Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 192 - 1/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 192 - 1/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 192 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Tuesday. The early part of our week rolls
• 0:37
  on and we got a lot to get to on a big Tuesday here, including a
• 0:42
  four pack of sweats that I have lined up for you.
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  Among them, three college basketball plays.
• 0:47
  We got a huge college basketball Super Tuesday, roughly 35 games.
• 0:51
  I could have had way more plays, but one thing I've learned over
• 0:54
  time limit your bets. Don't have too many bets.
• 0:57
  Hey, I want the action too, but let's try to isolate based on
• 1:00
  the data, the games that we feel are providing the most value,
• 1:04
  not based on opinion, but based on the information available to
• 1:07
  us. Bet splits, system matches, line
• 1:10
  moves, Ken palm rhythm edges, all the above.
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  So 3 plays in college basketball also have a play for you in the
• 1:15
  NHLA Good Rd. favorite system match.
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  And then going to finish up the pod with an early College
• 1:21
  Football Playoff bet. Obviously, we're down to the
• 1:23
  final four. I kind of hinted at this a
• 1:25
  little bit at the end of yesterday's pod and after the
• 1:28
  pod I said, you know what, let's pounce here.
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  Try to get the best number we can.
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  Good system match here on one of the two final four games.
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  So I will tell you what that is with a good rhythm edge as well
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  at the end of the pod. So a four pack today, college
• 1:41
  hoops, NHL and then the first bet here for the Final four in
• 1:44
  the College Football Playoff. Also, I do want to mention I
• 1:48
  want to invite everyone to the 4:00 PM rhythm live college
• 1:52
  basketball TikTok live stream. It's a mouthful there, but I
• 1:55
  will be on TikTok 4:00. I started this, I don't know, a
• 1:58
  month ago and it's been really fun.
• 2:01
  I'm learning how to use TikTok. I feel like I'm one of you
• 2:03
  youths now, but I am looking forward to that today at 4:00.
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  So please, if you're on TikTok or you want to download it, you
• 2:11
  can join me at 4:00. I'll go live from the rhythm
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  TikTok and we'll be breaking down all the games, mostly
• 2:17
  college hoops, but probably fit in a few other bets there and
• 2:20
  then Answer your questions, but it'll give you a chance to
• 2:23
  specifically ask any questions about rhythm.
• 2:26
  Get more accustomed to using rhythm.
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  We talked about rhythm obviously every day on the pod, but this
• 2:31
  is just a specific rhythm live stream similar to the Sunday
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  sweats that James Santor and I do.
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  So hope to see you guys there at 4:00 PM.
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  Now, looking back to our last night, we eked out a winning
• 2:41
  night, 2 and 1 + 0.23 units, quarter of a unit.
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  I'll take that. Every time we had some epic
• 2:48
  wins, Lamar came through for the team member.
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  We bought low. That line moved a little bit
• 2:52
  downward away from Lamar, but we bought low.
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  Ken Palm had everything, winning by 6.
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  It was a little bit close at one point, and then Lamar really
• 3:00
  turned it on late. So that was great to see.
• 3:02
  But the play of the night, man, Oh my God, I stayed up till 1:00
• 3:05
  AM. The Sacramento Kings, Oh my God,
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  they had to lead at half. Then they blew it in the
• 3:11
  second-half, got down by 17 points and then what happened?
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  They roared back. They found a way to tie it force
• 3:18
  overtime. Then it went to 1st overtime,
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  then second overtime. They had actually had a chance
• 3:23
  to win at the at the end of the first overtime, if who's at Keon
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  Ellis, he got actually fouled. They're down by 1 if he made
• 3:30
  both free throws to win the game.
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  But luckily second overtime the Kings pulled away and won an
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  absolute thriller on the money line.
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  So shout out golf clap to the Sacramento Kings epic sweat last
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  night. Now, the only loser was
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  Wisconsin, Rutgers over really. I think the angle there, I think
• 3:47
  we had a pretty good cap on that one.
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  But one thing that I was not aware of, which hurt us a lot in
• 3:52
  that total is that the guy was excited to sweat.
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  Ron Harper Junior, he was sick. He really wasn't effective.
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  He pretty much only played a few minutes.
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  You come up short on the total, if Harper Junior is healthy
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  again, you probably would have had a good chance of cashing
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  that over. But either way, I'll take a
• 4:09
  winning night any day of the week. 2 and 1 + 0.23 units to
• 4:13
  start our week. So with that being said, so you
• 4:16
  can get a little bit of a streak going here guys.
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  I want to start with, as I mentioned, college hoops because
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  it's a great college hoops night.
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  We're getting into the Super Tuesday's which are pretty
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  awesome and I want to start with a game that happens to be the
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  most heavily bet game of the night and arguably one of the
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  sharpest bets of the night. Tennessee and Florida 7:00
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  tonight. Tennessee comes in 14 and O
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  ranked first in the country, undefeated.
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  The best team in the country, the Volunteers.
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  They actually just took down Arkansas 76 to 52 covered as an
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  11 1/2 point home favorite. They are now going to the swamp
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  where they'll face Florida who's 13 and one ranked 8th.
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  Just had their first loss of the year.
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  They lost to Kentucky one O 6100 did not cover as a 3 1/2 point
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  Rd. dog. So right off the bat,
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  Tennessee's undefeated. Florida's a good team too.
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  Who's favorite? It's got to be Tennessee, right?
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  No Florida is favored in this one.
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  That's the first clue here to where the smart money is
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  probably leaning. So you look at this line open
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  around Florida -2 1/2 at home. Some shops are a little lower.
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  I saw like a one 1 1/2 even. But right off the bat, you know,
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  public. Says the wrong team is favored.
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  Tennessee. They're undefeated.
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  You got to take the points, man. The books got this one wrong.
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  Well, books may lose their bets, but the lines are, are true.
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  They're, these are not trap lines based on public.
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  Basically, they're not. The books aren't trying to fool
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  you. They're putting out the number
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  based on their power ratings and their adjustments to the spread,
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  homecourt injuries, all that kind of stuff.
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  But the public falls into a trap based on perception.
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  So Florida opens as a, let's call it around a 2 1/2 point
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  home favorite. They're up to -3 and even at -3
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  1/2 at quite a few shops here. So even though the public's
• 5:56
  loading up on Tennessee at DraftKings, 63% of bets are
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  going Volunteers in the points. I get it.
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  How do you not take 3 1/2 with Tennessee, the top team in the
• 6:04
  country? But here's one thing I learned a
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  very long time ago in sports betting.
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  If it looks fishy, looks too good to be true, doesn't make
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  sense. Usually there's a reason for it.
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  So public is taking the trendy dog, Tennessee Volunteers.
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  However, even though roughly 2/3 of bets are on Tennessee, the
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  line is moving toward Florida -2 1/2 up to -3 -, 3 1/2.
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  This tells us boom, sharp reverse line movement fade.
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  The trendy dog opportunity. Most heavily bet game of the
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  night public on Tennessee lines going to Florida.
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  Now DraftKings has a really good bet split in favor of the
• 6:37
  Gators. They're only getting 37% of
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  spread bets, but 71% of spread dollars.
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  So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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  They're also contrarian in the most heavily bet game of the
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  night, so I'll take that. But here's where it gets
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  important to me. Money lining, short home
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  favorites. I try to scream this from the
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  rooftops. You know, some people disagree
• 6:55
  and say, hey, you're paying too much juice.
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  You might as well just you know, I always get this.
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  But if you're confident in the play, just lay the points.
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  It's not about being confident. It's about trying to increase
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  your chances of winning. So I went money line with
• 7:07
  Florida. Now shop around.
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  I got Florida at -164 at FanDuel.
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  But here's what another reason why to like this, this money
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  line here. Good bets.
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  What 1st 42% bets 61% dollars, but I have a really good system
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  match in terms of straight up on the money line.
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  So when you get 2 ranked teams playing each other again.
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  Tennessee #1 Florida #8 The home favorite in that matchup is 11
• 7:32
  and three straight up this year 79 percent, 145 and 39 also 79%
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  with a 15% ROI since 2021. So when 2 ranked teams play each
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  other, the home favorite typically wins the game 8 out of
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  10 times. Also like the fact that Florida
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  hopefully their offense will come to play tonight.
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  They're averaging 88 points a game versus 80 for Tennessee.
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  And it is a bit of a buy low sell high because Florida is
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  coming off a loss to Kentucky. Tennessee obviously undefeated
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  and they're rolling through everyone.
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  So I kind of like the fact that maybe Florida bounce back spot
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  buy low spot ultimate sell high on Tennessee.
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  But again, most heavily back game of the night, everybody and
• 8:12
  their mothers on the Volunteers. This line is going to the
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  Gators. So say it with me.
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  Chomp chomp, let's go Florida Gators.
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  I money line the Gators again. If the Gators were to win by one
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  or two or even 3 and I lose a 3 1/2, I, I wouldn't be able to
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  sleep at night. So let's go money line.
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  I'll pay a little juice to just say hey, let's win the game.
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  I do want to mention here Rhythm has the Gators -3.7.
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  So it's good to see Rhythm basically with an edge in favor
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  of Florida. So let's go Gators Chomp chomp
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  money line -164 next bet for you, let's go to Oklahoma State
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  at home facing Kansas State. 8:00 game here tonight.
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  K State's coming in seven and six, but they have lost four of
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  their last five. Just lost the TCU 6362.
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  But they did cover that game as a 3 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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  You know, Oklahoma State 8:00 and 5:00 on the year.
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  They've also struggled a bit recently.
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  They've lost two straight, just got rolled by WVU 69 to 50,
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  didn't cover as an 8 point Rd. dog.
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  So what have you seen across the market here?
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  Well, pretty consistent movement in favor of Oklahoma State.
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  Oklahoma State open this game around A1 or 1 1/2 point home
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  favorite, very short number and all movement liability is in
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  favor of Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is in bed up -1
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  -, 1 1/2 up to now -2 1/2. Some shops even up as high as
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  -3. So it's been pretty consistent
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  line moving toward Oklahoma State.
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  Now, what I like about OK State in particular, aside from the
• 9:39
  line move is that the public is right down the middle.
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  They don't know where to go. You know, they see two
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  relatively equal teams, you know, OK State, yeah, better
• 9:47
  record laying a short number. But also Kansas State, you know,
• 9:50
  how do you not take the points? So Publix down the middle, they
• 9:53
  don't know what to do 5050. But what do we always talk
• 9:56
  about? 5050 tickets right down the
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  middle? Theoretically, in a vacuum, the
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  line shouldn't move at all because basically the odds
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  makers have balanced action. No reason to adjust the number.
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  So 5050 bet splits, we look for a line move because that's a
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  clue and indicator of where the smart money's leaning.
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  So 5050. Yet the line move to the Cowboys
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  makes me like Oklahoma State here, guys.
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  Oklahoma State pretty good bet split as well.
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  They're only getting 47% of bets, but 76% of dollars at
• 10:24
  DraftKings. So good low bets, higher dollars
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  bet split. Once again, this is a money line
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  play for me. Not going to lay A2, 2 1/2, even
• 10:32
  a three have a win by 1 and I lose my bet.
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  So I was I money lined Oklahoma State -150.
• 10:37
  I got that at ESPN. Bet Rhythm has Oklahoma State -2
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  so not a huge edge there, but at least Rhythm has them winning
• 10:45
  this game. Also, I'm going to bank on a
• 10:47
  couple things. One free throw shooting.
• 10:50
  Notice the big difference and an advantage in favor of the
• 10:53
  Cowboys. They're shooting 74% from the
• 10:55
  line. Kansas State's only shooting
• 10:58
  67%. So if this becomes a close game
• 11:00
  down the stretch, let's have the Cowboys make their free throws.
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  And then also home Rd. splits OK State, five and one at home this
• 11:07
  year. Kansas State O and three on the
• 11:10
  road. So hopefully we get some home
• 11:11
  cooking here, but out all up here guys, public split yet
• 11:14
  lines going to the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
• 11:17
  I'm going OK State here on the money line.
• 11:19
  I got them at -150 at ESPN bet last bet of the night again, we
• 11:24
  got a three pack. Let's try to get two of these at
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  least Michigan and UCLA. So this is a late night game.
• 11:30
  10:00 another 2 ranked teams facing off match up here.
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  So remember that system match I just told you.
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  But anyway, going in, we have Michigan Wolverines 11 and 3
• 11:41
  ranked 24th in the country. They've won three straight, just
• 11:44
  beat USC 85 to 74, covered as a 5 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 11:49
  Meanwhile, UCLA 11 and 3 ranked 22nd, but they've lost two of
• 11:52
  their last three. They just lost in Nebraska 6658
• 11:56
  did not cover as a 2 1/2 point Rd. dog.
• 11:58
  So what do we see across the market here?
• 12:01
  Well, not a massive steam move, but all liability appears to be
• 12:04
  on UCLAI, like the Bruins on the money line here, the Bruins
• 12:08
  opened at -2 1/2. And if you look at basically all
• 12:12
  the books, it's it's still 2 1/2 at most shops, but it's -2 1/2
• 12:16
  -, 115 juiced up toward UCLA. And then if you look at some
• 12:21
  line history, like if you have a good live odds page, you should
• 12:24
  be able to like double click the odds from any book and it'll
• 12:27
  pull up line history for you. It's pretty standard no matter
• 12:30
  what pot odds page you look at. But if you look at the history,
• 12:34
  which again, if you look at the current number, open versus
• 12:37
  current, you can see just, you know, open versus what it is
• 12:39
  now, but it doesn't tell you where it was in between.
• 12:42
  And I think that's important because it tells you where there
• 12:45
  was liability, you know, where there was any buyback.
• 12:48
  So UCLA -2 1/2 still -2 1/2 juiced up.
• 12:51
  But if you look at the line history, a lot of shops have
• 12:54
  gotten to three or even 3 1/2 earlier today.
• 12:57
  So that tells me all movement liability on UCLA.
• 13:00
  This line is also never gotten down to two.
• 13:03
  So it's always stayed basically same or in favor of UCLA.
• 13:07
  Now looking at the bet splits at DraftKings, UCLA is getting 61%
• 13:11
  of spread bets, 71% of spread dollars at circa 50% of bets on
• 13:17
  UCLA, 60% of dollars on UCLA. So both books are showing a low
• 13:22
  bets higher dollars bet split. I'm a money line guy as I
• 13:25
  mentioned. So UCLA, I'm money line to UCLA
• 13:29
  at -145 that was at ESPN bet. So once again, 2 ranked teams
• 13:34
  take the home favorite 11 and three this year, 79% since 2021.
• 13:40
  Get into the numbers a little bit.
• 13:41
  UCLA I'm going to bank on their defense hopefully holding down
• 13:43
  Michigan, their fourth in the country and adjusted efficiency
• 13:47
  and they take care of them all. Their 148th in turnovers
• 13:50
  turnover percentage, which isn't great, but I noticed that
• 13:53
  Michigan is 334. They turn it over quite a bit.
• 13:57
  Another buy low, sell high. Bruins off a loss and have lost
• 14:01
  two or three versus a dog that we can sell high on with
• 14:05
  Michigan, who's won three straight.
• 14:07
  Lastly, UCLA, some home cooking. They're 8 and O at home this
• 14:10
  season. Adding in the rhythm edge.
• 14:13
  I have two rhythm models here, UCLA -2.3 and UCLA -3.3.
• 14:18
  So rhythms with us here on UCLA. So add it all up.
• 14:22
  Juice liability system, matches, percentages.
• 14:25
  I'm going UCLA guys, money line -145 S 3 money line plays here.
• 14:30
  Can we get 2 out of 3 Gators, Oklahoma State and UCLA now I'll
• 14:36
  play for you in the NHL. There's one game here that
• 14:38
  caught my eye, Dallas Stars and the New York Rangers.
• 14:43
  So going to this one, let me just pull up my breakdown for
• 14:48
  this one as if you're like me, you have a million tabs and
• 14:51
  sometimes you can't find them all.
• 14:52
  But anyway, 7:00 game. If you want to sweat it, it is
• 14:55
  on ESPN Plus. Dallas comes in 2413 and one
• 15:00
  Rangers 1820 and one Now if you look at Dallas, they've won four
• 15:04
  straight Rangers who are in a really bad spot.
• 15:07
  They have won two of their last three.
• 15:09
  But it looks to me like there's a clear line move in system
• 15:11
  match advantage on the Dallas Stars this game open to the
• 15:15
  Dallas Stars listed as low as like -140 now they're all the
• 15:19
  way up to -165 S huge steam here on the Dallas Stars.
• 15:24
  Not a huge proponent of bet splits in hockey just because
• 15:27
  you know, bet splits. Typically you want at least try
• 15:29
  to go contrarian. But hockey's a low bet sport so
• 15:32
  they don't mean as much. But I do like to have at least
• 15:34
  low bets, higher dollars tells me you know of the of the
• 15:37
  betters who are playing these hockey games.
• 15:39
  Can we at least get some sharp money in terms of more handle
• 15:43
  versus bets? And you do have that on Dallas
• 15:45
  tonight at DraftKings. Dallas is getting 74% of money
• 15:48
  line bets but 83% of money line dollars.
• 15:51
  And at Circa, only 40% of bets on Dallas, but over 90% of money
• 15:56
  on Dallas. So that really jives with that
• 15:58
  big steam move in favor of the Stars.
• 16:00
  Then we get into some intangibles here.
• 16:03
  Dallas rest first tired play. Dallas last played on the 4th.
• 16:07
  Rangers last played on the 5th. And then if you look a little
• 16:10
  bit deeper here, Dallas is playing their second game in
• 16:13
  five days. Rangers are playing their third
• 16:15
  game in four days. So hopefully arrested, you got
• 16:18
  your legs here basically tonight for Dallas versus Rangers.
• 16:21
  Hopefully you have heavy legs offensively.
• 16:23
  Dallas has been better. Three-point two goals game
• 16:25
  versus 2.9. Defensively, they're better,
• 16:28
  giving up 2.5 a game versus 3.2. Also hopefully an advantage here
• 16:34
  and net with Jake Ottinger expected to get the start.
• 16:37
  He's 19, nine and one. 2.35 goals against, 9/10 save
• 16:41
  percentage. And Jonathan Quick again, I I
• 16:45
  don't want to poke the bear because I bet against Quick last
• 16:47
  time and he beat me when I was on the Bruins.
• 16:49
  But six and five. 2.8 three goals against, nine O 3 save
• 16:54
  percentage. But also let's look at in the
• 16:56
  month of January, Jake Ottinger in the month of January, 1.96
• 17:00
  goals against Jonathan Quick in the month of January, 3.57 goals
• 17:05
  against. Then a couple system matches
• 17:08
  here on Dallas 1 is a rested Rd. favorite that has had at least
• 17:12
  three days off that system on the years 4927 or sorry, 49 and
• 17:17
  2764 percent, 4% ROI. Also a sweet spot Rd. favorite
• 17:24
  with steam 39 and 2165 percent, 3% ROI.
• 17:29
  So that sweet spot is if you're a road favorite between -150 and
• 17:33
  -200 and you've had at least $0.10 of steam in your favor.
• 17:37
  Both are matching with Dallas. So hopefully the Stars come to
• 17:41
  play here tonight at Madison Square Garden.
• 17:43
  I got Dallas -165 on the money line.
• 17:45
  I got that from Caesars. Now let's wet your whistle with
• 17:50
  a little bit of College Football Playoff talk.
• 17:53
  SO2 games, Notre Dame, Penn State.
• 17:55
  That is on Thursday and then Friday we have Ohio State,
• 17:59
  Texas. I want to focus on Notre Dame,
• 18:02
  Penn State because I put in a bet on this game and I'm going
• 18:05
  to tell you what it is. So going into it, Notre Dame 13
• 18:09
  and one, they're the seven seed. Remember they beat Indiana 2717,
• 18:14
  then they beat Georgia 23 to 10. Penn State, the sixth seed, 13
• 18:17
  and 2. They took down SMU 38 to 10 and
• 18:21
  then Boise 31 to 14. What have we seen across the
• 18:24
  market here? Well, this game opened Notre
• 18:28
  Dame. And by the way, this is going to
• 18:29
  be at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, home of the Dolphins.
• 18:33
  It's also a, what is it 730 on ESPN.
• 18:36
  But we've seen pretty clear movement in favor of the Irish.
• 18:40
  I'm going with the Irish in this one, guys.
• 18:42
  Irish on the money line. I got them at -132 Couple things
• 18:46
  to like about the Irish. One is the line movement in
• 18:49
  their favor. They open this game as a very
• 18:51
  short -1 1/2 neutral site favorite.
• 18:54
  They've now been bet up to -2 and some shops even going to -2
• 18:58
  1/2. And I mentioned this at the end
• 18:59
  of the pod yesterday, but you're pretty much static at 1 1/2.
• 19:03
  And then really over the last 2448 hours, you've seen this
• 19:07
  jump to two 2 1/2 toward Notre Dame.
• 19:09
  So we're getting closer to kick off.
• 19:12
  This isn't technically game day Steam but basically late
• 19:15
  breaking money is going toward Notre Dame.
• 19:18
  Notre Dame has a really good money line split at Circa out in
• 19:21
  Vegas that caters to sharp betters.
• 19:23
  Only 37% of money line bets but 61% of money line dollars.
• 19:29
  And then also here is a trend that again trends sometimes are
• 19:33
  meaningless but this one hopefully continues.
• 19:37
  Just chalk in these college football playoffs.
• 19:39
  Favorites in the College Football Playoffs are 8, no
• 19:43
  straight up, and they are 7 and one against the spread.
• 19:46
  So chalk in these big important, you know, post season games has
• 19:50
  done very well. The chalk play here is Notre
• 19:53
  Dame. I'm going to bank on Notre
• 19:55
  Dame's defense. They're both teams are really
• 19:57
  good defensively, but they're giving up 13.6 a game versus
• 20:00
  15.8 for Penn State. And then also strength the
• 20:03
  schedule. You know, you just went through
• 20:06
  Georgia. I mean, I'm not going to give a
• 20:07
  ton to Indiana. Don't get me started on Mr.
• 20:10
  Tough Guy Signetti. But beating Georgia, big SEC
• 20:13
  team, I know they had their backup quarterback, but I
• 20:15
  thought that was kind of impressive.
• 20:17
  Penn State played SMU in Boise. I mean, those are two smaller
• 20:20
  schools. Yeah, they they blew him out,
• 20:23
  but doesn't impress me that much.
• 20:25
  Penn State injuries, Abdul Carter, who could be a top pick,
• 20:30
  He's a little bit banged up. I know Jeremiah Love, the
• 20:33
  running back for Notre Dame is a little banged up as well.
• 20:35
  But I'm also going to put in a little stock into the coaching
• 20:38
  matchup. I'm a big believer in Marcus
• 20:40
  Freeman. I, I just, I like the cut of his
• 20:42
  jib, as I like to say, versus James Franklin, who, you know,
• 20:46
  has the kind of the, I don't know, the monkey on his back of
• 20:49
  never winning the big game. Now he's won some big games
• 20:51
  here. He's got him in the final Four,
• 20:52
  so give him credit. But I like to kind of just the,
• 20:55
  the toughness, the mindset of Freeman greater than Franklin.
• 20:59
  And then little cherry on top here, I open my rhythm app.
• 21:03
  I got 2 models on this game. One prediction says Notre Dame
• 21:07
  should be -2.6, the other one says Notre Dame should be -4.4.
• 21:12
  So even if you go 2.6, again, that's in line with this market
• 21:16
  move. So we've seen chalk do very well
• 21:18
  in the postseason. Again, 8 and O straight up seven
• 21:21
  and one ATS. We got a line move toward the
• 21:23
  Irish. Let's win the damn game for
• 21:26
  Rudy, let's go Irish. I money lined Notre Dame at -132
• 21:31
  at FanDuel. So that about does it for
• 21:34
  episode 192 of the All Systems Go Sports betting pod powered by
• 21:38
  Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 21:40
  where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
• 21:43
  Thank you for taking the time out of your busy lives to devote
• 21:47
  30 minutes to hopefully sitting back and listen to some sharp
• 21:50
  betting breakdowns. Maybe you come to the pod with,
• 21:52
  you know, a notebook of your plays and you listen to maybe
• 21:55
  some overlap. Maybe you got a busy life and
• 21:58
  you don't have time to do these breakdowns.
• 22:00
  I hope that I am providing good insights that are again
• 22:02
  data-driven. Will they all win?
• 22:03
  No betting's hard, but hope you guys always know when you listen
• 22:07
  to the pod. These are data-driven back
• 22:09
  plays. They're not opinion, they're not
• 22:10
  bias. That being said, if you do enjoy
• 22:12
  the pod, could you please do me a solid?
• 22:15
  If you haven't done it yet, give this podcast a five star review.
• 22:18
  It means a lot to help us to continue to grow the pod.
• 22:21
  We just broke 305 star reviews, so I very much appreciate that.
• 22:26
  Let's get to 400 by March Madness.
• 22:28
  Wouldn't that be nice? But please five star review on
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  Spotify or iTunes if you want to recommend the pod to a friend or
• 22:35
  click the follow button. That way you'll get alerted as
• 22:37
  soon as it drops each day. That would also be great.
• 22:40
  Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, how
• 22:43
  to interpret the market, how to read the market, how to
• 22:46
  interpret line movement and percentages and bet splits and
• 22:49
  system matches. Any little angles We talked
• 22:52
  about fading, trendy dog going contrarian, flat betting, money
• 22:57
  lining, short favorites. If the pod has helped you to
• 22:59
  become a sharper better and you want to learn more about
• 23:01
  data-driven betting or you want to let me know you appreciate
• 23:04
  the pod, there's one thing you can do for me.
• 23:06
  You could buy my book. Give it to you, give it to
• 23:09
  yourself, give it to a friend, give it to a colleague, whatever
• 23:12
  you want to do, it would mean a lot.
• 23:13
  All you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
• 23:16
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 23:18
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 23:20
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 23:23
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 23:25
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 23:28
  a bankroll management plan, how to go contrarian.
• 23:31
  It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 23:33
  Betting. So grab a copy, pick one up,
• 23:35
  bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you, and I'll buy you a
• 23:38
  beer or a ginger ale next. Have you signed up for a 7 day
• 23:43
  free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
• 23:46
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 23:47
  They help me win. I'm confident they're going to
• 23:49
  help you win. So of course with Rhythm has a
• 23:52
  fantastic job of giving us AI backed models and predictions
• 23:56
  for game bets and player props. Juice Reel also a great app.
• 24:00
  You can always support the pod by signing up for the best bets
• 24:04
  that you can follow on Juice Reel from the all systems Go
• 24:06
  pod. It's 499 a week.
• 24:08
  No, not 499. This isn't a Vegas Dave special
• 24:11
  $4.99. Does this pod basically provide
• 24:15
  you $1.00 worth of insight each week or each day?
• 24:19
  I should say I hope it does. If you want to sign up, you can
• 24:22
  click the links that I tweet each day late afternoon for my
• 24:25
  Twitter account at Josh under score insights.
• 24:27
  You can also download juice real, go to the social tab,
• 24:31
  click find juicers, type in ASG under score podcast.
• 24:35
  But also you can follow the robo Jackson best bet pics, which
• 24:38
  have been doing very well recently.
• 24:40
  You can look at sharp mush indicators where the smart
• 24:43
  money's on one side and the bad betters in the app or you know,
• 24:46
  yeah, there's a there's a term. What is it?
• 24:48
  I think it's profit deficient betters or something like that.
• 24:51
  Another way to put it, but that's a great indicator.
• 24:55
  And then also looking at, you know, shop for the best line
• 24:57
  futures prices and dollar breakdowns on every game.
• 25:00
  So juice real and rhythm 2 great apps.
• 25:02
  You should go download them today.
• 25:05
  So that about does it. Another pod here in the books,
• 25:07
  guys. I'm going to leave you with a
• 25:08
  couple things. One, whether I see you at the
• 25:11
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
• 25:14
  in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
• 25:18
  at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
• 25:21
  Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
• 25:22
  Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
• 25:25
  get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 25:27
  number runners with lowest use possible as found at the South
• 25:29
  Point or sweat and sharp contrary and plays jumping in
• 25:33
  the stadium swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 25:35
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me a Lamar
• 25:39
  ticket from last night. And boy, are you going to show
• 25:41
  me a Sacramento Kings ticket. If if you watch that game, you
• 25:45
  know what I'm talking about. If you didn't, maybe you just
• 25:47
  woke up and saw they won. That was an unbelievable,
• 25:50
  incredible sweat. They were down by 17, clawed
• 25:54
  their way back. They fell behind and overtimes,
• 25:56
  you know, scratched and clawed. Just an absolute incredible win
• 26:00
  by the Kings. So Doug Christie, you're a good
• 26:03
  coach. I like you, but anyway, guys,
• 26:05
  flash me a Kings ticket, a Lamar ticket.
• 26:07
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 26:09
  We'll post about the book and sweat some sharp data-driven
• 26:12
  plays tonight. As always, guys, I'll leave you
• 26:15
  with this. Win, lose or draw, stick to the
• 26:17
  model, stick to the blueprint. If we can do that, if we can bet
• 26:21
  games with our head and not our heart against the public, with
• 26:23
  that, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
• 26:26
  get some closing line value. Will every sharp bet win?
• 26:30
  Unfortunately, not betting's hard.
• 26:32
  Got to overcome the really sharp lines, the odds maker set, got
• 26:35
  to beat the juice, got to avoid bad beats.
• 26:37
  But if we can stay true to that model, the sharp contrarian
• 26:41
  data-driven model where we're with the sharps, with the house
• 26:44
  against the public, beating closing lines, flat betting and
• 26:47
  not parlaying, if we can do that long term, we're going to be
• 26:50
  successful sports bettors. So have a great night everybody.
• 26:53
  I hope to see you at 4:00 with the Rhythm TikTok college
• 26:57
  basketball live stream again, download TikTok, or if you
• 27:01
  already have it, you can just search Rhythm.
• 27:03
  But I'll be going live at 4:00. I hope to see you there.
• 27:06
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.
• 27:08
  And we'll be right back at it for tomorrow, which will be
• 27:10
  episode 193 of the ASG Pod powered by Rhythm.
• 27:15
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.