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The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four seven,
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Speaker 1: seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight hundred
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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,
1:15
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Melman,
1:19
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined
1:23
Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion,
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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunter ed O Simon, Hello, Chad.
1:36
Speaker 1: I'm explaining obviously there has been a lot going on
1:40
Speaker 1: in the NFL, from the Bills Bengals game on Monday
1:46
Speaker 1: night and with tomorrow Hamlin and what happened there, which
1:50
Speaker 1: is tragic, and we've all been trying to figure out,
1:53
Speaker 1: as we do in situations where something bigger than sports happens,
1:58
Speaker 1: how do we go and talk about betting. So, for
2:03
Speaker 1: those who normally listened to the show live on AMP
2:06
Speaker 1: Tuesday afternoons, we postponed doing the show because we didn't
2:10
Speaker 1: really know what was happening. There was no announcement yet
2:14
Speaker 1: on what was happening with the Bills Bengals game, Obviously
2:18
Speaker 1: there's still no announcement for tomorrow Hamlin. As we record
2:21
Speaker 1: this on Tuesday night. We also didn't know what the
2:24
Speaker 1: NFL on how they were going to treat the games
2:25
Speaker 1: this weekend, so we just waited until we knew there
2:29
Speaker 1: was some sort of certainty with what's happening in the games.
2:33
Speaker 1: The games are happening. It's what we do is talk
2:37
Speaker 1: about betting on the games, and so we decided to
2:41
Speaker 1: do the show. We're gonna play a pretty straight this episode.
2:45
Speaker 1: Not a lot of the usual bells and whistles that
2:48
Speaker 1: you'll normally get. Will be back on Thursday live on
2:51
Speaker 1: AMP for the show. There's also obviously a lot of
2:57
Speaker 1: people are asking, you know, practical questions, what happens to
3:01
Speaker 1: your bets? You know, we had a story and Action
3:03
Speaker 1: bets are avoided. The standard procedure is if there is
3:06
Speaker 1: a game that doesn't get finished within seven days of
3:09
Speaker 1: it's starting, that's are avoided. Um, you can check out
3:12
Speaker 1: Action Network for that. Simon and I on Thursday will
3:14
Speaker 1: dig a little bit deeper into sort of futures and
3:17
Speaker 1: hedging and things like that because we've talked a lot
3:19
Speaker 1: about that and making bets on those on certain teams
3:23
Speaker 1: and winning divisions, seatings, etcetera. We'll talk a little bit
3:27
Speaker 1: more about that on Thursday. Hopefully we'll get a little
3:29
Speaker 1: bit more clarity on sort of how things are evolving
3:33
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So we're just gonna get right to it.
3:36
Speaker 1: Me and Chat had a rough start. We'll go to
3:39
Speaker 1: the quick recap. But yeah, the two and three, I'll
3:42
Speaker 1: take full blame. Chat, I'm so sorry, try to be
3:45
Speaker 1: too cute. Take the line value. I was killing myself
3:49
Speaker 1: the minute the game started. I said, why did we
3:51
Speaker 1: do that? Me? Chad, damn it. We've been grinding all
3:54
Speaker 1: year and we went with the stupid line value, So
3:57
Speaker 1: killing myself over that. You were spot on Mber that
4:01
Speaker 1: minute that game started to you knew that was gonna
4:02
Speaker 1: be a cover. What were the up seven? Nothing? And
4:04
Speaker 1: then my homes through like an end zone pick. So
4:07
Speaker 1: you nailed that one. So I and like I have
4:10
Speaker 1: like notes for our whole season. My biggest note is
4:12
Speaker 1: don't chase the line value. And I fell right into
4:16
Speaker 1: because that four Nanders one sucked me in. Though like
4:17
Speaker 1: that one felt so good. Um, like the Atlanta one,
4:21
Speaker 1: I get like that's gonna happen. But that was classic
4:24
Speaker 1: football where the backup QB came in for the Raiders
4:28
Speaker 1: and he puts up thirty four points against the best
4:31
Speaker 1: defensive football. That's why I love gambling. I love football,
4:34
Speaker 1: so um it will constantly humble you quick. Probably my
4:38
Speaker 1: worst weekend betting this year. I mean I had a
4:40
Speaker 1: decent amount on Minnesota. We know how that played out.
4:43
Speaker 1: And I even said it to Chad like, I don't
4:45
Speaker 1: know if it was you asking on amper on the show,
4:47
Speaker 1: but you're like, who's the biggest most money you've taken
4:49
Speaker 1: with your your your guys so far? And I was like,
4:51
Speaker 1: Green Bay has been one of the bigger bets, and
4:53
Speaker 1: I still went against it and paid for it. So um, Yeah,
4:57
Speaker 1: one of those weeks where if it was middlest reason,
5:00
Speaker 1: it would really get me down. But since it's the
5:01
Speaker 1: end of the year, I kind of quickly just turned
5:04
Speaker 1: around and already was onto the next week just because
5:06
Speaker 1: it's this is it, like this is crunch time. So
5:09
Speaker 1: it definitely stung Sunday night, but you know, on onto Monday,
5:13
Speaker 1: I was onto the next week. Yeah, you're right, I'm
5:16
Speaker 1: sort of so wrapped up in thinking about how we're
5:19
Speaker 1: managing this. I forgot to go through uh, and people
5:23
Speaker 1: want to hear suffer people like when we lose some
5:25
Speaker 1: of these. We lost the Foxhole, it was the Texans.
5:29
Speaker 1: We lost. Simon says it was the it was the Vikings.
5:34
Speaker 1: Unfortunately we don't know have an outcome on bills. That
5:38
Speaker 1: was the exact decision Big Balls with the Bucks. We
5:41
Speaker 1: were right there, um when you were going to give
5:43
Speaker 1: out Denver on that one, so like that was a
5:45
Speaker 1: can't miss. You were spot on with that one because
5:48
Speaker 1: you made a great argument for why the Bucks should
5:50
Speaker 1: be the big Balls and we won that one. I
5:53
Speaker 1: had in scootrow Let you had the jets ide the
5:55
Speaker 1: broncos Um I think. I mean we're all tied in
5:59
Speaker 1: scootra Let head in the final week chat. Oh my god,
6:01
Speaker 1: I think. And yeah, like, um uh, we got suckered
6:07
Speaker 1: in on the seat on the closing line value. We've
6:09
Speaker 1: been so smart about it all year and have not
6:11
Speaker 1: let that dictate. Was pissed and the fans are giving
6:14
Speaker 1: me ship and I was so well deserved. They were like,
6:17
Speaker 1: they're like, what are you guys doing. You guys should
6:19
Speaker 1: be playing on the other side doing game theory, and
6:21
Speaker 1: I was like, fuck, they're right. So yeah, we did
6:24
Speaker 1: it with the Cowboys and it paid off. But then
6:26
Speaker 1: we been on San Francisco, we've been on Atlanta, which
6:28
Speaker 1: we didn't like all week and like didn't even touch it.
6:31
Speaker 1: I didn't think about it, just played it because those
6:33
Speaker 1: three points of value, and we like we actually said
6:36
Speaker 1: to each other, what about the Saints? We like the Saints,
6:39
Speaker 1: and then the Saints Like it was never in doubt,
6:42
Speaker 1: so it wasn't doubt for one second. Then the pick
6:44
Speaker 1: six happened. You go, that's why, that's why you took
6:46
Speaker 1: the Saints. There min she was eventually going to shoot
6:48
Speaker 1: himself on the foot and he did. So yeah, that
6:50
Speaker 1: Saints one. No, the Dever one will forever haunt me though,
6:54
Speaker 1: because you were just spot on with the saying of Mahomes.
6:57
Speaker 1: He just doesn't cover those big spreads. It's if it's
7:00
Speaker 1: not as if he's board. It's just one of those
7:02
Speaker 1: things where it's like they just play teams close. Um.
7:05
Speaker 1: So yeah, one of those weeks where we we had
7:09
Speaker 1: it sitting there three and two, four and one and
7:12
Speaker 1: got two cute, what's our current place? I'd have to look.
7:17
Speaker 1: I think we're what fifty and thirty, so I'm guessing
7:21
Speaker 1: we're still in the top. Probably fell at the top
7:24
Speaker 1: top fifty last week. Yeah, which is good though because
7:28
Speaker 1: a lot of people are going to use their five
7:30
Speaker 1: by so we should get a nice bump if we
7:31
Speaker 1: have a good week. Which the year we finished top
7:34
Speaker 1: twenty chat we did the impossible in five minute in
7:36
Speaker 1: the final week, so we need we need more of
7:38
Speaker 1: that magic. Alright, Well, we gotta Chiefs Raiders game going
7:41
Speaker 1: on right now, and the Raiders are looks like decent
7:46
Speaker 1: size favorites at home. The Jared's did hims against the
7:51
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. Interesting game, Interesting idea that the Chiefs
7:55
Speaker 1: are this big a favorite on the road, uh seven
7:58
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at handul on the road
8:01
Speaker 1: at Las Vegas. And honestly, if it was anybody else
8:05
Speaker 1: other than Las Vegas with Jared's did him off of
8:08
Speaker 1: the game, that will never get better for him. I'd
8:12
Speaker 1: probably take the Raiders, but probably wants to bet on
8:16
Speaker 1: the Chiefs here. Yeah, they're probably sucking me and give
8:19
Speaker 1: me a seven half of the Raiders, but I'm gonna
8:22
Speaker 1: take it. Um, But this is one. Maybe we'll know
8:25
Speaker 1: more on Thursday. But as we sit here now. My
8:28
Speaker 1: view it is, Yeah, the Chiefs are gonna play hard.
8:30
Speaker 1: The Raiders are gonna play hard. It's divisional game. Raiders
8:33
Speaker 1: tend to play them close. But like you just said, Chad,
8:35
Speaker 1: we just now I've been on a quarterback coming off
8:37
Speaker 1: the game of his life. Um, who's a notorious backup?
8:40
Speaker 1: It's not not ideal. Um, So for me, I don't know.
8:44
Speaker 1: I just I just can't see this being on our five.
8:46
Speaker 1: So I could easily not not put that much on
8:49
Speaker 1: this one. Uh yeah, I don't see it, um being
8:54
Speaker 1: one that we we get committed to. The Titans also
8:59
Speaker 1: on side day. These these first few games were on Saturday,
9:02
Speaker 1: Titans at the Jaguars, So we know Josh Dobbs is
9:06
Speaker 1: starting the Jaguars under a touchdown right now six and
9:10
Speaker 1: a half. We know suckers we and no soccers. We
9:16
Speaker 1: we have to take the Titans and when we love
9:18
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. There literally our team. They're looking like one
9:21
Speaker 1: of the best teams on football right now. I mean
9:23
Speaker 1: they are steam rolling teams offensively and defensively. They I
9:27
Speaker 1: mean Doug Peterson has it rolling. Um. I feel like
9:30
Speaker 1: a proud father, Chad, Like this is when we're definitely
9:32
Speaker 1: gonna dive into on Thursday, because this was a team
9:36
Speaker 1: talked about all summer and probably my hardest troll team
9:40
Speaker 1: of the season. I mean, never ending amount of dudes
9:44
Speaker 1: just talking ship about our love for the Jaguars, being like,
9:47
Speaker 1: how could you give them out Super Bowl futures? How
9:49
Speaker 1: could you give out their division? And I had to
9:52
Speaker 1: eat it. There were two and six and I literally
9:54
Speaker 1: looked at the clown paint makeup on so um, this
9:59
Speaker 1: all stands between m and when in this division? Now
10:01
Speaker 1: is then being a six and a half point favorite
10:04
Speaker 1: against a I don't know second third string quarterback exactly
10:09
Speaker 1: when me and take the Titans and the Titans somehow
10:11
Speaker 1: pull up some miracle ups. I do think the Jaguars
10:14
Speaker 1: will win, but I think this comes down to a
10:16
Speaker 1: last second possession. So six and a half we'll take
10:20
Speaker 1: the number. I mean, every one in the world's gonna
10:22
Speaker 1: have this team teased money line parlay. There will be
10:25
Speaker 1: on the six and a half because under seven with
10:27
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, so um, this will usually this usually one
10:30
Speaker 1: of those games the books clean up on. It's a
10:31
Speaker 1: Saturday night standalone game. The public will come in heavy
10:35
Speaker 1: on the home favorite. The pros will take the dog
10:38
Speaker 1: divisionally in this game, especially six and a half. This
10:41
Speaker 1: line is moving, by the way, because right now it's
10:44
Speaker 1: plus six and a half minus one fifteen plus six
10:49
Speaker 1: and a half minus one oh five. Should we make
10:51
Speaker 1: a foxhol it feels like we have to yea or
10:55
Speaker 1: it feels more like a Simon says some Time says it,
10:59
Speaker 1: Someona says at it right now because yeah, it doesn't
11:05
Speaker 1: hit the same. We don't have wild listeners. I'll be honest,
11:08
Speaker 1: it's a little different. That's changed the dynamic a little
11:12
Speaker 1: bit for the better. I think, um uh yeah, I
11:17
Speaker 1: think I agree with you right now. By the way,
11:19
Speaker 1: I know it's still very early. Uh not a lot
11:22
Speaker 1: of bets on any of these games, but the money
11:27
Speaker 1: on the Tennessee Titans, and that's just to me, seems
11:30
Speaker 1: like just pros like that. Pro money comes in early
11:32
Speaker 1: in the week. The public's happenly to sit back and
11:35
Speaker 1: then bet the game on set Sunday morning, you know, yeah,
11:38
Speaker 1: um alright, So the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Chicago Bears.
11:44
Speaker 1: There was a run where I thought the Bears, we're
11:47
Speaker 1: a pretty good covering team, and you were getting value
11:50
Speaker 1: on them, and then this past week, you know, they
11:52
Speaker 1: get blown out one to ten. I love them at
11:54
Speaker 1: plus six. I feel less enthusiastic about the Bear is
12:00
Speaker 1: at plus five and a half at home against the Vikings.
12:04
Speaker 1: I will say, I said to my kid the other day,
12:09
Speaker 1: I think the Bear is gonna win the Super Bowl
12:10
Speaker 1: in the next five years. Yeah, it's hard to say,
12:15
Speaker 1: just because you have to hit the draft right. But
12:17
Speaker 1: I love all the not the rumors flying out there,
12:21
Speaker 1: but the Bay, the trade machines flying of Like, Okay,
12:25
Speaker 1: Bears give up their top pick in this year's draft,
12:28
Speaker 1: just straight up for Johnt Damas or whatever they're doing
12:29
Speaker 1: gona do to just get him a receiver. Um, I'm
12:32
Speaker 1: with it, Like justin fields, that's what that's what your
12:34
Speaker 1: dream is right now, Jo just building around him. But
12:38
Speaker 1: if you can, if they can fix the defense in
12:40
Speaker 1: two to three years, yeah, you guys are gonna be
12:42
Speaker 1: incredibly good. But in this game, like you're saying, what
12:45
Speaker 1: the hell do we do here? The value is all
12:47
Speaker 1: over Chicago. I think the line's up to five and
12:49
Speaker 1: a half. It's Kirk Cousins outdoors. We've just seen a
12:53
Speaker 1: difference with this Minnesota team outdoors, they just they've they've
12:57
Speaker 1: been the games they've won this year outdoors, it's always
12:59
Speaker 1: those cloths games like a game they barely drag out
13:02
Speaker 1: and win. And we're getting a good number here the Bears.
13:06
Speaker 1: If this was just four weeks ago, me and Chad
13:09
Speaker 1: would guaranteed have this one in our contest because we
13:13
Speaker 1: just love this Bears team we have. But like you
13:15
Speaker 1: just said, their defense, I don't want to say they've
13:19
Speaker 1: put Chad, but we've seen these second half of them
13:21
Speaker 1: just getting blown out, like it's multiple games now that
13:24
Speaker 1: their defense in the second half just absolutely blown out.
13:26
Speaker 1: So unfortunately, contest, we can't play Bears first half, which
13:30
Speaker 1: to me is the move now with the Bears, it
13:32
Speaker 1: just seems like that's what you want to play. So
13:34
Speaker 1: I'll take it first half, but for full game, I'm
13:36
Speaker 1: just gonna stay away. So I most books right now,
13:38
Speaker 1: I've been able to get three and a half on
13:40
Speaker 1: them first half. That to me is the move of
13:42
Speaker 1: the Bears this week. Fields run for one fifty in
13:45
Speaker 1: the first quarter again, break the record, sit out the
13:48
Speaker 1: rest of the game. I think every Bears fan just
13:50
Speaker 1: wants that exact scenario. You've been playing a lot of
13:53
Speaker 1: first halfs. I've been seeing you pop them into the
13:55
Speaker 1: Action network gap. Uh. That's been a nice little play
13:58
Speaker 1: that I don't always take advantage of. Yeah, especially when
14:01
Speaker 1: there's teams like the Colts where you just ride those
14:03
Speaker 1: trends of that fading them. I've just been fading the
14:05
Speaker 1: Colts first half and then that fourth quarter. Bet Like,
14:08
Speaker 1: I think they haven't covered a fourth quarter. Maybe they'd
14:10
Speaker 1: have to have Evan look into it, but it might
14:12
Speaker 1: have been like two covers of a fourth quarter of
14:14
Speaker 1: this year. Um, and since that Vikings meltdown, they've had none. Um.
14:18
Speaker 1: A little foreshadowing though, That's a team I might love
14:20
Speaker 1: this week. Oh boy, Yeah, that's the next game? Is uh?
14:27
Speaker 1: The Colts? Right now, we're looking at them as two
14:31
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home against the Houston Texans.
14:37
Speaker 1: What are we gonna do? What are we gonna do
14:39
Speaker 1: this one? Because everything in my body is screaming Colts
14:42
Speaker 1: at home against a team tanking for their first pick. Likes.
14:47
Speaker 1: Is Saturday smart enough to tank this game? I don't
14:49
Speaker 1: think he is, because that's the move here. This is
14:51
Speaker 1: a divisional game, the culture playing for nothing? They would
14:55
Speaker 1: they should love to tank this game and make Houston
14:57
Speaker 1: not have the number one pick, but I don't see
15:00
Speaker 1: it happened. So this is a lot of game theory
15:03
Speaker 1: playing here with these two teams and these gms and
15:06
Speaker 1: everyone matching up here where it's like, I think the
15:08
Speaker 1: Cults are really dumb and they're gonna try really hard
15:11
Speaker 1: where the Texans I can already see it now. They're
15:13
Speaker 1: gonna rest a couple of guys. I feel like that's
15:15
Speaker 1: gonna be something that's gonna happen you. We're gonna see
15:17
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys pop up with our injury reports.
15:18
Speaker 1: So um, right now it's supposed to be Sam Ellinger
15:22
Speaker 1: being the quarterback here. Um, that's the only reason I'm
15:26
Speaker 1: making this. Matt Ryan is the backup. I think Saturday
15:29
Speaker 1: announced it today right, So to me, if we're betting this,
15:33
Speaker 1: the hope is kid Layson Negg. In the first quarter,
15:35
Speaker 1: they bring in Matt Ryan and he tries as hard
15:38
Speaker 1: as he can just win one last game before he
15:41
Speaker 1: heads off after just I mean, we talked about the
15:44
Speaker 1: last time he played was the greatest coming back in
15:46
Speaker 1: NFL history. I just think he wants to erase that.
15:48
Speaker 1: So it's just all line up here. I know for
15:51
Speaker 1: a fact a bunch of pros are gonna be on
15:53
Speaker 1: the colts with me, because it's just what I talked
15:55
Speaker 1: to that last week chat. I full unbelieve they had quit,
15:57
Speaker 1: and that looked like a team that quit against the Giant, right,
16:00
Speaker 1: I mean, that looks like a team that fully given up.
16:03
Speaker 1: I have to come back on the other side though,
16:05
Speaker 1: where it's the last week of the year. We've seen
16:07
Speaker 1: these teams that look like they're dead just for that
16:09
Speaker 1: one week. I mean, you've read that stat last week
16:12
Speaker 1: about these teams that are playing for nothing for some reason,
16:15
Speaker 1: show up. This is this is just one of those
16:19
Speaker 1: games where I I normally would take Houston here, especially
16:22
Speaker 1: if you got the plus three. But I'm looking at
16:25
Speaker 1: it where that's what the book's gonna trap people with.
16:27
Speaker 1: People are just gonna bet this plus three because it's
16:29
Speaker 1: gonna be this cold team. I mean, who's gonna be
16:32
Speaker 1: taking the Monastery. It feels like the Bucks last week.
16:34
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna make this, my Simon says. But
16:37
Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I've already bet the
16:38
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I just can't help myself.
16:40
Speaker 1: Oh wow, Well, Hey, Simon says, right now, is the
16:43
Speaker 1: Titans plus six and a half? All right? But uh,
16:48
Speaker 1: I don't know. Man might not be smart enough to
16:53
Speaker 1: to tank this game. But lovely Smith, and it's not
16:59
Speaker 1: about smart enough. I just don't think he plays it
17:02
Speaker 1: that way. No, I think I think Levy is gonna
17:07
Speaker 1: keep on trying. But I just is it impossible now
17:13
Speaker 1: for the Bears to get the number one pick because
17:14
Speaker 1: the Houston has that tie? Well, I don't think so.
17:21
Speaker 1: I read something today where it was not inconceivable that
17:25
Speaker 1: the Bears could still get the number one pick, So
17:28
Speaker 1: maybe that plays into it too, But I just, yeah,
17:31
Speaker 1: it's I feel like it was gonna be hard for
17:33
Speaker 1: me to convince you, but we'll see. Like sand this
17:34
Speaker 1: line moved all the way up to minus four and
17:36
Speaker 1: you knew all the pros were just slamming the Colts.
17:38
Speaker 1: I mean, that's good, that's great value. If it's minus
17:41
Speaker 1: two and a half in the contest, it's kind of
17:43
Speaker 1: like the books. Like I just said, it's just it's
17:45
Speaker 1: a it's a good spot to take a team that
17:47
Speaker 1: is just dead right now. So now we're talking about
17:49
Speaker 1: closing line value and the contest again, just the fact
17:54
Speaker 1: that it's minus two and a half of me wants
17:56
Speaker 1: shame on me. No for me, shame on you for
18:01
Speaker 1: me twice, shame on me. Um. The next game, the
18:05
Speaker 1: next game on the board is the Bengals and the Ravens,
18:08
Speaker 1: and the Bengals are six and a half point favorites.
18:10
Speaker 1: I think we gotta skip it. We just don't know
18:12
Speaker 1: enough about um circumstances for the game and what the
18:17
Speaker 1: what what it's gonna mean. Well, I was gonna love
18:21
Speaker 1: the Bengals here just because it was gonna lamar coming
18:23
Speaker 1: off extended rest, going up against a really good defense,
18:26
Speaker 1: like the Bengals are a good defense, it's fair to
18:28
Speaker 1: say at this point like they played pretty well all year.
18:32
Speaker 1: There was a lot of points though, so it was
18:34
Speaker 1: one of those where Phils seven I would have been
18:36
Speaker 1: on the Ravens and six and a half. Right now,
18:38
Speaker 1: I'll take the Bengals. But like Chad just said, well
18:41
Speaker 1: wait later in the week to beout this one. We
18:43
Speaker 1: don't mean more clarity before I put money on it. Yeah,
18:45
Speaker 1: well we'll see if we get some updates by Thursday.
18:48
Speaker 1: Um Jets Dolphins Dolphins now one point favorites. I mean
18:54
Speaker 1: one point underdogs on the road. Boy, that's office game
19:00
Speaker 1: played out exactly the way we said it would last
19:03
Speaker 1: week it was two and a half. We liked the
19:06
Speaker 1: Dolphins a two and a half. Even with Teddy Bridgewater out,
19:11
Speaker 1: they still find a way to backdoor that game. The
19:14
Speaker 1: pictures are just a terrible team. Um, but do we
19:20
Speaker 1: think and and I think I think Mike White as
19:24
Speaker 1: everybody's savior that kind of got you know, he got
19:30
Speaker 1: revealed the other day. So Skyler Thompson against Mike White,
19:39
Speaker 1: Oh gross. Yeah. And the that that's the craziest thing too,
19:43
Speaker 1: with Teddy covers as a dog where even when he's
19:45
Speaker 1: not a game, he still covers that line. Um, I
19:49
Speaker 1: don't have to do here, chat. I feel like the
19:51
Speaker 1: same thing where I got sucked in last week in Seattle.
19:53
Speaker 1: You take the better defense where it's the Jets by far,
19:57
Speaker 1: and I couldn't believe they blew that game where like
20:00
Speaker 1: Caft did nothing, like they shut him down, Saw shut
20:02
Speaker 1: him down the whole game. But Mike White just on
20:05
Speaker 1: those fourth downs and everything the red zone, he just
20:07
Speaker 1: couldn't get it done. Um, I'm not sure what to
20:11
Speaker 1: do with this one. Like if it was Teddy Bridgewater
20:15
Speaker 1: under three at home. I'd be all over this Miami team. Um,
20:19
Speaker 1: but as it stands right now, no clue those are
20:23
Speaker 1: not the circumstances we've been given in any way. We
20:28
Speaker 1: don't know. It's definitely not Ted Teddy Bridgewater under three
20:31
Speaker 1: at home. It could be Skylo Thompson is a favorite,
20:36
Speaker 1: right and so to me, I just I just passed
20:38
Speaker 1: on that. Uh. Panthers who had a real chance. Where
20:43
Speaker 1: did they have a chance? And they were making me
20:46
Speaker 1: really nervous against the box with two times having ten
20:51
Speaker 1: point leads, um, and yet they found a way. Sam Donald,
20:58
Speaker 1: he's Sam Donald, you know what I mean. Yeah, he
21:02
Speaker 1: did what we needed him to do. Tom Brady came
21:04
Speaker 1: back into Tom Brady form. Uh, they covered going away
21:11
Speaker 1: against the Saints team that did exactly what we needed
21:13
Speaker 1: them to do. Their defense played great, they had to
21:17
Speaker 1: pick six. Um. I mean, the Panthers are planning the Saints.
21:25
Speaker 1: So Saints or three and a half point favorites. The
21:34
Speaker 1: are you thinking Panthers? And I think in Panthers that's
21:39
Speaker 1: my issue, that's my issue where it just feels like
21:41
Speaker 1: it's the same thing as last week where they're they're
21:43
Speaker 1: gonna they're trying to suck in the Panther's line value.
21:46
Speaker 1: I mean they were all up, they went all up
21:48
Speaker 1: to plus four on Sunday, and those people are feeling
21:52
Speaker 1: like geniuses for I don't know, the entire game. I mean,
21:57
Speaker 1: that was just a classic. The books knew exactly what
22:00
Speaker 1: they're doing. And when you take a step back, it's
22:03
Speaker 1: always funny where it's before the game, there's always that
22:06
Speaker 1: nervous but then afterwards you go, well, of course at
22:09
Speaker 1: home game Brady against Sam Donald for the Division, you
22:14
Speaker 1: just always take Brady there. And that's just one of
22:16
Speaker 1: those sitch scenarios of Brady. He's that guy, like he's
22:21
Speaker 1: that guy. We've seen it the whole time where they
22:23
Speaker 1: were dead in that game. I mean, what were they
22:25
Speaker 1: down fourteen nothing at one point and big played to
22:29
Speaker 1: uh Mike Evans, which we talked about their secondary in Carolina,
22:33
Speaker 1: and then sure enough later in that quarter, big play
22:35
Speaker 1: to Mike Evans again, and then what do you know,
22:38
Speaker 1: late in the third quarter, a big play to Mike Evans.
22:40
Speaker 1: It just felt like not that they flipped back to
22:43
Speaker 1: that old, you know, super Bowl winning style, but that's
22:47
Speaker 1: how they won, right. They took big shots and that
22:49
Speaker 1: hadn't been there all year. So not only did we
22:51
Speaker 1: get crazy lucky with that Buccaneers game, but we kind
22:55
Speaker 1: of nailed it to a tea exactly how it's gonna go.
22:57
Speaker 1: Where it was just gonna be the game. We're gonna
22:58
Speaker 1: tack Caroline of secondary. So in this matchup, do the
23:02
Speaker 1: Saints have Mike Evans to attack that secondary of Carolina?
23:06
Speaker 1: So we kind of erased that right there. So there's nothing.
23:08
Speaker 1: There's not that for the Saints. They don't have some
23:10
Speaker 1: big play, so we're back to yeah, right, we got
23:16
Speaker 1: any Dulton now. Um, So that's why I like, I'm
23:19
Speaker 1: not gonna be as confident in the Saints this week,
23:21
Speaker 1: but I will Paul, is not that Carolina. I want
23:24
Speaker 1: to hear what the pros are doing this one because
23:26
Speaker 1: I'm right there with Chat. My initial instinct is Carolina
23:29
Speaker 1: strength is against the run. That's how the Saints win games.
23:32
Speaker 1: I mean the Eagles not they did nothing, but it
23:37
Speaker 1: was thirteen nothing. The Eagles had a touchdown called back
23:40
Speaker 1: on like a b S holding call that would have
23:43
Speaker 1: flipped the game because if the Eagles were scored there
23:45
Speaker 1: and scored again, it would have been fourteen thirteen. That
23:47
Speaker 1: would have changed the Saints. The Saints would have started
23:49
Speaker 1: to pass the ball because in that game, honestly, the
23:52
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill thing, it's like, that's that's the team, the
23:55
Speaker 1: thing that gets that offensive going sometimes where they can't
23:57
Speaker 1: move the ball, so you bring him in, takeing Andy
24:00
Speaker 1: off the field. Tyson can move the ball. So in
24:04
Speaker 1: this matchup, Chat, I feel like it's a grinded out
24:06
Speaker 1: the visional Game Week eighteen, I feel like I'm right
24:09
Speaker 1: there with you on the Panthers. I just I don't
24:11
Speaker 1: want to tell people to bet it yet and better
24:12
Speaker 1: right now because I don't hear what the pros you're
24:13
Speaker 1: doing with it, because it feels too good to be true.
24:16
Speaker 1: I don't get why this number is not three. I
24:18
Speaker 1: make this number three. I'm seeing three apps everywhere. So
24:22
Speaker 1: it's a little fishy this long. It's it stinks, it's our,
24:26
Speaker 1: it's our Alaskan bury the fish in the in the ground,
24:31
Speaker 1: take it out, six months, eat it line. God, I'm
24:36
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. So the next game Patriots
26:42
Speaker 1: Bills again, I'm hesitant to dive into it for all
26:48
Speaker 1: the circumstances, both off the field and not really knowing
26:52
Speaker 1: what's being played for at this point. So let's let's
26:56
Speaker 1: hope that we can talk a little bit more deeply
26:57
Speaker 1: about it. I can almost guarantee will be on the Patriots.
27:00
Speaker 1: We will be the only people betting them this week.
27:01
Speaker 1: But yeah, we'll just wait and see what this number
27:03
Speaker 1: ends up. Too early in the week to talk about it.
27:07
Speaker 1: Brown's visiting the Steelers Cleveland plus two and a half. Yeah, exactly,
27:13
Speaker 1: like me and Chad don't have a choice. We have
27:16
Speaker 1: to take Cleveland. They're playing for nothing. Pittsburgh's playing for everything.
27:20
Speaker 1: They always lose this game. Already cashed my over tickets
27:23
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. I literally feel satisfied for this season. We
27:26
Speaker 1: believed in Tomlin and this rag tag team. We hit
27:29
Speaker 1: the over of the seven and a half. This they
27:31
Speaker 1: cannot win this game. They almost always lose this game,
27:34
Speaker 1: especially when it's the Browns, who they've been a corpse.
27:37
Speaker 1: I mean, even against Washington, it wasn't DeShawn Watson that
27:39
Speaker 1: really did anything in that game. It was kind of
27:41
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz just kept turning the ball over, giving them
27:43
Speaker 1: short fields. So you know what, I almost I disagree
27:46
Speaker 1: with you. DeShawn Watson, I thought played really really well
27:51
Speaker 1: and had a lot of really good throws, especially to
27:54
Speaker 1: Maria Cooper, like he just like it looked like DeShawn
27:57
Speaker 1: Watson used to look. It was like a mari though
28:00
Speaker 1: Mary made a couple of huge plays himself. But I'll
28:02
Speaker 1: agree with that he he hasn't been as bad as
28:04
Speaker 1: he looked. I'll give him that Watson, which was terrible,
28:07
Speaker 1: Like he looked completely lost. So yeah, just like last week,
28:11
Speaker 1: that Cleveland line stinked against Washington. I mean it moved
28:13
Speaker 1: down to one one and a half throw A really
28:17
Speaker 1: smart group came in heavy on Washington. It was shot
28:19
Speaker 1: at all up to two and a half before kick,
28:21
Speaker 1: and I mean that game was never in doubt for
28:24
Speaker 1: the Browns. So this, this line does not make sense.
28:28
Speaker 1: I made this line minus three. The books know what
28:31
Speaker 1: they're doing, like making this two and a half. Everyone's
28:34
Speaker 1: going to be taking Pittsburgh like they think they're the
28:37
Speaker 1: ones that care because they're playing for something. And Chad,
28:39
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have the stat handy, but
28:41
Speaker 1: it's just that's all. You kind of fade the team
28:43
Speaker 1: that needs this game in the spot. Well yeah you do. Um. Also,
28:47
Speaker 1: by the way, I'm an idiot, Deshaun Watson. I watched
28:51
Speaker 1: the game. I must only remember the good throws he
28:54
Speaker 1: made to Marto Cooper, which were like four or five.
28:57
Speaker 1: I was nine of eighteen in the game. So it
29:00
Speaker 1: wasn't he wasn't that good. I'll say it's so late
29:04
Speaker 1: where I was like, maybe Chad's right. I could have
29:06
Speaker 1: sworn he played like that was very classic. The stat
29:11
Speaker 1: you're talking about is eliminated teams in the final two
29:15
Speaker 1: weeks of the season playing teams that need to win
29:19
Speaker 1: cover at a st clip the past thirty two years,
29:23
Speaker 1: a sample size of more than a hundred and fifty games.
29:25
Speaker 1: So add the Browns to our list of Panthers and
29:30
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Patriots of teams that we will
29:32
Speaker 1: definitely be spending our last weekend at the NFL season
29:35
Speaker 1: trying to get the higher of the money betting on.
29:38
Speaker 1: I mean to me that that's either big balls or
29:40
Speaker 1: a foxhole, because even the more you just talked about
29:42
Speaker 1: it just sounds I think as I was talking about it,
29:45
Speaker 1: to start to feel like it's either it's either the
29:48
Speaker 1: Patriots or the Browns. And we've been talking doing foxhol
29:52
Speaker 1: on Tuesdays. I feel more comfortable with the Browns. Uh,
29:55
Speaker 1: it's not my exact decision. I have my exact division
29:58
Speaker 1: picked out. Um, so let's make the Browns the foxhol
30:01
Speaker 1: love it. We got Tennessee and the Browns right now.
30:04
Speaker 1: This is this is week eighteen at his finest alright,
30:08
Speaker 1: so look I played that stat last week. It burned
30:11
Speaker 1: me with the Rams, burn me with the Colts, and
30:15
Speaker 1: that the Rams this week on the road six and
30:17
Speaker 1: a half at Seattle. I have to do it. I
30:21
Speaker 1: have to do it. They just got blown out, Chad,
30:24
Speaker 1: Seattle just blew up one big at home. We have
30:28
Speaker 1: to do it. No brainer. This line Shreek be four
30:30
Speaker 1: and a half, make it four and a half getting
30:32
Speaker 1: two free points here. Um, just one of the few
30:36
Speaker 1: bets I bet right away when it came out. I
30:39
Speaker 1: was with you that. You know, Shawks. Not that it's
30:45
Speaker 1: my favorite story this year, but it's definitely up there,
30:47
Speaker 1: Like this whole thing with Gino Redemption. They fell off
30:51
Speaker 1: a cliff and they're still in it now in this
30:53
Speaker 1: final week. It's it's a crazy fun story. We have
30:57
Speaker 1: to take the value of it, Like we're getting free
30:59
Speaker 1: points here because human element of that. People just taking
31:01
Speaker 1: them because of that story. So another team that would
31:04
Speaker 1: be heavily teased money line bet this week, see Seahawks. Um,
31:08
Speaker 1: they have everything to play for. Rams have nothing to
31:10
Speaker 1: play for. We love the Rams, like it's so early,
31:14
Speaker 1: but all the bets and all the money is on
31:16
Speaker 1: the Rams. I was hoping this might go a little
31:19
Speaker 1: bit bigger, I mean a little bit higher. Yeah, I
31:22
Speaker 1: still think. I still think it's pro money though, because
31:24
Speaker 1: it's that it's so late in the year. I feel
31:26
Speaker 1: like that's who's betting early in the week. Where um
31:29
Speaker 1: that that tends to slaying it? Where you know, come
31:32
Speaker 1: Thursday Friday, I bet you the line shifts more fifty
31:35
Speaker 1: fifty or more towards the Seahawks. So do we wait
31:39
Speaker 1: for seven? We tell people to wait for seven? Yeah, yeah,
31:42
Speaker 1: definitely I would. I would wait for seven. Even if
31:44
Speaker 1: it moves the six, I wouldn't pay it because I
31:46
Speaker 1: do think it could get bumped back up. All right,
31:50
Speaker 1: I did because I was about to bet it. But
31:51
Speaker 1: I think I want to wait until it gets to
31:52
Speaker 1: seven because I think it will. Yeah, let's see. But
31:58
Speaker 1: I agree. So now, all of a sudden, we love
32:01
Speaker 1: the Rams, the Browns, the Panthers, the Titans, and the Patriots. Yeah.
32:05
Speaker 1: I like a lot of games this week, and all
32:08
Speaker 1: of a sudden love the whole board, and we haven't
32:10
Speaker 1: even gotten to the game that I love the most.
32:13
Speaker 1: That is my executive decision. The Denver Broncos plus three
32:18
Speaker 1: and a half at home against the Titans. What are
32:22
Speaker 1: we gonna I mean against the Chargers? What are we
32:24
Speaker 1: gonna do here? The Chargers on the road as favorites
32:28
Speaker 1: with nothing to play for. Yeah, and a team that
32:33
Speaker 1: this This is probably the wrong time to back Russ
32:37
Speaker 1: after playing such a good game, but it does feel
32:39
Speaker 1: like that's the rare instance of the got rid of
32:41
Speaker 1: the coach. The teammates all stuck up for him last
32:45
Speaker 1: week all over the internet, and then he spoke about
32:47
Speaker 1: how much that meant to him, and that was kind
32:49
Speaker 1: of a rallying cry for that team. How can we
32:51
Speaker 1: not It's a team that's trying to finish on a
32:53
Speaker 1: good note after abysmal year against a team that, like
32:56
Speaker 1: Chad just said, we expect them the rest starters. So
33:00
Speaker 1: I've actually grabbed the three and a half just in
33:01
Speaker 1: case that comes out, where the word gets out that
33:04
Speaker 1: Herbert's gonna play only their first half or he's not
33:07
Speaker 1: gonna play at all, because I could see this line
33:09
Speaker 1: moving back to a pick if it comes out that
33:11
Speaker 1: he's not playing. So, uh, yeah, it makes sense. You
33:16
Speaker 1: love this game. It's just a good number and a
33:17
Speaker 1: good spot for this Denver team. It's already moving, it's
33:21
Speaker 1: already moving fan duel and a minute ago it was
33:25
Speaker 1: at three and a half and now it's down to three. Yeah,
33:31
Speaker 1: you know, can you shop it around? That's what happens.
33:36
Speaker 1: But I still love it. I'm I'm giving myself the
33:39
Speaker 1: three and a half. Uh, That's what I'm saying. It's
33:44
Speaker 1: technically you would have had it if we've done it
33:46
Speaker 1: earlier in the day, if we dine earlier the day.
33:48
Speaker 1: I definitely I'll give you that. Now, we've got a
33:51
Speaker 1: Giants team that may rest guys against an Eagles team
33:55
Speaker 1: that still has a chance, that needs to win the clinch,
33:59
Speaker 1: and the Eagles are decent size favorites. We're talking about
34:01
Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? Favorites? How do you
34:05
Speaker 1: do with that? Cannot wait to have this money line
34:09
Speaker 1: in our round robin this week. I'm not touching the spread,
34:14
Speaker 1: but I will be all over that Giants money. The
34:16
Speaker 1: line playing spoiler in this game. I love it. I
34:19
Speaker 1: love this whole thing of Hurts is gonna come back
34:23
Speaker 1: now and that's gonna be the reason the Eagles are
34:25
Speaker 1: gonna win this game and lock up. And the spreads
34:28
Speaker 1: so huge. Um. The public will be all over this.
34:31
Speaker 1: The public. Everyone's gonna bet in this four team with
34:33
Speaker 1: this Giants team, and I think they should. It's like
34:36
Speaker 1: a massive number, um, But we have no idea what's
34:41
Speaker 1: gonna happen here. Like that. Their head coach, he's no dummy,
34:44
Speaker 1: he's smart. He knows they're probably gonna match up with
34:47
Speaker 1: this Eagles team in the playoffs, So I highly doubt
34:50
Speaker 1: he'll show anything. Could get a team that comes out
34:53
Speaker 1: completely flat, that does nothing. So you're you're risking your
34:56
Speaker 1: own money if you're gonna take them on the spread here,
34:58
Speaker 1: But it probably is what the help was gonna do. Um,
35:01
Speaker 1: I'll just take the money line. It's just a fun
35:03
Speaker 1: spoiler game of divisional arrival. The guy comes back and
35:08
Speaker 1: he's rusty and hurts, but we all agree if he
35:10
Speaker 1: was back against that Saints team, they blow them out.
35:13
Speaker 1: I mean the Saints only a thirteen points. I think
35:15
Speaker 1: any Dalton got sacked UM like eight times. So it's
35:19
Speaker 1: just one of those where I agreed with people. I
35:22
Speaker 1: did think Mahomes was the m v P this year.
35:24
Speaker 1: I mean what he did without Tyr Hill is incredible. Um,
35:28
Speaker 1: And we can all say the a f C is
35:30
Speaker 1: it's harder. I mean, it's just it's a harder conference
35:33
Speaker 1: this year. But we saw what mikex hurt so special.
35:36
Speaker 1: It's like you need to be able to make those throws,
35:40
Speaker 1: and not everyone can make those throws. That's why I
35:42
Speaker 1: feel like Hurts took such a big step this year.
35:44
Speaker 1: So um yeah, Like as an Eagles fan, one of
35:50
Speaker 1: the one of the darker times and our fandom of
35:53
Speaker 1: you know, Lane Johnson's out, everyone's just getting hurt on
35:56
Speaker 1: our team head into the playoffs. I'm not gonna lie.
35:59
Speaker 1: If Giants played their starters and this line was five,
36:02
Speaker 1: I would be terrified the Eagles would lose this game.
36:05
Speaker 1: It just it's the bad ju ju them losing three
36:07
Speaker 1: straight games and not getting the one seed. It could
36:10
Speaker 1: easily happen like the four nineers. We could wake up
36:13
Speaker 1: and Brock Purty could lead that team to a one seed. Um,
36:17
Speaker 1: it's a real possibility. But obviously Vegas doesn't think it's
36:21
Speaker 1: gonna happen. This line is fourteen. I'm just looking at
36:23
Speaker 1: the action app here. Chat. It's all the same thing.
36:25
Speaker 1: All the money, all the bets have poured in on
36:28
Speaker 1: the Giants that could just be pros, but I'm assuming
36:30
Speaker 1: it's public as well because that's just such a huge number. Well, look, uh,
36:36
Speaker 1: the team Eaters mentioned they're two touchdown favorites against the Cardinals.
36:44
Speaker 1: I might take the Cardinals in that game. I'm definitely
36:46
Speaker 1: taking them. It's like wed another game of I think
36:50
Speaker 1: we have to throw this in them money lying around Robin.
36:52
Speaker 1: It's just an inflated spread because one team has nothing
36:56
Speaker 1: to play for and one team does. The team the
36:59
Speaker 1: forty Niners just play for the number one seed. Fair argument.
37:03
Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna say they just had their stinker of a game, right,
37:06
Speaker 1: and now they'll get right against this horrible um Arizona
37:10
Speaker 1: team that just literally took Atlanta to the wire. Right.
37:13
Speaker 1: They just played a really close to themselves. So I
37:16
Speaker 1: don't know if this makes our contest. Who knows. May
37:18
Speaker 1: about change by Thursday, but as we sit here right now,
37:20
Speaker 1: it's just the fear is that four nineis defense at
37:27
Speaker 1: home in a in a tune up before the playoffs
37:30
Speaker 1: where they need to get right after laying such an
37:32
Speaker 1: egg the week before. We've been on them laying two
37:35
Speaker 1: eggs in a row chat, which I don't think they've
37:36
Speaker 1: done all season. But that that's a huge spread. I
37:40
Speaker 1: feel like this, we're literally getting four points of value
37:43
Speaker 1: here just because they're playing for the one seed in
37:45
Speaker 1: Arizona's playing for nothing. So um, I already bet it.
37:49
Speaker 1: I just I don't really know what to do with
37:51
Speaker 1: it because it is such a huge number. Uh. We're
37:56
Speaker 1: already like probably three teams into the money line round
38:00
Speaker 1: Robin Parlay. We know we're gonna do the cards. We
38:04
Speaker 1: know we're gonna do the Giants. I'm well going to
38:06
Speaker 1: bet we're gonna put the Browns in there. Yeah, and
38:10
Speaker 1: I feel like we might have to put Tennessee in. Oh.
38:13
Speaker 1: I don't want that to happen. Yeah, I know we
38:15
Speaker 1: love them, but look, ja Jaguars. We have so much
38:20
Speaker 1: tied up in the Jags winning the division. That one
38:25
Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about. I just mushed it. Uh. Listen,
38:31
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are on the road of the Commanders, and
38:34
Speaker 1: it's an interesting game because the Cowboys are five and
38:37
Speaker 1: a half point favorites the Commanders. Ron Rivera all of
38:40
Speaker 1: a sudden just became a train wreck, right, like, not
38:42
Speaker 1: understanding they could be eliminated, you know, back and forth
38:45
Speaker 1: between Heineke and Wentz if he really did go to
38:48
Speaker 1: bed for Wentz. Why earlier in the year before they
38:51
Speaker 1: signed him. Who sees Carson Wentz and says they think
38:54
Speaker 1: he's a good quarterback. It's so funny to me when
38:56
Speaker 1: coaches feel like they can go up there and say, well,
38:58
Speaker 1: we look at the film and he's better than you think.
39:00
Speaker 1: And everybody in the world has seen that he's not
39:02
Speaker 1: very good for three years now he's broken. So now
39:07
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are five and a half point favorites on
39:08
Speaker 1: the road, and I feel like I got to take
39:10
Speaker 1: the Commanders because it's too big of a number against
39:14
Speaker 1: the coach and Mike McCarthy that I don't think it's
39:16
Speaker 1: very good either. And it's a classic spot for the
39:18
Speaker 1: Cowboys to screw it up against the Commanders who've got
39:20
Speaker 1: nothing to play for. And as your friend, if it's
39:23
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, I can't let you do it. Cannot let
39:26
Speaker 1: you do it if it's Carson Wentz. But if it's Heineke,
39:28
Speaker 1: our guys back. No brainer. We take the Commanders here.
39:31
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a an easy bet, but was when
39:35
Speaker 1: we can't factor in the turnover rate like his turnover
39:39
Speaker 1: is so devastating to that team where if he if
39:41
Speaker 1: iinky just started this year for them, they are they
39:43
Speaker 1: would be in the playoffs. I mean, there's no doubt
39:45
Speaker 1: about that. So looking at this game, I'm surprise all
39:49
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets are coming on the Cowboys.
39:52
Speaker 1: So I want to take the Cowboys. If it's carsonal
39:55
Speaker 1: to even bet with the public here, if it was
39:57
Speaker 1: if it's Heineken, I know it's gonna be Hainicky. I
39:59
Speaker 1: love the Commanders in this spot. Like you just said,
40:01
Speaker 1: this is such a letdown spot for Dallas. Um, they're
40:05
Speaker 1: already looking ahead to the playoffs and they're thinking in
40:08
Speaker 1: the back of their mind. Not that I shouldn't say
40:11
Speaker 1: they're thinking about it, but that's that's a big deal.
40:14
Speaker 1: If their first game is going to Tampa and the
40:17
Speaker 1: opening start of the playoffs where Brady and his career
40:20
Speaker 1: has never lost two Dallas. I believe he's nine and
40:23
Speaker 1: in his career against Dallas and he beat them. It
40:26
Speaker 1: feels like legit a lifetime ago chat. But week one
40:30
Speaker 1: Brady beat them. He beat this defense. So um, I
40:34
Speaker 1: love to look ahead of that. There's just a lot
40:36
Speaker 1: of things here that point to me taking Commanders. So
40:39
Speaker 1: one I hadn't bet, just because I'm waiting to make
40:41
Speaker 1: sure it's heineke i just I refused to have money
40:44
Speaker 1: on wentz Um. I'll wait, I'll wait and see. You know,
40:47
Speaker 1: if it drops down a point, it's something a difference
40:49
Speaker 1: between five and a half of four and happen, It's
40:50
Speaker 1: not that big of a deal. So I'm fine with
40:52
Speaker 1: waiting to see who the quarterback is gonna be. Um Alright,
40:57
Speaker 1: last game on the board. Our favorite team in the NFL.
41:00
Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions are four and a half point underdogs
41:02
Speaker 1: to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, last game, last
41:08
Speaker 1: regular season game with the season. Give me the Detroit
41:12
Speaker 1: Lions for my lungs. I don't care what's going on
41:17
Speaker 1: in that situation. You will know at that point if
41:20
Speaker 1: they're playing for the playoffs, if they're playing to be spoilers.
41:24
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell is going to have this team ready to
41:27
Speaker 1: just screw with the Packers. Yeah, we don't have a
41:31
Speaker 1: choice here, and we have a couple of games as
41:33
Speaker 1: we we don't have a choice. This is another one
41:34
Speaker 1: of those we have no choice here where you can
41:37
Speaker 1: go back and listen to our final show before the
41:38
Speaker 1: season started. We love the Lions. We both had him
41:41
Speaker 1: making the playoffs, but I think we both had him
41:43
Speaker 1: as our seventh seed. Um, it's you're so smart. I
41:48
Speaker 1: completely forgot about that. Yeah, I just I look at
41:53
Speaker 1: this team as you know. Sure they're different outdoors, right,
41:59
Speaker 1: we saw them completely. They lay in the egg against
42:01
Speaker 1: Carolina when they went out doors after those back to
42:03
Speaker 1: back games against the Jets. I don't see an egg
42:05
Speaker 1: being laid here. I just can see Dan Cavill letting
42:08
Speaker 1: this team have an egg. Um, I can tell you
42:11
Speaker 1: right now, a really smart group came in on Green
42:13
Speaker 1: Bay and I think it's Uh, I did think. I
42:16
Speaker 1: honestly think it's a hedge because I just don't know
42:19
Speaker 1: why they would come in so heavy early in the
42:20
Speaker 1: week on Green Bay. Um, but the books respected it.
42:23
Speaker 1: They moved them from three and a half up to
42:25
Speaker 1: four and four and a half for a lot of books.
42:26
Speaker 1: So here, what's I'll hear the boys. You're saying, Chad,
42:30
Speaker 1: But I already bet it. I'm in on Detroit, so
42:32
Speaker 1: was here four and a half. I bet it. And
42:35
Speaker 1: you know it could be me stepping in it, letting
42:37
Speaker 1: the human side getting the way, and I gotta follow
42:38
Speaker 1: my model that my model is saying this line should
42:40
Speaker 1: be closer to six Green Bays on the team they
42:43
Speaker 1: were earlier in the year. Their defense is better, their
42:45
Speaker 1: offense is playing better. I get it. I just there's
42:49
Speaker 1: something about this Detroit team and I still believe in them.
42:51
Speaker 1: I believe they do make the playoffs. Um, I know
42:54
Speaker 1: that could be thwarted here with the Seahawks. That's another
42:57
Speaker 1: fun thing we can talk about Thursday. Maybe all the
42:59
Speaker 1: part ladies you can do for the playoff scenarios. But
43:02
Speaker 1: I love it. We love me and chat love the lines.
43:05
Speaker 1: I knew as soon as this game came out and
43:07
Speaker 1: do Chat and I we're gonna be on it. So
43:09
Speaker 1: as you sit here on Tuesday, I can almost Gatti
43:12
Speaker 1: will be one of our five unless I know that
43:14
Speaker 1: pros are all over. That's why we have the vikings
43:16
Speaker 1: in last week because like as much as I love
43:18
Speaker 1: that game, I knew these really smart players that were
43:21
Speaker 1: on it, so we didn't put it in. Maybe we'll
43:23
Speaker 1: get lucky this week and be on the right side
43:25
Speaker 1: of the lines. But it's it's crazy. These pros have
43:28
Speaker 1: just been back in Green Bay these last five weeks
43:30
Speaker 1: and it's been hitting for him. So um, they're they're
43:33
Speaker 1: on them. I mean, we'll be on the with the public.
43:35
Speaker 1: We'll be on the lines. For the love of Dan
43:38
Speaker 1: Campbell and all that is holy. If we don't put
43:42
Speaker 1: the lines in our final five, given this has been
43:46
Speaker 1: a Lions podcast all season since March, it's been a
43:50
Speaker 1: Lions podcast, it's only fitting that we put them in
43:53
Speaker 1: the final five. When we're getting that much of a
43:55
Speaker 1: good number. That's fair. It's it's hard to argue against that.
44:00
Speaker 1: So right now, Uh, that's the last game our five Titans, Lions, Browns,
44:10
Speaker 1: Patriots Rams. Um. Wow, that's ugly. That's ugly. We'll see,
44:24
Speaker 1: We'll see. Um boy boy, oh boy. Okay, I really
44:32
Speaker 1: do love all of those picks. Like last week I
44:35
Speaker 1: hated our picks. This week I love them. Oh so,
44:41
Speaker 1: last chance to go five and oh my friend, uh
44:44
Speaker 1: foxhole is the Browns. Simon says, Titans plus six and
44:48
Speaker 1: a half, exact decision, Broncos plus three and a half. Thursday,
44:52
Speaker 1: we will do big balls and scoot Roulette to repeat
44:56
Speaker 1: the teams that we are leaning towards right now. Late Tuesday,
44:59
Speaker 1: Titans six and a half, uh, Lines four and a half,
45:02
Speaker 1: Browns two and a half, Ram six and a half,
45:05
Speaker 1: Pat seven and a half for the contest. I feel
45:08
Speaker 1: like we need to throw the Broncos in there at
45:10
Speaker 1: three and a half as a team. We might talk
45:12
Speaker 1: about for the contest, yeah, but I don't think it'll
45:15
Speaker 1: be at that number. I just think, like you just said,
45:17
Speaker 1: I bet it, a bunch of pros gonna bet I'm
45:19
Speaker 1: gonna bet it tonight again. I'm gonna shop from that
45:21
Speaker 1: three and a half because just when we were talking
45:23
Speaker 1: it out, it's what are the Chargers doing? Are They're
45:26
Speaker 1: really gonna be playing Herbert? And like, the more I'm
45:28
Speaker 1: thinking about it's just like I could easily see this
45:30
Speaker 1: number being a pick. So um, Yeah, if you're hearing this, no,
45:33
Speaker 1: I've already I'm grabbing all this three and a half,
45:36
Speaker 1: So try to grab it while you can grabbing it
45:38
Speaker 1: like it's a bushel, a bushel of three and a half.
45:41
Speaker 1: I think that's everything. We appreciate people listening. We know
45:44
Speaker 1: it's a weird week, it's a weird time to do
45:46
Speaker 1: the podcast, and we will be back on Thursday for
45:50
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I Am Chad Melman has
45:53
Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download
45:57
Speaker 1: us Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast, rate reviews,
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Speaker 1: describe weaves five stars. Feedback is a gift until next time.
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