Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / Inside the Iran war, China’s hidden role, and the economic shock about to hit your wallet

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Inside the Iran war, China’s hidden role, and the economic shock about to hit your wallet · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:00
  Broadcasting around the world.
• 0:02
  This is on the record with Christian Briggs.
• 0:05
  Serious talk about what's happening around the world and how it affects you.
• 0:09
  Unfiltered truth for a world on edge.
• 0:13
  Follow us on X at BMC underscore H AM live in three, two, one.
• 0:22
  Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:23
  This is Christian Briggs.
• 0:24
  You are on the record with Christian Briggs.
• 0:27
  Today, this show is going to be dedicated to really breaking down exactly what is what is the Iranian war all about?
• 0:37
  What started this war?
• 0:39
  Is it really just energy?
• 0:41
  Is it really just weaponization of enriched uranium into nuclear weapons?
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  What exactly is it?
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  Because today we're going to break it down.
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  We're going to be so detailed.
• 0:50
  What we're going to do is we're going to go down the rabbit hole, the ultimate rabbit hole.
• 0:55
  And what we're going to attempt to do and try to really bring to light is the reasoning behind why we did what we did.
• 1:03
  When President Trump put together the plan, the plan in which to synchronize an attack on a regime, a country, was that justified.
• 1:22
  Could we say without any measure of indifference or reservation or hesitation that it was wrong?
• 1:33
  Could we could we go back and say that we being we being the administration?
• 1:39
  Do we make mistakes?
• 1:40
  Do we do we act in good faith?
• 1:44
  That's the question you have to ask yourself.
• 1:47
  Because what happens so many times when we look at the way of which something starts in the end, it's completely different.
• 1:58
  The reasoning behind it sometimes is misunderstood, miscommunicator, just all completely screwed, miskewed all the way to the point where the rational, the rational understanding of why someone does what they do in the beginning isn't the exact or even comes close to the reasoning or the understanding in the end.
• 2:23
  So let's just let's just take this from the start.
• 2:35
  What does that mean?
• 2:36
  When you look at the Iranian war and the United States participated aggressively with Israel, we don't want to say we did their entire war for them, but at the end of the day, at the end of the day, that's kind of what we did.
• 2:50
  We took the lead because we're the superpower.
• 2:53
  We have the military that goes far beyond Israeli's capabilities in conventional war.
• 2:59
  And even in a nuclear war, they have nuclear warheads.
• 3:02
  We know this, they have nuclear weapons, but not to the level that we do, not to the types, not to the amounts, not to the killing power.
• 3:10
  So when you look at what the Iranian war was for, not just who participated with us, which was Israel, and we had some allies that did some supplemental things for us.
• 3:20
  There's no question about it.
• 3:22
  But the Iranian war has become, and I'm gonna say it again, the most strategically consequential event for China in more than a decade.
• 3:29
  And let me explain why.
• 3:33
  When you peel the onion back, and for many of you out there that have been following this, there's a lot of conspiracy theories.
• 3:39
  But I think once you hear my show today, a lot of those conspiracy theories will be not made entirely wrong, but the majority probably will go by the wayside because they're just pieces and bits.
• 3:54
  The real story under is underlying real real clear here, because it strikes to the core of Beijing's energy security, its Middle Eastern posture, it's sanctions, invasion architecture, and his long-term planning for a Taiwan contingency.
• 4:13
  Okay.
• 4:14
  That's the truth.
• 4:15
  And that's what people need to understand that this was not a conventional war that was put out of some type of afterthought.
• 4:27
  No.
• 4:29
  Trump's known for years, even in the first term, that at some point what Barack Obama did, which gave them the ability, they being Iran, the ability to literally have nuclear energy in parallel with nuclear enriched weaponized uranium.
• 4:54
  It wasn't, oh, we're going to make energy, and that's what we're focusing on.
• 4:57
  And then, oh, by the way, we came across a little extra enriched uranium, and I don't know how it happened, but it got enriched up to a percentage of weaponized grade.
• 5:07
  And we're sorry about that.
• 5:09
  But we're not gonna we're not gonna give it back or or destroy it or let you have it.
• 5:14
  No.
• 5:15
  So it was all from day one.
• 5:18
  We're gonna go under the focus and let the world think that this is what we're looking at here.
• 5:23
  This is our mindset.
• 5:25
  It's all about energy.
• 5:27
  It was never about energy.
• 5:29
  Energy was the horse.
• 5:32
  Energy wrapped around the real reason.
• 5:37
  They wanted weapons.
• 5:39
  They wanted weapons of such mass destruction that they could be a player in the world's political.
• 5:44
  And I'm gonna say the world, very specific part of the world, the Middle East, and control everything and anything they could get their hands on.
• 5:56
  So when you start to look at the way China positioned themselves in and around Iran, it's all gonna make sense here.
• 6:08
  Because again, I'm gonna say it clearly.
• 6:11
  What China's been doing with Iran for 20 plus 25 years, it struck at the core of Beijing's energy security because between Venezuela and Iran, there was massive amount of discounted oil, discounted oil, and massive amounts they had a steady stream of oil to power their entire country, their production lines, energy security at a below market pricing.
• 6:43
  So they were doing good.
• 6:44
  They were keeping their inflation low, cost of production low, everything associated with life today has oil somewhere involved in it.
• 6:51
  So if oil is cheaper by some percentage, everything is cheaper.
• 6:57
  So when you look at what they were doing, in the way it was positioning itself in the Middle East, that was trying to posture.
• 7:07
  It's even its sanctions, invasion architecture, and its long-term planning for again what?
• 7:13
  A Taiwan invasion.
• 7:16
  China's reaction to the United States and Israel strike was sit, was swift.
• 7:21
  I mean, I'll give you that.
• 7:23
  They were quick to mention than condemn it.
• 7:25
  Are you crazy?
• 7:26
  You can't do this, but it was symbolic just because it was consisting of a lot of don't do this, you don't have the right, international law has been broken.
• 7:38
  You need to stop immediately.
• 7:41
  You're not within the international rights of confrontation.
• 7:46
  I mean, I'm just making that kind of stuff up as one of the words, but that's basically the theory.
• 7:50
  It was you have no right in which to destroy a regime that is the net the largest natural funder of terrorism in the world, state fund, state funding of Iran's terrorist money is massive.
• 8:06
  And China's like, oh, you can't do this, and you can't do that.
• 8:09
  You're they're condemning us, you know Americans for doing it.
• 8:14
  And here's Donald Trump saying, no, listen, these people are bad people, not the people of Iran, but the people of the regime, the people who ran the government, the Ayatollahs, who were hardcore Islamic radicals who believe that unless you accept Islam, unless you bow down and bear give your soul and just bear it and grin, you have no reason to live.
• 8:41
  If you're not embracing Islam, you're you're you have no value.
• 8:45
  And they were gonna let us know this by what?
• 8:48
  Having nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons that could literally destroy a third of America.
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  Certainly position them in places where the damage could be so extensive that we couldn't recover.
• 8:59
  And Trump knew this.
• 9:00
  Israel knew this.
• 9:01
  Now, how far down the road with the bomb were they?
• 9:04
  History will tell us.
• 9:07
  Was it one missile, 10 missiles, 20 missiles?
• 9:10
  Was it intercontinental ballistic capability, or were they simply just a bunch of rich uranium and but in some shoe boxes, throw them in a truck and drive it to your destination and blow something up?
• 9:21
  Either way, they had it.
• 9:23
  The question is, how much longer before we acted, and how much longer could they have acted in such a catastrophic manner that it would have been too late?
• 9:33
  So Trump did the right thing.
• 9:35
  It may not have been the most popular way, but then a lot of times saving a country and saving their people, you do things that are less popular.
• 9:43
  So it wasn't about popularity, it was about efficiency.
• 9:48
  And Trump took the lead on that, and he was right.
• 9:50
  And so China's reaction to when this all started was quick.
• 9:55
  I mean, man, they came out and said it, but it was just symbolic.
• 10:00
  Because why?
• 10:00
  You can't do anything about it.
• 10:02
  It's like the biggest guy on the block taking on the next biggest guy.
• 10:10
  And there's 50, 50 equal fans for both.
• 10:15
  But you got to do it.
• 10:16
  You got to take them out because this guy's bad.
• 10:19
  Yes, half the people love them, but half the people don't.
• 10:22
  And that's kind of how it was, but a little bit more skewed toward the United States and popularity.
• 10:27
  We were definitely taking out a regime, not a culture per se, with all the people.
• 10:33
  We're taking out a bad group of people who for 47 years took ample value out of the economy.
• 10:41
  I mean, they were just milking it for their own personal use.
• 10:45
  Then they went left over.
• 10:46
  They were basically sending to terrorism groups all over the world.
• 10:50
  Then they decided we can go a step further.
• 10:53
  We can literally control the world.
• 10:55
  Well, how do you say?
• 10:57
  I'm going to tell you how they did it.
• 10:58
  But we're certainly attempting to.
• 11:10
  Increase their political power in the Middle East by threatening to use them.
• 11:16
  Because nobody else has them in the Middle East.
• 11:17
  Turkey does.
• 11:19
  But they're a little bit outside the inner circle of the Middle East.
• 11:25
  We're talking about Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even that's kind of on the outskirts.
• 11:32
  You've got other countries there, Kuwait, some of them of which are very pro-business, pro-America because of that.
• 11:40
  And there's a few that is death to America.
• 11:44
  Let's get rid of them and let's use whatever conventional or nuclear options we're going to have.
• 11:50
  What we do have and what we're going to have.
• 11:52
  And that's what Iran was looking for was not a diplomatic solution to stop this, but an additional reason to kill us.
• 12:01
  And China spent 25 years putting money into Iran, building their entire infrastructure of oil and gas to the level that it was, whether it's production, refining, distribution.
• 12:14
  They poured billions into Iran.
• 12:17
  Well, guess what?
• 12:18
  They lost that money the second we took it over, and we've taken it over.
• 12:22
  Don't worry about the regime right this second.
• 12:24
  You'll be fine.
• 12:25
  We're going to be just fine.
• 12:27
  So when China then got pissed off, and they were mad because they're like, what the heck?
• 12:33
  You're taking our oil.
• 12:35
  It was more like, oh, de-escalate, de-escalate.
• 12:40
  They even went so far to say, let's find a compromise.
• 12:44
  Comprise.
• 12:45
  What they keep three of the 10 bombs?
• 12:47
  Oh, okay.
• 12:48
  Let's see how three of them work out.
• 12:50
  You only need one of those two or three kiloton bomb to go off.
• 12:54
  And you destroyed everybody in New York City and the surrounding communities by 50 to 100 miles with the radioactive fallout.
• 13:01
  They may not be blowing in the dark from the time it hits, but within a couple months, little Tommy and little Susie, you'll be able to see them from way across the other side of town.
• 13:11
  Because they're not only going to be glowing in the dark, they're going to look like transparent jellyfish thanks to the radiation poisoning.
• 13:17
  And that's a fact.
• 13:18
  So there is no level of acceptance and surrender or confrontation that you want to be in when nuclear weapons and nuclear armament is involved, especially with crazies.
• 13:33
  And these people are crazy.
• 13:36
  So now China's sitting there after 25 years putting billions, billions into this country.
• 13:45
  Can you imagine what President Xi Xi Ping he didn't know anything was coming?
• 13:49
  And they probably said, hey, listen, you're going to have Kung Pao shrimp, rice and beans tonight.
• 13:55
  Oh, and by the way, we just lost one third of our oil, uh discounted oil that comes to China.
• 14:01
  And we've just lost billions of dollars in the refinery.
• 14:05
  And we've lost it all, and Trump got it.
• 14:08
  And now that's two countries.
• 14:09
  We lost 60 some percent of our energy, our energy that is put together and brought to us by what Venezuela in Iran.
• 14:18
  I bet he was not happy.
• 14:21
  In fact, he was probably one of the most upset people in China.
• 14:27
  Whatever he was eating, probably ended up on the wall, and whatever he was using to eat with, probably he stabbed the wall after he put the food on the wall.
• 14:36
  Yeah, he wasn't going to be a happy camper on this one.
• 14:38
  So after they got pissed off, said all these things about the evilness of the US and get rid of this unbelievable overreach and diplomatic issue, and the foreign minister Wang Yi, uh I guess went to um Russia and Iran, Oman and France.
• 14:59
  And he went to them and said, hey, you got to stop this.
• 15:02
  The response revealed the limits of Chinese influence and the cold pragmatic, pragmastic that defines Beijing's approach to the regime.
• 15:15
  China does not need Islamic Republic as such.
• 15:18
  It needs stable energy flows, manageable oil prices in the Gulf that remains open for business.
• 15:25
  So when Iran, I don't want to say leveled.
• 15:32
  That's not the right word.
• 15:33
  Gaza was leveled.
• 15:35
  But when Iran was bombed, bombarded, hammered, and it was hammered pretty significantly.
• 15:42
  They finally said, okay, Uncle.
• 15:46
  But it really didn't reflect a lot because a lot of the wealth of Russia was gone.
• 15:51
  It was like it left the country.
• 15:54
  The ruble went up against the Ukrainian currency dollar, but it went, it still lost tremendous amount of its value, as it should in times of war.
• 16:04
  So when we go back here to this, and we start to look at the reasoning, again, it goes back to China and the great influence they had in the great natural resources.
• 16:15
  They had their fingertips on what it represented to their country in terms of that low-cost oil and tons of oil per day.
• 16:22
  Trump knew this.
• 16:24
  So in order to be able to go after China's military that's going to start looking at Taiwan more and more aggressively, he had to prepare here, but and then try to do disadvantage China because two and a half years ago, China took their two largest refineries in two different providences and converted them from land transportation diesel to marine-based diesel.
• 16:51
  So marine diesel is used obviously in all sorts of military applications when it comes to the Navy, the sea.
• 17:02
  And so they were getting ready to switch to even more refineries, getting some of the marine diesel converted from transportation.
• 17:11
  I'll call it ground diesel that's transported on the ground.
• 17:14
  And then Trump just said, uh-uh, you have no more oil.
• 17:17
  You can have 10 refineries switch, but you got 10 that aren't going to get any oil.
• 17:23
  So he was livid.
• 17:25
  But it worked in a sense.
• 17:27
  Now China's starting to flip out and do some pretty stupid things, but it worked because it set a tone.
• 17:32
  The marketplace liked this.
• 17:33
  I like the aggressiveness that we pushed back.
• 17:36
  It knows that China's going to have to fold us cards and pretty much have to play ball when you control 90% of their homeland.
• 17:44
  And oil is one way to control everything at home because it's so dependent.
• 17:48
  It's everything.
• 17:50
  So let's kind of drill down here.
• 17:53
  Let's look at what their deep level of response was.
• 17:58
  Okay.
• 17:59
  Chinese influence and the cold reasoning behind that defines Beijing's approach to the region.
• 18:04
  China's done does not need Islamic Republic as such.
• 18:08
  It just needs stable energy flows.
• 18:12
  Okay.
• 18:12
  Remember that.
• 18:13
  Manageable oil prices, we all want that, and a gulf that remains open for business.
• 18:19
  So the war threatened all three of these.
• 18:21
  In fact, it exposes Chinese structural vulnerabilities when Trump pulled all these three things into kind of a chaotic environment, more influence by the U.S., more control by the U.S., China went into complete meltdown.
• 18:35
  They think they're the superpower of creation.
• 18:38
  They're not.
• 18:39
  They're just simple builders and copycatters.
• 18:42
  And they're good at it.
• 18:43
  I don't blame them at all.
• 18:45
  I mean, if that's the way it works, it works, but the way they're doing it doesn't work.
• 18:49
  So China, when you start to look at like republic is what it is.
• 18:56
  It needs the again stable energy flows.
• 18:59
  And that is energy that they know they can count on for usually six to 12 months at a minimum in guarantees.
• 19:05
  Okay.
• 19:06
  I will buy all your oil at a 10% discount to market that day or at market.
• 19:12
  And for the next 10 years, if I choose to continue to option every two years or two and a half, whatever it was, I did the final final deal here in the last few weeks.
• 19:21
  Then I will, if I lose the bet, I will pay you X amount of money.
• 19:26
  And they're like, okay, we'll take that deal.
• 19:29
  Because they had no risk.
• 19:31
  Even if it went down, they're still getting their stuff sold.
• 19:33
  If it goes up, they're making that much more money.
• 19:35
  So they get penalized a nickel, but it went up a dollar.
• 19:38
  I'll give you a nickel for a dollar every day during the week and twice on Sunday.
• 19:43
  So that's the whole catch.
• 19:45
  And so when you start to think again, go back to that original topic.
• 19:48
  Does China need us?
• 19:50
  Yeah, they need us.
• 19:51
  But they need this more.
• 19:53
  And that's what keeps it more positive and more real.
• 19:57
  Okay.
• 19:58
  And give me kind of this like.
• 20:00
  Little part here, but hang on, you ready?
• 20:02
  Here we go.
• 20:03
  China does not need the Islamic Republic, et cetera.
• 20:05
  I said earlier, but give this to me.
• 20:08
  The war threatens energy flows, manageable oil prices, and gulf that could be subject to some kind of a toll fee.
• 20:17
  It's crazy.
• 20:18
  It's been around for a thousand years and we're still paying for it.
• 20:22
  The war the thwar threatens several things for China.
• 20:25
  It exposes China's structural vulnerabilities.
• 20:32
  It accelerates its internal economic pressures and it forces Beijing to confront a narrow window for global influence.
• 20:38
  And the conflict also reshapes the triangular dynamics among China, Russia, and Iran, revealing, revealing challenges that weaken the emerging anti-Western bloc.
• 20:51
  The result is a strategic environment in which China faces rising costs, shrinking leverage, and a diminished ability to shape outcomes beyond its borders.
• 21:02
  That's a fact.
• 21:03
  That is a fact.
• 21:05
  And I and I further this overview.
• 21:29
  And then the Home Depots, the Lowe's.
• 21:32
  They go through very, very strategic tools or materials to better all the homes.
• 21:38
  You know, Beijing spent two decades embedding itself into Iran's economy.
• 21:43
  People aren't even aware of this.
• 21:45
  And did it in the infrastructure and this and in security state it literally put everything it knows into the infrastructure, every part of Iranian ecosystem to be able to gain access and control.
• 21:58
  Chinese telecommunications giant built the backbone of Iran's digital ecosystem.
• 22:04
  We would never do that.
• 22:06
  Chinese surveillance companies installed the cameras, the facial recognition systems, and the deep packet inspection tools that allow the regime to suppress dissident.
• 22:17
  China worked with the regime to make sure to enslave as best they could without right saying it into communism, and even sometimes worse than that.
• 22:27
  And we've known about it for 25, 30 years that it was getting this bad, and that they were going to build a nuclear bomb had they had more time.
• 22:36
  The National Information Network, Iran's domestic intranet was constructed with Chinese assistant and model on the great firewall.
• 22:45
  Holy cow.
• 22:46
  You understand what that means.
• 22:48
  When I put this together, I'm thinking about this stuff.
• 22:51
  They built the entire security system.
• 22:54
  It's like saying, hey, we're gonna put a safe in the bank.
• 22:59
  You can't have the combination.
• 23:02
  Only we do.
• 23:03
  It's hooked up to the security system, but you can't have the number to turn it off or the code.
• 23:08
  Nope.
• 23:08
  None of that you're allowed to have.
• 23:10
  But it works, trust us.
• 23:12
  Two weeks later, you come in and the safe is there.
• 23:14
  You're like, oh, great.
• 23:14
  You open it up and it's empty.
• 23:16
  Why not?
• 23:17
  Why shouldn't it be?
• 23:19
  Temptation is something that would be too too great for someone like China to sit there and do that.
• 23:27
  Okay.
• 23:28
  So what they did was they built into the infrastructure.
• 23:31
  And I mean from A to Z.
• 23:34
  Okay.
• 23:36
  So these systems enabled Tehran to survive mass uprisings, including the January 26th protests that were met with lethal force.
• 23:45
  That was like 40,000 people were killed over about two week period.
• 23:48
  China's investment in Iran was therefore an investment in regime durability, regional disruption, and long-term strategic leverage.
• 23:58
  Think about that for a second.
• 24:00
  Yet the new information clarifies that this leverage has limits.
• 24:05
  Oh, yeah.
• 24:07
  And China's response to killing of Iran superleader was confined to rhetorical condemnation and diplomatic outreach.
• 24:14
  I mean, what it basically meant was they couldn't do anything about it.
• 24:18
  They had no choice but to go along with at least the killing of the leader, but not the effectiveness of what occurred to change, modify, or overthrow the government as it stands.
• 24:33
  So if you start to think about this, Beijing could not protect its actual partner.
• 24:39
  And it knew it.
• 24:40
  In other words, Beijing knew it, that the United States could not be protected, even if it was a country that China hated equally, but they don't hate North Korea or South Korea.
• 24:50
  They they don't hate the United States because they need to do business with it.
• 24:56
  They just didn't like the fact that President Trump went and did what he did with Iran.
• 25:07
  And when you look at the way China positioned itself, it needs Iran.
• 25:14
  It really does need Iran, but doesn't need the Islamic state.
• 25:18
  It needs the oil.
• 25:19
  It needed the oil.
• 25:21
  So the emerging answer is that China needs a gulf that remains open for business.
• 25:27
  If the regime continues in Tehran and supports the objective, China will accept it.
• 25:32
  If it does not, China will just adjust.
• 25:34
  They always do.
• 25:35
  They've been around 5,000 years.
• 25:36
  Of course, they're going to adjust.
• 25:38
  This is the essence of Beijing's cold war, as I call it now.
• 25:43
  What was and seemed to be gone is China's version of the Cold War.
• 25:47
  It condemns regime change in public but privately prepares for multiple political outcomes in Iran, including the possibility of a post-clerical order.
• 25:57
  So China's strategic bet was never on Iran's ideology.
• 26:00
  Never.
• 26:01
  It was on Iran's geographical location, okay, and its ability to supply discounted oil outside the reach of Western sanctions.
• 26:11
  That was all what it's about.
• 26:13
  That's what it was about.
• 26:15
  And so as we get closer to negotiating a peace deal, which really would just reflect that Iran has no energy and or weaponized uranium.
• 26:24
  No energy, sources using uranium, you know, uranium.
• 26:30
  That's that's the final thing.
• 26:32
  On the record with Christian Briggs, we'll be right back after a word from our sponsor.
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• 32:16
  I'm not so sure that it needed to be to this level.
• 32:19
  I think it was more about cutting off the oil to China and breaking up the uh the suppression of the people and possibly with the third thing.
• 32:28
  And I mean it might have been part of the the weaponization of the rich uranium, but I also believe it was China cutting the oil, helping these poor people 47 years live under, I mean, this thing was like tyranny.
• 32:41
  This was as bad as this one.
• 32:47
  Also trying to uh put Iran back out of the sponsoring of all the terrorism around the world, put them back into where they were back 50, 60 years ago.
• 32:58
  I mean, when the Shah ran, they may not have liked them, but they live well.
• 33:01
  Yeah, I got a good feeling that this will be good.
• 33:04
  The question is, how does this stack up as an impact today?
• 33:10
  Okay, so you look at like the two Fed guys today were talking about, oh, yesterday and it was like six three or four between the two days.
• 33:18
  How they said, well, this will spike inflation.
• 33:20
  The question is, will oil ever get back below 85?
• 33:23
  Or I've got people telling me no, it's not gonna happen.
• 33:26
  I mean, there are people in the oil industry saying that there's gonna be a fear factor left in oil for at least six months.
• 33:33
  5% inflation, 5% inflation by year end.
• 33:38
  Just think about every single thing that oil impacts.
• 33:41
  Everything is nothing it doesn't impact everything.
• 33:45
  It was like I said earlier in the program where I said salary and carrots go up 50%.
• 33:49
  Who cares?
• 33:50
  Okay, there'd be some pissed-off rabbits out there without their mainstay.
• 33:56
  And so, but for us, it's everything.
• 34:00
  Okay, so let's talk about farmers for a second.
• 34:03
  Just think about this for a second.
• 34:05
  Jay, this is what I was trying to say earlier.
• 34:07
  But everything.
• 34:10
  Okay, you ready?
• 34:11
  Here we go.
• 34:12
  So it's okay.
• 34:12
  Fertilizer prices.
• 34:14
  When you mention farmers or you mentioned the carrots and the sellers, I guess brought up like the rabbi food.
• 34:21
  Everything.
• 34:22
  So driven by fertilizer prices have this is a quote.
• 34:28
  Skyrocketed in early 26.
• 34:31
  Driven by surging oil and natural gas prices following the U.S.
• 34:34
  Israeli conflict with Iran, which began on the 28th of February of 26.
• 34:40
  The crisis has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormose, a key artery for 20% of the global oil.
• 34:48
  And a significant portion of the fertilizer export is like, whoa, think about that for farmers.
• 34:53
  There's your food supply.
• 34:56
  The Iran war strikes directly at the China's most dangerous vulnerability.
• 35:01
  Everybody knows this.
• 35:02
  China doesn't have enough of its own oil production, doesn't have any meaningful domestic oil production to keep it from going dark.
• 35:10
  China is the world's largest crude oil importer, and Iran has been a critical supplier.
• 35:15
  And according to data that I found analyzed by Politico and the market intelligence firm Tipler, Iran was China's second largest crude supplier last year after Saudi Arabia.
• 35:26
  That's huge.
• 35:27
  So we're taking from Venezuela and Iran.
• 35:30
  We're taking back.
• 35:32
  We're taking back the strength or the power that China has held for decades.
• 35:38
  We're taking it from them.
• 35:40
  We're weakening them.
• 35:42
  And they don't like it.
• 35:43
  And I can prove it here in a second.
• 35:46
  Venezuela, as I said earlier, another sanctioned state whose leadership was recently targeted by Washington.
• 35:52
  Trump went after him.
• 35:54
  Sends more than half its exports to China.
• 35:56
  Of course it does.
• 35:58
  It's crappy oil that is sold to China for below market rates.
• 36:06
  And so when you think about that, together, Iran and Venezuela accounted for roughly 17% of China's total oil production.
• 36:15
  I think it was higher than 17%.
• 36:16
  My numbers are closer to 25%.
• 36:18
  Even as high as 30, depending upon the type of crude we're talking about.
• 36:23
  So the broader exposure is even more significant.
• 36:26
  More than half of China's crude imports come from countries that rely on the straight of hormones.
• 36:31
  The narrow shipping lane now and at the center of the crisis.
• 36:35
  This little tiny, you probably already looked it up on a map.
• 36:38
  It's tiny.
• 36:43
  I would have thought it was easily could be taken over, but Iran had a foothold in it.
• 36:48
  Give them credit.
• 36:48
  They had underwater mines.
• 36:50
  They had conventional weapons.
• 36:53
  They also had their navy, which we blew that up.
• 36:55
  But they did have, they did have a good fight.
• 36:59
  I mean, it wasn't just a complete lay down.
• 37:01
  So following the strikes, vessels began avoiding the straight and Iranian threats and reported tanker attacks.
• 37:08
  Oh, man, they stepped them up.
• 37:09
  You know, just here in the last seven days, a Chinese ship was attacked.
• 37:15
  Um the US, which obviously could put put the kabosh on any ships going through the strait.
• 37:23
  China's like, yeah, we'll do that.
• 37:25
  So I heard that it was going through today.
• 37:27
  But over the last couple of weeks, there's been some that have gone through, but there's been a few that have to pay ransom like a million dollars, which is crazy.
• 37:34
  Iran should have just cut a deal, given up their nuclear energy program.
• 37:40
  They would have had probably a trillion dollars in infrastructure rebuild money.
• 37:43
  They got cash flow, 60, 70 billion a year.
• 37:46
  It's not like they can't rebuild.
• 37:48
  And quite honestly, they don't need a nuclear weapon.
• 37:51
  There's no reason, none.
• 37:53
  Everybody out there is fighting.
• 37:55
  Can you imagine Iran getting taken over and somebody goes, hey, I got the nukes and I got the codes.
• 38:00
  Yeah, that's not gonna happen.
• 38:02
  Not gonna happen under Trump's watch.
• 38:05
  And so because of all this, they had massive reserves.
• 38:11
  And I'm talking about hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil just sitting there.
• 38:15
  But that's not enough.
• 38:17
  So what they do?
• 38:18
  Well, I'm glad you asked.
• 38:20
  So what do they turn toward Russian oil?
• 38:23
  And it's the most logical short-term adjustment.
• 38:26
  But even this solution has its limit if regional shipping routes remain volatile.
• 38:31
  And I mean volatile to the point where they're they're letting people have uh the night off.
• 38:36
  Following the strikes, the vessels began avoiding the straight amid Iranian threats and reported tanker attacks.
• 38:43
  Crude prices surge more than 12% and continue to rise, driven by geopolitical risk premiums rather than immediate supply shortages.
• 38:52
  China does possess buffers.
• 38:55
  It holds significant crude reserves and had already begun reducing Iranian imports in 26 in favor of increased Russian supply.
• 39:03
  So only 12 or 13%.
• 39:05
  I heard it was much, much higher than that for oil dependency with China and or China on Venezuela and Iran.
• 39:13
  So but they did make adjustments and they started looking more toward and having Russia supply the needs of the country.
• 39:20
  So turning further toward that Russian world was the most logical short-term adjustment, but even the solution has limits if regional shipping routes remain volatile.
• 39:31
  And Chinese state energy firms report that Beijing is quietly urging Iran to avoid disruptive flows through the strait.
• 39:38
  Yeah, don't mess with those flows that need to stay open.
• 39:41
  The lanes need to stay open.
• 39:44
  And China relies heavily on liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which produces roughly a fifth of global LNG.
• 39:57
  After an Iranian drone strike, the first suspension.
• 40:00
  In three decades in 30 years, this LNG, liquefied natural gas, refinery and output center was completely put out of business or at least suspended.
• 40:14
  Like it's never happened.
• 40:16
  They're going in areas they've never struck before.
• 40:18
  And so Beijing was reportedly pressed Iranian counterparts not to target oil or LNG tankers or export hubs.
• 40:26
  Yeah.
• 40:27
  I mean, come on, you can't, you can't just take these guys out like that.
• 40:32
  I mean, you're gonna have a catastrophe, a catastrophic event on these prices.
• 40:35
  Now obviously they've come down today and yesterday.
• 40:38
  But the beauty is that as much as they've come down, they're still 40% higher than what they were 60, 90 days ago.
• 40:46
  It's like people are like, oh my God, the whole prices are down 20%.
• 40:49
  Yeah, but they're still up 55 to 60%.
• 40:52
  And then people go, oh, yeah, that's right.
• 40:54
  High energy prices pose immediate risk for China.
• 40:58
  Think about this.
• 40:59
  Imported inflation could squeeze manufacturers, complicate monetary policy, and weaken consumer demand at a moment when Beijing is already attempting to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption.
• 41:15
  That's the way it works.
• 41:17
  That's the best place to go.
• 41:19
  So Beijing has already attempting to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption.
• 41:25
  Disruptions in shipping through Hermoose or adjacent routes would ripple across Asia.
• 41:31
  Intensifying competition for barrels and raising costs for regional economies.
• 41:37
  The timing is particularly sensitive, unfolding just weeks before a planned summit between President Donald J.
• 41:44
  Trump and General Secretary Xi Jinping.
• 41:48
  China's entire industrial economy is built on what?
• 41:52
  Stable and affordable oil and gas.
• 41:56
  If an oil crisis truly escalates, China's economy could be pushed to the brink.
• 42:00
  This is this is pretty serious.
• 42:04
  Proxy warfare and China's indirect leverage.
• 42:06
  Iran's proxy network has been one of China's most effective tools for indirect strategic pressure.
• 42:12
  There's no question about it.
• 42:14
  No question about it.
• 42:15
  China has pushed more buttons to create more chaos and disruption in the Middle East.
• 42:20
  They love this high oil price.
• 42:21
  They're just pissed they can't get in the oil, period.
• 42:24
  They certainly look at the damage of inflation does for the rest of the G7.
• 42:28
  And the Houthis disrupted the Red Sea shipping, cutting traffic by nearly 90%, enforcing global rerouting that affected one trillion dollars in goods.
• 42:43
  China contributed no ships to the protection force.
• 42:46
  Yet Chinese satellite companies provided targeting China intelligence to the Houthis.
• 42:54
  This dynamic allowed China to impose costs on the United States without direct confrontation.
• 43:00
  Very important there.
• 43:01
  The new information clarifies that China sees potential upside in a prolonged Middle East conflict.
• 43:07
  Of course they do.
• 43:08
  Of course they do.
• 43:09
  They want this to last years.
• 43:11
  It weakens the entire region, and they can walk in, scoop up cheap real estate, cheap oil assets.
• 43:18
  They want this.
• 43:20
  The new information clarifies that China sees potential upside in the prolonged Middle East conflict.
• 43:26
  Of course they do.
• 43:28
  It's about money.
• 43:29
  If the United States becomes deeply entangled in a regional war, American attention resources could be diverted away from what?
• 43:37
  Indo-Pacific.
• 43:38
  What's in Indo-Pacific?
• 43:40
  Taiwan.
• 43:42
  The Iraq war conceded with China's rapid economic ascent in part because Washington was distracted.
• 43:49
  Today, with U.S.
• 43:50
  and China rivalry for more intense, a similar distraction would be more consequential.
• 43:56
  This is going to happen.
• 43:59
  And this drawn out conflict could also displete U.S.
• 44:02
  weapons stockpiles that require rare earth elements for replenishment.
• 44:05
  I can tell you right now, that's already happening.
• 44:08
  It's happening.
• 44:09
  Can't even tell you what a hammer cost compared to five years.
• 44:12
  If I looked it up, it was double digits.
• 44:15
  And they're saying that there's no inflation.
• 44:18
  We'll see about that.
• 44:19
  I mean, I want there to be, I don't want to be right on the subject, but how you avoid it when people go like, oh, here's why you're wrong.
• 44:24
  I'm like, yeah, okay.
• 44:26
  I'm not going to argue that one that doesn't look very good.
• 44:30
  You know, and so that's the whole point.
• 44:33
  So today with U.S.
• 44:34
  China rivalry, far more intense.
• 44:36
  A similar distraction would be even more consequential.
• 44:39
  Like drawn-out conflict could also deplete U.S.
• 44:41
  weapons stockpiles that require rare earth elements for replenishment.
• 44:46
  China dominates global rare earth production by 90%.
• 44:50
  90% they have their tentacles on, giving Beijing a massive leverage over the pace of American rearmament.
• 44:59
  So as we continue to bomb Iran and we moved forward, the proxy warfare and China's indirect leverage, Iran's proxy network has been one of China's most effective tools for indirect strategic pressure.
• 45:11
  See, the Houthis disrupted the Red Sea shipping, cutting off traffic by 90%, and forcing global rerouting that affected one trillion dollars in goods immediately.
• 45:23
  See, China wasn't stupid.
• 45:24
  They knew that if the United States was going to take on Iran in a conventional war, there was going to be a massive disruption in oil.
• 45:30
  So they did systematically find other suppliers.
• 45:33
  We know this.
• 45:34
  It may not have been to the level they needed, but they were in the process and they accumulated some of that production in advance.
• 45:41
  And then whatever they lost from Iran, they were working around the clock.
• 45:44
  And the Houthis disrupted the Red Sea shipping.
• 45:47
  And that went, you saw oil prices went to as high as what, 120 a barrel.
• 45:51
  I think they got as high as 141 a barrel in European trading for North Sea.
• 45:57
  And so the U.S.
• 45:58
  naval forces expended a quarter of their high-end interceptor inventory to defend commercial shipping.
• 46:05
  Very important.
• 46:06
  China contributed no ships to the protection force, yet Chinese satellite companies provided targeting intelligence to the Houthis because they wanted it stopped so they could maintain at least the lost production until they could figure out where to get the balance of it.
• 46:20
  Plus, they had to invested billions of dollars into Iran's infrastructure.
• 46:24
  So this dynamic allowed China to impose costs on the United States without direct confrontation.
• 46:30
  Yeah, inflation, right?
• 46:31
  The cost of oil, direct inflation, and that covered everything.
• 46:35
  So the new information clarifies that China sees potential upside in a prolonged Middle East conflict.
• 46:40
  I've been saying that.
• 46:41
  So if the United States becomes deeply entangled in a regional war, American attention and resources could be diverted away from the Indo-Pacific.
• 46:50
  Why?
• 46:51
  Well, let's talk about that, like I said earlier.
• 46:54
  Taiwan, it's all about Taiwan.
• 46:56
  We cannot let them take Taiwan because the chip manufacturing industry.
• 47:02
  That's massive, especially with the sensitive chips that are made in military applications.
• 47:08
  So the Iraq war conceded with China's rapid economic ascent, in part because Washington was what?
• 47:15
  Distracted.
• 47:16
  Okay, get it.
• 47:18
  Today with US-China rivalry, far more intense.
• 47:23
  A similar distraction would even be more consequential.
• 47:27
  A drawn-out conflict could also deplete U.S.
• 47:30
  weapons stockpiles that require what?
• 47:34
  What is the one thing that China's been holding back?
• 47:37
  Rare earth elements and resources for replenishment.
• 47:41
  See, China wasn't stupid.
• 47:43
  If they push the US into some type of conventional war, and it was almost like they wanted to some degree, maybe not yet.
• 47:50
  Maybe it would have been this summer this fall for a conflict with Iran to deplete our resources.
• 47:56
  Well, they then take all of their time that they've been putting together to invade Taiwan.
• 48:02
  They would have had it.
• 48:03
  No question they would have had.
• 48:05
  A ground assault would have absolutely been possible and highly probable.
• 48:11
  Okay.
• 48:12
  Probable in securing Taiwan.
• 48:17
  See, yet the risk to China are far more immediate than the potential benefits.
• 48:21
  And I'll tell you why.
• 48:22
  This is something that China has to consider, and which they did, but maybe not to the level like this.
• 48:29
  The energy shock is not hypothetical.
• 48:34
  It's operational.
• 48:35
  China's manufacturing focused economy is built on stable and affordable oil.
• 48:40
  I've said this before.
• 48:42
  So again, it goes back to the whole strategy.
• 48:45
  China's dual track strategy depended on Iran's ability to generate collaborated instability that pushed Gulf states toward Beijing for economic and technological support.
• 48:56
  See, Beijing brokered the Saudi Iran normalization agreement in 23.
• 49:01
  That expanded the port and rail investments across the Gulf and integrated the Hawaii into critical infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, which you know what that is.
• 49:11
  Those are the guys who make the chips that can listen to the systems that we talk on.
• 49:15
  We we said, no, we're not going to have you build our infrastructure when it comes to the 5G or next generation 6G critical infrastructure for technology and communications deliverables.
• 49:26
  That was like basically saying, hey, we're going to install the phone system.
• 49:30
  We'll give it to you for free.
• 49:30
  But every time you make a phone call, we're going to listen in and record it and know exactly what you're thinking and what you're planning on doing.
• 49:36
  Well, the Gulf did it, and stupid, but they did it.
• 49:39
  So the strategy required a balance between disruption and stability.
• 49:43
  So when China wanted instability in the Middle East, they first wanted a stable enough to where they could have their systems installed, have enough oil in the in the alcohol in the bank and have any and all loss production possibilities
• 50:00
  Already determined by another supplier.
• 50:02
  They didn't, I don't think they quite figured on this war happening in this manner this quick because why?
• 50:10
  A weak end Iran reduces the fear factor that China leveraged to expand its influence.
• 50:15
  The fact Gulf states may now reassess the reliability of Chinese security guarantees and the risk of over dependence on Chinese technology, see, and the Taiwan connection and China's strategic paradox.
• 50:30
  It's it's still there.
• 50:32
  It's exposed.
• 50:33
  We've seen it.
• 50:33
  We know what they were trying to do.
• 50:35
  And the Iran war creates a paradox for China.
• 50:38
  A prolonged conflict could distract the United States and deplete the American munitions, which benefits Beijing, like I said, and I'm going to say this again.
• 50:47
  Yet the same conflict threatens Chinese energy lifelines, which are essential for what?
• 50:52
  Sustaining its economy during any Taiwan contingency.
• 50:56
  So they were trying to balance everything here.
• 50:58
  And so we balancing the fact that China, we wanted to disrupt China's oil supply for their energy needs.
• 51:04
  We wanted to get rid of any potential nuclear energy slash weapons that they were building from enriched uranium to weapons graves.
• 51:14
  So it was a balance that China was working.
• 51:16
  And we had to destroy one of the other.
• 51:17
  But by taking out Iran the way we did, we kind of slowed China down and destroyed any nuclear weapons that Iran could have ever thought about producing.
• 51:26
  And they had produced some, but not to the level they could have given another five years.
• 51:31
  Oh, think about it.
• 51:32
  It's just it would be it would be like giving Charles Manson reason to kill again.
• 51:39
  He didn't need much.
• 51:41
  He didn't need much.
• 51:42
  But if you give him more, he'll go that much farther.
• 51:45
  You give Iran a reason to kill more, because they already are the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
• 51:50
  They didn't need much then.
• 51:51
  So you give them nuclear weapons, boom, it's over, and they'll use them.
• 51:56
  So again, when you're looking at trying to look at the securing of energy that China needs, the securing of our national security with the with getting rid of Iran's weapons, the road to the Pacific runs through Tehran.
• 52:11
  It does.
• 52:12
  China's long-term strategy for a Taiwan conflict depends on a stable Middle Eastern oil Gulf states willing to sell outside the dollar system.
• 52:20
  An Iranian proxies capable of diverting U.S.
• 52:24
  naval assets away from the Indo-Pacific.
• 52:26
  Duh.
• 52:27
  This is a complete understanding.
• 52:29
  The war threatens all three pillars.
• 52:32
  A destabilized Iran can't guarantee oil flows.
• 52:36
  Gulf skates may align more closely with Washington if they perceive China as an unable to protect its regional partners.
• 52:43
  And the United States gains strategic bandwidth as Iranian proxies lose coordination and capabilities.
• 52:51
  China's strategic environment becomes more constrained, not less.
• 52:56
  This is what that went down.
• 52:58
  This is how it works.
• 53:01
  So to try to bring it full circle, and this is what I've been saying is that China's strategic bet on Iran and China's relationship with Iran has long been misunderstood as ideological alignment or anti-Western solidarity.
• 53:14
  That was never what it was.
• 53:16
  And so to bring it full circle, what President Trump did was to basically cut off between Venezuela and Iran, their oil supply, which would hurt their economy, slow it down so Taiwan could not be a factor in 27, because that's when the invasion was expected to take place.
• 53:35
  And China was making marine diesel, not land transportation diesel at two of their large refineries.
• 53:41
  Two years ago, they had they had switched from land transportation to marine diesel, which is naval for naval ships, which is for an invasion.
• 53:50
  If you're going by water, you need marine diesel.
• 53:53
  That's why they call it marine diesel.
• 53:56
  And Trump knew that.
• 53:58
  And so all of a sudden, here we go.
• 54:02
  And that is exactly China's Gulf strategy under the stress of China's ambitions in the region have always been narrow, narrower than what many assumed.
• 54:14
  And as many have said, it does not seek ideological alignment or regional dominance.
• 54:21
  In fact, the current conflict exposes the severe limits of Chinese influence.
• 54:25
  They just wanted dominance, but they were patient enough to do it in small bites over decades and decades and decades.
• 54:34
  And that's what makes them so terrifying is that they're willing, they're willing to go as long as it takes to win, even if it's a hundred years.
• 54:45
  We don't have that mentality.
• 54:48
  President Trump knew what he was doing, knew he had to do this and had to do it effectively because Iran had posed two risks.
• 54:56
  The oil for China and the threat of nuclear weapons, and between Iran and China having both of them, those things, China had the oil.
• 55:05
  They continued to grow their countries' GDP, their country's influence, the reach, the control, and Iran having nuclear weapons.
• 55:16
  There is no amount of money they would have taken.
• 55:18
  They would have wanted complete control of the entire United States.
• 55:21
  And they would have had it.
• 55:22
  They would have had it.
• 55:24
  And listen, we're not out of the woods yet.
• 55:27
  China's not stupid.
• 55:29
  They saw this coming.
• 55:30
  They've got other deals in place for oil to continue to replace any lost supply.
• 55:36
  And they're going to keep moving forward to take us out.
• 55:40
  But at least we won, as they say, won this round.
• 55:43
  And now we're looking at other areas, but we definitely won this war.
• 55:47
  And we won it the right way.
• 55:48
  And yeah, 100-dot oil sucks, but so does 11 nuclear weapons that are aimed at the United States that are buttons are pushed.
• 55:55
  I'll take the 100 oil over 11 nuclear weapons, smashing into the United States somewhere.
• 56:01
  So with this, we we've analyzed what we think is the proper way of which to take all the conspiracy theories, put them in the context of once understood show today.
• 56:12
  And we hope you enjoyed it because this is the reality of things.
• 56:15
  And it's not the only reality in the sense that we're going to have more wars, more issues.
• 56:20
  China's going to never go away.
• 56:21
  They're never going away.
• 56:22
  But at least today we live long and will prosper.
• 56:26
  And President Trump did the right things.
• 56:28
  I'm going to have a more on this on my next show that goes even deeper.
• 56:32
  And now what's going to happen?
• 56:33
  This is what happened now.
• 56:35
  This is what was happening before, during, and I'm going to finish the aftermath.
• 56:40
  I'm Christian Briggs, host of the On the Record.
• 56:43
  Thanks for joining me.
• 56:44
  Again, we're going to have another fabulous show.
• 56:46
  We're going to have part two of the China Iran entanglement.
• 56:49
  Thank you so much for joining.