Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Sports Gambling Impact of Coronavirus with Tom Tolbert

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The Sports Gambling Impact of Coronavirus with Tom Tolbert · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: Today the coronavirus, betting, March madness. What is happening, what
0:25
Speaker 1: will happen? How will it impact us? Later in the show,
0:29
Speaker 1: a longtime NBA player, currently the most popular sports radio
0:32
Speaker 1: host in the Bay Area, which is dealing with the
0:35
Speaker 1: coronavirus front center right now, Tom Tolbert from k n
0:39
Speaker 1: b R. But first let's do the main thing, the
0:45
Speaker 1: main thing from the Action Network, my friend Mr Jarren
0:51
Speaker 1: Revel right now, Darren, the main thing is how coronavirus
0:56
Speaker 1: is impacting sports, how it will impact sport. You're working
1:01
Speaker 1: on a story about it. Tell me what you've learned
1:03
Speaker 1: so far. Well, obviously, Chad, everything is in flux as
1:08
Speaker 1: the stock market crashes and people are being quarantined, and
1:14
Speaker 1: you look at as you mentioned San Francisco and banning
1:18
Speaker 1: anything that has mass crowds in a publicly owned facility
1:23
Speaker 1: at this point, so there's a lot up in the air.
1:27
Speaker 1: We had um the b n P Paribus, the otherwise
1:33
Speaker 1: known as the Indian Wells Tennis Tournament, the first big
1:37
Speaker 1: cancelation happened on Sunday night. Um, and we know that
1:42
Speaker 1: in Europe there has been games being played without crowds.
1:47
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the summary going in. And of
1:50
Speaker 1: course we have March Madness coming up next Thursday. Right now,
1:57
Speaker 1: it's kind of a day to day thing as to
2:00
Speaker 1: it will happen. There's so much that's being considered right now,
2:03
Speaker 1: obviously on the level of things that are freaking me
2:06
Speaker 1: out right now. First and foremost, you know, I say
2:09
Speaker 1: this only partially out of obligation. Make sure everybody stays healthy,
2:14
Speaker 1: make sure my family stays healthy, and make sure all
2:16
Speaker 1: of our colleagues at the Action Network stay healthy. We've
2:18
Speaker 1: been instituting like flexible work from home policies, We've been
2:22
Speaker 1: instituting sort of non essential travel bands, those kinds of things.
2:27
Speaker 1: Second after that being somewhere, like being in the city
2:31
Speaker 1: and then having the city shut down and being quarantined
2:33
Speaker 1: in the city for god knows how. Yeah, Listen, my
2:36
Speaker 1: friend was on the train this morning. He was sitting
2:38
Speaker 1: next to a guy. A guy sneezed, he moved, then
2:42
Speaker 1: he coughed. Ten minutes later, the person sitting in front
2:45
Speaker 1: of him then moved. This is the environment we're in.
2:49
Speaker 1: It's it's it's insane. But let's let's make some projection
2:54
Speaker 1: with different types of scenarios in terms of what you
2:58
Speaker 1: know what would play out. So first and foremost is
3:01
Speaker 1: going to be March Madness. You said March Madness starts Thursday, which,
3:05
Speaker 1: honest to God, feels like a lifetime. And if the
3:09
Speaker 1: BNP parabus was canceled outright right now at this moment,
3:15
Speaker 1: handicapped for me whether or not March Madness is actually
3:18
Speaker 1: even played right now. I think there is a ten
3:23
Speaker 1: percent chance it's canceled, six chance that at least some
3:29
Speaker 1: venues will have no crowd, twenty chance that at least
3:35
Speaker 1: in the beginning all venues will have no crowd. I
3:39
Speaker 1: think there's a five to ten percent chance that everything
3:42
Speaker 1: goes on as scheduled. But I really do think it
3:44
Speaker 1: is that small that nothing is affected. Something will happen.
3:48
Speaker 1: Right BNP parabus canceled last night. They could have played
3:52
Speaker 1: it with no fans. Why do you think they chose
3:54
Speaker 1: to cancel instead of playing with no fans. There was
3:57
Speaker 1: actually a quote from someone involved in tennis, involved in
4:01
Speaker 1: the tournament that they didn't think that it was in
4:04
Speaker 1: the spirit of what their tournament has become and realized
4:09
Speaker 1: that the majority of revenue there is ticket revenue. The
4:14
Speaker 1: majority of revenue for March Madness is not ticket revenue,
4:18
Speaker 1: it's TV revenue. So a tournament that is based on
4:24
Speaker 1: ticket sales versus a tournament where of people or more
4:29
Speaker 1: is going to be watching it from home, it's two
4:32
Speaker 1: different decisions. And so I think that's the reason why,
4:37
Speaker 1: because without the fans, this is nothing. So that's the difference.
4:42
Speaker 1: Think about the downstream impact here on businesses. If March
4:47
Speaker 1: Madness doesn't get pulled off in some way, like let's
4:50
Speaker 1: say they play the games without fans, that has a
4:53
Speaker 1: huge impact on the community where that game is played,
4:57
Speaker 1: the vendors, the parking lot tendence, sort of the anciliary
5:02
Speaker 1: income that comes from having a tournament game with all
5:06
Speaker 1: the fans that come with it. The only thing I
5:09
Speaker 1: would say about that is amidst what's going on in
5:13
Speaker 1: the general economy, it's a drop in the bucket. Yes,
5:17
Speaker 1: it's important in that moment, but if we're in some
5:21
Speaker 1: sort of economic tailspin, we're being affected anyway by other things,
5:27
Speaker 1: and that almost lessens the impact and economic loss in
5:31
Speaker 1: the moment if that makes sense, meaning the health risks
5:35
Speaker 1: are potentially so much bigger than the economic risks. The
5:40
Speaker 1: health risks are bigger, but I'm also saying that the
5:43
Speaker 1: general economy is suffering so much, everyone's losing more money.
5:49
Speaker 1: Give me accomp of this situation. Is it stars? Is
5:52
Speaker 1: there something else? Do we have to go back to
5:55
Speaker 1: World War Two? So hard? Uh? And I don't even
5:58
Speaker 1: we don't even know what's happening in the next minute.
6:00
Speaker 1: But certainly in my life, I don't think it is stars,
6:04
Speaker 1: because certainly in my lifetime, I have not seen such
6:08
Speaker 1: a state of flux from minute to minute in all
6:12
Speaker 1: our systems and our lives, ever in my forty one
6:16
Speaker 1: and a half years. I want us to move on
6:20
Speaker 1: to the next thing, the next thing. In this case,
6:27
Speaker 1: the next thing is still Corona related, which is, you've
6:30
Speaker 1: been working on a story about the value of home
6:33
Speaker 1: field advantage baseball, football, basketball, whatever the case may be,
6:38
Speaker 1: all of a sudden that story that you have been
6:39
Speaker 1: thinking about for a while takes on an entirely different
6:43
Speaker 1: tenor how do bookmakers incorporate playing in front of no
6:47
Speaker 1: crowds and what that does? In menan one seed versus
6:50
Speaker 1: a sixteen seed and eight seed versus a nine seed,
6:53
Speaker 1: where energy and emotion is everything in the INC double
6:56
Speaker 1: A tournament. How to bookmakers account for this? My job
7:00
Speaker 1: is to look and it's a complex story because it
7:02
Speaker 1: starts with is home field advantage real? And in general? Uh,
7:07
Speaker 1: it is real in terms of wins and losses, and
7:10
Speaker 1: over the last five years at least, it is a
7:14
Speaker 1: smaller percentage straight up versus spreads. For example, in the NBA,
7:19
Speaker 1: it's basically fifty fifty when you're talking about the line
7:22
Speaker 1: and versus straight up, which is much better in terms
7:26
Speaker 1: of percentage points. But when you're talking about March Madness specifically,
7:30
Speaker 1: you're obviously talking about in general. While teams are not
7:34
Speaker 1: playing in their home arena, obviously there is a mismatch
7:40
Speaker 1: in terms of crowd that larger teams with larger fan
7:45
Speaker 1: bases and teams that do better have more fans. So
7:49
Speaker 1: then it comes down to, well, how much of home
7:52
Speaker 1: team home field home court advantage is about the fans?
7:56
Speaker 1: And that's debatable, but if you look at studies in
8:00
Speaker 1: the past, fans, especially in moments of games that really count,
8:06
Speaker 1: are believed to have an impact and are even believed
8:10
Speaker 1: to have an impact on the referees, leading to referee bias,
8:13
Speaker 1: leading to calls that are better for the teams that
8:17
Speaker 1: have more fans. There's not really a conclusion, but there
8:22
Speaker 1: is a thought that fans certainly do mean something, and
8:26
Speaker 1: they do mean something in games with great consequence. That
8:30
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that for spread purposes there's no advantage, but
8:35
Speaker 1: there is definitely going to be a discount if it's
8:38
Speaker 1: a fanless venue to those specific teams that would normally
8:42
Speaker 1: have some sort of edge. I gotta tell you if
8:44
Speaker 1: I'm a better And it's so interesting because last night
8:48
Speaker 1: my mom called me. She was thinking about how betting
8:52
Speaker 1: gets impacted by crowdless games. And look, my mom, like,
8:57
Speaker 1: you know, she's not the most connected person in the world.
9:00
Speaker 1: Love her to death. She's amazing. She doesn't think about
9:04
Speaker 1: let's just say that, right. She knows what I do,
9:07
Speaker 1: unlike a lot of my friends who because we are
9:10
Speaker 1: owned by the Churning Group, and because when we launched
9:13
Speaker 1: the Action Network two years ago they said the Churning Group,
9:16
Speaker 1: which also owns Barstool, I still have friends who say
9:19
Speaker 1: to me, so, how are things going to Barstool? I'm like,
9:21
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. Last night, my wife
9:24
Speaker 1: and I took the dog for a walk, beautiful night
9:27
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Took the dog for a walk, stopped at
9:29
Speaker 1: a friends in the middle of the seeing them. We
9:32
Speaker 1: end up like there's a slack chain going on about
9:35
Speaker 1: having an executive staff called to decide how are we
9:39
Speaker 1: going to handle office for this week and our people
9:41
Speaker 1: traveling and all this kind of stuff. Obviously the next
9:43
Speaker 1: two weeks are massive for our business. And I'm like
9:46
Speaker 1: in the middle of my chain, and so I'm not
9:48
Speaker 1: paying attention to my friend and he goes, what's going
9:49
Speaker 1: on to barstool. I'm like, I can, I'll tell you
9:51
Speaker 1: what's happening at barstool because I work at Action And
9:54
Speaker 1: he goes, huh, yeah, I don't think I ever knew that.
9:58
Speaker 1: So my mom does know that I were good Action,
10:00
Speaker 1: which is great, But the fact that she's thinking about
10:02
Speaker 1: the betting, I think a lot of people are thinking
10:04
Speaker 1: about the betting, and I think a lot of people
10:06
Speaker 1: are thinking like, how is this going to impact the
10:10
Speaker 1: ways in which they do these things? And I don't
10:12
Speaker 1: mean to make it like about us, but obviously this
10:14
Speaker 1: is what we think about, and there are bigger issues
10:17
Speaker 1: to this than just the betting. But I do think
10:19
Speaker 1: like people in the sports world, people in the betting space,
10:22
Speaker 1: there is an entire community here that is thinking about
10:25
Speaker 1: how Corona is going to impact how people make lines
10:28
Speaker 1: and how people find advantages. They just are I mean
10:31
Speaker 1: I have thought of it, you know, a week ago,
10:33
Speaker 1: and it got obviously got a lot more real in
10:36
Speaker 1: the past hours. It gets more real every forty eight minutes. Yeah,
10:41
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about how I can survive. I am not
10:44
Speaker 1: thinking about how I can survive. To me, that is
10:47
Speaker 1: not productive. I am not oblivious to it. I do
10:52
Speaker 1: have a bottle of purerele in my house one, but
10:55
Speaker 1: my head will not be taken over by fear. And
10:59
Speaker 1: I refused to live a day where I worry about
11:03
Speaker 1: not dying. That's just not going to be me. Dar
11:06
Speaker 1: Revel with the most inspirational take on the coronavirus that
11:10
Speaker 1: we're gonna hear all day. So next up in the
11:13
Speaker 1: podcast is going to be Tom Tolbert. Tom has a
11:15
Speaker 1: very specific point of view on this because he's a
11:18
Speaker 1: sports radio talk show host very popular in the Bay Area. Obviously,
11:22
Speaker 1: Corona is impact in the Bay Area with public institutions,
11:25
Speaker 1: no longer allowing large gatherings, so he's gonna have a
11:28
Speaker 1: lot to say on this coming up next. Mike Leeboff,
11:32
Speaker 1: one of our editors. Here's his story. No matter what,
11:43
Speaker 1: I always bet the New York Islanders to when the
11:44
Speaker 1: Stanley Cup before season starts. I'm a big Islanders fan,
11:47
Speaker 1: so it just makes sense. And the year was two
11:50
Speaker 1: thousan thirteen, so the season actually started like the middle
11:53
Speaker 1: of January because there was a lockout. It was a
11:55
Speaker 1: forty eight game season. The Islanders weren't expected to do much.
11:59
Speaker 1: They were think around a hundred of one or something
12:01
Speaker 1: to win the Stanley Cup, and kind of against all odds,
12:04
Speaker 1: had a great second half of that shortened season and
12:07
Speaker 1: made the playoffs. And it was due to no help
12:10
Speaker 1: from one player in particular, Marty Reasoner, who was a
12:14
Speaker 1: you know, veteran grinder, fourth line center type who in
12:18
Speaker 1: thirty one games registered zero goals and five assists for
12:21
Speaker 1: the Islanders, but yet was one of the coach's favorites.
12:24
Speaker 1: He was the type of you know, veteran player, good
12:26
Speaker 1: in the room, kind of guy, glue, real glue guy,
12:28
Speaker 1: so he still got playing time even though there were
12:31
Speaker 1: probably some better options. For the Islanders down the lineup
12:34
Speaker 1: to put in for him. So when we got to
12:36
Speaker 1: April and it looked like there was actually a path
12:39
Speaker 1: for the Islanders to make the playoffs if they went
12:41
Speaker 1: on a little bit of run, I took it upon
12:43
Speaker 1: myself to try to lift Marty Reasoners confidence. The Islanders
12:46
Speaker 1: played the Devil's in New Jersey UH in April and
12:49
Speaker 1: won the game three one, and Reasoner had a typical
12:53
Speaker 1: Marty reason Or unremarkable game, and I thought to myself,
12:55
Speaker 1: you know what, let's put in a request for an
12:58
Speaker 1: interview with Reasoner after the game. He obviously was never
13:02
Speaker 1: We never interviewed him. Nobody would ever have a reason
13:04
Speaker 1: to really talk to him because he was the type
13:07
Speaker 1: of player that never showed up in a score sheet
13:10
Speaker 1: or anything. You didn't go to a game and say, wow,
13:12
Speaker 1: I'm glad I got to see Marty reason Or play tonight.
13:14
Speaker 1: And we get down to the locker room after this
13:18
Speaker 1: three one wins, so he comes out, he's all confused.
13:21
Speaker 1: He says, Hey, did did you guys put in a
13:22
Speaker 1: request to talk to me? And we said yeah. And Stan,
13:25
Speaker 1: who is just like a real mench says one of
13:27
Speaker 1: my spies here told me that you had your best
13:30
Speaker 1: game as an ever as an Islander, and told him
13:32
Speaker 1: that it looked like maybe his game was coming together
13:34
Speaker 1: and that he was coming around and that the goals
13:36
Speaker 1: would start coming. The Reasoner looked at him and said
13:38
Speaker 1: to him, right to his face, wasn't my mother? And
13:41
Speaker 1: there I was standing right next to him, knowing that
13:43
Speaker 1: that actually the reason he was standing there in his
13:45
Speaker 1: underwear in front of us was because I was trying
13:48
Speaker 1: to back channel away into lifting his confidence because I
13:51
Speaker 1: knew that the Islanders really needed him to be better
13:54
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. And it didn't work. He was basically
13:57
Speaker 1: terrible for the rest of that season and during the
13:59
Speaker 1: playoff us in the Islanders lust in six games to
14:02
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Penguins, and my bet and heart were ripped
14:07
Speaker 1: to smithereens. So here's to you, Marty Reasoner, Thank you Leeboff.
14:17
Speaker 1: All right, we will discuss another thing, another thing finally,
14:25
Speaker 1: as promised Tom Tolber, longtime NBA player, even longer time
14:30
Speaker 1: sports radio host on KIY n BR in San Francisco,
14:33
Speaker 1: maybe the most popular radio show of all time in
14:37
Speaker 1: sports in San Francisco, to go along with his near
14:40
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame career with multiple teams in the NBA
14:44
Speaker 1: and a prolific All American career at the University of Arizona. Oh, hello, Tom,
14:50
Speaker 1: I love the way you embellish. You make it sound
14:52
Speaker 1: so seamless. I didn't even know you were listening. I
14:55
Speaker 1: just thought I was sort of thinking about you in
14:57
Speaker 1: my natural state of loving every think you've done with
15:00
Speaker 1: your career even creepier. Uh, here's my first question for you.
15:07
Speaker 1: You guys are at the epicenter of Corona right now.
15:10
Speaker 1: Offices are closing. Look, I've got like my sister who
15:13
Speaker 1: works out there. She's working from home, her office closed.
15:17
Speaker 1: I know Stanford is closing classes and not doing large
15:21
Speaker 1: public gatherings. From your perspective, on a scale of everyone
15:24
Speaker 1: be rational to everyone, hook her down and buy Chef Boyard.
15:27
Speaker 1: Where are you? It's been weird for me. I've just
15:30
Speaker 1: been buying a whole bunch of lines just in case.
15:33
Speaker 1: I figured. If limes can't beat the coronavirus, what can
15:36
Speaker 1: And you know what, if it doesn't work, I won't
15:38
Speaker 1: get scurvy, and who the hell wants scurvy? So yeah,
15:41
Speaker 1: I'm loading up. Why everyone's zigging with the water and
15:45
Speaker 1: the cane goods. I'm zagging with the lines, hoping that
15:49
Speaker 1: will be a value play for me. Well, it's funny
15:51
Speaker 1: when you first said lines, I thought you said lines,
15:54
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking, oh my god, he's shorting every single game,
15:58
Speaker 1: like he's just he's by your points on every single game.
16:01
Speaker 1: He cant better it right now? Uh, you know what,
16:05
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I don't know where it's at. Some
16:07
Speaker 1: people put some people are freaking out. Some people think
16:09
Speaker 1: this is the worst thing ever. I'm just like, whatever,
16:12
Speaker 1: what can I do about it? They wash my hands
16:14
Speaker 1: and basically that's all I can do. Wash my hands,
16:16
Speaker 1: don't touch my face at the more they tell you
16:18
Speaker 1: not to touch your face. Some more you touch your
16:20
Speaker 1: face for for whatever reason. But you know, some people
16:23
Speaker 1: have the masks on. Some people are hunkering down and
16:25
Speaker 1: staying inside. Some people are boarding water and toilet paper
16:28
Speaker 1: of all things that one I don't quite get. But whatever,
16:31
Speaker 1: if it makes you feel better, go ahead and do it.
16:33
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the flow guy. Whatever happens happens.
16:36
Speaker 1: I thought it was some evil plot by the Takati
16:38
Speaker 1: people to get markets here back. But what do I know? Well,
16:42
Speaker 1: you don't know much, to be honest, But here's what
16:44
Speaker 1: you do know. Well, that's a given, and you know
16:46
Speaker 1: even less because you have me on I guess the
16:48
Speaker 1: fault is mine. Right now, they're playing sporting events in
16:52
Speaker 1: Europe without fans. You did once U punt of time
16:56
Speaker 1: play sports at a high level in both the college
16:58
Speaker 1: and the NBA level. Can you imagine what it's like
17:02
Speaker 1: to play in a stadium without fans? Well, yes I can.
17:06
Speaker 1: I played for the Clippers, so I can't imagine what
17:08
Speaker 1: play play for the Clippers. That's by the way, I
17:11
Speaker 1: didn't even remember you played for the Clippers, like a
17:13
Speaker 1: lot of people didn't the littany of teams you've played
17:17
Speaker 1: for that one. Just for some reason, I did not
17:19
Speaker 1: remember when you're playing in for that few people. Lebron
17:22
Speaker 1: was like, no way, I'm not playing for the fans.
17:24
Speaker 1: How was it impacting you was an athlete? Because I
17:26
Speaker 1: do have a follow up question that is betting specific here. Well,
17:29
Speaker 1: it's weird. It's energy. It's all about energy, and you
17:32
Speaker 1: usually get that energy you're used to being out there
17:34
Speaker 1: and the fans who there love you. The fans hate you,
17:37
Speaker 1: and there's a bunch of them they're cheering for you
17:39
Speaker 1: or they're cheering against you, but there is energy, there's
17:42
Speaker 1: a buzz, and when you're playing in front of no buzz,
17:46
Speaker 1: it's the weirdest thing. I mean, you can hear people
17:50
Speaker 1: up in the lows section going god like, guy really sucks,
17:54
Speaker 1: and you're like, thank you. I think. I think one
17:56
Speaker 1: time a guy sneezed about fifty rows up and I said,
17:59
Speaker 1: bless you, and I got to quiet. It was and
18:02
Speaker 1: it is the weirdest thing when there's no buzz there,
18:06
Speaker 1: because you gotta you gotta create your own juice, and
18:08
Speaker 1: it's it's not easy to do because you're just not
18:11
Speaker 1: used to it. So how do you do it? Oh?
18:13
Speaker 1: I meant, I don't know. I don't know if there's
18:15
Speaker 1: any way to replicate fan buzz. It's just a weird
18:18
Speaker 1: deal because it's dead. I mean, they say create your
18:21
Speaker 1: own and I always thought, well, that's great. It sounds
18:24
Speaker 1: good in theory. I don't know how it works in
18:26
Speaker 1: practice because it's not not something you're used to. I
18:29
Speaker 1: wish i'd give you a pithy answer for that one,
18:32
Speaker 1: but it didn't happen a lot. But when it did happen,
18:35
Speaker 1: I still haven't figured it out, all right. So that's
18:37
Speaker 1: a really interesting thing though, because does it just feel
18:39
Speaker 1: like a practice? No, it is. I read an article
18:42
Speaker 1: this week. We're Gosman and some marginhood pitched in front
18:45
Speaker 1: of no fans in Baltimore when they had I figured
18:49
Speaker 1: what it was going on there. I know what I
18:51
Speaker 1: had to do with the police and safety reasons, and
18:56
Speaker 1: they pitched in front of like nobody, and they said
18:58
Speaker 1: it was like the weirdest thing because it's just no
19:01
Speaker 1: vendors or nothing. You're just yeah, So it's just, you know,
19:04
Speaker 1: you're just not used to it. You know, you're not
19:05
Speaker 1: prepared for something like that because you don't you don't
19:08
Speaker 1: deal with a very often. On college, I played in
19:09
Speaker 1: front of thirteen five people and then the pros. You know,
19:13
Speaker 1: usually it's at least that, if not close to twenties.
19:15
Speaker 1: So when you're playing in front of five or four,
19:18
Speaker 1: it's weird. Playing in front of zero. Can't even imagine
19:21
Speaker 1: how that would affect you, all right, So let's take
19:23
Speaker 1: it to the next level. Who has an advantage when
19:27
Speaker 1: you're playing in front of nobody from a betting perspective? Oh? Man,
19:32
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't even know how you'd quantify that
19:34
Speaker 1: when does it happen, How does it happen? I mean
19:36
Speaker 1: your sample size that have to be extremely small in
19:39
Speaker 1: a situation like that. I can't even remember basketball games
19:43
Speaker 1: in front of nobody. I know they're doing over that
19:44
Speaker 1: you're doing in Italy. I don't know how it affects
19:47
Speaker 1: the soccer. I guess you just make it the same.
19:52
Speaker 1: I don't know what else you would do, because I
19:54
Speaker 1: from an athlete standpoint, I don't think it would affect
19:57
Speaker 1: one team more than the next. I guess it's logic,
20:00
Speaker 1: Lee you you'd shade the road team a little bit
20:03
Speaker 1: just because there's no fans there and the referees don't
20:05
Speaker 1: have to deal with the fans, and you're not having
20:07
Speaker 1: to deal with the adrenaline, and they don't get that
20:09
Speaker 1: boost from the adrenaline. So I guess. I mean, if
20:12
Speaker 1: I'm setting the line, either would be the same or
20:15
Speaker 1: I'd probably shade it towards the towards the dog a
20:17
Speaker 1: little bit because maybe a little less adversity that they
20:20
Speaker 1: got to deal with. That's what I think I would do.
20:22
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to shade it towards the dog.
20:24
Speaker 1: You eliminate say point or two off of the home
20:28
Speaker 1: corn advantage, because, like you said, being at home, half
20:32
Speaker 1: the advantage is playing in front of your home crowd
20:35
Speaker 1: and getting amped up, and like that's an energy boost
20:37
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the game and sort of at
20:39
Speaker 1: the beginning of the second half, and then any single
20:41
Speaker 1: time you make a run that can't be replicated, right,
20:45
Speaker 1: So then also I would think about this, and you
20:47
Speaker 1: can answer this communication might be a little bit easier
20:50
Speaker 1: for the visiting team, like the home team is used
20:53
Speaker 1: to sort of the pace and the rhythm and the noise.
20:55
Speaker 1: That would be something that probably be more football, because
20:58
Speaker 1: football is a lot of times you gotta go to
21:00
Speaker 1: silent counts because you can't call players because the crowd
21:02
Speaker 1: is allowed. I don't know that I've ever been in
21:03
Speaker 1: a basketball arena where it's been so loud that I
21:06
Speaker 1: couldn't think. I've been in some loud arenas, and when
21:08
Speaker 1: I played for the Warriors, that was the loudest the
21:10
Speaker 1: pro level. It was really loud at Arizona when I play,
21:13
Speaker 1: But I don't know, if it's so loud you couldn't
21:15
Speaker 1: call plays, you couldn't think basketball, it's not a game
21:17
Speaker 1: you really got to shout too far to to get
21:20
Speaker 1: your point across. But the other points valid. I think
21:22
Speaker 1: the louder and arena, the more ampty team skit, and
21:26
Speaker 1: the more disoriented a road team may get. So I'm
21:29
Speaker 1: with you, I'd probably shade it that way. But then again,
21:31
Speaker 1: who knows. I mean, without sample size, you don't know
21:34
Speaker 1: how that would affect it. In you know, maybe Sharps
21:36
Speaker 1: would go like, now that's too much. Two points is
21:38
Speaker 1: too much, so we'll go back the other way. And
21:40
Speaker 1: it'd be interesting to see where, let's say, if you
21:42
Speaker 1: had fifty games, which is still pretty small sample size,
21:46
Speaker 1: how that would how that would play out? All? Right,
21:48
Speaker 1: next level, what do you do during March madness? Everything
21:52
Speaker 1: is a neutral court or for top seeds. I had
21:56
Speaker 1: darn Ravella earlier and we were talking about Gonzaga and like,
21:58
Speaker 1: if they're going to be a West seed and they're
22:00
Speaker 1: playing you know, their regional somewhere in the state of Washington.
22:04
Speaker 1: Washington is where there's a huge outbreak of coronas, so
22:08
Speaker 1: it's possible they could play empty all of a sudden.
22:11
Speaker 1: You might reduce the value of Gonzaga's home court advantage
22:15
Speaker 1: in the opening round because they're not getting the crowd
22:18
Speaker 1: advantage that they would have had. Well, I would say this,
22:20
Speaker 1: and this goes back a long time ago. We played
22:23
Speaker 1: at Polly Pavilion for opening rounds, so it wasn't in Arizona,
22:26
Speaker 1: but it's like, you know, six hour drive, so we
22:29
Speaker 1: were definitely the the home team there and I didn't
22:33
Speaker 1: feel any home field that. I didn't feel in any
22:35
Speaker 1: home court advantage whatsoever. The Incidable tournaments, even though you
22:39
Speaker 1: are playing in front of your home crowd most times,
22:42
Speaker 1: it still doesn't feel like home. It can get a
22:44
Speaker 1: little loud there, but it's still split. Even though it's seventy.
22:48
Speaker 1: You have a lot of people there. They aren't rooting
22:50
Speaker 1: for one side or the other. They may be left
22:52
Speaker 1: over from the game before getting ready to watch the
22:54
Speaker 1: second game, or just their basketball fans, so they happen
22:56
Speaker 1: to be there. So I don't even know personally if
22:59
Speaker 1: I would even touch it. I think I would just
23:01
Speaker 1: leave it the same. At a neutral site, even though
23:03
Speaker 1: you're playing close to home, it's still not home. And
23:08
Speaker 1: I don't know what it's like today. I mean, we're
23:10
Speaker 1: going back a long time ago and we played in Tucson.
23:12
Speaker 1: Actually my junior year, we played at home. I think
23:15
Speaker 1: it was the last tournament positive where you could play
23:20
Speaker 1: on your home flour. And it was the weirdest thing
23:22
Speaker 1: because we played you tap were like an eight C,
23:25
Speaker 1: nine C, tenC. I don't even know what we were actually, uh,
23:28
Speaker 1: and we were at home. It was like why we
23:30
Speaker 1: we got beat? Uh? But I still didn't feel a
23:32
Speaker 1: home court advantage. It wasn't our It was our floor,
23:35
Speaker 1: but it wasn't our home court. So again, I don't
23:38
Speaker 1: even know if I would, I would shade it one
23:41
Speaker 1: way or the other, whether whether it's at home. And
23:44
Speaker 1: I do find it interesting that we're talking about getting
23:46
Speaker 1: an edge from the coronavirus because I thought about this
23:49
Speaker 1: last night. I thought about how sick it was, like
23:52
Speaker 1: Gambler is always looking for edges. And then I always
23:55
Speaker 1: think about GM from sports pro sports teams. They have
23:58
Speaker 1: everything built into a a damn algorithm. A guy could
24:01
Speaker 1: be a first rounder, and because he gets in trouble
24:04
Speaker 1: with the law, he's not a first round anymore. But
24:06
Speaker 1: maybe there's value at a third rounder. And I always think,
24:08
Speaker 1: wait a minute, if you think he's a bad guy
24:10
Speaker 1: because he got popped and he's not a first rounder anymore.
24:13
Speaker 1: Why is he a fourth rounder? Now, I mean, even
24:14
Speaker 1: he's a bad guy or he's not a bad guy,
24:16
Speaker 1: and you're gonna draft him, You're gonna drop that same
24:19
Speaker 1: bad guy in the fourth round that you wouldn't draft
24:21
Speaker 1: in the first round. Why? Because of value? And that's
24:24
Speaker 1: what you talk about in gambling now. Value, that's what
24:26
Speaker 1: everybody talks about in all sports, about three point firth
24:29
Speaker 1: two pointers? Should you know? Seventeen foot first, twenty ft?
24:32
Speaker 1: I mean, everything's uh about value now, it's it's all
24:36
Speaker 1: it's all the matrix. We're all living in the matrix. Well,
24:39
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we're all pretty mercenary, right,
24:41
Speaker 1: And that's what sports fandom has become because of moneyball,
24:44
Speaker 1: because of data, because everyone feels like they can win.
24:47
Speaker 1: Everyone's opportunistic, I promise you right now, the stock market
24:51
Speaker 1: is taking and there are many many people who know
24:54
Speaker 1: more about the stock market that I do who are
24:56
Speaker 1: shorting stocks. They're figuring out when the bottom is going
24:59
Speaker 1: to be so they can get it on their opportunity.
25:01
Speaker 1: You and I were sports bettors. I work at a
25:03
Speaker 1: sports betting company. I'm looking to see, all right, how
25:06
Speaker 1: am I going to try to find ways to bet
25:09
Speaker 1: march madness, which is terrible. Dude. We all do it.
25:13
Speaker 1: I mean everybody does it. I mean I don't think
25:15
Speaker 1: for a second if somebody like passes away or something
25:17
Speaker 1: project happens, the first thing, like people that bet sports
25:21
Speaker 1: think about her. I wonder how that affects that club.
25:24
Speaker 1: I wonder how that affects that team. I mean it's
25:26
Speaker 1: kind of it's sick to think about it in those terms.
25:28
Speaker 1: But you know, there are people out there that starts, Oh,
25:30
Speaker 1: that that happened to that person, that person's mother passed away.
25:34
Speaker 1: I mean it's just but yeah, they do it the
25:36
Speaker 1: stock market, they do it, gambling, they do it. When
25:39
Speaker 1: I factor that into my handicapping, sometimes I'm not happy
25:43
Speaker 1: with it. I don't go, oh yeah, okay, I found
25:45
Speaker 1: this edge. But sometimes you just do what you gotta
25:47
Speaker 1: do it. Guess you just go. There are people who
25:50
Speaker 1: do this. They look at the stock market to think
25:52
Speaker 1: about this, They look at sports betting and think about
25:54
Speaker 1: the advantage. We are those people. I'm not proud of
25:57
Speaker 1: it either, and not going to celebrate the advantage I
26:01
Speaker 1: can find, but I'm still going to use the event.
26:05
Speaker 1: I guess that's the perfect way put it doesn't make
26:08
Speaker 1: me feel any better. I'm only going to tell people
26:10
Speaker 1: who really know who I am, and they already think
26:13
Speaker 1: I'm a bad person. So that way, when it's really dark,
26:17
Speaker 1: I don't have to feel as bad about myself exactly.
26:19
Speaker 1: You can just confirm it. Oh my god, we're terrible people.
26:22
Speaker 1: You think of a dark person, I'll confirm it for you.
26:24
Speaker 1: Check this out. I get an extra point. Half brother
26:27
Speaker 1: passed away last night. There's no way he's gonna be
26:30
Speaker 1: up to play. Oh god, Jesus, you had no idea
26:33
Speaker 1: this is going to turn this direct. Well, listen, I
26:36
Speaker 1: always worry about it with you. I know, so I
26:40
Speaker 1: didn't know exactly where, but I worried about something like this.
26:43
Speaker 1: But it's also just true. Look, it's like it is.
26:46
Speaker 1: It's just that's what I'm thinking about right now. I
26:49
Speaker 1: am thinking very much. Obviously, first and foremost everybody stay healthy,
26:53
Speaker 1: goes without saying. But I'm also thinking, all right, how
26:57
Speaker 1: is this going to impact me? Like I was on
26:58
Speaker 1: the phone an hour ago with a your mine and
27:01
Speaker 1: my kids sixteen and as a junior in high school.
27:04
Speaker 1: His kid is sixteen as a junior in high school,
27:06
Speaker 1: and we were both talking about like Acosta College, and
27:10
Speaker 1: I said to him, I'm not looking at our five
27:12
Speaker 1: twenty nine for a month. I'm just not gonna think
27:14
Speaker 1: about it. Like the value of that five twenty nine
27:17
Speaker 1: today is worth a lot less than it was two
27:18
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and I cannot think about like what it
27:22
Speaker 1: is right now and where my kid can go to
27:24
Speaker 1: college or not go to college based on the value
27:27
Speaker 1: of that fund. I'm sorry to say, but I'm looking
27:29
Speaker 1: at this through my particular lens right now. Here's the thing,
27:32
Speaker 1: and the community college is a is a great option.
27:34
Speaker 1: Don't order about that, assuming the guy can get into
27:37
Speaker 1: college anyways, Here's the thing. You can't do anything about it.
27:44
Speaker 1: This is why you don't feel bad about it, and
27:46
Speaker 1: so why I don't feel bad about stuff. I mean again,
27:49
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't celebrate it. But what am
27:51
Speaker 1: I to do. I can't do anything. I can't go
27:54
Speaker 1: out there. And somebody's not saying, hey, Tom, I'll give
27:56
Speaker 1: you an option. You can take away the coronavirus, or
28:00
Speaker 1: you can get two points edge in ten different incitably
28:03
Speaker 1: tournament games. No one's giving me that option. If they did,
28:06
Speaker 1: then I would clearly well, I'd go with I look,
28:10
Speaker 1: I'd go at the coronavirus and I'd wave the one.
28:13
Speaker 1: Your answer would be, can I get the points and
28:15
Speaker 1: then immediately get rid of the coronavirus? Oh? Yeah, then
28:18
Speaker 1: I would definitely do that way. And now, of course,
28:20
Speaker 1: of course you would say, you know what, boom, we're done,
28:22
Speaker 1: We're done. You know what, where about my gambling habits
28:26
Speaker 1: and my value later? But I don't you don't get it.
28:29
Speaker 1: I don't get it if you look at it. Here's
28:31
Speaker 1: what it is. You look at the facts. And that's
28:34
Speaker 1: what you try to do when you're when you're handicapping
28:37
Speaker 1: a game. Let me look at all the facts. I
28:39
Speaker 1: feel like looking at it. And this is one of
28:40
Speaker 1: the facts you have to look at. And if you
28:42
Speaker 1: don't look at it, you're just being You're just being negligent.
28:45
Speaker 1: It's not like you're rooting for It's not like you've
28:47
Speaker 1: got you know, corona pom poms on and you're rooting
28:50
Speaker 1: for the go virus. I mean, you're not doing that.
28:53
Speaker 1: I don't have a choice. You don't have a choice.
28:54
Speaker 1: So those that's what's in front of us, Those are
28:57
Speaker 1: the facts. Try to come up with the best decision
28:59
Speaker 1: you can, period you're not going to celebrate anything. You
29:02
Speaker 1: just deal with what you have to do with, play
29:04
Speaker 1: the hand you're dealt. That's exactly Kenny Rodgers. That's what
29:07
Speaker 1: I'm talking about. You know. Back when I was in
29:09
Speaker 1: fifth grade, I went to overnight camp and they had
29:12
Speaker 1: these talent shows. First four weeks and second four weeks,
29:15
Speaker 1: and the second four weeks I was asked to sing
29:19
Speaker 1: the song the Gambler by Kenny Rodgers, how you do
29:24
Speaker 1: Not good? Not good at all. But I thought I
29:26
Speaker 1: was amazing. But it's really I was like, you know,
29:29
Speaker 1: a very small fifth grader with a high voice, and
29:31
Speaker 1: that's why I think I was taking advantage of Honestly,
29:34
Speaker 1: they put me out there as a prop. Oh. I
29:36
Speaker 1: thought you're gonna say you're taking advantage by the councils.
29:39
Speaker 1: I was like, well, that's a different podcast. I feel
29:43
Speaker 1: like we've we've delved into deep enough secrets for the day,
29:47
Speaker 1: Like we've already revealed too much, way too much. Did
29:52
Speaker 1: this have to air? No? Probably not, we should. Probably
29:55
Speaker 1: they should probably a better idea of this never season
29:59
Speaker 1: later day. In fact, I think we should end it.
30:01
Speaker 1: I think we should end it right now. Goodness, gracious, Alright, Tom, listen,
30:07
Speaker 1: I feel like this was This was a little bit
30:09
Speaker 1: like the radio. You know, you and I will do
30:10
Speaker 1: a radio segment every week on candy Are. This past week,
30:14
Speaker 1: I don't even think we ever got to a gambling question.
30:16
Speaker 1: I think we talked about the most random stuff for
30:18
Speaker 1: thirty five minutes. That's what we do. This time, we
30:21
Speaker 1: just revealed the kind of people we did only it's
30:24
Speaker 1: really pretty. But now you're gonna do Alright, Tom Tilbert,
30:30
Speaker 1: I agree, And by the way, I probably not the
30:32
Speaker 1: only person thinking like this. You're not the only person. No, no,
30:36
Speaker 1: we're not. Definitely, definitely we're not that. I do know
30:41
Speaker 1: you're kidding me. And help people that sell their mother
30:43
Speaker 1: for half a point. Alright, Tom Tilbert, thanks for coming
30:46
Speaker 1: on the Favorites podcast. I'll talk to you later. You'll
30:48
Speaker 1: never have me on again, but thanks Dad. A pretty
30:51
Speaker 1: just vaulted to number one guest. Dad. Thank you to
30:55
Speaker 1: Dari Revel for coming on. Thank you to Tom Tilber
30:59
Speaker 1: for coming on, and for to me to reveal my deepest,
31:01
Speaker 1: darkest secrets before we go. As always, our fearless leader,
31:06
Speaker 1: our CEO of Patrick Keane, He's going to take us
31:08
Speaker 1: out with some brilliant words of inspiration. Why are you
31:12
Speaker 1: interrupting me? You do not interrupt bait. Do you understand
31:16
Speaker 1: this has been the Favorites Podcast Download on Apple podcast
31:20
Speaker 1: download on Spotify, download wherever you get your podcasts. Rate review, subscribe, unsubscribe,
31:26
Speaker 1: resubscribe until next time. Love you,