Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Will The Senate Pass A Crypto Bill? (August 3, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Will The Senate Pass A Crypto Bill? (August 3, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is your weekly
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  Speaker 1: Washington policy Pulse, the Balance of Power Podcasts. I'm Joe Matthew.
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  Speaker 1: Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of
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  Speaker 1: the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming
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  Speaker 1: catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent
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  Speaker 1: and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence.
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  Speaker 1: Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Washington Policy Post. My
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  Speaker 2: name is Nathan dm a senior policy analyst here in Washington,
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  Speaker 2: DC with Bloomberg Intelligence. I want to say thank you
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  Speaker 2: very much for joining, and thank you to those of
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  Speaker 2: you who are listening to via the Balance of Power podcast.
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  Speaker 2: We always appreciate listening. Today's August third, it's ten oh
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  Speaker 2: one a m. Eastern. The Senate is still here, the
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  Speaker 2: houses out. It's gonna be fairly quick, just because I
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  Speaker 2: don't think there's going to be a ton of stuff
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  Speaker 2: happening this week, but it is the race for the
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  Speaker 2: August recess. Now, the first thing I want to start
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  Speaker 2: with was an update on the Clarity Act.
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  Speaker 3: This is the crypto market structure bill.
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  Speaker 2: That if you've been listening to these calls, you know
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  Speaker 2: that I've been in a sixty percent chance of passage,
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  Speaker 2: and as of right now, I just still want to
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  Speaker 2: see what's going on. And my joke is is that
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  Speaker 2: if you ever come into the office and I get
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  Speaker 2: it a question wrong, I owe you a Bloomberg coffee.
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  Speaker 2: And for those of you who are watching this in
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  Speaker 2: the livestream, these are free. So if I do get
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  Speaker 2: this wrong, you're welcome to coming to the Bloomberg Bureau
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  Speaker 2: full disclosure. If you come to Washington you say, hey,
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  Speaker 2: let's get coffee, I'll take you to Tata across the
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  Speaker 2: street and I'll get you a better coffee than that.
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  Speaker 2: But what happens here is is that we are most
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  Speaker 2: likely going to see a procedural vote later this week.
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  Speaker 3: Now.
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  Speaker 2: The Democrats still aren't on board with the Republican and
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  Speaker 2: White House offer on ethics provisions. There are still hiccups
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  Speaker 2: related to the stable coin rewards provisions of the crypto
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  Speaker 2: built now what it's worth. I don't think that's going
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  Speaker 2: to change. And when I mean hiccups, and people are
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  Speaker 2: still saying that they're not entirely on board with it,
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  Speaker 2: But I think what's going to happen is that you
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  Speaker 2: are going to see a procedural vote later this week. Now,
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  Speaker 2: this procedural vote is a vote that gets you to
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  Speaker 2: keep the ball rolling here, and this is going to
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  Speaker 2: have essentially two impacts. One is that if the procedural
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  Speaker 2: vote occurs and it passes, it allows negotiations to continue.
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  Speaker 2: It allows them to negotiate over the rest of the
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  Speaker 2: August recess, and it buys them more time that they
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  Speaker 2: could come back in September. The other thing that this
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  Speaker 2: vote does is it essentially puts everybody on the record.
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  Speaker 2: And so if it fails and a lot of modern
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  Speaker 2: Democrats who have been flirting with the idea of supporting
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  Speaker 2: a crypto bill ultimately come out against it, then the
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  Speaker 2: crypto political action money can actually been released over August
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  Speaker 2: recess and will either support or harm or combat those
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  Speaker 2: opponents or proponents of the bill, depending on how they vote. Now,
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  Speaker 2: long story short is, or maybe the short story long
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  Speaker 2: is that I think I'm beginning to think I owe
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  Speaker 2: a lot of people Bloomberg.
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  Speaker 3: Coffees changing my number. Right now, it's still sixty percent.
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  Speaker 2: I'm going to give it another day or two but
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  Speaker 2: I look, it's looking more and more unlikely. But you know,
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  Speaker 2: if you've been listening to these calls, you know that
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  Speaker 2: my theory has always been is that the banks ultimately
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  Speaker 2: want a deal because if they don't get it, then
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  Speaker 2: the crypto platforms can essentially do whatever they want under
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  Speaker 2: a regulatory friendly environment for the next two years from
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  Speaker 2: a crypto platform. I definitely want to deal now because
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  Speaker 2: if not, it looks like you may have to try
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  Speaker 2: under a democratic communist House representatives next year. That's going
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  Speaker 2: to be difficult. And if you don't get a deal
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  Speaker 2: in two years, a democratic president could come in and
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  Speaker 2: really change the regulatory landscape. And if I'm a politician,
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  Speaker 2: I want to deal well because of the crypto platform money,
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  Speaker 2: not the crypto platform I'm sorry, the crypto political action money.
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  Speaker 3: So ultimately we'll see where it goes.
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  Speaker 2: Now, if the bill does, if we get a scenario
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  Speaker 2: where like later this week, maybe the Democrats come out
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  Speaker 2: and say, a fine, I'll give you seven votes just
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  Speaker 2: to keep the ball rolling, then this debate essentially gets
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  Speaker 2: transformed to September. September is looking a little bit less
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  Speaker 2: tight because of some of the work that's going on
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  Speaker 2: related to the government shutdown. Now, as a reminder, before
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  Speaker 2: the House left, they passed a stopgap measure that would
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  Speaker 2: keep the government open from September thirtieth to December fourth.
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  Speaker 3: The Senator is currently going.
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  Speaker 2: To be voting tonight on a stopgap measure that keeps
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  Speaker 2: the government open through December eleventh.
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  Speaker 3: These are two separate measures.
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  Speaker 2: The Democratic I'm sorry, the Democratic. The House one can
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  Speaker 2: actually be more of the clean one. The Senate one
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  Speaker 2: does have a little bit more provisions in here that
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  Speaker 2: both the White House and Democrats may not like. So
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  Speaker 2: even if this passes, and let's just presume it passes.
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  Speaker 2: If it passes and it keeps it open to December eleventh,
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  Speaker 2: then the House has to come back in September and
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  Speaker 2: they have to accept or reject the Senate deal. And
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  Speaker 2: this is really the dynamic here of how the shutdown
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  Speaker 2: argument in September is going to be playing out is
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  Speaker 2: based off of the vote tonight. If the vote passes,
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  Speaker 2: and full disclosure, just remember forty percent chance of a shutdown.
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  Speaker 2: I actually I think it's a forty percent chance. When
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  Speaker 2: I updated before sorry, i'm so on vacation mode, I
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  Speaker 2: was at a forty percent chance of a shutdown, and
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  Speaker 2: I actually was told by a couple of folks who
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  Speaker 2: work on Capitol Hill they thought that was too high.
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  Speaker 2: But as of right now, I don't think a shutdown
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  Speaker 2: is going to happen. But if this Senate does pass
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  Speaker 2: the stopgap measure tonight, the shutdown debate in September becomes
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  Speaker 2: a fight between the Senate and the House and the
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  Speaker 2: White House over conflicting provisions. If it doesn't pass and
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  Speaker 2: the House measure is the one that people start discussing,
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  Speaker 2: then it becomes a fight between Republicans and Democrats over
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  Speaker 2: the provisions. And so those two different scenarios have different
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  Speaker 2: outcomes here because then you get into a scenario where
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  Speaker 2: if it's scenario one and it's the Senate versus the House,
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  Speaker 2: then you need bipartisan solutions on both sides and it
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  Speaker 2: just gets messy, or you know, maybe the House rejects it,
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  Speaker 2: it just gets messy.
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  Speaker 3: Again.
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  Speaker 2: Long story short is, I do think we are going
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  Speaker 2: to have a stopgap solution in September, but fireworks are
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  Speaker 2: going to take place. The last thing I want to
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  Speaker 2: talk about is giving an update on reconciliation. So as
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  Speaker 2: a reminder, the House unlocked its Instructions Sports bill. This
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  Speaker 2: is the majority of defense spending plus the farm maid
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  Speaker 2: The Senate is going to try and unlock their provision
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  Speaker 2: or their instructions this week. That would actually allow them
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  Speaker 2: to come back in September and move things a lot quicker.
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  Speaker 3: I still think it's going to be a challenge.
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  Speaker 2: You know this bill, for example, the sixty seven billion
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  Speaker 2: dollars that's out there for the Department of Defense, it's
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  Speaker 2: nowhere near what the White House requested three hundred fifty
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars. There are some folks in the Senate where like, look,
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  Speaker 2: I want to go there. I want to go three
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  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty billion. Let's increase the number of defense spending.
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  Speaker 2: But you also run into the problem the deficit hawks,
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  Speaker 2: because there's no offset measures in here. And so if
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  Speaker 2: you were to increase this number and say let's go
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  Speaker 2: to three hundred and fifty billion plus the eleven billion
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  Speaker 2: in farm made and there's no offsetting measures here, now
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  Speaker 2: the deficit hawks have a problem. And you know, can
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  Speaker 2: they get this all done before the November midterms.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not exactly sure.
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  Speaker 2: You'd have to scale this thing down and make it
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  Speaker 2: fairly clean beyond what it is right now. So again
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  Speaker 2: we'll see and then we have started beginning questions about
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  Speaker 2: lame duck. You know, what I will say is is
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  Speaker 2: that if the Democrats win the House of Representatives, the
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  Speaker 2: only lane duck measures out there would be another attempt
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  Speaker 2: at a reconciliation bill, like what can the Republicans try
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  Speaker 2: and pass before the Democrats take over the House of Representatives.
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  Speaker 3: If the Democrats don't take.
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  Speaker 2: Over the House of Representatives or the Senate, then you're
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  Speaker 2: not going to see a ton in the way of
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  Speaker 2: lame duck bills just because the Republicans are going to
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  Speaker 2: say we can do this again next year. So again,
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  Speaker 2: I don't think this is going to be very much
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  Speaker 2: of an active lame duck period. Sometimes they are, sometimes
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  Speaker 2: they aren't, more often they're not. But we'll go ahead
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  Speaker 2: and get see from there.
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  Speaker 3: So I said, I promised they'd be a quick call.
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  Speaker 2: We're at about eight minutes right now, so that's where
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  Speaker 2: we're going to leave it. We are going to try
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  Speaker 2: and have this call next week. I will cancel it
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  Speaker 2: if nothing is going on. I don't want to waste
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  Speaker 2: any more your time. So watch for that email that
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  Speaker 2: comes from your subscription that comes out about it hour
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  Speaker 2: in advance. What we'll do is is that if nothing's happening,
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  Speaker 2: you'll get an email, probably about an hour advance, saying, hey,
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  Speaker 2: this call has been canceled. My intention is still have it,
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  Speaker 2: and to be honest, break some questions if you want
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  Speaker 2: to chat, or if I can find somebody around here
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  Speaker 2: who's not on vacation who's got some really cool piece
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  Speaker 2: of research. For example, the FCC on Thursday is going
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  Speaker 2: to vote to unlock their broadcast caps. Matt Chattenhelm is
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  Speaker 2: going to be looking at that meeting is going to
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  Speaker 2: be looking at the litigation risk. Afterwards, the doj ANTI
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  Speaker 2: Trust chief, the nominee, has his confirmation hearing on Wednesday.
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  Speaker 2: That's going to be somewhat of interesting that we're going
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  Speaker 2: to be looking at. And then finally we saw the
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  Speaker 2: new farm bill text that came out over the weekend
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  Speaker 2: that has nationwide E fifteen sales in there. So Brett
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  Speaker 2: Gibbs is currently looking at that. He's getting you for
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  Speaker 2: what it's worth on the farm bill?
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  Speaker 3: Is that right now? Let me back up here.
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  Speaker 2: So the farm bill has to be done by September thirtieth,
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  Speaker 2: and the farm bill historically and if you need to drop,
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  Speaker 2: feel free to drop, because I'm just going to take
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  Speaker 2: our eight minute call and go to about twelve minutes now,
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  Speaker 2: so I apologize for that. But the way that the
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  Speaker 2: farm Bill is actually structured right now is historically farm bill,
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  Speaker 2: the biggest impact of markets from the farm Bill was
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  Speaker 2: snap benefits formerly known as foodstamps.
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  Speaker 3: That has been taken out.
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  Speaker 2: Of the farm Bill by the one Big Beautiful Bill,
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  Speaker 2: and as a result, the farm Bill is now what's
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  Speaker 2: called the skinny farm Bill, crop reference, prices, other things
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  Speaker 2: that are important to the agricultural world. The text that
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  Speaker 2: just came out last week, and a full disclosure, I've
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  Speaker 2: not read it yet because today's my first day back
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  Speaker 2: in the office. It included nationwide annual E fifteen sale
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  Speaker 2: or gasoline. Brett Gibbs, our analyst, has been looking at
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  Speaker 2: this at this quite a bit. If you have any
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  Speaker 2: questions on this, just please feel free to reach out
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  Speaker 2: to Brett. But the thing here with the farm bill
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  Speaker 2: is is that if you've been reading my notes in
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  Speaker 2: the terminal, the farm Bill I've always said is going
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  Speaker 2: to have a small extension, it is most likely scenario.
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  Speaker 2: I still think that's going to be the case. But
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  Speaker 2: we are beginning to see chatter because the biggest hiccup
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  Speaker 2: from the farm built perspective from the Democratic side was
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  Speaker 2: the fact that they're trying to block the transfer of
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  Speaker 2: SNAP benefit payments from the federal government to state governments,
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  Speaker 2: essentially try and reverse what the One and Be Beautiful
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  Speaker 2: Bill did. The problem for the Republican side is is
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  Speaker 2: that this is all supposed to take place fairly soon,
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  Speaker 2: and you are beginning to see a little bit of
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  Speaker 2: Senate Republicans come out and say maybe we shouldn't transfer
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  Speaker 2: the payments of snaps to the states just yet. So
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  Speaker 2: I don't have a good feeling on where those negotiations are.
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure somebody listening to this call has a better
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  Speaker 2: idea than I do, because I haven't. I haven't talked
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  Speaker 2: with some friends over closer to this debate yet. But
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  Speaker 2: that's what I'm going to be working on this week,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: to try and get a better idea of where those
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  Speaker 2: farm build negotiations are. So I have any questions in
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  Speaker 2: the mid time in the interim, police feel free to
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  Speaker 2: reach out to Brett. So I'm going to stop there.
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  Speaker 2: I'm going to say thank you very much. Actually, just
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  Speaker 2: one other thing, popped into my mind, so I apologize
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  Speaker 2: for not being very well prepared this morning. Is keep
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: an eye on tariffs, you know, things like copper tariffs,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: things like other type of tariff announcements. President Trump has
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: an executive order today at one thirty. I'm not exactly
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: sure what that executive order is. But then President Trump
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: is going to move out to Nevada at California for
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: tomorrow and Wednesday to get a little bit out of
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Washington and try and tout some of his economic benefits.
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  Speaker 2: I just would keep an eye on any potential tariff
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  Speaker 2: announcements that that's usually when something like that occurs. So
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  Speaker 2: I promise i'ming to stop now. Thank you very much
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  Speaker 2: for listening. We really appreciate it, and then we will
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  Speaker 2: talk sooner.
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  Speaker 1: Care our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: For more from BI or to join this call live
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at Bloomberg
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: dot net. That's nd Ea n at Bloomberg dot net.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Come back to the podcast later today for the latest
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  Speaker 1: edition of Balance of Power in the