Latest / Toadstool Sports / Brewers/Reds MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Sunday 8/17/25

Transcript

Brewers/Reds MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Sunday 8/17/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached into pink. Actually, I'm I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: have with you, as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's sowed back with you better off dead. Sunday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: August seventeenth, Yesterday we were two and one on the show,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: so it was a winner yesterday to and on. In baseball,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: the WNBA play should have been a win in my
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: opinion the Liberty that was the first game up, and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the Liberty were way behind early in the game, and
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I'm like, well, it's the WNBA. So a lot of
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: times you have like ridiculous swings in the WNBA, even
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: though they don't play that many minutes. I mean, this
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: is kind of the nature of the game anyway. And
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: of course, yeah, the Liberty were right back in the game.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: They raced most of the deficit by halftime, They took
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: the lead in the second half, had the lead for
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: most of the second half. I think they were winning
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: by at least five in the fourth quarter, and then
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: they wind up losing the game. Anyway by six. And
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: if you look at what happened in that game, the
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: statistic that stands out in that game free throw attempts.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Minnesota had thirty three free throw attempts and the Liberty
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: had eight. You think that's biased reffing and all there,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: thirty three to eight. When do you ever see a
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: free throw disparity? It's that lopsided. I mean, it's absolutely ridiculous.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: If the free throw disparity was anywhere near even between
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: the two teams, the Liberty would have won that game.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Like that was the entire reason that the game wound
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: up being what it was. And if it wasn't for that,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the Liberty probably would have won that game with ease.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it really pisses me off. I
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: can't believe there was that much of a free throw
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: disparity in just how many times each team was getting
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: to the line. It's absolutely absurd. Both baseball plays won easily.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: So the Toronto Blue Jays easy winner. I think they
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: won like fourteen to two or something. That game was
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: basically over as soon as it started. That was a
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: nice easy win. And we had the under in the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle and Mets game, Mariners, Mets under first five, under
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: full game. Whichever way you did it, that was a winner.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: McClain had a pretty decent, more than decent major league debut,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: even though he walked too many guys who was pretty
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: good in the game. Wo was his usual pretty good self,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So that was a pretty easy one. I think that
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: game was one nothing at the end of the fifth inning,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: so nice easy winner there. I think the final was
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: low scoring as well, four to one, maybe something like that.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Move on today. I'm gonna give you two major league
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: baseball plays today, and one of them you're gonna think
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'm absolutely insane. One of them you're really not gonna like.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: The other one is probably like something, Oh, I haven't
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: really thought about that. The other one's not really gonna
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: be one that anybody's really even paying a whole lot
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: of attention to roll. What's up, man, Thanks for hanging out.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Let's get into today. We do have a bunch of WNBA.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: We gotta get another dildo throw man. It's Sunday, it's
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: the Lord's Day. It seems like it should be a
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: dildo throwing type of day. Right. We have five w
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: NBA games. I'm not gonna touch any of these. Indiana
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: still without Caitlin Clark, is the first game up on
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: NBA TV. They get they get WNBA there there you go. Great. Well,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I guess the NBA is not going on right now. Connecticut.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're the worst team in the league. Indiana
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: still does not have Caitlin Clark. Connecticut, they're staying at
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: home after they actually won in their return home spot
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: against the Chicago Sky And I guess there were a
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: bunch of ejections and a brawl in that game, So
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: isn't that great? Looks like it was another race war
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: here as you can see in that picture here. Isn't
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: that great? And I don't think Angel Reese was involved
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: in that game either. Connecticut, I mean they're just playing
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: out the stretch. Indiana at least does have something to
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: play for and that they're vying for playoff positioning. At
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: least they're most likely going to make the playoffs. They
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: need Caitlyn Clark to come back at some point. Indiana's
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: lost four of the last five games, so I think
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: they should be motivated. They're actually going out on the
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: road after losing two games at home, so they might
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: be a little bit more focused for that reason, not again,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna touch Indiana is down from eight to six though,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: so the line has actually dropped on Indiana. I'm not
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: quite sure that I agree with that move, other than
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: the fact that you know, Indiana just doesn't have Caitlin
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Clark and it's kind of a big line to be
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: laying with any team on the road. But we're talking
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: about Connecticut, the worst team in the league. So do
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: with all that information what you will, But I don't
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: think that I would really want any part of Connecticut.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: There a double headed Doldo or a dragon Dildo. People
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: got to get more creative, man. The most creative ones
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: so far was the Purple the La Sparks at Washington.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams kind of have something to play
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: for because they're both I think, vying for a playoff spot.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how many teams make the playoffs.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Eight teams make the playoffs, so I do think these
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: teams are still in the running here of the Washington
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: has played some pretty bad basketball recently, lost five of
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: their last seven games. They beat Indiana the last time out,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: but they're returning home from that and that was a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: big win. Even though it was Indiana without Kaitlyn Clark.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: That closed the gap a little bit between Indiana and Washington.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Does that mean they're gonna overlook LA? I don't know.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I mean beating Indiana, like I said, is a decent
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: win of the Washington still needs to keep winning. LA
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: is coming off a really close win against Dallas, so
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: they just had a scare against the worst team in
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the Western Conference in Dallas. So I don't know LA
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: second game on the road here, but they have to
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: travel from Dallas to Washington. This again, I'm not gonna
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: touch any of these games. I'm just pointing them out
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: for posterity. Basically, Las all the way down from six
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: to three, and I looked to see, like why did
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: the line move like that? There don't seem to be
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: any injuries on the LA side, so I don't really
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: get that. I would do have a really high total
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: in that game as well. LA is one of the
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: worst defensive teams in the WNBA, so take you know,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: take away whatever you will from that. But there's no
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: way I'm touching that game either. But the money seems
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: to be coming in on the Washington side for whatever reason. Yeah,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I think there are twelve teams in the league and
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: eight of them make the playoffs something like that. I
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I don't know anything about the WNBA. Colton,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: what's up, man, Thanks for hanging out. Let's see Dallas
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: at Vegas. Colton. By the way, Colton, I have not
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: seen you in a while. Man, you haven't been in
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: the in the group chat anymore, which I'm not even
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: in anymore because I left it again because fuck all
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: of you guys. But yeah, good seeing you man. Dallas
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: at Vegas here. Vegas is obviously a huge favorite. I
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: mean Vegas. They're playing some pretty good basketball right now.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Even though they've had some struggles defensively this year as well,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: they're starting to turn it on. They are still one
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in the league. They're on a
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: seven game win streak here, but they're coming off two
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: big wins over the Liberty and Phoenix, and they closed
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the gap into a tie with Phoenix. They could definitely
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: be in a potential letdown spot here, and last time
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: they played Dallas on the road, they beat Dallas by
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: twenty six points. Dallas is the team that's at the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: bottom of the conference here, so it is possible they
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: overlook Dallas. Dallas coming off another loss here, Dallas probably
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: will be focused just because they want to try to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: get a win at some point against somebody, right, So
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean against Vegas and this one the
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: line's gone up from ten to ten and a half,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: but I would not lay those points. Vegas has actually
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: been fairly bad at home as well. They seem to
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: just barely escape a lot of their games at home.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So I would not want to lay the points with
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Dallas or with a Vegas there excuse I probably need
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: to taking the points with Dallas. Phoenix at Seattle is
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: actually a pretty big game, both these teams fighting for
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning. Although Seattle needs the game more is they
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: just got back to five hundred with the win that
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: they got. I gave them out in that game on
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: the show in Vancouver. It was a big game for them, man,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I thought that was a spot played for Seattle. They
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: got it done and they might have some momentum coming
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: forward moving forward because they broke a long lost street.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: They'd lost six games in a row, so I think
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the fact that they won, I don't think it would
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: be a letdown for them because they need to keep
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: playing so they can try to get into the playoffs. Here.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I think they will be focused for this game against Phoenix.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: They are having to come back home to Seattle from Vancouver,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: so it is technically a return home spot, but I
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: don't think it's really like, oh, they're turning home from
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: a long road trip or anything like that, so it's
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: going to be a distraction. Phoenix is coming off a
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: couple of big games that were pretty close against Atlanta
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: and Vegas, and they're sitting in a tie with Vegas
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: right now, so that was a really big game against Vegas,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: so it's possible and they might overlook Seattle slightly here
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: in this game, going out on the road. I'd probably
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to Seattle in that one. The line is
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: basically sitting at Phoenix minus one. There, What do you
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: mean which baseball game? The one that's in the title
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: here or the other one? I have two games. I'm
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: not actually beat any of these games right now though,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: because with my not having a job right now, trying
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to could serve some money right now, I don't want
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to take any losses right now, although if I was good,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: i'd be like fuck yeah, I'm still betting, like I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: should it should be winning, right, Baseball just hasn't been
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: That hasn't been that good for me this year. I mean,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: you might know what I'm doing in that game. If
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: you look at the starting pitching matchup in that game,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I think it probably gives it away. Atlanta at Golden State.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: These two teams are both fighting for playoff positioning as well.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I think Golden State needs the game a little bit more.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Golden State's won four games in a rows. They're playing
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: some pretty good basketball again, but they are returning home
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: from a road trip that took them to Washington and Chicago,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: so it just technically return home spots, so they could
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: be a little bit distracted because of that. It wasn't
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a long road trip though. Atlanta did just lose a
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: long win streak though, winning six games in a row,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times when you lose a win
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: streak like that, it can hang over into the next game.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: It can have that like hangover effect. And they're playing
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: so many games in a row on the road, it's
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: actually crazy. You never really see something like this like
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: that last game is that neutral site game in Vancouver.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: They're now playing a fifth out of six straight road games.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: With one day off in between the last few year,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: but it's not exactly a great spot for Atlanta. And
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: now they're up like they're definitely gonna make the playoffs,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and they're kind of up in like a tie almost.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I think with the Liberty, I think they might be
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: ahead of the Liberty again because the Liberty blew it
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: for me yesterday and Atlanta's down from five to three. Here,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: the money is definitely coming in a Golden State, and
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. I think Golden State as
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a home underdog and having a little bit more need
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though they are turning home, they
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: think it does make sense they'll be trying to win
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the game. Fifty percent of tickets evenly split a ninety
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Golden State. Right now.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's really anything to read into
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: as far as that percentage is concerned, but the money
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: looks like it is coming in towards the Golden State
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: side major League Baseball, it's going man the rundown. So
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: that means Colt has to wait until the end of
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the show. Because I do my best bets at the
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: end of the show. I'll do NFL preseason at the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: very end. But and I go through every single MLB game,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna try to make this as quick as
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I can. We have one game that's up at eleven
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: thirty five AM, and I'm not gonna have a play
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: in this one. But this is an interesting game between
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Philly and Washington. Washington won yesterday, so they've actually won
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: two of the three games in the series. They shut
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: out Philadelphia yesterday. I do think that Philly is gonna
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: show up with more intensity here after losing two to nothing.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, you shut out Philadelphia or your Philadelphia, you
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: just got shut out. I think you're gonna show up
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: in the next game, so right away, I do think
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a situational advantage for Philadelphia here.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: And I know Philadelphia doesn't have to really necessarily win
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: right now because they have a big lead in the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: NL East, but they don't really want to blow that either.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Washington only is one relief pitcher yesterday, though, but I
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: don't think Philly used that many of theirs either. Yeah,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Philly very light bullpen usage as well. Washington has the
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: worst of the two bullpens, so Philly again as I've
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: said throughout the series they have the better of the bullpens,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: even though their bullpen isn't that good, and they have
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the better offense. Obviously. Aaron Nola is the most interesting
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: part of this. He is coming back from being injured
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: for most of the season. He was not pitching well.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Six point one six era, one point five to one whip,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: maybe because he was dealing with some injury issues. I
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: don't know what was going on, man, but his last
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: start was nightmarishly bad. He gave up niner and runs
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: in three and two thirds against Saint Louis back in May,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: then went on the DL or whatever here. But I mean,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: we know what Nola is and he is not this.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Like if you look at his career numbers, they are
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: so much better than this. He's not that old. He's
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: thirty two, So I'm not thinking that he's actually gonna
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: be bad here. He made two starts, I believe in
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Triple A. I looked at his numbers and his ERA
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: was like in the twos in his rehab starts at
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Triple A, and he had like a one point one
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: whip and I think a seventeen to three You strike
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: at walk right show on twelve innings, so he was
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: fine in triple A. So I think he's ready to go.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Manh you have a veteran like this. I always kind
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of harp on this because a lot of times people
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: won't want to jump on a pitcher when it's their
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: first game back. But a veteran pitcher like this, I
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be pumped. He's gonna be pumped to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: be back in there and ready to go, man, and
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: be on a contending team like this and help them win.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So I think Nola is gonna come out and actually
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: pitch well in this game. That would be my guess.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: He was actually better around the road this year, even
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: when he wasn't pitching well this season. Five point oh
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: two Era on Nola. By the way, ridiculous name because
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: he actually is from Louisiana, although he's from Batone Rouge,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: but he still ridiculous that he's from Louisiana and his
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: name is Nola. Against Washington in his career, obviously, they
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: have a lot of history against him. One hundred and
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: thirty six at bats, thirty six to four strike out
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's haling in a two fifty seven average
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: and still a pretty low seven to ten ops. He's
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: given up five home runs to them, but three of
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: them are Josh Bell, so I'm not too concerned by
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: that number either. So I do think Nola should pitch
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: pretty well here. His numbers are fine against Washington, He's
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: up against a pitcher who's not as good as he
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: is in Mitchell Parker's not having a good season. Five
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: point five to six, five point five to five yre,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: excuse me, one point four to six whip. He is
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: better at home, though four point nine to four ARA
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: at home Recncy has not been good for him. He's
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: walked three guys a piece in his last two out.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: He's giving up nine earned runs and ten to third
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: innings against the A's who can hit a little bit.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: But then also at Kansas City, that's not a good sign.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: That's a pitcher friendly park in Kansas City, not a
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: good offense. So Mitchell Parker, I mean, he's just not
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: that good and he's not a very good form right now,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and he does not do well against the Phillies and
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: forty three at bats three, forty nine batting average allowed,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: nine to seventy five OPS allowed. So I will leave
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia in this game. It's a really really steep
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: price on them, though the line has moved in their
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: direction from just one seventy to minus one nine two
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tickets ninety four percent of the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: cash on them. It looks like public and professional money
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: probably all on the same side on Philadelphia. There, you
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: could lay a run line. I mean, at least you
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: get nine innings out of Philadelphia. If you want to
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: do that, I would not. I don't really hate that,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: especially because there's a total of ten. So it looks
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: like the oddsmakers are kind of expecting you to be
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: a high scoring game as well. I could see that
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: being the case, but I think generally watching it's pitching
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: is terrible in this game. So if you want to
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: go with Philadelphia over their team total and not even
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: worry about what shape Nola is going to be in here,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I think that might be a decent way to approach
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: this game as well. Philadelphia over their team total, scoring
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: a bunch of runs in that game, all right, Miami,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: And uh what am I doing here? I just lost
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: my streamyard tab for a minute. Miami and my Boston
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Yeah, Red Sox on the verge of a
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: sweet pier, so they might possibly overlook Miami in this
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: last game of the series. Here, Red Sox have Baltimore
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: up next. I don't know if that's really something that
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: is going to cause a look ahead spot, but it
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: is a divisional matchup at the very least, even though
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: it's the team in the bottom of their division. Red
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Sox have the better hitting here. They have the better
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. They have a slightly more used bullpen, but
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: only one of their relievers through double digit pitches yesterday. Say,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's in pretty rested shape. Miami basically used one
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: guy like in relief for a long period of time yesterdays.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are kind of both in decent shape. Jansen
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Junk is pitching from Miami, and he's been alright four
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: point zero six ERA one point one to three whip
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: combined across like. He's been coming out of the bullpen
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: for a bit, and he's been a starter for a
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: while now as well. He's been better on the road
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: as well, three point seventy RA in the road, he's
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: been pretty much serviceable. I mean, his last couple of
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: starts have been alright, giving up three e in runs
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: in five innings and each of them to Houston and Cleveland.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Nothing spectacular, obviously, but he doesn't strike a lot of
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: guys out. Did get kind of rocked by the Yankees
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: to start prior to that, and Yankees are a much
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: better offense than those other two offenses. So, uh, Junk,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have to step up a little bit in
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: class to face the Red Sox. So the Red Sox
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: only Bregman has ever faced him before and he's zero
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: for two off him. So Junk is unfamiliar to the
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, so he might have a little bit of
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: an advantage just because the Red Sox have to kind
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: of figure him out. We'll see how much of an
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: advantage that really is. So it's a little bit tough
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to gage you're gonna get out of him. Garrett Crochet
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Red Sox. He is their ace obviously,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: two point four to eighty r a one point one whip.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: The one thing I will say about Crochet though, is
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: that the season where he pitched the most was last
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: season with the White Sox, and he pitched he threw
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty six innings last year. So the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: White Sox made sure to not burn them out. They
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: didn't really overuse them. They didn't use them that much
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: in even though he made thirty two starts, they really
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: ramped his pitch count down towards the end of the
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: season last year. He's thrown more innings than that this
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: year already. So one thing you have to worry about
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: with these young guys like Krash the throw hard. At
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: some point, does that mean he's gonna wear down? Like
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is he gonna throw too many innings this year? So
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: you do have to worry about that, which worries me
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: about the Red Sox coming, you know, into the playoffs
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: and whatever playoffs, like if they're gonna actually be in
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, I think at some point they have to
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: start kind of managing Crochet's pitch count here man, but
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: he has been good for them this year. Pretty similar
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: home in away era doesn't really matter his last start
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: to give up five and runs to Houston, which wasn't great.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: It was one of his worst starts of the season.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Didn't make it five innings, but he still had five
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in one walk, so his command is still on point.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: With a thirteen to two strikeout walk raation here two
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: starts this month, so I'm not ready to say that
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: he is worn out at this point. I think you
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: could say that was maybe a bit of an outlier
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: performance there from him, because he didn't actually pitch that
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: poorly in that game. Miami is a step down offensively.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: They only have three hitters who have seen him before,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: although they're two for four off them with a walk
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and a strikeout. Not really, you really can't eat into
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: those numbers very much. I mean, I do think Croche
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: will pitch okay in this game, but if you want
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, you gotta lay a huge price on this.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: They're up for minus two twenty five to minus two
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: forty two. I will obviously not be doing that eighty
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets ninety six percent of the cash
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: on them. A better approach to this game might be
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: looking towards the under. I mean, we do see money
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under, fifty two percent of tickets
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: on the over seventy three percent of the cash on
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the under. Total has dropped a little bit further on
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the eight and a half juice to the under, you
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: do have to worry about it being a pretty hitter
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: from the part Crochet potentially wearing out a little bit
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: junk being kind of an unknown there, but I could
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: see both starting pitchers doing decent and then the bullpens
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: are not really in terrible shape either, So under full game,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: under first five maybe the better ways to look at
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: that game, but certainly not something that I'm gonna say, Yeah,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be a play for me. Colton, you want
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the Reds to win, I may or may not want
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: them to win, and it may only be because I
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: may or may not be be recommending a play on them,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: which I already said. The play that I have in
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: that game, people are really really gonna hate it. So
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: except for Colton, Texas, which I'm giving it away, but
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: whatever Texas at Toronto, I've given out a play in
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: both games of this series so far, and I went
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: one to one and it should have been two and
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: oh because Texas had to go and blow a five
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: to two lead in game one of the series. Toronto
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: got me an easy win yesterday. Toronto's on the verge
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: of sweeping Texas here. Does that mean Toronto might overlook
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Texas here? I'm not so sure. I mean they don't
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: have a bigger series up next. They have to go
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh like who cares, So it's not really a
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot for them. But they may take Texas
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit lightly because they've beaten them up in
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: the series especially, I mean mostly just yesterday. Texas does
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: still have the better of the two bullpens here as
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: far as the bullpen rest scenarios concerned, Texas really didn't
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: use a whole lot of their pen on neither team
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: really did yesterday, so the bullpens are both fairly intact here.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the much better offense over time. Texas to
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Toronto is a much better team at home. Texas is
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: pretty poor on the road. I do think Texas is
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: generally just looking at who the two starters are, I
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: would say Texas has the better starting pitcher, but when
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: you look up look at the matchup numbers, that may
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: not really be the case. On Nathan Yavaldi pitching for
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Texas having a really good season one point seven to
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: one ERA point eight eight whip, I mean, these numbers
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: are so good that at the age of thirty five,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I think there's no possible way that he can really
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: continue to have numbers that are that good. Although he's
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: certainly having a great season. He's actually been better on
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the road, which is pretty surprised, and one point two
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: to six the ra on the road, Rangers have a
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: pretty pitcher friendly park. He did not do well in
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: his last outing against Arizona, though, after he had a
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: really good eight inning, one hit shutout against the Yankees.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: He pitched pretty poorly against Arizona. Went five innings, given
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: five and runs on three home runs, still had only
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: one walk in the game though in three strikeouts, and
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: his team still won the game an extra inning. He's
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous Arizona's terrible pitching coming into play there. Nathany Evaldi,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: though he might be dropping a little bit out of
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: form right now, and this is what I was talking about.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Toronto are actually pretty bad. Evaldi has
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: been in Toronto's division, so they're pretty familiar with them
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: from past seasons. They have one hundred and thirty eight
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: at bats against some twenty seven to eight strike a
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: walker ratios all right for him, but three sixty two
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: batting average a lot of nine to seventy seven ops
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: and that big of sample size. Toronto definitely does hit Evaldi,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: so he might not match up very well here against Toronto.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Jose Barrios is pitching for Toronto and he's pretty much
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a staple of their rotation. He's fairly consistent from year
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: to year three point seven to four IRA, one point
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: two to six WI this year slightly worse at home
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: with a four ERA at home. Didn't really have a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: great start last time out, and I think I actually
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: gave out the Cubs as a play in that game,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: and I got caught and that was a loss for me.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: But Barrios kind of escaped that start, not allowing any
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: runs and five and a third in He's he was
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: inefficient with his pitches and he walked four guys along
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: with three strikeouts, So Barrios didn't really pitch that well
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: in that game. He's not gone deep into his last
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: three starts. He hasn't gone past five and a third
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: in any of them, even though Toronto has now won
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: five starts in a row, of his have won whatever.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: This is nine of his last ten starts and twelve
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: of his last fourteen starts. Something like that of I'm
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: able to eyeball that quickly with my stroke brain here.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Texas is not a very good offense. They've okay numbers
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: against Barrios, though in sixty three at bats fifteen to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: four strike a walk, right, she was pretty good for him.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: But two seventy average seven to ninety ops. So Texas
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: does hit Barrios all right too, but Barrios does have
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers. Mark Reed looks like it is
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: signaling on Toronto here a little bit. They're up for
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: just one oh five to one fIF fifty one percent
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and cash both on Texas, but to me,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: with Evaldi being on the mounted, it looks earlier. To me,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: it looked like Texas was actually the public side, although
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Toronto's been the public side throughout the series, so it
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: is possible that's incorrect. Money also coming in on the under,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: dropping from eight and a half to eight fifty eight
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets sixty five percent of the cash on
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the under. I could see the argument for Toronto in
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: this game, because they are certainly way better at home.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: The matchup numbers in the starting pitching actually kind of
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: point towards Toronto. I would probably do it in the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: first five just to avoid Texas's bullpen, which is better
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: than Toronto's total. As far as that. Moving down, I'm
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: not sure that I agree with that. As you saw
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: what I just showed you, both starting pitchers matchup numbers
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: are not very good here, so this being a total
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: down to eight here, I could see this game going
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: over that total. So I would not want to go
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: under that one, even though the market seems to be
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: signaling on that. Atlanta at Cleveland. Oh, this is such
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: an interesting series. Cleveland. I think I've been saying they
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: should still be playing with motivation because they could still
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: technically make the playoffs, but they've been dealing with you know,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: they got a couple of suspended from their bullpen for gambling.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Uh so their bullpen's a little bit worse for that reason.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: But I think their bullpen it still is the better
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: one over Atlanta's. And Atlanta does have the better offense though,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta is about to sweep Cleveland potentially here as
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has taken the first two games of the series
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland has scored one run this entire series. That's
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: how bad Cleveland's offense is. And their horrible offense is
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: showing up again here. As far as the bullpen usage
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: is concerned, Atlanta I only used one guy out of
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: their bullpen Yesterday's their bullpen is pretty intact here. Cleveland still,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I would say, again, does have the better of the
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: two bullpens. They use a little bit more of their
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday, so that kind of evens it out a
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: little bit. Atlanta has Eric Fetti pitching. I mean, there's
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: no way I'm gonna trust Fetti. Uh five point four
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: e RA one point four to nine whip on the season.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: He's a little bit better on the road five point
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: one to two EIRA on the road. Since being acquired
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: by Atlanta, He's gotten no more than five and a
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: third innings in any of the starts. His team only
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: won one of his starts. It's just his most recent
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: start against Miami, and he walked four guys in that start,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: so it's not exactly a good sign. He's allowed three
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: or more and runs and all three of his Atlanta starts.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: I strike a walk ratio is actually pretty abysmal. Seven
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: strikeouts to eight walks, really really bad. There's again there's
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: no way that I could put money on Fetti here,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: but he is facing a really bad Cleveland offense here,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: and his numbers against them are good. In fifty six
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: career bats, two thirty two average, allowed six to seventy
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: seven ops, so he has not been bad against Cleveland.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Cleveland to Cleveland see him at
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: all this year, No, they did not. I don't think so, Fetti.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, with that specific matchup, maybe he won't do
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: as bad in this game. Logan Allen is pitching for Cleveland.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: A three point nine to four ERA in the season
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: is pretty good, but one point three to eight whip
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: obviously not very good. He's slightly worse at home four
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: point two ERA. At home, Logan Allen, He's I mean,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: he just kind of pitches. He pitches consistently. Man, He
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: gets you like five five plus innings pretty much every start,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: and he gives up somewhere between two and four runs
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: every single start. So he just winds up being a
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: mediocre pitcher. But I do worry about him. This month,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: he has eight walks across ten innings in two starts,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: even though he has only allowed three or runs. So
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that. He's not really in the
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: greatest form right now as far as his command. He
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: just generally he walks way too many guys and doesn't
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: strike out a lot of guys numbers against the Braves
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: and seventeen at bats small sample size, but his numbers
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: aren't good. Two ninety four batting average, eight sixty three
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: ops low. That's not good. Akunya is being listed in here,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: so it looks like he is back. I don't know
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: he was injured. I don't know when he actually came back.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: I haven't really been paying attention to Atlanta's lineup, but
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: the pitching matchup numbers actually look like they're in favor
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: of Atlanta here. And my guess would be that the
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: professional money is coming in on Atlanta because it pretty
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: much always is, because Atlanta has a way better or
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a run differential to what their record suggests, but they
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: keep losing. Except this series, they have not been h there.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: They are seventy five percent of the tickets, only fifty
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Cleveland. Cleveland down for
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Minus won twenty five. The mis won twenty one. So yeah,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: the market is indicating on the Atlanta side again. Do
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: you really want to put your money on Eric Fetti though?
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Although he is an underdog here, So if you do that,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: he's an underdog. You could do it first five innings
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: if you want to avoid the fact that Cleveland's bullpen
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: is probably a little bit better than Atlanta's. I mean,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I guess I would lean with the market in that one,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: very very small lean to Atlanta, but man Eric Fetti
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: disgusting the money coming in on the under as well,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: after the total tipped up to nine juice to the under,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: but fifty eight percent of the tickets on the over
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash on the under, So
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the under. I think probably
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: part of the argument for that is that Cleveland's offense
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: is just so bad that they may actually struggle to
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: score here. So another kind of indicator that may be
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is the right side there because Cleveland's offense is
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: unbelievably bad. Fetti Goober, He's not Austin Gomber though, Austin Goober.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: I Milwaukee Cleveland. That's gonna be my best bet segment.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Houston. This series a little bit odd. I mean,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Houston lost the first game seven and nothing, with Brandon
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Young almost throwing a perfect game against Houston in that game, ridiculous,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: and then Houston did bounce back with a win yesterday
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: that I believe was an extra innings. So a lot
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: of bullpen usage, and by the way, Houston's bullpen, which
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I haven't mentioned on the show because I kind of
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: just talked about the bullpens in general. But Houston their closer,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Josh Hater I think is his name. He's been hurt
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: for a while now and they're saying he might be
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: back for the playoffs. Not a great sign, man, Houston
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: is still gonna have to make the playoffs, by the way,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: which I think they will even if they don't win
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: the Al West. I think they probably will still get
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: a wild card. But they got to keep going, man,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: They got to keep doing it. They will need obviously
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: without him and the bullpen, that hurts their bullpen a bit.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: The bullpen usage yesterday was pretty extreme. I'm pretty sure Baltimore,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: at least according to Rhodo Wire here, they don't have
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: any relievers who didn't pitch yesterday, although they might have
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: somebody else they just hasn't pitched the last like five
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: days or whatever. But a lot of bullpen usage on
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the side of Baltimore. But Houston used a lot of
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: theirs too, so the bullpen usage is pretty high. Houston
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: does have the better bullpen even without hat Or Baltimore's
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: bullpen sucks, so Houston does have the better bullpen. Houston,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give them the advantage on offense here as well.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore, they're just not good man and starting
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: pitching generally, I would say Houston probably has the better
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: starter here too, because you know me, I don't like
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Dean Kreamer, but he's pitching okay more or less this
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: year for Baltimore four point one seventy IRA, one point
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: two to five whip. He is way worse than the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: road though five point four to two roady RA. His
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: last two starts have actually been not terrible. Well, the
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: twelve to two strikeout walk right show on line five
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: and runs and fourteen innings. That's not bad. He's had command,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: but Baltimore has actually still lost five starts in a
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: row of his even though his command numbers have actually
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: kind of been okay over the last month plus, so
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: he is actually pitching a little bit better than usually
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: get out of Creamer. His numbers against Houston are pretty mediocre,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: and sixty seven at bats fourteen to two strike out
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is good, but two eighty four batting average,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: seven to thirty seven ops. Not great numbers there for
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: him going up against Christian Hobber for Houston, who has
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: a three point sixty r and a one whip that's
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: literally in one start so far. He was injured all season.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: He came back and made one start and it was
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent start against the Red Sox. I mean,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox have a pretty decent offense. Went five innings,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: gave up two hour and runs, five strikeouts, two walks.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty decent start man, especially given that he'd
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: been out of Major League Baseball for so long. Decent
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: start coming back, so I think Hobber might do okay
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: coming back. But he's always been a guy that kind
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: of walks too many guys, so you do have to
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: worry about that. His numbers against the Orioles are pretty good,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: though small twenty eight at bat sample size, but ten
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: strikeouts to two walks two fourteen average five eighty eight
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: oh ps. So I do have to kind of I
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: have to kind of give Houston the edge pretty much
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: across the board in this game, and it is not
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: really that expensive a price on them here. I don't know.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I think maybe just because Javier doesn't really command a
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: whole lot of respect in the market. Here, the money
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: kind of looks like it is joining the public on Houston.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Here they're down for mintus one forty to minus one
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: thirty seven, but eighty two percent of the tickets eighty
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash coming in on them. I mean,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you will, I guess, but
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I really I wouldn't want to play Baltimore in this one.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: On Houston is the team that has something to play
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: for too, So that's the other thing you have to
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: kind of keep an eye on there, right, because certain
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: teams have things to play for. Have Yeah, certain teams
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: have things to play for. That didn't sound right, but
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: that is what I meant. And then the one he
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in on the under in this
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: game as well, a little bit more juice on the
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: under eight and a half, fifty three percent of tickets
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: on the over, sixty seven percent of the casual on
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: the under. I mean Kreamer, because he's been in decent form.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: His numbers aren't horrible against Houston. Houston's offense has been
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: kind of iffy recently, dealing with some injuries and stuff.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Hobvier might be back and has good numbers against Baltimore.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for the under, but I
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: would not want to deal with the bullpens with how
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: unrested they are. If you went under in this game,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I think you would have to do it in the
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: first five and hopefully you can get like under four
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: in the first five. It seems a little bit dicey
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: to me, though, White Sox at Kansas City. Kansas City
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: is on the verge of sweep pier, So does that
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: mean they're gonna overlook the White Sox in the last game? Maybe?
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: I mean they have Texas up next, which is at
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: least a better opponent than the White Sox, and that's
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: kind of a battle for teams that are technically still
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: in the hunt here, I guess with Kansas City and
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Texas coming up, so maybe Kansas City will overlook the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: White Sox a little bit here. As far as the bullpens,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Kansas City does have the better of the two bullpens,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: but they used a little bit more of it yesterday
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: three relievers. White Sox I think only use one. Yeah,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: so the White Sox bullpen usage is a lot less,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: but they still have the worst of the two bullpens.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: White Sox offense is so bad that Kansas City's offense
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: is actually the better of the two. These are two
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: really bad offenses. Davis Martin is pitching for the White Sox.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: He's been mediocre four point one seven ERA, one point
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: three whip not that great back on the road though,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: five point one to four roadyra He's walking way too
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: many guys over his last four starts, though he missed
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: about a month of the season. I don't know if
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: he was down in the miners or I think he
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: might have been injured. He's walked multiple guys in four
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: straight outings, three or more, and three of the four
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: hasn't gone more than five to two thirds in he's
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: in any of those outings. So he has not been
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: very good over his last four outings. And really the
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: only one that was against a really prolific offense was Philadelphia,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: so he's doing that against him. Not great offenses either.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Numbers are mediocre slash not great against Kansas City in
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: forty four bets nine one strike out walk ratio is good,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: but a two seventy three average a lot in eight
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: twelve ops is pretty high, although Pasquentino. The pass watch
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: does have two home runs off him out of the
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: three that he's allowed to uh the Royals, but maybe
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Martin not totally trustworthy here. I'm not sure that Ryan
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Bergere is trustworthy either for the Royals. Even those season
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good two point eight seventy RA one
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: point zero nine WHIP. He spent most of the season
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: with San Diego. His home numbers are actually worse than
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: his road numbers four point two sixty RA, which is
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: him pitching in San Diego and in Kansas City or actually, sorry,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: just San Diego because with Kansas City has not made
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: a home start yet. But the fact that he wasn't
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: pitching well in a very pitcher friendly park at San
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Diego doesn't really does it suggest to me that Burgeire
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: is really that good. I don't think he's as good
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: as his numbers make him look. I mean, if you
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: look at his Reese's starts, they're not good. Like before
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Kansas City acquired him, he hadn't even gone five innings
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: in an outing. Since mid June, his two starts with
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has gone five to two thirds innings in
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: each of them, but allowed tour in runs in each
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: of them. Was really inefficient with his pitches. Kansas City
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: lost both games, although it's partially because they can't hit.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Did have eight strikeouts in one walk in his last
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: outing against Minnesota, so that's an okay sign that he
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: had decent command in that outing. But I'm not ready
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: to trust him. The White Sox have never faced him before,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: so maybe he does have a little bit of a
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: matchup edge there because teams that haven't faced a pitcher
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: before they tend to have to try to figure him out.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: But looking at the market here, the money is coming
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: in on the White Sox side. Kansas City down for
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy to minus one forty eight, seventy three
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only fifty one percent of the cash
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: on Kansas City, so the money is coming in on
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: the White Sox side. So pretty strong market indicators on
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. And then the number went down a
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: little bit to nine and a half juice to the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: under on the total, it's a pretty high total. We
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: see totals that I think are kind of too high
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: throughout the series. I almost gave out a play on
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: the under in the first game of this series, and
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: I wish I did, because that was a lean I
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: gave out on the show strong lean, and that was
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: an easy winner. Yesterday I think went under the total
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: as well, very slightly. We see sixty eight percent of tickets,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: only sixty three percent of the cash on the under.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: This time. I'm less tempted to go with any sort
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: of under in this game, though, because I don't really
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: love either starting pitcher in that game. So that's that
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: is completely a stay away Detroit Minnesota. I'm gonna have
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a play on that one, which when I describe what
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the play is, maybe you'll be like, oh, yeah, that
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: makes sense. Yankees at Saint Louis. The Yankees around the
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: verge of sweeping Saint Louis, unfortunately, because I don't want
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: that to happen. And yesterday was a really really high
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: scoring game. Even though it's Max Freed against Sunny Gray.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: They both did not pitch well in that game. Yankees
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: do have Tampa Bay up next, so they do have
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: a divisional opponent up next, so maybe it is possible
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: they overlook Saint Louis in the last game of the series.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Bullpen wise, Yankees, I still am saying have the worst
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: of these two bullpens. They're not a very good bullpen.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I used to just pretty similar on both sides. Yesterday
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis again their bullpen. They've traded away some of
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: their better relief pitchers though, so you do have to
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit. So I don't love
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: either bullpen here really, Andrew Noah Kaniga, we know that guy. Dude,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: that hat that he's selling so hilarious. I love that
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: he like plays into the meme like that. He's like
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: everybody's favorite college football player, dude, the nil stuff. I mean,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: you can buy like his jersey and stuff too, which
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: is good. But he's he's apparently not in college football.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: What is it college football twenty twenty six or whatever,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: two eight twenty six, whatever it is, he's not in it,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. Like they're afraid to put that's literally
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: his name, and you don't put him in it just
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: because his name is literally that, and that becomes a
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: meme just because of that. That's crazy. It's so stupid.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: But I love that he's playing into it, man, and
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's good, Like people are gonna pay more
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: attention to uh, low tier college football just because he's there.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: People know he plays for Eastern Michigan, so people are
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: gonna watch Eastern Michigan just because that guy is there.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Macfoot Mac football is gonna get eyes on it for once.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: I'm rooting for Eastern Michigan now, Man, I hope they
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: hope they make a Bowl or something, which they have
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: in recent years. They've been in a couple of balls
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: hard r R. What's up man, So Eastern Michigan. They're
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: a program that's doing okay over the last few years.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: I think Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees here
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: four point three four ERA and one point three seven WHIP.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: His numbers haven't been very good this year. He's really
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: bad on the road. Six point four eighty R on
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the road. So if you want to fade Will Warren,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: doing some on the road usually makes more sense. Good
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: outing last time out, seven strikeouts, no walks to and
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: runs against Minnesota at home, but prior strud on the
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: road wasn't good. He had three walks in each of
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: his last road starts. He's allowed three or more walks,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: which is not a great sign. He's not pitching as
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: well on the road, although you could argue he's in
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: decent recent form because his other starts have been okay recently.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Let's see here against Saint Louis. They have twelve at
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: bats against some two strikeouts, three walks, two point fifty
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: average nine hundred ops just because Donovan has a home
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: run off him and the team has three walks. So
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I guess Donovan is back because he was dealing with
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: some injuries recently as well. But I would say Warren's
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: probably not totally trustworthy hearing this game. He's going up
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: against Miles mikol Us Mikolas, who was also not very good.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Four point nine to seventy r a one point two
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: eight whip isn't that bad, but he's not great in general.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: He is better at home, though, three point five to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: six homey ra recently. I mean, his last start was okay,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: but it was at home against Colorado, a very weak
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: offense with six and two thirds give up two or runs.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: But actually three of his last four starts he's allowed
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: two or few earned runs, so that's not too bad.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: He's not striking out guys, but he never really does,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: but he's not allowing a lot of guys to really
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: reach base over most of those starts except for one
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: bad start against the Dodgers, so of course are a
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: really good lineup. Gave up five and runs there, But
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: obviously the Yankees are a very good lineup as well.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Obviously the Yankees have the better offense here. The Yankees
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: obviously have something to play for here, you know, because
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: they're trying to make the playoffs still and Saint Louis
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: is out of it. Micholas against the Yankees not terrible numbers.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: It's sixty at bats twenty strikeouts is quite good. To
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: five walks, two fifty batting average. He's allowed a seven
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: to twenty four oh PS a little bit high. But
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: Stanton has two of the home runs often John Carlos Stanton.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know why wasn't his name Mike at some
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: point before that. Maybe Mike was just like an americanization
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: of his name or something. I don't know. Yeah, noah, canigga.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: I know a canigga? Do you know a knigga? Yeah, dude, yeah,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: it should be like a who's on first type of bit.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Yeah, this game Yankee Saint Louis just because
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: the starting pitchers are just ugh and the bullpens are
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: uugh I mean probably an over makes sense in that game.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the under, though, which I
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: don't really understand. I mean, there's no way I would
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: want to do that. The totals flip from nine juice
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: to the over to being juiced to the under, sixty
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: six percent of tickets on the over, eighty one percent
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. I'm not really seeing that.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: I don't love the starters there. Uh, the matchup numbers
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: make them look a little bit better though, So maybe
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: that's what the thinking is on that under, that the
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: total is just too high, or because yesterday's game was
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: so high scoring that, oh, the public's gonna be on
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: the over here, so we have to come in on
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: the under here, right, Yeah, I would hesitate to do that, though.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Yankees are also a public side again, just like they
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: were yesterday, although they still won yesterday sixty eight percent
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, sixty one percent of the cash on
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: then they are up for minus one thirty minus one
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: forty five. But Yankees, you're all. He was paying attacks
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees, and with Will Warren on the road,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: the splits at least are in favor of Mikolas and
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, So Saint Louis might make sense as a
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: home underdog price there. Probably the feeling is that the
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Yankees are just overvalued almost every time, especially on the road.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't really disagree with the underdog price on
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. There like grabbing them as an underdog, but
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: it's certainly not something I would recommend a play on.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: But if you need to have money on that game,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: you know, need some interest. Maybe Pittsburgh at the Cubs.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: The Cubs lost the first game of the series in
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the return home spot won yesterday. These have been low
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: scoring games so far. Man, it looks like the total
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: in this game is also low today, so we probably
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: have wind blowing in and Wrigley feel because this starting
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup does not look like it's something that would
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: that would tell you that the line should be really
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: really low on a total like this. Both bullpens are
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: not really horrible. Pittsburgh used a few relievers yesterday. Cubs
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: probably did as well. Well. Clubs use fewer. I mean,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: you gotta give the Cubs the bullpen edge still though
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: they do have the better bullpen. Obviously they have the
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: way better offense, but total being this low, the starting
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is like, why would this total be this low.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, we know it's because the wind is blowing in,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: but I don't think you could trust these pitchers very much.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Man Modzinsky is pitching for the Pirates here. He's made
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of like starts or kind of opener appearances
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: this year. He's mostly been like a long relief man
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen. His numbers aren't very good four
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: point two ERA, one point three to nine, whip really
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: about on the road, five point six to three roady
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: ra not good. Again, he doesn't go many innings. You're
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get two three innings out of him. That's
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: typically what he's done all the earlier in the season.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: He did go four or five innings a couple of times.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: But I'm guessing he'll probably be in the game around
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: three or so innings here as an opener, especially because
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: he hasn't really gone that deep into any of these
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: recent games. So you're gonna get him. And then Pittsburgh's bullpen,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: so you gotta figure out what to do with that.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: And thirty five at bats against the Cubs, he has
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: okay numbers ten to four strike a walk ratio two
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: eighty six patting average allowed in six forty five ops.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Hoavi or Asad, the recently ousted
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: dictator of Syria. I believe it's who this guy is.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: No Hoavier Aside, I've made that joke too many times
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: on the show. But he's been out of Major League
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: baseball for a while. I think so. He is back
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: now nine ERA this year, though in two point twenty
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: five whip, which I think is only in one start.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I think he's only made one appearance so far. Yeah,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: he made one start at Toronto so far, and it
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: wasn't good. Give up four and runs off of eight
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: hits and four and he's two strikeouts, one walk. If
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: you go back over his history, he's had a decent
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: career ERA pitching his entire career with the Cubs, but
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: as a starter, his whip has been way too high.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: His whip is approaching one point four over his career
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: as a starter, so he puts way too many guys
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: on base. And that's really the issue with Asad, even
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: though he somehow limits the damn image. I don't exactly
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: know how. I mean, you could dig into the numbers.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Usually that means that he gets a lot of ground balls.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: That seems to basically be the case. He induces a
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: lot of ground balls. It's kind of how he gets
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: out of jams like that. But I don't really trust
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: pictures like that. If you're getting into jams, it's gonna
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: hurt you. Because i'mbers against the Pirates are good, though,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: I mean they were very bad offense. Thirty nine at
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: bats you only have eight hits, twelve strikeouts, two walks,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: two oh five batting average and six zho three ops.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: So SOD does have decent numbers against them. Obviously, if
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: you want the Cubs here, you have to pay a price.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: They're down from minus one ninety five to minus one
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: seventy nine, eighty nine percent of tickets, only eighty eight
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. They're very public with the line
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: moving against them, so I would not really want to
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: do anything with that. We have money coming in on
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the under as well, the total down from eight to
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Now juice to the under. It's
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: almost at seven fifty percent of tickets and ninety two
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. Again, I would
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: really hesitate to do that. I don't think you'd trust
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: their starter here, So that under no thanks for me there,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: but the win has to be blowing in at Wrigley
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: for that number to be that far, like that low
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: with a starting pitching matchup, that's that shitty. Speaking of
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: shitty starting pitching matchups, Arizona Colorado, by the way, I
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: gave out losers on the over in the first two
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: games of that series, and then I avoided it yesterday
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: and obviously what happened. Oh yeah, we had seventeen runs
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: yesterday and it easily went over the totals. So isn't
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: that just great? This game, I would say, is probably
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: also an over. I mean, we have two really bad bullpens,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: as I've said throughout the series, Arizona bad bullpen, Colorado
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: bad bullpen. Colorado used a little bit more of theirs
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: than Arizona did. Arizona's offense is way better, and we
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: know Arizona is the better of these two pitch better
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: of these two teams. But look at this starting pitching matchup.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Man Nobille Chrismott is the listed starter for Arizona. Who
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: is this guy? I don't fucking know. He was on
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: the Phillies this year. I guess he's listed as a
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher. I guess Arizona must have just picked him
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: up just because they needed bullpen arms, because I think
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: did they trade bullpen arms away. I don't even know
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: if they did, but their bullpen is terrible anyway. But
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be making a start year and probably won't
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: go that deep into this game. As far as his
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: numbers this year, does he have any numbers this year?
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I don't even think he does. I don't think he's
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: pitched in He hasn't pitched in Major League Baseball since
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: last year, where he actually had decent numbers in five
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: appearances with the Dodgers out of the bulp. But over
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: his career he hasn't been that great. Three point seven
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: one point three whip. I mean, that's not horrible, but
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: he's been kind of a journeyman. He's pitched for a
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: bunch of different teams. He actually was on Arizona in
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, so he's back with one of his
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: former teams. Never made the major league roster. I guess
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: for the Phillies this year, he does have some numbers
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: against Colorado. They have four guys who have seen him before.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Kyle Freelan, though, is a pitcher, so you can kind
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: of throw him out of the equation. But even if
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: you include his zero for one, they're four for nine often.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: So take from that what you will, I guess, but
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really think you're gonna get a great start
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: out of chrismatt ere Chrismott, however you pronounce his name. Uh.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Senza Tella's pitching for Colorado. We know he's not good.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: He's been injured as well. He has a finger injury,
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: and he's coming back from the DL. Seven point three
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: four ERA, one point nine to one whip on the season.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: That's bad. He's been even worse at home with a
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: seven point five eight RA. He went on the injured
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: list after giving up six runs against Baltimore in four
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: innings and then eight runs and two thirds of an
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: inning against Pittsburgh, the worst offense in all of baseball. Yeah,
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: it sounds to me like that finger injury. It sounds
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: to me like he actually went on the DL with shittiness.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Like it's like, yeah, I mean, this guy is so
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: bad he can't even stick in the Colorado rotation although
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: he is still there. He's coming back today and his
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: numbers against Arizona are not terrific, but they're not as
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: horrible as you would I guess in sixty seven at
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: bats eleven to five strike a walk right show is
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: still not good. Two sixty nine average a lot seven
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: to eighty two oh ps is still not great either.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: So I mean this game, I think probably the only
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: way you could look at this game is still to
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: go with an over. Both starting pitchers awful. I mean,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get an Arizona bulp end game. Essentially,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: both bulpends are awful as well, and Colorado at least
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: hits better at home. Arizona's offense is good. Stacks. What's up, man,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Uh, So, over is still the
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: only way that I could look I mean, that's basically
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: what I've said in every game this series. It's the
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: highest total out of any of the games in the series,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: though at twelve and a half juice to the over,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: you can go over thirteen in this one. Man, It's
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: one of the highest baseball totals you'll see all season.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Seventy four percent tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over. Again, the money seems like
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: it is. Coming into the over. It looks like such
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: a high total. The oddsmakers put it out that high
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: for a reason. I still think the over is the
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: only way you could possibly play that game, if you're
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: gonna play it at all. Or maybe one of the
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: team totals over Arizona's team total over, maybe something like that.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco is just on
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: a massive slide. Man, They're out of it. They've lost
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: seven games in a row after such a promising start
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: to the season. It looks like they're done. But well
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: they want to salvage this game, maybe Tampa Bay, I believe.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: I pointed out they have the Yankees up next, so
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Timpa Bay might actually have a little bit of a
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: look ahead here because Tampa Bay is pretty much out
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: of it too, So the Yankees will be a big
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: series for them. They'll want to show up to face
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: one of their big division foes there, so they may
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: not totally pay attention to the Sar Francisco. The way
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: they lost these two games, close games, losing by one
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: in each game of the series yesterday losing the game
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in the eighth inning, they could be in a little
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: bit of a heartbreak mode here, though they still might
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: be a little bit pissed off here San Francisco, they
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: do have the better bullpen of these teams still, even
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: though neither bullpen is really that bad. Tampa, I think
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: he was a little more of their open yesterday too,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: so you got to give San Francisco the bullpen edge.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa has the better offense. San Francisco's offense is terrible
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. Just looking at it on the surface, I
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: kind of like both starters, and I kind of leaned
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: towards us. San Francisco started being the better of the two.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Ryan Pepio is pitching for the Rays. His numbers are
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: pretty good on the season, especially given the fact that
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: the Rays had that really hit her friendly spring training
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: stadium Steinburner Field that they play in. He's got a
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: three eight six ERA one point one eight whip. Not
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: bad numbers on the season. Man, he is a little
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road, which is pretty surprising, even
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: though he's allowed way more home runs at home. His
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Roady Ray is higher four point three four ERA on
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: the road. This is a pitcher friendly park here, though
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: in San Francisco. He's won his last two starts. He's
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: been okay over those last two starts. Not great though,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: I mean he's walked multiple guys in four straight starts.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Did still have only a four point five RA over
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: his last two starts, so he's not like totally lighting
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: it up. He's kind of in mediocre for him right
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: now is stepping down in class to faces Giants team.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: The Giants have some weird numbers against him, you know,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: a small sample size twenty five at bats. He's only
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: allowed six hits, ten strikeouts to two walks, so those
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: numbers all look good. He sell him to two forty average,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: but they have a really high nine to seventy six ops,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: although it's mostly because Schmidt has two home runs off him.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: So if you take that out, Pepio I would say
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: he does have pretty decent numbers against San Francisco other
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: than those home runs from Schmidt, and then there is
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: one from a Damis in there too, but he can
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: probably kind of pitch his way around that. Logan Webb
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: is pitching for UH San Francisco. I mean I call
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: him the grinder because he goes so many innings, typically
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: decent numbers on the year, better than decent three point
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: three four ERA one point two to six whip. He
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: is the best starting pitcher the Giants have. Even though
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Robbie Ray is having a good season, I think Webb
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: is the more consistent of them. Web is good at
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: home as well, three point zero one ERA at home.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: After he had a bit of an issue in a
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: couple of starts around pitching into All Star Game, which
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: I think the All Star Game kind of distracted him.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: He's kind of bounced back from that. He had two
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: good starts against Pittsburgh line one run and each of them.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Last start wasn't as good, giving up four earn runs
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: against San Diego. That was a game. I give out
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the under in that game on the show and it's
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: still won. And I thought Webb, I think it was
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: web Darvish, and I thought Webb had the upper hand
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: in that matchup, so I thought we were gonna have
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: to worry about Darvish. But Darvish actually was the one
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: who pitched really well. Still we got that done. I mean,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: both pitchers pitch well enough to get that under. Webbs
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: still only walked one guy had three strikeouts. His command
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: numbers have still been pretty good over the last few starts.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Despite some walks mixed in there, thirteen to one strike
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: out walker. He's shown the two starts this month, although
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: again granted the starts redominated recently. We're against that really
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: bad Pittsburgh team. Tampa has not seen much of him,
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: the only four of their hitters have ever faced him before.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Twenty six at bats two sixty nine average, five strikeouts,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: one walk, five sixty six oh ps. So Webb does
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: do pretty well against San Francisco, but the money's coming
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: in pretty heavily on Tampa. It looks like the market
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: read is strongly on Tampa, with San Francisco down for
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: my one sixty twenty two. I think maybe part of
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: is because baseball is such a streaky sport. Fifty of
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the tickets on San Francisco, which makes no sense to me,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: but seventy two percent of the cash coming on Tampa.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know what public bet are is gonna be
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: on San Francisco at this point, but it does look
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: like the money. I think every game this series, the
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: professional money has been kind of coming in on the
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa side. Here. I would probably have slightly slightly more
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: of a lean to the under in this game. Totals
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: down from seven and a half to now seven juice
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: to the over, you might still be able to get
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: under seven and a half, sixty four percent of tickets
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: on the over and ninety of the cash conte on
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the under. So it looks like if you like the under,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: your fad in the public as well. I do think
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers should do pretty well in this game
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, and it's a picture friendly park. Both
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: bullpens are fairly trustworthy, so I think under is probably
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the lead in that game. Uh, it's not gonna be
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: the leaning Anaheim at the A's and the A's are
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: on the Vergin, maybe sweeping Anaheim. You're winning the first two,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: scoring seventeen runs in the series so far and two games,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: so the A's offense is doing well here. This is
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: a very hitter friendly park here, this Sacramento Triple A
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Stadium of the A's playing, and typically the A's have
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: not done well as far as being able to win
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: games here. That hasn't gone well, but we've seen a
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: lot of runs be scored in the stadium. Anaheim is
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: pretty much out of it at this point. I mean,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: we know both these offenses are actually not horrible. I
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: mean the A's offense is actually pretty good. Anaheim's is decent.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are awful. The A's used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Anaheim used four as well, so the bullpens are definitely
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: fade worthy in this game. These bullpens stink as well,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: and they're not not really well rested. Jose Soriano pitching
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: for Anaheim. He's been really difficult to gauge man because
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: he's just all over the place three point eight four
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: ERA but and a not very good one point three
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: seven whip. He is way better on the road two
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: point four to eighty RA, but does that mean that's
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: gonna translate to pitching better in this horrible, very hitter
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: friendly park. I don't know. He pitched well in his
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: last outing, a six inning shutout against the Dodgers, which
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: is really really impressive, even though a start before that
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: it was really bad. Give up seven earned runs against Tampa.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: He's actually allowed two or fewer earned runs and all
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: of his other outings going all the way back through
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: into early July. So Soriano he's actually pretty much a
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: decent form recently, ten to three strike out walk ratio
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: this month isn't too bad either, so he is pitching okay. Recently,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the A's are not great and fifty
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: five at bats fourteen to seven, strike out walk ratio
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: two seventy three average allowed, nine hundred oh ps. That's
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: not great. So Soriano, I mean, I don't know if
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: he's totally trustworthy in this game, in this stadium either,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: going up against Jeffrey Springs, who actually hasn't been too
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: bad for the A's this year four point oh six
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: CRA one point one to five whip, a little bit
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: worse at home four point three to five YRA, but
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: he is able to kind of withstand how bad the
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: stadium is. He wasn't on a nice run where he
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: actually he's given up three or fewer earned runs and
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: all but two starts going all the way back through
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: the beginning of June. But one of those worst starts
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: was his most recent start against Tampa. You give it
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: four and runs and three and a third innings, which
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: isn't great after he pitched well the prior three starts.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: He went six innings in each of the prior three
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: along two or fewer earned runs. Still does have a
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: seven to one strike a walk ratio this month, so
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: he's still in kind of decent command recently, and his
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: numbers against Anaheim are okay. In thirty six at bats
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeouts is pretty good. Three walks two seventy eight
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: batting over seven to twenty two ops. So Springs, I mean,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: I kind of hesitate to go over to recommend the
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: over in this game just because I think Springs could
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: potentially pitch okay here. It is possible Sorianna pitches okay
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: as well. The money has kind of come in on
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: the Anaheim side, flipping them for plus one undred to
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: minus one eleven taket seventy three percent of the cash
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on them. I mean, neither of these teams
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to play for. I mean, I
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: do kind of think both teams still have a reason
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: to show up in this game because it is a
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: divisional rivalry here. I don't think the A's are going
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: to like overlook Anaheim when the A's are the worst
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: team in their division, even though they are on the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: verge of potentially sweeping. I think they might want that sweep,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: but the money is slightly coming in on Anaheim even
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: though they're public and slightly on the over. I guess
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: with the total of ten sixty two, take a sixty
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the over. I do
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: hesitate with that one, just because I think the starting
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: pitchers could actually do okay in the game, but the
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: bullpens are definitely fatable. San Diego at the Dodgers. We
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: have a couple of big games left here. This is
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: the last of the afternoon games. The Dodgers on the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: verge of a sweep peer after they actually fell behind
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: San Diego in the standing. San Diego is on a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: really nice run of The Dodgers were on a really
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: bad stretch. But I said, I thought the Dodgers had
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: the matchup advantage in both of these games in the
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: series so far, and I was correct. They were able
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. They got the win, and they retook
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: the lead in the division with a win yesterday and
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: a six and nothing shut out. Does that mean San
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Diego is gonna bounce back here? Uh, They're gonna try,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: They're gonna show up here. But I actually I think
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers have a starting pitching edge in this game too.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: San Diego is a bullpen edge. They have the better
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: bullpen than the Dodgers doing. They're not really unrested right
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: now either. So San Diego has the better bullpen, the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have the better offense, and that's been the case
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: throughout the series. Obviously that's not gonna change. Starting pitching
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: matchup is interesting with you Darvish pitching. His numbers don't
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: look good right now. Five point six one ERA, one
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: point two two whip, but I think he's better than
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: his ra would suggest. His whip is kind of back
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: in the range that you would expect it to be. Yeah,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: he's been bad on the road seven point three six
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: ERA on the road. Uh, but you gotta give him
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a pass for some of what's
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: been going on here because he's trying to come back
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: from being injured. He didn't pitch this year in the
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Majors until July. He struggled a little bit out of
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: the gate, and then he had one really good start
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: against the Mets where he started turning things around. Had
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: kind of a backslide against Arizona on the road, which
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: is a difficult place to play. Then he had a
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: good start again, as I mentioned last time out, went
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: six innings, lone one and run at San Francisco six strikeouts,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: no walks. I know that's a pitcher friendly park, but
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: I actually gave out the under in that game. As
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: I said on the show, that was a winner. Darvish
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: pitched well, so he's in good form right now, and
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: his numbers are actually better than you would think. Against
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers in one hundred and ninety four at bats,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: forty five to eighteen strike a walk ras. I know
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: Darvish he does kind of walk too many guys, even
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: though he does have the ability to fool guys as well.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: But in that huge stample size, he's held the Dodgers
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: to a really low one ninety six batting average, which
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: is pretty crazy, and a six twenty eight OPS is
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: still not very high, even though he has a lot
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: of seven on runs then three of them from Freddy Freeman,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: so he might be able to pitch around him. But
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I think Darvish will actually come out and pitch well
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: in this game, that would be my opinion. And he's
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: up against Tyler Glasno, who seems like he is kind
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: of back and formed after he's been dealing with injuries
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: basically since the Dodgers have gotten him three point zero
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: eighty RA this year. The one point one two whip
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: those are good numbers, really good at home, limited sample size,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: but two point one five ERA at home. His walk
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: numbers have been an issue though. He's walked eleven guys
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: over his last three outings, so that's definitely a concern.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Toronto's excuse. The Dodgers have lost both of us starts
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: this month. Last started against Toronto, he was not good
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: with four walks, but he did have eight strikeouts only
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: allowed two earn runs, so it's not all bad for
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Glass though there Prior to started, he pretty much dominated
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis for seven innings, seven strikeouts, one ear and run,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: so he is still pitching well. He's got a fifteen
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: to six strikeout walkers year this month seven hits allowed
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: in twelve and two thirds inning, so that's still not bad.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: The walk numbers got to go back down again, but
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: he's not getna hit hard for the most part here
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: most part, he is pitching well for the most part.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Two point one three ERA in those two starts this month,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: and he has really good numbers against San Diego and
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: seventy eight at bats twenty eight strikeouts, four walks, one
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: twenty eight average and three seventy six o ps, so
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: he is pretty much dominant numbers against San Diego. So
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: I do think glass no should pitch well here. I
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: would probably have a slight lean to the Dodgers in
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: the first five innings and then glass noow does have
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: the pitching matchup, but they're down for minus one to
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: fifty minus matchup edge, I should say, but they're down
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: for minus one to fifty to minus one thirty two year,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of tickets, fifty eight percent of the
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: cash on San Diego. So the money is coming in
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: in San Diego here, which does worry me a little
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: bit about that that the money seems to be disagreeing
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: with the Dodgers a little bit there. I think the
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: under is the better way to look in this game,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: though we have sixty three percent tickets eighty percent of
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, though, but I was considering
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: making the under in this game a play, to be honest,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: like the bullpens are at least resting enough, and we
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: know San Diego's is good, so even though the Dodgers'
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: bullpen isn't that good, if Glasnow can get us kind
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: of deep into the game. That should kind of take
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: care of that situation a little bit. But total sitting
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half, I do think both starting
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: pitchers could do well here. If you want to exclude
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' bullpen, you could go under in the first
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: five innings as well, but my leam would be to
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: some sort of under in that game. Or you could
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: go maybe San Diego first five under their team total
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: and just take Glass now to really dominate them over
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: that stretch or Glass no under whatever the earned run
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: total is on him, something like that. And then the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: ESPN Night game is Mariners Mats, which is a pretty
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: interesting series. Then that's actually finally got another win yesterday.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've been playing some bad baseball, but they
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: got the win behind rookie Nolan McLain and his debut. Though,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: like I said, he did walk too many guys yesterday,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: but he had a pretty impressive start and I got
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: the under right in that game. First five innings. Full
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: game also went under to me. I think Seattle, excuse me,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: might bounce back here though Seattle does have the better
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: of the two bullpens in my opinion well, and the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: stats would suggest that as well. I didn't use a
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: whole lot of their bullpen. Yes, today the Mets didn't either,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: but Metts have had more usage recently. I think you
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: got to give Seattle a bullpen edge year. I think
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: you may arguably have to give Seattle a a hitting
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: edge year as well. Let me see, I do have
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: the hitting stats up here. Where are we at? It's
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: very very close. Actually, just arranged this by ops. They're
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: both very close eleven and twelve. So the Mets slight edge.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe you give them the slight edge hitting
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: wise because they're at home. This is a very interesting
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: pitching matager with George Kirby pitching for the Mariners. Nice
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: numbers this year three point seven to one ERA, one
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: point seven whip. He is a bit worse on the
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: road four point eight r on the road. Basically every
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: Seattle pitcher is better at home because it's a picture
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: from the environment there. But Kirby has been really, really
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: good over his last four starts, only allowing four earned
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: runs total. He's picked up a win in every single
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: one of those starts he's he's picked up a win
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: himself and seven of his last eight and the only
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: game they lost was a game against Milwaukee over that
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: tire stretch again. He's allowed only four and runs across
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: his last four starts, going six innings or more in
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: all of them. Two shutout appearances in those starts this
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: month is a sixteen to two strike a walk ratios.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: He is pretty much dominating right now. Kirby is in
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: very good for him right now, but his numbers are
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: bad against the Mets. That's the thing that kind of
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: gives you some pause here. Thirty nine at bats, four
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: to three, strike a walk ratio, three eighty five average
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: allowed of nine to ninety three oh ps. So you
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: have to dial it back a little bit on Kirby
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: because his numbers are not very good against the Mets.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: Clay Holmes pitching for the Mets, he's the worst of
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: the two pitchers though. Man I mean, three point seven
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: to one ERA is fine, but one point three to
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: five whip indicates that there's no way that his ERA
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: can continue to be as good as it is, even
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: though I keeps saying that, and he keeps kind of
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: keeping his ra there. But I don't think he's that good.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: He is a little bit worse at home three point
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: nine to ninety R eight at home, and he has
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: been in much worse form recently than Kirby has been homes,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: going five or fewer in in his last four starts,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: not striking out a lot of guys. Last start he
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: walked five guys against Atlanta, give up five and runs
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: and three to two thirds innings. He's not pitching very
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: well right now. Ten to six strig a walk ratio.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: Kirby's THERA this month I think is in the ones
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: and Holmes this is in the sevens. So I know
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size, but recent form, Kirby has
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: a big edge there. Holmes doesn't have good numbers against
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Seattle either, really had forty three at bats fourteen to
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk ratios all right, but three h
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: two average seven to twenty four oh ps isn't that high.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: But I think Kirby is the better of the two pitchers.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: I know his numbers aren't good against the Mets, but
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: he's pitching really well recently. I think recency matters a
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: little bit more. The money's coming in in Seattle, and
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that because I think they do
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: have the edge kind of across the board here. You
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: have to lay a price on the road though, which
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: may not be totally justified. But they flipped from plus
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: one hundred to minus one twenty sixty five percent taket
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash coming into them. So
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Seattle in that game,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: and it's coming in towards the over seventy percent takes
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash coming on the over.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: It's up to eight and a half juiced to the over.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: I could see that if you put stock into the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: fact that both starting pitchers have bad matchup numbers, and
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Holmes just isn't in good form right now. Excuse me,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: So I do see some potential arguments for an over
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: in that game. All right, let's get the best bets.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if Colton is still here for this,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: but like I said, you guys are not gonna like
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: the first one, except Colton will like it. What are
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: we gonna do here. We're gonna go with the Cincinnati
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: Reds money line full game minus one ten, partially just
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: because it's a better number on the full game. If
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: you want to go first five innings, you could do
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: that just to go with the starting pitching magic because
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: I do think their biggest edge in this game is
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup, So you go with that too
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: if you want to. You're gonna have to pay probably
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: minus won twenty five for that though, so it's a
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: little bit. I like the price better on the full game,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: and I think it just it feels right to just
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: do it, man, even though that's not an argument, but
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: I know we're jumping in front of a Milwaukee train
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: with Milwaukee's won fourteen games in a row and they've
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: basically been unkillable. They had a game against the Mets
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: where they overcame like a six run deficit. They overcame
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: a seven run deficit in the first game of this series.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: I understand Milwaukee is basically unbeatable right now. Yesterday they
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: could have lost last night. The game went into extra
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: innings and they still won. But if you look at
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: what happened in the game yesterday, Milwaukee used almost all
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: of their relief pitchers. DL Hall is on the IL
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: now the DL whatever, so he's not available. So they
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: will only have two pitchers who were in their bullpen
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: who didn't pitch yesterday, and one of them is Meyers.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: So they kind of want to save for their starting rotation.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: So Milwaukee, their bullpen's in really bad shape here after
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: these games. They had five relief pitchers who pitched both
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: yesterday and the day before that. So you want to
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: talk about a used up bullpen, although I know Cincinnati's
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: is also used up a bit. They used most of
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: their relievers yesterday as well. They used two relievers in
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: both of the last two games as well, although one
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: of them, Borlow, only made five pitches yesterday, so maybe
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: you'd see him again today. So bullpen rest edge I
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: do think is slightly in favor of Cincinnati. I know,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: even though it looks really dicey, I think Cincinnati actually
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: could debatably have the better bullpen at this point. You
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: look at the bullpend. I haven't arranged by whip here.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: I know Cincinnati's bullpen whip isn't that good. But where's
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at at this point? Milwaukee, where are you? Oh?
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: The bullpen whip is actually better? Excuse me, Milwaukee, Uh, yeah,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: they're the slightly better bullpen. I guess their era is
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: only slightly better. The whip is significant, like somewhat significantly better,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: but the era only slightly better. So Cincinnati the bullpens
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: are not that much of a difference between the two
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: really though, And I think Cincinnati they have more need here, man,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: although I know I've been saying that throughout the series.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee they don't need this shit, Like, look at their situation.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, they have a nine game lead over the Cobs,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: who are the nearest competitor. And by the way, who
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: are they playing next after they've pretty much had the
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: upper hand in this series. Oh yeah, they play the
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs starting tomorrow with a double head or tomorrow a
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: huge doubleheader against the Cubs, and what's gonna be a
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: five game series that could really kind of shift the
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: tide in the division a little bit of the Cubs
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: are able to do something crazy. So that's a big series.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I think that might be a look ahead from Milwaukee
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: as well. I think they might overlook Cincinnati in this spot,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: and I think this might be the spot. Man. I
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: can be a streak breaker at times. I was able
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: to do it with the Winnipeg Jets when they were
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: on a huge run. I went against them and I
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: got a win, a breaking one of their longest streaks.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do it here, man, I'm gonna take Cincinnati
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: to break this streak here. As a starting pitching matchup,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: I think you have to go with Cincinnati having the
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: edge of the starting pitching here. I know the Brewers
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense, but Jose Kintana, he can't
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: possibly keep doing this three point four to four e
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: I know it's good, but one point three whip is
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: a bit high. So he's a journeyman pitcher. He does
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: not come in with electric stuff and blow people away.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: He kind of just throws junk. And yes he's a
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: smart pitcher. Yes he's a veteran. He has good command,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: hasn't a lot a lot of runs this year, but
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: at some point something's got to give. I know he's
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: better on the road two point seventy RRA on the road,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: but this is a tougher park to pitch in. It's
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park. I know this month good numbers
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: three point one eighty RA. He's won all three of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: his starts, fourteen to three strike a walk ratio. Yeah,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: he's pitching well this month, but it was against Washington
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta Pittsburgh. Those are not good offenses. So this
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the best offense that he's faced. Since
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: he faced the Dodgers in that time out. He didn't
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: pitch that well against the Dodgers, he still gotta win,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: did have five strike as no walks when he gave
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: it four and runs again. I think that he might
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: not do as well in this game, though, Man, and
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: against the Reds. The Reds have actually hit him well
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: in sixty one at bats ten to eight strike a
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not very good for him two ninety
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: five batting average eight h three oh ps. So the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Reds to have the ability to hit Kingtana, They've done
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: it in the past. He is probably the least of
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: all the Brewers starting pitchers. Man, He's like the bottom.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: He's the total back end of the rotation, the ass
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: of the rotation, if you will. So I think he
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: is definitely beatable, even though his numbers have been good
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: this year and Milwaukee's been so unbeatable. But this is
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: the matchup where you gotta go with it, man, because
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: this is Milwaukee's worst starter basically against Cincinnati's best starter
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: besides maybe Hunter Green. You guys know, I love Hunter Green,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: but Andrew Abbott having a really good season two point
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: four to one ERA one point one to one whip.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: He's been really good at home two point two two
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, pretty decent form, at least if you
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: look at his last start, which is against Philadelphia, a
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: really good lineup, six strikeouts, no walks, three on runs
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: allowed seven to two thirds. He was respectable in the
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: start before that against a good Cub lineup as well,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: four earned runs allowed. You know, he didn't get any
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: run support in either of those starts, so he lost
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: both starts, but wasn't entirely his fault. Those were difficult offenses.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: So he's actually not really stepping up in class to
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: face this Brewer offense because he's really just facing three
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: good offenses in a row. And actually I think the
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Brewers offense is slightly worse than the Cubs in Philadelphia,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: even though the Brewers still have a good offense. They're
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: good on the road, and I get all that. But
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: Abbott against the Brewers, he's been good and seventy three
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: at bats, twenty strikeouts, five walks, two five batting are
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: six thirteen ohps. So Abbott is the better of the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: two pitchers. He has the better of the matchup numbers here.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in in Cincinnati they're already up
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: for minus one of five to minus one, twenty fifty
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets on Milwaukee, but sixty five percent
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in Cincinnati. We're gonna do it, man, Cincinnati,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: get whatever the best number you can is. If you
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: want to go first five innings. I think that's fine
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: as well, because they do think their bullpen is technically
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: the slightly worse of the two bullpens, so I think
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: based on the usage, Milwaukee's basically running out of bullpen
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: arms and they might have to go to their bullpen
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: earlier than Cincinnati does too. So we're gonna go with
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: the Reds. There you go, Colt and Red's money line.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: I know, like I said, that's a crazy one. You
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: guys are probably gonna hate it. The other one that
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: I have is gonna be an over, and it looks
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: like the money's agreeing with us on this one as well.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: It is Tiger's Minnesota over the nine. I know it's
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: a bit of a high total. I saw it out
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: there at even money, although I don't think you can
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: get that anymore because it's already all the way up
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: from nine to nine juice to the over. I would
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: play nine up to minus one twenty on the over man,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: because nine is a key number. You don't want to
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: have to go to nine and a half and go
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: over that because nine breaks the four to four tie.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: I still like the over in this game, though, I
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a high scoring game. So
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: that is the way that I'm going here. Again, if
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: you find the nine over it about minus one twenty,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: I think that's the way to go. I mean, I
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: would still probably even go over the nine and a half,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: even though it is a little bit diceier. I like
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: this better number, way better, obviously. But this game looks
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: like it's just gonna be bad bad pitching, man. I mean, Detroit,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is actually falling off. I was talking about
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: how their bullpen was good earlier in the season, but
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: their era is over four now is a bullpen. So
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: Detroit's bullpen has not been very good recently, and they're
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: not as good on the road either. Detroit only three
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: relievers yesterday, so whatever, but their bullpen's not good. Minnesota
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: used five relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen used to have
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: just been really high over the last few days, and
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is not good. Some Minnesota. He got a
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: really bad bullpen with Minnesota, and they traded away Ei
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: their closer as well, So we got a couple of
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: bullpens that are not very good. Detroit at least has
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty good offense. Minnesota doesn't really have a great offense.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: But again, a lot of this is about how bad
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: the pitching is. Chris Paddock is pitching here for Detroit.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Four point seven to six the RA and one point
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: two to whip. Those numbers, Yeah, I mean the whip
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: is fine, but the numbers are not great. Five point
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: zero nine era on the road, although a lot of
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: his home starts are in this stadium, of course because
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: he was on Minnesota, but that does mean Minnesota knows
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: his tendencies. Oh and guess what. He's made three starts
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: with Detroit so far. Two of them were good where
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: he allowed one and run a piece in two of
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: the three starts. What start was the one that was
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: really bad? Oh? Yeah, it was the one against Minnesota.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: Even though he should have been pumped up the faces
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: former team, he did horrible. He went four innings at
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: this was in Detroit, and he gave up fourign runs,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: two omer six hits, didn't have any strikeouts, didn't walk anybody.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: But that was an ugly, ugly start for Paddock. So
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: I think he might do poorly again here against his
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: former team in Minnesota, man because they just saw him,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: so now they've seen him in an actual game environment. Yeah,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: he might want to get back at them, but Minnesota
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: might be kind of angry and kind of motivated to
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: get back on him too. So he just doesn't have
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: good numbers against Minnesota in general either. In twenty at
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: bats two zero strike a walk ratio is fine, but
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: three hundred batting average and one fifty ops. So I'm
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: not expecting Paddock to pitch well here. He's not really
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: a very good pitcher either, and if you look at
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: well again, his numbers in this stadium still weren't really
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: that good this year going up against It's not undecided,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: it's actually Thomas Hatch is the starter from Minnesota here,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: and I think that's gonna be a major problem because
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: he is basically a relief pitcher. Who is this guy?
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know. He has a five point five nine
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: y RRA and one point seven to six whip this season.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: That's pretty bad. Five point five niney ray only in
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: road starts actually, so he hasn't really done anything. He's
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: made three appearances, all on the road. One of them
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: was against Detroit. I get that he didn't allow any
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: runs in that one, I know, which was his first
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: appearance with Minnesota, but that does mean that Detroit just
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: saw him, so Detroit is recently familiar with him. So
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: both of these offenses, I point this out, when an
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: offense just saw a pitcher, they tend to do a
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: little bit better against that pitcher. So I think that
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: could be the case here. And I don't think Hatch
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: is gonna go deep into this game either, man, He's
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: going He went four and a third in both of
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: his outings so far with Minnesota, and his last outing
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: was horrible. He went four and a third. I know
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: it was on the road against the Yankees. Yeah, so
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are good, but there's no way that you
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: can excuse having seven walks in that outing plus five
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: hits on top of that. He was horrific in that game,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: so inexcusable. I know his numbers against Detroit are actually good.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: In seventeen of baths small sample size one eighteen average
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: twenty four oh ps. I don't think you could trust him.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be in the game very long,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: and then it's gonna give way to Minnesota's bullpen. Looks
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: bad all around to me from a pitching perspective. So
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: over is the play there in Minnesota is getting the
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: money too, with sixty three percent of tickets on Detroit,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: they're down for minus one forty five to minus one
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: twenty three, fifty percent of the cash. Though on Minnesota.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't understand that really. I mean, if
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: you really want to play in Minnesota, I would say
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: go with the first five innings because you don't want
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: to deal with Minnesota's bullpen. But Hatch has the better
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers. At least you could definitely argue that he'll
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: get you through some of those innings more than Paddock will.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: But this game, to me, this is an over So
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Those are the two plays there.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: Let's go to NFL before I get out of here.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: I know I don't even have it up here, but
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: we can just look at the We'll just look at
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: the screen here. We have two NFL games today. I
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: don't know if there's really a whole lot of interest
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: in these games. Jaggs Saints looks like a pretty ugly one.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: The Jags or a two and a half point road
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: favorite here. I believe Trevor Lawrence is gonna play a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: little bit in this game for the Jags. They might
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: be a favorite even if he wasn't. Because the Saints,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: even though they're starting their new starting quarterback. I guess
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: in Tyler Shaw, the twenty seven year old who they drafted,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: was basically playing in college. He was an old man.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: He's he's gonna be playing in this game for the Saints.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if it matters which quarterbacks are
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: in there for the Saints. Their quarterback stink. Their quarterbacks
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: back rotation stinks. The total has gone up a little
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: bit to forty and a half. If I was gonna
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: play this game, probably would be looking Jags over their
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: team totals, just because Lawrence might be out there and
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: they want to get him some reps, so their offense
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: might be trying earlier in the game. Or maybe Jags
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: over their team total first five innings might be the
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: way I would lean there. Then Bill's Bears is kind
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: of interesting. Bears up from one and a half to three.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: The Bears are obviously a favorite here because they're starting
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams in this game, so he will be out
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: there for a little bit. The Bills are not playing
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen here. They just don't. I mean, he doesn't
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: need the reps. Obviously, they don't want to get him hurt.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: So Josh Allen, he might show up a little bit
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: in the final preseason game, but they're not gonna play him.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: Sean McDermott seems like he does want to win preseason games,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't play like Josh Allen, so obviously he's
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: not going to that extent to try to win these games.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit of a revenge modive, maybe because
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: I think the Bears kind of embarrassed the Bills during
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: preseason last year. The Bears beat them up. But do
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: you really care that much? Is that really that much
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: of a revenge modive? I'm not so sure about that.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: And the Bills already played their one home preseason games,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: so now they have two road preseason games to finish
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: preseason and Bills are playing in Ralph Wilson Stadium or
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: whatever it is for the final time this season before
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: they move into their new stadium, which will at least
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: still have an open roof at least, so at least
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: they'll still be snow falling in Buffalo. But I hate
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: this tendency to pussify the NFL and make it less
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: geared towards snow games. That's bullshit. But the Bills will
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: be in a new stadium next year, but I don't
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: think the roof in that stadium closes, so at least
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: there's that. Hopefully the Bears don't get a roofed stadium
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: and me, come on, man, you need that Lake effect snow.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: It's crazy. This is football, baby. But anyway, the Bears,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be I believe their first home preseason game,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. I think they're on the road
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: for the other ones, so they might be a little
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: bit more pumped up for that, which might be part
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: of the reason why the line is moving in their
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: direction too. Bills. Their backup quarterbacks do have experience, though,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: so it's not like the Bills are gonna be like
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: totally out of this game or anything like that. As
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: far as other quarterbacks are way worse. Like they have
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky, who's actually pitching against one of his former teams,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: the Bears. Right, I think the Bears drafted him, but
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: Trubisky has been around for a while, but that does
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: mean he has experience, so I think he will probably
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: play well here. And the Bills, it's their backup quarterback battle.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be between Trubisky and Mike White or whatever
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: his name is. So the Bills have two fairly experienced
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks are battling for the backups, at least in
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: this game. Bears, I think their quarterback rotation isn't really
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: that bad either with Tyson Bagent is still there and
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: everybody kind of shits on that guy, but I actually
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: think he's good. Like I don't care that he was
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: a Division two quarterback. He looks pretty good. He was
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: out there last week. I know I saw one touchdown
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: that he threw. He actually looked good. Beigent has made
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: some starts in the NFL as well. I don't think
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: he's that bad so the Bears, and I think the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: Bears have one other pretty experienced quarterback that they added
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: this year. I forget who it is, though. They have
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: one other guy I think I can't even remember. But anyway,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: that's the reason the Bears are favored. It's mostly because
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen's not playing. Caleb Williams is playing, but a
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: loose think the money's kind of coming back on the
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: Bills a little bit. Maybe the line is gone too
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: far on the Bears. This total is up to forty one.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: I could see going Bears over their team total as
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: well in this but just because Williams will be out
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: there for some period of time, their offense will be trying.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Williams is very good. I'm on
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: record with that, so I don't know. Their offensive line
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: might still be fairly bad as well. So we'll see
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: what happens in that game. Man, that's not gonna be
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: anything I'm gonna recommend putting money on though. But my
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: team totals, I think in the preseason are like six
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: and one or seven and zero, something like that. So
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: I mean these team totals, I mean they've been doing
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: well this year. The games have gone the games have
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: really been going over in the preseason so far, which
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: is crazy. JC. What's up? Man? Thanks for hanging out,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: but I'm basically ready to get out of here again.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: The place today or the Cincinnati Reds money line. I
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: know we're doing it. We're gonna go. This is the
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: first time I'm trying to fade the Brewers during this
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: entire win streak. I think I don't think I've faded
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: them since. Have I think maybe I did in the
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: first five innings once with Atlanta, maybe I forget, But
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: other than that, I haven't done it full game. But
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: we're going Red's money line and we're going Detroit Minnesota
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: over the nine in baseball. That's gonna do it. Learn
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: its own on Twitter, learn its own on Instagram, right
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: post short form betting content there as well. Yeah, go follow,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: you know, like subscribe, better off debt. It helps me out.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: Help out the YouTube channel. Let's get more subscribers. Let's
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: get monetized, baby, and be awesome to blow this thing up.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: I'm on the audio platforms as well. You can go
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: help me out with a review, a rating, Spotify, Apple
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: covering in you because my ukulele project which is also
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, So check that out. Let's up the subscribers
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: there as well. Help that channel out as well. And
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com learn to toad and at the higher
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: levels you can get a Spotify, Patreon ukulele stream right
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: now or ukulele feed right now, and highest level gets
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: prioritize requests right now. I'm trying to fix my voice,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: and I think I got to do some like live
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: you like request streams or something like that, and maybe
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: make some of those Patreon only. I think that would
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: help with them. Maybe at first I'll just do them
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: for the public and then start making the Patreon only.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: We'll see that's gonna do it. Happy Sunday, everybody. Let's
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: get some wins today and peace