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ESPN's Seth Walder on Saints Playoff Odds, FPI Rankings & NFL Outlook · AFR Saints

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  Speaker 1: and as always, our Thursday show is presented by Decision
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  Speaker 1: Critical concier Nursing. We're into full on talking season, although
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  Speaker 1: that's a bit overused. One of the things that I
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  Speaker 1: like about ESPN's FPI is it's not just unfounded opinions.
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  Speaker 1: There's actually some objective data and metrics behind it. So
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  Speaker 1: why Seth Walder from ESPN dot com it's good enough
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  Speaker 1: to hang out with us for a few minutes and
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  Speaker 1: explain the updated FPI metric center out there what it
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  Speaker 1: means for the Saints. Hey, Seth, we appreciate the time.
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  Speaker 1: How are you?
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  Speaker 2: I'm doing great?
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  Speaker 1: How are you, uh, really good? I think there's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of optimism around the Saints. I'm curious if it's unfounded,
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  Speaker 1: and as I look through the FPI, maybe it might be.
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  Speaker 1: Let's let's let's start hear those, Seth. For those who
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  Speaker 1: are unindoctrinated, explain to us what FPI is.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, So.
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  Speaker 3: FBI is our Football Power Index. It is our ratings
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  Speaker 3: and prediction and projection system that we use not just
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  Speaker 3: in the preseason but throughout the year. So in the preseason,
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  Speaker 3: the way it works it is it's mostly based on
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  Speaker 3: information from the betting market, and then there's some other
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  Speaker 3: stuff on the edges, but that's that's the.
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  Speaker 2: Majority of the input.
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  Speaker 3: Once we go into the season, what happens is it
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  Speaker 3: evaluates each team on every play, their sort of efficiency
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  Speaker 3: on offensive special teams on a play level, adjusting for
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  Speaker 3: the quality of hone in and we use that to
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  Speaker 3: update the rating, and at any given point, whether that's
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  Speaker 3: now or later in the season, we simulate out the
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  Speaker 3: season ten or twenty thousand times, and that informs our
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  Speaker 3: projections to determine the likelihood of a team making the playoffs,
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  Speaker 3: winning the Super Bowl, getting the number.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, I think we might have lost Seth there. Oh there,
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  Speaker 1: there you are, Seth. Sorry we lost you there. For
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  Speaker 1: a quick second. You were talking about simulating the season. No,
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  Speaker 1: you were talking about simulating the season twenty thousand times,
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  Speaker 1: and then we kind of dip there for second.
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  Speaker 3: That informs our projections to get a chance to get
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  Speaker 3: to make the super Bowl, or win win your division,
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  Speaker 3: or be the number one pick. And so we do
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  Speaker 3: that every single day from this point out.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so naturally my eyes are trained to go, right,
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  Speaker 1: where are the Saints? I look at the FPI rankings
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  Speaker 1: and the Saints are twenty fifth and there's a minus
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  Speaker 1: two point seven next to it. Explain what I'm what
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  Speaker 1: I should make of that?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so the minus two point seven, What that means
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  Speaker 3: is that we think the Saints would be two point
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  Speaker 3: seven point underdogs on average on a neutral field against
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  Speaker 3: an average opponent on a neutral field, and we can
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  Speaker 3: use that to compare against other teams. So like if
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  Speaker 3: the Saints were to play the Dolphins minus five point eight,
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  Speaker 3: we would make the Saints uh three, you know, about
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  Speaker 3: a field goal favorite.
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  Speaker 2: Over Miami on a neutral field.
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  Speaker 3: But if they were to play, say the Lions plus
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  Speaker 3: two point five, that we would make the Lions roughly
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  Speaker 3: five point favorites over New Orleans. So that's that's what
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  Speaker 3: that's that is what that number is. Talent.
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  Speaker 1: There's when I look at FPI said there's a better
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  Speaker 1: chance of the Saints to get the number one overall
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  Speaker 1: pick then to win the Super Bowl, which is that's
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  Speaker 1: probably true for most teams I would assume in the NFL.
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  Speaker 1: But when you look at New Orleans, what does the metric?
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  Speaker 1: What does FPI say about the Saints this year?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that with New Orleans is we look
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  Speaker 3: at a team like them, and I know that there's
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  Speaker 3: optimism on New Orleans and I totally get it. But ultimately,
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  Speaker 3: even though Tyler Shuck I would say out for form
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  Speaker 3: expectations that I like a lot of life thought Tyler
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  Speaker 3: Shuck last year, this is still a team. The ranks
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  Speaker 3: twenty seventh an EPA pri players like offensive efficiency on offense,
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  Speaker 3: and they were better than that of defense. But offense
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  Speaker 3: is what carries the day. And Tyler Shuck again, I
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  Speaker 3: do think that he's played better than a lot of
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  Speaker 3: people thought, but he still was below average when we
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  Speaker 3: look at QBR or efficiency numbers. And so the FPI
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  Speaker 3: is making in the win total, which is going to
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  Speaker 3: incorporate all of that and also information about the specific quarterbacks,
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  Speaker 3: and I think that.
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  Speaker 2: It's basically telling us, right, it's gonna.
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  Speaker 3: Seem more in order to have a more optimistic forecastment. Now,
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  Speaker 3: I think that there's definitely a possibility of young quarterbacks
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  Speaker 3: like Tyler Shuck that you.
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  Speaker 2: Get growth thought we haven't seen so far, as I think.
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  Speaker 3: A level of play that NBA, hey, this is a
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  Speaker 3: this isn't the playoff team for sure. Now I think
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  Speaker 3: a lot can happen in the NFC South. So that
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  Speaker 3: is that is your other bit of optimism.
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  Speaker 1: Obviously, a small sample size with Tyler Shuck, just the
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  Speaker 1: nine starts, so I think Seth, I think the optimism
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  Speaker 1: here I would define as cautious optimism, which just a
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  Speaker 1: nine game sample and and a weak division. As you mentioned,
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  Speaker 1: Seth Walder is our guest here from ESPN talking about
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  Speaker 1: the new FPI rankings that are out at seth Walder
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  Speaker 1: Is where you can give them a follow is anybody
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  Speaker 1: in the NFC South. Does anybody in the NFC South
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  Speaker 1: project as maybe favorable from FPI.
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  Speaker 3: Well, so, you know what, let me just call up
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  Speaker 3: real quick on shock because you made a really good
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  Speaker 3: point about the nine game and I think that matters
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  Speaker 3: a lot. Heal, which is is going to start with
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  Speaker 3: any second round pick, they're probably that that is the move. Like,
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  Speaker 3: until we've seen them, it's going to assume they're not
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  Speaker 3: many despectives. And then when you get nine games, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: I'm sure that rating in the model has improved.
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  Speaker 2: But not by a lot.
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  Speaker 3: We only have that nine game sample. Okay, so the
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  Speaker 3: rest of the NFC South, let's see Tampa Bay. We
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  Speaker 3: kind of have as being pretty decently out ahead of
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  Speaker 3: the rest of them. Forty one percent chance that Tampa
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  Speaker 3: Bay wins the division, and that is that's they're the favorite.
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  Speaker 3: The Bucks we have as the eighteenth n FPI, so
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  Speaker 3: they rank middle of the pack there. That's the best
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  Speaker 3: team in the division.
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  Speaker 1: When we look at some other big picture, uh sort
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  Speaker 1: of topics or angles. The most likely Super Bowl is
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  Speaker 1: Rams Bills.
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  Speaker 3: Why Well, for the Rams, I think, I mean, I
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  Speaker 3: don't know if I need to give the hard bell
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  Speaker 3: here because they are ready loaded on both sides of
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  Speaker 3: the ball.
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  Speaker 2: Now that, especially after the Miles Scarac trade, look as
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  Speaker 2: a team.
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  Speaker 3: That ranked second and easier for playoff offense the Rams
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  Speaker 3: and on defense they were a good defense.
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  Speaker 2: They had some issues especially at cornerbacks. They bring in Trent.
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  Speaker 3: McDuffie and Jalen Watson. Now they had Miles Garret and
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  Speaker 3: you say, hey, this looks like a pretty complete team. Now,
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  Speaker 3: I think there are some injury questions still, there may
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  Speaker 3: be fragile in that way, but the Rams are the favorites,
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  Speaker 3: I think deservedly. So Buffalo is a little more interesting
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  Speaker 3: to me because there are some questions. You got a
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  Speaker 3: new head coach, Joe Brady comes in, and you make.
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  Speaker 2: Me personally wonder what happens to that defense?
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  Speaker 3: Do you think it's possible Sean McDermott got more out
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  Speaker 3: of that defense than that out of a lackluster defensive roster.
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  Speaker 3: And now that he's gone, where do they go? But
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  Speaker 3: that being said, what's the most important thing. It's quarterback
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  Speaker 3: and I know it's simplistic, but the reality is Buffalo
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  Speaker 3: has the best quarterback in football and Josh Allen, and
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  Speaker 3: that takes you far. And so that's why we have
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  Speaker 3: Rams over Built and then Rams over Ravens as the
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  Speaker 3: two most likely Super Bowls coming this year.
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  Speaker 1: Best quarterback in football. No love for Patrick Mahomes coming
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  Speaker 1: off an injury.
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  Speaker 3: Oh, I mean, I don't think that over the last
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  Speaker 3: couple of years Homes sent on Josh Allen's level. Now,
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  Speaker 3: I like, I mean, that's just that's just what's been
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  Speaker 3: the case over the last.
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  Speaker 2: Couple of years. Malmes get back there.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, But if you're actually need to take one
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  Speaker 3: quarterback for this season, I'm thinking Josh Allen for sure.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, what about Look you mentioned Joe Brady. Obviously, he
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  Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow are forever linked with the twenty nineteen
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  Speaker 1: LSU Tigers, which people here of course love that team set.
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  Speaker 1: The Bengals last year were my pick to go to
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  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl after burrows amazing season two years ago.
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  Speaker 1: Obviously got hurt and everything blew up and their defense stunk,
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  Speaker 1: and it's what it was. But there's this I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at the FBI in Bengals and Rams is one of
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  Speaker 1: the top ten most likely super Bowls that we may
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  Speaker 1: see ninth on the list. What what did the computers
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  Speaker 1: think about Joe Burrow's return there in Cincinnati.
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  Speaker 2: I'll tell you why that is.
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  Speaker 3: There's one big reason that is feeling that number, and
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  Speaker 3: that is Cincinnati's schedule. They have the easiest schedule in
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  Speaker 3: the NFL this season according to FDI, and we saw
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  Speaker 3: what happened to New England just last year.
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  Speaker 2: They had the easiest schedule in the.
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  Speaker 3: League, held them the fourteen wins they ultimately get to
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  Speaker 3: the super Bowl. The Bengals ranked twelve in FTI, but
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  Speaker 3: they're the fourth most likely team to reach the playoffs,
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  Speaker 3: and that right there is the schedule factor.
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  Speaker 2: So I think that Joe Burrow.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we would expect a bounce backery certainly
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  Speaker 3: you would hope for health and if they can get that,
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  Speaker 3: Cincinnati is really set up to get back to the
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  Speaker 3: postseason again because of that schedule.
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  Speaker 1: Seth WALDERESPN dot com. FPI is out. A last thing
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  Speaker 1: for you the when you look at the whole like
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  Speaker 1: the whole picture, right, you're putting together big people. What
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  Speaker 1: for you based on what you, as a football fan observer,
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  Speaker 1: thought maybe was the biggest surprise at what the computer
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  Speaker 1: told you.
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  Speaker 2: It was the Patriots being fourteen.
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  Speaker 3: I was expecting that we were going to be not
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  Speaker 3: that high on the Patriots.
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  Speaker 2: I didn't think it was going to be that far.
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  Speaker 3: Fourteenth for a reigning conference champion.
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  Speaker 2: It's unfascinated. We have been doing this since twenty fifteen.
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  Speaker 3: We have never had a reigning conference champion outside the
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  Speaker 3: top ten in New England is all the way down
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  Speaker 3: at fourteen, and a lot of it comes back to
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  Speaker 3: the fact that while they accomplished a lot last year,
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  Speaker 3: they did it against a super soft schedule, and I
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  Speaker 3: think that is the biggest reason why.
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  Speaker 1: That He is Seth Walder from ESPN talk a little
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  Speaker 1: bit about the FPI. Check it out espn dot com.
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  Speaker 1: You can follow him at Seth Walder on X. Hey Seth,
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  Speaker 1: we appreciate the time man, Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you