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Trade Secrets: Market Moves & Moonshots · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome to 'Spy Trader',
• 0:02
  the podcast that makes sense of financial news and brings you trading strategies you can use,
• 0:09
  I'm your host,
• 0:10
  Bullish Benny,
• 0:11
  It’s 20240719,
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  18:00,
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  and we’ve got some big news hitting the S&P 500 and market outlook today,
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  First,
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  smallcap stocks are causing a buzz,
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  Barclays suggests these stocks tend to drop around the first interest rate cut,
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  Despite this,
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  smallcaps recently spiked 3,
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  6% due to Fed rate cut speculation,
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  Tom Lee from Fundstrat sees a 40% upside by August,
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  arguing they’re oversold,
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  Meanwhile,
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  experts like Ed Yardeni and SoFi's Liz Young are more skeptical,
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  citing poor earnings and economic cooling,
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  UBS projects a rosy future for the S&P 500,
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  raising its yearend target to 5,
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  900,
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  with an optimistic scenario at 6,
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  500 – a 7% to 17% upside from today,
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  This optimism is fueled by profit growth,
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  tamer inflation,
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  and potential Fed pivots,
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  AI investments are also a boon,
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  with earnings growth expected to hit 11% yearoveryear,
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  A tech outage caused by a CrowdStrike update disrupted the market,
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  tanking its shares by 11% and Microsoft’s by 1%,
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  Short sellers benefited,
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  while investors shifted out of tech megacaps,
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  causing the Russell 2000 to rise by 2,
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  3%,
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  Key takeaways: 1,
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  Smallcaps: Enjoying a rally but potentially shortlived postrate cuts; historical data warrants caution,
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  2,
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  S&P 500: UBS’s optimism driven by better earnings and AI advancements suggests a bullish outlook,
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  especially in tech,
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  3,
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  Tech Sector Vulnerability: Incidents like CrowdStrike’s highlight tech fragility; balance tech exposure with less risky sectors,
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  Recommendations: 1,
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  Cautious Allocation in SmallCaps: Conservative investment via diversified ETFs,
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  2,
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  Leverage UBS Optimism on S&P 500: Consider SPY and highgrowth segments,
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  especially AIfocused,
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  3,
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  Hedge in Tech Sector: Use options or inverse ETFs for potential tech disruptions,
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  4,
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  Diversify with Value Stocks: Balance portfolios against techheavy risks,
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  Remember,
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  analyze the data and spread your bets wisely,
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  That’s it for today's episode,
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  Stay tuned and keep trading smart,
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  This is Bullish Benny signing off!