Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 47: Bowl Week 1 Betting Preview

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Episode 47: Bowl Week 1 Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. At your favorite time of week,
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you download the Crazies shitd you get your something cold to drink, You snuggle
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up, and you get ready to talk about some college football. I'm marking,
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I'm in the college football podcasting studio and Scotty's at home. Man,
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get ready for some ball season. How are you, brother? Man?
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I'm good. Just trying to hammer down loving budgets before the end of the
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years, the least fun part of my job, but we'll get it done.
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Well. You think doing budgets is less fun than trying to track down
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who's going to play on some of these teams when it comes to bull season,
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No, I mean it is. I mean you go in and it
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is as I look right now, they're just in the SEC. There are
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one hundred and sixty four players that entered the portal. One hundred and forty
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seven are still about. I mean that's in one league. I mean you
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are talking a league that's only fourteen teams because Texas and Unklahom aren't in this
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deal yet. I mean only smokes, you're talking ten ten kids. Yeah,
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it's gonna be difficult. So when we're looking at this podcast trying to
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get ready. We finished the season on high notes. We're about ten units
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up. We didn't get an Army Navy podcast out schedules just didn't work out.
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With one game, we thought we'd give it a wash. But we've
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got a shit ton of bowl games. I think there's forty three of them.
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Could be right wrong that we got a total up in there, and
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looking at these used to we would do two podcasts on the bowls. I
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think this time we may break it into three because trying to figure out who's
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gonna be on some of these rosters come game time is becoming difficult, and
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you're seeing massive line shift. I know, right Angle Sports has had some
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releases, The Tailgate Tens had some releases that are putting things out there,
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and so you're having to really try to dig in into the tea leaves and
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figure out who's gonna be on these rosters, what they're gonna do, how
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it's gonna roll. I mean, you look at Oklahoma as an example.
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I mean, Dylan Gabriel's already hit the portal, transferred out. He's gonna
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be at Oregon. But you know you've got to back up kid that everybody's
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excited to see and they don't seem like they're that worried about it, And
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it's just an interesting dynamic. I would say, probably the most difficult and
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strangest bull season I've tried to get ready for since you and I started doing
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this twelve years ago. Oh, there's no doubt about it. This is
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I mean, this is just turning into this is just a fiasca. I
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mean, no other way to there's no other way to say. I mean,
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it is just absolutely insane, no other way, no other way to
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say. I mean, I'm I'm sitting here looking at big ten transfers right
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now and it is wow. I mean, just guys from everywhere, Guys
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that play, guys that start, guys that don't start. I mean,
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it's just it's in I mean, it's insane. I mean just I don't
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The money's ridiculous. This is not sustainable. This is just complete craziness.
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And but you know people are there are people throwing just money at it,
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trying to win now, win fast. They have to do something. This
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is this completely stupid. People are willing to pay it and take off.
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But man, I cannot imagine giving some of these nitws four hundred thousand dollars,
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five hundred thousand dollars. I mean Cataline from Arkansas got half a million
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dollars to sit on the bench at Texas last year. Yeah, we basically
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sending he's back in the portal, you know, I mean, what's he
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looking for now? Is he wont four and a grand again? I mean,
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because he ain't gonna get it and he's sent on the bench. I
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mean just I mean, this is just complete and other stupidity. I mean,
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there's there's no other way to say it. Well, you know they're
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going to have to change the portal again for next year because next year you've
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got to realize with him, we go to the twelve team playoff, and
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whether you're a playoff person or not, that's up to you. I'm all
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for it. It's more quality games. I love bold season still, and
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we're gonna get into kados of the systems you can look at from a breakdown
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perspective. But you know, at the same time, it's like next year,
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when you're gonna have twelve teams in, you're gonna look up and try
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to figure out there's gonna be a kid that's a starter at a key position
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that wants to transfer out, and he has to get in the portal to
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transfer out, possibly before they play their game. And so I don't know,
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man, it is it's an interesting, interesting situation. And I will
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tell you this much. If you are betting on Bowl games, I highly
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recommend, highly recommend maybe playing some half unit plays and not wasting out whatever
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your bank roll would have been if you won. I mean, we won
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on the season, I'm gonna keep some of my winnings in my pocket as
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I come back in here to wager, because you got lines that are moving
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daily with releases. I mean, you look at the screen now and it's
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I mean, there's been changes in the last ten minutes on games you and
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I are about to talk about on this podcast, and so yeah, there's
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just there's so much happening in so many coming in leaving. You know.
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It's just I mean, it really is. I mean just crazy. You
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know what's going on. And I'll tell you I'm not going to gamble a
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ton on especially these early Bullet Bowl games. I probably will as we get
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to the playoff. My only thing on the on the twelve team playoff,
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we have to make some adjustments to the schedule these kids can't play. So
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let's take Let's take let's take Alabama for instance, when we go to a
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twelve team playoff that they still have an SEC Conference championship and Bama wins it,
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and let's not even think Bama. That's a poor, poor example.
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Let's take Georgia. They still are going to make a twelve team playoff.
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They lost that ball game. They're what the sixth seed and what they had
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them the uh so they've got to play the first round game. So that
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means they have got to play to cut it to eight, then play to
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cut it to four, because they likely when play to cut it to two,
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you're talking three or four more games. If you're gonna go win a
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Natty on top of thirteen games, that's an NFL schedule. I mean,
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I want to know, other than money, what the hell anybody's thinking about.
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I have to watch the rule in football every week that a kid gets
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cost for targeting. I'll take the Mississipi State player against Old Mits. That's
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a HiT's by rule, that was targeting by rule, that was targeting.
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What else is he supposed to let do get first down? He's trying to
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stop him from getting the first down. That's the reasoning goes in low.
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It's three to the quarterback goes so he gets tost trying to make a great
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football play. We're just concerned about player safety, but we can go play
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seventeen games. I don't know. That's the thing I've ever seen. I
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would love to listen to someone intelligent that that is going to try to sell
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this to people, for me to ask that question and watch them stumble dead
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ass over it for forty minutes as they own an odd because it doesn't square
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well, it doesn't. It's like in politics telling me we got a gender
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pay gap and saying, oh, but we don't know what a girl and
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a boy are if that makes sense. It's not logical. It does not.
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You cannot tell me you're concerned about player safety and telling that we ought
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to take a nineteen year old kid and say, you know what, you
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gotta play seventeen games. He plays at an Ohio State and he's gonna play
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sixteen or seventeen games all three years. He's in college for four years.
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He's in college. That's bottom line. That's at it. He is four
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years into an NFL career. The day he walks out of this out of
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Ohive's state. Yeah, I mean, but same thing. If you're on
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a good high school football team, you're going to play a twelve to fifteen
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game schedule if you make it all the way to state championship. And so,
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I mean I and these guys are getting paid. With the portal the
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way it's all set up, I don't care. I'm here to gamble and
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have a good time and watch the college football. And these guys are getting
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it, you know, as good as it's ever been at this point.
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I mean, you can roll in and out of the portal. You're getting
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paid. I mean, now you're going to start putting contracts together and be
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like, hey, if we make it to the college football playoff, you
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cannot go in the portal, you know, or you're not getting the bonus
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check at the end of the rainbow on this thing. And so it's just,
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yeah, it's an interesting time. It's an interesting time. And it's
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been like that. What are your thoughts on the guys who are going into
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the portal and then they're saying, oh, we don't get the we don't
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get the money. You know, Oh I didn't get what I was promised.
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Well, I mean that's kind of part of life. I mean,
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I don't know how these contracts are all set up, and you don't know
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what's in there, but there's a lot of handshake deals that are going on.
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I can't wait for all the tax evasion problems that these guys are going
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to run into down the road. But if it ever comes out on what's
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going on with this money. But yeah, let me tell you this year,
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they're back wanting brown bag specials. It was all poor money of those
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first that first year or two, and now they're all like, oh,
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we got pay taxes on that. I'm making five hundred thousand dollars. Hey,
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I want to fifty under the table. Yeah, it's a well,
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that's how you get stuck because I don't may be like, you know what.
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Let's take Catalan for instance. If he makes that deal, you ain't
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even play it. I ain't giving you two pipes. He may go full
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Rick, he may go full Rick. James, Man, fuck your couch.
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This is what I want right now, this is my deal. I'm
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gonna put my money ass feet on this couch. I want my money now.
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That's what he's gonna say. I love it. I mean look,
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it's a fiasco. You know. I'm not a fan of the Here's the
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thing. I have no problem with guys getting paid, but it really ought
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to be an nil deal. This is just paid for play, and when
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you combine that with a wide open portal, it's a fiasco. I mean,
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what's going on right now is a fiasco, and it's both. It's
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not just players, so please don't take it that way. You got teams
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cutting guys loose as well, like Matt making no investment to work on those
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kids and get them better. It's just like hit the road, We'll find
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somebody else in the port. So I don't like it all the way around,
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but they have to do something on a pay structure scale to even this
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out. There are teams that simply just can't compete. They don't have a
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chance to be successful. And then you've got teams that basically it looks like,
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just have unlimited money that their fan base wants to win so bad they'll
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pay and do whatever they got to do just so they can brag at the
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country club about doing it. That's not me. I would never get one
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of these nitwiths gigantic money. But whatever, you know, it is.
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That's not me. I listen to a lot of people talk about and bragging
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about what all they do all the time. Take off. It's your money.
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You do what you want to do. But I think it's the dumbest
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thing ever to give it to somebody. If you got kids, and not
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give it to your kids. Take an investment account all the three hundred and
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four hundred grand for your kid and watch what it is if he's fifteen years
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old when he's sixty. But I digress. Oh boy, All right,
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Scottie, we're gonna jump into this. We're gonna try to knock out the
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first handful of Bowl games this Saturday. We've got a full slate, looks
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like about eight to ten games that we've got dialed up. And if you
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think gambling on this is difficult, the NFL is not any better. Because
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there's so many backup quarterbacks playing. You're just all over the map trying to
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keep up with it. But we'll roll through each of the games, let
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you know if we've got to play or not, and what that's going to
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be. First game we've got is Saturday, which would be Georgia Southern and
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Ohio would be matched up in this one line opened at let me see here,
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because we've had a lot of line movement, so let me pull this
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thing up. Line open to Ohio minus one and a half over Unders fifty
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four and a half. Immediately got bet down on the news that Roark will
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not be playing or Rourke won't be playing for a quarterback at Ohio and the
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Unders now forty nine and a half and Georgia Southern is now minus three and
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a half. I'm rolling Georgia Southern here. This is actually one of my
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favorite plays in this early slate minus three. I'm gonna try to find a
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minus three. I might even just take the money line at about minus one
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fifty Ohio. You know that was one of our big teams in the MAC.
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And this team has just not looked good all season. They've looked broken
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offensively. They've never been able to get this thing rolling. Georgia Southern's gonna
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want to fling it all over. And the other reason I really like Georgia
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Southern here is this is a mix Sunbelt matchup. And I remember a few
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years ago we thought these would be awesome to get the max. Terrible.
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It has got to be the worst conference by far, with all the portal
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things that have gone on because they really need player development and the Sun Belt
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brother they got like almost their whole conference made of Bowl this year, and
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it's been good football all the way around in this And I have gonna roll
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with Georgia Southern minus three or minus one point fifty and take them on the
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money line for my first bet of the Bowl season. I like that.
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I like that as well. You know, I will tell you that.
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I I just think that MAC is the It was worse this year, and
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they didn't get enridged as bad as you think. I mean, look,
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we all watched the MAC defensive linemen from Florida State make some huge plays,
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but at the same time they didn't some of the better teams didn't get destroyed
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in the portal like like you would expect that in my case, this year,
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my friend, there are more. There are so many dudes in the
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portal. I think they've got one hundred and seven in the portal right now
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from the MAC. Ninety five still available. Uh they're gonna get some attention,
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They're gonna get some action for some guys, and uh so it's gonna
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it'll be interesting. I just do not that this team was so inept when
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Rorke couldn't play that, I have no confidence. And I look, I
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understand I got the head coach offensive guy for the more offensive coordinator, been
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there for years. I understand that he's got time to adjust that and get
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some play in for this Bowl. Games had a couple of weeks, but
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it just didn't look like that backup was capable of doing it. No,
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they're gonna have to go more of a lot of quarterback run stuff like that.
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I just think Georgia Southern's too explosive here, can score too many points.
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I think they separated. I like Georgia Southern a lot in this game.
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Myrtle beats Bowl, by the way, kicks off ten am Saturday morning,
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Central Time, eleven Eastern. It'll be your first play. We're gonna
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take Georgia Southern on the money line and we're gonna take some of minus three.
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I'm gonna skip the Cricket Celebration Bowl, but if I play it,
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I'm playing Florida A and M. They've kind of been a wagon this year
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in the FCS. It's called Arnold Carrier's New Orleans Bowl. Interesting matchup Jacksonville
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State against Ula Lai in this one, and you know Ula hy has played
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here several times have done really well. New Orleans and Lafayette are just a
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stones throw away from each other. But I kind of like Jacksonville State in
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this game. I haven't played it yet, but Jacksonville State, I think
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they're stoked to be in a bowl game, and ULL snuck into being six
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and six by the skin of their teeth. I know, we just talked
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about the Sun Belt being a good conference in what it was this year,
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but I like Jacksonville State here. This is a team all year that competed
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hard. They run with a lot of tempo, their defense is actually pretty
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good, and ULL just did not do anything to impress me. I lean
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Jacksonville State, but I don't have a play on that one yet. Yeah,
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you know, Jacksonville State obviously did a pretty good job, but I
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will probably stay away from this game that. I still am stunned that he
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got them to nine wins this year. It's just an incredible job. But
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Rich Ride Bavy, Rich Royde, I will probably stay away from that game
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just because there's games I like better. Next one we got. I'm gonna
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try to name all these and tell you where they are. Ooh, this
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is the Cure Bowl, but is the Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl. Highly
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recommend watching this one. It's gonna be some fantastic commercials. We got Miami
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of Ohio, Appy State. I'll be lining up in this one, and
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let me get you a number here. App State opened up four and a
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half over unders fifty one and a half. Current line is minus six and
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a half for Appalachian State and forty four and a half is the total.
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If you're gonna play this one, I would lean to taking Appalachian State.
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They had an offensive explosion at the back end of the season. You know,
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they pulled that win out against JMU, but they really started flowing better.
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I thought in Miami, Ohio, since they've gone to the backup quarterback,
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has been really limited offensively. I think that they kind of were putting
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up with seventeen to eighteen points a game those last couple of games. Really
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leaning on the defense. In this spot, I might play a first half
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under as well. I like playing a lot of those in bowl games.
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But I don't have a play here, but i'd lean Appy State. Yeah,
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I would lean Appy State as well. Exactly what you said. I
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think they may. I think we may have too much of a of a
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difference and talent on that offense. That offense got where it was playing pretty
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well for Happy at the end of the year. So I expect them to
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be a good be a good football team in this in this deal. But
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they've you know, they've had some guys hit the portal too, So again,
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you just never know what you're going to get in these kinds of ball
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games. And the difficulty on the portal because guys, we see guys hit
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portals and sometimes they've been just ushered along or the other team doesn't want them
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back. They think they're worth X and the team's only willing to pay them
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why and those numbers don't match up with boom that guy's in the portal,
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you know, And so sometimes it's a mutual parting of the ways, or
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sometimes they've been forced to go into the portal. So it really is you
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got to read the tea leaves of this of who is thereby force and who's
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there by choice. Anyway, I have got that Scottie, the new you
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know, the next one I'll be on. Let's get to the isleta New
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Mexico Bowl. This will be playing in Albuquerque. New Mexico State, Diego,
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Pavia, Baby, and FRESNAK will be in this one. I expect
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this to be a sellout. I mean, they're playing in their hometown.
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I think New Mexico State fans are gonna roll out like crazy. Oh that's
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right, they've been the same state. Yeah, you're right, I'm sorry,
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but they're in the same state. I expect this one to be sold
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out. I don't expect Fresno to have anybody at this one. Tedford's not
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coaching after a surgical procedure, and Fresno State really fell off at the end
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of the season. On this one, New Mexico State comes in minus one
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and it's a minus three over unders at fifty one. I'm gonna take New
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Mexico State on the money line at minus won fifty. Just take them to
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win on this one and roll from there. I like New Mexico State.
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Jerry Kill covers. Let's get it done and let's take New Mexico State one
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more time this season. Kickoff late in the afternoon. That's gonna be about
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probably forty degrees at kickoff. Low's going down to twenty nine. Going'd be
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nice and crisp for the boys from Fresno. Yes, I would take New
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Mexico State in this ball game from game one. I feel like the wind
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always blows balls in this game too, but it's supposed to be limited in
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this one yet it's not that weather looks great on Saturday. It's a high
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fifty, just a slight chance rain, wind, small wind out of the
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north at six. Love the trophy too, the giant Indian sculpture thing that
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they've got there, the big vase. Didn't Leach almost drop it one year
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when he was at Washington State when they wanted to anyway. So I'm rolling
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New Mexico State minus three on the money line that we've got from that one.
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Next we want to go to we'll go to another what we could call
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a home game is the Starko Brands LA Bowl hosted by Gronk. Did you
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know that I love it? You got Ucla and Boise State, you would,
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and this was being played at so they're playing at Englewood. You would
20:00
think UCLA is gonna fill it out. I don't know what kind of fan
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base you're gonna get from either one of these teams. Boise State fired Avalos
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six to eight in the games into the season, then proceeded to go ahead
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and qualify for the conference championship and get all the way. I mean,
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what a strange situation this has been with them. The offensive coordinators gone,
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the guy that was the interim is now taken over as the head coach in
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this position, and the starting quarterback from Boise State, oh, by the
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way, has transferred out. He's gone. The starting quarterback at UCLA has
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transferred out. He's gone. The backup quarterback for UCLA has transferred out.
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He's gone. So you're probably gonna get Ethan Garber's in this one. And
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I'm not even sure who's playing for Boise State at this point because it's their
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third string quarterback I believe. I don't even think Masterson's there anymore. And
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you've lost all the wide receivers from Boise We talked about this a few weeks
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ago. Uh, this line, looking at it now, over unders forty
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eight and a half, UCLA is laying four. I'm gonna play this game
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first half under and probably full game under if I can get a forty nine,
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because I don't know how Boise State's gonna score on this UCLA defense.
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And I don't think Chip Kelly gives a shit about bowl games. He's got
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a terrible record in bowls as far as covering goes. But I think the
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defense will step up and play hard. And then you've got to back up,
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backup, backup quarterback for UCLA in there. That's not nearly as athletic
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as either one of the guys that they had in front of him. So
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if I'm I'm going under first half and under full game in this one,
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Kelly could care less, but he's gonna care more than the fans. There
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won't be eight people there. I mean, they can't draw people to a
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good game. No, I mean unless they're gonna give away free beer and
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Nacho's, there ain't gonna be anybody at this game. And so I mean
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Boise will have more fans there, probably than UCLA does, because those guys
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do love Bois. They are not scared to pack up and follow the Broncos.
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But and I got UCLA's just I just they better learn to travel,
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they better learn to support their team as they're getting ready to go into Big
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Ten because it's gonna be a they'll have their house taken over. Especially when
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they start playing in November, teams will be people will be like, man,
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I get to go to LA in November. Let's go knock this out.
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They will fill up their stadium. Yes, the under is the way
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to go. I like the under in this ball game. First, that's
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probably not a bad play in this So I like both your calls on this.
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If you want a BP ticket to the LA to the LA Bowl,
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you can get one for one hundred and thirty dollars. If you still need
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a ticket, and my guess is if you hold your water, it'll get
22:41
cheaper if you'll wait until Friday. Is what you've got in that situation.
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And you want to know what the beauty of that is, The universities are
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both stuck paying to fifty for Bowl tickets or whatever. You know. Next
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one we got. Next one we got here The Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl played
22:56
in shreve Vegas, Louisiana, to one of the coldest games I have ever
23:02
sat in person at. We're in the Independence Bowl. One was to watch
23:04
Mississippi State play where we were actually I wasn't with you, but we were
23:08
actually taking fence post off of the Louisiana State Fairgrounds and burning them in the
23:14
parking lot to stay warm. And then it snowed, it sewed balls.
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And then I was also at this game to watch Texas Tech because y'all played
23:22
A and M and I was there to watch Texas Tech play Old Miss And
23:27
it was so cold and we were in the back of the end zone at
23:30
the top wind was blowing. It was a field goal. Don't miss When
23:33
that was a field goal, I didn't even remember, to be honest with
23:36
you. It was so cold in that spot. And then you get to
23:38
warm yourself up by going to like the Horseshoe, which is a complete dungeon
23:42
of a casino that you can get in there and get you some five dollar
23:45
craps. You know, if I'd known about the Iron Cross back then,
23:48
I would have probably just stayed at the Horseshoe and just bet the Iron Cross
23:52
in the No. Four, No Ten for hours at a time to see
23:56
time. I have a great story for the listeners for that ball game.
24:00
But against an M when it snowed, none of us had like wet I
24:03
mean, you don't expect to snow well, you couldn't get the weather back
24:07
then. The way had cell phones. Yeah, that's exactly right. So
24:08
we're all traveling and nobody knows that it's about to snow. And I will
24:12
never forget tailgating. The guy who flew the university team playing, I knew
24:18
he had a daughter of my age. And he looks up and goes,
24:21
dude, you were gonna free to debt. And I'm like, you talking
24:23
about it? He goes, man, that wool COT's gonna be soaking wet
24:26
in about two hours. I'm like, what, no idea, it's gonna
24:30
snow. I literally walk in to the stadium, roll right up to the
24:36
concession stand, this girl standing there. I said, I would like to
24:38
buy about five garbage bags, and the girl looks at me and goes,
24:42
what, we don't sell garbage bags. I laid twenty dollars on the counter.
24:48
There's a whole roll right over there. I said, at this point,
24:49
we're just negotiating the price. She looks at me, takes that twenty
24:53
dollars and goes, Honey, for twenty dollars, you can have the whole
24:56
roll. I said, I don't need the whole roll. I sneak five
24:59
or six off. Went We watched the game dry as that game. Jamark
25:03
Toombs was the big running back for A and M in that game, and
25:07
David and we had a huge guy to Donte Walker. They actually have a
25:12
pretty good team that year, Dante Walker the sins of Miller. They actually
25:15
were pretty good that year. So back to this game, Texas Tech Cal
25:19
in this one. Uh, this is going to be actually a pretty fun
25:22
game to watch. I think the weather's actually supposed to be pretty good in
25:25
this one. If you haven't watched COL play this year, this is not
25:27
the Cal team of the last couple of years. They've got some go go
25:30
offense. They'll get it moving around. I'm assuming they'll be interested to play
25:33
in this game because they hadn't been Bowl eligible in a bit and Texas Tech
25:37
coming in here probably off of what you could consider to be a disappointing season.
25:41
A lot of high expectations for Tech didn't get there, but they did
25:45
finish six and six and they do get to go to a Bowl game.
25:48
Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shuck broke his leg and is transferring out. I think
25:52
he'll be twenty five years old next year when he starts, which is crazy.
25:56
But the backup quarterback's been in there, and this team has been very,
26:00
very run reliant. Brooks is coming back from the best I could heard
26:03
for another year. He led the Big twelve and was one of the top
26:07
rushers in the country. With you in Texas defenses, I think it's a
26:11
little bit more stout than you would expect here. I like Texas Tech.
26:15
You can find a minus two and a half. I would take Texas Tech
26:18
minus two and a half in this one over unders fifty eight. Lead me
26:21
to believe we're gonna get some fireworks in this one. I would almost a
26:23
little bit under two, but I would definitely take Texas Tech minus the points.
26:27
I think they're going to ground and pound in this one, where Kl's
26:30
going to be trying to air it out, and so I would lean Texas
26:33
Tech minus two and a half in the spot. Yeah, I agree with
26:37
you like Texas Tech here. I just think they I think they've had some
26:41
bad luck. I think that people forget how close they were to end in
26:45
Oregon's national title hopes really early, and how close that ball game was to
26:52
being an upset. I think this is still a good football team. I
26:56
think it's a coach that has still dialed in. I think it is a
27:00
coaching staff that is completely bought in in Lovewock and so I expect to get
27:07
a decent effort out of this football team, and in balls season that means
27:10
a lot. I could see an under in this ball game too. The
27:15
best part of cast team is their defense. Yeah, I say that for
27:18
a team that's given up over thirty points a game, but at the end
27:22
of the day, that really is probably the best part of their team.
27:26
So I can see this may be being low scoring as well, but I
27:29
like Tech here to get it done. Yeah. This light game just got
27:32
hit station's numbers moving and they went to the over at fifty nine, so
27:36
it'll be interesting to see if that follows along. But yeah, I will
27:41
play Texas Tech in this one. So I've got three bets currently that will
27:44
put those in and we'll recap those back at the end. Next one we
27:47
got here, Scotti is the famous Toastry Bowl with Western Kentucky and Old Domino
27:52
being played in Charlotte. I got nothing here. I would lean Old Domino.
27:56
Western Kentucky just has not been good all season, but I got no
28:00
play in this one. I wouldn't bet this game. With your money,
28:06
little store. He probably stoked to be there because they only got to only
28:08
played eleven games, so they get in with a five and six record.
28:14
But you know that at the end of the day that I got nothing on
28:18
this game. Let's move on to a game that's about a driver in a
28:21
three wood from your house, the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl, with Utsa and
28:26
Marshall being played in this one line opened at eight and a half for UTSA
28:30
over Runders at fifty six. Now Utsa is laying twelve and a half,
28:34
with fifty three being the number. Cam banccher, the starting quarterback for Marshall's
28:40
in the portal. He's apparently not gonna he's gone, but you know,
28:44
you read a lot of stuff and apparently they didn't really like him in the
28:47
locker room, so maybe they don't really give a shit that he's leaving.
28:48
But we'll see. But the Lion's moved all the way up to twelve and
28:52
a half thirteen. I think they're expecting this to be the Frank Harris Swansong
28:56
game that's in there. That's too many points. I'm not laying thirteen.
28:59
I'm gonna probably watch this game and see if there's an in game spot for
29:02
it. But I lean utsa in a confidence pool, but I wouldn't bet
29:07
this at thirteen. Yeah, I totally agree with you. Man. It's
29:10
so pissed. I can't go to this ballgame Tuesday night. My son's got
29:14
school and I'm not going to torture him with going because I still want to
29:18
go. Sucks, So he's got school the next morning. This game's pretty
29:22
late. Yeah eighty clock kickoff, Yeah, eighty clock kickoff next game.
29:27
I like this one a lot. The roofclaim dot com Boca Raton Bowl that
29:32
you've got USF and Syracuse playing this one. I do not understand this line
29:37
at all. Syracuse is opened at minus five and a half. Now they're
29:41
minus three over unders at fifty seven and a half, and it's moved all
29:45
the way to sixty one. I like South Florida. I think they're a
29:48
great underdog play in this spot. I think they get it done offensively South
29:53
Florida. I mean, most people only watch South Florida play the Alabama game
29:57
early on the season, with that months soon that was going on, and
30:00
they were completely overmatched with the defense that Alabama had. This offense can go
30:06
and they put up a ton of points. We played them several times in
30:08
the last couple of weeks of the season. I've taken South Florida as my
30:11
money line underdog play. I like South Florida to get this one done.
30:17
That's probably my favorite line of the week. Ooh, interesting, that's probably
30:21
my That's probably my of this group of If it's not this, it's Georgia
30:26
Southern. So that is those the two games that I that I really like
30:30
this week, So biggest players. We got South Florida, Well, Georgia
30:33
Southern Texas Tech would be one, and then I've got a little money line
30:38
on New Mexico State would be my spot where I'm gonna play it at minus
30:42
one. P fifty would be the fourth games that I'll probably get involved in
30:45
here, and I'm gonna play some first half unders. I'm pretty sure.
30:48
I really think that. With these guys being off for a couple of weeks,
30:52
you've got to think too. I mean, I know you're trying to
30:53
cram in all these extra practices, so that'll keep some focus on these guys.
30:57
But with the coaches having to go through all the recruiting season being the
31:02
portal. You just got to wonder how much focus is going to be on
31:04
these and typically you'll see defenses come out because with defense, scheme is not
31:10
necessarily the biggest thing you're going to get out of these things. It's a
31:12
matter of just execution, and offenses is a lot of time. We see
31:17
it a lot in the beginning of the season. They just don't execute as
31:18
well when you're not up to game speed. And all these teams have had
31:22
several weeks off, so you can look at that. We've played that trend
31:25
several times. But that's what I've got so far. So that'll get us
31:27
all the way to Thursday, December twenty First, next one I got.
31:32
Let me ask you this, Do you have anything Leans plays on the Natty
31:36
Yet I do not. I will tell you that that Texas Washington game.
31:45
I keep going back and forth and back and forth, and back and forth
31:51
and back and forth because I call myself into one side. I loved Washington
31:56
all year, and that is what it has me confused, and that's what
32:00
I keep trying to research and talk myself out of. Do I just like
32:04
them and I've liked them because Texas is more talented, So I think I
32:09
think that's gonna be a great football game. Can I absolutely cannot wait to
32:15
watch it. And yes, Alabama I think wins the ball game. Straight
32:20
up. I think they beat I think they beat Michigan. I think Michigan
32:24
is so flawed on offense. I really do think that that Bama's gonna be
32:31
able to score enough to win. I would tell you right now, if
32:35
you like Bama, go ahead and take it and get you some positive money
32:38
line question because Mike, I guarantee you by the time I'll be shocked when
32:45
we do our podcast or but the day we get to game time, because
32:47
you'll be able to lay seven figures on these games. At least syndicates will
32:52
come down in these And I think they're gonna pound Bama. I really really
32:55
do. And with Michigan, they play bully ball. They're going to try
32:59
to overpower you. And I just don't think you can give Nick Saban a
33:02
month to get ready for a football game and he's gonna get out schemed in
33:07
the trench. I mean, they're gonna be healthy, they're gonna be ready
33:10
to roll, and I just I just can't see it. And so I
33:15
would leave Bama and I'm with you on the Washington stuff. Washington getting plus
33:19
four, I don't hate it. I mean, I've got a Washington I've
33:22
got a Washington ticket to win the Natty. I've got a Bama ticket to
33:24
win the Natty at forty to one that I bet on after the South Florida
33:30
game, and so it wouldn't hurt me at all to see it. But
33:34
I could see Texas pulling this one out. But I like Washington plus four.
33:37
I think this team's getting disrespected. They got disrespected the last time.
33:43
And I think Kaylin de Borr. The one thing we haven't talked about because
33:45
we'd have a recap the game. Offensive game plan that Washington have in that
33:51
Oregon game and the play calling I thought was fantastic and I was super impressed
33:55
by Pennix's execution, But the game plan, the creative play calling, I
34:00
thought was the biggest difference in that game. And the other thing was everybody
34:04
talked about the Washington defense not being able to step up. I thought they
34:07
played really well. I thought they controlled a lot of scrimmage and were very
34:09
aggressive well and everybody forgets they were banged up in that middle, and that's
34:15
where look that's where playing in the league where it's not physical every week helps
34:21
you because they were able to get healthy and not get exposed. And this
34:27
is true a lot of case times in the Big Ten too, because a
34:30
lot of those teams are physical. But the SEC is the same way it.
34:32
Man, you get banged up and you're down three defensive linemen or you
34:37
got All American out because basically their best player was out or really banged up
34:42
for a couple of three weeks, and you get exposed. I mean,
34:45
that's what happens because there's so much talent in the league. And I had
34:50
somebody tell me I'm just an SEC homer. No, I'm a talent homer.
34:55
And the draft bears out that the SEC is the most talented league every
35:00
year. I meant, Mississippi stid turn on a Sunday. There are Mississippi
35:06
State guys making plays all over the NFL. Well, the worst teams in
35:09
the league, I mean, and even when those guys were there, Chris
35:13
Jones and Jeffrey Simons, they were waiting for them. Yeah, I mean,
35:16
it's it is insane how much talent's running around down there. And that
35:23
gets me back to you know, Washington was able to get through that.
35:29
Look, all my research all seasons said they had a chance to end up
35:32
exactly where they're there, swelveing of them at least eleven and one and booth.
35:37
Here they are, having won their conference, they're thirteen and oh this
35:42
is a really good football team. And I think the same thing's true.
35:45
But Texas went through that stretch. Everybody's all, well, they're gonna lose
35:50
because they got so and so and so and so. Well, they were
35:52
banged up in the middle, they lost their quarterback. I mean, they
35:55
were drilling Houston until you weers gets hurt. You know it is it's a
36:00
different it's a different time. They lost their running back for a stretch,
36:06
get banged up during the football season, and the great teams figure out how
36:09
to what find a way to keep winning. And which is very much to
36:13
the argument of should Florida State be in there, because I do think that's
36:15
a really good football team. I do think it's we have not talked about
36:20
this, but I do think it is completely fabulous that the ACC commissioner is
36:24
who prevented it from being a twelve team playoff this year, and they're the
36:29
league to get screwed. It kind of is what they deserve. Go blame
36:34
your athletic director. You'd be still playing and guess what you beginning to buy
36:37
week because they would have been the four seed. If everybody's qualified guarantee you
36:40
they wouldn't have penalized them. So anyway, having said that, they got
36:45
what they deserve, I think Washington is my is probably going to be my
36:50
play, and I'm on Alabama already. I just don't think they're explosive enough.
36:55
They got basically one really good wide receiver Michigan, and I don't think
36:59
he's gonna it would get open against that that defensive back set. So I
37:02
like, I like Alabama here. I think they just get it done.
37:07
I'll tell you what I think. Some stun Michigan is the first time Obama
37:12
QB takes off running and mill Row kicks it into gear. He's so fast,
37:15
guy. They's gonna be like, holy smoke, this guy's past.
37:21
We played him in high school, dude, and I mean it was he
37:23
was a grown man then. And so when the season first started this year
37:28
and everybody's like, Ah, this guy's not gonna make this guy's kind I
37:30
was like, man, look I saw this dude play real live and it's
37:32
like he's just getting his feet underneath them a little bit. And obviously he's
37:37
playing with a ton of confidence through there. And I'm like Jones at Arkansas,
37:42
Yeah, all right, how he took those long strides and until you
37:47
playing, you didn't realize it's count the fastest Cauntlefield. That's exactly the way
37:53
it is with mill Roe. It's like he doesn't look like he's running hard,
37:57
but it's like boom, he's running past some dbat, you know,
38:00
and you're like, what in the world's going on. I do think that
38:04
is gonna for the first quarter, first half of the ballgame. Michigan's going
38:07
to be like, holy smokestack. He doesn't look like he's that fast now
38:10
he's so I do think there will be an adjustment for that. I think
38:15
there's an adjustment for most people the first time they played Bill I really do,
38:20
because Texas never had to deal with it. They didn't try to run
38:22
the eat. No, he was well, I mean, Matt Jones was
38:25
fast. He was also a storting cocaine off the dashboard on a certain points
38:30
in his life, and so I mean remember turning off the helmet at half
38:34
time, so he had a little extra go go going from that. Folks,
38:37
that being said, give us some reviews, hit us up on Twitter.
38:40
We always enjoy the feedback, the nice notes. We'll be back with
38:44
you next week. We get another boll cast out that'll rap us through Christmas,
38:47
probably right up until the semifinals, and looking forward to trying to make
38:51
a few extra dollars. But with folks, do not go hard and have
38:54
you on these ball games unless you're willing to dig in, because don't be
38:58
surprised if we don't turn the game come on and you look up and one
39:00
of the guys you thought was playing may not be playing for whatever reason may
39:04
be. Because that'll happen to you. It's happened to us before. And
39:07
so like I said, maybe be a little half unit on some of these
39:09
things and keep your weddings in your pocket. Folk, It's been a great
39:14
season and we will talk to you all again next week.