Latest / WCHS Network Podcasts / 04/08/2025 Ask the Expert with Russell Bonasso from Cornerstone First Mortgage

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04/08/2025 Ask the Expert with Russell Bonasso from Cornerstone First Mortgage · WCHS Network Podcasts

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Speaker 1: Unlock your dream property with Meeks Realty Group, where Rich
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Speaker 2: The views and opinions expressed on this program do not
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Speaker 2: necessarily reflect the views and opinions of five eight WCCHS,
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Speaker 2: it's employees or WVRC Media.
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Speaker 3: Hey, it's very fleas a good morning to you. You
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Speaker 3: are listening to ask the expert on WCHS the voice
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Speaker 3: of Charleston here the broadcast professional forgot to there we
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Speaker 3: go plug in my headphones. That might work a little bit.
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Speaker 3: Thanks so much for tuning in this morning. You can
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Speaker 3: give us a call this morning. Three zero four three
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Speaker 3: four two eight one three one three zero four three
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Speaker 3: four two eight one through one. Why you may ask, Well,
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Speaker 3: we have in studio with us this more. We go
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Speaker 3: to have a great discussion. We're going to talk a
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Speaker 3: little bit about the economy, tariffs and all those things
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Speaker 3: that are in the headlines right now. Russell Bonasso is
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Speaker 3: with us from Cornerstone First mortgage. He's going to be
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Speaker 3: breaking down a lot of this stuff with us this morning.
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Speaker 3: If you have questions, you can give us a call
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Speaker 3: three zero four three four two eight one three one.
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Speaker 3: You can text three zero four nine three five five
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Speaker 3: zero zero eight Russell. Good morning, How you doing?
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Speaker 4: Good morning, Dale, dol Well, how are you.
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Speaker 3: I'm doing very well. Thank you so much for coming
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Speaker 3: in this morning. Looking forward to our discussion as always
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Speaker 3: on well a wide selection of topics. This morning, we're
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Speaker 3: going to talk a little bit more about the market.
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Speaker 3: You do a thing that you've mentioned a little bit before,
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Speaker 3: but as we we're focusing more on mortgages today, we're
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Speaker 3: going to talk a bit about your background and in
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Speaker 3: economics and finance, and also that you're putting out sort
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Speaker 3: of a one stop storehouse of knowledge in a newsletter
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Speaker 3: when it comes to market updates.
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Speaker 4: And exactly market update.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, so what's going on there, tell us a little
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Speaker 3: bit about that, what your kind of idea is, and
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Speaker 3: then let's get into like some of the recent analysis
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Speaker 3: that's going on in the market.
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Speaker 4: Sure, so just kind of a high level overview. My
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Speaker 4: own background, went to W graduated from Capital, went to W.
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Speaker 4: Have an undergrad in business, have a master's in business
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Speaker 4: and have a minor in communication. Been in financial services
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Speaker 4: for nearly twenty years and most recently working for Chase Bank.
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Speaker 4: In the last year been with Cornerstone. And one of
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Speaker 4: the things that I found, and it was kind of
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Speaker 4: our primary vehicle for communication with customers at Chase, was education, right,
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Speaker 4: whether it's educating them on just financial services kind of
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Speaker 4: at the ground level with checking and savings and CDs,
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Speaker 4: or if they have money and they want to invest
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Speaker 4: in the market, right, get involved in something, whether it's
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Speaker 4: like manage money with JP Morgan, or if they need
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Speaker 4: money and you know, whether it's a line of credit,
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Speaker 4: a mortgage, commercial loan. And so it was not long
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Speaker 4: before you realize you're essentially educating people all day long, Hey,
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Speaker 4: these are your options, whether it's product and information, whether
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Speaker 4: it's market information. And then as I began to progress
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Speaker 4: in the the mortgage world, I realized that one, it's complicated,
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Speaker 4: it's super complicated, and it's ever changing, right, So you
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Speaker 4: have this complex thing that's constantly changing, and so it
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Speaker 4: just makes it difficult to get a even if you're
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Speaker 4: smart and you're and you're up to date on the
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Speaker 4: information it's hard to get a bead on where things stand.
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Speaker 2: And so.
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Speaker 4: This idea of a market newsletter was really born out
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Speaker 4: of a lot of realtors and industry professionals coming to
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Speaker 4: me and just saying, hey, Russ, I don't have anybody
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Speaker 4: that it will take the time one to speak to
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Speaker 4: me because they just want to move on to something
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Speaker 4: that's going to make the money, right, And I mean,
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Speaker 4: at the end of the day, we all we all
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Speaker 4: we all want to move on to the thing that
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Speaker 4: makes us money. But at the same time, I want
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Speaker 4: to be able to educate folks that that that need
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Speaker 4: the education. And I'm talking about seasoned industry professionals, right.
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Speaker 4: They're they're smart, they're good at their craft, but again,
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Speaker 4: because it's complex and because it's ever changing, they don't
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Speaker 4: feel like they have the time for to kind of
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Speaker 4: do the market research themselves. So so that was a
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Speaker 4: big part of it. And they you know, one, I
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Speaker 4: don't have somebody to take the time, and two, even
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Speaker 4: if they did take the time, it's complex, so I
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Speaker 4: really need it kind of broken down in digestible, manageable bites.
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Speaker 4: And so that's so I've had different people that I follow.
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Speaker 4: So the platform that I'm using. It's a it's a
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Speaker 4: platform called NBS Live or Mortgage Backed Securities Live, and
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Speaker 4: it's a dude actually out of u up near down
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Speaker 4: near Lake Norman and Charlotte. He's in Cornelis, but he
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Speaker 4: has it's the the information that he puts out in
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Speaker 4: real time for me that I basically look at multiple
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Speaker 4: times a day. He's using Avengers, references, he's using you know,
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Speaker 4: all kinds of vernacular that whether you're in the industry
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Speaker 4: or not, it's you could read it and you're like, Okay,
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Speaker 4: I get that. You know, that makes sense to me.
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Speaker 4: And so that's kind of been my thought. And so
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Speaker 4: I've had a newsletter for five weeks h and so
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Speaker 4: today my thought was, I'm just gonna kind of read
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Speaker 4: one of them so people can understand the nice part
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Speaker 4: about the newsletter. So you're gonna be able to find
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Speaker 4: it on all of my social platforms. Uh, you could
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Speaker 4: go to if you just search Russell Banasso Cornerstone First Mortgage,
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Speaker 4: I'll pop up and then all of my links are
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Speaker 4: right there. Or you could search you know, Russell Banasso Instagram,
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Speaker 4: Russell Banasso Facebook and it'll pop up. And so what
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Speaker 4: I do. I have an email that goes out, but really,
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Speaker 4: if you just want to go to the site and
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Speaker 4: click on it, it'll be right there.
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Speaker 3: So that's great. And and and I don't want to
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Speaker 3: put words in your mouth if I want to try
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Speaker 3: to to to isolate the scope of this. When you
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Speaker 3: say industry professionals, are you talking mostly about in the
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Speaker 3: world of real estate?
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Speaker 4: Yeah, correct, Well I would say yes, real estate, yeah,
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Speaker 4: and kind of peripheral industry, so specifically realtors, right obviously.
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Speaker 4: But then also I would say financial advisors, I would
5:56
Speaker 4: say CPAs because you know, one of the things that
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Speaker 4: I've realized over the last twenty years is I like
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Speaker 4: to view the world through certain lenses, and so viewing
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Speaker 4: the world through the world of bonds and mortgage backed securities,
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Speaker 4: you can understand not just how the mortgage market moves,
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Speaker 4: but also how the macro global economy moves. And so
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Speaker 4: it's been helpful, helpful for me. So even if you're
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Speaker 4: just a somebody who enjoys economics, right watching how things move.
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Speaker 4: So this is as much a macroeconomic newsletter as it
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Speaker 4: is a mortgage rate specific newsletter. And there's a ton
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Speaker 4: of overlap. And I find it to be you know, helpful.
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Speaker 4: You know, I kind of I pleasure read this stuff.
6:46
Speaker 4: You know, most people are like, you know, if you're not,
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Speaker 4: and it's if you're not into it, you know, it's
6:51
Speaker 4: not going to be something that maybe you gravitate towards.
6:55
Speaker 4: And I think one of the barriers to entry is
6:57
Speaker 4: if you read something and we'll kind of talk about
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Speaker 4: it today and you don't know what it is. It's
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Speaker 4: kind of like, oh, I don't know what that is,
7:03
Speaker 4: you know, scroll to the next thing. And so my
7:06
Speaker 4: goal is to take some technical, granular ideas and just
7:11
Speaker 4: put them in layman's terms so people can understand them.
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Speaker 3: I think that's a great idea. And as somebody who
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Speaker 3: is certainly a lay person when it comes to this field,
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Speaker 3: but who has also done hundreds of financial related talk
7:23
Speaker 3: shows with experts in the field, so you know, sort
7:25
Speaker 3: of like staying at the certain hotel, I absorb some
7:27
Speaker 3: of that information. Yeah, dangerously enough. But the one thing
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Speaker 3: I know enough to know that one of the difficult
7:33
Speaker 3: things when it comes to tracking market influences and things
7:36
Speaker 3: like that, there's so many different indices that you could
7:38
Speaker 3: go off of. You don't know what they mean. If
7:40
Speaker 3: you don't have any sort of contextual relationship to them,
7:43
Speaker 3: you know, an indices, it's just a see what's going
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Speaker 3: to mean. There's all kinds of different indicators. Sometimes indicators
7:48
Speaker 3: can be inverted, you know, like when when we were
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Speaker 3: coming out of trying to come out of the recession
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Speaker 3: and we wanted to see the unemployment rate possibly tick
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Speaker 3: up a little bit. You know, that's like counterintuitive to
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Speaker 3: everything that we've been grown up, grown up understanding. There's
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Speaker 3: so much of this stuff that if you're just a
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Speaker 3: lay person or even if you're maybe in the real
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Speaker 3: estate space, but you don't really focus on this stuff
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Speaker 3: all that much. It's a little bit dense to get through.
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Speaker 4: And that's the weird thing for being in the bond
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Speaker 4: world and the mortgage backed security world is when rates
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Speaker 4: are when equities are on fire. Right, So you've had
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Speaker 4: this huge bull market, you know, huge run up, and
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Speaker 4: all your indices, whether it's the SMP, the NASDAK, the DOW,
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Speaker 4: everybody's cheering looking at their four O wink. But the
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Speaker 4: problem is mortgage rates are high. There's bubbles across multiple
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Speaker 4: asset classes. Therefore real estate prices are high. So you
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Speaker 4: have high rates, high home prices, and so for somebody
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Speaker 4: like me or just let's say you're a home buyer,
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Speaker 4: or okay, it's good if you're selling your home, but
8:50
Speaker 4: depending on what side of the fence you're on, to
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Speaker 4: your point, you might be rooting, you know, you might
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Speaker 4: be rooting for or against the data, depending on which
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Speaker 4: side of the you know, which side of the data
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Speaker 4: you're on, and so it does seem counterintuitive sometimes, but
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Speaker 4: you know, personally, for me, nobody wants to see a
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Speaker 4: market crash, of course, right, but you could also if
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Speaker 4: you're a student of history, say you know, or just
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Speaker 4: a student of physics, what goes up must come down,
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Speaker 4: and so you can't have a bull run forever like
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Speaker 4: the Roaring twenties of the nineteen twenties without any correction.
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Speaker 4: So there has to be some correction at some point
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Speaker 4: for future growth. So that's why me personally, I'm not
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Speaker 4: completely opposed to some of this correction. You know, ten
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Speaker 4: percent in two days is you know, is a shock
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Speaker 4: to the system. You know, twenty percent in off its
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Speaker 4: highs shock to the system. So I don't want to
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Speaker 4: see it happen this fast. But in general, excuse me,
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Speaker 4: in general, I do not mind some correction.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes I mean, I understand where you're coming from.
9:53
Speaker 5: There.
9:53
Speaker 3: Let's let's get through it some We can base this
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Speaker 3: off of the newsletter. And again Russell has this newsletter.
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Speaker 3: You can do a search for his name, Russell Binasso
10:00
Speaker 3: and uh and uh and just type mortgage next to it,
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Speaker 3: I think, right, And that was the way it comes up.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, or just like I said, Facebook or Instagram, it
10:07
Speaker 4: will pop up.
10:07
Speaker 3: And I'll make sure when this show's over, you can
10:09
Speaker 3: you head our social media's w c HS on Facebook
10:12
Speaker 3: or on uh on X and we will get a
10:15
Speaker 3: link out there so you can find the information easily
10:17
Speaker 3: that way. So the first uh, of course, in the
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Speaker 3: last five weeks, especially for the last two weeks anyway,
10:22
Speaker 3: if you've been doing this newsletter, uh, we've you were
10:25
Speaker 3: tracking the uh the implementation of tariffs, uh, the different announcements. Uh,
10:29
Speaker 3: the I can't remember the name of the day, but
10:31
Speaker 3: there was a day last week where liberation Yeah, there
10:33
Speaker 3: we go. Yeah that's kind of odd, but uh, uh
10:36
Speaker 3: there's uh, there's the the Liberation Day thing and and
10:39
Speaker 3: and so there's been a lot to track when it
10:41
Speaker 3: comes to this, there's been a lot.
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Speaker 4: And even real time. You know that as of this morning,
10:45
Speaker 4: and you know what what he's what they're talking about
10:47
Speaker 4: with China and whether China is gonna you know, he's
10:49
Speaker 4: put a deadline of today I think on it. So uh,
10:52
Speaker 4: but last week was a great kind of microcosm of hey,
10:55
Speaker 4: here's a week where a lot of data out there.
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Speaker 4: So I'm just going to kind of read what my
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Speaker 4: new newsletter says and then speak to some of the
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Speaker 4: charts and things that are in it. So the headline
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Speaker 4: is lowest rates since October as tariffs spark staggering volatility.
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Speaker 4: So the meatia of the article is it was a
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Speaker 4: great week for fans of chaos, volatility, and low interest rates,
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Speaker 4: as all three were delivered in spades despite the presence
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Speaker 4: of several big ticket economic reports. The catalyst was Wednesdays
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Speaker 4: afternoon the tariff announcement, followed by the international response on
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Speaker 4: Thursday night. So for the most part, the market has
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Speaker 4: been responding to tariff news by selling stocks and buying bonds.
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Speaker 4: Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, and because rates
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Speaker 4: fall when demands for bond increases, this has also meant
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Speaker 4: lower mortgage rates, a common market jargon term for This
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Speaker 4: phenomenon is flight to safety. So this is something this
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Speaker 4: is just me speaking, This is not an article, but
11:46
Speaker 4: this is something that we've talked about on a regular basis.
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Speaker 4: But it's good for people to understand, Hey, there's a
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Speaker 4: correlation between stocks and bonds. Those same folks that have money,
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Speaker 4: those same investors that have money in the market, when
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Speaker 4: they get spooked, they want to go to someplace safe.
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Speaker 4: Those are government bonds, right, and also mortgage back to
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Speaker 4: securities called flight to safety. The article continues, it's not
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Speaker 4: just US tariffs that the news has made news this
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Speaker 4: week if they were the catalyst for what followed. Early
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Speaker 4: Friday morning, China announced retaliatory tariffs on the US, thus
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Speaker 4: making investors even more concerned about the global economic and
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Speaker 4: further fueling the flight to safety. This can be seen
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Speaker 4: in the following chart showing stock prices and bond deals
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Speaker 4: which correlate with mortgage rates. And then I show basically
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Speaker 4: a chart of the Nasdaq compared to the ten year
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Speaker 4: treasury yield. And then what's cool is I isolate where
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Speaker 4: the tariff announce announcement happened on April third, and then
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Speaker 4: kind of give you an arrow in terms of the
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Speaker 4: China retaliation, so you can see how both impacted both indicies.
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Speaker 4: To get a sense of how big a deal this
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Speaker 4: has been for markets this week, consider the SMP or
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Speaker 4: the Standard and Poors five hundreds, and they're often cited
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Speaker 4: volatility metric. What's funny, it's called the VIX. I'd never
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Speaker 4: even being in an industry, I'd never really paid much attention,
13:04
Speaker 4: and I've maybe heard of this peripherally, but I've seen
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Speaker 4: it quoted like three times in articles over the last week,
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Speaker 4: called the volatility metrics. The BIX says, part of the
13:12
Speaker 4: reaction is the interest rate market was based on the
13:15
Speaker 4: implication for the Fed policy. Specifically, traders quickly began betting
13:19
Speaker 4: on a higher probability of deeper FED rate cuts in
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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, So in other words, the Fed kind
13:24
Speaker 4: of showed their hand and said that they were going
13:26
Speaker 4: to cut rates this year, so investors they were making
13:30
Speaker 4: that assumption. That shift can be seen in the following
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Speaker 4: chart of markets expected FED funds rate after the June meeting.
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Speaker 4: And then we've got another chart there that basically has
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Speaker 4: the tarif announcement and the China retaliation, so you can
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Speaker 4: see how kind of both affected it, and then says
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Speaker 4: that the chart above helps us reconcile at frustrating Friday afternoon,
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Speaker 4: in which interest rates started out much lower than they
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Speaker 4: ended up. Even without this knowledge, The important thing to
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Speaker 4: focus on is the bigger picture. The average daily mortgage
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Speaker 4: rate just fell to its lowest level since October of
14:01
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four, even after accounting for Friday afternoon's modest reversal.
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Speaker 4: And then I've got another charge that just tracks since
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Speaker 4: goes all the way back to May of twenty four
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Speaker 4: and where the current market rate and like the lowest point.
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Speaker 4: So interestingly, again me talking not in the article, the
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Speaker 4: lowest point was back in on September eighteenth of twenty
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Speaker 4: twenty four, the Fed said that they were going to
14:26
Speaker 4: lower rates, and they did for the first time, and
14:28
Speaker 4: so we saw this huge run up of investors saying, hey,
14:31
Speaker 4: we're gonna you know, we are expecting the Fed to
14:35
Speaker 4: lower rates, and so we're going to buy mortgage back securities.
14:37
Speaker 4: We're going to buy mortgage back securities. As soon as
14:39
Speaker 4: they lowered the rate, you know what happened, the same
14:43
Speaker 4: investors said, you know what, we're going to sell off,
14:44
Speaker 4: and so the rates started to go up, So it
14:46
Speaker 4: was this kind of counterintuitive thing fed cuts rates and
14:50
Speaker 4: then markets moved north and that was the lowest rate
14:53
Speaker 4: point in the last really since rates started to rise
14:58
Speaker 4: right so October, and then I had multiple people that
15:01
Speaker 4: I was waiting to do a refinance for. We had
15:03
Speaker 4: our finger on the trigger, you know, ready to pull
15:05
Speaker 4: the trigger into this refinance. Rates started to move north
15:08
Speaker 4: and we have not been back down to those October
15:11
Speaker 4: levels since then. And just to to get if you're
15:13
Speaker 4: looking at this chart, we're about halfway back from the
15:15
Speaker 4: high on right before January twentieth, that was the high,
15:20
Speaker 4: and we're about halfway back to that point, so we're
15:23
Speaker 4: really not even close to the September eighteenth low in
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Speaker 4: terms of rate. And then it just kind of finishes
15:30
Speaker 4: off the article. Given the precipitous nature of this market
15:32
Speaker 4: movement and the fact that tariffs can change far more
15:36
Speaker 4: quickly than the typical interest rate motivations, it goes without
15:38
Speaker 4: saying that long term lows should not be taken for granted.
15:41
Speaker 4: While rates could remain here and even move lower under
15:44
Speaker 4: the right circumstances, there's also a risk of a rapid
15:46
Speaker 4: rebound Ultimately, though it won't be tariffs that dictate long
15:50
Speaker 4: term momentum. It will be the actual economic fallout or
15:54
Speaker 4: lack thereof. This week's volatility is just the market's way
15:57
Speaker 4: of letting us know that it's worried about tariff's impact
15:59
Speaker 4: on the ONO me And so that's it's a fairly
16:02
Speaker 4: short read and there's not a ton of technical jargon
16:07
Speaker 4: other than you know, some general references. There are some
16:11
Speaker 4: other articles that we'll talk a little more about what
16:14
Speaker 4: the actual so outside of tariffs, usually the thing that
16:17
Speaker 4: moves the needle are like market data weekend and week
16:21
Speaker 4: out and some of the other articles.
16:23
Speaker 3: We'll talk about that.
16:23
Speaker 4: But then after that you've got additional news headlines, and
16:25
Speaker 4: you've got about sixteen headlines if you're like, oh, I
16:29
Speaker 4: like the idea of that, and you could click on
16:31
Speaker 4: any of them and it'll give you more updates. So
16:34
Speaker 4: that's just kind of the most recent one on on
16:37
Speaker 4: April fourth.
16:39
Speaker 3: That's a lot of good information, and each of these
16:42
Speaker 3: newsletters come jam packed with this type of stuff, and
16:44
Speaker 3: we can get a little bit more into that when
16:46
Speaker 3: we come back. Let's go and take our break right now.
16:47
Speaker 3: When we come back, we can take your phone calls.
16:49
Speaker 3: I think we have a phone call on hold, so
16:51
Speaker 3: stay there. We'll get to you when we come back.
16:52
Speaker 3: Three zero four three four two eight one three one
16:54
Speaker 3: three zero four three four two eight one three one.
16:56
Speaker 3: You're listening to Ask the Expert and studio with us
16:59
Speaker 3: this morning is Rush Opinaso. He is from Cornerstone First More.
17:01
Speaker 3: He's talking this morning about his market newsletter that you
17:04
Speaker 3: can find just searching out his naming. You can subscribe
17:06
Speaker 3: to it at any of his social media sites. We'll
17:08
Speaker 3: get some links out for that a little bit later on.
17:09
Speaker 3: We'll take a break and be backward after this. You're
17:11
Speaker 3: listening to Ask the Expert nopecchs the voice of Charleston.
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18:42
Speaker 3: Today you're listening to ask the Expert WCHS the voice
19:11
Speaker 3: of Charles. So thanks so much for tuning in this
19:12
Speaker 3: morning and listening to our musical interview there. As we
19:15
Speaker 3: were coming back a little bit game planning for the
19:16
Speaker 3: remainder of the show. Let's do our first order of visits.
19:19
Speaker 3: We have a phone caller that's been holding on line. Patiently, caller,
19:22
Speaker 3: you're on the air, and now what's your first name?
19:24
Speaker 5: Hey, this is still from Dunbar.
19:27
Speaker 3: Hey, go ahead with your question for us.
19:29
Speaker 8: Thank you. R. I've been reading your newsletter the last
19:34
Speaker 8: couple of weeks and there's a lot of great information
19:37
Speaker 8: and I appreciate the charts and the broad overview that
19:40
Speaker 8: you're providing. And you know, you're talking today about Liberation Day.
19:44
Speaker 5: Where mister Trump has essentially tanked the economy and that's
19:50
Speaker 5: really doing a financial disservice to all the West Virginians
19:53
Speaker 5: that voted for him. Do you think that is Treasury
19:57
Speaker 5: Secretary Scott Bissett and Commerce Secretary mister do you think
20:03
Speaker 5: they dumped all their stock with the and trading on
20:06
Speaker 5: the inside information in anticipation of Liberation Day?
20:11
Speaker 4: You know, I can hear in the head fund chair.
20:14
Speaker 4: You know, there were articles of I saw where different
20:19
Speaker 4: CEOs did liquid eight stock. You know, Buffett's been liquidating
20:25
Speaker 4: stock and sitting in a cash position for months and
20:28
Speaker 4: months now. And I would say that anybody that could
20:32
Speaker 4: see the tariff news coming as it was broadly broadcast,
20:35
Speaker 4: that you know there was going to be an impact
20:39
Speaker 4: on the market that was potentially negative. So but as
20:44
Speaker 4: far as best in or or the Commerce Secretary liquiding funds,
20:49
Speaker 4: it's hard to say. It's hard to say, And I
20:52
Speaker 4: mean personally, I think that the you know, if you
20:57
Speaker 4: look at the data, it's going to be the story
21:01
Speaker 4: is a long way from being over market's correct. And
21:06
Speaker 4: you know, Dale and I were just talking about the
21:08
Speaker 4: amount of people that have four one ks. It's amazing
21:12
Speaker 4: how many what percentage of the overall population hold the
21:15
Speaker 4: majority of the wealth in the of those industries, and
21:19
Speaker 4: how many folks on main street either don't have a
21:22
Speaker 4: brokerage account or they have a pension and it's not
21:26
Speaker 4: necessarily tied directly to those markets. So in terms of,
21:32
Speaker 4: you know, the story being told, I think it's I
21:37
Speaker 4: think there's a lot of doom and gloom, but I'm
21:40
Speaker 4: hopeful that things will correct. And like we were talking
21:46
Speaker 4: about before we went to break, depending on which side
21:49
Speaker 4: that you're on. You know, there's a lot of nobody
21:52
Speaker 4: wants to see a loss in their four A one K.
21:54
Speaker 4: I certainly don't want to see one of mine. But
21:57
Speaker 4: depending on which side of the fench you're on, if
21:59
Speaker 4: you're a new home buyer and you see lower rates
22:02
Speaker 4: or you see home prices come down, so that's an
22:04
Speaker 4: opportunity to move in where it's been prohibitive over the
22:08
Speaker 4: last thirty six months, you know, three to four years.
22:11
Speaker 3: So yeah, the thanks for your phone call. I appreciate that.
22:13
Speaker 3: Lee's a phone line open for you if you want
22:14
Speaker 3: to call N three zero four three four two eight
22:16
Speaker 3: one three one three four two eight one three one.
22:18
Speaker 3: Still about fifteen minutes left in the program here, and
22:20
Speaker 3: I know you wanted to get to another another one
22:22
Speaker 3: of your updates that we could get to with different things,
22:24
Speaker 3: and this deal more specifically with rates and how those
22:27
Speaker 3: things kind of relate with each other. Because you're absolutely right,
22:30
Speaker 3: I'm actually in I'm one of those people that are
22:32
Speaker 3: sort of waiting on the sidelines right now because I
22:34
Speaker 3: know how this stuff works. I know how my narrow
22:37
Speaker 3: era area of financial liberation that I can go through,
22:43
Speaker 3: Like I know what I can spend and I know
22:45
Speaker 3: what it's going to take. And I've been waiting, literally
22:47
Speaker 3: for almost two years now, and I can't get things
22:50
Speaker 3: to align. I either need to to to buy a
22:54
Speaker 3: new house or I need to make some significant improvements
22:57
Speaker 3: to my current home, which is either lumber or entry.
23:01
Speaker 3: I need for one of those two things to help
23:03
Speaker 3: me out a lot, and it's been it's been difficult.
23:05
Speaker 3: It seems like every time I get ready for one thing,
23:08
Speaker 3: the other thing is what becomes what might be more likely,
23:10
Speaker 3: and then I get ready for that, and then the
23:11
Speaker 3: other thing that comes more likely. It's been kind of rough.
23:13
Speaker 3: So you're right, depending just because the general sentiment really
23:17
Speaker 3: rules the day on a lot of this stuff, right,
23:18
Speaker 3: So then there might be sentiment out there, but that
23:20
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that there's not places in there where things
23:23
Speaker 3: function just like it should and or where there is
23:26
Speaker 3: the opportunity for someone who's on the sidelines looking to
23:28
Speaker 3: get in right.
23:29
Speaker 4: And then the other piece of that where you know,
23:33
Speaker 4: even when we were Trump's were for terriffs. Where Trump
23:37
Speaker 4: first floated tariffs, the idea that are they going to
23:41
Speaker 4: be inflationary or deflationary? And initially I thought they might
23:44
Speaker 4: be inflationary, but really, if you take a hard look
23:47
Speaker 4: at it, they're deflationary because precisely what we're seeing in
23:50
Speaker 4: the markets right now, right so, asset prices come down,
23:54
Speaker 4: prices fall, even though on its face, somebody can make
23:58
Speaker 4: the argument that they're uh inflationary. So on the subject
24:02
Speaker 4: of inflation, that is kind of the previous article. So
24:06
Speaker 4: I'm gonna give you just kind of a a read
24:11
Speaker 4: on the previous article. And I'm glad that you know,
24:14
Speaker 4: our caller was checking out and looking at some of
24:16
Speaker 4: the you know, my, my previous.
24:19
Speaker 3: Stuff, the cross it on their own. Yeah, yeah, that's great.
24:22
Speaker 4: So this one's titled this was so the previous Friday,
24:25
Speaker 4: the the twenty eighth said inflation told rates to rise,
24:29
Speaker 4: rates didn't listen. So heading into the week, market rocher
24:33
Speaker 4: market watchers knew or thought they knew that Friday's PCE.
24:37
Speaker 4: So you'll find in this newsletter that there is some
24:40
Speaker 4: language that you might come across it and go, what
24:42
Speaker 4: in the world is PCE. I've never heard of PCE.
24:45
Speaker 4: So what I would encourage you to do is just
24:46
Speaker 4: do a quick search, right, a quick Google search to
24:49
Speaker 4: say what is PCE, and you'll find out that when
24:52
Speaker 4: you when you search it, it means your uh consumer
24:59
Speaker 4: exp right, your personal consumer expenditures, which is different than PCI,
25:05
Speaker 4: which is the price in consumer index. And it says
25:09
Speaker 4: that this has had a chance to help or hurt
25:12
Speaker 4: rates more than any other economic report. When PCE came
25:15
Speaker 4: out the higher than expected on Friday morning, market watchers
25:20
Speaker 4: knew or thought they knew what happened next, but instead
25:23
Speaker 4: the opposite happened. So this is one of those if
25:25
Speaker 4: you're trying to kind of read the tea leaves right
25:28
Speaker 4: and it doesn't make sense, I'll get into this is
25:31
Speaker 4: why market rates may be moved in a different direction
25:33
Speaker 4: than you're expected, says even like this, events like this
25:37
Speaker 4: and pundits, journalists and all other manner of rate watchers
25:40
Speaker 4: scurrying for explanations. Some are fairly logical, such as the
25:43
Speaker 4: fact that the unrounded PCE numbers were much closer to
25:46
Speaker 4: what the market was expecting. And then I kind of
25:49
Speaker 4: go into what that looks like in terms of unrounded
25:52
Speaker 4: numbers versus round and numbers, and then I say, in
25:55
Speaker 4: other words, inflation looked like it rose more than it
25:57
Speaker 4: actually did due to the custom of rounding the numbers
26:00
Speaker 4: to the nearest tenth of a percent. In addition, the
26:02
Speaker 4: point four zero zero forecast is also rounded, and it
26:05
Speaker 4: could be that forecasters will already expecting a higher unrounded
26:08
Speaker 4: number zero point three four zero. It could also be
26:11
Speaker 4: that the two point five annual rate of headline inflation
26:14
Speaker 4: simply isn't that threatening. So here's another graph that basically
26:18
Speaker 4: tracks PCE all the way back to twenty fifteen. And
26:21
Speaker 4: what's interesting is so the target for inflation that you
26:23
Speaker 4: hear about, so you like, you're like, okay, what is PCE.
26:26
Speaker 4: It's basically just one of the inflation metrics. The target
26:30
Speaker 4: fed inflation is two percent, because that's a number that
26:32
Speaker 4: they say, you know what, we're good with that if
26:36
Speaker 4: the market expands and there is two percent, If things
26:40
Speaker 4: cost two percent more in April of twenty twenty five
26:44
Speaker 4: than they did in April twenty twenty four, people can
26:46
Speaker 4: live with that. What they can't live with is when
26:48
Speaker 4: things cost nine percent more, you know, which is what
26:51
Speaker 4: the highest inflation number was at. And so, but what's
26:54
Speaker 4: interesting is PCE is slightly lower than the CPI to
27:02
Speaker 4: the tune of about a point or so, so this
27:05
Speaker 4: peaked in twenty twenty three around seven percent. And then
27:10
Speaker 4: it just kind of tracks the data, you know, over
27:12
Speaker 4: the last ten years between between PCE and PCI. And
27:17
Speaker 4: then on a less speculative note, we could be sure
27:19
Speaker 4: that rates have been more than willing to move a
27:21
Speaker 4: bit lower on days where the stock market is tanking.
27:24
Speaker 4: Friday was definitely one of those. And then it gives it.
27:26
Speaker 4: It shows the correlation again like we did in my
27:30
Speaker 4: newsletter on this past Friday, the correlation between the ten
27:33
Speaker 4: year treasury yield and stocks. And then I kind of
27:36
Speaker 4: wrap it up by saying it would be nice if
27:38
Speaker 4: all this meant that rates were invincible and could endure
27:41
Speaker 4: an onslaught of unfriendly economic data. But a bit of
27:43
Speaker 4: caution is in order. First off, it is highly likely
27:46
Speaker 4: that there are distortions in the bond market due to
27:48
Speaker 4: the unique trading that takes place at the end of
27:50
Speaker 4: the day any given month, quarter in marches both. So
27:55
Speaker 4: this is me talking that's called position squaring, and so
27:57
Speaker 4: position squaring just means that traders like to wrap up
28:01
Speaker 4: positions at the end of a week, at the end
28:03
Speaker 4: of a month and at the end of a quarter,
28:05
Speaker 4: which is exactly what March was. So that's like a
28:07
Speaker 4: little tidbit that is you know that you know, I
28:10
Speaker 4: learned about positions squaring a long time ago, but it's
28:14
Speaker 4: a common thing that happens in the bond market. This
28:17
Speaker 4: is where traders may be buying or selling large amounts
28:19
Speaker 4: of bonds, thus putting downward or upward pressure on rates, respectively,
28:23
Speaker 4: for reasons that have nothing to do with the latest
28:25
Speaker 4: economic data. And then the implication is that we could
28:28
Speaker 4: see some artificial support at the end of the present
28:31
Speaker 4: week from the combination of stock market weakness and month
28:34
Speaker 4: quarter in distortions. At least one of those things will
28:36
Speaker 4: no longer be in play for most of the next week.
28:39
Speaker 4: What we do know, and so this was before the
28:42
Speaker 4: tariff news came out, so you're kind of like you're watching,
28:44
Speaker 4: you're watching, You're not sure how the tariff news will
28:47
Speaker 4: will affect things. And then you know, the last week
28:50
Speaker 4: was was much different from this technical data. And then
28:53
Speaker 4: I wrap it up with the last pair I guess
28:55
Speaker 4: is what we do know is that the first week
28:56
Speaker 4: of any given month always plays host to an active
28:59
Speaker 4: and important slate of economic data. Among those reports next
29:02
Speaker 4: Friday's jobs report, which ironically jobs really didn't do anything
29:06
Speaker 4: to move the needle on Friday because it was all
29:08
Speaker 4: tariff news. Among those is Friday's job report, and and
29:14
Speaker 4: it's it's always one of, if not the biggest potential
29:18
Speaker 4: flashpoint of rate volatility in terms of the scheduled data.
29:21
Speaker 4: And then again, I've got the average mortgage rates, I've
29:23
Speaker 4: got the NBS and Treasury market data, recent housing data,
29:27
Speaker 4: and then some other headlines. What's interesting is so that
29:31
Speaker 4: last point about the jobs data always being a big
29:33
Speaker 4: market mover depending on where you're at in a particular
29:37
Speaker 4: cycle economic cycle. You have normal data, normal data that
29:42
Speaker 4: drives and informs what bond buyers and mortgage backed security
29:47
Speaker 4: investors will do. I feel like with the tariff news
29:51
Speaker 4: sometimes you will enter into whether it's a bubble that's bursting,
29:55
Speaker 4: you know, whether it's dot com, whether it's the Great
29:56
Speaker 4: Financial Crisis. There are bigger things that just dominate the
30:01
Speaker 4: narrative for long periods of time. I don't know how
30:05
Speaker 4: long the tariff news will, you know, dominate. We'll see,
30:08
Speaker 4: you know, I saw this morning before, even before I
30:10
Speaker 4: came in here, the Dow was up twelve hundred points
30:13
Speaker 4: in pre market hour, so you know that correction could
30:16
Speaker 4: come back it you know, it could come back in
30:18
Speaker 4: a hurry the market, or maybe it takes a little
30:21
Speaker 4: more time. So but that's kind of a that's kind
30:25
Speaker 4: of a brief overview of the last two of these.
30:28
Speaker 4: And again it's for people that would like a a
30:35
Speaker 4: kind of a a second opportunity if you already have
30:38
Speaker 4: a primary opportunity, you know, but a second opportunity to
30:41
Speaker 4: think about kind of ingest be informed. My little tagline
30:45
Speaker 4: is creating informed decisions, you know, because knowledge is power.
30:49
Speaker 4: So and the goal is it's it's a short enough
30:51
Speaker 4: it's a short enough letter that if you want to
30:54
Speaker 4: just pop on there and read it and take ten minutes,
30:56
Speaker 4: you can, Or if you want to go off some
30:58
Speaker 4: of the links and do a deeper dive, you could
30:59
Speaker 4: spend you know, an hour plus just educating yourself.
31:03
Speaker 3: I don't know about most people out there and how
31:05
Speaker 3: they consume things these days. I'm savvy enough in the
31:08
Speaker 3: media industry where I use other media very little. I mean, honestly,
31:12
Speaker 3: there's some highly specialized stuff that I use. I have
31:15
Speaker 3: a network of local news that I go to on
31:17
Speaker 3: a lot of things where I'll make sure that I'm
31:18
Speaker 3: checking on things. But I'm not skeptical, but I just
31:21
Speaker 3: know how sausage is made on a lot of these things,
31:23
Speaker 3: and so it turns out that newsletters is actually a
31:26
Speaker 3: really good place. The thing I like about newsletters is
31:29
Speaker 3: is the person doing it, and you're a very balanced person.
31:33
Speaker 3: But nobody necessarily expects an individual to be completely one
31:36
Speaker 3: hundred percent objective all the time, or at least you're
31:39
Speaker 3: not held to that same standard as an organization or something,
31:41
Speaker 3: so you're allowed to share an opinion or to say
31:43
Speaker 3: something every once in a while when people don't get mad,
31:46
Speaker 3: like if you're part of an organization and you do so.
31:48
Speaker 3: I subscribe to all kinds of newsletters from all types
31:51
Speaker 3: of industries, food and beverage industry, you know, hospitality industry,
31:56
Speaker 3: just because I'm interested in them. And in the course
31:57
Speaker 3: of my job, I usually run across stuff like this
31:59
Speaker 3: and I need an a little bit about it. But
32:01
Speaker 3: the information that ends up being presented to you, and
32:03
Speaker 3: you have to build a relationship with the person. You
32:06
Speaker 3: understand that you trust the person right that's providing the information.
32:08
Speaker 3: But once you find the person you trust. It is
32:11
Speaker 3: so much easier to get through that information and where
32:13
Speaker 3: it's already related for you. Here is this this indicator,
32:17
Speaker 3: here's the indicies that tells you what it's about. Here's
32:20
Speaker 3: some more information on it, and you can click through
32:22
Speaker 3: and do that stuff. It's way easier than number one,
32:25
Speaker 3: getting top line from like a newspaper or from a
32:27
Speaker 3: news organization's website, because it's a generalist that's writing that,
32:30
Speaker 3: and they're not going to really know the details behind it,
32:33
Speaker 3: and they're under whatever the guidelines are editorially from the
32:36
Speaker 3: the newspaper to present things in a say, a balanced way.
32:40
Speaker 3: What if it's not a balanced What if it's not
32:42
Speaker 3: there's not a balance into it. You know, that's elevating
32:45
Speaker 3: a minority inferior position just in the in the in
32:48
Speaker 3: the sake of balance. So I don't like media in
32:50
Speaker 3: a lot of ways for that reason. Newsletters, on the
32:53
Speaker 3: other hand, you can. You know, once you state your position, man,
32:56
Speaker 3: that's your position. If people trust you, that's great.
32:58
Speaker 4: And yeah, and as far as like being a one
33:00
Speaker 4: inside of the other, it's you know, if if you're
33:03
Speaker 4: looking for the emotional response, because you're either for or
33:05
Speaker 4: against the data. You'll be kind of it'll be a
33:09
Speaker 4: letdown because it's it is dry and its presentation because
33:15
Speaker 4: it's it's it's just you know, as they would say,
33:17
Speaker 4: just the facts, you know, and so uh and again
33:21
Speaker 4: because it's complex, because it's ever changing.
33:24
Speaker 8: Uh.
33:24
Speaker 4: In my opinion, there's not really a whole lot of
33:26
Speaker 4: room for editorial or opinion. And it's just, hey, here's
33:32
Speaker 4: this is where we are this week. A lot of
33:33
Speaker 4: a lot of data. Let's move through it as quick
33:35
Speaker 4: as we can. Here where here's where we are. Let's
33:37
Speaker 4: catch up again next week.
33:39
Speaker 3: And what I like is somebody like you that has
33:41
Speaker 3: a background in this and it can present the information.
33:43
Speaker 3: I use this this example a lot when I'm talking
33:45
Speaker 3: to people. If you do a search on something, and
33:47
Speaker 3: I use finances a lot because this is an important
33:50
Speaker 3: area for this. You do a search on something like
33:52
Speaker 3: a financial news that's coming up, and you might have
33:54
Speaker 3: the USA Today article that comes up, the Yahoo article
33:56
Speaker 3: that comes up, or something like that, and they're fine,
33:58
Speaker 3: you know, they give you like information on it. But
34:00
Speaker 3: then you get to like, say the Financial Times article
34:03
Speaker 3: or the Bloomberg article, and you read the first part
34:05
Speaker 3: of it, you're like, man, this is some in depth stuff.
34:07
Speaker 3: I want more of this, and you click read more.
34:09
Speaker 3: Oh it's seventy five dollars a month. Yeah, yep a month,
34:13
Speaker 3: YEP for a subscription to this for this service. The
34:16
Speaker 3: reason is is because those are actual experts that are
34:18
Speaker 3: writing the information behind that paywall, and it's not the
34:21
Speaker 3: generalist that's working for USA Today or whatever. So the
34:24
Speaker 3: information you're getting behind there seventy five dollars a month
34:27
Speaker 3: isn't for everybody, but for people in the industry, they
34:29
Speaker 3: know the value of what they're getting from somebody that
34:31
Speaker 3: knows what they're talking about.
34:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, and this is this is all free, so it's.
34:34
Speaker 3: Not what I mean, you're isolating that information.
34:36
Speaker 4: Down it's not monetized and it's now some of the
34:40
Speaker 4: downside is it's a lot of US based news. It's
34:44
Speaker 4: not necessarily hyper local. I will do other hyper local
34:48
Speaker 4: post whether it's you know, I'm based in Elk City, right,
34:52
Speaker 4: so you know all things west side of Charleston, Charleston,
34:55
Speaker 4: can all Valley, southern West Virginia, West Virginia, so you
35:00
Speaker 4: will see other posts like that. But this newsletter is
35:03
Speaker 4: you know, high level US and global information.
35:07
Speaker 3: So going back to sort of a kind of your
35:09
Speaker 3: core business when you can't want her to talk about
35:12
Speaker 3: mortgages and how it relates to this. If somebody is
35:14
Speaker 3: in the space right now and we have like a
35:15
Speaker 3: minute left, so thought it'd be a good time to
35:17
Speaker 3: kind of get this out to folks. If people are
35:20
Speaker 3: in this space where they're they're looking to either purchase
35:22
Speaker 3: or they're looking to refive, they're looking something along those lines,
35:25
Speaker 3: and there themselves are watching like the rates, and they're like,
35:28
Speaker 3: can't do it, can't do it, can't do it. There's worse.
35:31
Speaker 3: They should contact you at least get like a prequalificate,
35:34
Speaker 3: get something ready to go, get a rate lock ready
35:36
Speaker 3: to go. So when if there is a movement, something
35:38
Speaker 3: that happens and you get to that point that you
35:40
Speaker 3: can move, you're ready to do it.
35:41
Speaker 4: And just to that point. So what we actually saw
35:44
Speaker 4: in the mortgage rate space, rates move down to some
35:47
Speaker 4: of the lowest levels in the last you know, since
35:52
Speaker 4: since September eighteenth. As a mortgage person, I was thinking
35:57
Speaker 4: they were going to drop even more. But because so
36:00
Speaker 4: many countries have come to the table and said, hey,
36:01
Speaker 4: we're willing to basically take our tariffs off and the
36:04
Speaker 4: bad news is less bad seventy two hours later. We
36:08
Speaker 4: see it this morning, margats rebounding ie mortgage rates have
36:11
Speaker 4: actually ticked up some over the last twenty four hours.
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Speaker 3: It's crazy how that works, right, Yeah, yeah, great education
36:18
Speaker 3: and information as always with Russell Bonanco from a Corners
36:21
Speaker 3: First Mortgage. You can do that search Russell Bonanco Mortgages
36:24
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Speaker 3: so much for your time, for sure you to gain
36:30
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