Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/30/26: MAGA Meltdown Over SCOTUS Rulings, Prof Pape On Iran Deal Collapsing, NBA Vets Caught Gambling

Transcript

6/30/26: MAGA Meltdown Over SCOTUS Rulings, Prof Pape On Iran Deal Collapsing, NBA Vets Caught Gambling · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal.
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  Speaker 1: Good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. We have a
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: huge show, Crystal.
• 0:38
  Speaker 4: Don't we Is that what I'm supposed to say here
• 0:39
  Speaker 4: in Stager's booster seat.
• 0:41
  Speaker 5: Indeed we do. Yeah.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Well, we got a bunch of gods decisions yesterday, some
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: quite consequential ones.
• 0:47
  Speaker 5: There are more expected today.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: We also have a little bit of reaction from the
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Steve Bannon and Benny Johnson's of the world.
• 0:52
  Speaker 5: We want to get to.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: But Pisco is going to join us to break down
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: all of those decisions and what they mean. We also
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: it is officially an addition of pay ping points. Today
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: we got Robert Pape stopping by virtually to talk to
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: us about what he thinks unfolded over the weekend and
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: what is likely to happen moving forward. We've got several
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: NBA veterans who have been arrested now for alleged gambling
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: and game fixing. Some very significant allegations there to dig into,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: and some pretty devastating video proof too of what may
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: have been going on behind the scenes. I guess, suppose,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I guess sort of. On the sports beat, we also
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: have Dave Portnoy who's thinking of running against or on
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Mom Danni in New York City. That would be fun.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: I would enjoy that.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: We'd have to go do some on the ground coverage.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, absolutely so I want to encourage Dave and his ambitions.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: There also some significant AI stories, including new warnings about
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: the size and state of a potential AI bubble. And
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I'm taking a look at this very interesting story that
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: unfolded unfolded in Utah. We covered this previously, so Kevin
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: O'Leary's behind this massive hyper scale data center in Utah.
• 1:59
  Speaker 5: Local people, we're not.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Excited about this, but I got pushed through. Those politicians
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: are now facing a massive reckoning. So two of the
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: three commissioners that voted to greenlight this thing in this
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: local rural county, they.
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: Have been kicked down.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: And one of the most powerful politicians in the state
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: has just lost his seat in a shocking upset because of.
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: His support of this data center.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: So I wanted to track all of that down and
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: break it down for you as well.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: You're going to be tracking the Chinese influence.
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: That's right, Yeah, yeah, I'll be on that poe now.
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• 3:37
  Speaker 1: So, Crystal, should we go to.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Go to let's talk about some of these decisions that
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: came down yesterday. But we'll actually start a little bit
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: in reverse order here. Piecea Go is going to join
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: us to break down the actual decisions. Emily and I
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: want to do a little bit of the political reaction though.
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: First.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Steve Bannon pretty unhappy with some of it was a
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: real mixed bag yesterday. I'll just say that in terms of,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: you know, your ideological perspective. And Steve Bannon quite upset
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: some of the decisions did not go the way that
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: he wanted them to.
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: You're going to get another wake up call. And that's
• 4:06
  Speaker 6: on birthrights, citizenship. Cony Barrett, that crowd, man, she was
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: a lovely pick. Did anybody do any due diligence here?
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: I know it was quite behind the scenes, it was
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: quite contentious.
• 4:23
  Speaker 7: Before, but the right to life crowd, Hey, did you
• 4:26
  Speaker 7: do your due diligence? Are you happy with what you got?
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: Emily?
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: How common a sentiment is this on the hardcore right
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: that Amy Coney Barrett has been this grave disappointment and
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: a traitor to the cause, etc.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: It's a very common sentiment. And in fact, it started
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: with Neil Gorsich in the Bostock opinion, which people were
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: really upset about all.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: The way back when.
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: I mean that was probably like twenty eighteen. It was
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: a long time ago now, and the building.
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: Bostock had to do with gay rights refreshment.
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: It was so yeah, it was protect Title seven Intrinsion
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: of Protections, Okay, And so people thought that Gorsa got
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: the decision totally wrong, and that was a really consequential
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: move for him to side where he did on that case.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: And so that goes back to the list that Leonard
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Leo's Federalist Society very famously handed to Trump, and Trump
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: promised then to pick off of the list, and it
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: was if there were any Supreme Court vacancies, which we
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: knew that there would be, and instead.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: He got three. He didn't just get one, he got three.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: And so Kavanaugh comes off that amy Cony Barrett is
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: the last one to come off of that list. And
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: so a lot of the Bannons of the world and Maga,
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: the kind of Maga wing see that as the establishment
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: kind of con inc choosing establishment picks to then go
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: to the Supreme Court and getting Trump. Basically at the
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: time when nobody realized that Trump would actually be the president,
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: many people didn't think he would when he agreed to
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: pick off of this list that he now has handed
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: or seeded these seats on the Supreme Court basically to
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: Leonard Leo and the Federalist Society. So that sentiment has
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: been building since Corsic and amy Cony. Barrett is definitely
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: getting the brunt of it. She's gone against the administry
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: on a handful of pretty big cases now, So it's building,
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: and it's uh, this yesterday was pretty consequential in how
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: people have turned against ACB.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: This is why you can't trust women, Emily Listen. We
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: always that's what we always say.
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: One editorial position here, you cannot trust.
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: Ones, right that, and the women be shopping, women be shopping.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Benny Johnson also very unhappy, and specifically using the fact
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: one of the decisions that came down said, actually, it's
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: fine for states to have laws that enable mail in
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: ballots to come in after the election date as long
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: as they are post dated before or on election day.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: This is the case actually had to do with Mississippi.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: That's relevant in California, a bunch of other states. Besides,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: So conservatives very upset about this. Trump very upset about this,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: and Benny Johnson immediately turning to say, well, this is
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: why we have to have the Save America Act in
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: part because of this ruling. So using this moment to
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: try to push forward this legislation that would limit the
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: vote in a way that Republicans think will be favorable
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: for them.
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: Let's listen to Benny Johnson.
• 7:05
  Speaker 8: And as soon as she gets to the Supreme Court,
• 7:07
  Speaker 8: Amy Coney Barrett changes the stalwart Catholic conservative upholding of
• 7:15
  Speaker 8: Christian and constitutional values morphed almost immediately into one of
• 7:23
  Speaker 8: these little short goblins which make up the only three
• 7:27
  Speaker 8: left wing Supreme Court justices. And all of them are
• 7:29
  Speaker 8: doing extremely poorly right now, I mean, goodness gracious, and
• 7:34
  Speaker 8: they're in like complete and total collapse, and they have
• 7:37
  Speaker 8: no chance to win any decision. If the Conservatives could
• 7:41
  Speaker 8: just stay together, Conservatives could actually lose a vote. You
• 7:45
  Speaker 8: can lose John Roberts, he's squished. Everybody knows that, George W.
• 7:47
  Speaker 7: Bush.
• 7:48
  Speaker 8: But you can't lose the Trump nominees. And I know
• 7:52
  Speaker 8: it's anecdotal, but here's this footage of President Trump after
• 7:56
  Speaker 8: the State of the Union and he's talking to Amy Barrett,
• 8:00
  Speaker 8: and you can see shehtes him, she despises him. It's
• 8:07
  Speaker 8: just obvious when you study body language.
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: It's just obvious.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Although he's totally picking up on like he's like mimicking
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Tucker there. Oh funny, don't you hear that? It's just
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: obvious when you look at that, sounds very Tucker. But
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: in any case, obviously he's on the you know, ACB
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: betrayed us beat.
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: He goes on to talk about.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: The Stay of America Act as well in his deep
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: disappointment there so well, and he says, we're looking right
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: down the barrel of a full fledged third world communist invasion.
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: Emily, we can ask Peace go about this. But I
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: was reading Barrett's opinion. Barrett wrote the opinion in that case,
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: and it's not like she just sided with them. She
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: wrote the opinion, and it was interesting that she was
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: kind of making an originalist argument. It's a the ballot
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: case is interesting because you have federal election law and
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: then you have state election law, and there's supposed to
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: be a federalist process in election law, which is actually
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: a lot of the controversy over the same America Act like,
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: but she kind of tried to make an originalist argument.
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: I'm curious what Piececo is going to think about this.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: But for the way that Mississippi is able to control
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: elections locally based on what constitutes day of with mailing,
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: so the way she wrote the opinion is actually pretty
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: interesting given why she was picked for that seat.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's fair to make an originalist argument,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: because the whole idea is the states get to, you know,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: run the elections the way they want to run the elections.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: And there's been a lot of difference throughout history to
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: that principle. You might dispute that that's the right way
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: to do it. It has its pluses and its minuses.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: You know, in some ways, I do think it would
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: be good to have one coherent national standard. Okay, here's
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: how we do it, Here's how mail and ballots work,
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: here's what we expect in terms of account. That might
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: be a better system, but it's not the system that
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: we have, no, So so you know, I don't think
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: that that is dissonant with an originalist reading of you know,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the way things have operated in this country since this beginning.
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and just to be clear, by the time some
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: people might watch the segment, things will be popping off
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: once again. We're expecting to today actually within a matter
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: of a couple of hours. Opinions in the birthright citizenship case,
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: a transathletes case, and if Barrett goes against the conservative
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: the sort of consensus conservative consensus on those questions, this
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: could get even more I mean, there's nothing anybody can
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: do about it, and she's.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Probably likely to on birthrights as citizenship. I mean, most
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: scholars who looked at that one were like, not a chance.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: This one is very unlikely to go the way the
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: Trump administration wants. So it may not just be her
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: of the Trump picks that is disappointing to these deep
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Bannons of the world.
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: Remember he Donald Trump sat through those oral arguments and
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: like stared the justices down.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Yes so, and didn't leave early because he was unhappy
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: with how it was going.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: That's my recollection.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: I think that was the reading of why he got
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: up and made a show of leaving. So in the
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: opinion here, Barrett writes, we must decide whether the federal
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: election day statutes preempt Mississippi's law.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: They do not, and so peace will help us explain
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: exactly what.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: The layers are of government control, local and federal government control.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: But it's interesting because one of the reasons that she
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: was selected is she's seen as somebody who's in the
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: Originalist tradition, a Scalia tradition, which is what the Federalist
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: Society specifically vets for They don't vet necessarily. This is
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: one of the big criticisms of Maga world of the
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: federal society. They're not like vetting for in any way whatsoever,
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: like Trump loyalty or at the time it would have
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: been like Tea Party loyalty. It's originalism, and she kind
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: of was trying to make an originalist argument here in
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: the opinion.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, well, let's go ahead and bring peace
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Go in and he can break down each one of
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: these and help us understand their import.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: Well, we're joined once again by Peace Go. You can
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: check out Peace co Lidy on YouTube. Former litigator Pias Go.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us here just on
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: this day. We're expecting more opinions, but we're breaking down
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: already a few major opinions that were handed down yesterday
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: by the Supreme Court.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: It's great to have you back.
• 11:52
  Speaker 7: Thank you, Thank you so much for having me.
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we just wanted to get your general reaction to
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: a few big decisions that came out yesterday. We started
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: this segment by looking at the political reaction to Amy
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: Coney Barrett's decision to side against the Trump administration in
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: that case about mail in ballots. Some of the kind
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: of Maga Wing is very very upset once again with
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: Amy Coney Barrett. But a couple other big decisions came
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: down yesterday as well. We put a four up on
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: the screen. This is basically the overturning of Humphrey's executor.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: The Supreme Court allowed Donald Trump to fire Rebecca Slaughter,
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: the FTC commissioner, which finally formally basically overturned Humphrey's executor,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: which itself overturned Franklin delan or Roosevelt what was in
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: nineteen thirty three, I think piecego. But also then we
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: could put a five up on the screen. This is
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: a companion decision in a way. The Supreme Court ruled
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: that Trump's firing of Lisa Cook from the FED was unconstitutional.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: The argument in that case, interestingly enough, was basically that
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: he didn't give her enough time to respond. This was
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: John Roberts that you said, maybe he has the authority,
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: but you have to give her time to respond. Finally,
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: the case that we were just referenced sing the mail in.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Ballots, this is a six. They allowed state law that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: said federal law didn't preempt state law. And you're going
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: to break this down for us piece go in just
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: one second.
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: But let's start with this broad based reaction, your broad
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: based reaction to what happened yesterday.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: These decisions, the breakdown of the decisions. What did you
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: make of it?
• 13:21
  Speaker 9: Yeah, in general, I think the reaction has been justifiably
• 13:24
  Speaker 9: so a bad day for Trump. A lot of the
• 13:27
  Speaker 9: decisions regarding the FTC and sort of the executive power
• 13:30
  Speaker 9: stuff that was already baked in. We already had the
• 13:33
  Speaker 9: shadow docket opinions on the FTC that indicated where the
• 13:37
  Speaker 9: court was going to go when it came to the
• 13:39
  Speaker 9: removal authority of a president. But in general, we have
• 13:43
  Speaker 9: a loss for Trump on the issue of the mail
• 13:45
  Speaker 9: in ballots. They denied circiarra, which means they denied review.
• 13:50
  Speaker 9: On the Egene Carol case, there was a win on
• 13:54
  Speaker 9: you know, individual rights when it came to certain searches
• 13:56
  Speaker 9: and seizures, and then on the docket for hopefully today
• 14:00
  Speaker 9: we'll have a birthright citizenship opinion. So in general, the
• 14:02
  Speaker 9: outlook has been this is a loss for the administration
• 14:05
  Speaker 9: because the sort of opinions regarding executive power removal were
• 14:09
  Speaker 9: already baked into the expectations. But we can get more
• 14:11
  Speaker 9: into the weeds on the particular opinions.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's dive into Let's consider both the FTC decision
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: and also the Federal Reserve Board decision, because I think
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: for most people who are looking at this, they're like, wait,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: why can he fire whoever he wants at every other
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: federal government agency or independent commission but he can't in
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: this one instance? How did they try to how did
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: they try to navigate that? And also I understand the
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: cake was kind of already baked here. We all knew
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: what direction the FDC was going in or the FDC
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: decision was going in, but still very consequential in terms
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: of a further consolidation of power in the executive branch.
• 14:51
  Speaker 7: Hugely consequential.
• 14:52
  Speaker 9: I would say that this is the most clear and
• 14:55
  Speaker 9: elaborate exposition on the unitary executive theory that we've had,
• 14:59
  Speaker 9: even more so, I would say, than Trump versus the
• 15:01
  Speaker 9: United States.
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: The immunity decision.
• 15:02
  Speaker 9: So very impactful because essentially, what this decision says is
• 15:07
  Speaker 9: for most quote unquote independent agencies that the president is
• 15:11
  Speaker 9: going to retain removal authority and thereby a lot more
• 15:14
  Speaker 9: control over these independent agencies that a lot of them
• 15:16
  Speaker 9: were constructed in the shadow of the case that was
• 15:19
  Speaker 9: referenced by Emily Humphrey's executor.
• 15:21
  Speaker 7: So what's going on here?
• 15:22
  Speaker 9: So, in general, what the Court is saying, the logic
• 15:25
  Speaker 9: of the opinion is that the Constitution of the United
• 15:27
  Speaker 9: States gives to the president full executive power unified. He
• 15:31
  Speaker 9: can't lend it out, he can't give it to other
• 15:34
  Speaker 9: branches of government. And really, when executive officials are using
• 15:38
  Speaker 9: the executive power, they're kind of.
• 15:39
  Speaker 7: Just borrowing the power of the president.
• 15:42
  Speaker 9: Now, why is this justified in the court's mind? I,
• 15:45
  Speaker 9: by the way, totally disagree with the opinion for certain
• 15:47
  Speaker 9: reason that we can get into. But the justification is
• 15:50
  Speaker 9: based on the vesting clause of Article two, which that's
• 15:54
  Speaker 9: the executive power into one president according to the justices,
• 15:58
  Speaker 9: and also some of the writings of the framers, which
• 16:01
  Speaker 9: they sort of speak about a vigorous executive and the
• 16:04
  Speaker 9: First Congress of the United States, which decided as a
• 16:07
  Speaker 9: matter of statute that the president should have a great
• 16:10
  Speaker 9: deal of removal authority, even though the Constitution doesn't sort
• 16:13
  Speaker 9: of mention it explicitly. Long story short, the Court held
• 16:17
  Speaker 9: that the removal power is like inherently executive and so
• 16:20
  Speaker 9: for basically most independent agencies except for ASTERIX the Federal Reserve,
• 16:26
  Speaker 9: the president is going to retain that authority.
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: Well, yeah, let's talk about it. Because John Robert, It's
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: correct me if I'm wrong, wrote both of the opinions
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: of Slaughter opinion and Cook opinion. So Pisca tried to
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: explain to us the logic of John Roberts distinguishing between
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: the FED and in this case, the FTC. But really
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: all of these executive agencies that fall under the purview
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: of the president.
• 16:47
  Speaker 9: Listen, I'm going to take a moment of personal privilege
• 16:49
  Speaker 9: and say that at least some of these conservative justices
• 16:51
  Speaker 9: like Clarence Thomas, in my mind, have a more coherent
• 16:54
  Speaker 9: through line in terms of judicial philosophy. And I'm sure
• 16:58
  Speaker 9: some conservatives agree that John Roberts always seems to be
• 17:01
  Speaker 9: trying to split the.
• 17:01
  Speaker 7: Baby in some way.
• 17:02
  Speaker 9: Now, as it happens in this particular case, we'll give
• 17:05
  Speaker 9: him a little bit of a break on the two
• 17:06
  Speaker 9: different decisions, at least at step one, because they really
• 17:10
  Speaker 9: weren't The government wasn't as much contesting the substantive authority
• 17:14
  Speaker 9: of removal from the president to the Federal Reserve specifically,
• 17:18
  Speaker 9: or to the governors in this case, they had already
• 17:21
  Speaker 9: lost that battle in the shadow docket, and they were
• 17:23
  Speaker 9: basically just arguing that Trump has a great deal of
• 17:26
  Speaker 9: discretion in whether or not for cause has been achieved,
• 17:30
  Speaker 9: and so in line with a lot of the other
• 17:32
  Speaker 9: arguments that the administration has been leveling, that stuff is
• 17:35
  Speaker 9: unreviewable and the president has to be given this massive
• 17:37
  Speaker 9: deference on ascertaining facts and circumstances. The court was basically
• 17:42
  Speaker 9: just assessing whether or not the courts have a basis
• 17:46
  Speaker 9: to question what the president is doing when he's removing
• 17:49
  Speaker 9: someone who's protected for cause. And so it wasn't squarely
• 17:52
  Speaker 9: that decision on point regarding the overall constitutional authority, And
• 17:56
  Speaker 9: what the Court said is we can work it out
• 17:58
  Speaker 9: later in terms of what the limits here on the
• 18:00
  Speaker 9: substance of power, but at a bare minimum, you got
• 18:03
  Speaker 9: to give Lisa Cook some procedural protection, some guardrails before
• 18:07
  Speaker 9: you make the decision. We can get into, though, and
• 18:09
  Speaker 9: I think we should, the sort of fundamental distinction for
• 18:13
  Speaker 9: powers purposes, for constitutional purposes between why the FDC is
• 18:17
  Speaker 9: not protected why the Federal Reserve is protected.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Well, David Dan offered his analysis, which I agree with,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: of why Roberts, you know, went in this direction. He says,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Humphrey's executor is dead, and the president can fire anyone
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: in the executive branch at will, but not federal reserve governors.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Is really a parody of the difference between the money
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: power and everything else in America.
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: And that's the way I read this as well.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: And I mean I read all these decisions through a
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: very political lens. I think the Supreme Court and Roberts
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: in particular, is keenly aware of what they can get
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: away with and what the political mood in the country is.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: The fact that Trump's political power has diminished and he's
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: deeply unpopular, I think makes it more likely that some
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: of these decisions go against him. But in this particular case,
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: you know, Wall Street jealously protects their effective control over
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: the FED, and all Roberts and many of the especially
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: conservative justices on the Court really care a lot about
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: the you know, the corporate institutions and the Wall Street
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: institutions in this country. So that is my read of
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: why they tried to split the difference it this way.
• 19:25
  Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm going to put my polemicist haat on just
• 19:27
  Speaker 9: for a quick second and say, yeah, no, good point
• 19:33
  Speaker 9: if you're a cynic, right, Like, what does the FTC do? Oh,
• 19:35
  Speaker 9: I guess they do, like monopoly stuff and consumer protection
• 19:38
  Speaker 9: and all this other stuff, So like it doesn't really
• 19:40
  Speaker 9: matter if we politicize that, But no, don't touch the
• 19:42
  Speaker 9: Federal Reserve.
• 19:43
  Speaker 7: I understand that inclination.
• 19:44
  Speaker 9: And if you read the opinion, there really isn't a
• 19:46
  Speaker 9: lot to go on in terms of a substantive legal
• 19:48
  Speaker 9: rationale as to why the FDC is not protected and
• 19:51
  Speaker 9: why the Federal Reserve is protected. One of the things
• 19:54
  Speaker 9: that they say is quintessentially executive is some sort of
• 19:57
  Speaker 9: like government body implementing rules that affect the conduct of
• 20:00
  Speaker 9: private parties. Well, Crystal, who affects the conduct and the
• 20:04
  Speaker 9: obligations and sort of actions of private parties more than
• 20:07
  Speaker 9: the Federal Reserve of the United States. This is like
• 20:10
  Speaker 9: arguably one of the most influential and powerful agencies that's
• 20:14
  Speaker 9: ever existed. And they spend maybe a paragraph Roberts does
• 20:18
  Speaker 9: talking about the difference and why it could be the
• 20:21
  Speaker 9: case that this could be reasonable and it's totally like
• 20:24
  Speaker 9: devoid of any law. All they say is, well, I
• 20:27
  Speaker 9: guess there was a first and second National Bank of
• 20:29
  Speaker 9: the United States, But that's just explaining that there in
• 20:32
  Speaker 9: fact was like there's some history there. It doesn't explain
• 20:35
  Speaker 9: why it is the case that we fundamentally treat an
• 20:37
  Speaker 9: agency like a monetary authority differently than we would treat
• 20:40
  Speaker 9: an agency like the FTC or any other number of
• 20:43
  Speaker 9: independent agencies. It's the void of any legal analysis there,
• 20:46
  Speaker 9: and it's really frustrated. Kind of feels like he's playing games.
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: Pisco.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Do you think that these decisions hit a little bit
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: different given where we are in the political arc of
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: Trump's second presidency.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: You know, if this had.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Come earlier, when he was at the peak of his
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: strength and they were rampaging through the federal government with
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: DOJE and all of these things, and he fully had
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: the Republican Party behind him, fully had the MAGA base
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: behind him, I feel like it would be it would
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: land a little differently with both the right and the
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: left than now when they're looking and going, yeah, but
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: you know who's going to inherit all of this power
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: in the executive president Grim Plattner, who I was coming
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: into president AOC or whoever's coming in twenty twenty eight.
• 21:26
  Speaker 9: Yeah, in terms of how it's landing, because, like we mentioned,
• 21:28
  Speaker 9: the shadowed docket activity existed, and because like the major
• 21:32
  Speaker 9: attacks on the executive branch and the Congress and judicial
• 21:36
  Speaker 9: authorities have already been done. People get used to it,
• 21:39
  Speaker 9: and it's kind of baked in at this point. And yeah,
• 21:41
  Speaker 9: you're right, his political power has lessened in recent months
• 21:44
  Speaker 9: based on polling this disastrous Iran war. But you mentioned
• 21:48
  Speaker 9: something interesting, you mentioned the tit for tat. Well, if
• 21:51
  Speaker 9: this is going to give a great deal of power
• 21:53
  Speaker 9: to a Republican president, surely it'll be giving the great
• 21:56
  Speaker 9: amount of power to a future democratic president.
• 21:59
  Speaker 7: Don't worry. Neil Gorsas has that all figured out.
• 22:01
  Speaker 9: If you read his concurring opinion, it's clear what at
• 22:03
  Speaker 9: least he wants to do and probably what the courts
• 22:05
  Speaker 9: are going to be able to do in the future.
• 22:06
  Speaker 9: He's talking about reviving doctrines like the non delegation doctrine,
• 22:10
  Speaker 9: the Major Questions doctrine, and to apply it and reconsider Hey,
• 22:14
  Speaker 9: are these agencies even constitutional in the first place? And
• 22:17
  Speaker 9: so I expect that in the future, if you were
• 22:19
  Speaker 9: to get a democratic president, you would see a lot
• 22:21
  Speaker 9: more problems in like establishing a regulatory state in the
• 22:23
  Speaker 9: first instance, given how much authority has now been given
• 22:26
  Speaker 9: to the president.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Sounds like democrats need to think about packing the court.
• 22:29
  Speaker 9: Piece go, yeah, well, I am encouraging guys that I
• 22:32
  Speaker 9: have a number of debates that I've done with Desiah
• 22:34
  Speaker 9: from pondering politics on court expansion, and yeah, you guys should.
• 22:37
  Speaker 7: Really consider it.
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: There's an interesting point from Sonya Soomyor, who wrote a
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: forty nine page Descent and Sure today the court discards
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: the democratic regime created by the Constitution quote, in favor
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: of one that distorts the structure of government to fit
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: the majority's theory of unitary, total executive controlled. The results
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: she concluded, according to the Scotus blog, quote is a
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: president who emerges with far greater power than ever before.
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: I put that on an X and I was like, well, actually,
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: far greater power than ever before Franklin, Delan and Roosevelt.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: Because a lot of this actually is downstream of the
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: last like what eighty well, no, like one hundred years,
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: you could probably say of American politics. The growth of
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: the regulatory state after Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. As
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: technology radio than eventually television started, and railroads and airplanes
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: like it just started making this fabric kind of knit
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: even closer together because it borders to some extent geography
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: to some extent shrinks down when you have all of
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: this new stuff, and so you have a federal government
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: that grows and grows and grows, and conservatives always opposed
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: a lot of it for some of these exact reasons.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: But it's not I mean, I guess in this case
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: piece go just going back to FDR pre FDR, there
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: was a different kind of regime for the federal government.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: Is that not correct at the very least?
• 23:52
  Speaker 9: So I think that the growth of the regulatory state
• 23:55
  Speaker 9: happened during the twentieth century, and a lot of it,
• 23:57
  Speaker 9: you're right, like, has some new deal found as there
• 24:00
  Speaker 9: for sure, But it isn't the case that these kinds
• 24:03
  Speaker 9: of agencies with protection for us from at will removal
• 24:09
  Speaker 9: just started in the nineteen thirties. There were examples even
• 24:12
  Speaker 9: used in the opinion of some nineteenth century organizations and
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: agencies within the government that that happened.
• 24:17
  Speaker 7: But yeah, I mean, you're right, fundamentally.
• 24:19
  Speaker 9: The belief by people like Neil Gorsich, by the conservatives
• 24:24
  Speaker 9: on the Supreme.
• 24:24
  Speaker 7: Court is that a lot of this stuff was a mistake.
• 24:27
  Speaker 9: That certainly that Humphrey's Executor was a mistake when it
• 24:30
  Speaker 9: was written. And Huffrey's Executor is a case that Project
• 24:33
  Speaker 9: twenty twenty five had its eyes set out on, and
• 24:36
  Speaker 9: that the Phio Society.
• 24:37
  Speaker 7: Has been let them cook at the cook Well, well, no,
• 24:42
  Speaker 7: think about this.
• 24:43
  Speaker 9: And in this congcut of the nineteen thirties, FDRs was
• 24:46
  Speaker 9: trying to fire Humphrey.
• 24:48
  Speaker 7: Right, Humphrey is an.
• 24:49
  Speaker 9: FTC commissioner who was like against He hated Roosevelt and
• 24:54
  Speaker 9: so so yeah, this was a situation in which he
• 24:56
  Speaker 9: was frustrated that they didn't let him, or that they
• 24:59
  Speaker 9: had to pay out humph estate because it was Humphrey's
• 25:01
  Speaker 9: executor who assuing Roosevelt. But you know, this does have
• 25:04
  Speaker 9: its origins in a new Deal and in the growth
• 25:06
  Speaker 9: of the regulatory state, which has been a sensitive and
• 25:09
  Speaker 9: source subject for conservatives for a long time. You saw
• 25:11
  Speaker 9: the decision on the Chevron doctrine the same exact thing.
• 25:13
  Speaker 9: This is an anti regulatory court.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the election law decision
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: as well. Conservatives very animated about this Trump and many
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: others using this as yet another reason to push for
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: the quote unquote Save America Act.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: What do you see? How significant is this decision?
• 25:33
  Speaker 7: Do you think it's a significant decision.
• 25:36
  Speaker 9: This was a theory that essentially you had to have
• 25:39
  Speaker 9: ballot receipt on the date of election. And it's a
• 25:43
  Speaker 9: wonderful opinion from Amy Cony Barrett. I mean, she goes
• 25:46
  Speaker 9: through the Dictionary definition of the term election. She runs
• 25:50
  Speaker 9: through the history to say why it isn't the case
• 25:52
  Speaker 9: that this is how you should best read the statutes
• 25:55
  Speaker 9: as requiring instead of casting your ballot on election days,
• 25:58
  Speaker 9: receiving them ballots on election day. She then also explains
• 26:02
  Speaker 9: other parts of the Federal Code which presupposed that states
• 26:06
  Speaker 9: have laws about when they can set ballot receipt. And
• 26:09
  Speaker 9: so this is a significant opinion on the interpretation of
• 26:12
  Speaker 9: those statutes. I will note though it was even though
• 26:15
  Speaker 9: I think it's an immaculate opinion, really well done. It
• 26:18
  Speaker 9: was a five four decision. It was a close shave,
• 26:20
  Speaker 9: and I think the conservatives and Trump in particular, doesn't
• 26:25
  Speaker 9: really care so much about these clutches of ballots, you know,
• 26:28
  Speaker 9: whether they were received afterwards. I think he more cares
• 26:31
  Speaker 9: about having some justification to have a federal hook into
• 26:34
  Speaker 9: the elections that are coming up and to either claim
• 26:36
  Speaker 9: an emergency or claim that something isn't being done according
• 26:40
  Speaker 9: to law. And so the significance of it I think
• 26:43
  Speaker 9: is important both for the legal rule on when ballots
• 26:46
  Speaker 9: need to be received, but also politically. I think it
• 26:48
  Speaker 9: limits Trump's ability to claim a pretext, so I'm sure
• 26:50
  Speaker 9: he'll try anyway.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Oh.
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: Interesting, Curious about your take on the Barrett opinion. Just
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: I kind of read it as making an almost originalist
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: argument in terms of who's because it's about preempting federal
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: law state law versus federal law, and the way that
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: she wrote it is like pretty fascinating from the perspective
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: that people are mad at her for kind of doing
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: what the Federalist Society and Leonard Leo vetted any Cony
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: Barrett to do, which is to be like, listen, I
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: have no idea how Kaliah would have decided on this case,
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: but she was am I crazy reading into this trying
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: to make an r like, oh.
• 27:22
  Speaker 9: She does originals better than the descent. Yes, she does
• 27:25
  Speaker 9: originals and better than the descent. She will go to
• 27:27
  Speaker 9: the dictionaries used at the time, right, the original public
• 27:31
  Speaker 9: meaning of the term election. She's like, this obviously means choice.
• 27:34
  Speaker 9: When does a choice happen, Well, that's when the ballots
• 27:36
  Speaker 9: are cast. And you know, just because we don't know
• 27:39
  Speaker 9: about it until after the decision is made doesn't mean
• 27:42
  Speaker 9: the decision isn't made. The choice isn't made on the
• 27:44
  Speaker 9: day of election and when people actually cast their ballots.
• 27:47
  Speaker 9: And so yeah, originalism in terms of the dictionary definition,
• 27:50
  Speaker 9: originalism in terms of deciphering what was meant at the
• 27:53
  Speaker 9: time that these statutes were passing, like the eighteen sixties
• 27:56
  Speaker 9: or seventies, and then calling out bad originalism by the
• 27:59
  Speaker 9: descent when they try to invoke a bunch of you know,
• 28:02
  Speaker 9: precedent from the nineteen nineteen hundreds. She's like, well, this
• 28:07
  Speaker 9: isn't supposed to be the day that you look to.
• 28:08
  Speaker 9: So I think that people are upset with the result here.
• 28:11
  Speaker 9: No one's actually among the pundit class or very few
• 28:14
  Speaker 9: people are looking into the meat and potatoes of the
• 28:16
  Speaker 9: opinion like you did, Emily. They're just pissed that Trump
• 28:18
  Speaker 9: didn't get his way. And so that's the problem when
• 28:21
  Speaker 9: you have a judicial philosophy it's not always going to
• 28:24
  Speaker 9: lead you to the place that you want to go.
• 28:26
  Speaker 9: And that's why I think I respect people like Amy
• 28:28
  Speaker 9: Cony Barrett, even though she's a very conservative justice, more
• 28:31
  Speaker 9: than someone like Alito and Roberts.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Frankly, let's talk about what remains outstanding, what we're expecting
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: to get today. Put a nine up on the screen.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: This has some of the details here. We mentioned the
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: birthright citizenship decision. That's probably, you know, the biggest one
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: set to come down. We've also got a decision on
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: transgender athlete bands. Another look at campaign finance, how much
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: money candidates can spend in coordination with their political parties,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: always trying to get more money into our political system.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: That's always great. What do you expect on these three
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: decisions and which ones are you watching as being most important?
• 29:10
  Speaker 9: Yeah, obviously the most important one is the birthright citizenship decision.
• 29:14
  Speaker 9: That one is rumored perhaps to come out today. This
• 29:16
  Speaker 9: is an opinion day now, it's not necessary that it
• 29:19
  Speaker 9: come out today, but yeah, this one is really I
• 29:22
  Speaker 9: think not a close call on the legal issues and
• 29:25
  Speaker 9: a major sensitive subject I think for all you know,
• 29:29
  Speaker 9: politically involved, So that should be coming down today or
• 29:32
  Speaker 9: at least.
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: Sometimes it what's your expectation on a piece.
• 29:34
  Speaker 7: Go basis, The expectation is that they're going to go
• 29:36
  Speaker 7: the right way.
• 29:37
  Speaker 9: I know that it's a conservative leaning court, and I
• 29:40
  Speaker 9: don't really like this court, but based on the oral
• 29:44
  Speaker 9: arguments and some of the questions probing questions, even someone
• 29:47
  Speaker 9: like Neil Gorsich asked, I think it indicates that the
• 29:50
  Speaker 9: history really isn't on the administration side here. So I
• 29:53
  Speaker 9: expect something like a six to three decision in favor
• 29:56
  Speaker 9: of the right decision I think, which is birthright, citizenship
• 29:58
  Speaker 9: stands in the precedent stand.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: Finally, from my perspective, PIECECO one of these other decisions
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: handed down yesterday that's really significant and actually sort of
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: cause for some optimism is we can pop up on
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: the screen a seven the geofence warrant decision. Civil libertarians
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: were very excited about this one. Here's the headline. Court
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: rules that law enforcement's use of geofens warn't was a search.
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: And now this was actually somebody who was caught up
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: in a robbery case who then challenged us on Fourth
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: Amendment grounds. If people don't know about geofens warrants, you
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: absolutely should know about geofens warrants where you can literally,
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: I mean it's in the name, you can get a
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: warrant for data, really broad swath of data of people
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: who were in within a geofence at a given point
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: in time. I saw some quibbling with the opinion and
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: like ultra nerdy circles that you're probably familiar with, piececo
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: But give us your reaction to this, because it seems
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: like a significant and great piece of legal news.
• 30:58
  Speaker 9: Yeah, it's an extense of a previous case that was
• 31:01
  Speaker 9: decided in like twenty eighteen called Carpenter, and that decision
• 31:04
  Speaker 9: was basically saying, hey, you have a reasonable expectation of
• 31:08
  Speaker 9: privacy in your like the omnipresent panopticon information stream, which
• 31:14
  Speaker 9: is your cell phone location data, and essentially applying principles
• 31:19
  Speaker 9: of search and seizure to location data in your phone.
• 31:22
  Speaker 7: So this expanded it from like.
• 31:24
  Speaker 9: The initial cell tower data to now like Google Google
• 31:27
  Speaker 9: Location Services, which is actually like more information. It gives
• 31:30
  Speaker 9: you elevation, it's more precise, it's more information, and so
• 31:33
  Speaker 9: it's a big win. But in terms of legal development,
• 31:36
  Speaker 9: it's it's basically just a follow on to Carpenter and
• 31:39
  Speaker 9: to get into LOWI just a tiny bit. They have
• 31:42
  Speaker 9: to before they decide whether a search is reasonable, right,
• 31:45
  Speaker 9: the Fourth Amendment protects you against unreasonable searches and seizures.
• 31:48
  Speaker 9: They have to decide whether it's even a search first,
• 31:51
  Speaker 9: And so this was a question of like, when you
• 31:52
  Speaker 9: ask Google for information regarding your location data, is that
• 31:57
  Speaker 9: even a search? So there are other legal issues potentially
• 32:00
  Speaker 9: that could cause the petitioner here to lose, But in general,
• 32:05
  Speaker 9: the court rule that it is a search, notwithstanding the
• 32:07
  Speaker 9: fact that you give information to Google and it's a
• 32:09
  Speaker 9: third party. Because it's such an all encompassing data stream,
• 32:14
  Speaker 9: and because you have a reasonable expectation to that data stream,
• 32:17
  Speaker 9: you're going to need to have at least some element
• 32:19
  Speaker 9: of particularity and some guardrails before the government just gets
• 32:23
  Speaker 9: that information or just like draws a circle around a
• 32:26
  Speaker 9: location and gets like everyone's information who ever went there
• 32:29
  Speaker 9: in the last two hours?
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Wow, peace Go anything else we didn't ask you about
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: that you thought was significant or not where that you
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: went to weigh on.
• 32:38
  Speaker 9: I guess the Eging Carrol Denial of of Sert case
• 32:42
  Speaker 9: where this was the case out of New York. I
• 32:45
  Speaker 9: believe where there was an alleged sexual assault against Trump,
• 32:51
  Speaker 9: and that was maintained on appeal, and now the court
• 32:54
  Speaker 9: has denied any possible recourse for Trump on that case.
• 32:57
  Speaker 9: So that's a significant one in terms of the damages
• 32:59
  Speaker 9: which were talking about, I think tens of millions of
• 33:01
  Speaker 9: dollars all told, after the actual verdict and then the
• 33:04
  Speaker 9: defamation case following after that. And Trump is really mad
• 33:06
  Speaker 9: about that. So that's one other. I guess Supreme Court.
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: That's money he's going to have to pay to Egene Garrel.
• 33:11
  Speaker 9: Now, yes, yes, I'm sure he'll like start a coin
• 33:14
  Speaker 9: or something or fundrase in somepular way.
• 33:16
  Speaker 7: And so.
• 33:19
  Speaker 9: Yeah, whenever these things happen or whenever these like I
• 33:21
  Speaker 9: don't know, indictments of card, seems like he raises more
• 33:23
  Speaker 9: money or gets more prominence out of it. But at
• 33:24
  Speaker 9: least you know that has some final settling.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: Peace go, Thank you so much, great analysis. As always, everybody,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: go and subscribe to his channel. Peace Go Liddy. Great
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: to see you, my friend, Thank you so much.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: What We are joined once again by University of Chicago
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: professor Robert Pape, author of the Escalation Trap sub stack,
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: which if you're not following by now you are missing out, professor,
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us once again.
• 33:49
  Speaker 10: Thank you so much for having me, of.
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: Course much to discuss their negotiations that we're supposed to
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: be happening in Cutter today. Will actually still see what
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: comes of that. It's unclear even right now at this moment.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: But let's start here with b one want to roll
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: this clip of an Iranian military advisor talking about disagreement
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: with the Trump administration over the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously,
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: the crucial point of levers that are on has in
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: these negotiations is take a listen.
• 34:16
  Speaker 11: I'm but regarding fees, there is a cost to mention
• 34:20
  Speaker 11: to this matter. There is a tolls discussion, a fees discussion.
• 34:24
  Speaker 11: Our current discussion is about service costs in the Strait
• 34:27
  Speaker 11: of horm Moose. Yes, we want to maintain the security
• 34:30
  Speaker 11: of the Strait of Hormuse. We want to protect the
• 34:32
  Speaker 11: environment of the Strait of form Moose. We must establish
• 34:35
  Speaker 11: insurance mechanisms so that if incidents occur, ships that encounter
• 34:38
  Speaker 11: problems are covered to reduce their risk. And when we
• 34:41
  Speaker 11: provide all of this, these costs cannot come out of
• 34:44
  Speaker 11: the pockets of the Iranian people. These costs must be
• 34:47
  Speaker 11: collected from those who are transporting oil through this strait.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: Okay, so that's I mean, Professor Pai, tell us how
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: significant that statement is in the context of these new negotiations. Obviously,
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: as we already mentioned, with which the straight up hoor
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: news is absolutely the kind of critical part right now.
• 35:08
  Speaker 10: It's important in a couple of ways. So number one,
• 35:11
  Speaker 10: what you are watching in the last week is the
• 35:14
  Speaker 10: escalation trap snapping back hard. This is what I was
• 35:19
  Speaker 10: worried about the last time we were on. I realized
• 35:22
  Speaker 10: we all want this war to be over. We wanted
• 35:24
  Speaker 10: to be in the endgame. And as I was trying
• 35:26
  Speaker 10: to explain, we're in the middle game of the escalation
• 35:29
  Speaker 10: trap pretty much as I have been telling you for
• 35:32
  Speaker 10: some time. And also the modeling has shown what you
• 35:36
  Speaker 10: see here is Iran is playing hardball. It is Iran.
• 35:41
  Speaker 10: The big thing that is catching people by surprise is
• 35:45
  Speaker 10: most people have been saying, well, if we could just
• 35:48
  Speaker 10: get President Trump to stop bombing, stop doing the initiation
• 35:51
  Speaker 10: of the violence, then this whole thing will just be over,
• 35:54
  Speaker 10: will walk away, It's all going to be good and
• 35:57
  Speaker 10: we can go about our merry way. Well, the problem
• 35:59
  Speaker 10: is Iran is an actor, and what you are seeing
• 36:03
  Speaker 10: is as I have been explaining on the posts on
• 36:06
  Speaker 10: the escalation trap. In this period of time, it's actually
• 36:09
  Speaker 10: Iran who's most likely to initiate the violence, the bombing,
• 36:13
  Speaker 10: to close the straight afore moves or diminish the traffic
• 36:16
  Speaker 10: to keep its leverage. Iran is moving into its period
• 36:20
  Speaker 10: of maximum leverage because the oil inventories are drawing down
• 36:25
  Speaker 10: in this period of time. It is going to use
• 36:28
  Speaker 10: that leverage to force the Trump administration to stick to
• 36:31
  Speaker 10: the four corners of the MoU. Now so far they
• 36:34
  Speaker 10: haven't gone beyond the four corners of the MoU. I
• 36:37
  Speaker 10: think we can see pretty clearly what Iran's redlines are.
• 36:40
  Speaker 10: But they include is completely cease firing, not just lowering
• 36:46
  Speaker 10: violence in Lebanon. Probably is real out of Lebanon. Number two,
• 36:50
  Speaker 10: This means of the fees will come back in sixty days.
• 36:55
  Speaker 10: But before we just got on the New York Times,
• 36:58
  Speaker 10: it's reporting that Oman is putting four a piece of
• 37:00
  Speaker 10: fee structure.
• 37:01
  Speaker 7: I don't I.
• 37:02
  Speaker 10: Didn't have a chance to even read it, so I
• 37:03
  Speaker 10: don't know if the full structure is there yet. But
• 37:06
  Speaker 10: what we're talking about with fees is I think what
• 37:09
  Speaker 10: Iran said from the beginning, it's going to be two
• 37:12
  Speaker 10: million bucks tanker if they're fifty tankers or so going through,
• 37:17
  Speaker 10: and that means leaving the strait. That's one hundred million
• 37:20
  Speaker 10: dollars a day. That is thirty six billion.
• 37:24
  Speaker 7: Dollars a year.
• 37:26
  Speaker 10: That's in addition to all the oil revenues that they're
• 37:31
  Speaker 10: going to get, all the waivers on all the sanctions.
• 37:33
  Speaker 10: So Iran, what they are doing, this isn't just a
• 37:37
  Speaker 10: little bit of money.
• 37:38
  Speaker 7: This is what you.
• 37:39
  Speaker 10: Would do to become ascendant as the dominant state in
• 37:44
  Speaker 10: the Persian Gulf. So what this is all about is
• 37:47
  Speaker 10: not a return to the jcpoa idea. It's not a
• 37:50
  Speaker 10: business deal where we're paying around fee for service. What
• 37:54
  Speaker 10: it's about is the balance of power. And that's what
• 37:57
  Speaker 10: the three states here don't agree on. Aaran thinks it
• 38:01
  Speaker 10: should be the ascendance state, the regional hedge of on.
• 38:06
  Speaker 10: The United States used to be the pre eminent state
• 38:08
  Speaker 10: in the region. Israel thought it was going to be
• 38:10
  Speaker 10: the replacement rising power. Well, these three states just simply
• 38:14
  Speaker 10: don't agree. That's the escalation trap in a nutshell.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: I wanted to get your response to some of the
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: analysis I heard from Professor Meerscheimer that I was just
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: listening to this morning. He feels very confident there's not
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: going to be a full return to war and that
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Trump will ultimately accept what he describes as a surrender
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: document simply because he's out of military options. In his telling, Okay,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: they tried the air campaign that obviously it didn't work.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: They tried the naval campaign with the blockade also didn't work.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: They do not want and have no concept of how
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: they could do the ground invasion or the army approach
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: in a way that would be more successful. So he
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: doesn't really have another option other than accepting this what
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: amounts to a US surrender. I wonder what you think
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: of that analysis.
• 39:00
  Speaker 10: Well, first, it's important, I think for your audience to
• 39:03
  Speaker 10: know that John's office is literally right next door to
• 39:06
  Speaker 10: mine at the University of Chicago. I'm John's first PhD student.
• 39:10
  Speaker 10: So I got my PhD in December nineteen eighty eight.
• 39:13
  Speaker 10: Two of us went through Mike Deshbob Pape, so maybe
• 39:15
  Speaker 10: I'm the second one if it was done alphabetically. But
• 39:18
  Speaker 10: the bottom line is I've known John since September nineteen
• 39:21
  Speaker 10: eighty two. I started as a PhD student the University
• 39:24
  Speaker 10: of Chicago. He was a first year assistant professor. So
• 39:28
  Speaker 10: needless to say, John and I know each other really well,
• 39:31
  Speaker 10: and I highly respect John's views. So I think there's
• 39:35
  Speaker 10: a couple things to say, Well, this is what it means.
• 39:37
  Speaker 10: What does it mean to return to a full resumption
• 39:40
  Speaker 10: of the war. Well, Iran is not looking for a
• 39:43
  Speaker 10: full resumption of the war. It wants to keep the
• 39:45
  Speaker 10: oil flow under its control and it only needs to
• 39:50
  Speaker 10: use small amounts of force in order to make that happen.
• 39:55
  Speaker 10: For Trump to go back to a full bombing campaign,
• 39:58
  Speaker 10: there's a real op problem. I just posted before I
• 40:02
  Speaker 10: came on on my escalation trap substack, which is Saudy
• 40:06
  Speaker 10: air space. You see right now there's something like eight
• 40:08
  Speaker 10: thousand Pakistani troops and jet fighters also a squadron in
• 40:13
  Speaker 10: Pakistan and they've been there for over a month according
• 40:16
  Speaker 10: to Reuters and others. And what that means that corresponds
• 40:20
  Speaker 10: to when Trump wanted to do that. It is remember
• 40:23
  Speaker 10: he wanted to have a certain operation Operation Freedom. It
• 40:26
  Speaker 10: got shut down because Saudi Arabia. Well, this is Saudi airspace,
• 40:30
  Speaker 10: so there's going to be a real operational limit on
• 40:33
  Speaker 10: just what President Trump can do to go back to
• 40:37
  Speaker 10: this resumption of the bombing in March. So I think
• 40:42
  Speaker 10: that in many ways John is right. But what I
• 40:45
  Speaker 10: would just point out here is that doesn't mean the
• 40:48
  Speaker 10: oil We're not going off a cliff. I mean, the
• 40:50
  Speaker 10: big issue here is the oil inventories are running down.
• 40:56
  Speaker 10: I've been worrying about this for months. They're running down,
• 40:59
  Speaker 10: and that is still ticking away. It has not changed.
• 41:03
  Speaker 10: That means come August first, man, we're on fumes here
• 41:06
  Speaker 10: on the international economy with energy and so this is
• 41:10
  Speaker 10: hurricane seasons come. A lot of things are coming here
• 41:13
  Speaker 10: that could be quite rocky, and this is essentially Aron's leverage.
• 41:18
  Speaker 10: Now by January they may let up on the throttle
• 41:22
  Speaker 10: a little bit, kind of set this tone for the
• 41:24
  Speaker 10: next administration to come. But between now and January, this
• 41:29
  Speaker 10: could be a very rocky time with the world's economy.
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: Well, let's get to the Lebanon element of this. We
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: can put our next element up on the screen. This
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: is reporting from drop site based on or a post
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: on X based from drop site based on the reporting
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: of Courtney. But no, this is going to be be
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: two drop site says Israel continued its military attacks across
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: Sunn Lebanon on Monday, despite a renewed ceasefire on not
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: Sun June twentieth, and then a framework agreed agreement reached
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: on Friday looking at artillery shelling in the outskirts of
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: a village that's about fifteen miles north of the Israeli border. So,
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: Professor Pape, this is for the Trump administration emerging as
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: a challenge almost as monumental as the one with the
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz. Where do you make of the progress
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: or lack thereof when it comes to the US being
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: able to secure this part of a quote unquote ceasefire
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: agreement that would actually be lasting.
• 42:26
  Speaker 10: Yeah, So what I see is this is the Trump administration,
• 42:28
  Speaker 10: or at least part of it, with Secretary Rubio trying
• 42:31
  Speaker 10: to undermine the whole idea of the Article one of
• 42:35
  Speaker 10: the MoU It's the equivalent of a congressional killer amendment.
• 42:39
  Speaker 10: They're called you have an amendment which would undo the
• 42:42
  Speaker 10: entire bill because what this is doing. And Prime Minister
• 42:46
  Speaker 10: in det Yahoo gave a big public video presentation over
• 42:49
  Speaker 10: the weekend on this, and he showed on the map.
• 42:52
  Speaker 10: What this framework means is Israel stays in southern Lebanon.
• 42:56
  Speaker 10: And he pointed that out and absolutely blunt terms, and
• 43:01
  Speaker 10: I'm sure Iran saw that. So this is not a
• 43:04
  Speaker 10: situation where this is fulfilling article one of the MoU
• 43:08
  Speaker 10: It's going the other way around now. From President Trump
• 43:12
  Speaker 10: and Secretary Rubio. They have said, well, this is a
• 43:14
  Speaker 10: minor thing. Iran will just dismiss it. It's the mind. No,
• 43:18
  Speaker 10: I disagree. This is part of Iran's sphere of influence
• 43:22
  Speaker 10: as a rising regional hegemon. They're gonna want a stricture base,
• 43:27
  Speaker 10: a strategic base. That's Horror Moves, that's that great wealth,
• 43:30
  Speaker 10: global economic wealth, and then they want a sphere of influence.
• 43:34
  Speaker 10: This is what powers regional hegemon's want. Russia wants it,
• 43:39
  Speaker 10: China wants that, we want, America want. Iran's gonna want.
• 43:42
  Speaker 10: That is where Lebanon comes in. And Lebanon is important
• 43:45
  Speaker 10: not just for ideological reasons, but recall many of people
• 43:49
  Speaker 10: are talking about pipelines going through Syria to bypass Horror Moves.
• 43:54
  Speaker 10: Lebanon is the perfect aircraft carrier. You've got Hezwa is
• 43:58
  Speaker 10: the perfect troops. There are already drones. They're too basically
• 44:02
  Speaker 10: enforce fees going out through the med if they need to,
• 44:06
  Speaker 10: if those Syrian pipelines occur. So balance of power framework
• 44:11
  Speaker 10: here helps to explain not just generalities, but a lot
• 44:15
  Speaker 10: of the details of what is going on, what Iran wants,
• 44:20
  Speaker 10: why they want it, why we want to undermine it.
• 44:23
  Speaker 10: And that's what I mean by the disagreement. This war
• 44:27
  Speaker 10: can't end until all three sides, the United States, Iran,
• 44:31
  Speaker 10: and Israel, all three sides agree on the new balance
• 44:36
  Speaker 10: of power. That's how wars end.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: You've been telling us since the beginning that we should
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: pay more attention to things that are actually happening versus
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: words that are being said by the various actors involved.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: And in that spirit, let's put before up on the screen.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: There's an increasing amount of publicly available data here. We're
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: talking about satellite imagery confirming the US is continuing a
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: military build up in the person. Golf twenty new refueling
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: aircraft's been spotted at an airbase in Guitar Syncom says
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: it has at least fifty thousand soldiers in the region
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: that are ready for action. What do you read into
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: these dynamics.
• 45:12
  Speaker 10: What I think is this confirms what I've been telling
• 45:15
  Speaker 10: you and forecasting. And also I really appreciate using the
• 45:20
  Speaker 10: right metrics here because people just want to keep you
• 45:23
  Speaker 10: focusing on every post on truth social as if this
• 45:27
  Speaker 10: is somehow the reality. Some are some aren' it's but
• 45:30
  Speaker 10: this is the reality. And by the way, notice that
• 45:33
  Speaker 10: other folks, we're hoping, as you know recently as a
• 45:36
  Speaker 10: week ago, that we're pulling troops out of the region,
• 45:40
  Speaker 10: when that's not the reality. That this is the reality
• 45:43
  Speaker 10: that you see. And I think also Speaker Johnson this morning,
• 45:47
  Speaker 10: he's floating the idea that Congress will give Trump another
• 45:52
  Speaker 10: sixty day window for more operations. We can conduct operations
• 45:59
  Speaker 10: from the sea with our carriers for a long period
• 46:02
  Speaker 10: of time. We have Jordan, we have some other bases here.
• 46:06
  Speaker 10: This is if the idea that this is not gonna
• 46:10
  Speaker 10: there certainly will never be a return to some serious
• 46:14
  Speaker 10: operations is just too much. I would still say President
• 46:19
  Speaker 10: Trump doesn't want to. But remember President Trump thought this
• 46:23
  Speaker 10: was going to be over in three days. He didn't
• 46:24
  Speaker 10: want to get to We're starting month five of the
• 46:28
  Speaker 10: escalation trap. This is month five of the escalation trap.
• 46:32
  Speaker 10: Not day five, not a window. This is where we are.
• 46:36
  Speaker 7: And JD.
• 46:37
  Speaker 10: Vance told us this was never going to happen. President
• 46:39
  Speaker 10: Trump told us this was never going to happen. The
• 46:42
  Speaker 10: problem is they don't have the control. They just don't
• 46:44
  Speaker 10: have the control.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: And Professor Pipple, one thing we've seen just in the
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: last couple of weeks. I'm just thinking about this now
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: as we're talking, is some of your critics the most
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: ardent pro Israel folks out there. I'm curious if you
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: think they kind of proved your point about the escalation
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: trap over the last couple of weeks.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: By saying this MoU is garbage.
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: Trump needs to escalate in order to get a better deal. Now,
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: sometimes they were saying that explicitly, other times they were saying,
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: it's it's a total straw man to suggest this would
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: necessarily involve three thousand ground troops and more deads of
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: American service members and more time spent actually prosecuting the war.
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: But it's hard to get around that would have been
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: the inevitable consequence of this. So just even as we're talking,
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: this occurred to me that some of your critics were
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: calling to escalate as soon as the MoU came out,
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: which may have been perhaps amusing you.
• 47:36
  Speaker 10: It is irony of irony that there is the overlap,
• 47:40
  Speaker 10: as you're pointing out, and I appreciate you telling me
• 47:44
  Speaker 10: about them. Because there's so much I'm doing and writing.
• 47:48
  Speaker 10: I don't read the comments about maybe I should be
• 47:50
  Speaker 10: reading the comment My wife tells me I should be
• 47:53
  Speaker 10: reading the comments. So the way I get the comments
• 47:56
  Speaker 10: is when I talk to you folks, will you read
• 47:59
  Speaker 10: the comments.
• 48:03
  Speaker 7: That?
• 48:03
  Speaker 10: And I just want to point out though that this
• 48:05
  Speaker 10: is this is a very tricky middle game. In this
• 48:09
  Speaker 10: middle game, people want it to be over by a date.
• 48:12
  Speaker 10: You know, we got a midterm coming, We've got the
• 48:14
  Speaker 10: NFL season coming. Man, We're busy. The problem is that
• 48:18
  Speaker 10: this could go on. And I just want to point
• 48:20
  Speaker 10: out over the weekend, the Fire's news service, the IRGC
• 48:24
  Speaker 10: most started talking about going nuclear, actually having nuclear weapons.
• 48:29
  Speaker 10: I've been warning about this. That's saying it's going to
• 48:32
  Speaker 10: happen next month, but over the next year or so,
• 48:34
  Speaker 10: Iran is very much going to want to have nuclear weapons.
• 48:37
  Speaker 10: That's part of becoming that regional hedgehmon, that secure power.
• 48:42
  Speaker 10: This is going to be very difficult for President Trump
• 48:45
  Speaker 10: to just let stand. Maybe he can let it stand.
• 48:49
  Speaker 10: But if Iran were to literally test a nuclear weapon,
• 48:52
  Speaker 10: whether it's in the fall or where year from the fall,
• 48:55
  Speaker 10: that would pretty much end President Trump's legacy. He would
• 48:58
  Speaker 10: then become the Lyndon Johnson. So it's either Hoover or Johnson.
• 49:03
  Speaker 10: These are the problems for President Trump, and I'm just
• 49:06
  Speaker 10: pointing out these are the things that are not really
• 49:08
  Speaker 10: being solved diplomatically. None of them are being solved diplomatically
• 49:13
  Speaker 10: because diplomacy can't do fix what's wrong with the balance
• 49:17
  Speaker 10: of power. The sides have to agree, they have to
• 49:21
  Speaker 10: agree on the new balance of power, and.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: The Iranian, the more hardliners within the Iranian government feel
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: that the US has not suffered enough pain yet to
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: accept that new balance of power. Is that effectively your
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: assessment as well, that you know, whether through a nuclear
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: test or whether through creating more economic pain, that's what
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: it will take.
• 49:40
  Speaker 10: That's right. This is what I said back in March
• 49:42
  Speaker 10: when we first started to say, which is they're playing
• 49:45
  Speaker 10: a long game. And what a long game means is
• 49:47
  Speaker 10: just like with the North Vietnamese, they want to go
• 49:50
  Speaker 10: at the soft underbelly of the United States. In long war,
• 49:53
  Speaker 10: which is those costs mount up, and for many Americans
• 49:57
  Speaker 10: they don't see a vital interest. It's not just it's
• 50:00
  Speaker 10: not so much Americans are too soft, it's they don't
• 50:04
  Speaker 10: If there was an Iranian army in Mexico, I think
• 50:07
  Speaker 10: this would be a different story. But the fundamental problem
• 50:10
  Speaker 10: here is if you just read any of the opinion
• 50:13
  Speaker 10: polls or all the people I talk to. When I
• 50:15
  Speaker 10: talked to quite a few, they don't see the vital
• 50:18
  Speaker 10: interest here for the United States worth paying all these costs.
• 50:23
  Speaker 10: Iran certainly sees the vital interest because we have toppled
• 50:27
  Speaker 10: their governments before, we have just killed their supreme leader. So,
• 50:31
  Speaker 10: my goodness, do they see a vital interest in having
• 50:35
  Speaker 10: a nuclear weapon and just simply being a stronger and
• 50:38
  Speaker 10: imposing these costs. That's why I'm saying, I really think
• 50:42
  Speaker 10: that between now in January, we're gonna see there's a
• 50:45
  Speaker 10: good chance those costs are going to go up, and
• 50:48
  Speaker 10: the point of the cost is not just to make
• 50:50
  Speaker 10: America hurt. The point of the costs will be to
• 50:53
  Speaker 10: get America to truly leave the region. Apparently we've already
• 50:58
  Speaker 10: moved our Chaok, I understand, and that's a command center
• 51:02
  Speaker 10: from Cutter, our air base and Cutter over to the
• 51:06
  Speaker 10: States here. I think what Iran really wants here is
• 51:11
  Speaker 10: America to truly leave the region, and not just President
• 51:15
  Speaker 10: Trump to say he's doing that for a week or
• 51:17
  Speaker 10: two or a month or two. They want this to
• 51:20
  Speaker 10: happen in a substantial way, and that means basically, the
• 51:24
  Speaker 10: American public has to be on board with that.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Fascinating, very dicey times we're living through and very grateful
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: to have your analysis to help us understand what's going on. Everybody,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: go subscribe to the Escalation Trap on substack and Professor
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: Pape hopefully we'll see you back here next week.
• 51:39
  Speaker 10: Absolutely absolutely right there.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: With you, all right, and tell professor Mehrsheim where we
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: said hi when you see him?
• 51:44
  Speaker 7: Oh yes, yes, yes.
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Indictments handed down in an NBA gambling case.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: We can put the first element up on the screen.
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: I'm reading here from ESPN headline X NBA players Milike Beasley,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: Davis indicted in gambling case. Former NBA players now like
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: Beasley and Ed Davis, and an NBA agent the story
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: rights are amongst six defendants indicted Monday on charges related
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: to an alleged sports gambling scheme that targeted at least
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: four games during the twenty twenty three to twenty twenty
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: four season. That is according to the federal indictment that
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: was again released yesterday just in the last twenty four
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: hours here, Davis and co defendants Rob Guardetski, Arnesto Placentia,
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: and William Brown were arrested Monday. According to a spokesperson
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: for the US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: New York, ESPN rights Beasley indefendant paolo's Amorano, who was
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: Davis's agent, were not in custody as of Monday morning,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: but Beasley's attorney is saying they've coordinated with the US
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: Attorney's office for a voluntary surrender later this week now.
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: According to the indictment, ESPN reports, Beasley lost millions of
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: dollars gambling during his nine year NBA career. He agreed
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: to manipulate his stats ahead of at least four games
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: during the twenty three to twenty four season while he
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: was with my team, the Milwaukee Bucks. The code conspirators
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: could wager on the stats. According to the indictment, These wagers,
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: including according to this indictment, were like seventy five thousand
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: dollars net winnings of at least one hundred and twenty
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: one thousand dollars. He, according to the indictment, received bribes
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: from co conspirators.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: I mean this is really brutal stuff, Crystal. Yeah, just
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: going to the news.
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: It's very dark.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: I mean it seems like he, you know, got himself
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: into trouble gambling, probably has a gambling addiction himself. Yep,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: he's deep in the hole. His his teammate Davis, was
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: considered to be the quote unquote gatekeeper in the scheme.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: And I mean, look, they deserve their day in court,
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera, but it looks like they got
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: him dead to rights because they have text messages between
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: them which are pretty damning. Davis text at Beasley at
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: one point, only way you can beat Vegas is sports betting.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: We can make some good money. A month later, Beasley
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: informed Davis he intended to underperform on rebounding in a
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: January twenty six game between the Bucks and the Cavaliers.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: According to the indictment, quote the defendants and their co
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: conspirators placed numerous fraudulent wagers totally tens of thousands of
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: dollars conditioned on defendant Malik Beasley's under rebounds prop bets.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Beasley finished with three bat rebounds. Guess what the batting
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: line was? Three point five rebounds. Other examples of this
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: include a scheme that targeted February twenty seventh game between
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: the Bucks and the Charlotte Hornets, a March tenth game
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: between the Bucks and the Clippers, March twenty first game
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: between the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets. As alleged Malik Beasley
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: allowed himself to be bought and altered his game time performance.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: Two line pockets of Ed Davis and his three other
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: his other co conspirators.
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: So it looks pretty bad. We can put C two here.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: There's a video that has been floating around on on
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: Twitter that looks very much like suspicious gameplay where the
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: game is over, there's literally five seconds left on the
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: clock and he you know that, inbounds the ball they're
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: down nine points and races to the under the other
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: end of the court to dunk the ball and score
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: two more points in the final like zero point one
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: second of the game. Why would you do that when
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: the game is already over, well, he cut the lead
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: from nine to seven and the spread was eight point five.
• 55:18
  Speaker 10: Ye.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: So this is the sort of thing that you know,
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: it appears he was engaged in. And you just look
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: at these indictments and other ones that came before, and
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: it is, you know, there's there's a big problem here.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: There's a big problem here. There's a big problem in
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: terms of college sports betting as well. It really degrades
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: the game, and a lot of it does have to
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: do with these prop bets because it's one thing, it's
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: much more difficult to throw an entire game, but like
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: to grab an extra rebound, or to not grab an
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: extra rebound, or to you know, fake an injury and
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: reduce your playing minutes in a way that you know
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: people can bet on.
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: Like, those sorts of things are very.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: Easily easily manipulated and gamed, and that appears to have
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: been what's going on here.
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: So let's go back to some of the text messages
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: in the indict meant just to point out Crystal's point.
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: You know, obviously everybody deserves their day in court, but
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: what they have on Davis and Beasley here literally Davis
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: saying only way you can beat Vegas is sports, betting
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: everything else. They got the edge. At one point, Beasley says,
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: trying to find like two K. I'll do my best
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: to pay in full on the first. Davis says, you
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: got snapchat. Beasley says, not really. Why Davis says, talk
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: to you about some shit on there, Beasley, you can't
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: do it here. Davis says, better to talk on there.
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: We can make some good money.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: So this is been talking about an NBA player who
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: is struggling to come up with two thousand because of
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: his two thousand dollars because of his gambling debts, and
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: has continued to struggle financially, got you know, evicted from
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: his apartment that he was living in, et cetera, and
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: now is out of the NBA and now being hit
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: with these charges. I mean, it's just extremely dark. As
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: I said before, it's extremely dark.
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: And let's go to C three because this is just
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: speaks to the magnitude of what's happened in recent years.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: This is from.
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: Somebody on X who points out the total amount wagered
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: on sports in the US Back in twenty eighteen, it
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: was at six point six billion. Twenty nineteen, thirteen point
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: one billion, that's a doubling for what it's worth.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Then you get up to twenty one the next.
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: Year, then twenty twenty one it increases from twenty one
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: point five, and twenty twenty to fifty seven point five
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: billion dollars. We get another massive increase by twenty twenty two,
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: ninety three point seven billion. That goes up to one
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: hundred and twenty one billion, in twenty twenty three, one
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: hundred and forty nine billion, in twenty twenty four, and
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five the numbers at one.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Hundred and sixty five billion dollars.
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: That is what That is what has been unleashed, not
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: just in these leagues, but in the entire country in
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: less than ten years. That starting figure, once again was
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: from twenty eighteen and it was at six point six billion.
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: We are now one hundred and sixty five billion dollars,
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: billion dollars. Let's put CBS up on the screen. This
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: is a report they actually did on sixty minutes over
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: the weekend CE four. This is their headline was online
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: prediction market traders make millions betting on US military operation.
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: They went through some of the evidence for how that's
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: happening behind the scenes in really damning ways in just
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: the last year that we've seen significant significant evidence. Once again,
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: by the way, when you have it at the uppermost levels,
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: which like, do we have clear cut damning evidence and
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: not exactly, but we have enough evidence to say there's
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: something going on.
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: It's starting to look pretty damning.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: It's starting to look very damning.
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: And I will just say, though you can't say definitively
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: this person did this, then, but you can look at
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: the whales and such in certain trades and say somebody
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: had this. And then we have these soldiers who were
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: talked about in the sixty minutes report.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: It's like the example for them.
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: Is being set by the absolute tippy top of this,
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: as the same thing goes for NBA players. We're watching
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: the gamification of our entire economy at the presidential level,
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: and these guys are getting caught up in it, and
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: it's dark to your point.
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, they indicted one dude who apparently had inside
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: knowledge of the Venezuela operation and bet on it. And
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: I think it was, like, you know, it was not
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: a small amount of money. It was in the tens
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: of thousands of dollars. But what CBS found and spoke
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: with analysts who've been tracking this stuff. They say, we
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: spotted nine polymarket accounts, all connected, who made collectively two
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: point four million dollars betting almost exclusively on US military operations.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: The gentleman I was just discussing who has been indicted.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: He made four hundred thousand dollars more than I said,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: four in thousand, A lot of money. But on the
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: other side, we have two point four millions. So he's
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: really a small fish when you look at the bigger
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: picture and their win rate for betting on these military
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: US military operations ninety eight percent. Do you think that's
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: just they're just really that lucky.
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: No, of course not.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I mean it's it's statistically virtually impossible to have gotten
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: it correct ninety eight percent of the time, especially when
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: the bets that they're making. I mean, these are highly
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: esoteric things that you would have to be in the know.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: And so then you talk about, okay, well, what's damning
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: about the tippy top of the US federal government, and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: you know, connecting them to this, Well, if it wasn't them,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: wouldn't they be investigating this? Wouldn't they also be investigating
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: There was one whale who has made millions off of
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: you know, we're talking here about polymarket and these sorts
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: of things, but off of traditional insider trading on oil
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: futures and commodities, and that person. If the government wanted
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: to know who they are, the government could know who
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: they are. And perhaps the government does know who they are.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: Are they being prosecuted, No, they are not. So you know,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: this connects to the discussion we are having with Professor
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Pape about the Iran War, the rhythm and flow of this.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: This is just a joke at this point. You know,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: it's all market manipulation. It's all time for Okay, we're
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: gonna we're going to bomb them over the weekend when
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: the markets are closed.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: We're going to have some.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Sort of a report leaked to Axiosis baroque revine right
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: before the market's open, all designed to manipulate the markets.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: Is it far fatched at all to think that this
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: government the most corrupt government in American history, if not
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: in world history, by the numbers that they would be,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: you know, cashing in on in these different ways. No,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: of course that's not hard to imagine. So again, if
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: they wanted to prosecute this type of disgusting insider trading.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: They could easily do it and have plenty of information
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: to be able to make the case and send a
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: warning sign to the rest of the public and the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: you know, various military operators and other people in the
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: know that this is not going to be tolerated.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 5: They're not doing that.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: So let's this is an expert telling CNN. This is
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: Victor Matheson's and economics professor at the College of Holy
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: Cross and an expert in the business of sports and gambling,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: a CNN put a recent article. In this recent article,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: Matheson said that these sponsorship deals between some of these
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: sports books and some of the leagues are probably more
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: than a billion dollars annually. Worth more than a billion
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: dollars annually, I would say that might even be a
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: conservative estimate, but they've become again just since that twenty
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: eighteen Supreme Court ruling. When we were reading earlier, it
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: was like six billion, six point six billion dollars a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: year on sports wagers. We're now at over one hundred
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: and sixty billion a year. So just since twenty eighteen,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: this has become a really crucial part of the industry
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: and it is now completely woven into the fabric of
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: their bottom line. So good luck extricating this now from
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: these leagues, because they're incentive to keep these partnerships and
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: to keep people addicted and hooked. I mean, here's from
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: I'm reading from the Harvard Gazette. Now they say that
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: twenty three percent. There's a twenty three percent NASH increase
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: since the twenty eighteen court ruling in Internet searchers for
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: gambling addiction help. They here's an expert who says, when
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: new forms of gambling appear, the rate of savings go down.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: Then you see the rate of credit card defaults going up,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: and you see the rate of mortgage defaults going up.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: So these are long term financial and societal costs with
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: broad implications. So think about that. Think about the incentive
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: now with these sports leagues, who by the way, have
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: lobbyists here in DC as well, of course, or the
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: sports books certainly have lobbyists here in DC, of course,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: to keep this going at the cost of addiction and suffering.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, it says, it ruins marriages, it can lead
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: to physical abuse. It's a horrible, horrible scourge on the
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: moral fabric of the society. And now our economy is
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: tethered to it in a significant way, and some of
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: these past like American pastimes, are tethered to it in
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: a significant way and have this ugly incentive baked into them.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the reality, Like insider trading is basically the
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: American dream. Now you know, they've decimated the industrial workforce,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: and now they're promising with AI to decimate.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 5: The white collar workforce.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: Costs are so expensive and ever skyrocketing that even if
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: you have a decent job, it becomes increasingly different, difficult
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: to buy a home, get a good education, have health care.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: And so what do they offer. They offer you basically
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: a lotter ticket. That's the dream that's being sold. And
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: so when you look at that landscape, it's no surprise
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: surprise that you see those numbers going up and up
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: and up to one hundred and sixty five billion dollars,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: which is astonishing. It's also no surprise given the way
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: that traditionally men are seen as like the providers, and
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: this is really a bedrock of what it means to
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: be a man, to be able to earn, to be
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: able to provide. That men would be the most susceptible
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: and young men in particular most susceptible to these gambling
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: addictions and to betting on these websites, not just on sports,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: but on everything else. I wanted to give a shout
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: out to Killian Embabe, who's the French soccer star I'm
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: starting to after watching so much World Cup coverage. I
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: almost called him a footballer, but we'll keep an American
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: here with two hundred fifty of the anniversary. Anyway, he was
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: very upset about his image being associated with a betting website,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: and he really objected to that, and he said, the
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: reason why is we has sports betting is destructive. It's
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: ruined the lives of some people.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 8: I know.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: That's why I refuse to appear in sports betting advertisements.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: Many of us come from the suburbs and it destroys
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: the lives of countless people there.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 7: I mean.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: The fact that that is such a.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Remarkable and unique statement that you know, people globally took
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: note of, like, oh my god, I can't believe you
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: said that. That's incredible tells you something about the dire
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: state of affairs here. Where are the other voices from
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: you know, superstar athletes or others in the industry, saying
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: this is unacceptable.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to take part in this whatsoever.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and so this is the Ethics and Public Policy Center,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: which is a very conservative think tank, put out a
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: paper on this just last week, and they're reporting, based
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: on research, ten percent of young men in the US
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: exhibit problem gambling behavior, more than three times the rid
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: of the general population, ten percent of a demographic that
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: was already struggling before we introduced all of this. The
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: percentage of high school students with a gambling problem is
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: double that of adults, and five percent of all young
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: people between the ages of eleven and seventeen meet at
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: least one of the criteria for a gambling problem. These
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: numbers are huge, huge, they say. A study in the
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: UK found that forty nine percent of students reported gambling
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: in the past year, and seventeen percent used their student
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: loan money to gambler to gamble mail. Gamblers in particular,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: spent an average amount on gambling per week that was
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: nearly equal to their grocery budget. Another study in the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: US found that households that put money into online sports
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: betting accounts reduced their financial investing by fourteen percent on average,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: and in states that legalized online gambling. One study found
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: increases in personal bankruptcy rates up to twenty five percent
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: and credit card and auto loan delinquencies of twenty five
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: percent and twenty seven percent, respectively. Finally, the rise in
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: bankruptcy rates translates to roughly thirty thousand more personal.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: Bankruptcies in the United States every year.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: And this is again based on something that is really
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: one of the few industries we have left of unification
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: and monoculture to some extent, the ornfl for example, is
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: one of the few things that actually does bring a
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: lot of people together. It's one of the few things
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: that we all kind of still watch as a country together.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: And this is utterly predatory behavior there now, completely inatricably
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: intertwined with this, and it's causing mass wreckage in the male,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: young male population in particular, which is not really something
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: that young men can afford to have on their shoulders. Additionally,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: that's right with student loans already our significant problem for
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: many reasons that we've covered here for years, and add
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: to that gambling addictions.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking at that one hundred and sixty
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: five billion dollar number and I'm like, where's that even
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: coming from because at the same time you see credit
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: card debt skyrocketing, you know, the costs are going up
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: and up. You know that wages are not keeping up
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: with inflation, and yet more and more of the budget
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: is going to you know, these fundamentally predatory companies.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 5: Very dire situation, so dark.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: It's so dark, and just a sad statement on where
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: we are, and ties back to our Supreme Court conversation
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: earlier in the show, Crystal about what the conservatives Supreme
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: Court hath wrought. Despite this is an interesting tension the
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: conservative groups for years vetting all of these folks to
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: be friendly to industry. It's the perfect tension between the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: free market capitalism that the right claims to espouse and
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: then the family values at the right claims to espouse.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: And this is the product of what's been unleashed over
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: the last eight years. Very good point, all right, Crystal,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: Let's move on to a new survey about the most
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: popular politicians in America.