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Is the Liberal Party a ‘caucus sleepwalking to its death’? · Kvetch & Release

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So we look across the border and we saw something
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: that we haven't seen since what nineteen seventy eight, President
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden deciding, you know what, I'm going to put
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: the party in front of me. I'm going to put
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: the country in front of me. I'm not going to
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: seek my own ambition. You decided I'm not running for reelection.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: It changed everything. The trajectory change, the conversations changed, people
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: got energized. One hundred million dollars was raised, no small
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: feat in such a short period of time. It's a
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: whole new Democratic Party. It's a whole new election, quite frankly.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But you know what's not new our politics up here
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: in Canada. Everything seems like it's staying the same. And
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: my next guest had a really really interesting line. Just
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: a caucus sleepwalking to its death is how it's being
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: described right now. Liberal strategist Andrew Perez joins me to
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: discuss leadership politics and they and the US given that
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: unprecedented event with President Biden announcing no reelection, and I
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: wonder if we will ever see something like that up here. Andrew?
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: How you doing great? It's great to be on your
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: show again, Joe.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Great to have you here. So you think that Prime
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Minister Trudeau will take a page out of the Joe
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Biden playbook and say, you know what I'm done. I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: put my feather in my cap, I'm walking away. I'm
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: gonna go get a board seat somewhere, get some riches
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: coming in. Or is he in it to try to
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: win it?
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: So I think it's too early to truly answer that question,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: but there's no doubt that as of today, Trudeo is
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: obviously not following Biden's lead. And let's be clear, there
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: are some parallels between what just happened in the US
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: and our situation up here, but there's also some some
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: major differences. Obviously, Biden was pressure to resolve because of
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: what's evidently cognitive decline and a disastrous debate performance, and
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: a sense that he would not have the stamina to
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: run a successful campaign and be an effective campaigner. We
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: know that Trudeau. That's where Trudeau excels. He's a very
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: talented campaigner, and he's at fifty two years old, he's
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: certainly not into his eighties like Biden. I think what's
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: interesting is how the Democratic Party overnight consolidated its support
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: the grass roots the establishment. Every Democratic governor has now
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: endorsed Kamala Harris for president. The super PACs have mobilized,
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: have raised more than one hundred million dollars in a
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: mere four days, and so I think if there's anything
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: we can learn from these unprecedented events in the US,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: it's that the federal Liberal Party still does have ample
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: time to turn this ship around. The Liberal ship is addressed,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: if I can say, the captain doesn't seem to be
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: willing to change course, nor does the crew. But I
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: think maybe the events down south will will generate a
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: debate and some political urgency, and maybe some MPs and
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: party establishment will say, hey, if they did it down south,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: we still have a year year and a half before
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: the next federal election. Let's get our ship in order
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: and start thinking about renewal.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad that you said get the ship in order,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: because otherwise we would have had to go and hit
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the eight second back button, because I don't know if
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: you're allowed to say that word on air, But it
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: is ship with a pee, as you just said there, Andrew.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So this is this is not in the States democrats
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: in disarray. This is Democrats in array. Quite frankly, but
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I mean the same can be set up here. It
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like there is an appetite among at least
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: our elected Liberals to get rid of the leader. I mean,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: we hear some rumblings here or there about who might
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: be a replacement, but there's no one really out in
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the public that seems to be, you know, trying to
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: take them at or positioning themselves and what do you
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: think that?
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: So I think that's a key point, and I think
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: that's the key differentiator here. Perhaps, I mean, in hindsight,
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: it's clear that Kamala Harris was the heir apparent. Perhaps
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: that wasn't evident a month ago. I know there was
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: talk of other people that could come in, but that's
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: clearly what's happened here. And I think the other key
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: differentiator is that clearly pressure was exerted on Biden and
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: his inner team from among the most senior Democrats in
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: the country Nancy former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former President Biden,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: perhaps the Clintons. I don't think Biden went quietly. I
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: think he did resist, but ultimately the writing was on
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: the wall. That's the key difference. There's no concerted pressure
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: from the Liberal caucus, from members of Trudeau's cabinet, from
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: the party apparatus. We saw a bit of that come
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: out right in the aftermath of the stunning by election
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: defeat in Toronto Saint Paul. A couple adventures who aren't
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: running again. Some former ministers who are disgruntled spoke up,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: but that quickly dissipated. And so without that pressure, I
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: think we're going to be in a holding pattern because
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: there is no mechanism to remove a sitting Prime minister,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: just as there's there was no mechanism to have an
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: incumbent president not seek a second term. So I will
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: be waiting to see, you know. I note that the
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: House is coming back, the House of Commons is coming back.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: In early early to mid September, there's going to be
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: another critical by election in the Montreal riding of La
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Salle mar ver Dunn, which has historically been a very
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: safe Liberal seat held by former Justice Minister David Lahmetti.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: That riding is teetering on being lost by the federal Liberals.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: So if we have another seismic event, like another safe
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: seat that's lost, perhaps that will blow open the doors
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: for more engagement and for more open discussion like we
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: saw in the US around leadership.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Hey yeah, maybe another big loss like occurred, one that
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: they weren't expecting, can shake them into realizing there's a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: need to shake things up. But I don't know absence that.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: It's not like the situation isn't looking dire right now.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, the polls are not great for the Liberals.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Peer polyev is continuing to increase. I guess the only
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: thing they have going for them is that a third
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: of the country doesn't know who Peer Polyev is at all.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I saw most recently some polling done about that. But
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that means that there's also an opportunity for him to
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: go introduce himself. When you look at the state of
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the Conservative Party and where they're positioning themselves before the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: next federal election, I wonder what your thoughts are about them.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Well, look, they are twenty points ahead. But there is
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: no reason in this day and age, with technology and
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: fundraising that the Liberal Party of Canada can't reduce that
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty point deficit. But to start down that path
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: to chipping off Conservative support, we need we need new leadership.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: And I want to be clear, it's just not about
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: new leadership if we simply select a new leader and
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: don't engage in genuine policy renewal and also renewal around
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: fundraising and technology, the Liberal Party of Canada are laggered
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: when compared to quality ever Conservatives on fundraising. They're out
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: fundraising US more than two to one. Our young Liberals,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: young Liberals of Canada, which have long been the foundation
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: of our party, have that organization has atrophied. It's been
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: it's been critical to Liberal success in the past. And technology,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: we haven't leveraged technology to the full extent. So, yes,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: leadership is part of the part of the puzzle and
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: the critical piece in my view, but we need to
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: engage in renewal across the board. And since that spending
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: lots in Toronto Saint Paul's exactly a month ago yesterday,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: I haven't seen anything. I haven't seen changes to the cabinet.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I haven't seen staff changes. I haven't seen a willingness
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: to look at new policy solutions. The Prime Minister has
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: more or less disappeared. We're now well into the dog
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: days of summer, and so as a grassroots Liberal who
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: wants our party to you know, remain forcing Canadian politics,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I am very, very concerned.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: You know, I talk with liberals fairly often. We've got
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: one elected down here in Windsor. I don't mean to
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: like to trot him out as like we've got one
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: down here, But what I hear when I talk to
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: liberals is that, look, we're doing a great job. The
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: policies that we have are really good. The issue is
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: is that people aren't aware of it. They frame it
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: it seems as a continual communication issue, and that if
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: they could just figure out the comms, everyone will line
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: up and start waving red flags again for them. I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's the communications. I don't know if
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: people are on board with a lot of the policies
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: or at least how they're being sold. And maybe that
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: does mean that the communications are lacking.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Look, I mean, the communications are always a piece of
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: the puzzle, but to frame it around the problem is
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: primarily communications is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation in
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: which we're in. A party would not be twenty points
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: behind for the better part of a year if it
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: was merely not it was merely a communications question. So
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: it's much more part reaching that and substantive than that.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: And again, there doesn't seem to be a willingness to
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: really be dispassionate and humble and acknowledge where the party
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: has made errors. We've seen that Doug Ford is a leader,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: for all his weaknesses, that's able to acknowledge when policy
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: decisions have run them up and walk them back. And
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: many people have mocked the sheer number of occasions where
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: he's completely changed his policy stances. But from a public
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: opinion point of view, it's pretty clear people appreciate that
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: that humble approach and we're not seeing that with this government.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: So I think we need to really look at our
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: policies and our approaches, and that begins with new leadership.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Tone comes from the top. Leadership style trickles downward and
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: you know, it's been a long time for the Prime
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Minister to be in power, quite frankly, and we sort
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: of it's just you reach a natural shelf life in
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: this country. And I guess my question is does the
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: party need to have a large renewal the way that
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: it did when Trudeau came into the leadership role of it.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: It does, and that process is not something that's going
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: to be accomplished overnight. But I think that's the process
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: that we need to kickstart now. We need to examine,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: you know, should we continue to have a free party
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: membership supporter class, or should a membership actually cost something
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: like the Conservative Party where it's fifteen dollars to join
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the party. We need to examine that. We need to
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: reinvigorate the young liberals. We need to reinvigorate our writing
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: associations that are largely not very active the grass roots
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: of the party. The leadership of our party must be
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: answerable to the grassroots. That's not the situation we find
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: ourselves in today, and I believe that's why the grass
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: roots of the party are adrift and don't feel engaged.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: And finally, I'd just like to add, if what's happened
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: in the US, if we can take anything from what
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: just happens in the south of the border, A change
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: in leadership can be invigorating, a change in leadership can
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: be a game changer. Look at what's just happened in
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: the US Kamala Harris. And it remains to be seen
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: whether she will in fact prevail and become president, but
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: in a four day period she has become essentially, for
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: all intents and purposes, the nominee and the party has
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: consolidated around here, and there's immense excitement among the establishment,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: among the grass roots. We're seeing the fundraising, we're seeing now,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: all the speculation around who will be your VP. It
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: makes for great TV, it makes for great water cooler talk,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and it's got Democrats engaged, and especially when they're facing
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the existential threat that I call Trump. So liberals are
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: not in a dissimilar situation. We're behind in the pools,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: we're adrift, and we're facing an opponent that is a
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: very talented communicator and that looks like he will form
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a massive majority government. And so again I would say
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: there's still time, and a change in leadership and a
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: change in approach could radically change our party. But we
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: have to start moving forward, and right now there's not.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Everyone seems asleep at the switch. So I'm hoping things
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: will maybe change come Labor Day. But man, oh man, like,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: we should be using this summer to recalibrate and get
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: ready and prepare for an election that's a year away,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: and I'm not seeing any evidence of that.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not looking like it. I saw a great
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: tweet from a I guess a former Biden HQ staffer.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Now it's a Harris HQ, of course, but the staffer said, look,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: going into work for the past three weeks was like
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: walking into a funeral every day, whereas walking into the
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris HQ, it's like being at a wedding with
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: an open bar. And you know, if your staff isn't
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: energized and excited and the volunteers aren't, you can't expect
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the voters to be either. So yeah, I say that
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: maybe if they're listening, they should take some of your advice.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Here last question for you, Andrew, and I presume that
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: you're going to be like the guests that don't answer questions,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: but I'll ask, who do you want to be liberal
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: leader if Trudeau were to step down?
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: You know what, To be honest, I haven't made a
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: decision on that. It's somewhat of a hypothetical. I will
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: say this. I will say this, I do believe it
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: needs to be someone from outside of the government caucus
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: because I think any minister in this government, for all
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: their merits and all their hard work, I don't want
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: to question that, will be too closely tied to Trudeau
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: and this government, and it will be too easy for
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: the media for you know, individuals like yourself and the
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: opposition to go after us. So we need to find
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: someone from outside who's a bit removed, who is a Liberal,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: but can come in and genuinely say, look, I wasn't
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: part of this government. I agree with a lot of
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: what was done, but here's where we went wrong and
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: here's my new vision. Will that, you know, catapult us
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: twenty points ahead, twenty points ahead to be tied with
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: the Conservatives. Probably not, but I think it will help.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: And so the two names that are being bandied about
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: so far are Mark Kearney, the former governor of the
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Bank of England and Canada, as well as Christy Clark,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the former BC Liberal Premier. I hope there'll be other
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: names come out of the woodwork, other prominent Canadians, whether
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: they be former premiers or business people that haven't been
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: affiliated with this government, that consider running for the leadership
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: of our party because we really need it. The future
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: of the federal Liberal Party hangs in the balance centrists.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: The Liberal Party needs to remain a centrist party to
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: guard against the polarization of our politics that we're seeing.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: And so, regardless of the outcome in the next election,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: if we don't form government, I want to see a
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: robust official opposition, centrist liberal party that can hold the
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Conservatives to account.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: It's a good answer. All note though, that you didn't
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: answer my question. I wanted to know who it was
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: you said you didn't choose. I'll give you fifty percent
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: on that. Hey, Andrew, I really appreciate it. You have
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: yourself the quote of the week here a caucus sleepwalking
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: to its death. Print that out and put it up
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: on the wall. It's a gold star. Thank you for
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: your time today, Sarah, I really appreciate it.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Thanks so much, John, take care.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Of you as well. Andrew Perez is a liberal strategist
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: and you can check him out at Perez Strategy. That
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: is his shop.