Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/24/26: Trump Iran Negotiation Fantasy, Insider Trading On Iran War, Pentagon Preps Boots On The Ground

Transcript

3/24/26: Trump Iran Negotiation Fantasy, Insider Trading On Iran War, Pentagon Preps Boots On The Ground · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: I'm an amazed to show for everybody today of Crystal
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: daby Doo.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: We've got some new reporting from Jeremy ska Hill about
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: what exactly is the truth behind these alleged negotiations that
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Trump touted between US and Iran and break that down
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: for you. Also treat a parsi digging into just how
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: much money Iran is actually making off of this conflict
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: that might be surprising to a lot of people.
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: Kind of reminds me a.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Little bit of the Russian Ukraine war situation, So break
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: that down. Revelations that apparently some people are getting very
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: rich off of Trump's market timed announcement yesterday, so and
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: you know, enforcement apparently doesn't exist anymore. So that's the
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: thing that's happening. Brandon Wikerd is going to join us
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: again to talk about the troops that are being moved
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: into the region and what they could be used for.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Top Israeli politician is pushing for annexation in Lebanon as
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: part of the Greater Israel project. This is all unfolding
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: against a backdrop of mass programs in the West Bank,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: horrifying scenes there, airport chaos as Trump blocks a TSA deal,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: And we're going to take a look at the use
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: of AI in the Iran war and also the just
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: bizarro world where two of the three leaders heads of
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: state here have been rumored to be dead and actually
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: just be AI. So you already can see this destabilization
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: of reality that's happening in real time.
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  Speaker 1: That's exactly right.
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  Speaker 2: All right, what's he at? My marital pride is on
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  Speaker 1: But he's had years. He's like a six start, you know.
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• 2:39
  Speaker 3: As Chrystl said, though, let's go ahead and start with
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: these so called negotiations.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Do they even really exist?
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: While our friend Jeremy Scahill over at drop site News
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: spend a lot of time speaking with the Iranians, doing
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: some reporting here's what he had to say.
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: The most breaking stuff I have for you is that
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: Trump today post on truth Social that there's been this
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: breakthrough that he's pausing his threat to bomb the Iranian
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: electrical grid and other energy infrastructure because there have been
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: these talks going on between the United States and Iran.
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: And Trump implies that he has some secret squirrel that
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: he's talking to in Iran, and he doesn't want to
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: name who it is because he doesn't want that person
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: to be killed. It's unclear does he mean by Israel
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: or by the Iranians, you know, But what I'm told
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: is that there have been no negotiations direct negotiations with
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: the United States, and that what the Iranian officials are
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: telling me is that every time a third country comes
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: to Iran and they say the United States wants to talk,
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: Iran says, let us explain to you our conditions. And
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: in short, what the Iranians are saying is that they
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: will not agree to the kind of ceasefire that took
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: place last June after the so called Twelve Day War,
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: because the Iranians view that as having been a gimmick
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: to buy the United States in Israel time to re
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: arm to reposition and then come back in with this
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: full blown war that they launched on February twenty eighth.
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: So they're saying they won't go for just a ceasefire
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: that doesn't have conditions attached to it. They also want
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: any cessation of the war not only to apply to Iran,
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: but to apply to two other fronts of battle, as
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: the Iranians see at Iraq as well as Lebanon, where
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: the Israelis are increasingly engaged in ground operations, very heavy bombing.
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: Has Blah, which Israel had said was wiped out, has
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: been launching dozens upon dozens of rockets every single day
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: into Israel. So they want those two countries also to
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: be party to this ceasefire deal. They're also saying that
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: they want reparations paid by the United States, and they
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: want Israel to pay, but they don't want Israel to
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: pay directly. They want that to happen through the United
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: States because they don't want to take anything directly from Israel.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Good update there from Jeremy on the negotiations, and he's
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: exactly right from everything that we've been able to figure out.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one and put this up
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: here on the screen. So basically, for the best we
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: can tell, here's what happened the last couple of days.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: Two days prior Sunday, very early morning our time, the Turks,
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: the Egyptians, and several other countries gathered in Egypt.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Diplomats from those countries.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: They were able to make contact with the Iranians, and
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: obviously they're also speaking to the United States. The Pakistanis
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: were party to these talks as well. The Turks in
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: particular have had a better relationship with the Iranians. They've
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: been talking quite a bit to several of the people
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: over there.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: They have been.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Reaching out to them about what potential peace deal would
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: actually look like.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: The Iranian line is very simple.
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: A cessation of all hostilities, not now, but forever, as in,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: we need a total and a final peace to this conflict. Second,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: we will demand some reparation of some kind, either in
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: payments or in sanctions relief as a result of this war.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: The United States line, the Egyptians and the Turks have
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: been calling the United States. This is what eventually caused
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Trump to Taco and to say that he was calling
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: and extending his five day deadline. Off the United States line.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: Remains today, no ballistic missiles, no regional proxies, no nuclear program. Now, remember,
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: on the nuclear program, they've already said that they're not
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: going to pursue a nuclear program. But on the ballistic
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: missile front, and especially on the regional proxy front, those
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: two it's a non starter. Regional proxy is already a
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: nebulous term.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: It means nothing. Well, let's talk about the ballistic missile.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, really think about this.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: You are in a war and the other side says, well,
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: we will stop shooting you if you just give up
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: all your bullets.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? All right?
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: And by the way, the bullet that's the only credible
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: deterrent that you actually have, the only ability to extend
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: and project power, have some deterns, have to be able
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: to extract some cost from the enemy and its allies.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Would you give up your missile program five years of
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: a missile basically giving up not only missiles but all
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: of your production.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Who would be stupid enough to sign up for that deal?
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: Oh and by the way, you've been bombed twice under
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: the cover of diplomacy. So this is where things now
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: currently stand. Now, a lot of things could change, So
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: let's put a three up here on the screen. I
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: do want to be clear, there are efforts right now
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: by the Pakistanis. So here's from dropsite. Pakistan is emerging
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: as the key back channel. They have positioned themselves as
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: the central intermediary between Washington and Tehran, various outlets confirming
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: active efforts to facilitate the conflict. The Financial Times the
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: senior Pakistani officials have been relaying messages between Tehran and Witkoff,
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: with the Prime Minister speaking several times with the President
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: of Iran as well. Reuters had said that the Vice President,
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: Steve Wikoff and Jared Kushner would expect to meet them
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: in Islamabad potentially this week, but again there's been no confirmation.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: There are people who are out there posting jets that are.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: On their way totally wrong.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: I actually confirmed it. It had nothing to do with that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: It was a Pentagon official, Bridge Cole. He was on
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: his way to India. He's not going to Pakistan's pre
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: scheduled trip already had been announced. Has nothing to do
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: with these potential negotiations. So that's where we stand.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: As of right now.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: We are nowhere closer to any sort of a peace deal,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: and in fact, what you really see is a desperation
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: on Trump's behalf on Trump's on Trump's side to portray
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: the reality of this while giving nothing on the back end.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: And that's why I think setting the stage for this
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: while there's this kabuki going on to try and prop
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: up market prices and crude oil futures, while thousands of
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: ground troops remain on their way to the region, which
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: we'll talk about with Brandon. What have we learned now
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: under Venezuela and under Iran, follow the carrier, strike groups,
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: follow the troops. That normally is the precursor to military action,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: no matter what nonsense that he's saying out there in public.
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: So I just want to be very clear, there does
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: not appear to be any breakthrough whatsoever in these talks.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Iranians are sending back here are what
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: our demands are. And as much as you might think
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: the Iranian demands sound delusional things like reparations, their demands
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: are actually much less delusional than the American demands are
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: at this point because from the Iranian perspective, they're like,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: we're winning this war, Like you just had to taco.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: You threatened to blow up our entire electrical grid. We
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: were like, all right, bet then we'll blow up you know,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: various assets in the region.
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: And Trump, just before the markets was opened, was like, well,
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: let's pill.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Us press pause for five days now. I'm continue to
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: be of the opinion, and I think Saga, based on
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: his commis just now, is also of the opinion that
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of this is just buying time for Trump
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: to you know, amass these additional forces in the region
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: once again using a lleged diplomacy. This diplomacy doesn't even exist.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: It's fictional diplomacy as a ruse in order to you know,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: pursue whatever next escalation he wants to pursue.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: And then meantime, by the way, the war is ongoing.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: It's not like, you know, Israel struck within Iran yesterday
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: there were and then Iran struck back. There were blackouts
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: reported in Kuwait. They were able to hit inside of
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Tel Aviv. So this war continues. You know, while this
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: supposed cease five day ceasefire once again time for the
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: markets to close on Friday, I think we've seen once again,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: you know, the thing that released does scare Trump is
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: the bond markets, and that was a big problem, probably
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: even a larger issue for him in the immediate term
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: than the oil price of oil per barrel. So that's
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: where we are. And here's the other piece I go.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: I want to go ahead and put a nine up
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: on the screen. This is from treats of Parsi, who
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: did some digging into the war economy for Iran, and
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: what he find may really surprise you, he says. Energy
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: industry insider in Iran tells me the following, and it
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: is stunning. Before the war, Iran produced just shy of
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: one point one million barrels of oil per day and
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: sold it at sixty five dollars per barrel minus an
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: eighteen dollars discount, so roughly forty seven dollars.
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: Today it produces one point.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Five million barrels a day, so more, and sells it
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: at one hundred and ten dollars with only a two
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: to four dollar discount.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: So they're producing more and they're selling.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: It at a vastly elevated price. This, he says, does
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: not include petrochemical sales that not only have increase, but
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: are now being sold to a larger set of customers.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Compared to before the war. Moreover, Iran is receiving payments
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: through new mechanism that bypass the UAE which were set
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: up after the June war. In essence, and this is
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: really important to understand, Trump and Israel's war has ended
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief. That means Iran
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: is all the less incentivized to end the war unless
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: the agreement provides Iran with formal sanctions relief. So far,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: to the contrary of the idea that they were going
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: to decimate Iran's economy and it's going to be a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: disaster and they're going to have all this economic pain, No,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: they're making more money, more money because of the war.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: And of course, you know, obviously they continue to control
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Horror Moves. And apparently what was not anticipated,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, Trump didn't anticipate they would close the Straight
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: of hor Moves at all. But certainly what was not
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: gained out and anticipated appears to be the fact that
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: they'd say, no, no, we're not actually closing the Straight
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: of Horror Moves.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: We're just closing it for you.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: We're still going to sell our oil and if you
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: want to come through and you want to pay our
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: two million dollar toll, and you want this to be
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: denominated in Chineseyan, come on down, We're happy to have
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: your business. And so this has created a very unlikely
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: dynamic here where, you know, again, in terms of putting
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: pressure on the Iranians to get them for some sort
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: of concessions from them, we are in the total opposite
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: land right now. The US would have to make some
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: serious concessions right now if they wanted to end this war,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: and I'm not even sure it's possible at this point,
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: because I mean, number one, if Trump just like withdrawed
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: in humiliation, it would basically be the end of the
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: American empire, you know, total humility, to certainly be the
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: end of his presidency. But number two, Iran needs those
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: guarantees that we're not going to be back here again
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: in the near future, and that part of how they
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: get that guarantee is by exacting a severe price so
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: that not just Trump, but every future American president understands, oh,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: this is not a good person.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Is part of the problem.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: We're locked in a real battle of bad incentives because
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: what you could actually hear and treat his voice yesterday
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: he's afraid that the Iranians think that they're riding too
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: high right now, Yeah, that they're going to keep president.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: And let's be honest, they are right and high. So
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: just this morning, India's Reliance confirmed one of the large
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: it's like, one of the largest industrial conglomerates in India.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: They just purchased five million Indian barrels of Iranian formerly
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: sanctioned oil.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: A bunch of ships.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: That just passed through the Straits of hor Moves straight
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: on their way to the New Delhi. All right, and
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: so the Indians and again, you know, look, it's not
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: just my heritage. I just respect the way these people
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: conduct business. They're like, look, we're not with America, we're
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: not with Russia. We're in it for us. There's cheap
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: oil on the market. We're gonna buy it.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: What they what did they do?
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: They're not party to the war. They called the Iranians up.
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: Modi's like, my dear friend. The president of Iran, every
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: leader is his dear friend. He calls them up and
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: he's like, hey, I need my ships through, I need oil.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: They're like, okay, no worries.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Although I think the US also the US also gave
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: them the green lights.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Oh that too.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: But I'm saying, if you put all this together, you
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: can clear you can clearly, very see here that other
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: countries are exploiting and going end loops, you know, to
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: the extent that they can around the United States. So
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: what does Iran feel. Well, they're in the pole position.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: They're able to command the straight they're able to demand.
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: In some cases there are reports of people paying two
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: million dollars per passage, which is approximately one dollar per barrel.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Easy.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: They'll be able to reclaim that in an insurance surcharge
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: later on down the line. They actually feel more emboldened.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: If you're the IRGC, you've established some credible deterrence. You've
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: gotten rid of this idiot Supreme leader eighty six year old.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: He was always holding us back. Now we have our
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: new guy who injured whatever. Basically, who's controlled?
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, the IRGC is running the show, of course.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: And here's the other thing.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: What have the people been telling us now for years
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: the IRGC are corrupt goons while the rest of the
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: country starves. They get rich as treated. They're getting richer,
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: They're more rich than ever before. They're more in control
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: of the company, or of the country. They control all
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: the political facets and they're getting filthy rich. Now off
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: these oil sanctions, would you surrender in that snart Now listen,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: they could be destroyed by a US ground invasion, but
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: that's coming on later. And then, just to show you
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: all how like the control that they have, let's put
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: a four up here on the screen. So the speaker
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: of the Iranian Parliament, I'm not.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Going to try and pronounce his name, I apologize.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: They are the Israelis and the US were saying that
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: he was the person they're negotiating with. Immediately after those
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: reports break, here's what he puts out. Our people demand
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: the complete humiliating punishment of the aggressors. All officials stand
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: firmly behind their leader and people.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Until this goal is achieved.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: intended to manipulate financial oil markets to escape the quagmire
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: in which America and.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Israel are trapped.
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: So it actually does appear as if they have you know, look,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: maybe he took a phone.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Call or not.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: We have no idea, right but what we do know
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: is that he's at the very least pressured internally for
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: him to actually come out and deny this, and you
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: know why, we know some of this Trump let it
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: kind of slip. Trump was asked on the tarmac yesterday,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: who are you talking to? He says, A top person,
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: and I can't tell you who it is. I don't
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: want them to be killed. Let's put a six and
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: let's take a listen.
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: Speaking.
• 16:12
  Speaker 7: A top person. Don't forget, we've wiped out the leadership
• 16:17
  Speaker 7: phase one, Phase two, and largely phase three, but we're
• 16:21
  Speaker 7: dealing with the man who I believe is the most
• 16:24
  Speaker 7: respected and the leader.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: You know, it's a little tough.
• 16:28
  Speaker 7: They've wiped out. We've wiped out everybody.
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: No, not the supreme leader.
• 16:35
  Speaker 7: Nobody wants to be that. Nobody wants that job right now.
• 16:38
  Speaker 7: You know, nobody's exactly looking forward to being the head
• 16:42
  Speaker 7: of that particular country. But perhaps you won't be able
• 16:45
  Speaker 7: to solve that problem.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: So he says he can't tell you who it is
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: because he doesn't want them to be killed. Now, they
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: might be killed by.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: The r they also can be killed by the Israelis.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Right, so clear there's a lot of people who might
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: be killing them. The second thing is that he's obviously
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: flailing on the straight of Hormuz. So, for example, somebody
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: asked him, he said, who's going to be in control
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: of the straits of our moose? Someone says it'll be
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: He says, it'll be jointly controlled by who. He said,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: maybe me and the next Iotola. Let's take a listen
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: to that.
• 17:15
  Speaker 7: That would be opened very soon. If this works, to
• 17:21
  Speaker 7: control the be jointly controlled.
• 17:26
  Speaker 6: Maybe me, maybe me, me and.
• 17:29
  Speaker 7: The Iyahtola, whoever the Ietolla is, whoever the next Dietella.
• 17:33
  Speaker 7: Look and there will also be a form of a
• 17:37
  Speaker 7: very serious form of her regime. James, look at Venezuela.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: How well that's working out.
• 17:42
  Speaker 7: We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and
• 17:45
  Speaker 7: with the relationship between the president elect and us.
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: And maybe we find somebody like that.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: And still has Venezuela fantasies.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: After the war continues to spiral, says MEMI, the next Diatola,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: So what is that? I don't acknowledge the current Iotola.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: So I might have to kill the current Iotola. These
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: things can only be accomplished through massive ground force, invage
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: nuclear weapons. I mean, I hate to say all these things,
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: but there's just no other option like if you have
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: the the only off ramp is basically surrender, which I mean,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: as you said, his psyche, not just his psyche.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Think about it like something I've been thinking about a lot.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Is what Joe Kent told me is one of the
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: reasons he resigned to trying to put pressure is he said,
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: I've been inside and I know how the scentcom machine
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: gets rolling. And what he means by that is that
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: there are not guys the Joint Staff planning forces. They
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: don't view themselves as political, but they have lived for
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: this in a lot of ways. So when the President
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: is like, I need all options on the table, they're like, oh,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: they've been working on this for forty years. Then we
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: start pulling stuff off the shelf eighty second Airborne Marine
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: Expeditionary Force, and once that stuff starts to get into
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: the system the machinery, think about how hard it is
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: to roll it back because now they're like, well, we've
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: got to finish job.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: It's a military objective. Nobody ever sits back.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: This is the job of the president and his advisors
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: to be like, is any of this a good idea?
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Should we be doing this at all?
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: And that machine as we see the carriers still on
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: their way, the marine expeditionary forces converging eighty second airborne
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: planes that are all coming over. Once that stuff starts,
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: it's very hard not to use it because now it's
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: in theater. Might as well be an option you takes,
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: like I talked about Kennedy yesterday, a supreme act of
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: courage and genuine intelligence to say, no, we're not doing
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: any of this. This is madness. We don't see rep
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: right now in the situation room. So if you take
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: that rhetoric, you take this stuff that's all on its way,
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: what other conclusion can you draw? Same with Iranians, they're two,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: they're so confident right now, it's scary. I mean, and
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, don't take my words for it.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: Take treatis like he is genuinely worried. They're going to
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: overplay their hands and it will lead to their total
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: and complete annihilation, to their detriment and to ours.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: It'll be bad for everybody who's involved.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, he just in all his comments and in
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: his decision making, he really has this like childlike understanding
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: of the world.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: You know, they leaked to Politico.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: I guess even Barack reviewed wasn't buying this bullshit that
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: the gollibaf the guy who you know, we put up
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: his his tweet earlier, and that Trump was sort of
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: alluding like, oh, we've got a top guy that we're
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: talking to, and of course they're completely denying it. Anyway,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: somebody leaked to Politico like, oh, he's a hot option
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: right now. It's like, this is not Venezuela. Number one.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Number two, you're just completely full of shit. Number three.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: You think you're just gonna like swap out some characters
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: in the old entire country of Iran with some like
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: ninety three million people, it's going to be yours.
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's so insane.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: And this has been apparently the thinking from the beginning
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: of Trump of like, oh, if we just murder the Ayatola,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: then it'll all be ours and we can play him
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: like puppets and do whatever we want. The military knew
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: that was not going to be the case, but he
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: didn't want to listen to them because he had his
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: own idea about like, well, it worked in Venezuela, and
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Bbe tells me it'll work here, so we're just gonna
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: gonna go for it. I mean, it truly is such
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: a like kindergarten level unders of the world. And that
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: comes out too when he's like, oh, maybe me and
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: the ayah toola are going to control the straight of
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: hooe moves together. The Iranians put out a meme did
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: you see this? In response Sagur that was like, you know,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: it was like a car where you have the normal
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: steering wheel and then you have the kids steering wheel
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: there that obviously doesn't do anything, where it's like, oh,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: he's pretending to drive the car, etc. I mean, just
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: complete mockery of this man because the whole thing is
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: so stupid and so insane. But the bottom line is today,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: you know, Trump is actually not really in a position
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: to say when this war ends or how it ends.
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: That is on Iran and it's on Israel.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: He has seeded so much control to the Israelis that
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: you know, if even if he wants to end the
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: war today, and I think it's possible he does want
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: to end the war today, the Iranians get to say,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: and the Israelis because of our weakness and our desired,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: our decision to seed so much of our foreign policy
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: to them, they get to say as well, and that's
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: why this thing is such an incredible intractable mess heading
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: towards quad.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: And why we shouldn't have gotten into it in the
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: first place. But five up there on the screen, this
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: was from the Prime Minister of Israel, he says. Earlier today,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: I spoke with President Trump. Believes there's an opportunity to
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: leverage the tremendous achievements to achieve to realize the goals
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: of the war through an agreement that will safeguard our
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: vital interest But he continues, just a few days ago,
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: we eliminated two more nuclear scientists. We are still active.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstances. At
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: the same time, we are going to continue to strike
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: in both Iran and Lebanon. We are smashing the missile program,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: the nuclear program. We continue to deal severe blows with Hezbola,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: and as we'll show you all later, the strikes continue
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: unabashed and completely. So as where things stand right now,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: the negotiations don't appear to be going anywhere, and if
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: they do meet, the two sides are very very far apart.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Vice
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: President would be in Islamabad sometime this week, also on
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: the Steeve Wickcough Front, Well, what did the Iranians say?
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Why would we trust you? With you twice we got
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: bombed both. I do not trust you period.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: And as Jeremy and Ryan remember when Wikoff and all
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: of them were trying to convey the message that their
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: messages were being sent. Yeah, just because they're being sent
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: doesn't mean that they're being replied to. They've never released
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: any evidence that the Iranians actually responded to anything. If anything,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: this story is confirmation that the Iranians will not talk
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: to the US because the Turks and the Egyptians and
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: everybody else is starting to get involved. And I want
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: to put this up here at the top. We're on
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: the brink of actual regional conflict. So, for example, the
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: Saudis are leaking now to the Wall Street Journal. They said,
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: one more strike on the critical infrastructure or water we're
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: getting in the war, We're going to start striking. The
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: golf Arabs have all been leaking to all of these
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: different outlets saying that they now agree with the idea
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: of regime change because their fundamental security is threatened, which
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: means everybody's incentives is for longer, more protracted war.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Do you want to go to war?
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: Do you want to do you want to send Americans
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: to die for the Dubai real estate market, okay? Or
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: for OnlyFans girls to be able to live comfortable lives
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: and high rises in Dubai, or fitness influencers or too
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: much losers to make it in the United States to
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: make it over there. I'm good, actually all right, and
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: that's what they want for us or the dron compound.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: No, okay, we're good.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: But that's that's where the incentive structure is for every
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: single person, including the Iranians, which is why, honestly, I
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: just think it's this is genuine like nightmare.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you ain at this point, they
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: they almost have to get some.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: They're screwed.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: I'm already they're they're brand Dubai's brand, Abu Dabi's brand
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: as like you know, the playgrounds for the rich and
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: you know, almost like a little car vound from the
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: rest of the tunnels.
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Of the region that's dead. It's over.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: We've all seen the videos of like your airport on
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: fire and you know, bombs land a or drones hitting
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: luxury high rise buildings. Who who of our global elite
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: is going to choose Dubai as their location now? And
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: that's their whole thing, Like that is really where they've
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: staked their claim. So unless they can you know, completely
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: overturn the government in Iran and have some I don't
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: know where the whole year or some other puppet government
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: that they feel totally comfortable with, it's not coming back.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: So and again this is you know, part of Israel's
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: goal in all of this is they you know, they
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: knew this idea it'll be a four day war and
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: it'll be or they knew that was nonsense that they
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: were selling to Trump, right, and he was dumb enough
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: to buy it, and you know, foolish and arrogant and
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: vain enough to surround himself with people who wouldn't tell
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: him the hard truth and shut on anyone who might
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: have told him the hard truth, as evidence by you know,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Joe Kent being completely shut out of any of the
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: conversations and the debates leading up to this war.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: So you know, so now.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: You've got this intractable conflict that just continues to grow,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: and Israel's happy to have all of these countries in
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: that is exactly what they want. That's why it, you know,
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: appears that they may have been involved in some ful
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: slime flag attacks to make those goalfareb states feel even
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: more under thread. But I mean, make no doubt about it,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Iran is striking within those countries as well, because they're like, look,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: you're complicit, You're hosting these bases. Attacks are being launched
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: from your soil towards US. So sorry, fair game. That's
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: you know, that's where we are. It really is every
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: week that goes by inching war and war towards total
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: and complete war. And this is also the Pandora's box
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: that's been opened by Gaza and the you know, the
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: barbarism that just is accepted.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Now, yeah, that's so bad. Let's get to insider trading.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: Turning now to insider trading a very important story that
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: we absolutely cannot just let slide. So we recall yesterday
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: we talked a lot about Trump market manipulation. It turns
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: out that market manipulation definitely worked out for several people,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: but we don't know any of their names.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Let's start with the first one. Let's put it up
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: here on the screen.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: Here we have from the Financial Times traders placed five
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: hundred and eighty million in oil bets ahead of Donald
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: from social media post on Iran talks.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Is that normal? No, Apparently it's not.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Fifteen minutes before the Trump post touting productive talks, sixty
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: two hundred and Brent and West Texas intermediate futures contracts
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: change hands between six forty nine am and six fifty
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: am New York time on Monday, a quarter of an
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: hour ahead of the president's posts. Five hundred and eighty
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: million dollars was the notional volume trading volumes left at
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: the exact same time twenty seven seconds before six to
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: fifty am. Futures tracking the S and P five hundred
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: jumped in price moments after the oil trade volumes rising
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: significantly during that timeframe. Trump's announcement at seven oh four
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: triggered a sharp sell off across the global energy markets
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: and jumps in the S and pipe P five hundred
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: stock index and European equities as investors dialed back bets
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: on a prolonged conflict. The well trimed trades echo the
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: flurry of large, highly profitable bets made on poly market
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: for the timing of the US attacks in recent months.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: On Iran and Venezuela. The White House has denied that
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: they had anything to do with this. The only focus
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: of President Trump and Trump administration is doing what's best
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: for the American people.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Hmm.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: Well, it just turns out though that again it's not
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: just the financial time talking about up to the next
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: one who CNBC confirming and actually were the first people
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: to report this, that the volume in the stock and
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: oil future surge right before the minutes of Trump's market
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: turning posts exactly at that six fifty five am s
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: and P five hundred E mini futures which recorded a
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: sharp and isolated.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Jump in volume.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: So we don't know the exact the exact profit that
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: these people have made, some say could be well over
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: north of a billion dollars for what the eventual bet
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: turned out. Of course, the SEC has not responded for
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: comment about whether we'll be initiating an investigation the CFTC.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: So these are the macro bets, but there were hundreds
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: of other bets made in polymarket like and other prediction
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: markets which were able to trace, would show some level
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: of insider knowledge traders at the individual level booking a
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: million dollars or so in these people booking billions potentially,
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, and who knows, you know, this is only
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: what we know here in our equities markets around the world.
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: We have no idea what those countries might be looking into.
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: And it's like the Blazer obvious.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: These are the people who we just you know, did
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: it obviously? Who knows what long term contracts and other
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: people that have out there, And you know, we can't
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: let this go because I think that this demonstrates a
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: couple of things. This is an undemocratic war. The Congress
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: did not vote for it, the people do not support it.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: It continues to be advanced on behalf of Israel and
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: then some people here in the United States government, and
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: at the very same time that they are explicitly timing
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: many of their war Can you imagine trying to schedule
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: D Day around when the S and P five hundred open?
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: What do we do?
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: You know?
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: And that's the point is that this is not a
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: war that we're all bought into. It's a war which
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: is being waged almost honestly, directly against the interests of Americans.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: On my way here to work, every billboard, what am
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: I looking at? Three ninety nine a gallon three ninety
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: nine a gown, three ninety four gallons, four to oh
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: one a gallon. I mean, this stuff, it's brutal for
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: everybody who is living this at the diesel level, what
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: is it now, five point fifty something like that. You
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: got people all over the country who's you know, are
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: getting broken in a single month. We were just looking
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: this morning four oh one k withdraws or at an
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: all time high.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: It's just mortgage rates at seven mortgage rates.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: I mean it's like every every level across the book,
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: your pocketbook things are being hurt by this war on
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: top of our strategic position, everything else and not you know,
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: that doesn't even bring in the lives of American services
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: thirteen already.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we've been killed. It's a nightmare. And these people
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: are getting.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: Filthy and then dad insults of injury. You've got insiders
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: who are making bank and this is just routine at
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: this point. How many times has Trump come out with
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: some market moving truth social that minutes before it comes out,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: someone's trading the you know, making big and unusual bets
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: either on polymarket or on the stock market that just
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: happened to pan out, happen to come just before he
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: makes the announcement. I mean, you'd be a fool not
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: to see it. At this point, it's utterly discussed. I mean,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: the stock market is so beyond fake. It's just like
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: a playground for insiders to siphon off even more wealth
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: for themselves at the expense of literally everyone else. I mean,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: to your points are, I'm just looking at the national
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: average now today, the national average for a tank of
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: gas regular unleaded three ninety eight, and for diesel we're
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: looking at five thirty five. And you know, as much
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: as you directly feel that regular unleaded at the gas pump,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: that diesel is the part that really triggers goes throughund
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: the entire economy, and very quickly, because obviously that's what
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: all the that's what all the truckers are having to pay,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: and that's going to get passed on. They're going to
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: get squeezed, and then you're gonna get squeezed. So it's disgusting.
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: And let me add this. The us SEC's X enforcement
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: chief clashed with bosses over Trump cases before leaving, according
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: to sources.
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: This is from Reuters.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: So I saw someone flag on Twitter that this enforcement
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: chief over at the SEC had just resigned earlier this month,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: right before. This level of insider trading is clearly happening
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: in conjunction with the war, and so Reuters was able
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: to get the scoop about what was actually going on here,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: and lo and behold, it was over a lack of enforcement,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: especially with cases that have ties to Trump and the
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Trump family. So Reuters reports the us SEC's top enforcement official,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: who left abruptly last week, had clashed with agency leaders
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: over the direction of its enforcement program, including the handling
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: of cases with ties to Trump and his family. According
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: to three people familiar, SEC Enforcement Division Director Margaret Ryan
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: resigned last Monday after just over six months on the job.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Writers was first to report her resignation. Email seen by
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Roters to not say why she was leaving, and she
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: declined to comment. Two of the people said Ryan wanted
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for and other misconduct,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: including in cases that touch the president's circle, but face
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: resistance from SEC Chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: political appointees. Of course, they deny it. One case they
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: say that spark tension, in particular involved cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin's Sun,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: a major backer of Trump's family's World Liberty financial venture.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: That's their crypto grift. Another involved Tesla boss Elon Musk,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: big donor of course the Trump's campaign, who briefly served
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: as a president's special advisor.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: So there you go.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Top enforcement official wanted to actually attempt to do some
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: portion of her job. The head of the SEC was like, no,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: we're not doing that, at least certainly not where the
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Trump family or Trump donors are concerned. And she said, Okay,
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: I'm on a here. I mean, this is the state
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: of the country right now. This is the state or
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: the lack of enforcement where you know, white collar crime,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: especially if you are a Trump donor or a Trump
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: family member or Trump associate, is just legal. It's just
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: legal now. And then they want to tell you all
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: of oh my god, the smallian fraud blah blah blah.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: The biggest fraudsters are in the White House. There's zero
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: doubt about it. Especially on a dollar for dollar base.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: It would be a lot easier to talk about smelling
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: fraud if you weren't partning fraudsters at the very sent and.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Or protecting them and personally committing frauds at the same time.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Who knows. Yeah, exactly, that's the problem.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Also, Yeah, I just want to say that you guys know,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: SEC records can go have a look back period. Right
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: one day, somebody's actually going to look in this, and
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: I hope somebody goes to jail.
• 34:24
  Speaker 6: I really do.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Let's go for B three. Put this up here on
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the screen.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: The current market reaction for what we are, what we
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: are seeing as of right now, what it currently looks
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: like is that some of the S and P again,
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: remember we talked about this stuff early in the morning,
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: S and P five hundred futures are pulling back after
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Monday's rally as oil prices are rebounding. The Iran conflict continues.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: If I look again, just right now, the Brent futures
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: hovering right around one hundred dollars per barrel, and I
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: think West Texas is roughly a round ninety, so it's
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: going to be a little bit more manageable, and you
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: will likely see a pullback in gas price in midway
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: week and potentially on Sunday. But of course, if there
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: is signed actual well apparently the way that spy I'm
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: not talking about like forever, like for a couple of days,
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: so that's apparently the way that works. Again, not fully
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: an oil genius or anything myself, but I've been trying
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: to do some reading. Let's put be four up there
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: on the screen. It's from Chevron, and these are the stuff.
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: This is the stuff where people should really freak out,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: because when the Chevron CEO says around more impact not
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: fully priced in, and that traders have scant information, you
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: should think, hey, doesn't he have more information because he
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: runs one of the world's largest energy companies. The CEO cautioned,
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: it will take time to restart production that has been
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: dialed back and to repair damage facilities. Let me just
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: read you directly what he said. There are very real
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: physical manifestations of the closure of the straits of her
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: moves that are working their way around the world through
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: the system that I do not think are fully priced
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: into the future's curve on oil. What he talks about,
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: specifically is that the market is trading on scant information
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: and perception. The physical supply of oil is tighter than
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: the futures contracts suggests. We've got a lot of oil
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: and gas now that is not flowing into the market.
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: There really is a difference in terms of physical supply
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: versus prior incidents. So he keeps saying, and every oil
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: analyst that we listen to is like, the market futures
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: are totally pricing in some sort of taco, some sort
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: of event that if you look at the physical market
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: doesn't add up. We talked to yes, I think a
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: few maybe last week, remember about California barrels trading for
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: like one hundred and forty dollars. We talked about how
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: physical crude oil in Dubai or in Uae that was
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: coming out was trading at like one sixty and that's
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: way out of step with where the current futures prices are.
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: And the reason for that is that's the physical oil
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: that's actually there right now as opposed to what the
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: future bet is on some sort of resumption of flow.
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: But all of the people who are actually in the
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: know don't seem to think that that's going to happen. Yeah,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: So for example, let's put United Airlines up here on
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: the screen. This is Scott Kirby, the CEO of United.
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: He put out a memo this was last week. We
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: planned for oil to hit one hundred and seventy five
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: dollars a barrel and staying above one hundred next year
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: as the industry faces the worst shock since COVID.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Obviously that matters for jet fuel.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: And he by the way, when he says one hundred
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: and seventy five barrel, he's not talking about jet fuel.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: He's talking about actual crude oil, which means jet fuel
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: would be trading much higher than that. I mean, one
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: seventy five barrel, that's like six dollars a gallon and
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: staying at one hundred over the next year. Even one
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: hundred is a lot, that's right now, So for the
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: next year, we're all signing up for four dollars a gallon.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: That's I mean, come on, that's that's really tough.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: What I was looking at recently, just this morning, is
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: that for every ten dollars increase in the price of
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: oil for a barrel, it's roughly point three too point
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: four in terms of its increase on inflation. So I
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: think we've already had orders of magnitude more intent so
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: we could be hit five percent inflation. Yeah, so literally
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: nineteen seventies energy shock level stuff.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in terms of people are saying in
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: terms of the like barrel production loss already it's bigger
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: than the seventies energy shocks. But you know, Rory Johnston,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: the analyst we've had on before, he made a good point.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: He's like, listen, so much of the world now can
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it, but
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: not oil, at least not for long. Horrmo's flow still
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: has not resumed. Every day we're shedding more oil from
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: the system. That'll catch up. Can't jawbone ten to fifteen
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: million barrels per day stock draws. So he's making the point.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: You're like, yeah, a lot of our economy is fake
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: and based on vibes, like Tesla's valuation as one example.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: But oil is an actual, like thing that exists. It
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: is a commodity. It is a physical good that exists,
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: and you can't just like post your way through it,
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: even though that's exactly what Trump is trying to do
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: at this point and having some success. I mean, I
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: think the you know, Chevron Ceo was like, you know,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: they're really not part in just how much disruption. I
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: think he is correct. I think Rory is correct and
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: saying essentially the same thing. This is going to hit
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: at some point and is going to get worse. You
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: can't just true social your way out of the problem
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: that you.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Have created, and think about all the downstream effects. So
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: oil is high, which means demand destruction, pullback, high inflation,
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: high interest rates, stagflation once again, high unemployment rate, high
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: mortgage rates.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: That could go on for a long time.
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: Pullback in AI, ten percent correction in the stock market,
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent correction for the tech industry, mass layoffs across
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: the US economy. I'm just giving you the whole nineteen
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: seventies playbook. And remember the only way they solved it
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: was nineteen percent interest rates, which I mean that scarred
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: a generation forever in terms of how they think about finances,
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: and I mean banks, like literally the Federal Reserve. It
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: changed the entire outlook for an entire people. A student
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: debt would climb, debt servicing, education, I mean the downstream,
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: fertilized I don't even talked about fertilizer, helium, semiconductors, the
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: global supply chain, potential famine, food crisis in the Third World,
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh already having gas shortages because they
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: all have cooking gas. I mean you know this, and
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: so like over here. Our problems are just going to
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: be economic in the rest of the world, like we're
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: talking about life and death being able and if this extends.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Remember during COVID with Biden, we would often talk about
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: like there's a significant portion of the country I think
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: in the northeast or like a way up north where
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: they still use like heating oil or gas, and that
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: spike like destroyed their heating bills and pocketbooks for a
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: long time.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: So, I mean, you know, I don't want to scare people.
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: I'm just I'm pointing out, like why it's so imperative
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: to pull the war back as soon as possible, But
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: if these people are too believed, it doesn't even look
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: like that's even possible.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to be in some four dollars a.
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: Game, Like it seems like the base case is four
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: bucks a gallon now for over a year, which is
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, really just devastating.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: Well, luckily, the economy was really great before this, so people,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I'm sure have a lot of cushion. They're feeling very
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: confident they'll be able to weather the.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Store, right, very true. All right, let's move on joining
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: us now.
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: Is Brandon Wiker, great friend of the show and an
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: excellent military Analyst's good to see you.
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: Sir, thanks for having me as always.
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: All right, Brandon, let's jump right into it. All of
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: us have been on ground troop deployment.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Watch. Let's go and put this one up here on
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: the screen.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: New York Times saying that the Pentagon is now weighing
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: the deployment of airborne troops for the Iran war. They
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: focused specifically on the eighty second Airborne, whose training exercise
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: had previously been canceled. Maybe you could break down for
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: us some of the military speak here. It's currently'd be
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: about a brigade of three thousand soldiers capable of deploying
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: anywhere in the world for eighteen hours. What would that
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: type of operation look like? What should we look for?
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Are their movements that are already on the way. What's
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: going on?
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: Well, clearly this is if you if you contextualize this
• 42:03
  Speaker 6: with the marine, the Marine expeditionary units. I believe two
• 42:06
  Speaker 6: are being deployed or have been deployed to the region.
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: This to me looks like the administration's thinking is, well,
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: we're gonna have a small, light and fast force that
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: will break into one of the targets along the coastline UH,
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: and they will basically overrun whatever defenses are there, capture
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: the land UH, and then be able to sort of
• 42:32
  Speaker 6: establish a foothold there and then they can flow in
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: heavier forces. The forces I don't think this would be
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: a I might be wrong about this, but I don't
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: believe this is a prelude to invasion of the heart
• 42:44
  Speaker 6: of Iran. I think this is an attempt to establish
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: what's known as sea control. You know, basically, they're gonna
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: they're gonna take one of these islands along the coast UH,
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: and then they think they'll be able to capture it
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: and then build up missile presence there and they'll be
• 43:00
  Speaker 6: able to basically interdict any kind of Iranian attempts to
• 43:04
  Speaker 6: intervene with the natural flow of shipping through the Strait
• 43:08
  Speaker 6: of hor Moves or into the Strait of Hormus. And
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: I just got to tell Y Saga, this whole thing
• 43:13
  Speaker 6: is KOOKI talk. This is crazy town level stuff, because
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: eighty second Airborne is wonderful, and I've I've talked to
• 43:21
  Speaker 6: those guys before, but this is not gonna work the
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: way they think it is, nor will it work for
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: the marines twenty five hundred or five thousand, whatever number
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: they're throwing around. Now, it's sort of been changing off
• 43:31
  Speaker 6: and on. This is not gonna work. You need to,
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: you know, the Klauswitzian model. You need to mass a
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: lot of force to just to take one of those islands.
• 43:41
  Speaker 6: And oh, by the way, our marines are eighty second
• 43:44
  Speaker 6: airborne guys. As the Russians learned in the first few
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: days of their war in Ukraine, They're not going to
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: be facing it's not gonna be man on man. It's
• 43:51
  Speaker 6: not even gonna be tank on man. It's gonna be
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: man arrives on island, finds it kind of deserted. It's quiet. Oh,
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: it's kind of nice. But oh, guess what, there's eighty
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: eight thousand. Shah had drones coming your way in waves,
• 44:03
  Speaker 6: and then the missiles and then the hypersonics. This is
• 44:06
  Speaker 6: not gonna end well, this is gonna be Gallipoli from
• 44:08
  Speaker 6: World War One, and it will end in US retreating
• 44:11
  Speaker 6: in you know, humiliation. And I think that's when we
• 44:14
  Speaker 6: start talking about nuclear weapons.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Do you think there's a possibility What you said is
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: horrifying and terrifying, and I want to acknowledge that. Do
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: you think it's a possibility. There's a possibility. We're being
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: sort of syoped on this carg Island idea. I'm just
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: hearing too many leaks about it, too much in the
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: press about it. It seems like we're signaling too hard
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: that that's what we're intending to do there.
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: Yeah, And actually there was a YouTube account, I think
• 44:37
  Speaker 6: it was called History Legends, which is this Ukrainian military guy,
• 44:40
  Speaker 6: and he had a very interesting video a couple of
• 44:42
  Speaker 6: days ago breaking down the three possible locations. The one
• 44:46
  Speaker 6: he thinks, and this is what I was thinking, because
• 44:48
  Speaker 6: it was one of our first targets we blew up
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: in the air war. Is this naval base the Iranians have.
• 44:54
  Speaker 6: It's sort of in the Gulf of Oman or off
• 44:56
  Speaker 6: that coastline, so it's technically closer to where our navy
• 45:01
  Speaker 6: is willing to go. And let's just think about this.
• 45:04
  Speaker 6: Pollyanna Pete Hegseth keeps telling us we're winning this thing
• 45:07
  Speaker 6: so bigly it hurts. Well, we can't even get the
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: navy within, you know, a thousand kilometers of the Strait
• 45:13
  Speaker 6: of Hormuz. But somehow we're gonna land marines inside. I
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: don't think so. And so there is a possibility or
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: probability that the real target is something like I think
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: it's the Conorade Naval Base, which is along that coastline
• 45:27
  Speaker 6: of Oman. But and that's near Baluchistan. And the argument
• 45:30
  Speaker 6: is the CIA has been implanted into Baluchistan, which is
• 45:34
  Speaker 6: a breakaway area of Iran, and where we have friendlies
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: on the ground, and the friendlies will come in from
• 45:40
  Speaker 6: the back door of the naval base in Iran, and
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: then we'll come in through the front door. It'll be happy,
• 45:45
  Speaker 6: you know, happy times are here again. I don't think again,
• 45:48
  Speaker 6: this is how it's gonna work out. And even if
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: we did take that territory, by the way, it's not
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: really near where we need to be. I mean, the
• 45:55
  Speaker 6: Straight of Hormose is the problem, not the Gulf of Oman,
• 45:57
  Speaker 6: not yet. So you know, this is all for show.
• 46:00
  Speaker 6: So this is again, this is irresponsible and crazy talk
• 46:03
  Speaker 6: from the administration, which we've we've become accustomed to now
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: on this issue.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: Let's put C two up there on the screen.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: These Raelies compiling some of the plans that we see
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: right now. Twenty five hundred marines, two thousand sailors, three
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: amphibious ships, three thousand paratroopers. I want to throw another
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: one at you, which we've talked a little bit about before.
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: Let's say Trump needs a spectacular off ramp. What about
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: the nuclear mission? The Israelis just bomb the nuclear facility.
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: Airborne troops can drop right in. Some theory that I
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: have seen now currently is you send airborne in, then
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: you send in the one wave of marines, and you
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: have another wave of marines that could come in. Everybody's
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: recycling in and out of the country. Obviously, though that
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: would be deep inside. How would something like that play out?
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Would it give the president the off ramp that he wants.
• 46:48
  Speaker 6: I don't think any of this is an off ramp.
• 46:50
  Speaker 6: I don't know. This is literally escalation. Now, maybe in
• 46:53
  Speaker 6: Trump's mind, you know, this is the we do.
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: She escalate, right brand That's right, Scott Bessen told me.
• 46:58
  Speaker 6: That's what Scott vest Yes, the military genius known as
• 47:01
  Speaker 6: Scott Bess. You know, you know, maybe in Trump's mind
• 47:06
  Speaker 6: that's how it works. But you know, remember the Russians
• 47:08
  Speaker 6: have had a escalate to de escalate doctrine for fifteen
• 47:11
  Speaker 6: ten years now, and it hasn't worked for them. I mean,
• 47:14
  Speaker 6: they're still in Ukraine, so you know, they're kind of
• 47:18
  Speaker 6: winning in Ukraine. But the point is it hasn't worked
• 47:20
  Speaker 6: anywhere it's tried. When you escalate and you're up against arrival,
• 47:24
  Speaker 6: like the Persians or the Iranians, they escalate along with you.
• 47:28
  Speaker 6: In fact, they've demonstrated I think I said this before,
• 47:30
  Speaker 6: they demonstrated a remarkable capacity. So far we go up
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: one escalation run there they are waiting for us. They
• 47:36
  Speaker 6: just go right with us. These are this is a
• 47:38
  Speaker 6: very wily group of adversaries we're up against, and we've
• 47:41
  Speaker 6: completely misread and underestimated them. So perhaps that's what the
• 47:45
  Speaker 6: president is envisioning. It's not going to go that way.
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: And by the way, how is all those free flowing
• 47:51
  Speaker 6: forces going to put up with a contested airspace where
• 47:55
  Speaker 6: air defense systems are still active. They've already hit at
• 47:58
  Speaker 6: F thirty five, they've already targeted you know these casey
• 48:01
  Speaker 6: one thirty five. So how are we going to do
• 48:04
  Speaker 6: this without losing a bunch of guys needlessly? And of
• 48:09
  Speaker 6: course the political ramifications. You know, Trump is obsessed with
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: having the markets look good, so he has good, good
• 48:14
  Speaker 6: polling or whatever. I don't know how losing a bunch
• 48:17
  Speaker 6: of troops in the heart of Iran to try to
• 48:19
  Speaker 6: take over some nuclear facility or whatever. I mean, this
• 48:22
  Speaker 6: just sounds really this sounds like something from a Tom
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: Clancy novel and not something from like real war.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: But it might happen. The thing is like it. Yes,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: actually might happen like for real.
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: Yes, that one would be very difficult though, because he's
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: going to have to penetrate deep hold. I mean, he
• 48:37
  Speaker 6: might try it, but that thing could really go pair
• 48:39
  Speaker 6: shaped fast.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: So one of our aircraft carriers in the region had
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: to limp back to shore after an alleged laundry fire.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: What impact does that have on our abilities in the region?
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: You know, I believe there's just one air just one
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: aircraft carrier in the area.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: Now you know how much does matter?
• 49:00
  Speaker 6: Well, I believe the second aircraft has come. I guess
• 49:03
  Speaker 6: the third was it the George H. W. Bush left Virginia,
• 49:07
  Speaker 6: so it's en route ultimately, Look, I've been a critic
• 49:11
  Speaker 6: of the aircraft carrier for over a decade. I think
• 49:13
  Speaker 6: it is it is an obsolete weapon. I think that
• 49:16
  Speaker 6: it is a sitting duck. As we're seeing these missiles
• 49:19
  Speaker 6: are targeting. Whether they hit the Gerald R Ford or
• 49:22
  Speaker 6: not is the question. I know that the Houthis came
• 49:26
  Speaker 6: very close to hitting a couple of those carriers a
• 49:29
  Speaker 6: year or two ago, and that's why we abandoned the
• 49:31
  Speaker 6: fight with the Houthies. The Ford. They're claiming it was
• 49:34
  Speaker 6: a laundry fire. I am not convinced. I personally have
• 49:38
  Speaker 6: no evidence of this as a speculation, but I do
• 49:41
  Speaker 6: think that was probably probably clipped by one of those
• 49:43
  Speaker 6: Iranian ASBMs that's an anti ship ballistic missile. And you
• 49:49
  Speaker 6: know they probably are are retreating back to Virginia now
• 49:53
  Speaker 6: to get repair and rest. The problem is, we have
• 49:56
  Speaker 6: one shipyard in the entire United States that can handle
• 49:59
  Speaker 6: the of overhaul necessary for these carriers. It's backlogged. They're
• 50:03
  Speaker 6: saying it'll be fourteen months before the Ford is back
• 50:06
  Speaker 6: in action. I would anticipate twenty four to twenty eight months.
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: You have to double that almost because because the shipyards
• 50:14
  Speaker 6: are so sclerotic here and they're already at you know,
• 50:17
  Speaker 6: at capacity. So this is a big problem. This is
• 50:20
  Speaker 6: a loss of capabilities. It's a tool out of our toolbox.
• 50:23
  Speaker 6: Uh and we only have I think right now three
• 50:27
  Speaker 6: operational out of eleven carriers. So you know, this is
• 50:32
  Speaker 6: this is a nightmare scenario at the strategic level again,
• 50:34
  Speaker 6: because as this is happening in the Middle East, the
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: Chinese are not just going to leave it alone. You're
• 50:40
  Speaker 6: seeing Russia and or Ukraine again starting at it. So
• 50:43
  Speaker 6: our you know, our rivals are constantly figuring out how
• 50:47
  Speaker 6: to use this to their advantage. And Uncle Sam is
• 50:50
  Speaker 6: declining significantly unfortunately.
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: Ran And let's talk about the combat effectiveness of the
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: Iranian missiles now so far, so we day after day,
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: every time I wake up, I see a new hit
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: inside of Israel that I didn't see two weeks ago.
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: We saw Demona, the nuclear facility area got hit. We
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: saw us was it a rod I think that's the
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: name where Southern Israel mass casualty this morning, Tel Aviv
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: rubble everywhere. It looks like the blitz in the middle
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: of London. This seems like a daily occurrence. Now what
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: does that tell us, Well.
• 51:21
  Speaker 6: It tells us that I just saw before I logged down.
• 51:23
  Speaker 6: Daily Mail has an op ed. They're saying the Iranians
• 51:26
  Speaker 6: only have a thousand missiles left. And I'm reminded of
• 51:29
  Speaker 6: you know, the articles coming out of Ukraine in the beginning,
• 51:32
  Speaker 6: when you know the Russians are two weeks away from
• 51:33
  Speaker 6: running out of missiles, they're using laundry machine. You know,
• 51:36
  Speaker 6: this is not this is not realistic. I think a
• 51:41
  Speaker 6: safer assessment is that the Iranians have probably an additional
• 51:44
  Speaker 6: eighteen to twenty four months left of their missiles stockpiles.
• 51:48
  Speaker 6: We're not even talking about the drones. The drones are
• 51:51
  Speaker 6: the real problem. The drones are actually what they're threatening
• 51:53
  Speaker 6: to hit ships passing through the Strait of Hormus with.
• 51:56
  Speaker 6: They're not threatening to hit them with missiles necessarily, it's
• 51:59
  Speaker 6: the drones the heads. So we're not even addressing the
• 52:02
  Speaker 6: more than eighty eight thousand drones that they have in
• 52:05
  Speaker 6: their arsenal, which haven't even been close to used. So,
• 52:09
  Speaker 6: in my opinion, these missile strikes are clearly demonstrating escalation
• 52:13
  Speaker 6: dominance on the part of the Iranians. They clearly have
• 52:16
  Speaker 6: a robust arsenal. Remember, up until a week ago, they're
• 52:19
  Speaker 6: using missiles that were ten and fifteen years old. These
• 52:22
  Speaker 6: are the missiles from ten years ago. Now they've started
• 52:25
  Speaker 6: upgrading and they've switched music munitions to the more advanced stuff,
• 52:28
  Speaker 6: and they're talking about the koramshar and some of these
• 52:31
  Speaker 6: other very sophisticated, very lethal missiles. So if you're sitting
• 52:36
  Speaker 6: around listening to the White House and the Pentagon telling you, oh,
• 52:39
  Speaker 6: this war is coming to a close soon, I think
• 52:42
  Speaker 6: the Iranians unfortunately, have another message for you, which is
• 52:45
  Speaker 6: We've got plenty and we're going to keep coming up
• 52:47
  Speaker 6: the escalation ladder with you.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so straight orform is obviously has become you know,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: a central question in this war, central objective in this war,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: even though if we just hadn't started the war, everything
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: would have been fine there. But in any case that
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: you know, they've.
• 53:00
  Speaker 6: Well, it's not a war, it's a non war war.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: Right, it's a it's an excursion or whatever the term
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: of art is. Now, in any case, you know, we've
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: we've abandoned and there was a Washing poster report about this.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: We've abandoned the idea of you know, completely destroying their
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: ability to produce nuclear weapon. We've abandoned the idea of
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: regime change. So now we're just trying to basically like
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: undo sam damage that was done. Trump we played the
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: earl in the show, was like, maybe me and the Ayatola.
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: Are going to control the straight of war moves together.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Okay, what would it actually take though, to you know, forcibly,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: take control of the strait of horror moves and make
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: it safe enough that shifts feel they can navigate that
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: without getting you know, cliped by a drone or whatever.
• 53:39
  Speaker 6: It's going to require a force substantially larger than what
• 53:42
  Speaker 6: we've deployed, and it's going to take a political willingness
• 53:46
  Speaker 6: and I'm not advocating for this at all, a political
• 53:49
  Speaker 6: willingness to see very large numbers of casualties and oh,
• 53:53
  Speaker 6: by the way, the loss of some of these very
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: expensive platforms, not just carriers, but destroyers as well. Remember
• 53:59
  Speaker 6: there was a business inside or interview with a captain
• 54:01
  Speaker 6: of a destroyer during the Hoothy Fight where he said
• 54:04
  Speaker 6: that never in his career, and not since World War
• 54:07
  Speaker 6: Two the Pacific theater had the US Navy encountered an
• 54:11
  Speaker 6: enemy as serious as I'm paraphrasing as the Houthis were.
• 54:15
  Speaker 6: And of course we abandoned that fight. Remember that was
• 54:18
  Speaker 6: the big signal gate that was part of that whole
• 54:20
  Speaker 6: discussion with Jeffrey Goldberg. They abandoned that fight because it
• 54:24
  Speaker 6: was too much. And now we're talking about going up
• 54:26
  Speaker 6: against you know, sort of the mothership of terrorism in
• 54:29
  Speaker 6: the region, and they're like a missile city and we're
• 54:33
  Speaker 6: going to somehow, you know, we're gonna with with two
• 54:35
  Speaker 6: carriers and a handful of destroyers that won't get anywhere
• 54:38
  Speaker 6: near under current conditions the Strait of Hormuz. Suddenly they're
• 54:40
  Speaker 6: going to punch through land marines, take out all. I mean,
• 54:44
  Speaker 6: this is this is the stuff of science fiction fantasy.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: So it's yeah, well I would respectfully suggest that Israel
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: is the mothership of terrorism in the region.
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: Well sure, yeah, yeah, Iran.
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: This is the difficulty of this is that every day
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: we hear d D five percent capacity has been wiped
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: out ninety five percent, and the Israelis, i think twice now,
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: have claimed that three hundred missiles have been destroyed.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: And it's like, well, I don't know if that's even.
• 55:11
  Speaker 6: The math isn't mathing as they say.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't really work.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: But the thing is is that with their drone production,
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: with their oil enrichment, right now, the Iranians are in
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: a better position, much more than they expected. Right initially
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: at this point, though, how can the United States, and
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: you know you're political as well. What possible outcome could
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: we see that actually leads to this ending from Donald Trump?
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: I think it would take a sea change of mindset
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: to say, okay, done, let's sign a fake deal, declare victory,
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: and get out.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: But I just don't see. Yeah, And I wonder.
• 55:48
  Speaker 6: That's the Trump of the first first year or two
• 55:50
  Speaker 6: of the presidency in twenty sixteen. That's not the Trump
• 55:53
  Speaker 6: of COVID. That's not the Trump of of now we're
• 55:55
  Speaker 6: getting the Trump of COVID. Okay, this was he was
• 55:57
  Speaker 6: committed to lockdowns, he was committed to all that. So
• 56:01
  Speaker 6: this is the worst patterns of Trump coming out in
• 56:04
  Speaker 6: my opinion. You know, here and now there's nukes involved,
• 56:08
  Speaker 6: so there's no off ramp. You know, he's whenever he
• 56:12
  Speaker 6: says something about, oh yeah, I've got what we're talking
• 56:14
  Speaker 6: to people, I think he's talking to himself. I think
• 56:17
  Speaker 6: he's talking to Netan Yahoo. And you know, I think
• 56:21
  Speaker 6: that they are conspiring to try to keep the markets
• 56:23
  Speaker 6: calm uh long enough for them to get those marines
• 56:27
  Speaker 6: in place, and then they're gonna do Gallipoli two point
• 56:30
  Speaker 6: zero and it's gonna end in disaster. This whole thing's
• 56:33
  Speaker 6: ending in disasters. So there is no off ramp. You're
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: gonna get a bunch of our people killed, and then
• 56:38
  Speaker 6: that's probably gonna lead, in my opinion, to Israel then
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: saying oh, we got to drop a nuke now, because
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: net Yahoo Net Yahoo is deeply committed and his people,
• 56:45
  Speaker 6: the Lakut Party, they're deeply committed, uh to this course
• 56:49
  Speaker 6: of action, utter annihilation of Iran, no matter what. So
• 56:53
  Speaker 6: you know this is where it's headed. I think in
• 56:55
  Speaker 6: the coming weeks.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Brandon, I think an offer amp requires Trump's removal
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: from office at this point, because if you're the Iranians,
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: why would you ever deal with this? Why would you
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: ever nego? They've already said that themistration Yeah, they have
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: already said that, and I believe them because multiple times,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: and not just with regard to you know, the build
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: up to the Twelve Day War, but in other instances
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: as well, we've used diplomacy as a ruse. They see
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: what's going on here with Trump just now inventing fake
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: diplomacy and once again trying to use it as a
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: ruse for whatever his next escalatory plan is. So you
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: have that, and then you also look at this man
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: who is clearly a menace to the country in the
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: world at this point. So, I mean, is there an
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: off ramp. As long as Donald Trump remin's president of
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: the United States, I.
• 57:37
  Speaker 6: Would have thought the institutions would have snapped back into place,
• 57:41
  Speaker 6: and unfortunately not, even people like General Cain ultimately stood
• 57:47
  Speaker 6: up to him and said this is not going to work.
• 57:49
  Speaker 6: Now the Navy. It's interesting the Navy. You know, he's
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: been telling them to go through the strait and the
• 57:55
  Speaker 6: Amerals keep saying, we're not doing it. So that's interesting
• 57:58
  Speaker 6: that that's sort of not happened yet, thank god. But
• 58:02
  Speaker 6: in terms of twenty fourth Amendment, it requires a vice
• 58:05
  Speaker 6: president who's willing to stand up to Trump, and I
• 58:07
  Speaker 6: don't think mister Vance, for a variety of reasons, is
• 58:11
  Speaker 6: willing to do that. He was down in Austin recently
• 58:14
  Speaker 6: with Lonsdale and pallanteer guys, and I think the fact
• 58:18
  Speaker 6: of the matter is, you know that there's not going
• 58:20
  Speaker 6: to be any movement toward actually reasserting some kind of
• 58:23
  Speaker 6: constitutional control here because you had Wassam and some of
• 58:27
  Speaker 6: these top Vance advisors are are leaving on Moss and
• 58:31
  Speaker 6: they're going to be putting in. I was told to
• 58:33
  Speaker 6: expect in the coming weeks multiple people close to Vance
• 58:36
  Speaker 6: who were foreign policy non interventionists are going to be
• 58:39
  Speaker 6: leaving for the private sector. So I don't think there's
• 58:42
  Speaker 6: any offer amp there either. I think that when November hits,
• 58:46
  Speaker 6: the likelihood as Democrats win and Massey and Kanna do
• 58:50
  Speaker 6: an impeachment, you know, a scheme together, that's going to
• 58:54
  Speaker 6: be the hope I think for the left. But I
• 58:58
  Speaker 6: don't think the Republicans are going to let it happen either.
• 59:00
  Speaker 6: The Publicans are going to be rallying to their guy
• 59:02
  Speaker 6: who's clearly way off on this one and gonna get
• 59:05
  Speaker 6: a lot of people. I mean, he's Trump is gonna
• 59:07
  Speaker 6: get a lot of people killed, and he's gonna get
• 59:09
  Speaker 6: a lot of people at home hurt with this economic stuff.
• 59:11
  Speaker 6: This is a disaster.
• 59:13
  Speaker 7: Wow.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: Well, Brandon, last thing, why are you so confident about
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: the use of nuclear weapon?
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: You're one of the only people I know who is like,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: it's going to We're not going to happen. But it's
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: what I'm at like five percent, you're like fifty.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Why why are you so confident?
• 59:25
  Speaker 6: Well, because I think that once the land attack fit.
• 59:27
  Speaker 6: It's so bad in Israel right now, and basically Netanya,
• 59:31
  Speaker 6: who is completely locked in this is this is all
• 59:33
  Speaker 6: or nothing for Netanya. You know, it's nineteen forty five Berlin.
• 59:37
  Speaker 6: He's trying to move troops around on that only only
• 59:39
  Speaker 6: exist on a map. So like, this guy's not he's
• 59:42
  Speaker 6: not operating in the same reality that we are. And
• 59:46
  Speaker 6: so I think what happens is the heat. They're banking
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: on one last Hail Mary being the US marine landings.
• 59:52
  Speaker 6: That's not going to work under current conditions. At that point,
• 59:55
  Speaker 6: Trump's gonna probably get cold feet and try to figure
• 59:58
  Speaker 6: out a way to get out of this because he's
• 59:59
  Speaker 6: gonna realize things a disaster. And then at that point
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 6: Netan Yahoo is gonna say, no, I'm going this is it.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: The Americans are getting cold feet. They can't do it.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 6: I gotta do it. I'm gonna the only thing I've
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 6: got our nukes. And when all you have is a hammer,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 6: everything's a nail. And that's why I think this is
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 6: and I don't see any off ramp. I just don't.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 6: Even if Trump were to taco out today, it's like
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 6: the Israelis don't have to and the Iranians don't have
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 6: to like you have to have, you know, engagement from
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 6: the other two parties. And so far, the Iranians are
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 6: very confident that they've got what they need, and the
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 6: Israelis are very very worried, and so they're gonna keep
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 6: doubling down to try to get out of this mess
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 6: they've created. So that's where we are, and Trump's sort
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 6: of a passive observer in this whole thing, which is
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 6: really shocking to see an American president in that position.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: Extraordinary stuff. Brandon's always great to speak with you. We
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: really appreciate it.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: Thank you.