Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 138 - 10/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 138 - 10/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 138 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. The work week rolls on.
• 0:38
  We have the return of the NFL Week 6 kicking off tonight.
• 0:42
  Big match up here in the Pacific Northwest, the 49ers and the
• 0:45
  Seattle Seahawks. I have a play here on the side
• 0:48
  as well as a player prop for you guys today.
• 0:51
  Overall, I got a 5 pack of sweats.
• 0:52
  We're going to hit on it all. Obviously seeing Fran in Seattle
• 0:55
  are going to be the big game. We're excited to sweat, but we
• 0:57
  got other opportunities here, including one college football
• 1:01
  game tonight that caught my eye. 2 pretty bad teams, but I'm
• 1:05
  hoping this team covers the number and then also AW, NBA
• 1:08
  play. Tonight kicks off the WNBA
• 1:11
  Finals as we have a big match up here in New York City at Madison
• 1:15
  Square Garden between the links and Liberty.
• 1:17
  I gotta play on the total. And then you guys were clamoring
• 1:21
  and waiting and saying where are your NHL bets at?
• 1:24
  When you gonna start betting hockey?
• 1:26
  Well guess what, I found an edge here tonight in the NHL.
• 1:29
  Hopefully a rest first tired system match with a good line
• 1:32
  move will come through for us today.
• 1:33
  So overall, 5 pack, two NFL bets on Thursday Night Football, 1
• 1:37
  college football game tonight, one WNBA game and one NHL bet.
• 1:41
  Our first of the season. Now looking back toward last
• 1:44
  night, guys, all good things must come to an end, as they
• 1:47
  say. Our win streak reached four
• 1:49
  days. Unfortunately, couldn't reach 5
• 1:51
  days, 1 and 2 -, 1.13 units. Yesterday had an epic hit with
• 1:56
  the Mets. Unbelievable.
• 1:57
  They're down 1, nothing, bases loaded.
• 2:00
  Lindor hits an epic Grand Slam. They shut the door, even though
• 2:04
  it got a little dicey with Diaz in the 9th, but got a great hit
• 2:06
  there with the Mets. But that was all we got.
• 2:09
  The Padres couldn't come through for us.
• 2:11
  That was pretty much dead on arrival.
• 2:13
  Got lit up. Dylan Cease couldn't do anything
• 2:15
  on offense. The Padres let me down and maybe
• 2:17
  let you down as well. But the one that was almost so
• 2:20
  bad it was comical was New Mexico State.
• 2:23
  Oh my God. I thought we were in like pretty
• 2:25
  good, in a pretty good situation there cuz New Mexico State at at
• 2:29
  the end of the first quarter, I think it was nine to three or
• 2:31
  six to three or it was a very close game and they're like, OK,
• 2:34
  we're looking pretty decent. What ends up happening?
• 2:37
  The wheels come off. They look like the Bad News
• 2:39
  Bears, fumbling the ball like multiple times, getting sacked,
• 2:44
  throwing interceptions, making just pathetic, like, you know,
• 2:48
  basically like Pop Warner league mistakes.
• 2:50
  So New Mexico State AB absolutely got their faces
• 2:53
  ripped off 54 to 13 kind of hurt because we got a good 21 1/2 and
• 2:58
  it closed 21. So that was one of those games
• 3:00
  where it was pretty much turn it off, you know, halfway through
• 3:03
  the third quarter unfortunately couldn't cover that number.
• 3:06
  But either way guys, we're going to look to start a new streak
• 3:09
  today with a 5 pack of sweats to discuss.
• 3:12
  Now before we get into all of our plays here for tonight, I
• 3:14
  just want to mention one quick thing.
• 3:16
  I am Co hosting office hours at 4:00 PM Eastern Time alongside
• 3:20
  my buddy Brian, who is the brains behind Rhythm.
• 3:24
  So this is hosted by Rhythm. It's every Thursday at 4:00.
• 3:27
  Usually my buddy James Santor hosts it.
• 3:29
  He's in Vegas for the G2 E Summit, so he said, hey, can you
• 3:32
  host it for me today? I said absolutely.
• 3:34
  So it'll be a little bit like the Sunday sweats, but it'll be
• 3:37
  stream live on Twitter. You can just follow me at Josh
• 3:40
  under score insights. We'll go live at 4:00.
• 3:43
  Going to go through some plays for tonight plays for the
• 3:46
  weekend pick Brian's brain. This is one of the smartest guys
• 3:48
  I've ever met. He really designed rhythm.
• 3:50
  So it's the opportunity to talk to a a very, very smart data
• 3:55
  analytics person who went to MIT if you have any questions.
• 3:57
  So hope to see you guys today, 4:00 PM Eastern Time for rhythm
• 4:01
  office hours. Now let's get into our sweats
• 4:03
  for today because we got a little bit of everything.
• 4:05
  And I want to start off with, of course, probably the game you're
• 4:08
  most excited to sweat. Although as flat betters, all
• 4:11
  these, all these plays are, are equal, always risking one unit.
• 4:14
  So you may have you may be more excited to watch one game over
• 4:17
  the other. But remember, the beauty of a
• 4:18
  flat better is not letting your bias, you know, kind of seep in
• 4:22
  like, hey, Sanford and Seattle big game.
• 4:23
  I'm going to bet 3 units on this game.
• 4:25
  WNBAI don't love WNBA. I'm going to bet 1/4 unit on
• 4:29
  that. That's when you get into trouble
• 4:30
  because what if you win your quarter unit play you you lose
• 4:32
  your 3 unit bomb, then you're in trouble versus breaking even and
• 4:36
  just eating the juice. So it's always bet to risk first
• 4:38
  bet to win. I'll tell you right now as well.
• 4:40
  I have a softball, a double header tonight, beer league
• 4:43
  softball, 8:00 to 9:00 and 9:00 to 10:00.
• 4:45
  So I'll be in one of those kind of weird moods where I'm like,
• 4:49
  OK, am I winning? Am I losing?
• 4:50
  What's going on with my sweats? But I love playing under the
• 4:53
  lights and we do have a double header tonight, so wish me luck.
• 4:57
  My over under is 4 1/2 total bases.
• 5:00
  Anyway, let's look at San Fran and Seattle.
• 5:03
  Big match up here. Thursday Night Football.
• 5:05
  Make sure you got your Amazon Prime locked and ready to go.
• 5:08
  8:15 PM Eastern Time match up here.
• 5:11
  Couple rivals in the NFC West. The 49ers come in two and three.
• 5:16
  Just had a loss to the Seahawks. Straight up 24 to 23.
• 5:19
  They're a 7 1/2 point favorite. Similarly, Seattle three and two
• 5:23
  just lost to the Giants 29 to 20 as a 7 point home favorite.
• 5:27
  So what have we seen across the board here?
• 5:29
  Well, this game opened at some shops, San Fran -3 some shops
• 5:33
  open San Fran -3 1/2. So, you know, split the
• 5:36
  difference was around three, 3 1/2.
• 5:38
  But the one thing that is very obvious here is that the public,
• 5:41
  like San Francisco, the 49ers are getting nearly 2/3 of bets,
• 5:45
  currently getting 63% of spread bets.
• 5:48
  And what's notable to me is that the line really hasn't moved at
• 5:51
  all. Now, you did see some -3 openers
• 5:53
  get up to 3 1/2, but the 3 1/2 openers have stayed at 3 1/2.
• 5:57
  And the other angle here is that nearly 2/3 of bets are on San
• 6:00
  Fran most heavily bet game of the night.
• 6:02
  But the sign has never gotten to four 4 1/2.
• 6:04
  It's pretty much stayed right where it's at.
• 6:06
  So that tells me you have a bit of a line freeze here on
• 6:08
  Seattle, The fact that Seattle is only getting around 363536
• 6:15
  percent of spread bets, yet pretty much the line hasn't
• 6:18
  moved at all. And the other angle here is that
• 6:20
  not only has it not really moved, but look at the juice.
• 6:23
  A lot of these books are juicing up the Seattle side plus 3 1/2
• 6:26
  -, 115. So tells me that maybe we get
• 6:30
  back down to three. Now I'm going to go Seattle
• 6:32
  here. Bunch of system matches can
• 6:34
  train in heavily back game. You would love to get the hook
• 6:37
  right now with Seattle plus 3 1/2 and then see this line get
• 6:40
  down to three. That would be a great sign for
• 6:42
  those of us who are going to play Seattle.
• 6:44
  But on the one hand, little bit of a line freeze.
• 6:46
  Why hasn't this line risen up to four 4 1/2 if public is all over
• 6:49
  San Fran? Also contrarian and heavily back
• 6:52
  game as Seattle's again, only getting around 1/3 of tickets.
• 6:55
  But then we get into a lot of system matches on Seattle
• 6:58
  Primetime dogs. 126 and one O 1 against the spread 56% with a 7%
• 7:04
  ROI since 2020. Prime time or sorry, divisional
• 7:09
  dogs. Obviously this is a divisional
• 7:11
  game. NFC West I get into a divisional
• 7:13
  matchup, I automatically lean dog because of the built in
• 7:16
  familiarity. The rivalry aspect levels the
• 7:18
  playing field, benefits the team getting points.
• 7:21
  So divisional dogs are 215 and 183 against the spread 54% with
• 7:26
  a 4% ROI since 2020. Then you get into dogs getting 3
• 7:30
  1/2 points or more. When they're getting 3 1/2
• 7:32
  points or more, they're 24 and 16 ATS.
• 7:35
  This year, 60% and what's weird is that 3 1/2 three is kind of a
• 7:39
  line in the sand. When you're a dog getting three
• 7:41
  points or less, you're only 15 and 21 ATS.
• 7:44
  This year, 42%. So it's really been these bigger
• 7:47
  dogs, at least the key number of three in the hook, that have
• 7:50
  performed really well, which Seattle is in that spot right
• 7:53
  here. Then I dusted off this system
• 7:55
  match when you have both teams that are coming off a loss, as
• 7:59
  the 49ers just lost to the Cardinals in the Seahawks just
• 8:01
  lost to the Giants. Both teams coming off a loss and
• 8:05
  it's a divisional matchup. Take the dog.
• 8:07
  Very simple system, but that's 67 and 44 against the spread,
• 8:11
  60% with a 16% ROI. Seattle would also be a classic
• 8:15
  dog who can score system match. They're averaging nearly 25
• 8:18
  points per game, ranking 11th in the NFL.
• 8:21
  So you want to put up points, keep pace, maybe back to our
• 8:24
  cover. So I'm all in on Seattle.
• 8:27
  Plus 3 1/2 contrarian and heavily back game.
• 8:30
  Little bit of line freeze or maybe some RLM.
• 8:33
  Tons of system matches here. Can train and heavily bet spot
• 8:36
  Divisional dog. I'm going Seattle plus 3 1/2.
• 8:40
  In terms of the total, I was leaning pretty hard on the
• 8:42
  under. I really wanted the 49 1/2
• 8:45
  under. It's down to 49.
• 8:46
  At some shops it opened as low as 48, got up to 49 1/2.
• 8:51
  But over the last 24 hours or so, or you know, at least
• 8:54
  overnight until this morning, all those 49 1/2's are down to
• 8:57
  49 and some books are going to 48 1/2.
• 8:59
  So this line is coming down a bit.
• 9:01
  Now what's kind of interesting is that tickets in dollars are
• 9:04
  right 5050 over under. So there's no like you know, 70%
• 9:08
  of that's over contrarian go under public's right down the
• 9:11
  middle. But prime time under this year
• 9:14
  are 10 and 8. They're 170 and 1/15/60 percent,
• 9:18
  15% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders 8 and
• 9:22
  five this year, 231 and one, 8655% since 2021.
• 9:28
  And this was notable to me. But when you have those high
• 9:30
  totals, when the total is 48 1/2 or more, the under is 8 and
• 9:34
  three this year, 73% and it's 73%, right on the .29 and 11 the
• 9:40
  last two seasons. So under nothing for me.
• 9:43
  I was just kind of being a little bit careful because I
• 9:47
  missed the 49 1/2 and that seemed to be the best number.
• 9:50
  If that's a, you know, 27 to 22 game, we would need Seattle to
• 9:55
  win that one. But you know, 24 or whatever
• 9:59
  around that angle, 49 is kind of a quasi key number.
• 10:03
  That would be a situation where I'd want the hook.
• 10:05
  So it's under nothing for me. But I am going to take Seattle
• 10:08
  as my only official ticket plus 3 1/2.
• 10:11
  Now, I do have a player prop for you.
• 10:12
  I'm going to go Geno Smith over 248 1/2 passing hours.
• 10:16
  Can Geno get us 249 or more tonight?
• 10:20
  I'm hoping that he can. Geno Smith has gone over this
• 10:23
  number in four straight games. He passed for 327 against the
• 10:27
  Patriots, 289 against the Dolphins, 395 against the Lions.
• 10:31
  I believe we take the over there and he went over and 284 against
• 10:35
  the G Men. He's gone over this number in
• 10:37
  six of his last nine home games. Seahawks also are in a dog in a
• 10:41
  high total spot. So will they be trailing?
• 10:44
  I hope not. I want them to cover this
• 10:45
  number, of course. But if you're trailing and you
• 10:48
  got to keep pace, you got to throw the ball, which could bode
• 10:50
  well for Geno Smith with a lot of these talented pass catchers.
• 10:54
  And then of course, if I'm on a player proper, you know, I have
• 10:56
  a rhythm edge. Rhythm is predicting Geno Smith
• 10:59
  with 259.2 passing yards. So rhythm is predicting around
• 11:04
  260 is over under 248 1/2. He's gone over this number a ton
• 11:09
  here recently and it could good match up on a short week,
• 11:12
  hopefully to throw the ball as a dog in a high total spot.
• 11:15
  I'm going to go Gino over 248 1/2 passing yards.
• 11:19
  So Seattle plus 3 1/2 + 3 1/2, Gino over 248 1/2.
• 11:25
  Now let's go over to some college football.
• 11:28
  Now there's three games tonight and of course I'm looking at, to
• 11:33
  me, the Most Valuable Player or the game that caught my eye the
• 11:36
  most, which happens to be the least heavily backed game, but
• 11:40
  it's mid Middle Tennessee State, MTSU and LA Tech.
• 11:43
  It's an 8:00 game on CBS Sports Network, and the reason why it's
• 11:47
  not very popular is that there are two really bad teams.
• 11:50
  Middle Tennessee is 1 and 4. LA Tech is 1 and 3.
• 11:54
  LA Tech has lost three straight. Middle Tennessee has lost four
• 11:57
  straight. So both these teams are not
• 12:00
  playing very well. They're both coming off a bye.
• 12:02
  But what I noticed here is a really good rhythm edge, a
• 12:06
  really good bet split and a good line move play toward MTSU.
• 12:10
  Guys, I'm going MTSU plus 4 1/2. Now.
• 12:14
  What jumped out to me at this one is that we basically opened
• 12:18
  Louisiana Tech Link 4 1/2 some books even at one point where I
• 12:22
  believe laying five, I think it got up to five at a couple
• 12:25
  shops, got down to 4 1/2. Now it's juiced up like it's
• 12:28
  going down to four. So basically all movement and
• 12:32
  and really movement over the last 2448 hours is back toward
• 12:35
  MTSU. And what I really like about
• 12:37
  MTSU is that not only is the line going in their favor and I
• 12:41
  got MTSU plus 4 1/2. Shop around, get that hook
• 12:44
  because there are some books at 4 lose by 4.
• 12:46
  You want to cover the number, but the bet split is really,
• 12:49
  really sharp toward MTSU. Currently 69% of spread bets are
• 12:54
  going LA Tech. So LA Tech is a very, very
• 12:57
  popular play tonight, getting nearly 7 out of 10 bets.
• 13:01
  Yet the line stayed the same or is now moving toward MTSU.
• 13:04
  So some line freeze RLM toward MTSU, but also if you look at
• 13:09
  flip it with MTSU, Middle Tennessee State is only getting
• 13:12
  31% of spread bets contrarian in a quasi primetime game, eight O
• 13:17
  clock, even though it's not your most heavily bet game of the
• 13:19
  night, but only 31% bets. But 62% of money money, money
• 13:25
  money is on MTSU. That is a huge low bets, higher
• 13:29
  dollars bet discrepancy in favor of Middle Tennessee State, only
• 13:33
  1/3 of tickets, but nearly 2/3 of dollars.
• 13:35
  MTSU also would be a Conference USA dog.
• 13:38
  So it's a Conference USA matchup, you know, built in
• 13:41
  familiarity, rivalry aspect, hopefully levelling the playing
• 13:44
  field, benefiting the team, getting points.
• 13:47
  It's also kind of a dog low total told this one is 48.
• 13:50
  Looks like there was some under money that came in.
• 13:52
  I think it was maybe as high as 50 and it's down to 48 here.
• 13:56
  But line moving toward the dog totals, excuse me, totals
• 13:59
  dropping. So good sign here that maybe we
• 14:01
  get a lower scoring game where MTSU is more inclined to cover
• 14:04
  this number. Also, LA Tech doesn't score a
• 14:08
  lot. They're only averaging 16 points
• 14:10
  a game, so do they have the firepower to cover this number
• 14:14
  in a low total spot? I'm hoping no.
• 14:16
  But then also we get to a rhythm edge.
• 14:19
  So we've identified MTSU contrarian and heavily back
• 14:22
  game, sharp buyback, 5 or 4 1/2, trending down to four.
• 14:26
  Great bat split conference dog, dog low total Rhythm is
• 14:31
  predicting a three-point spread. So if Rhythm is predicting 3 and
• 14:35
  we're getting 4 1/2, that's a full point and a half of
• 14:38
  actionable value or an edge hopefully over the books.
• 14:41
  And then also the community model when you get to everyone
• 14:44
  who has a premium account at Rhythm and has created a model
• 14:47
  in which they have a spread model on this game, 82% are
• 14:52
  going with MTSU. So that gives me a little bit of
• 14:55
  confidence that I'm with all the sharp goodwill hunting MIT
• 14:58
  betters here with MTSU. So you add it all up here, guys.
• 15:02
  Looks like a sharp dog opportunity.
• 15:05
  I hope to grab the four and a half right now pretty widely
• 15:07
  available and you'd love to see this thing get down to 4.
• 15:10
  But I'm going with the Blue Raiders MTSU at plus 4 1/2.
• 15:15
  Keep on cruising. Now let's go to the hardwood,
• 15:18
  the WNBA Finals. Game one here between the
• 15:22
  Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty at Madison Square
• 15:24
  Garden. Or sorry, I kept saying that
• 15:27
  it's actually the Barclays Center, never mind in Brooklyn.
• 15:29
  But anyway, going to this one, we have the Lynx, who are 30 and
• 15:32
  10 on the year. Had a great regular season.
• 15:34
  Liberty 32 and 8. These are really the two best
• 15:37
  teams in the WNBA. So when I was looking at the
• 15:41
  spread and kind of the movement for this one, you did see a
• 15:44
  little bit of movement in favor of New York Liberty.
• 15:47
  Some books open -5 1/2 -, 6, they're up to six or 6 1/2 now
• 15:52
  at this point, But I'm going to really focus on the total.
• 15:55
  And that's really where we've had a lot of our success in the
• 15:58
  WNBA betting totals. And what I noticed here is an
• 16:02
  opportunity to go over Lynx Liberty.
• 16:05
  So this total opened at around 159 1/2, but yesterday it was
• 16:11
  sitting at 159 pretty much across the board.
• 16:14
  Now it's back up to 159 1/2. So a lot of those 150 nines are
• 16:18
  now gone. So just tells me from yesterday
• 16:20
  to today we have risen a little bit.
• 16:23
  Now what I like about this over not exactly a, you know, a bet
• 16:27
  system play in terms of tickets in dollars and it's around 7080%
• 16:31
  of bets going over. So you know, you don't really
• 16:33
  have a low bets higher dollars or contrarian over you know the
• 16:36
  bet splits aren't really the sole reason why I'm playing this
• 16:39
  over. It's a really good system match
• 16:42
  in terms of a rhythm match. So 159 1/2 is your current
• 16:46
  total. It ticked up a half point since
• 16:48
  yesterday, so late movement going over.
• 16:50
  But then we pop open our rhythm app and rhythm, I have one
• 16:54
  Rhythm AI model predicting 164.5.
• 16:58
  I have a Josh Rhythm model predicting 167.4.
• 17:02
  So even if we take the lower of the two models, 164.5, that's
• 17:06
  still cashing this over by, you know what, four or five points.
• 17:11
  Also the community model, 85% are playing the over.
• 17:15
  And it makes sense to me because you have two of the best scoring
• 17:18
  teams in the WNBA. They're both top 4IN offensive
• 17:22
  rating. When it comes to just the
• 17:23
  playoffs, they're both top three in offensive rating.
• 17:26
  Liberty are averaging 86 points a game.
• 17:28
  Links are averaging 82 points per game.
• 17:31
  So I'm thinking, hey, we have a little bit of a tick up in the
• 17:35
  terms of the total over the last 24 hours.
• 17:37
  We have a great rhythm edge and we have two really good
• 17:40
  offensive teams. To me, it's an opportunity to
• 17:42
  play the over. So I'm going to go links and
• 17:46
  Liberty over 159 1/2. Let's get 160 or more baby.
• 17:52
  Now as we walk through the buffet, we finally have an NHL
• 17:56
  bet to talk about. So this one caught my eye.
• 17:59
  A lot of games here tonight and don't worry to me when it comes
• 18:03
  to the NHL, when my favorite angles is rest first tired and
• 18:06
  obviously you got to get a little bit deeper in the season.
• 18:09
  But I found one rest first tired advantage that is really popping
• 18:12
  tonight along with a good line move and that is Pittsburgh,
• 18:17
  Detroit, Pittsburgh Penguins, if you missed it yesterday, they
• 18:22
  got rolled. They lost what was it, 6 to
• 18:24
  nothing against the New York Rangers at home.
• 18:27
  Now they got to travel and go to Detroit and Detroit is playing
• 18:30
  their first game of the year so it's their season opener.
• 18:33
  So that means Detroit is rested and ready to go.
• 18:35
  Pittsburgh tired. I know the season just started.
• 18:38
  So maybe, you know, back-to-back when your season just starts is
• 18:41
  not quite as bad as back-to-back in the middle of, you know,
• 18:44
  January, but still back-to-back tired spot to fade Pittsburgh
• 18:49
  and a rested spot to play Detroit.
• 18:52
  Now, if you look at this situation in particular, a
• 18:55
  favorite against the team on the second leg of a back-to-back
• 18:59
  since 2021. This system is, let me see, it
• 19:03
  is six O 5 and 278 69% with a 7% ROI.
• 19:09
  The other angle here is with Pittsburgh on the second leg of
• 19:12
  a back-to-back. They're not going to play their
• 19:14
  same goalie from last night. Last night it was I believe
• 19:17
  Tristan Jari. Tonight they're going to go with
• 19:19
  a kid I've never heard of, Joel Blom Bloomquist, who I did a
• 19:25
  little research. He's 22 years old.
• 19:27
  He was a second round pick. He's making his first ever NHL
• 19:30
  start. So I want to bet against this
• 19:32
  kid. Maybe he's a good goalie, maybe
• 19:33
  he isn't, So that's a tough spot to make your NHL debut.
• 19:37
  He'll be opposed by Ville Whoso, who is a veteran for Detroit.
• 19:42
  Also looking at the line move lines moving toward Detroit.
• 19:45
  Detroit open this game as low as -125 -, 130.
• 19:49
  Now they're up to -140 -, 145. You look at the bet splits here,
• 19:54
  which I'll be a little careful with bet splits when it comes to
• 19:56
  hockey. I'm a little more inclined to
• 19:59
  play like favorites. As well as like you know, teams
• 20:03
  getting 7080% of bets because you got to remember hockey is
• 20:06
  your lowest bet professional sport.
• 20:08
  You know, they're diehards like us who play it, you know, every
• 20:11
  single day. But really it's not a public
• 20:13
  sport. So when I see like for example,
• 20:15
  tonight Pittsburgh is getting or sorry, Detroit is getting 82% of
• 20:19
  bets, 94% of dollars. Now that is a low bets higher
• 20:23
  dollar split that goes with that line move in Detroit's favor.
• 20:27
  But my point being, 82% in the NFL is automatic.
• 20:31
  No way. I'm playing you.
• 20:32
  I'm fading you. I want to bet against the
• 20:34
  public. 82% in the NHL doesn't really bother me because you
• 20:38
  have a much lower ticket count compared to obviously really
• 20:42
  public sports like any NFL, college football, NBA, you know,
• 20:46
  even like some college college basketball games, like you get
• 20:49
  Duke, UNC on a Tuesday night at 8:00, That's going to be very
• 20:52
  heavily bet. Hockey, you don't really get
• 20:54
  that. So 82% bets, 94% dollars on
• 20:58
  Detroit lines. Moving toward Detroit, we have a
• 21:01
  great favorite verse back-to-back system match.
• 21:04
  We are playing a veteran goaltender versus a 22 year old
• 21:07
  wide eyed kid who hopefully will get lit up tonight.
• 21:10
  And the last angle is home teams and hockey.
• 21:12
  The important thing when you're at home is that you get the last
• 21:15
  ice change. So basically the opposing team
• 21:18
  has to put out whoever they're going to put out there for their
• 21:21
  forwards and their defensive pair.
• 21:23
  The coach for the home team gets to see who's coming out.
• 21:26
  Like if it's Sidney Crosby coming out, boom, let's put our
• 21:29
  best defensive pair, our best checking line against him.
• 21:32
  So hopefully that's an advantage as well.
• 21:34
  We have a back-to-back fade opportunity of Pittsburgh.
• 21:37
  Let's play Detroit tonight, guys.
• 21:38
  Let's go. Red Wings, shop around.
• 21:40
  I got the wings at -142 so Red Wings -142 Lynx Liberty over 159
• 21:48
  1/2, MTSU plus 4 1/2, Seattle plus 3 1/2, and Gino over 248
• 21:54
  1/2. I want to mention one thing
• 21:56
  before we get out of here. I hope you guys listened and put
• 22:00
  in some of the NFL bets that we talked about yesterday.
• 22:03
  In particular, we were talking about Arizona and Green Bay, how
• 22:07
  Green Bay went from -5 1/2 down to -5 at a lot of shops.
• 22:12
  Well, I told you guys yesterday that FanDuel was was holding out
• 22:14
  or putting out a 5 1/2 with a hook, so I jumped on that.
• 22:17
  I'm seeing the sign get down to 5 or even 4 1/2.
• 22:20
  So if you want to play Arizona, probably want to play them
• 22:23
  sooner rather than later because this line is dropping.
• 22:25
  But the one that I'm really proud of that we got.
• 22:28
  And boy, this might be a ACLV play of the year.
• 22:31
  CLV won't win you a bet, but it makes you feel good going into
• 22:34
  it. Remember we talked Tennessee,
• 22:36
  Indianapolis Colts, where Tennessee public is all over
• 22:40
  Indy, Indy open around minus. What was it?
• 22:43
  Were they -1 1/2? The line got down to 1
• 22:46
  yesterday. If you listen to the pod,
• 22:48
  FanDuel was hanging a 1 1/2, so I jumped on Tennessee plus 1
• 22:51
  1/2. Indy's got some injuries.
• 22:53
  Tennessee's rested. Guys, have you seen the new
• 22:55
  Tennessee Titans line? The Titans are now -2 1/2.
• 22:59
  So whether you got them plus 1 1/2 + 1, maybe around to pick
• 23:03
  them even, they're now -2 1/2. So love seeing that line move in
• 23:06
  our favor with Tennessee. And then the G men still like in
• 23:09
  the G men here at 3 1/2, that's a Sunday night game still like
• 23:13
  in Chicago on the money line. That's our international series
• 23:15
  favorite system match. So a little update or a couple
• 23:19
  updates there when it comes to the NFL.
• 23:23
  I'll also mention Washington was a team that caught our eye,
• 23:26
  their little public and I was holding out for the seven on the
• 23:29
  Washington Commanders because if you look at those dogs getting 6
• 23:32
  1/2, they're absolutely awesome. What are they, 15 and two
• 23:36
  against the spread, something like that, but also a rhythm
• 23:39
  system match or this line should be, I want to say like closer to
• 23:42
  like 3 or 4, but you may, you might be able to find the seven
• 23:46
  now for Washington. So I'm going to hold out for
• 23:48
  that. But I do see some books maybe
• 23:50
  going to seven. So keep your eye on that one.
• 23:52
  That's just a pure system match, rhythm edge, not as much a bet
• 23:56
  split percentage play, but that about does it.
• 23:59
  Another pod here in the books, guys, Episode 138.
• 24:03
  Of course, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
• 24:06
  I'll leave you with a few things.
• 24:08
  First off, if you enjoy this podcast and maybe you look
• 24:12
  forward to it dropping each day, whether you sit back and just
• 24:15
  listen to the breakdowns and maybe play one game that piques
• 24:19
  your interest, or you play them all, or you tail or you fade #1
• 24:23
  all that I care is that you're part of the group, part of the
• 24:25
  community. I always make the comparison of
• 24:27
  pulling up a chair to the virtual bar when you're amongst
• 24:30
  your friends, talking sports but not talking dumb.
• 24:33
  You know, bias plays based on your gut instinct, but
• 24:35
  data-driven plays. So First off, thank you for
• 24:38
  tuning in, thank you for listening.
• 24:40
  But if you enjoy this pod, you enjoy the data-driven
• 24:42
  breakdowns, could you please help me to grow this podcast?
• 24:46
  Reach out to more people who hopefully could benefit from a
• 24:49
  data-driven approach. Easiest way you can help me grow
• 24:52
  this pod is by doing one simple thing.
• 24:54
  Would you please give this podcast a five star review
• 24:57
  Whether you're listening on Spotify or iTunes should be an
• 25:00
  option there to rate or review. Click the five stars, leave a
• 25:04
  nice message if you're inclined, but really that rating would
• 25:06
  would help be help immensely to continue to grow and continue to
• 25:11
  rise up the the charts and the ratings for sports betting pods.
• 25:14
  If you want to click the follow button that way you get alerted
• 25:16
  as soon as it drops each day. That will be great If you want
• 25:18
  to recommend it to a friend or buddy of yours.
• 25:21
  Word of mouth is also fantastic. But please, A5 star view, that's
• 25:25
  all I'm asking. Secondly, if you enjoy this pod
• 25:28
  and you are intrigued by data-driven sports betting, not
• 25:32
  betting based on your gut instinct, your bias, what you
• 25:34
  think or want or hope will happen, but learning to read the
• 25:37
  market. What is the market telling you?
• 25:40
  Where is the line and how did it open?
• 25:41
  How is it moved? Where are the percentages, bets
• 25:44
  and dollars? Where's the public, where the
• 25:45
  system matches? Where's the rhythm edge?
• 25:48
  Again, if this style of betting appeals to you and you want to
• 25:51
  learn more about data-driven betting or you have a friend in
• 25:54
  your life who struggles and needs to learn a little bit more
• 25:57
  about how to manage their bankroll or read lines or go
• 26:00
  contrarian, guess what? I wrote a book, I'm very proud
• 26:03
  of it. It's called the Everything Guide
• 26:04
  to Sports Betting. Just pick up a copy for you or
• 26:07
  for a friend, can get it very easily and quickly.
• 26:10
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 26:13
  betting. But it's got everything I've
• 26:14
  learned in the industry since I've been working here in the
• 26:17
  industry since 2011 over a long time.
• 26:21
  Now at this point, I'm a veteran.
• 26:23
  I'm what, a 14 year veteran at this point.
• 26:25
  But anyway, it's got everything I've learned in the industry,
• 26:27
  how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 26:30
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 26:32
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 26:35
  a bankroll management plan, chapters on all the major
• 26:38
  sports, all included in the everything guide to sports
• 26:41
  betting. So pick one up.
• 26:42
  It'll mean a lot to me guys. And when I see at the sports
• 26:45
  book, walk over to me, I'll sign it for you, I'll buy you a beer
• 26:49
  or ginger ale and we'll sweat some data-driven plays together
• 26:52
  next. Have you taken advantage of
• 26:54
  rhythm and juice Real. You hear me talk about it every
• 26:56
  single day on the pod. Why do I do it?
• 26:58
  Cuz it helps me win. I want it to help you win.
• 27:00
  So rhythm great for their AI backed models and predictions
• 27:03
  for both game bets and player props Juice reel great for a
• 27:07
  variety of different reasons. You can just tail if you want
• 27:10
  the best bets that come out from robo Jackson each day.
• 27:13
  You can also make take advantage of the arbitrage risk ratio
• 27:17
  suggested bets each day. You can get detailed breakdowns
• 27:20
  for bets and dollars in every game spread money line in total,
• 27:23
  and that money comes from real money actually wagered by people
• 27:26
  who have synced their sports books up to Juice Reel.
• 27:30
  And then of course, you're also going to get great opportunities
• 27:34
  in terms of sharp mush for looking at where the games where
• 27:37
  you have heavy respective money on one side and the dumb $5 bets
• 27:41
  from average Joe's at the bar on the other side.
• 27:43
  So both Rhythm and Juice Real are great.
• 27:45
  And you can go sign up and begin a 7 day free trial for both by
• 27:48
  clicking the custom links that are located in the description
• 27:51
  of the podcast. If you're listening on Spotify
• 27:53
  or iTunes, it'll say something like today, for example, in
• 27:56
  episode 138, Josh dishes out a 5 pack of sweats across across
• 28:02
  NFL, college football, WMEANHL, yadda yadda yadda.
• 28:04
  Scroll down. You're going to see a couple
• 28:07
  links there for rhythm and juice Real Click those custom links,
• 28:10
  then you'll be ready to go to start your 7 day free trial.
• 28:14
  But that about does it everybody.
• 28:15
  Of course, I'll leave you with a couple things.
• 28:17
  First, whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin
• 28:20
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 28:22
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 28:26
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
• 28:29
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 28:31
  Out in the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
• 28:33
  Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible
• 28:36
  is found, the South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays
• 28:39
  jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 28:41
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, you can just walk up to
• 28:44
  me and flash me a Mets ticket. I know it was a one and two
• 28:48
  night, but boy was that Mets game a thriller.
• 28:52
  Heart beating Lindor goes yard. What a great hit that was the
• 28:55
  New York Mets, Padres, New Mexico State in particular New
• 28:59
  Mexico State, that was honestly the worst looking like they
• 29:02
  should be relegated. They should end their program.
• 29:04
  That was absolutely pathetic. New Mexico State, you're voted
• 29:07
  off the island. You stink.
• 29:08
  But anyway, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you were
• 29:11
  posted at the book and sweat some sharp contrain plays
• 29:13
  together Anyway, as always, whether you're 1 and 2, two and
• 29:17
  one two and OO and two, you guys know the drill.
• 29:20
  We always stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
• 29:22
  So remember, if we can find that system match that we look for
• 29:26
  each day, bypass the games that have red flags, get down the
• 29:30
  games that check off the boxes against the public with the
• 29:32
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
• 29:36
  line value. If we can do that, we're going
• 29:38
  to be successful sports bettors. So hope to see all you guys at
• 29:41
  4:00 Eastern Time on Twitter, the live stream now known as X.
• 29:46
  Again, I'll be coasting office hours with Rhythm and my buddy
• 29:50
  Brian. Hope to see you guys there.
• 29:51
  If not, I'll see you tomorrow for a big Friday.
• 29:54
  And I'll just give you a little hint.
• 29:55
  I really like a pointing UFC system match for tomorrow.
• 30:00
  I'll tell you what it is on tomorrow's podcast, which will
• 30:03
  be episode 139 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod.
• 30:07
  Have a great thirsty Thursday night and good luck everybody.
• 30:10
  Take care.