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Week 3 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, everybody's got at least two data points now,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: so we should have an idea about what these teams
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: actually are, right?
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: At least that's what I think.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get ready. Week three of the college
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: football season. These are the ten best games, and we're
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: picking all of them against the spread. Welcome in. Winning
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: cures everything. It's a college football podcast. I'm your host,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Hopefully
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: you You had a wonderful week two, and you are
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: ready to dive headfirst into week three. We have got
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: some bangers this weekend. We got some really, really good games. Obviously,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: we had great ones last week. Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, Oklahoma.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Really good ball games last week that.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Prepared us, I think. We now have some ideas. Maybe
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Michigan's not so bad. Maybe Ohio State isn't going to
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: be the best team all season. A lot of different
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: things we can learn from all of that. But we
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: decided we're going to do a little power rating for
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: all of them. And now we're going to decide who
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: wins each game and by how much. We got the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: 10 biggest games for this week. Let's go on and
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: talk about the record first. I think that's the best
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: way to go about this. Thus far on the show,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: as you can see on the screen, 25-18. That's 58%
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: against the spread. The model is 26-17. I maybe should
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: not be going against that as much. My underdog picks, 10-11.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Not great. Not great. But it is what it is. So,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: with that said, let's not waste a bunch of time.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Let's get to the top 10 games. Game number one,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: we're going down to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium down in.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Oxford, Mississippi.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: The Ole Miss Rebels host the LSU Tigers. And yes,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: it is the Lane Kiffin Bowl, if you will. Right now,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: LSU favored by three at most books, total of 58.5
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: on this. It's 6.30 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: on ABC, in case you want to watch it on
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: your TV screen. Ole Miss opened minus 1.5 on the
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: DraftKings Lookahead line. FanDuel's Week 3 opener was LSU minus 2.5,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: jumped out to 3. I think we got a 3.5
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: at one point, but that thing has bounced back. And
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I see 2.5s and 3s on the board. I mean,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: everybody has walked towards LSU on this pretty wild. The
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: total has come up from 57.5. It is now at 58.5.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: That's pretty wild, crossing the three there. Now, we'll see
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: this week. I think it's starting to settle around three.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: If it hangs at three all week, that's just books
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: not wanting to move off of that key number. I
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: don't think it's necessarily a lack of LSU money. LSU
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: 2-0 thus far on the season. Smoke Clemson 51-10 in
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the opener. Just an ugly 45-14 win last week over
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech. They had four turnovers, three Sam Leavitt picks
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: in that game. The defense has been the story. They've
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: given up 24 total points. Some of that has been
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the offense giving up points. They held Louisiana Tech to
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: 140 net yards with seven sacks. Leavitt, 574 passing yards,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Ole Miss survived Louisville in Week 1, 41-38
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: in the Music City kickoff over in Nashville. And then
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: last week, a 41-9 win over Charlotte. They didn't care
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: about that game. Trinidad Chambliss, 23-26 for 225 and two
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: TDs against Charlotte. Kiwan Lacy ran for 87 yards, two scores.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: He had a thigh bruise. I don't think that's going
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: to keep him out of this one. Yeah, exactly 41
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: points in both games for Ole Miss. The secondary appears
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to be the soft spot. Louisville hung 38 on them.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Really got some yardage there. You look at explosive margin,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: neither one of these teams is very good. You look
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: at PPA margin, LSU significantly better. LSU better in success margin.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Both teams turn the ball over. It's not great. September
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: of 2025 is the last time these two met. Ole
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Miss won that one 24-19. That was a Lane Kiffin-led
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss team. It was very close to the end
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: of the road for Brian Kelly. This is the first
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: time in 64 years that both teams are in the
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: top 10 for the Magnolia Bowl. I mean, if we
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: wanted to go 10 minutes on the Kiffin stuff, we
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: could do that. College game day is going to be there.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Right now, nosebleed seats reportedly start around $ 580. Premium tickets
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: are around $ 2, 000. So if you were wanting to get
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: into this game, it's going to be outrageous. Absolutely outrageous.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: You've got four ex-Rebels that are playing on LSU's team.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Ed Orgeron, who was the former Ole Miss coach, former
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: LSU coach, he's been away from the program.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: He had a health issue.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know exactly what's going to happen there.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: I doubt he's actually at the game. Chambliss against Blake
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Baker's defense. We're going to see what that looks like.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Because last year, Chambliss really put it on him. Let's see,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: he was 23 of 39, 314 yards. And Ole Miss
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: outgained LSU 480 to 254. That was still Blake Baker's defense.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But now he's got Lane Kiffin on his side.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: I'm curious. I'm curious.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: LSU 6-3-1 against the spread against Ole Miss over the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: last 10 meetings. I'm curious about the turnovers. Who's going
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: to turn the ball over more That's what I want
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: to know. I have got LSU as almost a six-point
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: favorite here. 5.9 is the model. LSU minus 5.9 is
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the model. Roster talent, LSU has an advantage, not by much.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Both are top 15 teams. There's just not a lot
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of difference between these two teams. I think that LSU
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: looked better against Clemson than Ole Miss has looked.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: But I.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Don't know exactly what that means. I do think at
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage, LSU is better. At least more talented.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Are they going to want this one more? You would
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: think they would want to win this one for Kiffin.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: You would think that they're good with being the villain here.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm going to bet this game. I
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: don't think I'm going to bet it. I think for
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the show, I'm going to go with LSU because I
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: think that they've got the coaching advantage. I think they've
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: got the talent advantage. The only thing they don't have
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: is that ravenous fan base that is just going to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: want blood and murder and everything else. Will they get it?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. But if anybody knows
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: how to stop Trinidad Chambliss, it's probably going to be
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin. I would imagine that maybe some players you
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: can't stop.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: Potentially.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: We'll see. But I am of the belief that LSU
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: is just a better team. And sometimes you put so
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: much pressure on yourself to win a game that it
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: ends up costing you. And I think that's what we
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: could see with Ole Miss here. Yeah, the home field
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: advantage is certainly going to be a big deal. But
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I wonder if the players are putting so much pressure
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: on themselves. that it could end up costing them. This thing,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: if it gets under, yeah, I mean, it's under three.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I said I'm not going to bet it. I mean,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: if this thing is still sitting at two and a
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: half come Thursday or Friday, I might take some LSU.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it, but it might be
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: worth a shot. So, for show purposes, we've got a
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: two and a half on the board. We're taking the Tigers.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: LSU minus two and a half. Game two, another SEC game,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: and we are talking about stuff that's going on on.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: The Plains. That's right.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Saturday, 6 p.m. Central Time. Of course, God's time zone.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: This one inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. Florida goes to Auburn. Florida
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: right now a two-and-a-half point favorite.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: The total sits at 53-and-a-half.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: This is interesting. Lookahead Lions had Auburn favored by like one-and-a-half.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: That's a four-point flip. to the road team. I've heard
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: people talk about some professional bettors pushing this thing out
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: to three, and it did get to three in a
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: couple of spots with Florida, but there's also the possibility
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: of some sharp Auburn buyback later on this week. I
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: think this thing will sit around two and a half.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I think every time it hits three, it's going to
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: get bought back. Every time it's at two and a half,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: there's going to be people that buy Florida. That is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: what it is. Florida right now on the season 2-0,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: they are outscoring opponents 118-24, but they have played absolute nobodies.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: FAU 66-21, 52-3 over Campbell, but the vibes in Gainesville
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: certainly feel different. Auburn is 2-0, and there's been nothing
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: pretty about it whatsoever. 17-16 over Baylor in Atlanta to
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: open up the season, and then of course the 43-8
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: win over Southern Miss last week that didn't feel good.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: As you can see on the screen, turnover margin, Auburn
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: is number 70, and that has everything to do with
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Byron Brown throwing three interceptions against Baylor in week one.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: The Auburn defense appears to be pretty legit. I think
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: they're going to be alright. Top 25 nationally in punt
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: return defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, tackles for loss, and
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: turnovers gained. So, DJ Durkin doing his normal thing. Everything
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: looks alright with that. The last meeting between these two
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: teams was in 2019. Florida won that one 24-13. He's
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: kind of been on ice ever since then. You've got
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: two first-year head coaches. First SEC game for both of them,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: John Sumrall, of course, at Florida. Auburn, Alex Golesh. They
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: have met one time before in 2024. Sumrall's Tulane team
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: beat USF 24.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: What am I talking about?
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: 45-10 in New Orleans. Tulane's quarterback at the time was
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Darian Mensah. Funny how things change, right? USF's was Byron Brown.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: You know, Brown followed Golesh from South Florida to Auburn.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: You got 60 new players on that Auburn roster. Golesh
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: beat Florida last season as the USF head coach. I
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: don't think that necessarily means anything. But still, there are
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: some players on the Florida team that were on that
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: team last year that might like a little revenge. Just saying.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Some of these betting trends to pay attention to. Summerall
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: is a road favorite, 7-3 against the spread.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: That's tasty.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Golash has a home dog, 1-2 against the spread in
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the last two seasons. That's just a three-game sample. I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: would treat it more as noise than anything else. It's
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: going to be sunny. It's going to be hot. High
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: of 91. 20% shower chance. Low around 72 later in
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the ballgame. This is going to be interesting. Going to
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: be very interesting. My number has Auburn by 3.8.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: I was....
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Completely shocked when I ran my model on Sunday morning.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would have never guessed that my numbers
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: liked Auburn here. But they do. But that just makes
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: me want to fight with the model. Although the model
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: has a better record so far this season than I do.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: You look at this and Auburn does have at least
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: experience advantages at certain position groups. As far as overall talent, Florida,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: slight edge there, number 12 to number 16. But when
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: you start looking at just who has played cleaner, who
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: looks like the better football team right now, I.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Think that's Florida. I know that Auburn's defense has looked
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: pretty good. I don't know that I trust either of
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: the offenses that they have played.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Florida, on the other hand, obviously has played a lot cleaner,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: has looked a lot better, and they've played absolute nobodies.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: At least Auburn has played against Baylor, who I don't
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot. There's not a lot of stock
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that I've invested in Baylor. But I.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Don't know.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I think when I look at this, I think Florida
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: finds a way to get this thing done. I don't
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: think that Golesh's bunch has everything wrapped up, put together yet.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: And I think that can end up costing you. So
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: in this position, I know the model says that the
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: wrong team is favored. I'm going to go against it.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: I feel good about Florida. I like them at the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. I like everything that they're doing. So
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I'm going to ride with the Gators. Give me Florida
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half on.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: The road here.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: We might as well just keep this SEC train rolling, right?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: We'll roll on over to Williams-Brice Stadium. Game number three,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: South Carolina- hosting the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and one of
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the big stories so far this year has been all
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: about Mississippi State and Kamario Taylor, right? I feel like
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of people have kind of forgotten about Lenora Sellers. Now,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: to be fair, Sellers has never played as well as
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Kamario Taylor has been playing through the first two games
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: of this season, but either way, this game, 3.15 p.m.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the SEC Network, and... how they didn't
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: find a prime spot for this one.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: I will never know. I will never know.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Cause this looks like it's going to be a whole
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: lot of fun right now. South Carolina favored by three
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: and a half at home. Total is sitting at 58
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and a half. Uh, it opened in the early lines
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: at South Carolina, minus seven and a half with a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: 54 and a half total. That's a four point move
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: towards the Bulldogs and a four point move.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Up on the total.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Um, pretty crazy, pretty crazy. Uh, I would shop this line, honestly.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what to think about it just yet, right?
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I think there's more Kamario Taylor love in the market
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: right now than I thought there would be. And as
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: a matter of fact, I'm shopping this thing right now
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: just to make sure. Yeah, we got a four out
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: there now.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Interesting.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: We got some stuff moving around. We got several fours
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: out there. Okay, so there's fours and three and a halves.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: Here's where we stand so far with.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: These two teams.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, 2-0, 57-0 win over Kent State, 45-9 win
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: over Towson. Defense has allowed one touchdown all year, but
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: they have played nobodies. Mississippi State, 2-0 this year, 62-13
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: over Louisiana Monroe. They won at Minnesota 38-13 last week
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and looked hominid in that one. Camario Taylor was 16-22
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: for 227 and three touchdowns in Minneapolis. Mississippi State's defense
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: has not forced a single turnover yet. Intriguing. Lenora Sellers,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: of course, been pretty awesome. 270 and three tutties through
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the air in week one. Had 119 rushing and a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: score in week two. South Carolina has won eight of
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: nine in the series. This is One of the more
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: lopsided recent runs in this league. I'm curious about injuries, right?
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Dylan Stewart and Jacarius Peek have still not played this season.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Another one has played a snap. Beamer said both are
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: practicing in full pads. They're training the right way. Pay
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: attention to the availability reports on Wednesday.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Just as we get closer to game time. I would
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: say that. Stewart's return would be awesome. Absolutely awesome for
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. Jeff Lebby, as far as betting trends go,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Lebby 7-3 against the spread on the road. Pretty wild.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: South Carolina is a home favorite of less than a touchdown.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Just 1-2 against the spread in the last two seasons.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Or since the start of 2024. CBS's model likes South
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Carolina minus 3.5 in more than 60% of their simulations.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I've got South Carolina minus 5.4.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: That's the model.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I'm intrigued. You start looking at success margin, PPA margin,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: how fast both of these offenses are playing.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: Lebby makes sense.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Kendall Briles coming in and taking over this offense for
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, it's like they've actually got somebody experienced that
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: knows what they're doing, and it's just a huge difference.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Number 11 in plays per minute for South Carolina so
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: far this season, Mississippi State number 7. Yeah, South Carolina
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: has a significantly more talented roster as far as recruiting rankings,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: et cetera, go. Number 21 there, Mississippi State number 54
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: on that. But, I mean, Kamario Taylor can... I mean,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: he's the dude. He's the guy. Do we think we
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: can get a good game out of Sellers? Do we
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: trust this Mississippi State defense? That's the other part of it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Zach Garnett back as the D.C.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: There, and he is.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: They've been awesome thus far. Again, ULM and Minnesota, I
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: don't know how much stock I'm really putting into this.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: I'm curious how much... How much money or how much
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: actual love there is for South Carolina in the market?
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: What is moving this number? I'm going to go with
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. I think there's going to be a lot
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: of people coming in on Mississippi State. I'm hoping I
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: can get a better number so that I can actually
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: bet it. I don't like having that hook there. But
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: as far as show purposes go, I'm riding with the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: favorite again. One more time, give me South Carolina minus
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: three and a half at home. I think this is
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the beginning of good things for Shane Beamer, but we'll see.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting game.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: So give me South Carolina minus three and a half,
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: South Cackalacka at home over the Bulldogs. Are you tired
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• 19:54
  Speaker 2: and a way to support the show directly? Head over
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures and become part of the community today.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Game number four, we're finally moving away from SEC matchups
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: and we are talking about Maybe the second biggest ACC
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: matchup in that conference the entire season. And it's happening
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: in week three.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Louisville hosting SMU. This one 2.30 p.m. Central Time
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: on ESPN2, I believe is what they decided. A lot
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: of people upset about that. SMU fans really feeling like
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: they got the slight on that. I don't know why.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Why do we care? You can watch every game on
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: TV now. It makes no difference. Anyway, Louisville is favored
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: by 1.5 points. Total is 59.5 now. There are some 2.5s
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: out there. I see ESPN bet a couple other spots. But, yeah, 2.5
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: is out there.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Total opened at 56.5. It has jumped up to 59.5.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: It's kind of surprising. Highest total on the board this week. Like, interesting.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Very interesting. SMU 2-0 thus far on the season. Sloppy
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: 27-24 win at Florida State on Labor Day. And then
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: last week, 56-10 win over UC Davis. Kevin Jennings playing
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: awesome thus far. He did have two interceptions in there,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: but he's got eight touchdowns, 767 yards passing. I mean,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: just nuts. Louisville is 1-1. They did lose to top
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: 10 Ole Miss in Nashville last The day before Labor Day,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: lost 41-38 in that game. And then they just hammered
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Villanova last week, 59-13. Lincoln Keenholz, 750 total yards, 7 touchdowns,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: 300-plus passing in both games. Did have 4 scores against Villanova.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Louisville is averaging 48.5 points a game. That's crazy. That's crazy.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: The last time these two teams met.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: SMU just walloped them. 38-6 last November. SMU also won
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: this game 34-27 in 2024. Louisville has not beaten this
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: team since they joined the ACC. Pretty crazy.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: Jennings has owned the matchup over the last two meetings.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: 78% completions, 584 yards, three touchdowns, no picks against Louisville
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: the last two times out. The winner of this game
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: is going to be the ACC co-leader with Miami, and
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: has the inside track to Charlotte.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Period. A lot of people picked.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: The winner of this game to play against Miami in
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the ACC title game. The game is in Louisville. Like,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: just wild. This is the only ranked opponent left on
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Louisville's schedule. And to be fair, Louisville has struggled with
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks, and this is probably the most mobile quarterback
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: they're going to see all season. Looking at some of
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the trends, Jeff Brom as a home favorite of less
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: than a touchdown, 1-5 against the spread in the last
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: two seasons.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: SMU as a road underdog, which they.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Currently are at 1.5, 4-8 against the spread since the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: start of the 2024 season. There's no trend that can
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: point you in any direction. The roster talent for both
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: of these, No.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: 25, No. 28, very even.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: I feel like SMU has the quarterback advantage, but do
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: we really know that? I mean, I don't feel great
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: about it. Louisville has the running back advantage. I feel
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: like they've got the skill talent advantage. As far as
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: position units go, I think they've got the advantage pretty
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: much everywhere. And yet, I don't know how much I
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: trust them as a favorite. Even as a favorite of
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: only one and a half.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I do think that this is the spot where you
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: put a little bit of pressure on Kevin Jennings, you
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: can get him to make a mistake. I think that's
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: where we're getting at with this. SMU right now, number
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: 19 in turnover margin. Louisville right now, number 15. They
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: are taking care of the ball. They have made some mistakes. Obviously,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: they lost to Ole Miss already. That was to be expected.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Louisville finds a way to get this one done. I'm
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: going with another, right? But this one's at least a
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: home favorite, right? This one's at least a home favorite.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I guess South Carolina was too. Uh, give me the
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Cardinals minus one and a half. I know, I know
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: that SMU has owned these guys the last two seasons.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: This one feels different. This one's at home. I think
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Louisville is in a better position. I think the roster
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: is better. Uh, We haven't gotten to really see them
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: in a dominant setting other than against Villanova, which I
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: don't know how many people were actually watching that. But
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I'm of the belief that Louisville is a better football team.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: So give me the favorites again. Louisville minus one and
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: I think they cover and they take the inside track
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: in that ACC race. Game number five, we got a
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Friday night banger in the Big 12.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Houston going to Texas Tech. 7 p.m. Central Time Friday
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: on Fox. We're going to Lubbock. We're going to finally
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: see if Texas Tech has just been keeping some stuff
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: geared up for a game like this. They ain't been
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: real good. They have not been real good. Texas Tech
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: right now favored by 9.5. The total is 53.5 on
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: this one. Open Texas Tech minus 13.5. It blasted all
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: the way through 10. Four points of Houston buyback. This
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: one opened before either team had played. But it doesn't
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: seem like people are nearly as scared of Texas Tech
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: right now as they were back in August. Right? So far,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Tech 2-0. You know, 33-10 over Abilene Christian. That wasn't great.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: 35-24 at Oregon State. That wasn't great.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: The fun part about this is that we do have....
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: A common opponent for both of these already, and we're
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: only in week three. Both of them have played Oregon State.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Oregon State hung around with both of them. Oregon State
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: was not supposed to hang around with either one of them. Houston, 2-0,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: 33-20 over Oregon State in week one, 533 total yards.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Then last week, they blew out Southern. Houston won by
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: 13 at home, Tech won by 11 on the road
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: in those two games. I don't think any of it
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: really makes any kind of a difference, to be honest.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech has won six straight in the series. They've
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: won 11 of the last 12 against Houston, including 49-28
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: in Houston last season. Texas Tech has allowed fewer than
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: 18 points in each of its last nine home wins.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: That is the longest such streak by a Big 12
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: program since 2002. Pretty crazy. Pretty crazy to think about.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Looking at the rest week, the short week angle, all
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff, Tech played Saturday night on the
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: West Coast. They got home at 4.30 a.m. on Sunday.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: McGuire said that playing on Friday night is already tough,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: but then you're playing a road game and getting back
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: that late. You look at Houston, big benefit for them.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: They blew Southern out. I don't think most of their
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: team played at quarterback. They were even out before halftime. Yeah,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: that's the way it goes.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Injuries. Injuries.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Tech gets the safety Brendan Jordan back. He served a
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: two-game suspension for a team rules violation, not for an injury.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: The edge, Trey White, the tight end, Terrence Carter Jr.,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: both are turning in the right direction. They did good
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: runs on Monday. The five-star freshman edge, Damian Guyton, he
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: is in the mix as well. Quarterback is sophomore Will Hammond.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Came back early from torn ACL. He has not looked
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: like he can really run yet. And his mobility is
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: a big part of his game, so.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: His ADOT right now is 7.1 yards. That's 39th out
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: of 44 qualifying quarterbacks.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Ain't great.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Nearly two-thirds of his throws so far within 10 yards
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: of the line. I'm certain that he is going to
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: turn that thing loose in this ballgame.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Very curious. Very, very curious.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: As far as betting angles, Texas Tech is 5-1 against
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: the spread in the last six against Houston. Tech is
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: a favorite of home, or sorry, as a home favorite team.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Of 7 plus points, 12-3 against the spread. Willie Fritz
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: as a road dog. Also really damn good. 7-2 against
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: the number. Excuse me. Houston has covered 9 of their
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: last 12 road games. So, I mean, this thing is haywire. Haywire. Haywire.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: My model number matches the actual spread. Model number, it's
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: got nine and a half. You look at full roster talent,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is better, number 17 to number 30. And
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: if you guys are dealing with allergies like me, these
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: fall allergies or September allergies or whatever you want to
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: call it, call it, it is the most infuriating crap.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: That I have to deal with every year.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: If you guys have been watching this show, you know
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I've been scratching my nose to make sure I don't
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: sneeze in the middle of the thing. Looking at position units, etc.,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Tech obviously has the roster advantage. They obviously have the
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: position advantage. Basically everywhere except for quarterback. And even then,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: how much do we really trust? Good gracious, I didn't
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: write his name down. The Houston quarterback.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: What's his name?
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I'm recording this crap too late. Either way, the kid
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: that transferred from Texas A & M. How much do
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: we trust that guy? I don't know that I do.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Defensive line against the offensive line. Offensive line against the
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: defensive line. I think Tech just has a big advantage here.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Playing at home, I think, is a big deal. I
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: know it's a short week, travel week, all that kind
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: of stuff for Texas Tech, but I just feel like
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: this team is better than Houston. I'm not buying into
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the Houston mess. And something has happened while I'm talking
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: to you. This thing was 9 1⁄2. It's down to
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: 7 1⁄2 at almost.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Is it every book?
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're at 7 1⁄2. When this thing opened, there
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: was a lot of steam on Houston. I don't remember
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: if I put a bet in on Houston The more
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: that I started reading into this game, this feels like
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: the one where Texas Tech kind of gets the ship righted.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to see.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: We're going to see.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Let's go with the dog. I'm going with too many favorites.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I'm going with too many favorites. I think Houston keeps
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: it close. I think Tech wins. How's that? We can
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: get it 7.5. My model says Tech minus 9.5. I'm
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: going to go Houston plus the 7.5. I'm going to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: go against the model. Feels like a touchdown game. We
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: can handle that.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Alright, give me Houston. I know you guys watching this
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: are like.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: What the hell is he doing? I don't know what
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I'm doing. This stuff is insane. Like, I don't have
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: a good feel. So, I know the model is giving
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: me crazy stuff, but Yeah, give me Houston.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Why not? I like Willie Fritz. Let's go with Houston,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: plus 7.5.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Game number six, we got an ACC Big Ten split,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: or tilt, or whatever you want to call it. Maryland
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: is hosting Virginia Tech. And I will tell you, when
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: they had Virginia Tech on the schedule, they did not
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: anticipate James Franklin being there. at least I wouldn't think so.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Virginia tech is a three and a half point road favorite.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: This one, 6 30 PM central time on Fox, uh,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: or it might be FS one.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: I don't remember.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Either way.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Doesn't matter because this one's on Saturday night and Virginia
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: tech opened as a, yeah, one and a half point
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: favorite at draft Kings. They are three, three and a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: half elsewhere. Uh, Yeah, movement towards the Hokies. Kind of interesting,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: if you ask me.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Kind of interesting. Virginia Tech so far this year, 2-0
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: in complete demolitions. Complete demolitions of the teams they have
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: played thus far.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're still sitting at 3.5.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: Total of 53.5 on this. I do see a 54.5 offshore.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: 73-3 over VMI.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: 44-21 over Old Dominion. That is a combined 117-24 for
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. Ethan Grunkemeier, 224 and two touchdowns in the opener.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver, Quashon Brown had 109 and a score. Maryland
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: is also 2-0. They're looking pretty good. 62-0 over Hampton.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: 38-14 at UConn. I think that's a better win than
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: it looks. Again, Jason Candle. I don't know, but Jason Candle,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: as a dog... has normally been really good at covering
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: in those situations, but, man, Maryland took him behind the
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: woodshed a little bit. The Maryland quarterback, Malik Washington, had
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: 186 and a touchdown in the opener. This is an
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: interesting game for him because he considered both of these
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: schools before he committed to Mike Loxley. Last meeting in
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: the series was in 2013. Maryland won that 27-24 in
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: overtime at Lane Stadium. They did meet in the 2021
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Pinstripe Bowl. That was a 54-10 Maryland win in that one.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech's last trip up to College Park, 2009. That
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: was a 36-9 win. And the quarterback at the time
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: was Tyrod Taylor, who had three touchdown passes in that one.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: This is part of the James Franklin redemption tour. Franklin
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: always hated Maryland whenever they didn't give him the job.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: He was supposed to be the coach in waiting behind
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Ralph Regan. He was the offensive coordinator there. They didn't
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: give him the gig. He went and took the Vanderbilt
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: head coaching job, and the rest is history. You all
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: know what happened after that. Vanderbilt, huge success there. Turned
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: it around, went to Penn State, did have some successful
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: years there, didn't quite get him over the mountaintop, and
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: now he's at Virginia Tech, and he's got some people believing.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: He got them believing right now. Yeah, Loxley's seat is
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: pretty hot. That's a pretty big storyline with this one.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: This is, like, you win this one, you're probably going 7-5,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I guess. Something like that. You lose it, and yeah,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: 6-6 is still in reach, but, like, you got enough
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: for a bowl game? Are we sure you can make
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: a bowl game? Probably be wise to win this one
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: at home. Franklin is 5-1 against Loxley since 2019. Maryland
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: has been outscored 141-29. and the three of those that
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: were played in College Park. Every time Franklin goes back there,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: he annihilates them. Both of these staffs are recruiting the
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: same kids in both states. They're expecting a sellout here.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. Maryland running back DeJuan Williams, who
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: had 116 yards, two touchdowns in the opener, he is
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: not expected to play. He didn't travel with the team
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: in Week 2. That's their lead back. Iverson Howard went
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: down against UConn. Loxley already said he's going to be available.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Franklin as a road favorite over the last, since the
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: beginning of the 2024 season. 11-4 against the spread. Penn
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: State went 33-9 straight up as a road favorite under Franklin.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Loxley in non-conference games, 13-6 against the spread.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: That's 68%.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: That's the best-sized sample on the whole trends board in
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: 19 games. That's, that's pretty good. Locksley is a home
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: dog of less than seven over the last two seasons,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: three and two against the spread kind of noisy, like not,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: not a ton to really put your hat on there,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: but even still, he does better than he, than he doesn't.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Maryland's problem is the defensive front in the passing game. Uh, those,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: those have shown up, but the run game has not
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: been tested. This is going to be interesting. Uh, Maryland
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: was number one in the country in adjusted returning production.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech was number four. As far as experience goes,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: these two are pretty right there, but Virginia Tech has
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: the more talented roster, which I think people would be
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: surprised by. Number 26 in all three full roster talent. Maryland,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: number 45. You look at success margin, you look at
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: PPA margin, Virginia Tech right now is in the top
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: ten in both. But Virginia Tech is not very explosive.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Number 131. in explosivity margin. Maryland, however, not very explosive
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: on their side either. Number 87. Both teams top 35
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: in pace. Virginia Tech has turned the ball over a
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: little bit. Maryland has not. This is an interesting spot.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: You know that Mike Loxley would love to be able to.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Take it to James Franklin in this spot. But there
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: is so much momentum involved going with Virginia Tech right now.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: But this feels like the kind of spot where, okay,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: it's a three and a half. I mean, a field
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: goal would give me a cover for Maryland at home.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's a better than 50% chance that Maryland
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: wins this game. So I'm going to go with the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: dog on it. I'm going to take the Terps at
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: home plus three and a half. And I might feel
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: foolish about this, but this Virginia Tech team is not
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Penn State.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: They don't have the.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Same level of... of players, and while they do have
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: a more talented roster, I do believe that Maryland, just
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: an idea, I think they got the better quarterback. So,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: and I think Michael Oxley's been gearing up for this
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: one a little bit, so we're going to see what
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: happens here. We're going to see. So who knows? Yeah,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: give me the Terrapins. I don't feel great about it.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: But three and a hook?
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: Give me the home team. Give me the home team.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Maryland plus three and a half. Game number seven, you
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: knew we couldn't stay away from the SEC for that long.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M hosting the Kentucky Wildcats. This one, 2.30 p.m.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: A & M....
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Now is out to a 16.5 point favorite. Total of 49. 49.5
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: on this. Not just 49.5. I don't see any actual
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: 49s left. It opened 15.5 with a 48.5 total. Spread
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: has gone up a point. Total has gone up a point.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: This is intriguing. This is almost exactly the same number
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: that they laid against Arizona State last week. And That
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: one was uncomfortable until the fourth quarter. A & M
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: hadn't looked great. My model in this, by the way,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: has A & M minus 23. So I can understand
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: why it's heading that direction. A & M 2-0, they
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: beat Missouri State 50-0. Then 48-20 over Arizona State last week.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: The score looks great.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: The four Arizona State turnovers that included two pick sixes,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: 24 unanswered in the fourth quarter, just break this thing open.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Are we sure about Marcel Reed?
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Eh, are we sure?
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe against Kentucky's defense. That would make sense. Kentucky 1-1,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: they beat Youngstown State. And we're up on Alabama last week.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: 17-13 at the half. And... Then they get absolutely run
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: out of their own stadium in the second half.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: 32-0. Bama wins 45-17, and it was.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Mean, they had three straight turnovers in the middle of it.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: They just... It was bad. This is only the fourth
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: meeting ever between Kentucky and Texas A & M.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: A & M leads it 2-1. Last one was in
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: 2018 back in Kyle Field. A & M won that
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: one 20-14 in overtime. This is only the second meeting
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: since A & M joined the SEC in 2012. Kentucky,
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: year one with Will Stein. I don't think he's going
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: to be bad. I just think he may not have
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: the dudes just yet. Former Oregon OC, obviously the offense
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: looked vanilla against Youngstown State and pretty nonexistent against Alabama,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: if we are going to be honest. They had one
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: rushing yard in the second half.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: That was it.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: The former Kentucky quarterback, Cutter Boley, Is that Arizona State?
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: He's the guy that gave A & M problems last week.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: That wasn't until he turned the ball over. Kenny Minchie
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: is the Kentucky quarterback. I think he's all right.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: A & M' s offense.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Is the concern here. I think people are still worried because, yeah,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: they got two big wins, but I don't think they
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: feel great about either of them.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Like, I wouldn't.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: The talent advantage certainly is with Texas A & M,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: number 10 in full roster talent. Kentucky's number 37. Where
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Kentucky may have had advantages last week with their defensive
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: line and their offensive line, they're not going to have
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: those this week against A & M. And against Alabama,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: it didn't really look like an advantage either. It did early,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: but not after that. Success margin looks pretty good. PPA
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: margin looks pretty good for A & M. Not for Kentucky. Kentucky,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: number 97 in success rate margin, number 100 in particular
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: points added margin. Kentucky has been more explosive. They are
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: faster on offense. Plays per minute, number 74. A & M,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: number 117. And as far as turnover margin, Kentucky, number 42.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: A & M is number 9, which tracks because, I mean,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: you watched that ballgame last week. Betting trends, A &
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: M 3-7 against the spread as a home favorite of 7+.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Kentucky has a road dog of 10 or more, 4-1
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: against the spread since the start of the 2024 season.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: It's only a five-game sample, so kind of temper the
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: expectation there, but the trends kind of point the same
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: way here. A & M is not great at covering
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: at home, at least not historically. Kentucky has been great,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: but this is a new coach with Kentucky, and A
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: & M is finding different ways to score.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: I'll say that.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: SP Plus has got this A & M by 20.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I've got A & M by 23. The trends obviously
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: say otherwise. I think that's the debate here. We don't
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: trust A & M. We don't really trust Kentucky either.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Do we trust trends here or do we just look
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: at overall talent, just overall numbers and be like, A
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: & M is so much better. It's not going to matter.
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: If this thing stays below 17, I.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Might make this an actual bet. As for now, for
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: the show, I'm going with the favorite. A move like that, yeah, 16.5
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: is still good for me. Give me A & M
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: to cover 16.5. I don't trust this Kentucky team yet.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Kenny Minchie's first road start against what appears to be
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty ball-hawking defense with Mike Ogo and Bunch. I'll
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: take the fighting Aggies. Give me A & M minus 16.5.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Game number eight, we got an ACC-SEC clash in Nashville.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: NC State traveling to visit Vanderbilt. This one, 11.45 a.m.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on the SEC Network. It's
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: at beautiful First Bank Stadium in Nashville. The number right now,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Vandy favored by 4.5. Make sure that number hadn't moved
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: since I wrote my notes down.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: eleven forty five a m and we've got dandy uh...
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: three-and-a-half okay so we get a little in c state
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: love in the market total of fifty one and a
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: half on this one that's down from fifty two and
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: a half intriguing that's down for fifty four half totals
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: come down quite a bit intriguing As far as where
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: they stand, Vanderbilt 2-0. Had a 28-9 win over Austin Peay.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: 35-26 win over Delaware last week. The Delaware game was
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: a lot closer than anybody in Nashville wanted. I'll tell
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: you that. NC State 1-1. They are... I mean, they
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: look great against Richmond.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: 73-0. I mean, they just... They walloped these guys.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: 428 yards rushing.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: They held Richmond to 110. 734 total yards. I mean,
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: just C.J. Bailey went Bananas.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Absolutely bananas. This one is a sellout for Vanderbilt. So,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I think they feel good about this one. The 34-8
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: loss to Virginia was about as ugly as it gets.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: And NC State bounced back two weeks later. They didn't
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: play in Week 1. They played last week. This is
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: the fourth all-time meeting between NC State and Vanderbilt. They
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: have not played in 10 years. NC State beat Vandy
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: in 2016. This is.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: This is when you really get to see about life
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: after Diego Pavia. Right?
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Vandy finished ranked number 15. First double-digit win season in
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: 122 years of the program. Pavia was the Heisman runner-up. Like,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: how much of this was him? And how much of
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: it is Clark Lee and company?
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Blaise Berlowitz got the week one start. Jared Curtis did play.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: Um....
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we're going to see this week
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: because Clark Lee has come out and said that he's
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: going to play the best 11 every week.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: What does that mean?
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Curtis was 7 of 9 for 60 yards in his
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: first debut, in his debut. NC State, this is their
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: non-conference power for requirement game. Dave Doran's program has been
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: a bowl fixture, but... Can they get the defense fixed? Yeah,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: shutting out Richmond is one thing. They could not get
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: off the field against Virginia. I don't expect Vanderbilt to
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: be able to run at the same rate that Virginia did.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Virginia's got like the fourth best offensive line in the country.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: A lot of grad students there. I mean, just some
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: old dudes. Vanderbilt ain't got that. But they do have
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: a better offensive line than NC State's defensive line.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: So what does that mean?
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: As far as full roster talent, You're looking at number
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: 40 and number 41. So, pretty much a wash here,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: if we're being honest with ourselves. NC State number 74
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: in success margin. Vandy is number 53. Vandy number 64
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: in PBA margin. NC State more explosive than Vanderbilt. Number
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: 32 in explosivity margin. Vandy number 109. As far as
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: plays per minute, both going kind of slow. Back half.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Number 98 and number 107. Turnover margin in NC State,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: not great. Number 91 there so far this season. Vandy
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: is number 42. I don't trust NC State's defense. My
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: model has Vandy minus 5.9, and yet the model is
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: going against Vanderbilt. The Delaware game certainly scared some people.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: I know that much. And I don't blame people for
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: being scared about it. But Vandy at home, I think
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: they got some position units that are significantly better than
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: what NC state's bringing to the table. And I think
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: maybe this just is what NC state is now. Um,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're, I don't think they're as good
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: as this Vanderbilt team, which is certainly saying something because
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: you would have never thought that just a few years ago. Um,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: this is, this is interesting. Vanderbilt has won nine straight
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: road games. That is their longest streak in a decade
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: or in decades. Uh, Projections have got this around four
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: points for Vandy. But again, we've had some NC State
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: buyback this week. This thing is down to three. It
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: might be a Vandy play for me. But as it
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: sits right now, three and a half, I'll go with
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: the favorite again. Give me the SEC team over the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: ACC team. I will take Vanderbilt to cover the three
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and a half. Again, the model has it Vandy minus 5.9.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I think they'll cover. Give me Vandy minus three and
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: a half here. I think they cover at home.
• 51:16
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• 51:20
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• 51:24
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• 51:28
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• 51:32
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• 51:35
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• 51:37
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• 51:43
  Speaker 2: Game number nine, we got another ACC-SEC tilt. And let's
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: go to T-Town. Why not?
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: 2.30 p.m. Central Time on ABC. Rematch from last year's
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: opening week game where Florida State stunned Alabama. And then
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Alabama turned around and made it to the playoff. And
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Florida State completely fell apart. Who knows? Florida State already
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: has a loss this year. Uh, so it's not like
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: they're going to be sneaking up on anybody as far
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: as that is concerned. Uh, the spread right now, um,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: 20 and a half in favor of Alabama, 49 and
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: a half total opened Alabama minus 15 and a half
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: on the, on the look ahead line. It opened 18
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: and a half this weekend or this, yeah, on Sunday. Um,
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: rose up to 20 and a half. It's just sitting
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: there now. The total dropped.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: From 52 and a half down to 49 and a half.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: This is pretty crazy to me. Like, I think Florida
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: State isn't awful, but I.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: Don't know.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: It's pretty wild. Pretty wild. Bryant-Denny Stadium should be rocking.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: I will tell you that. Uh, This is, everybody's got
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: revenge on their minds for the way things went last
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: year in Tallahassee. So far, Alabama 2-0 on the season,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: 48-10 winners over East Carolina, then 45-17 at Kentucky last week.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: They scored the final 32 points of the game. We
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: talked about that earlier.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: The sophomore quarterback, Keelan Russell, turned it over on the
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: first two possessions, still won the game going away. Daniel
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Hill ran for 140 yards on the ground. Keelan Russell
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: was Pretty good, 29-45, 399 yards passing so far, one touchdown,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: two interceptions, 77 rushing yards and a score. He's been
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: sacked five times. He's still getting the hang of it.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: That second half in Lexington last week, that's the version
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: that they won in Tuscaloosa.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Florida State, 1-1, has already had a buy-in there. They
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: beat New Mexico State in Week 0. They were not
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: exactly dominant in that game. It was 34-17. It was
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: a 10-point game until late. They lost at home to
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: SMU on Labor Day, 27-24, but they got four turnovers
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: in that game and still couldn't get the win. So
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: they've had some extra prep time. They were off last week.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: They're running back.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: Croma, 231 yards, two touchdowns, back-to-back 100-yard games.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: And the quarterback is... The Auburn transfer, Ashton Daniels, that
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: played against Alabama last year, had some success against Bama
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: on the Plains in the last game of the regular
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: season last year. Mike Norvell is on the hot seat.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Big time. I think that's putting it mildly. I don't
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: anticipate he is there at the end of the season.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: We'll say that.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: But, you know, again, Florida State won this game 31-17
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: last year. Bama was a double-digit road favorite. It is a.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Big-time revenge spot. Big-time revenge spot. When you look at
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: what Florida State.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Has done on the road, or I guess has not
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: done on the road, they have not won outside Doe
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Campbell since November 25th of 2023. That is over 1,000
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: days now. They are 0-11 away from home in that stretch.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: They are 0-9 in true road games. Six of those
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: losses are by double digits. Bama is expected to get
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: the right guard Michael Carroll back this week. Bama as
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: a home favorite of more than 10 points. 10-2 against
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the spread in the last 12. Mike Norvell as an underdog.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: 3-7-1 against the spread. And Mike Norvell on the road
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: is 1-8 against the spread in the last 9. So
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: that's since the start of the 2024 season. Florida State
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: did have a bye week to prepare for this one.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: But it's in Tuscaloosa this year. I think it's a
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: lot of points. I think it's a lot of points. 20.5
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: is crazy for a team that's got this much talent.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Florida State is top 25 in the country in full
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: roster talent.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: They haven't looked good.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Bama is top 20 in success margin and predicted points
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: added margin. Florida State is outside of the top 100.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: In both of those. Bama worse in turnover margin. Florida
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: State got four turnovers against SMU. Couldn't convert all of it.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Both teams kind of....
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: I don't even know how to explain it.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Number 86, number 105 in plays per minute. So another
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: one goes fast, but they're not like deathly slow either.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Another team, very explosive. Number 75 in explosivity margin for Alabama.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Number 80 for Florida State. You start looking at position units,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: there's not like a drastic advantage for Alabama. Really young
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: football team. Like super young. But they are number 3
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: in the country and on 3 full roster talent. Again,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Florida State number 22.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: My model has it Bama minus 17.3. I think Bama.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: wins the game comfortably I don't think they cover so
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: yeah I bet against Bama the last two weeks in
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: a row they've covered both of those I think this
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: one Florida State hangs around just enough just enough to
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: stay within that 20.5 I will take Florida State here
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think they win by any stretch of the
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: imagination I know the trends certainly say go the opposite
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: direction But this thing moved a lot.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, a lot of points. And it could end
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: up over 21 at some point. So give me Florida
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: State to cover the 20.5.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: I think they fight for Mike Norville a little bit here.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: After this one, the wheels could fall off.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: But I think they fight.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: I certainly do. So give me the Seminoles plus 20.5.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Game number 10, last game of the show for us,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: at least for this show. Clemson hosting North Carolina.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: And good gracious. I mean, this is just....
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: What a ridiculous, ridiculous game. 11 a.m. Central Time on ESPN.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: This one at Memorial Stadium in Death Valley. How... What
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: is the temperature of that fan base? Hmm?
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: For Clemson.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: We know what North Carolina's is. Although they might be
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: a little more fired up because North Carolina is 2-0.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that here in a minute. This one
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: opened in the lookahead lines at 9.5 in favor of Clemson.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: FanDuel's week 3 open was 5.5. It's already down to 3.5.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: And I'm double checking to make sure it has not
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: dropped more. No, it's still sitting 3.5. Total is at 44.5.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: That is the lowest total on the board this week.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Clemson's quarterback, Chris Vizina, hurt his non-throwing elbow against Georgia Southern.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Sweeney said the quarterback couldn't feel his left arm. He's
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: week to week. Pete Nacos reports it's probably going to
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: be one to two weeks. The true freshman, Tate Reynolds,
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: makes his first career start. He's a three-star out of Arizona.
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: We heard all offseason about how, oh, he's pushing Vazina,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: and he's really pushing for the starting job, and et cetera,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: et cetera.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: We'll see. We'll see.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: He relieved Vazina by halftime in the LSU blowout. He
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: went 16 of 27 for 178 with 14 carries against
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern. He led five scoring drives. Sweeney said he
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: liked it, but, and I like this quote, he did
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: some really boneheaded stuff.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: He's a freshman.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: A three-star freshman at that. So, you know, I don't
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: think anybody was really confident in either one of these quarterbacks. Clemson,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: one and one, they got absolutely housed at LSU, 51
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: to 10 in the opener. Um, And then a 22-7
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: win over Georgia Southern that just didn't feel great. Like,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: at all. The offense from Chad Morris has just been abysmal.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: And that's putting it mildly. North Carolina 2-0 in Belichick's
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: year two. 15-10 winners over TCU in Dublin in week zero.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: Then they handled ETSU at home last week. Billy Edwards Jr.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: threw for 232 yards in Ireland. Billy Edwards in this
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Bobby Petrino offense looks pretty good. The last meeting between
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: these two was last year in Chapel Hill. Clemson won
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: it 38-10. Clemson had a lot of NFL talent last year.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know that they got that this year. I
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: don't know that that's there. Belichick, this one's interesting.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Belichick appears to be enjoying himself a little more. There's
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: still a lot of chaos going on with that North
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina front office. Dabo Sweeney is catching a lot of.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Heat as well.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is just storyline game. The model has
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Clemson minus 7.7. Now, I do still have some priors
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: in here, but... You look at the full roster talent,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Clemson number 20, North Carolina number 32. If you look
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: at how these two teams are playing, the LSU game
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: is doing a lot of work here. Number 129 in
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: success rate margin for Clemson. Number 132 for PPA margin.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: They're number 116 in explosivity margin. Number 91 in turnover margin.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, on the other hand, number 26 in success margin,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: number 25 in PBA margin, explosivity margin. They're number 61.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: They have played like the better football team. Just insane.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Just insane. Clemson, as a home favorite of a field
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: goal or more, 3-10 against the spread since the start
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: of the 2024 season.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's crazy. That's crazy.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Before you lay a number with Clemson, I mean, you
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: really got to think about it. Clemson is 3-1 against
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: the spread in the last four against North Carolina. Belichick
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: has a road dog of 3-plus since he has been
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: at North Carolina. He is 1-3 against the spread. It's
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: a tiny sample. He's only had a handful of these
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: kind of games. But the number is still there. The
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: total of 44.5 is interesting to me. Two struggling offenses.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: You got a Belichick defense with a full week game
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: plan against a freshman. This is interesting. That number may
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: be a little too low to be able to play
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: the under anymore.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: But I trust Bobby Petrino. I think that there is
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: a world.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: where you really start having questions about Dabo Sweeney this weekend.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: My number likes it. Again, the model is Clemson minus 7.7.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go to North Carolina here. They are
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: playing like the better football team. I'm going to go
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: with the dog. Give me the Tar Heels. Plus three
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. This could end up being a field
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: goal game. Clemson finds a way to win it, maybe.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: But.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: Would it shock me if Belichick and company get all
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the noise out of the way and find a way
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: to win this game and go to 3-0 and people
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: are going, what in the hell is happening here? I
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: could see it. I could absolutely see it. So, that's
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: what we're going to do.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: We'll ride with North Carolina. Unbelievable.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Can't believe those words just came out of my mouth.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to post the recap over at buymeacoffee.com
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures. Of course, subscribe over there if.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: You've not already. $ 5 a month, $ 50 for the year.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: The official plays will be over there this week. I
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: will actually have some official plays this week, so make
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: sure and stay tuned on that.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: But for now, we're going to get out of here.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: This thing is going long. It is what it is.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: But I do appreciate you guys watching every week. I'm
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: having an absolute blast doing this this year. I've been
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: having to stay up way too late to do this.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: But I love.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Talking college football. Still doing it. Still rocking and rolling.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: Still enjoying myself. Hopefully you are as well. Share the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: show out. Tell your friends about it. All that good stuff.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Jump in the comments.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: I love hearing from you guys. But with that said,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: let's get out of here. Take care of yourself. Take
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: care of each other. God bless college football. And hopefully
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
• 1:05:41
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• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: out the web store.