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USC vs. Washington Preview · Reign of Troy Radio on USC Football

0:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Rain a short hot line.
0:03
[SPEAKER_01]: At least you know Michael what's going on.
0:05
[SPEAKER_01]: We know you have takes, we have takes.
0:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm back to surprise that you're a rant line, rape line, whatever it is, completely full.
0:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Why can't we just win a game?
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Can I blame Michael Caspio for this?
0:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Can I blame Bob Connelly for this?
0:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Can I put on a zebra shirt and just go out there?
0:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Scratch, claw, up against the wall.
0:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Can't explain it while I'm feeling right now, guys.
0:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't believe it.
0:25
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's open up that raised ball.
0:31
[SPEAKER_04]: or can't believe USC is undefeated in the SEC.
0:36
[SPEAKER_04]: Wait, we're in the big tent.
0:39
[SPEAKER_04]: What's the record?
0:40
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh no!
0:43
[SPEAKER_01]: everybody welcome back to editor radio episode 660 coming to you on Wednesday September 30th.
0:48
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to preview USC and Washington the Trojans and the Huskies Lock and horns at the Colosseum 430 p.m. on Saturday on NBC We're going to talk about the highs and lows of the matchup.
1:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Give you our predictions and so much more.
1:04
[SPEAKER_01]: As always you can follow us on social media right in front of email us right after a fan said a comment our phone number
1:09
[SPEAKER_01]: eight one eight six four three seven two two seven second votes per show.
1:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Michael Gistillo journalist my co-host here in the rain first studio in Los Angeles.
1:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Alicia there to all.
1:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Hello everybody.
1:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Hello.
1:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh things are bad man.
1:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks are bad.
1:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Rumory in the chat.
1:27
[SPEAKER_01]: My pod raise or be any Michaels cubs right now.
1:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And close to ending their season.
1:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, it is car.
1:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, we got it.
1:35
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a two.
1:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a two plan.
1:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Jackson Merrill thrown out at first on a two plan.
1:40
[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.
1:42
[SPEAKER_01]: The cup still trail for one bottom of the six.
1:44
[SPEAKER_01]: So not good there, but we're talking football.
1:48
[SPEAKER_01]: here.
1:48
[SPEAKER_01]: At least, how do you feel it?
1:52
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not quite a week removed, but game week were gone one game removed from the SC organ game.
2:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you ready to to regroup and move forward?
2:04
[SPEAKER_02]: I am beyond ready to move forward, I would very like every narrative from the organ game to just no longer be in front of me every time I log into Twitter.
2:21
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the the best thing for USC right now is just to have something else to talk about because, um,
2:29
[SPEAKER_02]: the chatteries chattering a lot of people are embarrassing themselves and unfortunately when people in the u.s.s.
2:36
[SPEAKER_01]: fear embarrassed themselves they embarrassed me so yeah yeah there's there's a lot of stuff out there it's time it's time to move on
2:47
[SPEAKER_01]: The only way for us to turn things around, narrative-wise, perception-wise, all of that is to get back out there and get a win under their belt.
2:58
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll get Washington on Saturday before we get into that.
3:01
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you call it?
3:03
[SPEAKER_01]: The entry report is out.
3:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go over this before we get into the match up.
3:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Outs for the Trojan's Corey Sims, Candarius, Riddick, and Kilian O'Connor, who we know has a season and an injury.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: That's it.
3:20
[SPEAKER_01]: But there is a...
3:23
[SPEAKER_01]: metric ton of questionable dudes.
3:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Jekim Stewart again, listed this questionable.
3:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Trent, mostly now listed in questionable, promoted from doubtful a week ago, doubtful an out a week ago, last week against the ducks, Alex Graham questionable, Mark Bowman questionable, table Johnson questionable, Hayden Treader questionable, Alex VanSumerin questionable,
3:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that the biggest positive of this thing that been super in his only questionable?
3:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like it might be.
3:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Based on that injury, I would have guessed that it was certainly possible that he was done for the season.
4:04
[SPEAKER_02]: So he was still being on the intro report at all.
4:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll take it, am I am I am I am I constantly questionable about what questionable actually means because we all knew that Trent mostly wasn't playing even though he was questionable last week.
4:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So you know it's it's I'm not sure that I I look at this as a well Alex ran somewhere in my play this week kind of questionable but I at least I think it's a positive
4:32
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not out for the season, hopefully, a questionable, which is better than I would have expected.
4:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's a positive, I mean, the big negative here is Mark Bowman.
4:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
4:46
[SPEAKER_02]: We know that there was an injury.
4:47
[SPEAKER_02]: We he seemed fine in the game.
4:50
[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't I don't think I noticed and I don't remember anyone else noticing if he went out of the game at any point.
4:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know what to make of that.
5:00
[SPEAKER_01]: You hope that he's able to go.
5:02
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that SC has gotten Tucker Ashcraft back.
5:05
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that Carson Pepperachi has got a sort of a lot of playing time.
5:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in part for Ashcraft being out at the beginning of the season, but
5:15
[SPEAKER_01]: He was getting run in the fourth quarter last week too.
5:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So at least there's a little bit more depth there than before.
5:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's one of the dudes that you look forward to when you're, it's sort of the big four freshmen, right?
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Mostly Bowman, Weifel, and Caden Dixon Wyatt.
5:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that you want all those guys out there if you, if you can get them out there and two of them being questionable.
5:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and again, like I will continue to be very suspicious of anyone ending up on the on the under a report questionable.
5:55
[SPEAKER_02]: is just a questionable status.
5:59
[SPEAKER_02]: So, and not to overlook Hayden Treader here either, because that's a starting offensive lineman for USC.
6:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And the one good thing there is that I have a lot of faith in Kaylon Miller.
6:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Kaylon Miller, I think we've decided it's, I mean, you guys has Kaylon Miller.
6:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, just Kaylon Miller.
6:15
[SPEAKER_02]: So the media got to let us astray last year is what I'm hearing.
6:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I trained my brain to say kaleon and now we're back to kaleon.
6:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's lovely.
6:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like that's not the first time this has happened.
6:28
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, kaleon Miller is available and that's in that's good, but every offensive line injury strains USE's depth there and hopefully it's not something too serious, but it's still another offensive line injury.
6:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and the other big thing is Jessica F. 96, questionable in the chat.
6:50
[SPEAKER_01]: He's written questionable.
6:52
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a good philosophical question.
6:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Like aren't we all questionable?
6:55
[SPEAKER_02]: This is true Saturday.
6:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, this is true.
6:59
[SPEAKER_01]: The Huskies have a couple of big names out.
7:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Like all the running backs, not literally all of them, but Jordan Washington, Jayden, Lamar, and Squade Car, Quade Car, love that name.
7:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I got him in the Trans-Reportle in almost 127 at one point.
7:16
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a pretty good back in the game.
7:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he started the season.
7:19
[SPEAKER_02]: They're number one, Jaden Lamar was their number two, and Jordan Washington was a huge, was a big breakout guy for them as a freshman last year, all dealing with an injury with injuries.
7:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, that's, it's just rough.
7:37
[SPEAKER_02]: They're running, we'll talk more about they're running by Grimm and a bit, but they're running game in general.
7:42
[SPEAKER_02]: His really suffered and it's, you know, no small part having this many guys injured.
7:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's it's been difficult for them to put that all together, but let's get it in the matchup.
7:53
[SPEAKER_01]: SC in Washington, locking horns for 30 PM on NBC.
7:58
[SPEAKER_01]: The Husky's three in one, Owen one in conference, the Trojans, of course, four in one.
8:04
[SPEAKER_01]: and one in one in conference.
8:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Jed Fish is the man up in Seattle, his third year, he's 18 and 12.
8:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Last two times these, the last time these teams played was 2024.
8:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Jed, Jed fish is first year.
8:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The first year after Washington was removed from their national title, run in which they went to the national title game, lost against Michigan in the 2023 season with Michael Penex at quarterback.
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: 2621 was that game Miller Masters 3 picks U and I sat in the rain in a brutal brutal condition at Husky Stadium.
8:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But there we are.
8:45
[SPEAKER_01]: We're we're just removed and a lot has changed.
8:48
[SPEAKER_02]: The only positive from that game aside from just being with what he marks the friends and family and the like was they had really good sight or at the stadium.
8:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah.
8:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And we were with our really good friends, which we love.
9:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And my dad went, so it was great.
9:02
[SPEAKER_02]: This is not a consideration for this game, but there will be considerations for future weather games for people that are going.
9:10
[SPEAKER_02]: This was the game that I nailed, absolutely nailed my attire.
9:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I wore the right shoes.
9:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I wore rain boots and they were warm and they were great.
9:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I wore nice thick socks.
9:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I wore waterproof pants.
9:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I wore a good outer layer waterproof thing.
9:31
[SPEAKER_02]: All of the hiking investments that I've made for like waterproof stuff came in handy.
9:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Just a career highlight for me as a viewer of life sports.
9:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
9:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you want the bad news.
9:45
[SPEAKER_01]: What is going to rain 90 9 degrees.
9:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I just put in the USC zip code 989 99 degrees according to the good old never wrong.
9:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, I over for you.
10:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the typical late September, early October, wait, I thought summer was over and then suddenly there's a heat wave heat wave is sitting.
10:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm in danger.
10:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
10:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Good luck to everybody who goes to the game.
10:17
[SPEAKER_02]: I cannot wait for more attendance talk.
10:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, to Manila, that's too many degrees.
10:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Way too many of them, way too many.
10:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to give some of those degrees away.
10:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
10:28
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's get into the game, of course.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington started the season, ranked in the preseason politics, were they 17th or something like that?
10:40
[SPEAKER_01]: and then proceeded to tumble out of it, despite winning their first three games.
10:45
[SPEAKER_01]: They lost last week to Minnesota, upset loss to the Golden Gofers, which in hindsight, should that be considered an upset?
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they were nine and a half point favorites and in turn, S C is a nine and a half point of favorite over them this week, but it's been a shaky start for them.
11:03
[SPEAKER_01]: They had narrow ends over Washington State in the Apple Cup.
11:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Utah State, they squeaked out of their barely.
11:11
[SPEAKER_01]: They did absolutely jiggle back Eastern Washington from the FCS, and you gotta get them credit for that.
11:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But, actually, they've been a struggle, and I don't quite know why.
11:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I, yes, they've had injuries in the running back room, but I think that they were like sort of a darling
11:34
[SPEAKER_01]: outside dark horse pick to make the play off.
11:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think a lot of that had to do with they've got a good defense, which has been the case so far this season.
11:43
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll talk a little bit more about that and whether or not it's real, but they have a good defense that's playing well.
11:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And with them on Williams coming back that the offseason drama was, you know, hard to ignore.
11:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So that could be playing a role.
11:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the, the, the offense has just been extremely disappointing and a lot of it has to do with with stuff working to discuss about.
12:06
[SPEAKER_02]: the run game and one dimensionality in a quarterback that I think is is good, but maybe not good enough to elevate a team that has other serious deficiencies on their offense.
12:18
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, there's always a lot of factors, but the vibes, the vibes in Seattle right now are pretty damn low.
12:28
[SPEAKER_02]: to the point where, you know, there's like commiseration from USC and Washington fans on social media about like who's more miserable this week.
12:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Oregon fans are having a field day.
12:41
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what I'll tell you.
12:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and this is, this is one of those, it's been a month where everyone, but you see a lot of the big 10 new big 10 teams from the Pac 12, and had some part of the month be shaky, Oregon, of course, the Lost Oklahoma State, SC, of course, the Lost Oregon, and Washington has been shaking the whole time, but
13:04
[SPEAKER_01]: They at least won the first three games.
13:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It sort of bottoms out last week.
13:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about the offense.
13:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned among Williams.
13:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Pastor, any of 151.1, that feels not too bad at all.
13:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Seven touchdowns, three picks, 69% completion percentage, 282 yards per game on the ground.
13:26
[SPEAKER_01]: He's the leading russia.
13:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think you want your quarterback to be the leading russia
13:36
[SPEAKER_02]: on the ground and you're on it.
13:37
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not enough to be the leading Russia.
13:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Your offense is also not heavy in quarterback design quarterback runs.
13:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So almost all of that is scrambling.
13:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, four running max are injured as we mentioned, including joining Jordan Washington who had 233 yards.
13:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a freshman last year.
13:56
[SPEAKER_01]: We mentioned quade car.
13:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Jaden Lamar.
14:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Freshman Brian Bonner is now the main man 81 of his 118 in 20, sorry, anyone who is 126 fresh in yards on the season or against FCS Eastern Washington when you look at the numbers so much
14:16
[SPEAKER_01]: of the numbers are sort of buoyed by their game against Easter Washington.
14:22
[SPEAKER_01]: We're I'm going to get into this when we talk about like the over under a little bit later.
14:26
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's a stat that like you take Easter, they're using watching game in and out of that.
14:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And it drastically changes as well.
14:34
[SPEAKER_01]: But things were dire against Minnesota last week.
14:36
[SPEAKER_01]: They managed 40 yards on the ground on 27 carries.
14:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Coming after with 16 coming after contact.
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So Rough rough go they did give up a billion sacks in that game and Demon Williams is someone to keep an eye on with with this legs, but he's been sort of running for his life and they haven't been able to run successfully 7 sacks last week for 45 yards to convince Minnesota
15:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry seven seven scrambles for 40.
15:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry.
15:13
[SPEAKER_02]: He had he took seven sacks.
15:16
[SPEAKER_02]: He scrambled seven times for 45 yards to many.
15:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So the net total for his yards was 15.
15:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it's a pretty brutal game.
15:27
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, I think one of the big issues here is that it's not, you know, when you're quarterback at sacks seven times, you can expect your run numbers to look pretty damn terrible.
15:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:36
[SPEAKER_02]: But his.
15:37
[SPEAKER_01]: You take that out.
15:38
[SPEAKER_01]: There's so much.
15:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he's scrambling numbers are what got erased by the seven sacks.
15:43
[SPEAKER_02]: The running backs were not productive at all.
15:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And the backup running back tray, Kooley had four carries for five yards and fumbled twice.
15:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:53
[SPEAKER_02]: He just, you know, they were both recovered by Washington, but it's pretty disastrous for the run game.
15:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
15:59
[SPEAKER_01]: The Mont Williams so far this year's face 62 pressures.
16:03
[SPEAKER_01]: to put that into perspective, literally twice the amount as Jade and my avon, Jade and my avon has played an extra game.
16:11
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... rough absolutely rough uh... time to throw uh... for for Williams is 3.01 seconds uh... the average time of throws 2.7 my reading that right my office average is 2.7 see okay demand Williams is 3.01 so this might be a demand Williams problem where he might be taking sacks and creating pressures because he's not getting the ball up particularly quickly
16:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
16:39
[SPEAKER_01]: See, this is the problem when you're reading a rundown while your team is getting absolutely jiggle bagged.
16:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
16:46
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they're not getting jiggle bagged, but they're not not getting jiggle bagged.
16:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a three run game that feels like a 21 point game run.
16:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
16:57
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, the efficiency for Washington's offense, just atrocious, 109th and 3rd down conversions, demand Washington complained just 50% of his past is with only eight conversions resulting from 28 attempts on 3rd down.
17:11
[SPEAKER_01]: They're 101st and available yards.
17:14
[SPEAKER_01]: This was an offense, I think people expected to be a top 10 offense in the country.
17:19
[SPEAKER_01]: 111st in available yards, 81st in drive success rate, they manage a first down on just 66.7% of drives.
17:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So it means a third of their drives, they do not get a first down.
17:30
[SPEAKER_01]: That's 94th in the country.
17:33
[SPEAKER_01]: This in so many ways, this is...
17:36
[SPEAKER_01]: movable object against it, movable force when you look at USC's defense, which of course got gashed two weeks ago against Rutgers.
17:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Last week, they give up 500 yards to Oregon.
17:51
[SPEAKER_01]: They did get some stops in the first half, but we're terrible in the third quarter, which really allowed Oregon to take super control of the gate.
18:03
[SPEAKER_01]: That was Oregon.
18:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It's more understandable against Oregon that it was against Rutgers.
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And here comes a Washington team, limping into this game, offensively, not too dissimilar than Rutgers was limping into the game two weeks ago.
18:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So on the one hand, it'd be, you could sit here and say, this is just what the doctor ordered for U.S.E.
18:25
[SPEAKER_01]: defense.
18:26
[SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, this is exactly what we said about Rutgers two weeks ago.
18:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So is S.C. what ordered what the doctor ordered for Washington is washing and what the doctor ordered for S.C. That is the ultimate question here and one that we're going to get answered on Saturday because one of these things has to give either USC's defense is going to lock down an offense that has been just not good against anyone they've played except if they weren't an FCS team or
19:00
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, U.S. defense is going to get exposed again.
19:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And unfortunately, both of those outcomes are very believable.
19:09
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think this is an intriguing matchup that the fact that U.S. is at home should make a pretty big difference here.
19:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I just wish I was more confident in that particular.
19:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the hope is that this goes like the Michigan game from a year ago, where S.C. wins that game.
19:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It was at 31, 13, something like that.
19:42
[SPEAKER_01]: In a lot of ways, the numbers bear that out to be the case.
19:47
[SPEAKER_01]: If S.C. defense can rebound and make Washington's offense look as struggle busy if they've been as they've been through the first month of the season.
19:56
[SPEAKER_01]: But if the defense is what it was against Rutgers, then this looks like another Rutgers game where does SC need to outscore the defensive struggles?
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't know, it could go either way.
20:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you said, I think you, you hope.
20:12
[SPEAKER_01]: that the SEC defense comes to play.
20:15
[SPEAKER_01]: This should be a game in which that is a resounding blow to Washington's chances to win the game.
20:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But if they don't, that's a big boost the other way.
20:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about the Washington defense going up against the U.S.
20:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The offense.
20:28
[SPEAKER_01]: U.S.
20:28
[SPEAKER_01]: The offense number one in the country in FBI.
20:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We know how good they are.
20:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that they're led by freshman at receiver.
20:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Jade Mayava looking the best that he has in his career so far.
20:41
[SPEAKER_01]: The run game finally showed glimpses of glory a week ago.
20:47
[SPEAKER_01]: King Miller didn't have his biggest rushing out in against Oregon, but like I would argue, his most impressive, 5.69 yards per carry last week against Oregon, a team in which held them to, like, under two yards per carry a year ago in Eugene.
21:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So big development for the run game last week, we know that the past game is there.
21:09
[SPEAKER_01]: all of those things there.
21:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think we need to question the U.S. the offense at all.
21:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington's defense.
21:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty good.
21:18
[SPEAKER_01]: They force a ton of turnovers.
21:21
[SPEAKER_01]: They force a lot of interceptions.
21:23
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be something that you need to keep an eye on.
21:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Jade Mayava, we know prone to a mistake or two, even though he's really limited those of late.
21:31
[SPEAKER_01]: The one intercepting Thursday in Oregon,
21:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Not exactly a Hail Mary, but not not a Hail Mary in the last minute of the game thrown to the end zone.
21:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So
21:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Can he keep the non game breaking mistake thing alive that he's done the last two weeks?
21:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Then that would be huge for him because there's been two games and what's the offense is had to be perfect in order to win the game.
21:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And they were pretty much perfect and a lot of senses comparatively against Rutgers.
22:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Last week, they were more efficient on a per drive basis but they still, you know,
22:12
[SPEAKER_01]: didn't score in the last two drives and they scored in the last two drives it's a typo.
22:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington's defense led by Jacob Mono linebacker 24 tackles three tackles for loss couple of sacks.
22:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Alex McLaughlin, it's safety a guy to keep an eye on 25 tackles for tackles for loss.
22:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Two picks, three PBUs, force fumble, two sacks.
22:41
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been all over the place.
22:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Look for him to be sort of the danger man on defense and get after it.
22:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Isaiah Ward,
22:53
[SPEAKER_01]: the Washington defense though has not faced a good offense yet and so
22:58
[SPEAKER_01]: The dilemma for them is how good are they?
23:01
[SPEAKER_01]: The numbers are quite good.
23:03
[SPEAKER_01]: They're top 30 in possession of efficiency, points per game available, yard drives, success rate, touchdown, and first downrate in so many ways.
23:11
[SPEAKER_01]: They are the inverse of what you had expected from a year ago, considering that this was a team that had a really good offense coming into it.
23:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, S.E.S.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Good Minnesota's offense, rank 71st,
23:27
[SPEAKER_01]: had there was the best offense that Minnesota has played.
23:30
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a big disparity in the gap of talent that Washington has faced offensively to really know how good this defense is.
23:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and like you said, USC is by far the best defense that they will face that they have faced and probably will be the best offense that they have faced this season that they will face this season
23:57
[SPEAKER_02]: The real problem for Washington's defense, I think, which seems to like, I'm not going to discount what they've done so far, just because they haven't played a good offense.
24:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I think that they have some pieces there that are really nice.
24:09
[SPEAKER_02]: The problem for them is that if they, if they, if they can't hold their opponent to under 20 points, then they're kind of screwed.
24:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And we saw that against Minnesota.
24:20
[SPEAKER_02]: They gave up three first half touchdowns to Drake
24:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And that was that they fell behind and while the, while the, while the offense had a pretty valiant fourth quarter performance with them on them and Williams leading the charge, they, they just couldn't get back into it.
24:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is, you know, we're, there's an overunder about, let's relate it to Lincoln Riley's pension for taking the ball if he wins the toss.
24:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And, um,
24:52
[SPEAKER_02]: as much as I think that no coach should take the ball if they win the good toss.
24:56
[SPEAKER_02]: You're always taken in the second half.
24:59
[SPEAKER_02]: If there was ever a game to argue for getting the ball first, it might be this one because this Washington team cannot play from behind.
25:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, it's, it's, I feel, I feel for their defense because like U.S. these offense, they have to be perfect in order to, to give their team a chance.
25:20
[SPEAKER_02]: And when they're not perfect, you know, they, they end up losing at home to Minnesota.
25:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, even that Utah State game, they hold Utah State's offense couldn't do direct crap.
25:32
[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, the fact that Washington couldn't score more than 17 points against New Utah State is a pretty big indictment.
25:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's tough.
25:43
[SPEAKER_02]: This is a team that seems to have an identity and know what they're about defensively will that be enough for them against a USC offense
25:54
[SPEAKER_02]: is just pretty damn good across the board.
25:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe the injuries are their potential in here.
26:02
[SPEAKER_02]: If Mark Bowman is out, if Tremosley still can't play, if Hayden Treader is out, you know, USC has relied on the wide receivers, but Corey Sims is still out.
26:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Can't really afford too many more wide receiver injuries or just other stuff that could come up.
26:18
[SPEAKER_02]: So USC's offense is maybe not in their best shape.
26:23
[SPEAKER_02]: to go against a Washington defense that theoretically could give him a little bit of trouble, but it's, you know, it's going to be difficult for them on this side of the ball.
26:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we will have to see, we'll have to see if Washington can of course unlock their offense, and if SC can unlock their defense, that the big battle in this game.
26:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But of course, you can go over to my bookie and lock up the cowboys.
26:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So we said this week, there's a lock of the week.
26:58
[SPEAKER_01]: on the cowboys and the Texans, you know, a lot of Texas connections on this U.S.E.
27:04
[SPEAKER_01]: roster, so maybe you have Texas connections in that sense, a lot of the season, plus 100 for the cowboys against the Texans, all that needs to happen is that completes a pass against the Texans could be wrapped up on like the very first play they get, you know, you never know, and so like you, at least you don't like
27:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, go in to my book and looking at what your chargers can do.
27:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, here you go.
27:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, if he was if the DAC was playing the chargers, I'd be even.
27:38
[SPEAKER_01]: moron you'd be even more smitten but you of course can get out your phone set up for my book with promo code ROT that's rot ROT set up and get your season cooking with the win bet on anything anytime anywhere must be 21 plus 18 plus in select jurisdictions terms and conditions apply gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visits 1 800 gambler.net for free confidential
28:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Alicia, it is time for us here on this episode to get into the over under.
28:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you're going over.
28:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're bold, giving that over.
28:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going.
28:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I've got to take it under here.
28:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I've got three under to take.
28:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to do an under here.
28:21
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
28:21
[SPEAKER_01]: We're putting the link in the chat if you're watching this live on YouTube, be sure to go make your picks.
28:27
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're listening to us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast, be sure to check the show notes and get your picks in.
28:35
[SPEAKER_01]: At least, we start with you.
28:37
[SPEAKER_01]: What is your first over under for the game?
28:41
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be 132.12.
28:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And that is demand Williams passer rating.
28:46
[SPEAKER_02]: USC defense is allowing an average passer rating of 149.39.
28:53
[SPEAKER_02]: That is 113th nationally, which is not great.
28:58
[SPEAKER_02]: The lowest they've held a quarterback to 76.46.
29:02
[SPEAKER_02]: That was frozen state when they were basically.
29:06
[SPEAKER_02]: giving Jayden Mandel a hell of a time with the past rush and the the season high that they have given up is 183.84 to Oregon that's between Dante more in Dylan Riala, but the fact that it includes Dylan Riala is obviously a huge problem in a game where USC didn't have any sex.
29:28
[SPEAKER_02]: So, um,
29:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the Demon Williams has an average of 132.12, which is what the line is against FBS opponents, because I take out Eastern Washington, because that doesn't count.
29:45
[SPEAKER_02]: His season low is 114.43 against Utah State.
29:49
[SPEAKER_02]: His season high is 145.27 versus Minnesota.
29:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So is he above or below his average?
29:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going over.
30:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going over strictly because SC is not shown to consistently force turnovers and they need to I think intercept him to keep him under the 132.
30:12
[SPEAKER_01]: If they do, I think the 132 looks really good to get the over, but if not, then it feels like an over.
30:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm with you with my over it's just it's just hard to put faith in the U.S.
30:29
[SPEAKER_02]: He defense right now, um, after one after sort of the opening games where there were fundamental abilities, I was willing to give them some time, but in the two big 10 games that they have played, they have not looked good.
30:43
[SPEAKER_02]: So,
30:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's absolutely been an issue for SE's past defense.
30:51
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if that changes of course against Washington.
30:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the next one, next over under, which is for me, 399 and a half, Washington total yards.
31:04
[SPEAKER_01]: They're averaging 345 against FBS opponents.
31:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, against FBS opponents.
31:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You take that away, it goes up like 50 yards because they had 546 in their game against Eastern Washington, just doing a lot for their averages among all big 10 teams against FBS opponents.
31:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So we've taken the FCS games completely out of it.
31:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They're 16th in the big 10.
31:33
[SPEAKER_01]: They're behind.
31:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, teams that we all know to struggle offensively, they're behind all of those.
31:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And I never would have thought that would have been possible with Jed Fisher at the helm in the Mont Williams, running the offense and all that.
31:53
[SPEAKER_01]: But of course, they ranked 101st in available yards.
31:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Meanwhile, US is defense.
31:58
[SPEAKER_01]: two weeks for move from giving up 460 to Rutgers.
32:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So the line is 399.5 will Washington get to 400 yards is the question.
32:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry, there's something in the shot.
32:17
[SPEAKER_02]: I am going to take the over on this one too.
32:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't do, uh, because again, I don't trust you to see, uh, you as he could win this game and even not do terribly defensively in terms of the points they give up and still give up a whole lot of yards, um, I just, I, I don't trust this defense, um,
32:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm I wish I felt more comfortable.
32:50
[SPEAKER_02]: The only thing I feel decent about is that USC against the run has been improved.
32:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think Washington's run issues are probably going to stay that way and it's not going to be one of those games where a team that can't run the ball comes in and runs the ball on USC but a team with a scrambling quarterback.
33:08
[SPEAKER_02]: against this defensive front that can't seem to finish plays and the secondary that seems to just leave guys wide open all the time.
33:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I got to take that over.
33:23
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
33:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I going to go bold.
33:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Under.
33:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Going under.
33:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Why?
33:33
[SPEAKER_01]: strictly because Washington struggle to do it and they've they they're going on the road, uh, you know, SEC's place better on, uh, at home and Jesus.
33:47
[SPEAKER_01]: double play, of course.
33:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I should play better on the road.
33:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, I see place better home, so I'm taking the over.
33:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't necessarily, sorry, the under.
33:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't feel confident about it.
33:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington, I think very easily could get over 400 yards on offense.
34:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say this.
34:04
[SPEAKER_01]: This might be the canary and the coal mines that for me.
34:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, you hold Washington under 400 yards.
34:10
[SPEAKER_01]: They win the game.
34:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Easy.
34:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
34:14
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the question for me.
34:17
[SPEAKER_01]: you don't do that and you make it significantly harder on yourself.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So do it, go out and do it, do out and show the defense can bounce back.
34:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would go a long way to, you know, instilling any sort of confidence in the Trojan's ahead of the pens they gave next week.
34:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the next one.
34:39
[SPEAKER_02]: What do you got?
34:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got 16.5 and that is USC pressures
34:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Demon Williams or whoever the Washington quarterback is I'm going pressures because this is something that we can track on PFF and I am confident that it will end up on we will have that number before the fallout episode.
35:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And I just sacks are just, at this point, not fun to sort of figure out because you what scene just doesn't get sacks.
35:12
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't have to get sacks in order to have an effective time against a quarterback though.
35:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that is the thing that I'm looking for more than more than sack production, even though it is alarming that I think neither GDA have a
35:31
[SPEAKER_02]: look way full have a sack yet the season although that's she did this does he yeah oh um I must have been looking at the wrong thing um either way the USC's lack of sack production has been concerning um
35:46
[SPEAKER_02]: But the pressures are not terrible.
35:48
[SPEAKER_02]: They're, they're not as good as they should be.
35:50
[SPEAKER_02]: They have 69 total pressures this season 13.28 per game.
35:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Their season high was 18 against Fresno State.
35:57
[SPEAKER_02]: No surprise that that is the game that the defense played the best in.
36:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Season low was 11, both of those in the last two games, Oregon and Rutgers.
36:04
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, the thing we talked about in the past about this defense of front against Big 10.
36:12
[SPEAKER_02]: offensive lines.
36:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, I need to see more from USC's defense front.
36:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Washington, meanwhile, allowed 20 against Minnesota.
36:23
[SPEAKER_02]: They have not allowed less than 12 this season.
36:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And this is just going to be such a critical stat because Damon Williams under pressure versus kept clean is as with most quarterbacks, a massive difference kept clean.
36:38
[SPEAKER_02]: He completes 77.8% of his passes 8.8 yards per attempt three touchdowns zero underceptions went under pressure.
36:45
[SPEAKER_02]: He completes 46.2% of his passes six point five yards per attempt four touchdowns with three interceptions.
36:52
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
36:54
[SPEAKER_02]: In the end, if you want this to not be a nervous game, making demand Williams uncomfortable is a piece number one, and I think the thing that they did, that I think the thing that harmed them the most in games against Rutgers and Oregon was simply neither of those quarterbacks were made uncomfortable.
37:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think those are two guys who, if you would have made long run and, right, oh, I think those are two guys that if you make them uncomfortable, they have shown in their career that they will be prone to making a mistake if you make them uncomfortable.
37:30
[SPEAKER_01]: You just, you can't let them just sit back there.
37:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And in Oregon's case, you can't let them avoid the blitz when you do blitz with those little,
37:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Think slipscreens and everything that they had in the third quarter.
37:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking the under.
37:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the line is way too high.
37:48
[SPEAKER_01]: You said this line way too high.
37:50
[SPEAKER_01]: 16 and a half is too much.
37:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so.
37:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
37:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so.
37:57
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a easy under for me.
38:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I too, I'm taking the under.
38:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
38:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's again, it just goes back to I don't trust this this defense right now.
38:13
[SPEAKER_02]: The one thing that gives me pause and makes me tempted to take the over is the decaying sewer.
38:18
[SPEAKER_02]: We expect him to play in this game and the way.
38:22
[SPEAKER_02]: And he is questionable, which is like.
38:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that's could just make him nervous here, guys.
38:28
[SPEAKER_02]: They did, they did play him a lot.
38:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think they intended to play him as much as they played him against Oregon, but Bansumerin's entry probably forced that issue a little bit.
38:34
[SPEAKER_02]: So, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if
38:44
[SPEAKER_02]: stand out individual ability to just beat a man and get after the quarterback, which could be the difference in terms of pressures, but I still
38:56
[SPEAKER_02]: still don't like it.
38:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And the more I think I was looking at Washington under the hood for Washington's numbers and it's like blitzing or not blitzing doesn't seem to make much of a difference.
39:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Demon Williams, that's not the thing that is the big issue there.
39:17
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just past Brown general.
39:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
39:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's definitely ununder for me.
39:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to the next one.
39:26
[SPEAKER_01]: 99.5 King Miller rushing yards yet 128 against Louisiana a few weeks ago 102 against Rutgers last week only 74 but we talked about it a few minutes ago
39:42
[SPEAKER_01]: probably his best game of the season averaging 5.69 yards per carry.
39:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think he looked really good.
39:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought he looked really good for long stretchers in that game.
39:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And so if he plays the way he did against Oregon, he will have over 100 yards against Washington.
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that goes without saying that that said, Washington Trust Defense has been pretty damn good.
40:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Last week, Minnesota's
40:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Yikes, 1.9 yards per carry for the go for running back.
40:17
[SPEAKER_01]: TJ Thomas led the gofers with 78 yards.
40:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You're like, okay, that's that terrible.
40:24
[SPEAKER_01]: 45 of them came on one run.
40:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You can bind both of them.
40:28
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like 2.3 yards per carry combined with the exception of the 45 yard run.
40:35
[SPEAKER_01]: rough.
40:36
[SPEAKER_01]: But Washington has not played an offense like USC.
40:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So 99 and a half King Miller, Russian nerds.
40:45
[SPEAKER_02]: So I went to check Washington's long rushing plays allowed.
40:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And they are 15th in the big 10 with 16 10 plus yard plays allowed.
40:58
[SPEAKER_02]: But only three of those were
41:01
[SPEAKER_02]: They're giving up 10, they're they're basically doing exactly what you see sequences doing by the way, which is 15 10 plus yards, which they're right ahead of Washington.
41:12
[SPEAKER_02]: And then only five 20 plus which no sorry five is bad never mind.
41:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, either way.
41:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that he gets this if he breaks a big run.
41:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And we just haven't seen U.S. seem break the big runs the way that they were in terms of just like breaking away.
41:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that with King, he clearly put on weight in the off season.
41:40
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that weight has been detrimental to his broader rushing attack.
41:45
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel still think he looks smooth.
41:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I still think
41:50
[SPEAKER_02]: But it may be that little difference between home run and just like 30 yard run or you know 20 yard run 15 yard run all the like.
42:02
[SPEAKER_02]: So I'm taking the under here and that is just because I think that King Miller can have a good running day and not hit a hundred yards.
42:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Sure, just like he did against Oregon, we still will see a rotation with women Jordan will see Riley warmly involved in that as well and I am.
42:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I wish I were more confident to say that he'll have that like 35 year run that just like that he didn't have against Oregon that would push him over the top.
42:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that all makes sense.
42:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that all makes sense.
42:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still thick in the open.
42:38
[SPEAKER_01]: To me, I think this feels like a more of a grindy game than anything else.
42:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Organs, I mean, sorry, watching has played grindy game so far against Utah State, against Wazoo, against Minnesota.
42:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that means more runs.
42:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And more runs mean some more opportunity for King Miller and put them over 100 yards.
43:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm gonna take the over.
43:03
[SPEAKER_01]: What's your last over under?
43:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Where do you go?
43:07
[SPEAKER_02]: 8.5 Washington points in the middle eight.
43:12
[SPEAKER_02]: So we talk about Riley's decision to take the ball first on offense to start the game.
43:21
[SPEAKER_02]: This is something that he does.
43:23
[SPEAKER_02]: This is just his philosophy.
43:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And his, his explainer for that would be teams that score first statistically when more like more often.
43:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Can I give my rebuttal to how ridiculous that is?
43:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, please.
43:43
[SPEAKER_01]: uh it like it just doesn't apply and because the team who scores first more often like statistically is the team that wins the game because that's probably more likely the better team like all these other things all the other factors.
43:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I think what you need to see is games that are decided by one possession is it the team that scores first?
44:05
[SPEAKER_01]: like that's what matters.
44:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, to me, it's like because it's not how you start.
44:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's how you finish.
44:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
44:12
[SPEAKER_02]: That first test.
44:14
[SPEAKER_02]: We we have seen far too many.
44:16
[SPEAKER_02]: I think back to the stark era like his first down script.
44:19
[SPEAKER_02]: We talked about this all the time.
44:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Like his first, his first drive scripts were just immaculate.
44:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And you was he would always score on the opening drive and it would be like this off
44:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
44:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, well, whatever.
44:33
[SPEAKER_02]: It is so much more valuable in my view to begin the second half, to be the first team that scores in the second half.
44:41
[SPEAKER_02]: What is that statistical look like?
44:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
44:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
44:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, I want it in one possession games.
44:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
44:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's when it matters more than anything.
44:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, exactly.
44:52
[SPEAKER_02]: So against Oregon, this became a big talking point, because the problem with taking the ball first is that you let the opposing team get the ball after half time.
45:01
[SPEAKER_02]: And if they're getting the ball after half time, then that means that they can steal a possession by scoring on their last possession in at the end of the second half, at the end of the second quarter, and then getting the ball back.
45:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Which is exactly what happened.
45:19
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a turtle.
45:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, and it's what allowed what Oregon got 10 points.
45:23
[SPEAKER_02]: We had 10 points in the in the little third in the middle four in the middle eight and that's and that is what put USC behind the April that is what had USC trying to play catch up for the rest of the game
45:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And it just philosophically, I just couldn't disagree more with Riley's approach.
45:44
[SPEAKER_02]: But I expect if USC does win the toss for them to take the ball first and then we will be on middle late watch, which is why I put this it.
45:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I put it in 8.5 because this is you are scoring on two positions.
46:01
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not just one.
46:03
[SPEAKER_02]: No two point conversion question marks or anything like that.
46:06
[SPEAKER_02]: You've scored on two positions in the middle late.
46:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Can I ask one question?
46:12
[SPEAKER_02]: We might need to define exactly.
46:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this a true middle eight thing?
46:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Are we talking about the last four minutes in the first
46:25
[SPEAKER_02]: So we can either, we can do it one way or the other.
46:26
[SPEAKER_02]: We can do last four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half, or we can do Washington's last possession of the first half and first possession of the second half.
46:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the easiest way to do it is the minutes, but the true middle eight.
46:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let's do middle eight.
46:45
[SPEAKER_01]: The problem there is you can still win the middle eight
46:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if you don't, in the literal sense, based on the minutes, like, if you score with if Washington scores with three minutes to go, but then you score right before the half.
47:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
47:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know,
47:12
[SPEAKER_01]: There's ways about it, right?
47:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm taking so we're just for clarification.
47:17
[SPEAKER_02]: We're doing minutes, if the last four minutes and the first four minutes.
47:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, to be to be clearer though, I would go last four minutes and the first Washington drive.
47:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
47:30
[SPEAKER_01]: If that's a six-minute drive, I think that's just still count.
47:33
[SPEAKER_01]: You see what I'm saying?
47:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
47:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
47:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So last four minutes of the second quarter and the first Washington's first tribe of the second of the second half.
47:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Correct.
47:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
47:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going under Washington's struggle to score points.
47:50
[SPEAKER_01]: There's struggle on offense.
47:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that seven totally reasonable there.
47:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I
48:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I'm naive.
48:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
48:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm I'm going under because I think Estee can hold in the seven in that period.
48:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I got a highlight, PR, Jackie in the chat.
48:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm okay taking the ball first if this is the 2008 USC defense heck.
48:13
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm winning the toss and kicking it both halves with that defense.
48:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Which by the way, didn't USC do that once before they changed the like wording of of how the the coin toss is educated.
48:25
[SPEAKER_01]: No, that that was timeouts.
48:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Was it time out?
48:28
[SPEAKER_01]: That was time out.
48:29
[SPEAKER_02]: But I want to say it was it a, I thought you're talking about, I thought it was like during the Kiffin era where somebody said, where USC deferred, USC won, the other team won the toss and gave USC the chance.
48:46
[SPEAKER_02]: To start the game and USC deferred that chance and then the second half.
48:50
[SPEAKER_01]: It was the other team's decision Like there was there was it was a semantics thing.
48:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, I was at an SC game.
48:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It might have been I know I want to say that there was a UCLA ASU game that that happened to Maybe I'm I might be getting things confused, but they now changed.
49:06
[SPEAKER_02]: They've now simplified the question I think but I definitely have a memory of the question being convoluted in the sense of
49:15
[SPEAKER_02]: you you're not deferring the kick right you're deferring the decision.
49:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
49:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And then USC deferred, but didn't realize that it was a deferring the kick off in the first of whatever it was.
49:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
49:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
49:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I, um, I'm taking the enter.
49:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I see can hold them to seven there.
49:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Washington's struggling offense.
49:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I, I, that's the only lean again.
49:43
[SPEAKER_02]: In keeping with pessimistic Alicia, I'm taking the over here.
49:48
[SPEAKER_02]: OK. My best week of overunder was last week when I took all of the pessimistic choices.
49:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So might as well keep this rolling.
49:58
[SPEAKER_02]: All right.
49:58
[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't trust USC's defense.
50:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go to my last overunder, which is overunder, two and a half, two and a half,
50:12
[SPEAKER_01]: for 50 arts in Oregon.
50:14
[SPEAKER_01]: It was his debut.
50:16
[SPEAKER_01]: He looked good.
50:17
[SPEAKER_01]: He looked good.
50:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he in the middle of time that we've seen Terrell Anderson, I think he's looked good.
50:23
[SPEAKER_01]: His kick return that he had against Fresno State I think.
50:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Mm-hmm.
50:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Look good.
50:30
[SPEAKER_02]: he looks like when you say look good i think like that is literally like i took away the way he moves yeah it just looks really good like he looks kind of smooth these big he's you know he's got some some you know
50:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Deceptive speed, I think, he seems to be a good runner, a natural runner, so yeah, I really hope he has more than two catches in this game.
51:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I will be disappointed if USC doesn't utilize him after what he showed against Oregon with those two catches.
51:10
[SPEAKER_02]: get him more involved, get him to get the ball in his hand and see what he can do.
51:16
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, given, I know you don't necessarily need the contested catch situation thing with KDW doing his thing, but you know, give him a chance to make some plays.
51:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I think find a way to get them more.
51:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking the over.
51:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking the over.
51:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm taking the over.
51:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree.
51:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Jesus.
51:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Ian Happ strikes out on 103 mile an hour high heat.
51:42
[SPEAKER_01]: That's Mason Miller.
51:44
[SPEAKER_01]: They have to score three runs against Mason Miller.
51:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Two outs here.
51:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say, if the cops somehow survived this half inning, they're winning the world series.
51:54
[SPEAKER_01]: will say that.
51:57
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, last week we of course talked about over under, and but we didn't in the fallout episode, we got a lot of the whole thing.
52:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Didn't have time because we had so many mailbag voicemails and emails and stuff to get to.
52:13
[SPEAKER_01]: So big shout out to Steven Chaud last week, six and oh,
52:19
[SPEAKER_01]: The only perfect over under player last week, Stephen Chaud, and he has shot up the number one.
52:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one in the rankings.
52:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Number two, one behind is Trevor V. Ty for third, two spots back.
52:36
[SPEAKER_01]: A-A-Ron from Madison, DJ, David Orange County.
52:39
[SPEAKER_01]: A couple spots back when that are brit from Irvine and Trevor M.
52:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And then one spot behind that, you have a five way tie with Jay and you Kaipa L.A. Fred or buddy Steve in the Bay Area, Scotty C and Pickle.
52:52
[SPEAKER_01]: There you go.
52:54
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the top 12.
52:55
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of names in there.
52:56
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of familiar names.
52:57
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of overunder veterans.
53:00
[SPEAKER_01]: First say.
53:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's always a fun battle between between a lot of these familiar names.
53:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And we always love, I mean, if you've never played over under, don't be afraid.
53:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Come, come try it.
53:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's fun.
53:12
[SPEAKER_02]: You know,
53:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely, hit the link in the in the show now and and trust like if if if if you just don't want to be made to look a fool or something like that like You can't be worse than me at this point, so you know the host of this show is being made to look a fool So
53:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Nico Horner, Stanford legend with a double of Mason Miller, hello.
53:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, me, anything.
53:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely won't mean anything.
53:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I've watched the cause of my entire life.
53:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I know I know how the teams are rallying the ninth goes.
53:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
53:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It is absolute, tantric bullshit.
53:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I know how the baseball is played.
53:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Biggest spread, SD by then and a half FII projection, very similar, SD34.6 to 25.2.
53:57
[SPEAKER_01]: What's your score projection?
54:03
[SPEAKER_02]: I like that F.E.I.
54:04
[SPEAKER_02]: projection a lot.
54:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
54:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I toyed with giving USC more points than that.
54:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I thought about Mark Bowman and the wide receiver injuries and offensive line stuff.
54:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, I think we continue to see USC have just those little moments of, maybe not super, not being super sharp all the time, given Washington's defense, some
54:32
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a nod, a little bit of respect to you by going at USC 33 Washington 24.
54:37
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that this will be another, this will be one where I think USC has 33 before Washington has like has 20 and USC just slows down late in the game and Washington just like they did against Minnesota scores like a fourth down touchdown or whatever.
55:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I, I will say this just over and over again.
55:05
[SPEAKER_02]: I just, I, at this point.
55:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Seeing is believing and I gave the, the, the defense a lot of grace early in the season and after two straight games against big 10 opponents.
55:16
[SPEAKER_02]: They are no longer receiving grace for me.
55:18
[SPEAKER_02]: So prove to me that you can hold Washington under 24 points, which seems to be their average.
55:24
[SPEAKER_02]: They seem to just score 20ish points.
55:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Against everyone they play.
55:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
55:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I've been going back and forth.
55:33
[SPEAKER_01]: My first thought was 34, 24.
55:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And I wrote it in there at first.
55:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Then I looked at what your projection that you would written in the rundown was and what the FBI, I'm like, oh, that's too close.
55:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's gonna, I'm just taking that.
55:50
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm gonna bump it up.
55:52
[SPEAKER_01]: 3428.
55:53
[SPEAKER_02]: 3428.
55:54
[SPEAKER_02]: 3428.
55:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
55:56
[SPEAKER_01]: 3428.
55:57
[SPEAKER_01]: SC wins.
55:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to say it right now, if our predictions come to pass, we will not be having a fun time on the car cast.
56:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it depends.
56:10
[SPEAKER_01]: 3428.
56:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a who scored last thing.
56:13
[SPEAKER_01]: 3428 if it's 21 and like you it was never in doubt like I think that S.C. coming off of a of a loss to Oregon like Jesus I I think that is
56:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry, was that was that Breggman?
56:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Is his eyes still bloodshot like that?
56:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and down to the final lap.
56:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry, and we're sorry to interrupt the stuff, but this, this game, I just, his, the bloodshot eye.
56:42
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only like a week away from him getting hit in the face.
56:45
[SPEAKER_02]: I know, but I didn't realize because the, well, I think the, the only times I've seen him, he's been wearing his batting mask and like, I didn't see that, that side of his face.
56:53
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like two-faced situation.
56:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So.
56:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Either what my point is if I should do scores more than 20 points, I just don't think anyone's got to be happy.
57:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but again, I think I think it depends.
57:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if they scored 20, all right, it's it's over Michael's misery is complete.
57:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's over.
57:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The turn the game off.
57:23
[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.
57:25
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, no, I will say, I think if FSC holds them to 24 points and Washington scores in the last minute or something like that, I think that's fine.
57:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you don't want to, you know, give up a million points to a team as this drug
57:52
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... it's coming from the four letters uh... it's getting hiding again guys they hydrated juice box anyone hello out see here's the thing
58:03
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm annoyed because sometimes USC comes up with like campy kind of things that I think are just super silly and fun.
58:13
[SPEAKER_02]: I love silliness.
58:14
[SPEAKER_02]: I think silliness is fun and we should embrace more silliness in general.
58:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think the juice boxes are silly and fun.
58:21
[SPEAKER_02]: But the problem is you only get to be silly and fun if you win.
58:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And so the moment that the juice boxes came out, I was like,
58:29
[SPEAKER_02]: I like this.
58:30
[SPEAKER_02]: These are one me over.
58:31
[SPEAKER_02]: This is silly and fun.
58:32
[SPEAKER_02]: But the moment USC loses, everyone's got a point to the juice boxes is like, you know, this is a sign of the culture and blah, blah, blah, blah.
58:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I'm annoyed.
58:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm annoyed because Loki, I think the juice boxes are, or they tickle me.
58:49
[SPEAKER_01]: In general, I don't have a problem with the juice boxes.
58:53
[SPEAKER_01]: However,
58:55
[SPEAKER_01]: They are crinch, they are crinch, and when you lose, they are crinch, and crinch is not good.
59:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It's absolutely one of those things where if they were winning games, people would find them endearing as hell.
59:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.
59:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't think it's in the same category, like, I don't think that hating the juice box is the same as hating
59:20
[SPEAKER_01]: the turnover sort.
59:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think turning, hating the turnover sort is just like pure like, I like misery.
59:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I love the turnover sort.
59:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Because you know, you had to think like, oh, a program like I see shouldn't have to revert to props and all this stuff and blah, blah, blah.
59:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Like,
59:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Alabama has has had a turnover, you know, wrestling belts for everybody.
59:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody has a turnover something.
59:49
[SPEAKER_01]: One of my juice boxes not a turnover something because it doesn't come out as a celebration of something.
59:56
[SPEAKER_02]: it is kind of pointless on the sidelines.
59:58
[SPEAKER_02]: It will give you that.
59:59
[SPEAKER_02]: One of my favorite pictures that I ever took when I was doing photographs on the sidelines was Christian Rector holding up the turn over assert, where they would stick a deflated like football for each turnover that USC had.
1:00:12
[SPEAKER_02]: And like that way, there was like three of them on there and it was just fun.
1:00:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you know, I loved that.
1:00:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I just, you know, let's have some whimsy.
1:00:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, you can only, you only are
1:00:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:00:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah.
1:00:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And in terms of like, oh, it's corny, like, as if like everything about the place that run out with a lunch pale, that's not corny to like, yeah, all these things are corny, especially when you lose.
1:00:41
[SPEAKER_01]: When you lose everything is freaking cornball city.
1:00:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, Cornball city.
1:00:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:00:47
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's go to the mail back open up the chat.
1:00:53
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a couple of things in here, Trojan fight, why aren't we ever hearing from Gary Patterson?
1:00:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I felt like we had a lot from Danton Lynn interviews last year.
1:01:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we talked about this last week or the week we could two go.
1:01:06
[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't done any media availability since the start of camp.
1:01:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Ryan Cartier confirmed that that he he has not been made available to the media at any point during the season.
1:01:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And I suspect that is part of just crotchity old coach doesn't want to have to deal with the media thing, which is probably was probably a feature of him, you know,
1:01:33
[SPEAKER_02]: signing a contract at USC like I don't have to do in season me or whatever or whatever it is.
1:01:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Either way, I think it's again, lame, weak.
1:01:45
[SPEAKER_02]: If you aren't willing to face the media and explain yourself, then your skin is not thick enough and I judge you for it.
1:02:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that you should always stay consistent.
1:02:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And to that, I give Gary Patterson some credit.
1:02:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't stop talking in the media once the defense gave up 460 yards to Rutgers.
1:02:16
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't talk to them after the Fresno state.
1:02:18
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I couldn't talk to them after the defense.
1:02:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that, like, okay, fair enough, you're consistent.
1:02:23
[SPEAKER_01]: But to your point, yeah, I think he should back talk.
1:02:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I think everybody should be talking in the media.
1:02:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think everyone should be available in the media always unless you're literally in the entry tent.
1:02:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and and I know that like people like, oh, well, these are kids and blah, blah, like in the NFL, but the kids like it's you're the contractually obligated to these things and the kids are talking in the media.
1:02:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and the kids are talking in the media, you know, Paris and yes, and I would imagine that Gary Patterson is probably.
1:02:54
[SPEAKER_01]: very averse at explaining things, even if it's just coach pick because he has so much experience.
1:03:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But I agree with you.
1:03:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I think part of the reason you come out of retirement is because, oh, well, I'll do it as long as they don't have to recruit and talk to the media.
1:03:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like that kind of thing.
1:03:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:03:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe we're very wrong with that, but that's what the optics are saying, that's what the optics absolutely are saying.
1:03:24
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
1:03:26
[SPEAKER_01]: We have an email by the way.
1:03:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, did I miss that?
1:03:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:03:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, let's get to the email.
1:03:30
[SPEAKER_01]: This comes from Nick.
1:03:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Alicia and Michael, hope you have both had a peaceful relaxing Sunday after that horrible game.
1:03:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Not really sure what else has to be said at this point going into the middle of the season 5 and we still have the same issues on defense.
1:03:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the textbook definition of insanity.
1:03:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I was thinking about this and have been throughout the last couple of seasons.
1:03:52
[SPEAKER_01]: is there nothing Jen Cohen and company can do to try and reduce Riley's contract and pay similarly to what Michigan did with Harba post-COVID season.
1:04:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly the estimated $70 million by out is a feeding itself to figure out and where to get the money from by seasons end without holding George Lucas at gunpoint.
1:04:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Hoping for better outcome on Saturday and what this team plays with some fire, but after five years of zero adjustments, I fear we're just going to be a struggling Husky team, a high light real for demand Williams and his offense, fight on Nick appreciate it appreciate the comments there and yeah this is one of those things were like, yes, I think on the on the surface, I think you would love to see the change the terms of those things, especially because
1:04:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Harbye also, he did after the COVID season in which they went to in four, I think.
1:04:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:04:48
[SPEAKER_01]: There was a before the COVID either way.
1:04:50
[SPEAKER_01]: It was, I don't know, like, I don't know how you, I think like that's such an extreme outlier for a coach to take a pay cut.
1:05:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I also think it's easier when it's your alma mater and there's all those kind of things, your legacy, like,
1:05:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the coach in that instance is way more likely to give the school a benefit of the doubt.
1:05:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I could be talking at my ass on this, but I don't what's the incentive for Lincoln to take that deal?
1:05:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Like there just isn't.
1:05:24
[SPEAKER_02]: There's no incentive and yeah, I mean, I think that Jim Harbaugh understood that the PR was bad and he needed to fix it a little bit.
1:05:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.
1:05:38
[SPEAKER_02]: He also took the pay cut, but the contract itself had significant incentives in it, so he was kind of betting on himself, he takes the pay cut, it looks really good, it gets the admin off his back, and then he goes out and wins, he goes out, makes it to the playoff and gets all that money back anyways.
1:05:59
[SPEAKER_02]: So at the time it felt like he was going to lose his job and like you said for a Michigan man keeping that job mattered more to him than than the salary at that point.
1:06:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not the same with Riley and also I don't think Riley.
1:06:20
[SPEAKER_02]: of the very, very few people are Jim Harbaugh in terms of their like levels of insanity.
1:06:26
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think Lincoln Riley is made at the same stuff.
1:06:31
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, the only way you can restructure a contract like that is if both parties agree to it.
1:06:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you're Lincoln Riley, if you're Lincoln Riley and you and getting the cost of getting fired is a $70 million severance.
1:06:50
[SPEAKER_02]: What's it to him?
1:06:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I, I, I think yes, it would be great for us to have that have that there.
1:06:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree with Nick.
1:07:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I just don't know how you, how you get someone to agree to it.
1:07:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Trojan fight in the chat says my personal take on it is that you, I see would move on from play help until us buy out was 10 million or so.
1:07:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't expect them to do any different with Riley, at least not at 70 million.
1:07:17
[SPEAKER_02]: That's sort of where I, that's, that's been my mindset the whole time.
1:07:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I do think it's different.
1:07:22
[SPEAKER_02]: the health and thing, the investment in the program was not as significant as it is now.
1:07:30
[SPEAKER_02]: And so like there's more skin in the game.
1:07:33
[SPEAKER_01]: You're way more skin in the game.
1:07:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that you have big 10 money.
1:07:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's an IL money and all that kind of stuff is extremely important.
1:07:46
[SPEAKER_01]: That you just spent a gazillion dollars on a new facility.
1:07:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I understand the idea that like, oh, well, that means that you can't afford this, but like so much of that money is your mark done donations anyways.
1:08:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I, if you need to make a change, they will make it like, you will find a way.
1:08:07
[SPEAKER_01]: The other big thing is that,
1:08:13
[SPEAKER_02]: USC didn't part ways with Clay Hilton until after the AD change, and the only reason you could argue that they didn't make that change in 2019 was because the AD change had just happened and it was just the timing was bad and then 2020 happened and, you know,
1:08:34
[SPEAKER_02]: the the pandemic was a whole other thing that extends the health in era and then in 2020 2021 the first real opportunity without all sorts of other shit going on um i i i think the difference and remember that limsoan headache had extended clay hilton so like yeah i that money was tied to his job performance in a way that genco and is not tied to Lincoln Riley's contract
1:09:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the tough thing here is, and I know this isn't a satisfying sort of point that even tried to make, and it's not like I'm saying that this is the be all an end all or anything, but like in hindsight, Clayhoutton doesn't get fired after 2017, obviously.
1:09:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's only a year removed for the Rose Bowl.
1:09:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that would have been crazy at that point.
1:09:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And they won the Pact 12, so.
1:09:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And they still won the Pact 12.
1:09:25
[SPEAKER_02]: They won the conference, right?
1:09:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Not gonna fire a coat after you win the conference.
1:09:30
[SPEAKER_01]: uh 2018.
1:09:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Realistically 2018 was when they should have done it.
1:09:33
[SPEAKER_01]: They go five and seven.
1:09:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but it's the true freshman quarterback.
1:09:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But you can sit there and say, but they won the conference last year and it's a true freshman quarterback and okay, we'll now you tell them to change the coordinators and then we're all in on 2019.
1:09:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.
1:09:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Well,
1:09:54
[SPEAKER_01]: 2019 takes a big step forward compared to 2018 not compared to 2017 but compared to 2018.
1:10:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So like you can warp yourself to be like will they they change the offensive coordinator the offense is much better like they took step forward.
1:10:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And 2019 is when the new administration comes in and they come in in the fall.
1:10:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And I explained this at the time and people didn't believe me when I said they weren't going to fire him because of there was progress that season and if there's progress that season and your brand new on the scene and you're putting out fires everywhere else are you really going to pay a 20 million dollar buy out at that point to get rid of a coach that is improved from the year before and in the four years that he's been the coach only one year.
1:10:42
[SPEAKER_02]: was a down year.
1:10:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And that was the year when a true freshman quarterback was was playing.
1:10:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Like there were a lot of and you and I agree, they should have just pulled the question.
1:10:52
[SPEAKER_02]: It's still done.
1:10:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes.
1:10:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Because by 2019, we've simply knew what Helton's ceiling was.
1:10:58
[SPEAKER_02]: But there were good reasons why they didn't pull the plug.
1:11:01
[SPEAKER_01]: There was there was a 30,000 foot view on paper that you could understand.
1:11:07
[SPEAKER_01]: from that perspective how that doesn't happen, right?
1:11:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And then 2020 they go undefeated the right season.
1:11:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And they win the regular season back 12 title and then lose the back 12 championship game to Oregon and it's their only loss of the season and also the season was weird and like and U.S. he was missing like 20 highs or something like that.
1:11:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Like it was just a
1:11:35
[SPEAKER_02]: horribly timed, there was logic in things and not logic in things, but like all of it made sense within the context of those years and unfortunately, USC missed their opportunity in 2018 to just pull the plug.
1:11:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And because they didn't do it then, then the subsequent three years, like, just got funky.
1:12:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:12:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think with Riley,
1:12:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think the situations are quite the same.
1:12:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, he goes six and six in the regular season two years ago.
1:12:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And yes, he rebounds nine and three last year.
1:12:16
[SPEAKER_01]: But he also hasn't won a big game.
1:12:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And he also hasn't he hasn't sniffed the success from his first seat.
1:12:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't think that these situations are quite the same, which is why they're playing.
1:12:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And Trotin fight points out like Riley hasn't really like there.
1:12:37
[SPEAKER_02]: They've been one or two games.
1:12:39
[SPEAKER_02]: The no-rame game in 2021 and 23 certainly.
1:12:41
[SPEAKER_03]: That's not enough.
1:12:42
[SPEAKER_02]: But like, there's no, there haven't been blowouts.
1:12:44
[SPEAKER_02]: It's all been close for us trading losses, but Helton had been being blown out by teams, the whole way through.
1:12:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Especially in 2021.
1:12:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
1:12:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:12:57
[SPEAKER_01]: That is, that is a big factor.
1:13:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can put me on record, I think that the thing that this right now that should save Riley's job is rebounding and getting to the playoff.
1:13:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
1:13:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think that's going to happen for what it's worth.
1:13:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's going to happen.
1:13:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But if it did, I think,
1:13:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, you, you go another seat.
1:13:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, but if it doesn't, I'm struggling to think of a way in which
1:13:39
[SPEAKER_01]: it doesn't and you stay forward the only the only way is like some sort of like you beat Ohio State but you you lost to UCLA on a controversial play and over like and I think I think it's I think more realistically it's you lose to Penn State and then you went out narrowly and then you win and then you beat um you beat Ohio State
1:14:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And in the end I don't know fact that like you have put all these yeah, there's all sorts of things no for me the only way The only way to justify keeping held could be Riley at this point without a playoff birth
1:14:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, is if the the buyout doesn't have an offset because you're simply not paying 70 million straight up.
1:14:32
[SPEAKER_02]: You're just not doing that.
1:14:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you if you need it bad enough, you can.
1:14:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's not my money, but like I think if you need a bad enough, you can Alan the chets has got to be careful to allow you program to go down.
1:14:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to get back to the top being a blue bud doesn't save it.
1:14:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I asked Nebraska.
1:14:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, go ask Nebraska Brown.
1:14:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Mr. Puka has says, you know, it's bad when we miss Hilton because he was nice.
1:14:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, best thing about the Hilton era, the best thing about the Hilton era.
1:14:59
[SPEAKER_02]: And why I never, I, I, I always bristles and got annoyed with people who were like acting like Clay Hilton was the devil who was stealing money from USC and all this kind of stuff is if nothing else, there was a certainty
1:15:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I was very, very confident that if nothing else U.S. he was led by somebody who seemed to be a good person.
1:15:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm not saying that like the people running U.S. he now aren't good people.
1:15:31
[SPEAKER_02]: But Clay Hilton was a stand-up guy who did things, who went about things the right way.
1:15:49
[SPEAKER_02]: He was likable to a certain degree, or at least respectable to a certain degree, that I find it more difficult to extend that grace to Lincoln Riley because I just so much of his persona just reads fragile to me.
1:16:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:16:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, go go go win at this point like there's just do it.
1:16:20
[SPEAKER_01]: But the ship is sailed, right?
1:16:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Like so there's no other excuses.
1:16:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Trojan fights says I don't think Ohio State is unbeatable.
1:16:26
[SPEAKER_02]: They can be had against their defense.
1:16:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is the very, very interesting thing for the rest of the season is anyone will know.
1:16:34
[SPEAKER_02]: I have a lot of doubts about USC's defense.
1:16:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And Jeremiah Smith scares the crap out of me.
1:16:40
[SPEAKER_02]: But Ohio State is traveling.
1:16:43
[SPEAKER_02]: across country in a way that Oregon was not.
1:16:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Oregon's trip to L.A. was routine for them.
1:16:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Ohio State's travel is very different.
1:16:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, could USC get Ohio State at the Coliseum, they could.
1:16:56
[SPEAKER_02]: They legitimately could.
1:17:00
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not impossible.
1:17:02
[SPEAKER_02]: The only game left that I think is truly impossible is Indiana.
1:17:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but if the Ohio State game was in Columbus, we'd be saying that's in Pasta too.
1:17:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, yes.
1:17:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think there's a very good chance you will see lose of spin states.
1:17:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:17:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And the other thing is like, yes, I think that everyone could be beatable on their day.
1:17:28
[SPEAKER_01]: But as if they're not saying the same thing about S.C. You know what I mean?
1:17:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, yeah.
1:17:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Rain of Washington or Rain of Husky is sitting here looking at like Rain of Mont Lake.
1:17:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, is is looking at USC and going like why can't we beat them?
1:17:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.
1:17:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:17:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
1:17:44
[SPEAKER_01]: 100% 100%.
1:17:45
[SPEAKER_01]: All right.
1:17:46
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to wrap up there.
1:17:48
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be back Saturday night with the car cast.
1:17:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Football the only sport on now.
1:17:55
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no other sport.
1:17:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And I saw something that tonight is the last night without football for like 57 days.
1:18:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Cause Macsion starts.
1:18:06
[SPEAKER_01]: So until what like the Tuesday, December, the Tuesday after.
1:18:13
[SPEAKER_01]: after the end of the regular season.
1:18:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, something like that.
1:18:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that makes sense.
1:18:18
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, we'll wrap up there.
1:18:20
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be back Saturday night after SC and Washington.
1:18:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Join us then.
1:18:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Be sure to play along with, with over under, make your picks and so much more.
1:18:29
[SPEAKER_01]: We will see you next time.
1:18:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Until then, we'll see you.
1:18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: See ya.