Latest / Inside Politics / A funeral, secret plots, and 'wayward children' — another messy week for the Coalition

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A funeral, secret plots, and 'wayward children' — another messy week for the Coalition · Inside Politics

0:01
S1: Welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and I'm coming
0:05
S1: at you from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Well,
0:10
S1: the drama between the liberals and the nationals continued this
0:13
S1: week with what appears to be a total breakdown in
0:15
S1: the relationship between liberals leader Sussan Ley and Nationals leader
0:19
S1: David Littleproud. Meanwhile, Sussan Ley leadership remains in mortal peril
0:25
S1: and in a plot twist, David Littleproud now faces his
0:28
S1: own leadership challenge next week. I'm very pleased to be
0:32
S1: back from summer holidays with my podcasting partner in crime,
0:35
S1: our chief political correspondent Paul Chuckle. Hi Paul.
0:38
S2: So good to have you back.
0:39
S1: It's good to be back. And you know, we're really
0:42
S1: hitting the ground running this week. It's getting so crazy
0:44
S1: and dramatic there in Canberra that I almost feel like
0:46
S1: it needs to be its own reality TV show, like
0:49
S1: I'm a coalition MP. Get me out of here or something.
0:52
S1: The brand damage, as we were just saying, is totally incalculable,
0:54
S1: I think, to both of the coalition partners. But I
0:57
S1: just want to ask what the split actually means in
1:00
S1: practical terms, because I feel like they're still fighting over
1:03
S1: the sort of headline stuff, but nobody's really talked about
1:07
S1: what it will mean in terms of, you know, opposition
1:10
S1: party funding shadow ministerships. Dare I say it, you know,
1:14
S1: the policies that we're supposed to be seeing from the
1:16
S1: Liberal Party this year, even just whether or not they're
1:19
S1: going to sort of meet or talk to each other.
1:22
S1: What's your sort of understanding of how it's going to
1:24
S1: work in practice?
1:25
S2: Well, you mentioned some reality TV show names there. Shaun Carney,
1:29
S2: our excellent political columnist, today channelled succession, the dramatic fictional
1:35
S2: version of the of the Murdoch family, which was a
1:38
S2: super popular show in his column today when he said
1:40
S2: that in reference to coalition MPs. These are not serious people.
1:44
S1: Yeah.
1:45
S2: Which I think probably struck true to a lot of
1:47
S2: people watching the coalition over summer.
1:49
S1: Yeah. Which is famously what Logan Roy, the patriarch, says
1:51
S1: about his wayward children. Um, and I mean, I think
1:55
S1: it is extraordinary that, you know, the leaders of two
1:58
S1: major political parties which have this long, historically storied traditions
2:02
S1: and which have traditionally been the party of government together.
2:06
S1: More often than not in Australian history, you know, can't
2:09
S1: come to terms. They apparently can't stand each other to
2:11
S1: the point where they can't even have a phone call,
2:14
S1: let alone be in the same room with each other.
2:15
S1: There's talk of David Littleproud having shouted at Susan Lee
2:19
S1: down the phone. In any other organisation, any Australian, any listener,
2:23
S1: you know, listening to this will know that in their
2:26
S1: own workplaces this kind of behaviour would be completely unacceptable.
2:30
S1: I mean, it's it's kind of extraordinary, isn't it?
2:33
S2: You often hear this said about politics that this kind
2:35
S2: of behaviour wouldn't be acceptable anywhere else. And there are
2:39
S2: so many exceptions in this world and there's like toxic
2:41
S2: relationships and shouting matches. The stakes are high. And, you know,
2:45
S2: when the public gets an insight into it through a
2:47
S2: debacle like this one, where there's lots of reporting and interviews,
2:51
S2: where questions are asked about private conversations, it all looks
2:54
S2: extremely ugly and it cements in the minds of many
2:58
S2: voters what they suspect about Canberra, which is that it's
3:01
S2: a bit of a cesspit. People are power hungry. There
3:03
S2: are huge egos everywhere. And for the coalition, which has
3:06
S2: spent years trying to repair its image as the kind
3:11
S2: of competent party which they have so often been seen
3:15
S2: since World War two, where they've been in government for
3:18
S2: about two thirds or just more of the time since
3:21
S2: World War two. That's been shattered. And from just a
3:25
S2: few weeks ago, when I think we were talking about
3:27
S2: this earlier in the week, jacki, where the government looked
3:30
S2: on the ropes a little bit. Polling showed the Prime
3:33
S2: Minister's response to Bondi was in the minds of a
3:36
S2: majority of voters, poor for that political ascendancy, which was
3:40
S2: probably more fragile than we realised at the time over
3:43
S2: the summer for Sussan Ley. For that to have been
3:45
S2: ceded so quickly and for them to be in this
3:48
S2: state they're in now is quite extraordinary. Just in terms
3:51
S2: of where the split is at, it's a it's a
3:52
S2: technical point, but not been noted probably enough even by
3:56
S2: me in the reporting. The split hasn't been formalized yet.
4:00
S2: So last week, when this blowup occurred in Parliament, we
4:02
S2: know the nationals senators who were in the shadow the
4:06
S2: formal opposition shadow cabinet handed in their resignations because they
4:09
S2: breached shadow cabinet solidarity on on Labor's hate speech laws.
4:13
S2: Sussan Ley accepted those resignations because she agreed that they
4:16
S2: had done the wrong thing, even though David Littleproud says
4:19
S2: she should not have accepted those resignations, which is quite
4:22
S2: an odd argument. She did accept them, but all of
4:25
S2: the subsequent resignations that David Littleproud and his other frontbenchers
4:30
S2: put to Sussan Ley, effectively in solidarity with their nationals colleagues,
4:34
S2: have not yet been accepted formally by Sussan Ley, and
4:37
S2: the pair are yet to have a patch up conversation,
4:40
S2: which I think is not likely to yield anything but
4:44
S2: could potentially yield a resolution before Parliament returns next week.
4:49
S2: So we're still in this kind of point of stasis
4:51
S2: where the nationals have said they cannot not serve in
4:54
S2: Susan Lee's shadow cabinet. Susan Lee has not put liberals
4:58
S2: in the positions that were once held by nationals, and
5:01
S2: the nationals have not yet created this unorthodox novel kind
5:05
S2: of shadow shadow frontbench, which David Littleproud says he will
5:08
S2: do because there are many members of both the nationals
5:11
S2: and the Liberal parties who, behind the scenes, are working
5:13
S2: really hard to patch this up. It's very hard to
5:16
S2: see how that happens with the two leaders in their positions,
5:18
S2: because they've both climbed up to these positions where it
5:20
S2: will be very hard to come down from. But we
5:23
S2: still haven't formalized the split.
5:25
S1: Yeah. If they were to formalise the split and as
5:28
S1: you say, they've both painting themselves into a corner, it's
5:31
S1: very hard to see how they can patch it up.
5:33
S1: But at the same time, everywhere you look at it,
5:36
S1: it's untenable, particularly for the nationals, I think, to be
5:40
S1: running their own show. I mean, on a basic level,
5:43
S1: you know, the shadow ministries that the nationals have now,
5:46
S1: you know, these nationals members have now given up. They
5:48
S1: come with an extra $60,000 in pay. Okay. They've taken
5:51
S1: a big pay cut. These people, they come with more staff,
5:53
S1: they come with better offices. So that will all be gone,
5:56
S1: which is a huge sort of funding hole really, for
5:58
S1: the nationals to be running their own show. Um, they'll
6:01
S1: apparently have to be doing separate policy making and an election.
6:05
S1: What would it mean? Because, you know, traditionally nationals and
6:08
S1: liberals don't run against each other. There are certain seats
6:11
S1: where you could even maybe even get a four pointed contest. And,
6:14
S1: you know, with one nation in there as well. Preference flows.
6:18
S1: And then, of course, there's the question of the Senate,
6:20
S1: because our colleague James Massola had a really interesting story
6:23
S1: this week, pointing out that the Nats, particularly in New
6:26
S1: South Wales, at least if they were not on the
6:28
S1: coalition Senate ticket, they would maybe not win a seat
6:31
S1: at all, or they might win one. So they're basically
6:35
S1: subsidised or, you know, cross-subsidised by the liberals, particularly in
6:39
S1: the upper house. I mean, they're just a sort of
6:43
S1: spent political force. If they're not with the liberals, aren't they?
6:46
S2: Well, the nationals have always been able to expand their
6:50
S2: appeal and demonstrate to voters that they are a kind
6:54
S2: of bigger and more substantive party in terms of their, uh,
6:58
S2: what they can achieve in politics because of their link
7:01
S2: with the Liberal Party. Yeah. You're able to tell a
7:03
S2: regional voter, if you're a nationals MP, that if you
7:05
S2: vote for me, we are part of a coalition. We
7:08
S2: will then have a deputy prime minister as our party leader,
7:11
S2: and we'll affect change through government that benefits regional voters.
7:15
S2: Without the Liberal Party there obviously unable to do that.
7:18
S2: And because the Liberal Party is now being diminished in
7:20
S2: the cities so severely, they also, to form government need
7:24
S2: the national party, because those four, five, six, seven, eight
7:27
S2: seats in the House, uh, are what they need to,
7:30
S2: you know, I mean, they're nowhere near government at the moment,
7:32
S2: but they need them as well. Uh, and then to
7:34
S2: the point of pay and positions, you're spot on. I mean,
7:38
S2: all of these nationals frontbenchers who have quit over coming weeks,
7:41
S2: unless this is somehow patched up, which is very unlikely,
7:44
S2: we'll lose multiple staff each. Those staff have families. They
7:49
S2: will lose $60,000 in pay themselves. And for senators like
7:53
S2: Bridget McKenzie and Ross Caddell, two of the MPs who
7:57
S2: crossed the floor last week knowing what the consequence would be.
8:00
S2: They probably, in two years time at the next election,
8:04
S2: will lose their Senate positions because the way it works
8:06
S2: for voters who didn't read our colleague James Massola story
8:09
S2: is that those nationals senators every second election. So every, every, uh,
8:16
S2: at the end of every six year term, there's a
8:18
S2: nationals who has nationals politician who has the second spot
8:21
S2: on the coalition's Senate ticket. If they were not on
8:24
S2: that Senate ticket, they would need to get a quota
8:26
S2: themselves as nationals politician, which is very hard. It will
8:30
S2: almost never happen. And so they will not have a
8:32
S2: position unless they're on the coalition ticket.
8:34
S1: Yeah.
8:34
S2: And Bridget McKenzie is distinctly aware of this. She talks
8:37
S2: about it in private. And the fact that they've taken
8:39
S2: this step, knowing the consequence on pay, on position, on staff,
8:43
S2: goes to the depth of hostility between these two parties.
8:48
S2: There is such an ideological gulf. There is such a
8:52
S2: such a severe schism between some of the personalities, particularly
8:56
S2: between David Littleproud and Sussan Ley, who for many years
8:58
S2: not seen eye to eye and have shown various, at
9:01
S2: various points, disrespect towards the other. And there's a feeling
9:04
S2: in the Liberal Party, in both parties at the moment,
9:07
S2: as they prepare for the first full parliamentary sittings next
9:11
S2: week and the week after that, when this reality dawns
9:14
S2: on the majority of members in the opposition that they
9:18
S2: look like this rump in parliament. Albanese, who's a bit
9:21
S2: of a master tactician and and and practitioner of the parliament,
9:26
S2: will belittle them. They'll be made fun of in the corridors.
9:29
S2: They'll just look like an absolute rabble. And maybe that
9:32
S2: will spark the sense of urgency to heal this and
9:37
S2: overcome the ego driven decision making that got them here
9:41
S2: in the first place.
9:42
S1: That may well be, and I hope it is, for
9:44
S1: the sake of our democracy and the health of our democracy.
9:46
S1: But the egos involved are so strong and they seem
9:49
S1: to be so myopic in their view. That's what I
9:52
S1: find so amazing, because even if you don't want to
9:56
S1: cooperate with your coalition partner shortly, you can see on
10:00
S1: some level your strategic interest, short term and long term
10:03
S1: in doing so, because neither of them can win an
10:05
S1: election without the other. But also just the enormous, enormous
10:09
S1: brand damage that is being done because you have ordinary
10:13
S1: voters looking at this. And, you know, as we as
10:15
S1: I was saying before, just thinking like I would get
10:17
S1: sacked for this behavior. How is it acceptable in elected representatives?
10:21
S1: And also, like, this was supposed to be the year
10:24
S1: when the liberals were actually going to give us some policy.
10:26
S1: I mean, they're supposed to be pushing out an immigration policy.
10:29
S1: We have stuff like, you know, the Chinese ambassador this
10:32
S1: week has come out and said that if Australia sells
10:34
S1: off the Port Darwin. Um, you know, takes Port Darwin
10:38
S1: off Chinese investors, then they will basically wage a new
10:42
S1: trade war. I'm kind of, you know, generalizing there, but
10:46
S1: these are major issues that, you know, particularly the coalition
10:48
S1: should be all over. And they're just not they don't
10:51
S1: have their eye on the game at all in terms
10:53
S1: of what Australian, the Australian people want or policy development.
10:57
S1: I find it actually really confounding.
10:59
S2: The government's inflation narrative has.
11:01
S1: Blown.
11:01
S2: Up in its face this week, which is absolutely beautiful
11:05
S2: terrain for the Liberal Party.
11:06
S1: Yeah, and they've got a really, really strong argument there,
11:08
S1: which is basically the Labor Party or, you know, labor
11:10
S1: government has spent way too much money and it's pushing
11:13
S1: up inflation and it's going to affect every single mortgage
11:16
S1: mortgagee in the country when interest rates go up this week. Paul,
11:20
S1: how do you see how do you see it sort
11:22
S1: of playing out next week? Obviously Parliament comes back. David
11:26
S1: Littleproud is going to face this sort of weird squib
11:29
S1: of a challenge from Colin Boyce. What do you think's
11:31
S1: going to happen there? First of all, will the challenge
11:33
S1: even get up?
11:34
S2: David Littleproud in a in a difficult position politically because
11:37
S2: he's he's his authority has been dented by what's happened
11:40
S2: in the last couple of weeks, particularly in terms of
11:42
S2: the perceptions of him from his Liberal colleagues. There are
11:45
S2: most people in the Liberal Party believe that if there
11:47
S2: is to be a reconciliation at some point in the future,
11:50
S2: David Littleproud can't be the nationals leader because he was
11:53
S2: seen to have acted totally unreasonably by his Liberal colleagues
11:57
S2: on the other side in the National Party, because there
11:59
S2: is this sense of nationals exceptionalism, nationals parochialism in terms
12:05
S2: of being hairy chested and muscular in their dealings with
12:08
S2: their city based partners. It's galvanised the sense among the
12:12
S2: nationals that, you know, we can go this alone. We
12:15
S2: can be our own party, we can be for our
12:18
S2: voters and not have to compromise and accommodate city based views,
12:22
S2: which they haven't done much of in recent years anyway.
12:25
S2: But this challenge from Colin Boyce next week, which has
12:28
S2: come totally out of the blue.
12:30
S3: We do have to get this coalition back together again.
12:34
S3: It's a bit like trying to weld square pipe to
12:36
S3: round pipe. Um, and that is why I will announce
12:40
S3: to you right here today. You heard it first. I
12:43
S3: will be moving a spill motion on Monday afternoon in
12:46
S3: the National Party party room to give my colleagues an
12:49
S3: option because, uh, the reality is, is they follow the
12:54
S3: course they're on. Now, we are going over the political cliff.
12:59
S2: Colin Boyce is a boilermaker from Gladstone, has very few
13:03
S2: allies in the party, was one of the closest MPs
13:06
S2: in the Nationals to Barnaby Joyce. He's been telling people
13:09
S2: privately that if he does leave the nationals, which is
13:11
S2: in prospect, he'll join the crossbench rather than one nation.
13:16
S2: So he's a rogue operator. He's thrown up this spill
13:18
S2: motion for this coming Monday. He may not even receive
13:22
S2: a seconder on this motion. You need a colleague to
13:25
S2: back a motion for it to be put for a vote.
13:27
S2: And then if it does get the seconder, it's almost
13:29
S2: certainly not going to get enough numbers. A majority of
13:31
S2: the 18 nationals MPs to get to a vote on
13:34
S2: the leadership, but just the raising up of the issue
13:37
S2: of David Littleproud's leadership will, I imagine, spark a conversation
13:41
S2: among some of the more ambitious nationals colleagues of Littleproud,
13:45
S2: including Matt Canavan, Bridget McKenzie, Michael McCormack all of whom
13:50
S2: would like to be the leader of the party. And
13:52
S2: these rumblings are occurring already. You're hearing these talks behind
13:55
S2: the scenes and the nationals about which are along the
13:58
S2: lines of, okay, look, he's safe for now. He still
14:00
S2: has the numbers, but in the long run, can this
14:03
S2: guy still lead us? So it'll be interesting to see
14:05
S2: how that plays out over a period of months. Not
14:07
S2: as immediate as the Sussan Ley leadership troubles.
14:09
S1: But I mean, that's the thing. Hasn't he just spelled
14:11
S1: the cat because it's basically now, you know, David Littleproud
14:14
S1: and Sussan Ley are so at odds with each other
14:16
S1: that it's either, you know, the nationals have to decide
14:18
S1: whether they want to keep David Littleproud in the leadership
14:21
S1: in apparent perpetuity, or at least for the next election, say,
14:24
S1: or go back into a coalition or put themselves in
14:27
S1: a position where they're actually electable as a government. So
14:31
S1: I don't know if I fancy, if I'd put money
14:33
S1: on David Littleproud chances in that scenario, because self-interest will
14:37
S1: will generally win.
14:38
S2: I think that's a decent bet the nationals are notorious
14:41
S2: for pretty speedy leadership changes. Their party room is so
14:44
S2: small that you only ever need really 2 or 3
14:47
S2: votes to switch one way or the other, and that
14:49
S2: lead is dead. And Michael McCormack is is ambitious. Bridget
14:52
S2: McKenzie is ambitious.
14:53
S1: Yeah. And he sort of did what they wanted him
14:55
S1: to do, didn't they, in the sense that he convinced
14:57
S1: he sort of strong armed Susan Layer. It looked a
14:59
S1: lot like he did, um, into dropping the coalition commitment
15:03
S1: to net zero, which is one of, you know, sort
15:04
S1: of the National party's major sort of ambitions, I suppose,
15:07
S1: within the coalition. Okay, let's talk about Sussan Ley, because
15:11
S1: she's not looking too hot. And as we record, actually, um,
15:14
S1: there's a funeral of the much respected MP Katie Allen
15:18
S1: in Melbourne, which both sides of politics are, I think,
15:20
S1: some memorial service which both sides of politics are attending,
15:24
S1: and Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, you know, classic, classic
15:29
S1: politics were photographed sort of going into a meeting with
15:32
S1: each other right before this funeral. You know, it is
15:35
S1: a dirty game. It is a dirty it's a.
15:37
S2: Bit Shakespearian or something, having all this intrigue around a
15:40
S2: funeral and plotting around a funeral.
15:42
S1: Yeah, they're plotting their basically plotting to knock off their
15:44
S1: leader right before going to honor the life of this, um,
15:47
S1: of this politician.
15:48
S2: I know Angus Taylor, by the way, has a strong
15:50
S2: relationship with Katie Allen's husband, so I know that his
15:53
S2: people are feeling a bit off about how this has
15:55
S2: been portrayed, and they didn't mean it to be put
15:57
S2: this way, but with Hastie being in Perth, this event happening,
16:01
S2: it's it's unfortunately been caught up in the funeral debate.
16:03
S1: Yeah. And Angus Taylor, as you've reported, has been overseas
16:06
S1: for much of the summer. So this is the sort
16:08
S1: of first time they're actually in the same city together.
16:10
S1: And this happens to be the reason. But again, it
16:13
S1: doesn't look so good. What do you think will come
16:15
S1: out of that meeting or, you know, are they likely
16:17
S1: to come to terms because it's hard to see Susan
16:20
S1: Lee's leadership continuing for too much longer, isn't it?
16:22
S2: Yeah. So for listeners to understand why that meeting is important,
16:26
S2: it's because, in effect, it's not quite this precise, but
16:29
S2: half the party room is moderate and half the party
16:32
S2: room are conservatives. It chops and changes. The conservatives probably
16:35
S2: have a slight edge, but for an alternative leader to
16:38
S2: beat Susan Lee in a leadership ballot. The right the
16:41
S2: conservative side will need to be united behind one. If
16:44
S2: there's two candidates from the right, that half will be
16:46
S2: split 2,525% and the moderate candidate being Susan Lee will
16:50
S2: will stick that in the job. So until Andrew Hastie
16:53
S2: and Angus Taylor can come to a resolution on who
16:55
S2: the right wing candidate is, this leadership spill ain't happening. Um,
16:58
S2: the last couple of weeks has been pretty fascinating. So
17:01
S2: this coalition blow up, which was in the minds of
17:03
S2: most liberals, precipitated by David Littleproud, even though Susan Lee
17:07
S2: kind of created the environment for herself to be smarted
17:10
S2: in such a way because her vociferous calls to come
17:13
S2: back for Parliament were, in hindsight, rash and put the
17:16
S2: party in a in a precarious position once they came back.
17:19
S1: She didn't think more than one step ahead. I mean,
17:22
S1: this is this is what sort of, you know. And
17:23
S1: Anthony Albanese, by contrast, for all of his flaws, does
17:27
S1: he you know, he's he's a political strategist with many
17:30
S1: runs on the board. But yeah, she didn't think more
17:32
S1: than one step ahead.
17:34
S2: Totally. Right. And as Sean Carney, um, who I referenced earlier.
17:37
S2: I'm just repeating Sean Carney's column.
17:39
S1: It was a great column. Everyone should go read it.
17:41
S2: Everyone should always read Sean Carney. As he said, uh,
17:44
S2: the idea that you would call for Parliament to return
17:48
S2: in order to undercut the Prime Minister is the wrong
17:51
S2: way to view this Prime Minister, because there is nowhere
17:53
S2: where he is more adept than in the Parliament, and
17:55
S2: using the Parliament to wedge his opponents and create conflicts
17:58
S2: on their own side, which he did despite a really
18:01
S2: difficult summer for him, where he was exposed on more
18:04
S2: substantive qualities of leadership and potentially moral clarity, which is
18:09
S2: an overused term, but I'll use the cliche anyway. But
18:12
S2: just in the last couple of weeks on the Liberal
18:15
S2: leadership spill, it's been really interesting to see how it
18:17
S2: played out. So in the days after Littleproud left the coalition,
18:22
S2: it was clearly a moment of generational crisis, like there
18:25
S2: are a few moments on the conservative side of politics
18:28
S2: that looked so stark when it occurred, because the split
18:31
S2: that occurred after the last election was brief, there was
18:34
S2: always going to be patched up quickly, and there was
18:36
S2: a sense that Susan Lee could kind of this new
18:38
S2: centrist leader woman in the role. There was a sense
18:40
S2: of positivity around the place where now, nearly a year
18:44
S2: into her leadership, when David Littleproud split out last week,
18:47
S2: it looked like the split would be more permanent and
18:49
S2: there were serious questions about whether the coalition was dead.
18:51
S2: So at that moment, the group of supporters around Andrew Hastie,
18:55
S2: who are very bolshie, they want to see Andrew Hastie
18:58
S2: in the job quickly. And Andrew Hastie is telling people
19:00
S2: that he wants the job quickly. He's ready to do it,
19:02
S2: even though he's only 42 or 43. They are very
19:05
S2: quickly started making calls to colleagues saying that Hastie was ready,
19:10
S2: saying that his wife was ready for him to do
19:12
S2: the job and trying to create momentum for a spill.
19:15
S2: This got reported by us and all the other political reporters,
19:19
S2: but over days it became clear that the momentum was
19:23
S2: not quite as strong as we initially thought. A lot
19:26
S2: of MPs were saying, we haven't even received a call.
19:28
S2: Andrew Hastie's people were dampening the idea that there would
19:31
S2: be a quick leadership spill, and there was a really
19:34
S2: strong pushback from some moderates and from people around Sussan
19:37
S2: Ley who really started to, you know, take the piss
19:39
S2: out of the Hastie camp to say you guys have
19:41
S2: never done a leadership spill before. You're all first or
19:44
S2: second term backbenchers. You clearly don't know how to do this.
19:47
S2: Get back in your box.
19:48
S1: It just from the outside. It just looks like they
19:50
S1: couldn't run a chook raffle there.
19:51
S2: There is that sense that I can I can understand
19:54
S2: it all the while. Angus Taylor is in Europe with
19:57
S2: his wife. They're trying to have their first holiday as
19:59
S2: a couple. For many years he was away for the
20:02
S2: parliamentary sitting week where this all occurred, even though he
20:04
S2: was zooming in to leadership meetings and staying up all night,
20:07
S2: and he was not able to do the same level
20:09
S2: of rallying that Andrew Hastie was doing because Hastie was
20:12
S2: in the country. So Taylor gets back into the country,
20:15
S2: he's on the back foot. He starts calling around over
20:18
S2: that last weekend and realises that quite a few people
20:21
S2: who might have been seen as on the fence, in
20:23
S2: the right faction, on who to back, were on, leaning
20:26
S2: towards Hastie. So then the Taylor people enter the debate,
20:29
S2: try and calm the horses and say, you know, now's
20:32
S2: not quite the right time. Give this a few weeks.
20:34
S2: We need to come together with hasty and have a
20:36
S2: meeting to determine which one of us it's going to be.
20:39
S2: And so now we're in this kind of holding pattern
20:42
S2: to see where the right goes. This meeting today in
20:44
S2: Melbourne might be crucial. I suspect it actually won't come
20:47
S2: up with a resolution. Susan Lee's people are feeling pretty
20:50
S2: bolshie because the other side looks shambolic. But even though
20:53
S2: Susan Lee's people have been projecting this confidence and making
20:57
S2: fun of their, you know, allegedly rabble rousing opponents, there's
21:00
S2: been this string of polls now which show that One
21:03
S2: Nation is hovering somewhere between, you know, 16, 17% minimum
21:07
S2: on primary and up to 25% and the Liberal Party
21:11
S2: in some of these polls are in the high teens,
21:13
S2: mid 20s or low 20s. And those polls are just
21:17
S2: freaking out. Liberal MPs, because those aren't like bad polls.
21:23
S2: They're like tectonic shifts in conservative voting patterns that could
21:27
S2: just cut the knees off the Liberal Party. So there's
21:30
S2: a sense that not only is Susan Lee's leadership, you know,
21:34
S2: it might be buffeted by the fact that there is
21:36
S2: chaos on the right flank of the coalition, but the
21:39
S2: situation is so dire that MPs are now starting to
21:42
S2: speak in existential terms, and I suspect that will lead
21:45
S2: to a removal. It might not be swift because the
21:48
S2: riots disorganized, but it will probably occur over the next
21:52
S2: few months.
21:53
S1: Yeah.
21:53
S2: If not, if not in two weeks time at the
21:55
S2: end of the parliamentary sitting week.
21:56
S1: I mean, this is maybe a bit of a byway.
21:57
S1: And I know you and Tas did a podcast a
22:00
S1: couple of weeks ago about the One Nation sort of threat,
22:02
S1: as it might be dubbed. And I think, again, we
22:06
S1: keep coming back to Sean Carney. I think he made
22:07
S1: this point as well, that the shift to One Nation
22:10
S1: could be on ideological grounds, you know, on political grounds,
22:14
S1: but it could be also people who can't bring themselves
22:16
S1: or would never vote for, for a progressive party, but
22:20
S1: just cannot stand the chaos, or a completely disgusted and
22:23
S1: disillusioned by the chaos within the coalition. So One Nation,
22:27
S1: by contrast, looks pretty unified and together at least, which
22:30
S1: is not something I thought I'd ever say. Um, and
22:34
S1: it is a tectonic shift. I mean, I don't think
22:35
S1: we can sort of discount the possibility that we're never
22:37
S1: going to go back to what we've always thought is
22:39
S1: politics as usual in this country, which is a two
22:42
S1: party system where both the major players basically swap government
22:45
S1: in and out, depending on how badly or how incompetent
22:49
S1: one or the other is in government. It's a split
22:51
S1: in the vote on the right. And, you know, in
22:53
S1: many other countries, particularly European countries, it's quite normal for
22:56
S1: coalitions to form government and coalitions in the small see sense. And,
23:01
S1: you know, maybe that's what we're looking at. If they
23:03
S1: could ever agree on terms or ever get round to
23:05
S1: thinking about policy. Paul, where does this leave the government? Because,
23:08
S1: you know, it is quite extraordinary that, you know, the
23:11
S1: the amount of blame, you know, condemnation, criticism that Albanese
23:16
S1: got in particular, and now he's managed to pull off
23:19
S1: this kind of legislation quite quickly. He looks very much
23:22
S1: like he's done it on his own terms. Yes. He
23:24
S1: had to back down over the royal commission, but I
23:26
S1: don't know if he's going to pay a huge political
23:28
S1: price for that in the long term. And what are
23:30
S1: they going to be getting on with now? Because, you know,
23:33
S1: I mean, Albanese's been in East Timor this week. He'll
23:35
S1: come back to Parliament next week. Will they actually have
23:37
S1: any sort of policy for us? Will they be, you know,
23:40
S1: what will they be doing in terms of their agenda
23:42
S1: this year?
23:43
S2: Well, the Prime Minister has a National Press Club speech
23:46
S2: next week. It was going to be, I think, in
23:49
S2: this week, the Australia Day week or perhaps just before,
23:52
S2: I can't quite remember, but it got delayed because of
23:54
S2: the Bondi legislative response. That's a set piece speech that
23:57
S2: the Prime Minister gives every year outlining his agenda, and
24:01
S2: this year, I suspect, will be more important than most
24:03
S2: because after the May election last year, 2025 was seen
24:07
S2: as a year of delivery for Albanese. He would tell
24:10
S2: anyone who would listen that we're not going to embark
24:13
S2: on some new radical agenda in the first year after
24:15
S2: being re-elected with a thumping majority. We'll do what we've
24:18
S2: said and the future. We'll see what the future holds
24:21
S2: in terms of where our horizons can be expanded to.
24:24
S2: We still don't really have a clear sense of what
24:27
S2: the second year agenda might look like. And this is
24:30
S2: a critical year in the sense that the government's got
24:33
S2: a big majority. The opposition's in crisis. We know there's
24:37
S2: no election this year, so it's a full year of
24:39
S2: being able to govern without thinking about a campaign. And
24:42
S2: the government's got a lot of political capital in the
24:45
S2: sense of a huge majority in the parliament. But as
24:47
S2: Bondi showed, he's not a Bob Hawke level figure in
24:50
S2: terms of his political ascendancy. He can go through a
24:53
S2: crisis that quickly diminishes his personal numbers, his popularity ratings.
24:58
S2: The prime minister dipped over January to the same level
25:01
S2: as they were in February January of the election year,
25:05
S2: when he was at a point where many people were
25:07
S2: predicting a Dutton government, obviously very wrongly predicting that. But
25:11
S2: that's what polls were showing. So there is a sense
25:13
S2: that the government needs to get back, swing back into
25:17
S2: gear itself with a new agenda. The budget will be
25:21
S2: an important budget in May. Inflation pressure is back, so
25:24
S2: they'll probably need to be something on the spending front
25:27
S2: to see if the government can pare back, which they
25:29
S2: haven't shown much appetite to do to date. And then
25:31
S2: there's also this big question on what the government does
25:33
S2: on economic reform. Do they tackle the tax question? How
25:36
S2: ambitious does Chalmers want to be? The government's next year
25:39
S2: is really open and hard to predict as to where
25:42
S2: it will go, so it'll be fascinating.
25:44
S1: I mean, I think it's going to be all about
25:45
S1: the economy because, as you say, there's a budget where
25:47
S1: sort of we go into budget kind of preparation mode
25:49
S1: almost from now, and they're going to have to trim spending.
25:52
S1: It seems to me like they just have to, one
25:54
S1: way or the other, depending on, you know, particularly what
25:56
S1: the RBA says next week when they say.
25:57
S2: They're not very good at it, trimming, spending.
25:59
S1: No. And they've got so much locked in. I mean,
26:01
S1: and you know, well you know, there's I mean health
26:04
S1: health costs are blowing out. You know, they're about to
26:06
S1: do this deal on the hospitals. Childcare costs are enormous. Still,
26:09
S1: there are huge sort of headline items in the budget
26:12
S1: there that I think they'll, they'll struggle to, to rein in. Paul,
26:15
S1: thanks very much. It's good to be back to be
26:17
S1: reunited for this. What is going to be a very
26:19
S1: exciting year in politics, I think. And I will see
26:21
S1: you next week.
26:22
S2: Awesome to have you back. Thanks, Jack.
26:29
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S1: Terms and conditions apply. Today's episode was produced by Kai
27:00
S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is
27:04
S1: Tammy Mills and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy
27:07
S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, please follow Inside Politics
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S1: Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.