Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Ready For a Break | MLB & WNBA | 7/12/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Ready For a Break | MLB & WNBA | 7/12/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks. The black coffee on the felt. Man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me? No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: hold on, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports for Sunday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: July twelve. Not a good day on the show. Yesterday
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: probably should have been better. I have to make sure
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: this number is right, Like I said yesterday, I gotta
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: go back and look, man, I think this number is
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: right on this latest run which has not been good recently.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: We did get the wom with the under in Cleveland
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: and Miami again yesterday in baseball to start the day
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: off on the right foot, but everything was bad after that.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: In Seattle obviously did not get there loaded Gilbert.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: He was too hittable in the game, which not really
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: what I expected, and Seattle could not capitalize on Griffin
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Jacks had a number of walks in that game. Seattle
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: couldn't do anything about it, so that wasn't good. Argentina
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: they won, but it was not a win for us
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: on the show because it was a first ninety minute
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: play and they had the lead one to nothing and
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: they actually weren't playing that well at that point. But
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: I thought they were gonna do it even though Switzerland
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: tied the game. Switzerland got a red card, so they
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: were down in man. I'm like, yeah, Argentina is gonna
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: win this in regulation here, what's the red card happen.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: Argentina was obviously like they had the advantage throughout the
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: rest of that and then of course I knew exactly what.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Was gonna happen.
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: Though once it got around the ninety minute mark, I'm like,
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: oh my god, they're actually not gonna score here.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: It's gonna go.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Into extra time, and obviously with the man advantage, Argentina
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: clearly is gonna win an extra time.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: So my bracket pick is gonna be right.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: But I have Argentina losing to England in my bracket, which,
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: by the way, England is actually favored against them, very
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: slightly interesting. Yeah, I don't know, man, I don't like
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: that I went from five to one in the World
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: Cup to now seven and five. It's been a winning
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: World Cup and it should stay that way because they're
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: only three more games and I'm not gonna have a
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: plan and every single one if any of them.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: But still, yeah, that was Argentina.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: I think I would still say they were the right side,
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: even though the game was kind of close throughout a
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: lot of it until that red card happened. But even
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: still after that red card, I thought they should have
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: just done it anyway, But the refs are just handing
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: them the game, which was still like kind of part
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: of the handicap as well, So I don't know.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I got nothing else to say about it. Move on
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: to today.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have two baseball plays again. Don't love the
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: board that much in one of.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: These plays is one of those ones.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: It just seems way too obvious, But I think the
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: market agrees with this, so I'm doing it anyway. Hopefully
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: we can get both of these, and then I'm gonna
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: give out a WNBA play as well, where I was
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: very close to having two and one of them. The
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: market Reid is kind of scaring me on it. So
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have one, even though we're getting a little
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: bit worse of a number than we would have if
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: I got it at the open, But one WNBA play today.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: All right, baseball.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: This is the last day for a while for baseball,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: as we're gonna head into the All Star break.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Nothing tomorrow.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: Then the All Star Game is Tuesday, the home run Derby.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Actually it's the home run Derby tomorrow. I'm not even sure.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I gotta figure that out because a lot of times
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I talk about it on the show. World Cup is
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: also off today until Tuesday.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: World Cup.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: I believe the semifinals are Tuesday, Wednesday, and then the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: final presumably is gonna be like Friday, maybe Saturday, I
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: don't know, however they do it whatever, So coming down
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: the stretch there, baseball will be off until I believe
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: Thursday there's gonna be one baseball game.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe Wednesday there's one. I don't know. Baseball resumes like
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: at the end of the week.
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: I think actually Friday is really when baseball completely resumes.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: Anyway, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh is the early game here twelve
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: fifteen Eastern on Peacock Pittsburgh. They're on the version of
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: sweep here man because they swept the double header yesterday.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: They won each game by one run and they got
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: Paul Skeens on the mound here, which is gonna be
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: a bit interesting.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Cand Pittsburgh pull off the sweep.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, obviously they can with their best pitcher on the mound,
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: although I know they haven't really been winning behind them,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: but they did break that curse last time. Pittsburgh's bullpen
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: is going to be an issue, though they used their
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: entire bullpen basically yesterday they used seven guys because of
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: course there was a double header. Milwaukee used most of theirs.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: They used six guys out of their bullpen. Pittsburgh's at
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: a bullpen disadvantage though they use more guys and they're
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: not a good bullpen.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: They are ranked this by a Whip.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: They are twenty second is eighth, so Milwaukee's got the
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: bullpen advantage here. Pittsburgh does have a good offense, they're
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: number two, Milwaukee number ten. Pittsburgh is one of the
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: best home offenses as well. Robert Gasser going for Milwaukee,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: he's kind of hard to predict, really, he's been alright.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: Four point one five ERA, one point one to eight whip.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: That's not too bad.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: He's not quite as good on the road four point
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: seven to six roady array and going up against a
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: good offense here. He was going on the road in
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: his last start against Saint Louis, but Pittsburgh is a
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: different animal and a less pitcher friendly ballpark two. Pittsburgh
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: has some experience against him. They have three guys to
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: have faced him. They're two for six against them, with
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: one walk and no strikeouts, so really not a whole
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: lot going on there. No extra base hits either, makes
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: it hard to gauge. It's a small sample size. He's
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: got some unfamiliarity which might help him out a little bit,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: but he's obviously the lesser of these two pitchers against
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: Paul Ski, who is better than his three point five
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: eight ERA would suggest. One point four whip is good.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: Skeens has been good at home three point two home ray.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's just good. We know that he's good.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: He bounced back after a couple of rough outings, had
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: a pretty good outing last time out against Atlanta, and
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: maybe more importantly, finally got a win and his team
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: finally got a win behind him after I think Pittsburgh
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: lost like nine games in a row that he started,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: or something like that, might have been eight, whatever it was.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: It was crazy that they were losing all these games
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: with him on the mouth, because it's not like Pittsburgh
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: is a bad offense.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: Obviously the opposite is true.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: Very weird, but maybe you know that'll break the curse,
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: They'll be back on track. Skeens does have good numbers
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: against Milwaukee sixty four at bats, one eighty eight average,
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: five to seven y oh ps, allowed, twenty to five
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. You're getting a cheap price with Pittsburgh here,
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: although the price obviously goes up if you just want
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: to focus on the starting pitching alone. Full game, Pittsburgh's
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: minus won twenty five or so. But I think if
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: you want to play Pittsburgh in the first five, you're
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: probably gonna be paying like minus one fifty for it
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: because you're focusing on just their biggest advantage in the game,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: which is Skeens.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: The money is.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: Back in Milwaukee on the full game, sixty three percent
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: of tickets on Pittsburgh, fifty six percent of the cash
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: on Milwaukee. I mean, my read on this game was
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: actually kind of a first five leen on Pittsburgh again,
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: because I do think that's a big edge Skeens.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Over Gasser in the first five.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh might lose the game late, but I do think
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: that they will be ahead at the end of five.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: So I was thinking that might be the way to
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: lean here, Pittsburgh first five. But you gotta lay a
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: half run with that if you do that, because that's
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the way to get the price down. But that means
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: they need to be winning after five. It's maybe a
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: little bit dangerous Gasser. I mean, he could pitch well here.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: He's very unfamiliar to Pittsburgh. So a first five under
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: I guess it is possibly on the table in this game. Obviously,
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't do it full game because the Bullpens are
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: just trashed and the money is playing the over the
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: full game total of eight. There, it's a game I'm
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: not doing anything with. That's a pass Kansas City and Baltimore.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Baltimore is also on the version of a sweep, so
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: I do talk about this just like with Milwaukee, although
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee's a better team than Kansas City obviously, but teams
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: that are trying to avoid the sweep usually get more motivated.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, you really don't want to go into the
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: All Star Break on a bad note. Although I think
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: if you do that coming out of the All Star Break,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: it'll actually be better because that break can help, like,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: you know, end that losing momentum. I think if you
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: finally win one game going into the break, it's not
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: really a bad thing either. But yeah, just generally, I
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: think these teams are going to try to try a
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: little bit harder to win if they're on the version
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: of getting swept. I don't know if we really want
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: to try to back Kansas City here though. I mean,
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: if you do, you can't really involve their bullpen, even
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: though there's one guy out of the bull yesterday. They
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: are not a good bullpen. Baltimore was three Kansas City.
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: They're at a bullpen disadvantage against basically everybody. They're the
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: worst ranked bullpen in baseball. Baltimore is thirteenth. They're not great,
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: but they're obviously better than Kansas City. Both offenses are
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: kind of in the mid range. Baltimore sixteenth, Kansas City nineteenth.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: Arranged by ops. Seth Lugo is pitching for Kansas City.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty mediocre man four point five six ERA,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: one point four to three whip is definitely not good.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road five point four
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: to eight.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Roady Ra.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: Hasn't really been good in some of these recent outings
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: at the HEAST kind of been alternating good and.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Bad for the last few outings.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: He was bad in his last outing, which was on
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: the road against the Mets. Probably not a good sign
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: because obviously the Mets are not a good offense. So
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: I don't really think he's in very good form right now,
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: although his strikeout walk ratio has been all right over
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: those last couple of games. His numbers against Baltimore are
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: actually really good. In fifty nine at bats, one oh
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: two average allowed, three eighty eight ohps, seventeen to six
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, those numbers are good enough that I
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: kind of lean more towards Lugo actually pitching well here.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: He's gonna be going up against Shane Boz for Baltimore.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: He's pretty mediocre as well, although probably better than Lugo.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's younger, has more upside at least four
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: point two to one ERA one point three.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: To seven whip is not really that good.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: He's a little bit better at home, a four point
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: one to four home ral, though opponent of batting average
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: at home is a lot worse.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: So I don't even know if we should.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Really even say that he's better at home, just his
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: era is slightly better. His walk rate's been bad over
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: his last two starts. Seven walks in thirteen innings. Can't
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: do that, man, you gotta cut that down. Even though
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: he only allowed five runs, I think he got a
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: little bit lucky there had nine strikeouts, which wasn't really
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: that good. He's got a mediocre hit rate here, a
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: pretty bad walk rate is walk rate is high, strike
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: out rate is not too high either.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Overall, yeah, not great.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: From Boz, but his numbers against Kansas City are actually
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: pretty good in forty at bats, two hundred batting every
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: six thirty eight ohps six to two strike out walk ratio,
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: and Kansas City also does not hit well on the
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: road typically, So this game, to me, I think this
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: might be a first five under the total in the
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: full games.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Nine and a half.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: And you kind of have to do it that way
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: because neither starting pitcher is really that good. The bullpens
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: are not very good, so it kind of makes sense
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: the total has to be that high, and it's an
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: offensive ballpark for the most part. But the money is
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: back in the under sixty three percent of tickets eighty
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: seven percent of the cash, and I agree with that
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: as well. I think that is the way that I
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: would look at this game. But again I would go
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: first five under the total. Probably you're looking at about
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: a five and a half probably on that, which is
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: a reasonable number, more than reasonable. Eighty percent of the tickets,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on Baltimore, So Baltimore's public
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: with a little bit more of the money on them,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: But I don't know they're too public for my taste.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Based on what that discrepancy is between those two numbers,
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: minus one forty eight or so is the price on
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Baltimore there. I mean, they basically have to be a
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: favorite like that because Kansas City, you just can't have
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: them as a favorite at all. They need to be
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: an underdog in most cases. And as far as the
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: overall on numbers here for Lugo, Lugo's got a pretty
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: high hit rate, which is not good. His walk rate's fine,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: his strike out rate is pretty low though so he
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: doesn't really blow guys away. Boz is the better strikeout pitcher,
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: and as far as the other guys that I talked
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: about in that other matchup.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Gas are just so you know.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's got a low hit rate, a reasonable
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: walk rate, and his strikeout rate is okay as well.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I think he's a mediocre pitcher. Skeins.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I don't even really think we have to go into him.
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, we know that all of his numbers are good.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Low hit rate, low walk rate, strikeout rate, all of
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: that is still there. Yankees at Washington. Yankees are on
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: the verge of sweep Washington. They've been competitive in the series.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Washington had the lead in the ninth inning in the
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: first game. I don't know exactly how the game played out.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: Yesterday they lost both games by two runs.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Washington.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: They're not a good team at home though, they lose
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: a lot of home games, and their bullpen's not good.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: These five guys out of a bullpen yesterday as well,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: Yankees only used three. The Yankees have a big bullpen
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: edge here. They ranked third in bullpen, but they have
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: the best bullpen Erray right now. Washington twenty sixth, really bad,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: one of the worst bullpens. Yankees are sixth in offense,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: tied with the Marlins right now in Washington number three,
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: so both offense is obviously capable here.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Yankees are going with Will Warren, so they're going.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: With a pitcher who's at least vulnerable if you're gonna
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: be looking towards Washington here to try to avoid the sweep.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: Warren a four point one five ERA, but his whip
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: is one point three to seven, which is not too good.
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: He's a bit worse on the road four point five roadyr.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty mediocre recently on not great stuff here.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: Two of his last three starts haven't been very good,
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: and those were his road starts against Boston and Tampa Bay,
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: and Washington is a better offense than both of those teams.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: He's got a high hit rate on the season, his
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: walk rate is okay, strikeout rate is fairly high, so
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: he's not all bad, but you know, I mean, pretty
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: mediocre stuff here. But he does have an unfamiliarity edge,
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: so Washington might struggle against him just because they haven't
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: really seen him.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Only Curtis Mead.
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: Has ever faced him. He's zero for five with a strikeout.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: So do with that info what you want to do, Kde.
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: Cavali is going to be coming back from suspension after
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: his brawl with the Red Sox. He got suspended, he
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: appealed it, he got it knocked down to five games.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: Which the suspensions on starting pitchers are just stupid, man,
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: because like if you're suspended for five games, what does
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: that even mean as a start pitcher? Like you get
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: one start, move back one day or something. Oh big deal, Cavali.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: I mean he's young. Still, he's got some talent here.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: Three point eight to eighty rays whip is not that
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: good though, one point three to eight.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: At home four point oh one home of the Ray.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: But I still think he's one of the better Washington pitchers.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good recently. His month of June was
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: actually quite good, Like across the board, wasn't really good
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: last time out against Pittsburgh.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: Good offense, although obviously so is the Yankees. Yankee is
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: not quite as good on the road though.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Cavali. His main problem is hit ability.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: He's actually been too hittable, his hit rates too high,
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is okay. His strike out rate is
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: pretty high, so he does have the ability to fool
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: major league hitters, which is a good sign.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And then his strikeout rate is high.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: His numbers against the Yankees, I'm pretty sure they're minimal.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Let me see, Yankees have fifteen at bats agains him.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: The Yankees have apps hammered him though, for sixty seven
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: average against him sixteen sixty three ops, three home.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: Runs against them from three different batters. Yeah, so that
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: is not good. Uh, the Yankees have drilled him when
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: they've seen him.
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: But Cavali is better now than he has been in
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: the past, and I don't think the Yankees have faced
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: him this year. So Cavali, maybe you can put less
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: weight into those numbers a little bit there.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: They still worrying me quite a bit though.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: The money I believe is actually back in Washington here
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: Yankees have ninety or sixty five percent of tickets on
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: them excuse me, eighty six percent of the money on Washington.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: So pros versus Joe split there.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: In a way, it looks too easy to play the Yankees,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: Like you're basically getting a pick on price on this,
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: and the public's gonna come in.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: And play the Yankees because they're the Yankees. Money back
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: in Washington.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: I still can't do it. With Cavally's matchup numbers. They're
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: just so bad that there might be something to that. Yeah,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: I mean it's a stay away from me. I mean
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: the over might be a way to look at this game.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: The totals at nine sixty three percent of tickets ninety
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: five percent of the cash on the over. I mean
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: you're looking at two pictures that might be vulnerable here.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: One of the bullpen's is really bad, Washington's obviously, so
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: I think there were more indicators towards an over in
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: that game. That might be the I don't want to
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: stay safer, but maybe the play that has a better
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: chance of getting there than anything else in that game.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: The side is kind of hard to figure out in
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: that one of the Washington has the motivation to try
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweep, and you could make the argument
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: maybe the Cavali is the better pittroll that he gave
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: you play Washington in that game at all. I think
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: you have to limit it to the first five. I
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: just don't think you get back that bullpen at all.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox, they're on the version of sweep of
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: the Mets. Red Sox went with kind of a bullpen
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: game yesterday, though they had Eduardo whatever the hell his
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: name was on the mound yesterday, but he went like
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: three and two thirds innings or something. He hadn't allowed
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: to hit into the fourth inning and then he allowed
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: a hit and they took him out. Red Sox bullpen
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: was good as usual. They've been a good bullpen.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: They didn't use too many guys.
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: They use three guys yesterday the Mets used four. The
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: Red Sox do have a bullpen advantage here.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: They're number four. They have the third.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Best Bullpenny Ray. Mets have fallen off a bit. They're
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: number nine, but they're Eray is above four now, which
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: is not great, so they're trending more towards being a
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: mediocre bullpen here. Both teams have not been good offensively.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are twenty second, tied with the reds
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: The Mets are twenty eighth, so the Red Sox have
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: a little bit of an edge there too, and they've
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: been a little bit better on the road. The Red
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: Sox have the more established starting pitcher on the mound
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: as well, with Peyton Tolly uh three point one four
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: ERA one point seven whip pretty good. He's been a
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: little bit better on the road as well. Two point
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: eight to seven Roady Ray. His numbers are good, man.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: He's coming off a good start over the White it
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: was a nice bounce back after he wasn't good against Washington.
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: But he's been really good in almost all of his
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: starts this year. Really low hit rate, his walk rate
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: is pretty low. Strikeout rate is right around one per inning,
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: which is pretty good. Against the Mets, they only have
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: one guy who's faced him, Zack Short is zero for two,
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: often with a strikeout, so totally has the unfamiliarity edge
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: here as well. He should pitch well here. Zach Thornton
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: is going for the Mets. This guy is a real
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: mystery man. He's a really young lefty. Nobody has really
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: seen this guy before him. He's a tall, lanky lefty,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: so that probably does indicate that he doesn't throw particularly hard,
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: which I think. I looked at his stat cast and
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: I believe that's true. I think he throws in like
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: the load to mid nineties. But he has six different
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: pitches that he throws, so he mixes up his pitches
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: to try to keep batters off balance. I think he
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: mostly throws like a fastball mix though, like between a
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: four seamer cutter a sinker.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: He does stuff like that.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: His numbers are okay so far, but he's only made
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: two starts a four point three to five VRA one
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: point one to six whip.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: It's hard to gauge.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: He was better in his home start one point five
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: home ra. Like I said, he's made two starts. One
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: was on the road against Washington. He wasn't great in
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: that one, but Washington's a difficult offense to face. He
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: then was at home against Philly. Philly, I mean, they're
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: not a great offense on the road, and he really
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: pitched well in that start.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: And he was efficient too, So he's trending in the
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: right direction.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: Obviously, the Red Sox have never faced him before, so
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: I think he could possibly pitch well here as well.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit questionable.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I think the money is actually backing the Mets here though,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: so the money is backing Thornton here. I think the
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: under might be the way to look at this game.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: Let me see here, the money is kind of agreeing
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: with that. Sixty percent of tickets on the over fifty
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: six percent of the cash on the over total at
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: eight and a half. He could go full game on that,
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: or he could go first. I mean, the Mets bullpen
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: not necessarily one that you need to avoid, so I
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: think maybe a full game under makes the most sense
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: to me here.
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are a road favorite here.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: At minus one twenty, which is kind of interesting because
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: the Mets, I think, have been favored in the other
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: games in the series. The money is backing the Mets
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: probably for that reason. Red Sox are public ninety one
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets on them eighty four percent of
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: the cash so Red Sox, the market read doesn't.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Look good for them.
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: They're public with less of the money on them, which
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: the argument is really just I think that the price
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: tag is kind of too high on the Red Sox.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: Of the totally is the more established pitcher though, and
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox have the better bullpen, so I wouldn't
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: really want to risk it with the Mets, but I
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: would be willing to say that the under is the
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: best way to play that game. I think both offenses
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: might not do a ton in that one, so that
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: that would be the way I would look in that one.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Dirty sock. What's up? Yes, thanks for hanging out.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: I repeat myself on the show all the time, and
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: you know my sinuses are a mess again. It's gonna
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: be a much needed break during the All Star break.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Baseball is it's.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: The most difficult sport to talk about on the show.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: There's just way too much involved in talking about it.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: Cubs and Reds this is a split series right now,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: so both teams are gonna show up here.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: The Cubs won the game yesterday.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: The Cubs use five relief pitchers, but the Reds have
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: the worst bullpen. They also use five relief pitchers. There's
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: a bullpen advantage for the Cubs. Their bullpen has not
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: been good recently though. They've dropped all the way to
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: fourteenth their eras above four that's not great. The Reds
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: still worse at twenty seventh. Maybe two bullpens that you
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: want to avoid here. The Cubs have hit pretty well
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: their fifth Reds are tied with the Red Sox twenty second.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Not great.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: Cubs are going with Matthew Boyd here, I think is
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: the more talented of these two pitchers.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: He's been okay, but small sample size. This year.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: He's been dealing with injuries. Four point three to one ERA, Yeah,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: one point three to one whip. That's not horrible. He's
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: been pretty good on the road A three point seven
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: Roady Ray on the show.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: I gave out a play backing.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: Him in his last start against Baltimore, and he pitched
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: really well in that one on the road.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: We got the win in that one. Boyd.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, he seems to be moving in the right direction.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good since coming back from injury. Could
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: sign that he was able to do to that against
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: Baltimore because his other two starts are against the Mets
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: in San Diego, so we didn't really know what he
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: was gonna do against a better offense like Baltimore, but
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: he did pretty well there. Going up against the Reds,
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: his numbers are decent against them in forty two at
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: bats to sixty two average, six seventy four oh ps,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: eleven to five strikeout walk ratio. That ratio is not
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: very good, but the rest of those numbers are pretty good,
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: so I.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Think he can al right here. Andrew Abbot is pitching
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: for Cincinnati.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: I guess before I forget Matthew Boyd, just looking at
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: his overall numbers here It's a small sample, but he's
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: been a little.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: Bit too hittable.
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is okay and his strike out rate
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: is actually high, so that's a good sign for Boyd
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: that he does still have his strikeout of building, so
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: that kind of tells you that the injury hasn't really
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: like totally destroyed his stuff. Andrew Abbot has been walking
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: too many guys.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: He's pitching for the Reds. Three point nine two era
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: is not too bad. He's been pretty good throughout his career,
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: but he's walking way too many guys this year. One
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: point four to one whip that is not good. He
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: is worse at home to four point seven to two
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: homey Ray. It is a hit or friendly ballpark. He
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: bitched really well last time out against Philadelphia in this ballpark,
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: he's been struggling with the walks, though generally that start
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: he didn't, but a lot of his recent starts he's
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: got a lot of walks here. He's got a reasonably
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: little hit rate here. His strike up rates not high,
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: but he's not really a strike up pitcher. But his
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: walk rate clearly is the main problem with him. He's
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: got to do something about that. Numbers against the Cubs,
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: though he has been good in one hundred and six
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: at bats one eighty nine average, allowed six on one ops,
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: but again, too many walks here.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Nineteen strike outs fifteen walks. That is a horrible ratio.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: Not really a high strikeout rate, but that walk rate
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: is too high. So what do we do with this game?
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, man, I don't know how
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: much you want to trust either of these pitchers here.
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: You know, like looking at the starting pitching matchup, it
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: felt like the Cubs had the advantage there. But the
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: money's backing the Reds seventy percent of the tickets on
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: Boyd or on the Cubs, I should say, ninety four
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Cincinnati. So the money's backing
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: the Reds. The Cubs are road favored and minus one thirty.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: I think it might just be because the professionals just
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: they just they love to hammer the home underdogs. Dude,
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. I mean I want more
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: than just that. So I don't know, man. I mean,
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: I think the Clubs are the better team. I think
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: they have the better starter and the better bullpen here,
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: so I would kind of lean that way. But both
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: pictures do have good matchup numbers, so like a first
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: five under isn't really out of the question here, although
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: oddsmakers have put a high total on this at nine
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: and a half, and that kind of concerns me about
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: playing these early unders. But the money is back in
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: the under. It looks like sixty percent of ticket seventy
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the under.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I could see the argument for it. I don't really
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: want to do it.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: I don't want to trust these pictures enough to do that,
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: but based on the matchup numbers and the way the
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: market is looking, there is an argument for a first
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: five under in that one, but I would probably avoid
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: both bullpens there. In that case, you definitely want to
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: avoid the Reds bullpen. With whatever you do Cleveland and Miami,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: I will not be giving out an under in this one.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: We've got the underwrit in both games in the series
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: so far. Miami is trying to avoid a sweet pier.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: So Miami, after they were hot and they had a
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: long streak, they lost the first game of the series.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: They got a little bit derailed, I think, and I
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: talked about how when you lose a win streak sometimes
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: it hangs you over into the next game, and that
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: may have happened there. Miami's offense has fallen off a
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: cliff here. Like I talked about, I thought Miami's offense
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: was overperforming because they had really really hit her friendly
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: venues during their road trip. Now they're back at home,
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: you know, facing some decent pitching here in a pitcher
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: friendly park, and they have not been able to hit
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: in this series. They might be able to get a
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: little bit more offense going in this one.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe not.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: Though Miami's two relief pitchers yesterday Cleveland I used three.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: These are both decent bullpens. Here, Miami is ranked higher.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: Miami is still ranked number two in bullpenal, though I
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: don't think they're that good. Their era is not really
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: that good. I think they're like a top ten bullpen.
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: I would say Cleveland is ranked seventeenth, but they're not
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: that much worse than Miami's. I think it's somewhat close there.
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: Miami is the slightly better bullpen in my opinion. Miami
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: is number six in offense, but again I think that's
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: overrating their offense quite a bit. Cleveland is twenty ninth.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: They are legitimately pretty bad offensively. With all these injuries
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: they have going on. This is not a very good
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup this time. In this one, Joey Cantillo is
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: pitching for Cleveland. He's got some decent stuff again. His
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: problem is the walks. That's the case with a lot
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: of guys. Three point six six e RA one point
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: three to nine whip is not good though. He's been
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: a little bit worse on the road, a three point
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: eight six roady RA. And he looks like he's pitching
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: okay recently, but his walk rate in his last two
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: starts was really elevated.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: So he was pitching.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: Pretty well for a while there in June and then
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: those last two starts worrying me man like, it looks
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: like his command is way off again with those walk numbers.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: There, eight walks over the last ten innings. That's not good.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: He does have a pretty low hit rate on the season.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is way too high, Like I said,
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: his strike out rate is right at one per inning,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: which is fine. Miami has never seen him before, so
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: he might be able to pitch well here because he
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: has the unfamiliarity edge that I always talk about. Usually
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: that goes to the pitcher. If the pitcher is capable.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: The hitters kind of struggle to figure him out if
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: they haven't seen him before, so he does have that advantage.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: Miami is going with Tyler Phillips, which is kind of
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: a pseudo bullpen game, but they've basically been kind of
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: unleashing him and letting.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: Him go like almost a starter's workload.
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: He's been all right, but his whip indicates that his
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: ERA is not really what he is. Three point two
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: eighty RA one point three to six whip is a
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: bit too high. Though he's been really good at home
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: one point zero three home the RA, so he might
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: pitch well here. His overall numbers, I mean, he looks
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: like he's been pitching pretty well because he hasn't allowed
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: that many runs. Some of that was his bullpen appearances
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: early in the season.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Though.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: He does still have a low hit ray, but his
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: walk rate is bad. His walk rate is too high.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is really low. So he's not a
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: guy that comes in and fools bad or is like
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: kN TiO is the starting pitcher that has the higher
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: ceiling here, like he's actually the better pitcher here over Phillips. Phillips, Yeah,
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: doesn't really fool guys walk too many guys. Both pitchers
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: walk too many guys. Phillips, though, does have a little
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: bit of experience against Cleveland. They have fifteen of bats
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: against them, they only have a two hundred average and
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: four ninety four ohps and no extra race hits against
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: him four to two strikeout walk ratio, so he might
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: pitch okay here, I mean looking at all that, I mean,
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: this could be another under I mean, this is not
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: making the cut for me obviously, but I mean maybe
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: that is the way to look at this game. And
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, maybe you look at Miami because
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: they're one of those teams trying to avoid a sweep.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: They're a home team trying to avoid a sweep. So
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: a couple of teams in that situation, Washington, the Mets, Miami,
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: those teams tend to step up their game and they.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: Usually show up to try to avoid the sweep. I
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: won't be on any of it. But the money is
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: back in Miami.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: Little bit here fifty three tickets fit the eight percent
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them right around to pick them
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: price there, I don't really want to do it. I mean,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: I think Cantillo is probably the better pitcher there. Miami's
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: in the better spot to avoid the sweep, though, and
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: they do have some advantages. I mean, they probably have
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen still, and they have the better offense.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: Total is low at seven and a half, so the
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: oddsmakers are kind of telling you they think it's gonna
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: be a low scoring game again. But the money is
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: coming in on the over pretty strongly in that one,
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: although I still think there are more indicators towards an
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: under than an over in that game, so I would
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: lean slightly under there, but.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: I can't do it not in that one. Man, We'll
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: leave it alone.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: But we did well with that series with two wins
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: on the under, so I'm satisfied with that. My read
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: on that series has been pretty good. Next game up
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: is a play for me. Like I said, this seems
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: way too obvious, but I just don't see another way
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: that this is gonna go. We're gonna take the under
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: in Philadelphia Detroit here. I think everything lines up pretty
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: well here, except I know I'm recommending going full game here,
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: which means you're back in the bullpens, and Philly's bullpen
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: has not been good recently. But the bullpens are pretty
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: rested here, and they're not so bad that I'm like,
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: we got to avoid them here, Like I think Philadelphia
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: is gonna get a little bit better again out of
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: the bullpen at some point here, Philadelphia, they're really rested here.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: These two guys.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Yesterday, granted one of them was their closer, Duran, but
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: he only threw eight pitches, so theoretically he could pitch
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: again here if they really wanted him.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: To Detroit.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen's in pretty good shape here. They use three
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but they did use
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: their clothes or Jansen, So you know, I don't know
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: should I be rethinking this, I don't know, because I
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: don't really want to go under in the first five
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: at a three and a half either though, like usually
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: I want to look for like a four and at
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: least you're getting a key number seven here. And the
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: good thing about this is you have two elite pitchers
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: pitching that could definitely maintain their stuff through you know,
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: longer than five innings, you know what I mean.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: So that's also what I'm banking on here, is that.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: These starting pitchers are gonna get you at least like
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: six solid innings here. I would hope looking at the bullpens,
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: Detroit's wulpen has been all right. They're at fifteenth. They're
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: not bad Philadelphia. I get that they're not great at
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: twenty first, they're ei ras basically in the mid fours,
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: but they're not so bad that I'm like, we have
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: to just completely discount them. These offenses have not been
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: very good Philadelphia twenty four. Then we know that they
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: struggle on the road, so I'm willing to fade their
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: offense here.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: Detroit.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: They're a mediocre offense at seventeenth, and they're better at home.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: I will admit that, obviously, but I don't see them
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: doing a ton here against Zach Wheeler.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Wheeler.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Wheeler might even be a little bit extra motivated here
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: because if you saw what happened with the All Star stuff,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys are like dropping out of the
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: All Star Game. With the All Star Game is just
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: a total sham, dude, Like it's just based on voting preferences.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: The whole thing is bullshit. It's totally stupid.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: And then certain guys get named to the All Star
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: team and they will either be injured or not play
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: in the All Star Game. And then other guys have
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: to be selected, and that's what happened with Wheeler is
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: he was selected as an alternate because some I forget
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: who it was, one of the pitchers dropped out in
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: the National League, and then Wheeler was given an invitation,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: and because he wasn't initially given an invitation, Wheeler rejected it.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: He turned it down, like he said that it was
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: what's what's the word that he that I'm looking for?
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: I forget what he said something he said that it
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: was disrespectful. I think that he wasn't initially named to
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: the All Star Game, and in my opinion, the reason
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: that he wasn't is because he was hurt at the
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: start of the year, so he doesn't have as many
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: innings as some of these other guys. Although granted he's
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: pitched for a while now, so I think he might
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: be extra motivated here to prove something, you know what
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, because he was disrespected by the All Star
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: Committee with the fact that they're like, hey, now that
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: somebody dropped out, now will name it to the All
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: Star Game? And he said, Nope, I'm not doing it.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: He's been an All Star in the past, obviously, he's
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: been around for a while. Wheeler has been really good
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: on the road one point nine to three ROADIRA.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: His overall numbers.
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: Are really good obviously, two point two to eighty RA
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: point nine to one whip Philadelphia has won five games
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: in a row that he started. He's been on fire
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: in his last two starts, with twenty four strikeouts and one.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Walk in eleven to two. Yeah, that's pretty good. Although
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: he allowed thirteen hits.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: He was actually way too hittable against Pittsburgh. I don't
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: know exactly what went on in that game, even though
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: he struck out a ton of guys in that one,
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: but he was back to normal on his last start.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: He destroyed Cincinnati in his last start, and Detroit is
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: obviously not as good as Pittsburgh offensively, so I expect
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: Wheeler is going to do well here. He's got good
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: numbers against Detroit thirty one at bats.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: They do have two home runs off.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: Him, but they have fifteen strikeouts in one walk, so
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: half of their bats have resulted in strikeouts. One sixty
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: one batting average five forty two oh ps. Those are
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: good numbers really across the board. That is a really
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate as well. I think Wheeler does well
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: here man, And obviously his overall numbers.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: Are really good. He just picked up basically where he
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: left off.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate, all the things that you look for. And
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: we're also going to back Tark Schooball on the other
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: side here.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Who's pitching well as well?
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: People, Oh Schooble, he's not as good anymore now that
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: he's coming back from injury.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, whatever, man.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Now he's got a three point oh sixty RAS whip
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: his point nine to five. If you're whip is below one, yeah,
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: you're you're basically in the elite category.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: He's been not as good at home. I'll admit that
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: three point nine to nine e RA. But whatever, man,
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's still an ace pitcher. He's had fewer
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: home innings this year, his opponent batting average at home
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: is still really low, So I don't really put much
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: stock into this. He hasn't a lot more than four
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: and runs in any of his starts this season. He's
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: had nine strikeouts apiece in each of his last three outings,
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: which were two games against the Yankees and one.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Against the A's.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: So yeah, he's throwing, you know, against some really good
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: offenses there. Philadelphia's offense is not as good as any
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: of those offenses, So yeah, he should have a little
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: bit of an easier time in this one, even though
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: he wasn't even bad in any of those starts. He's
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. Yeah,
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: his stuff is obviously still here if he's striking out
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: guys at the rate that he is over the last
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: few games. Again, I think these injuries are always overstated, man,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. And people, oh, Detroit's gonna
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: trade school bawl. No, I don't think they are, because
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: they can still win the division right now.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: They got school back, they got mis back, they're starting.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: Rotation isn't really that bad right now, and school ball
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: has good numbers against Philly.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: You probably guess that.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Thirty five at bats, they only have two extra base hits,
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: which are not home runs.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: They're both doubles.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Eleven strikeouts, one walk again, a high strikeout rate, good
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: command numbers one seventy one average four to twenty three.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: Oh ps, yeah, I have to do it man. Again,
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: it looks too obvious. So the money's back in the
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: under with me here, but right on that key number seven,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: fifty nine percent of the tickets, seventy nine percent of
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under This game immediately looked like
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: an under to me, and all the numbers look like
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: they back it up to me. These are two elite
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: pitchers and they got good, good matchup numbers here. These
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: offenses are not that potent either, So let's just do it.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Hopefully Philly is you know, hopefully.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: The bullpens can maintain this thing in the later innings.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: But yeah, let's do it under seven, and that one
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: is the play. I'm gonna be pissed if the first
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: five wins and this doesn't, by the way, but again,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: I'm banking on these pitchers going more than five innings
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: into this game. I think it's highly likely they both will.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: The money's back in Philly for whatever that's worth. Fifty
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: four percent of tickets, sixty nine percent of the cash
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: on Philly. They're an underdog, and you know, I mean,
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: Wheeler is an underdog.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Maybe he feels disrespected about that too.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, I understand why Schooble has to be favored
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: at about minus one twenty. Detroit's good at home, but
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: You're almost never gonna get Wheeler as an underdog like that,
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: and this is such a close matchup, maybe it makes
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: sense to lean Philly a little bit on the side here.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't want their bullpen, though, to Detroit's bullpen is better.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: So I think if you're gonna play Philly, I think
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: you should limit it to the first five and just
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: hope that it's a really low scoring pitching duel. But
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: of course I'm playing on it being a low scoring
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: game anyway by playing the under and I believe that
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: is the way to play this.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Both teams, by the way.
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: Have won one game in that series, so talking about
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: the side, both teams are probably gonna show up to
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: try to win that series today. So that's that play, Kyle.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: What's up I thinks for hanging out? Next game is
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: where was I at Seattle and Tampa Bay? I don't
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: even want to talk about this series. Tampa Bay is
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: on the verge of a sweep, so Seattle may show
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: up to try to avoid the sweep.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: On the surface, it does look like Seattle does have
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: a starting pitching edge here, but I don't know. When
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: you dig into it a little bit, I think it's close.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: Seattle used two relief pitchers. I do think their bullpen
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: is better. Tampa Bay used three yesterday. Seattle, their bullpen isn't.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: Ranked that high at a sixteenth, but they still have
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: a good bullpenny array. I still think they're like a
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: top several bullpen. Tampa Bay is ranked seventh, but their
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: e ray is the worst of the two. I don't
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: think they're quite that good. I think they're more of
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: a mid tier bullpen. So I would swap them in.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: The rankings basically, even though I know maybe I'm putting
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: too much weight onto the ras. But Tampa Bay's ninth
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: in offense. I'll give them that. They have the better
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: offense here. Seattle's ranked twenty seventh, but I don't think
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: the gap between those offens is really that big. Tampa
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: Bay has been really good at home, though, so that's
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: somebody to keep in mind. I tried to fade that yesterday.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: It did not work out well. Tampa Bay has been
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: really good at home. Emerson Handcock is picturing for Seattle.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: He's been good Seattle, you know, I mean, they had
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: one of their best pitchers on the mound yesterday, though,
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: with Gilbert and he wasn't good enough. Hancock three point
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: two to three e Ray, one point h one whip.
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse on the road, three
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: point five to seven road Ray still pretty good. I mean, obviously,
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: Seattle's ballpark is very pitcher friendly. Hancock's been, you know,
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: pretty good man. He's coming off a seven innu shutout
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: of Toronto. That's pretty good. Obviously, facing a Tampa here
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: will be a bit more difficult than Toronto. Though he's
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: got a low hit rate on the season, low walk right,
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rates pretty decent.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, his numbers across the board look pretty good here.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Against Tampa Bay not so much. They only have eight
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: at bats.
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: Against him, but they're six forad off him, So with
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: no strikeouts, no walks, they have a seven to fifty
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: average and sixteen to twenty.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Five ohps against them. So it's a small sample.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: They only have five hitters who have faced them, but
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: they've they've done well against them, although again it's such
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: a small sample. I don't know really how much weight
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: you should put into that, because Hancock is better now
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: than he has been in the past, and I don't
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: think Tampa's faced him this year, so Hancock may very
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: well pitch better here.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Ian Seymour is pitching for Tampa Bay.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: He's like a converted reliever, but he's been pitching pretty well.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point one to one ERA one
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: point oh eight whip. Tampa continues to get a lot
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: out of these starting pitchers that nobody even knows who
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: the hell they are. He's been good at home, three
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: point oh five home the Ray. He's been really hard
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: to get to at home. He had twelve strikeouts last
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: time out against the Yankees. He's got a twenty to
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: one strikeout walk ratio this month in eleven and a
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: third innings. That is a really high strikeout rate. And
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: the start before that was a shutout for six and
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: two thirds. Actually it was a no hitter for six
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: and two thirds against Kansas City. Yeah, that's some pretty
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: good stuff right there. He's pitching well.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Man. He's got a low hit rate, his walk.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Rate is a little high, strike out rate is high.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: So he is fooling batters, striking them out at a
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: big rate.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Here. I don't really want to fade him here man.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: Seattle only has four at bats against, and they have
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: six hitters who have base them. They have two walks,
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: two strikeouts, one extra base hit, a double from nailor
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: two fifty average one thousand oh ps.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Obviously you can do that math.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: It's a difficult read in this game, Man, Tampa Bay
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: looks like you could argue they do actually have a
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: starting pitching advantage here. I think Seattle has the motivational
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: and the bullpen advantage and the money. He's back in
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: Seattle here seventy four percent of tickets on Tampa Bay.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: They're at minus one forty or so. So again, I
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: think it's a s situation where the professional money is
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: just like, yeah, you know, like this is a close
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: enough matchup that I don't think Tampa should be favored
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: this heavily fifty percent of the cash on Seattle. The
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: money is strongly back in the over seven and a
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: half here.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I see that. Man, I think.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: There are more indicators for an under than an over
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: in this one. You know, I don't really love it.
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: I don't love the game. It's a difficult game for
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: me to figure out. Man, maybe a first five under
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: with these starting pitchers, they might both do well here.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Bullpens maybe a little bit more questionable. Although I think
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: you could go full game and get under the seven
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: and a half. I wouldn't really disagree with the under
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: in that one. The side for me is actually more
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: difficult to really get a grasp on.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: But that is that is a game that I don't
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: want to touch obviously.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: Anaheim in Minnesota, I thought I might be coming in
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: with an under with an over excuse me in this
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: series somewhere. Luckily I have not done that because I
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: think both games have gone under and this game looks
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: like it might not go over either, so I'm not
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: gonna be doing that. At least I don't have to
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: play on this game at all. But these are both
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: bad bullpens though. Minnesota us three relief pitchers yesterday Anaheim
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: or four. Actually, Anaheim used two. Minnesota is one of
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: the worst bullpens in baseball. The rank second worst right
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: now twenty ninth. Anaheim is not much better at twenty fourth,
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: So yeah, these are bullpens you want to fade or avoid.
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: Minnesota has been good offensively, they're eighth right now, and
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: they do hit pretty well at home. Anaheim is twenty first,
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: so that they actually hit better on the road, which
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: is another reason why I was thinking this series might
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: have some overs in it, but I don't want to
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: do that. But this starting pitching matchup, Jose Soriano is
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: pitching for Anaheim. He's a decent pitcher, and we know
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: the one thing we know about him is he's better
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: on the road. Three point four ERA overall, one point
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: two eight whip that's not too bad. Two point nine
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: to one road e RA. Again, he's good on the road.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: He bounced back. His last couple starts are both pretty good,
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: and they were both on the road, but they were
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: in pitcher friendly ballparks though in Seattle and Texas, so
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is not going to be a pitcher friendly like that.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: But he is still good on the road. He's got
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: a low hit rate, high strikeout rate. His problem is
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: the walks. His walk number is way too high, like
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: he's walking one guy every two winnings.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't do that.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: But his other numbers are good and he's good against
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: the Twins as well. They only have six hitters who
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: have faced him though fourteen at bats, two fourteen average,
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: six ninety five OPS, which is being skewed a little
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: bit by the one extra base hit, which is a
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: home run from Josh Bell, four strikeouts, one walk here.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: I think Soriano I would lean towards him pitching well here,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: even though this is going to be more difficult than
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: his last two starts. Taj Bradley is pitching from Minnesota.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: I can't figure him out. Man, he was good at
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: the beginning of the season. I've always thought that he
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: had talent, but it never really came to fruition with
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. He's mostly been good this year, but I
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: try to play on him when he was like in
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: his bad stretch, and now it looks like he's good again,
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: and I'm and I'm like not giving out plays on
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: him now. In fact, they tried to fade him in
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: his last game because Minnesota's are turning home from a
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: road trip and he had bad matchup numbers, and that
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: didn't work out. He's got pretty good numbers here three
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: point six seven e RA, one point two to two whip.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: He's good at home three point two to two home
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: ye Ray really good in his last two outings. Man
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: twenty one strikeouts in three walks in twelve innings.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's pretty good. I know.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: His last start was at home against Cleveland. I mean,
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: they can't hit. But he did it on the road
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: against Houston the game before that, and pitch pretty well there.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: So he's pitching well.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: He's got a high strikeout rate, which is one thing
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: I've always noticed about him and thought that he was
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: good for that reason. Like, if you can strike guys
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: out in the majors at that rate, then you have
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: something going for you, you know what I mean. It
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: means you have good stuff. His hit rate is pretty low.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: Is walk rate actually isn't even really that high, so
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: his numbers across the border pretty good. His walk rate
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: is still the worst attribute here. It's a little bit high.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Against Anaheim. He's not been that good though.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: In twenty three at bats to sixty one average eight
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: to eighty five OPS allowed four to two strikeout walk ratios.
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: So I don't really want to back him here. Looking
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: at what's been happening in this series, each team has
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: won one game in the series, so this is a
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: rubber match of the series, which usually means both teams
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: will show up with motivation. You know, I think this
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: might be an under in the first five here. It's
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: another hot Like I've said this, I think this is
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: the third time I've said this on the show, where
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: you have a total of nine or nine and a half,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: yet I like the first five under, and usually I
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: don't do that with these higher totals because the oddsmakers
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: are kind of telling you they think it's gonna be
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: a high scoring game.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: But this is one of those games.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: I think the starting pitching is just way different from
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: the bullpens. The bullpens suck, but I think a first
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: five under makes some sense here, and the money is
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: back in the under sixty three percent to taket seventy
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on the under. Obviously, like
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: I said, avoid the bullpens first five under, both starting
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: pitchers might pitch well here, the money's back in Minnesota.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think I agree with that.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: Eighty two tickets ninety two percent of the cash on
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: them in about minus one thirty. I don't really want
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: to fade Bradley in the you know, just given his
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: current form being pretty good. I know Soriano's last two
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: starts are against offenses that aren't as good as Minnesota's,
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: but Soriano's got the better matchup numbers, so I think
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: I would slightly lean Anaheim first five here, but I
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: think first five under might be the way to look
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: at that game more than anything else. That's basically what
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: I got on that next game. I'm gonna have an
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: opinion on this where I might have. This one almost
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: made the cut for me. The A's and the White Sox.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: It's a little bit questionable, but I do have a
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: stronger opinion on that game than most of these games today. Michael,
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: what's up man Magic Johnson?
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Is he lying about that or is
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: he not lying? I don't know.
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: He's still alive and I've been doing pretty well, so
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Man A's and White Sox. White Sox
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: are on the version of sweep. They won the first
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: game in a blowout, but yesterday it was a low
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: scoring game.
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: And they only won one to not think so.
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: I think Gage Jump pitched in that one, so it
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: looks like Jump did better again, but the White Sox
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: got good pitching in that one too. This game, to me, though,
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: I think the A's have the starting pitching edge here.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: They do not have a bullpen advantage though, uh the
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: A's should have a motivational edge because they're trying to
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: avoid the sweep, so I'm gonna mention that again.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: You know, trying to avoid the sweep is a motivator.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: The A's did use two relief pitchers yesterday, but their
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: bullpen is just not good. White Sox use four, but
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: they still have a bullpen advantage over The A's were
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: ranked twenty fifth and they have the second worst bullpen
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: in the Ray.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: They're not good, dude. The White Sox their bullpen the
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: Rays below four. That's not bad at all. They ran nineteenth,
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: so yeah, White Sox have the better bullpen. Both offenses
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: are pretty capable. The A's are fourteenth, the White Sox
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: are eleventh. White Sox exploded two games ago in the
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: first game with Murcami back, but couldn't do much of
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: anything yesterday, and I think they might not do a
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: ton against j T. Gin here for the A's gain.
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: He might be their best pitcher, man. I mean, maybe
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: you could argue that jump is just because of his upside,
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: but Gin has had a good season here, and you
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: know you have to factor in that he's pitching in
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: the A's stadium half the time too. He's got a
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: three point one e RRA and one point.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Two to two whip. That's pretty good.
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: He's better on the road as you would expect a
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: two point four to nine roady ra so he's quite
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: good away.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: From the A's stadium, which makes sense.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: One issue here is his walk rate has been too
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: high over his last couple of starts. He pitched well
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: against the Dodgers, but he did walk so many guys
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: that maybe he got a little bit lucky. There. Still
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: a good sign that he went six innings and only
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: allowed one run against the Dodgers.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: Though that was at home as well.
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: Wasn't as good on the road last time on against Detroit.
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: His numbers overall he does have a low hit rate
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: here is walk rate is too high though so as
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: I was alluding to, that's his one problem as he
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: walks too many guys. The strike out rate is okay.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's not really a strikeout pitcher, but I
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: think he might do well here because he's on the
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: road in the better of his splits. The White Sox
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: haven't really seen him. They only have two hitters of
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: have seeing him three at bats, only one hit a
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: single from Ben and Tende. The usual suspect there because
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: he's been around forever. Former Red Sox player Andrew ben
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: and Tendee a one strikeout here as well. Also Ben
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: and Tendee really not a whole lot to see here,
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: but Gain is unfamiliar to the White Sox, so he
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: might be able to pitch a little bit better. For
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: that reason, White Sox is going with Noah Schultz. Schultz
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: is really young man, and I think he does have
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of upside, but he's been struggling. He's
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: got a six ERA one point four to two whip,
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: he's been struggling with the wildness man like. He looks
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: like he has decent stuff, doesn't strike out a ton
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: of guys, but.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is way too high.
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit better at home five point
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: four to nine home ye ra, and actually his opponent
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: batting average is actually pretty low, so he's difficult to hit. Again,
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: his issue is he's walking a ton of guys seven
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: walks over his last nine to third innings.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: That's not good over the course of the season.
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: Pretty low hit rate like I was alluding to, but
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: a really high walk rate not good. And his strikeout
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: rate is decent, So again, if he was able to
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: get his walk number down, I think he's gonna have
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: something like. I think he's pretty good. Other than that,
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: the A's have faced him a little bit. They have
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: six at bats against him, zero for six though with
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: two strikeouts, and that came this year. Kind of surprised
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: they only have three active hitters who faced him, because
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: he went five innings against them back on April nineteenth
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: in the A's stadium by the way, where it's not
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: easy to pitch, and he only gave up one hit
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: against them, which was a solo home run, and whoever
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: hit that isn't even on their active roster right now.
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: It looks like because he wasn't in that zero for
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: six obviously, six strikeouts, one walk. So I like the
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: A's in the first five here. I think Ginn is
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: the way more backable pitcher here right now, just given
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: what their current form is. But Schultz was successful against
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: the A's last time. But it's possible he's in a
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: little bit of a disadvantage now because I talk about
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: how when a young pitcher pitches that first start, a
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: lot of times they have an extra advantage because the
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: hitters don't know what to expect. But now that these
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: hitters do know what to expect because they saw him once,
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: they might hit him better this time. However, that only
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: applies to three guys in the A's lineup right now,
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: so it doesn't apply to most of the A's lineup,
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: So I'm not really gonna put that much weight into Oh,
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: this is his second time facing them, so they should
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: bomb him this time. However, all that being said, I
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: do like the A's in the first five here. I
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: still think backing Gain makes the most sense here, and
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: the money is agreeing with me on this. White Sox
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: are about minus one thirty here, sixty percent of the
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: tickets on them, ninety five percent of the cash on
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: the A's. I think the feeling is Schultz is just
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: a wild card man. Maybe doesn't he just probably doesn't
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: deserve to be favored this heavily, you know what I mean,
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: even though he's at home and I think he might
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: be good eventually, but right now, I mean, I think
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: Gain getting him as an underdog makes sense. First five,
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: you probably get him is a little bit less of
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: an underdog. But the way I would do this is
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: A's first five. Probably it would be a money line play,
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: but yeah, that's that's the way I would look in
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: that game. Obviously, I want no part of the A's bullpen,
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: and the money is coming in on the over in
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: that game for whatever that's where at eight and a half,
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: But I didn't really have my eye on the total
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: in that one. I think A's first five is what
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: makes the most sense. Five more games to go. I
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: got one more play here, and then I have a
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: play in the WNBA as well, And there's no World
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: Cup today, and I have another lean in the WNBA.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: That didn't make my card.
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: I like quite a bit, and it might be another
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: one of those where I leave it on the table
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: and it winds up being a winner. But I'll be
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: happy as long as my one actual play in the
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: WNBA also wins. Where I think we're what two games
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: about five hundred again in the WNBA. We got to
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: get back on track with that, which maybe we're starting to.
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: But I'll be right back in a second.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on own
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: four that have not had a good season.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: Man with wickends slump that I'm on, the slump continue,
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm trying to burn
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: my brons haack. Man, I don't know what is going
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: on with the bruins arch epe. Is that what it is?
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: even knows?
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: Man, I don't know what day it is anymore. I
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back with
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: Back with you as I always am until I die,
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: not go well for me. Own five, the worst month
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: To the slump, the slump discontinues, The slump continues.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: other than potentially end it all all right, back to this,
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: we got Atlanta and Saint Louis, and believe it or not,
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is on the verge of a sweep pier
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: of the Braves. Motivation should go to the Braves here
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: because they're trying to avoid the sweep.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: They're the better team here.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: However, they don't have the greatest pitching match up here
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: to get this done. Saint Louis is favored and probably
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: should be given with the starting pitching matchup, and Saint
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: Louis doesn't have a good bullpen. Though they use three
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen, the Braves have the better bullpen.
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: They only use one guy, so this is a rested bullpen,
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: and the Braves are still ranked number one in bullpen overall,
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: although they're era is slightly worse than the Yankees. With
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: their overall numbers put them number one, or at least
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: when I range it by whip, but I think there's
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit more of a gap there the bullpen
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: for Saint Louis, they're twentieth. They're very mediocre bullpen.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Braves.
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: They haven't been hitting as well recently though they've fallen
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: down to fifteenth. Offensively, Saint Louis hasn't really been that
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: good either. They're twenty yet then this is a more
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: pitcher friendly ballpark here, but Atlanta's going with Jr.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: Richie. He looked good early in the season. He's still young,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: has some talent.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: But he hasn't really been that good overall, four point
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: sixty RA, one point four to seven whip that's not
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: very good. He's not quite as good on the road,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: a four point nine to four roady RA. He's been
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: making short appearances recently, so I don't even know, like
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: with those out of the bullpen they might have been
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: because he's made three relief appearances yere, so I would
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: be aware of that, like the Braves might actually put
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: an opener in front of him or I don't really
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: know what they're planning on doing here, So just be
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: aware of that that if you're gonna play this game,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: you might want to not select a pitcher for the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: Braves because Richie is probably gonna be in the game.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: But it looks like it's gonna be maybe even more
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: of like a bullpen game for the Braves. But that
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: might be a good thing for the Braves because their
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen's good. They're really rested here and they don't have
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: to worry, but they can unload.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: That's one thing. Because we're going into the All Star
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: break here.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: The bullpens can be completely unloaded today for every team,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: So that's something to consider that the bullpen pitching might
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: be a little bit better today because literally everybody's on
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: the table pretty much. Unless guys have pitched like multiple
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: days in a row or whatever. The bullpens can get
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: unloaded here and teams don't have to worry about that
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: because they don't have to play tomorrow or for a while.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: Basically, Richie does have a low hit rate, so that's good.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is way too high though, does have
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of strikeouts, so he does have the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: ability to fool major league hitters, which is important. But again,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: he's wild. I mean, I feel like I say that
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: about a lot of pitchers, so that is the case
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: with him. I just don't know what we're gonna get
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: out of him here. It's a real question mark. Saint
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: Louis has never faced him, so maybe he has a
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: little bit of advantage there because they're unfamiliar with him.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: Really really difficult to figure this game out. Dustin May
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: is the more predictable pitcher in some ways.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: He's pitching for the Cardinals.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: He's been decent four point five to five year array,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: but his whip is one point two five, so that
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: we've been against the era should actually be lower than
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: what it is, and he's been pretty good at home
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: a three point five to nine Homie ra May pitching
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: pretty well. Pitched pretty well last time out against Milwaukee,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: could bounce back because he was terrible in the previous
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: two starts, both on the road, by the way, came
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: back home one of those starts, though it is noteworthy
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: that one of those really bad starts was against the Braves,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: so keep that in mind. But he might pitch better.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's not gonna give up five runs to
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: two thirds of an inning this time, I would not imagine.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: But I don't really know why they took him out
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: in his last game, because he went four and two
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: thirds shut out ball against Milwaukee. Wasn't really putting anybody
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: on base there, striking guys out, and I don't really know
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: why they shortened his outing there, but whatever, it was
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: a nice bounce back performance from him. Though his hit
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: rate is okay on the season, it's lower than one
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: per inning. At least, his walk rate's not bad. Strike
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: out rate is okay too, so he's.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Got decent numbers overall.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: Obviously, it is a concern that he was so bad
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: against the Braves not long ago. The Braves might be
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: able to hit him again. However, if you look at
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: his numbers against them, hit us fairly well against them,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: usually fifty four at bats two four average, seven to
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: thirty two ops, twenty to eight strike a walk ratio
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: is not that good, But the rest of these numbers
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: are not bad, so may may actually pitch well here.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: I think Saint Louis.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: You know, they have a decent chance to pull off
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: this sweet pier man. The money is backing Atlanta here,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: and Saint Louis is favored at about minus one thirty.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: But I mean to me, I've been saying it in
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: this series. It looks too easy to play the Braves,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: doesn't it Like the Braves have the better record on
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: the season. It's like you're getting the Braves as an underdove.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: It looks so easy to play them, even though I
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: know the public is recency biased, and the Braves have
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: lost both games in the series, and we look it
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: looks like there's only a fifty to fifty with the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: ticket percentage here U seventy two percent of the cash
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: on the Braves. The money he is backing the Braves here,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: it looks like but I don't know.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: To me, it looks too easy to play the Braves.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: I might have a slightly in Saint Louis first five.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: Of course, Atlanta obviously has a better bullpen though maybe
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis first five makes some sense here avoid Saint
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: Louis's bullpen though, and the money is back in the under. Yeah,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: the total is more difficult for me to figure out.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: I just don't know what Atlanta is gonna do as
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: far as they're pitching. Like you might see a lot
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: of bullpen usage for Atlanta in this game, like I said,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: which might actually work well for them because their bullpen
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: is good. Overall, the totals at eight, I don't really
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: have much more on that game. It's a really difficult
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: game to figure out. Braves took a Vermont pitching Vermont
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: a powerhouse pitching state. Obviously, do you know him? A
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: high schooler from up in your area there? I don't
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: know who he is, but yeah, I know the Red
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: Sox drafted some North Carolina shortstop Garrett. I don't know
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: who he is either, but I paid a very little
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: I paid very little attention to the draft, but my
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: dad told me. I'm like, all right, my dad is
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: a He's more of a guy that just pays attention
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: to the Red Sox and not baseball in general. I'm like,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: all right, I'll have to look up who this guy is.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: Houston and Texas haven't been a fan of this series
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: because we did lose with Houston in Game one. Houston,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: of course bounts back and one yesterday, so both teams
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: are gonna show up here.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a close divisional battle, dude.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: Texas is only up two games on Houston here and
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: one and a.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: Half on Seattle. Al West is a close race here.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: All these teams are obviously right in the thick of it.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean the surprising thing is these games
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: have gone over the total and this is a Texas series,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: and you know, I talk about these games being typically
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: low scoring, but I don't think this game is gonna
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: be particularly low scoring either.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: Texas used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is good
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: Houston used two.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: Texas.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, they still got the better bullpen, even though
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: they haven't been as good recently, there's still tenth.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: They're still not bad. Houston is eighteenth.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: I am putting them, you know, basically a mediocre bullpen,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: which is a lot better than what they looked like
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: early in the season. Houston is thirteenth. Offensively, I think
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: they're the better offense. Texas is ranked seventeenth, tied with Detroit.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: This does not.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: Look like a particularly good starting pitching matchup. Houston's going
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: with Christian Havier, who has a ten point two to
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: two eer ran two point twenty seven whip awful numbers. However,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: he's not that bad. I mean, you could look at
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: his numbers throughout his career. He's kind of a mediocre pitcher. Actually,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: his career numbers are actually better than mediocre. All though
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: last couple of seasons he really just hasn't pitched that much.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, I think injuries have kind of
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: just derailed him. He's difficult to figure out. He's been
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: really bad on the road though. Eleven point one to
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: two Rodio ra but I want to put that much
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: weight into it because he has a really small sample
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: size here, but he hasn't been good. He has a
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: really high hit rate, really high walk rate, low strikeout rate.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: None of these things look good.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: But I think Hoavier is gonna be an opener here
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: man because his last three outings he's only gone one
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: or two innings and it looks like he was either
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: injured or they send him to the miners. And then
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: since he's been back, he's only gone two innings and
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: one inning in his last couple of appearances.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: So I think he might be an opener here.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna play this game, I would uh not
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: select a starter for the Astro because I I don't
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: even know if he's actually gonna start for them, you
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: know what I mean. It looks like they might just
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: go with a bullpen game here, though, like I said,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: a lot of teams might do something like that today.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: This might be one of those, so just keep that
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: in mind. But if you're gonna play the game, I
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: think I would not select Houston's starter because it's just
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: gonna be I think a random mix of pitchers for
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: them today. Mackenzie Gore looks like he will be pitching
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: for the Rangers four point seven two ERA one point
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: three to one whip not great there, but he is
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: still better at home three point five four home ERA
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: did not do us any favors last time out. We
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: lost that under because of him against Anaheim.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was, dude.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: He gave up seven runs in five innings, but he
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: still had seven strike outs in one walk, so his
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: command numbers was still really good. And this is not
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: what you usually see out of Gore. Like Gore's problem
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: is usually is a walk rate. Like he usually is
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: pretty much unhittable, but he walks too many guys and
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: he gets a lot of strikeouts. I don't know what
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: was going on with him where he was so hittable
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: over the last couple of outings.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: No clue, dude. Overall, his overall numbers look more like
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: you would expect from him. He has a pretty low
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: hit rate, his walk rate is definitely too high. His
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: strike gut rate is also high. I think that is
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: generally what we're gonna get out of him. But he
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: does not have good numbers against Houston. Seven at bats
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: three twenty four average eight oh two ops ten one
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio is good, but the rest of
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: these numbers not good. I think this game might actually
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: be an over go figure Texas, you know at home.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the totals high for a Texas game. It's
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: basically hovering around nine sixty one percent of tickets seventy
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on the over. If I
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: was gonna play this game, I would That's what I
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: would do. I would play the over.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: I think Texas should have an advantage with Gore over
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: whatever Houston is doing with their pitching, but minus one
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: thirty four on Texas and the money is fading them
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: sixty one percent of tickets, fifty six percent of the
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: cash on them. I mean, I don't really understand that.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you forced me to give you a
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: side on this game, I'd probably still have to lean Texas,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: because I still think Gore plus the Texas bullpen is
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: going to be better than whatever Houston's putting out there.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: But I still think the over is the best approach
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: in that game. Caden McCarry, all right, he sounds very irish,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: sounds New England. Never played against you, but oh he's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: younger than you. All right, yeah it makes sense. Uh
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: all right, yeah, that makes sense. Highest drafted a player
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: from player or pitcher player, probably from Vermont.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, not a lot of Major League Baseball players
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: from Vermont.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: Okay, Uh, Vermont is the third least populated state I
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: believe in the entire country, only two Wyoming in Alaska.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, obviously Vermont is a small state, but
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: it's also very sparsely populated, Like basically the only population
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: center in Vermont is Burlington, and it's a you know,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: really gay college town. You've had two He's only the
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: second Vermont player ever, all right, probably that makes sense.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: Colorado and San Francisco. San Francisco won the game yesterday.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: San Francisco is leading this series two to one.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: This is a four game series here. It's the only
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: four game series here.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: I still think both teams at least will show up
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: motivation wise here. I mean, neither team is having a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: good season. Colorado only is one relief pitcher. They're not
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen, though San Francisco also used one. They
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: haven't been pitching well either, but they're better than Colorado.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: San Francisco's twenty third still not doing well, but Colorado
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: twenty eighth.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: They're not a good bullpen.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: Definitely, a bottom several bullpen there, but both bullpens, you
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: could definitely make the argument they're both bad. Colorado's fourth
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: and offense they've been doing well there San Francisco's twelfth.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: I still don't think San Francisco is that good offensively,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: and again I think they're gonna drop off again offensively
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: at some point. It might not be here against Colorado's pitching,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: like I've been saying, but eventually Colorado's going with Michael Lorenzen.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: He is not good obviously, six point four to six
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: y Ray, one point seven to eight whip, none of
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: that is good.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: He is a little bit less bad on the road, though,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: I mean he's worse in course field for obvious reasons.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: Five point three to six Roadie raise at least better,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: and this is at least a pitcher friendly ballpark and
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: an offense that I don't think is that good. Lorenzo,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, his walk rate has been really bad recently.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: Usually that's not his main problem, though usually he's too hittable.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: But he still pitched pretty well. In his last game
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: against LA on the road. He was able to kind
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: of shut down the Dodgers and Colorado won that game,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: which is pretty insane. I think Lorenzo actually has decent
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: numbers in his career against the Dodgers. He's got a
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: really high hit rate.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: On the season.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: Like I said, that's his main issue is he's very hittable.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: He's got a reasonable walk rate, it's not too bad.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: Strike got rate as low as you probably expected. He
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: does not strike guys out, but against San Francisco he
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: also doesn't do well in forty at past three seventy
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: five average nine seven to two strikeout walk ratio, and yeah,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: I mean those are not good numbers overall at all.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: Trevor McDonald's pitcher for San Francisco. He looked good last
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: year and early this year, but he's definitely fallen off
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: He's not pitching well right now, although I think he's
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: he's got some talent.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's out of these two pitchers, he's the
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: one that has the upside obviously because he's he's a
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: young pitcher that might actually become something. He's got a
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: five point four to six ERA here though, one point
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: three to eight whip that's not good. And he's been
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: inexplicably really bad at home seven point nine to four
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: home array. I don't know what the deal is with that.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: I have no idea why he's so bad at home.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: You know, we're more pitcher friendly park. He got obliterated
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: here in his last start against Toronto.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: That is not a good sign. I mean, Toronto's not
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: a good offense.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: Prior to that, he had a good start on the
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: road against Arizon, on the road against Arizona, but of
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: course it was on the road again. He's just not
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: been good at home. He's got a kind of high
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: hit right now. Walk rate's not really that good as
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate is mediocre. He induces a lot of ground balls,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: so that's something, but overall not great. And the Rockies
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: only have four hitters who have faced him. They've had
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: some success though, two fifty average. They do have a
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: home run from Tovar in there. Four strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: seven to fifty ops. I don't really see McDonald pitching
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: that well here either. I think you have two pretty
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: questionable pitchers here, two pretty questionable bullpens. I think this
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: game is an over. That's the way I would go
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: in this game. The total is I mean it's slightly high.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: I guess at nine. I thought it was at eight
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: and a half. It's at nine, which makes more sense.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: It's right on that key number. Money is definitely back
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: in the over, fifty two percent of tickets on the under,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: That is how I would play this. I don't really
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: have a good read on the side.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: It looks like the money is fading San Francisco though,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: they're a minus one forty four or so now seventy
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: eight percent of tickets seventy six percent of the cash
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: on them. I don't know about that, man. I think
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: McDonald could outpitch lorenz In here.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 3: I would not be playing Colorado here. There's not a
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: whole lot to like there. But I think the over
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: is like the pretty obvious.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: Way to play that game.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's too obvious though, I don't know, but if
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: I was, if you're forced me to play that game,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: over would definitely be what I would do in that one.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: Arizona and the Dodgers. Dodgers are trying to avoid a sweep.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: Believe it or not, they were like a minus three
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: hundred favorite almost in both of these games, and they've
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: been awful. They've been outscored eighteen to five in the series.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: It's unbelievable. But I think they really just have been
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: slacking off because they have such a big lead in
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: the NL West right now. I think they're just kind
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: of like whatever, and they're going into the All Star Break.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: But they probably are gonna show up here. I mean,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: you don't want to get swept like this at home
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: going into the All Star Break as the better team Arizona.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're gonna show up, but Dodgers are the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: better team here. Dodgers don't really have an elite pitcher
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: on the mount here though. I believe they had Yamamoto
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: on the mound yesterday and they still did poorly, So
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is there. I think
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: they just left him in. It looks like too, because
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers used no relief pitchers yesterday, so it looks
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: like they just left him in. The Dodgers should have
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: a bit of a bullpen advantage here for that reason
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: and because they think they have a slightly better bullpen.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: Arizona used four relief pitchers Arizona's ranked fifth, and bullpen
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: Dodgers is six, but the Dodgers have a better bullpen year.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: Ray I think they're a little bit better than Arizona's
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: and they're more rested here. Dodgers obviously have the way
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: better offense, which has not shown up in this series,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: but their number one still and the Diamondbacks are number
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: twenty five. So Dodgers, you gotta expect that at least
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: they're gonna probably get some runs here. But it's a
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: bit unpredictable because they got to go up against Mitch Bratt,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: who is a really young left handed pitcher. I think
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: he's got some talent, man. I looked at his scouting.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think he's a guy that throws
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: particularly hard. I mean, he's got kind of a smaller frame.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: He's not really that tall compared to some other pictures here.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: But I think he's got a decent pitch mix. We
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: don't really know much about him yet. He's only made
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: one appearance so far. It was on the road at
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis, and obviously on the road at the Dodgers
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 3: is a completely different scenario because Saint Louis doesn't really
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: hit that well, especially at home, and that's a picture
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: friendly ballpark. The Dodgers are a much more potent offense,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: but Bratt. I mean, he pitched pretty well in that game.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: He went three innings. I don't really know what you're
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: gonna get out of him here. It seems like they
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: do have him on a pitch count, so he's probably.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: Only gonna go a few innings here and then the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: Diamondbacks are probably gonna go to their bullpen here.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's not a good thing. I don't know.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: Dodgers, of course, haven't seen him before, so maybe Bratt
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: will be successful when he's out there, but I don't
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: really want to bank on that. The Dodgers are at
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: least going with a more proven starter in Emmett she
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: His four point nine to one era is not really
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: that good though obviously it's not, but his whip indicates
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: that his ERA should be a bit lower than that.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: One point two seven whip is not too bad. He's
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: a little bit better at home a four point seventy
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 3: nine homye ra I mean, he's not that bad of
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: a pitcher, Like I've been watching him for a while,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: and he's got talent. I mean, obviously he has a
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate, so that's a good thing. He counts
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: strike guys out at the highest level of baseball. His
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: hit rate is decent. His walk rate's a little bit
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: too high. But overall, I mean, if you look at
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: just these overall numbers here, he's not that bad. I
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: think he's gotten a little bit unlucky with the home
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: run rate here, although he is more of a fly
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: ball pitcher. Arizona has had some success against him, mostly
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: with the home runs, so very Shean like here, Marie.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: He's held him to a two h five average, but
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: a seven to ninety five ohps is pretty high because
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: they have four home runs off him, but fourteen strikeouts,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: no walks. I think most of these numbers make it
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: look better for Shean than for the Dodgers. I know
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: the ops is a decent indicator, but no walks there.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: With a lot of strikeouts, the home runs just seem
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: more flukey to me, So I think Shean might actually
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: pitch okay here. I wouldn't recommend playing the Dodgers, though,
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: I mean they are obviously you're paying a lot for
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers there minus two twenty five here, that's a
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: pretty expensive price. They're public eighty seven percent of tickets,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: ninety two of the cash on them, so you know,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: it looks like basically their public Maybe the.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: Money's coming in that way.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's a situational angle for it, because the
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are one of those home teams trying to avoid
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: a sweep. I I just think this game is really unpredictable, man,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: And the money seems to be backing the under nine
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: and a half here, which I I just don't know, man.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: I don't have a good grasp on this game at all.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you want to just go with with
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers still like break out the bats here, maybe
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: you could go Dodgers over their team total here. I'm
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: maybe they'll finally get something going offensively. Bratt is unfamiliar
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: to them, but he might not be in the game
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: for that long. Dodgers might be able to do something
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: against this Arizona pitching staff and turn something around here.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: But that's not a game that I like at all.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: I will go out to play on this last game here, though,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: And I know we're going with one of these dicey
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: first five run line situations here where we need.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: Toronto to be winning at the end of five innings.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: I think they can do it.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: We're gonna lay the half run to get the price
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: down to even money, because if you're gonna play the
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: money line on them in the first five, it's like
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: above minus one fifty.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: So I don't want to do that.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: But that's obviously because the oddsmakers know Toronto's got a
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: big edge in the starting pitching here, and they don't
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: have as much of an edge in the bullpen.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna cut the bullpens out. This is against
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: San Diego. San Diego does have a good bullpen.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: Although they use four guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: including Mason, but they might use them again today because
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: he hadn't pitched for three days and he's not gonna
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: pitch in the upcoming days, although he might pitch in
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: the All Star Game or something, but other than that,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: they don't really have to worry about his usage. Toronto,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: I don't like how their bullpen sets up here, these
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: four guys yesterday, I'm gonna skip their bullpen. They're not great.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: They've been okay, but they're not great. They're number eleven.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: San Diego's number twelve. But I think San Diego does
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpen, so I'm gonna cut them out
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: of the equation. In fact, they should be ranked better
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: than Toronto here because they have the same whip and
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: a better ERA, so they should rank higher. It's just
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: that that this website doesn't have a secondary sorting category,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 3: so that's some bullshit.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: They should hire me.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: I'll code it four of them. I've done a lot
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: of data sorting mechanisms in the past. Hitting wise, san
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: Diego's dead last thirtieth. Not good. They're not in a
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: hitter friendly part obviously by any means. Toronto doesn't hit
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: well either. They're twenty six, although they've been a little
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: bit better than San Diego. But we're gonna back Kevin
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: Gusman here man. I know Goussman has let me down
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 3: a little bit. He's got a four point three to
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: two ERA, which isn't really that good, but he's still
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: a solid pitcher, dude. His whip is not bad at
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: one point two to two, so his ERA probably should
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: be a bit lower than that. I know he hasn't
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: been as good on the road five point five to
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 3: seven road era, but he's pitched less on the road
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: this year, and he got kind of hammered last time,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: but that was against the San Francisco team, and I
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: think had good numbers against him. I'm pretty sure I
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: pointed that out. So for whatever reason, he has a
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: bad matchup against San Francisco. I know three of his
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: last four starts have been bad, but he's gonna bounce
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: back at some point. Man, he's a good enough pitcher
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: that that should happen. You look at his overall numbers,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, these are pretty good numbers. His hit rate's
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: not really that high, doesn't really walk guys, so that's good.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: Strike out rate is high high enough, and he's a
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: fly ball pitcher, so he gives up too many home runs,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: but that should be mitigated.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: Pitching in San Diego.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: I mean it's a very cavernous stadium where it's hard
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: to hit home runs against the Padres. He's been decent
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: in one hundred and seventy at bats. We have a
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: big sample size here, two fifty three average allowed, six
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: ninety four ohps.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, really, you're just looking at like the two
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: guys that you expect here.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: Machado and Bogarts are kind of the guys that do
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: the most damage here.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: So if he can avoid tatise, I guess so they're
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: better hitter.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's just expected they're better hitters hit better
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: against him, but still his numbers are good overall against them,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: forty one strikeout, seven walks. That's a good ratio, and
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: I think he should be able to outpitch Herman Marquez,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: who has basically spent his career with Colorado, which I
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: know is gonna make his numbers look worse. But pitching
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: for San Diego hasn't really helped his numbers that much.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point oh two ERA, one point
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: four to three whip that's not good.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: He's been inexplicably bad at home seven point five homi RA,
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: so that's really bad.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: So he's not pitching well in this stadium for whatever reason.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: I know it's a small sample size, but his worst
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: start seem like they've all come at home pretty much, Colorado, Arizona,
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: White Sox. His overall numbers is not a lot to
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: like here. His hit rate is okay, but his walk
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: rate's way too high. Strike out rate is not very good. Again,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: not a lot to like, and numbers against Toronto not good.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: They only have six hitters who have faced him, but
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: they have a three thirty three average and eight seventy.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: Two ohps against him. Eight to four strike out walk ratio.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: One thing to be aware of is that he might
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: not start, although I think he's going to because he
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: started in all but one of his appearances this year.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: So you know, just thinking about like, should you pick
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: both starters must start here? I would say yes because
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: I think Marquez is going to start, but I guess
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're really worried about that, I mean, I.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: Don't think San Diego is gonna have anybody good pitching here,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: Like I think, if anything, it's me Marquez starting most likely.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: But if if he doesn't, I think they're gonna put
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: an opener.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: In front of him and then just use him after that.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: But I think he's just gonna start, So I think
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: that's the way this is gonna go. The money is
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: agreeing with me. Last I saw yet, sixty three percent
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on Toronto. Uh,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: you're laying minus one thirty on the money lane, whage
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 3: I know is a bit to lay with Toronto. But
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: I think this is a pretty big starting pitching mismatch,
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 3: and that's where I'm focusing here, although again, you have
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: to pay more for it, so we have to go
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: with the run line to knock the price down, so
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 3: both of my players are even money here.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: But hopefully we can get this done here.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: Uh So that's gonna be the last baseball play in
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: the last game on the board. No World Cup today,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: but we do have some WNBA to talk about here.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: Four WNBA games. I have one play here and it's
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: in the first game. So we get an afternoon game
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: that's on NBA TV, because I know everybody wants to
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: watch this, the New York Toronto game here. I know
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: this line did open at seven and a half, and
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: I talk about how seven is a key numbers you'd
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 3: rather be on the better side of it. You're not
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: gonna see that number again. It was gone very quickly.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: But I'm still gonna give out Toronto plus six and
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: a half here. I think this is a good spot
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 3: to play Toronto and to really to fade New York.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 3: New York is just they're playing a lot of big
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: games recently, ma'am. And I know they're not as bad.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: As the record looks.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: I will give you that, but look at what they've
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: done recently, man, I mean they won the Commissioner's Cup,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: big win, over Vegas.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: Then they beat Minnesota after that, then they.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: Lost to Dallas, and I gave up that as a
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: play on the show with Dallas that was a win
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: for us on the show.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: Then it was because they were in a sandwich, a
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: Minnesota sandwich. And then what did they do?
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: They played literally yesterday against Minnesota. Now they have to
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: turn around and play an afternoon game after playing against
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: Minnesota yesterday.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: That was a close game. They lost by five, big
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: game against Minnesota on the road, Like, how are they
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: gonna turn around and playing a back to back here?
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: And by the way, their next game will be on
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: Thursday on Prime, Amazon Prime, and that's gonna be against Dallas,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: the team that just beat them in New York. They're
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 3: gonna have the opportunity to go into Dallas to try
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: to beat them. And they play Indiana and Caitlyn Clark
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: after that. So to me, this was like a spot
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: where they're gonna overlook their opponent. Dude, this is a
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: sandwich spot here. Yeah, I just don't think it's a
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: good spot. They did already beat Toronto the one time
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: they played them earlier this year. They beat them by
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: fifteen in New York, So I don't really see them
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: paying that much attention to Toronto here. They're gonna have
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: to do a bit of a thing that they're not
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: familiar with and go to Toronto here, you know, go
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: play in a venue they've never played him before or whatever,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: go through customs that could maybe affect them as well here.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 3: I only have one little concern with Toronto here, and
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 3: that's the way that Toronto lost their last game against Dallas.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: Isn't great. Like Toronto was in that game for most
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: of that game. I think they're winning the game at halftime,
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: and then.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: They still were right in that game early in the
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter, and then they fell apart and they wound
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: up losing by thirteen. But I'm a little bit less
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: worried because they didn't take Dallas to the wire or
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: anything like that.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: Like they were down seven, you know, with like four
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: minutes after or whatever, so they were kind of out
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: of the game at that point. So they didn't take
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: that game right to the wire, So I'm less worried
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: about that. Obviously, they have rest because they didn't play yesterday,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: New York did, so New York is at a big
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: rest disadvantage here because of that, and Toronto is staying
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: at home, so they're at a travel advantage here.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna show up because they're one in
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: four on this home stand here. They do have a
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: long home stand.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: It's gonna continue for three more games. But I think
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: they're gonna want to get this game at home. They're
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: playing against what is probably the best team in the East,
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: still New York. This is gonna be a big game
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: for them, man, So we're gonna take the points to
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: Toronto here.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: I think they could definitely do this at home.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 3: New York is public sixty seven percent of tickets on them,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: only sixty three percent of the cash, So the money
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: is agreeing with me on this. Six and a half
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: is the number on New York here. Like I said
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 3: to him, I don't think you're gonna be able to
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: find a better price than this.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. Maybe there's a seven out there.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, let me see, obviously.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: I mean you could wait around and see if the
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 3: seven shows up, because I don't think it really mattered,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 3: Like you know, six and a half, it's not gonna
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: matter that much if it drops to six. I don't
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: see any sevens right now, though, so do with that
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: info what you want, but I found it at six
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 3: and a half. Again, Yeah, you could wait and try
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: to get the seven, but I'm willing to play that
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: game at six and a half.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot to play Toronto, and looking.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: At the market read, you know, I'm i'm I might
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: be about to add another play in the WNBA because
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 3: I do like both of these games. It's not the
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 3: next game though, Seattle in Washington the other afternoon game,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: the game that doesn't get a TV billing and is
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: an ugly game. I mean, Seattle's bad, Washington's kind of mediocre. Washington,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: they're staying at home and they did just get embarrassed
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: at home against gold State. They only put up forty
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 3: nine points and they've had almost a week off to
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: get over that.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: So I think Washington's in a.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: Decent bounce back spot here staying at home off a
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: very embarrassing loss. And you can kind of explain what
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: happened there because they had a big win over Atlanta
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: the game before that, so I think they just couldn't
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 3: keep it up. And this is a three game home stand,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: so they're gonna want to win the home stand. So
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 3: I expect motivation from Washington here. So a motivated, better
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: team might be the way you want to look here Seattle,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're not a very good team. They're coming
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: in from Atlanta, they have less rest because they did
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: play on Thursday. They'll probably show up and try to
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: win this game too. But I think Washington's in the
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: better spot. They're in a bounce back spot, staying at
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: home more rest. The money's back in Washington as well.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: I would I lean that way. I would lay it
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: with Washington if I was gonna play this one. I
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: don't feel that strongly about it, but sixty seven percent
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: of tickets, eighty three percent of the cash on Washington
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: and minus five and a half, that's the way I
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: would lean there.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: The public is probably gonna have a tendency to not
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: want to lay.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: Points with a ten and ten team, Like they don't
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: like laying would they perceive to be kind of a
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: big number with a team it's not even above five hundred?
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: You know, next game up?
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: You know what, I think I'm gonna add a play.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is the game I told you. I
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 3: was looking at another game here and I was like,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: you know what, Like this game just I like it,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: like well enough here. The money just wasn't agreeing with
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: me earlier in the morning.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: But it looks like it is now.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: Let me take a look at this. Yeah, I think
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna do this. Let me see what the best
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: number we can get on this is. It looks like
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 3: it's nine and a half. So as you can tell,
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: I'm talking about playing an underdog here, even though this
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: is a team that's sort of let me down twice recently,
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: I think, but they should have covered both games, and
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: that's the Chicago Sky. Let me just add this banner
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: here real quick. I just had that other banner up
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: for too long. I apologize, but yeah, let's do it.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: Let's play Chicago plus nine and a half.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: We'll play two. We'll have a WNBA Sundame.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: Man Sunday is one of the days that has more
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: WNBA because they're Heathens. They play on the Lord's Day.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 3: We're gonna take Chicago. I know Chicago's let me down
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: twice recently, but really they.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: Should have covered.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: I think both of those games where we played them
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: as an underdog, they played pretty well as an underdog
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: in both of those games. I think they can do
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 3: it again here against Dallas. Dallas is also not a
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 3: very good defense.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: I know this is a home game on ESPN, so
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: that's somewhat of a big deal, like a lot of
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: times home teams will show up for something like that.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: But look at what Dallas has done recently. Dude, Dallas.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, I know they're coming off a Toronto game,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 3: which isn't really that big of a deal, and they
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: did get a little bit of a scare against Toronto,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: but the game before that, they beat New York on
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: the road, which is a huge win. But really my
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 3: main concern here is they're returning home from a road trip.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: And they've been on the road since July second, So
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I talk about this, they went all the
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: way to the East coast.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: Now they're traveling back home from a long road trip.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: I talk about it. That usually becomes a distract can spot,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 3: like you haven't been at home for more than a week.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: You got to get back to home life. It's a
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 3: bad spot, man. And it's possible they overlook Chicago because lukao,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: they have on deck. They got an Amazon Prime game
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 3: against the Liberty, Like I just alluded to, that's gonna
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: be a big game, man, a bigger game than this,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: So I think they might overlook Chicago or Chicago. I
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: don't think it's really as bad as their record looks.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 3: They did already go in and beat Chicago in Chicago
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: by ten back on May twentieth, so they may overlook
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 3: Chicago for that reason too. And actually they beat them
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 3: here at home only by one though, back on June twentieth,
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: So Chicago did play well here in this arena back
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: on June twentieth. But Chicago still may overlook them because
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: they beat or excuse me, Dallas may still overlook them
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 3: because they've beaten them twice. As far as Chicago is concerned,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 3: They're coming up a pretty ugly loss at LA. They're
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 3: finishing a road trip here, but I think they're gonna
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 3: want to try to win this because they're one and
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 3: two on the road trip. They've played somewhat decently on
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: the road trip. They played that game where they should
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 3: have covered. They took it to ot against Vegas, but
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: basically I wound up scoring that as a no play
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 3: on the show because the line was so much lower
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 3: because of the Asia Wilson injury situation.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: There.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: Chicago beat Phoenix during the road trip, decent win, and
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 3: then they lost to LA That's kind of an ugly loss, dude,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 3: and they give up over one hundred points there. I
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 3: think Chicago is a little bit better defensively than what
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 3: that game would show Chicago. I mean, they've had some
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: players that have been injured recently, but they're getting a
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: little bit healthier here. Skyler Diggins is still out though,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: so that is one thing that she's not coming back
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 3: for this one. But you're getting a lot of points here, man,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 3: And I know Chicago's not really that good on the road.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 3: Dallas obviously is the better team they're at home, but
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 3: that's why you're getting nine and a half points here, man.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: And the money looks like it is starting to agree
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: with me.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: Now, sixty percent of ticket, sixty five percent of the
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: cash at Chicago.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: Let's do it, man. I think I like the other
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: play more, but we'll do both. And you know, if
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: we go one to one, we'll still be up on
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: the w NBA season slightly. I think what I haven't
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: been totally keeping tracking in one of my I think
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: I'm am I nine and seven in the WNBA. Now
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: I forget, but hopefully we can continue. We had a
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: decent w NBA.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: Season last year anyway, so we're gonna continue with it.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: And then there's an NBC Peacock game that is in
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 3: Indiana Las Vegas rematch. This will be in Vegas, and
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: it's more than a rematch because what happened in the
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: last game. Vegas did just play Indiana at home three
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 3: games ago, but that game was in T Mobile Arena,
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: which is not Vegas's main home stadium, and I believe
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: they're gonna be back in their home arena for this game. Yeah,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: the michelob Ultra Arena. So Vegas is back in their
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: actual home stadium this time. And as you'll notice, Indiana
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 3: embarrassed them in that game. Vegas lost that last game
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: in T Mobile in Vegas, in their you know, home
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 3: away from home, if you want to call it that,
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 3: the secondary home arena. They lost eighty four to sixty eight.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: That was a miserable performance from Vegas. But I don't
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 3: know what to take away from that because if you remember,
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 3: Caitlin Clark was out for Indiana in that game, but
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 3: Asia Wilson was out for the Aces in that game,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 3: so the star player for both teams didn't play in
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 3: that game, so I don't think there's a whole lot
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: to take away from that result. However, I don't really
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: want to come and play Vegas here, even though this
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 3: probably should be a revenge spot for Vegas here. You know,
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 3: like they know that they lost that game badly to Indiana,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: They're gonna want to probably show up and beat them
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: this time.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: The problem with that is Vegas played yesterday.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: Vegas, they're staying at home at least, but Vegas is
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 3: on a back to back that's not gonna be easy.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 3: And they won yesterday's game by forty eight points against Phoenix,
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: absolutely ridiculous, one oh six to fifty eight, one of
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: the biggest blowouts you're ever gonna see in the WNBA.
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 3: So I don't love playing on a team that's coming
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: off a massive blowout like that, and.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: Now they're on a back to back.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 3: I don't love that, even though they should have a
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: bit of a revenge modive here against Indiana. Indiana's coming
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: off a win over Phoenix, though that was a big
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: win for Indiana because you know they had that issue
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 3: with Phoenix. They played two games at home against Phoenix
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: in late June, and that was when that whole fiasco
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: happened where whatever her name is on what is it
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 3: Carter on Phoenix, you know, push Caitlin Clark's neck, and
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: there was the huge thing Caitlin Clark got injured. These
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 3: two teams, Phoenix and Indiana do not like each other.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 3: And Indiana was able to get that win in Phoenix
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: back on Thursday. That was a very satisfying win for them. Now,
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: obviously they're rested because they have two days of rest.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: Vegas doesn't have any traveling from Phoenix to Vegas is
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 3: a very short trip, so that's not gonna be a
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 3: huge deal really for Indiana.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: They're going to show up for this, you know.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: I mean Vegas does have the revenge modive here, but
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: I think there were more negatives against Vegas here than
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: there are against Indiana. So I have a slight lean
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 3: towards Indiana here. I don't agree with the market in
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: this one. I agree with the market in the other
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 3: three games. The market is leaning towards Vegas here fifty
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: per tickets, sixty nine percent of the cash on the
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 3: minus four and a half. But I would lean more
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 3: towards taking the points of Indiana there in Vegas. By
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 3: the way, they have not played well at home, so
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: that's another thing. They're seven and four at home now,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: which I guess isn't too bad, but they're not like
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: a They're not that dominant of a home team.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: And Indiana is at least decent on the road. So
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: there is that too.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 3: Do what you want with all that info, man, that's
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 3: the WNBA breakdown, and that's it, because there's no World
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: Cup until Tuesday when the semi finals start. I got
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: all four finalists, right, man, So my bracket got all
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 3: the final four right, and you know that I went
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 3: against the grain with the final two.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: I have England over Spain in my championship, but you know,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: it's it's not out of the question.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 3: France is obviously the favorite over Spain, but it's they're
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 3: not like a massive favorite, so Spain is not you know,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 3: Spain is not dead in the water. And England is
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 3: actually favored over Argentina, believe it or not, very slightly.
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 3: But that leads me to believe that I made the
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 3: right pick in my bracket at least because everybody is
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: picking Argentina. They're like basically everybody was picking Brazil to
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: get out of England's like quadrant there, so I'm already
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 3: ahead of the pack there, but having a team that
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 3: nobody's picking and they're actually favored slightly in England.
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: I like the way that that part of the bracket
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: sets up. Hopefully we can get it done.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm gonna actually make it a
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: play on the show or anything, but hopefully they can
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: at least get I don't think I will, but hopefully
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 3: we can at least get it done there for the
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 3: bracket purposes. Although I don't I don't really like England,
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: but I don't like Argentina either, so you know, whatever,
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: anyway that's gonna do it.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think I had any Oh, I was gonna mention.
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 3: Real quick the Vegas Aces and thin if it had
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 3: some weird stuff going on with the they had. Kennedy
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: Carter was like their sixth sixth woman if you will,
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: Like she was their first player off the bench and
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: she was scoring a lot like early in the season.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: She's off the team now.
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 3: They kicked her off the team due to conduct detrimental
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: detrimental to the team, Like she's like a clubhouse cancer
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 3: and she can't like this has been a problem with
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 3: her throughout his throughout his throughout her career. Well you
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: never know, but yeah, I think she's a woman. She's
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: had that issue throughout her career. Man Like, she is
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: not able to stick with any team because she's a
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 3: major locker room cancer. So Vegas kicked her off the team,
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: and no team has shown interest in picking her up,
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: even though she could score.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, somebody keep in mind with Vegas.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: But maybe it's addition by subtraction the fact that they
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: got rid of her.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, Vegas is still a really strong team. So
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: but yeah, just somebody keep in mind there. That's gonna
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 3: do it. Man, the play said in one more time,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: we got four here. Today we got the maybe too
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: obvious under in Philadelphia Detroit under seven in baseball. Hopefully
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 3: we can get that one done. It's it's a very
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 3: ace pitching matchup. Man.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: We got the Toronto Blue Jays in the.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: First five on the minus half run line, so they
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 3: need to be winning at that point.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: Come on, Gaussman, don't let me down this time. And
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: then we're on two w NBA games, both underdogs Toronto
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: plus the points. You can wait, like I said, and
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: see if a seven crops up, it might happen. And then,
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: cause you're the public's gonna be on New York, so
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: maybe it'll happen. And then you know, I'll do it too,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: and I'll score it with what I find basically for
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: the show purposes. And then Chicago plus nine and a
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: half is the other play that's gonna do it. Learn
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: a tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram, Like
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel. Here we hit five hundred. I
• 1:41:50
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• 1:41:54
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• 1:41:56
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• 1:41:57
  Speaker 3: Although if you watch the show, I think you'll get
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 3: some good information and hopefully it's entertaining enough content. Although
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: really it's only gonna appeal to people that really like
• 1:42:06
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• 1:42:11
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• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: In yuke on YouTube.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 3: Uh really really praying I can get my voice back
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: at some point. It's not been going well, dude. Patroon
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 3: dot com, slash and learn to Toad, you can get
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 3: some bonus yuke stuff there should probably start doing some
• 1:42:26
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• 1:42:30
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• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Everybody.
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: Let's get some wins today.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: Your name Steal means something to somebody. It's a show.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No, hold on,
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: hold on.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on, let me for you.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: That by horn, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: hold on, stay with me now