the crypto argued folks.
29:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw another clip from that podcast where it was just saying, um,
29:56
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like a sentiment, you know, for the Bitcoin, you know, the old school crypto heads is just like if we don't have the energy was it was an interesting quote was short so it wasn't worth like playing but the the thesis of it was it was like we don't have the energy right now like, you know, the new Bitcoiners and the new crypto people they're bailing because they, you know, bought the top and.
30:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the old Bitcoiners that have been through multiple cycles, it's like, yeah, we've seen this before, but like, I can't, I can't deal with this right now.
30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: There's too much, there's too much else going on in the markets, right, like with in a positive way with the eye trade and there's other areas to to research and make money.
30:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So I thought that was an interesting, um, interesting take, especially because galaxy is is, uh, you know, doubles in both crypto and the energy side.
30:40
[SPEAKER_02]: But any thoughts, are you joining or are you joining like no regrets in the pew?
30:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we all probably said in one or two, you know, maybe it's perfect, but maybe it's for an altcoin though that we like.
30:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But, um, not again, I think he's being pretty level-headed about it saying, hey guys, the same thing that we just said is like, there's the possibility that we go a little bit lower.
31:01
[SPEAKER_01]: He even left that open ended saying, hey, you know, could we go into the 50s?
31:05
[SPEAKER_01]: it's possible.
31:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It could be go a little bit lower than we're currently priced at.
31:09
[SPEAKER_01]: He left the door open and I would agree with him.
31:11
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not sitting there saying, guys, it is ugly.
31:14
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to get horrible.
31:16
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to go down.
31:16
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not saying that he's you just hear a soft slight more more.
31:24
[SPEAKER_01]: risk-based approach where it's sorry, a less risk-based approach where he's saying, I want to be careful around here.
31:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We could go lower and that's kind of the voice that he's taking as opposed to like a raw, horribly bearish tone.
31:35
[SPEAKER_01]: He's saying, you know, just hey, be careful.
31:37
[SPEAKER_01]: This stuff's still there and available and we could do that.
31:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's right about it.
31:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a possibility, but it's not something I'm like losing sleep over and freaking out about as well.
31:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, exactly.
31:49
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where we are.
31:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like anybody unless you have super high conviction.
31:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I guess one way or the other.
31:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It's definitely kind of let the market come to you type of vibe, which I know, you know, isn't always the most fun, but it kind of is what it is.
32:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, you can't have the.
32:04
[SPEAKER_02]: the fun pulls without a little bit of the bear, right?
32:06
[SPEAKER_02]: That's when makes the world go around.
32:09
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just some good news before we head out today.
32:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Hyperliquid, weekly users above 200,000 and interesting week for Hyperliquid as they try to price the SpaceX IPO.
32:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I think they're kind of right there.
32:19
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been really interesting.
32:22
[SPEAKER_02]: The traditional finance channels have been talking about Hyperliquid.
32:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Just kind of referencing some different features on it and obviously it's been making a lot of noise So good good for that, you know, small team like we've covered on the show.
32:37
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like they're doing wild things with a with a tight team there
32:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you know, I don't think, uh, again, I don't really think hyper liquids going anywhere if you look at their activity metrics and their growth metrics, they are just dominating now there are multi billion dollar project that's run two to 300% in the last several months, so you know, they're going to have pullbacks and stuff, but
32:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I like them, so long as they continue to grow, so long as they're growing in activity and in money and in users and in all these different metrics, I think it's really hard to feed them if they're growing at the rate that they are and this just kind of backs that up.
33:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they're crushing it, man.
33:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I like them, I'm talking my bags a little bit because I got some exposure to them.
33:18
[SPEAKER_01]: But, again, I don't think you can really argue against them.
33:22
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a reason I have exposure to them.
33:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, I did some profit taking and I sold some off, but guess what?
33:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to buy them on the dip.
33:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So, now I have a little bit more capital to buy them on the dip, which I'm excited to do.
33:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and again, we love doing the podcast for everybody and the YouTube, but you got to give a shout out to the community of Bryce, you, Rohit, Brian Jo, and Hunter and the entire team, like, and you know, hyperlink with something that you guys called super duper early.
33:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And if somebody like that's listening this isn't aware of the community, again, there's always links in the bio if you want to check it out.
33:57
[SPEAKER_02]: I think we got some dollar trials.
33:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, this is kind of the time to be uping your education, uping your knowledge around the space because the volatility.
34:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, it's here and the volatility comes opportunity.
34:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So, Brad and I thank you so much for joining me.
34:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, we didn't get to do a live today, but I appreciate everybody watching on YouTube.
34:16
[SPEAKER_02]: If you give it a thumbs up, bottom right, hit the logo and subscribe.
34:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll be back next week with some more lives.
34:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I hope everybody enjoys their weekend.
34:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, and the SpaceX IPO launch historic day for the markets.
34:28
[SPEAKER_02]: But thanks you all as always.
34:30
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's all for today.
34:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Bye, everybody.