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Florida Dems Shocked as DSA Radical Wins Senate Primary · 3 Martini Lunch – Political Humor & Commentary

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Three Martini Lunch.
0:04
Speaker 2: Grab a stool next to Greg Corumbus of Radio America
0:07
Speaker 2: and Jim Garritty of National Review.
0:10
Speaker 1: Free Martini's coming up.
0:13
Speaker 3: So glad to have you with us for the Wednesday
0:15
Speaker 3: edition of the Three More Tindy Lunch. Jim Garrity is back,
0:18
Speaker 3: thanks to Charlie Cook for filling in Monday and Tuesday
0:21
Speaker 3: and Jim. Yesterday was supposed to be a relatively quiet
0:25
Speaker 3: primary night. We've got some big races coming up in
0:28
Speaker 3: Florida and Alaska. But the primary night was supposed to
0:30
Speaker 3: be pretty cut and dry. Did not turn out that way,
0:33
Speaker 3: particularly in the Florida Democratic Senate primary. Ashley Moody, of course,
0:38
Speaker 3: was appointed by Ron DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio after
0:41
Speaker 3: he became Secretary of State. But now she's got to
0:44
Speaker 3: win the seat here for her own in twenty twenty six,
0:46
Speaker 3: and if she wins, she'll have to do it again
0:48
Speaker 3: in two years. But the Democrats thought that they had
0:51
Speaker 3: their candidate locked in for the general election. And Alexander Vindmann,
0:55
Speaker 3: you might remember him as the witness in the Trump
0:59
Speaker 3: impeachment number one over the perfect phone call with Ukraine,
1:02
Speaker 3: and I think everybody on the right got discussed with him.
1:05
Speaker 3: The second Devin Nunas said okay, so mister Vinman, and
1:08
Speaker 3: he interrupted and said, excuse me, that's Lieutenant Colonel Vinman.
1:12
Speaker 3: And so anyway, he was supposed to lap the field
1:14
Speaker 3: yesterday in the Democratic primary over socialist state lawmaker Angie Nixon.
1:20
Speaker 3: Vinman raised sixteen million dollars, Angie Nixon less than a million.
1:25
Speaker 3: But Angie Nixon, not to be confused with Richard wins
1:28
Speaker 3: more than fifty six to forty four. And she is DSSA.
1:34
Speaker 3: She says, Oh, I just joined DSSA. You know, I'm
1:36
Speaker 3: a mom, and I'm a wife, and I'm a community organizer.
1:39
Speaker 3: So you know, just the fact that I just joined.
1:41
Speaker 3: To pay no attention to that. But if you want
1:44
Speaker 3: to know what Angie Nixon is like, this is her
1:46
Speaker 3: on the floor of the Florida Legislature not long ago.
1:49
Speaker 3: I think this is when they just redrew the maps gym.
1:52
Speaker 3: I'm not entirely sure. She's dressed in what I would
1:54
Speaker 3: call bright pink, with a pink megaphone to match, which
1:58
Speaker 3: of course makes you it was totally spontaneous and not
2:01
Speaker 3: a plan protest to disrupt the proceedings on the Florida
2:04
Speaker 3: the Legislature at all. Yeah, in Tennessee that I'll get
2:27
Speaker 3: you kicked out of a state legislature, but not in Florida.
2:30
Speaker 3: Apparently well, Ashley Moody enjoying it very much and amazingly.
2:34
Speaker 3: Even though I'm just sure she expected to write against Vinman,
2:38
Speaker 3: she was ready to set the matchup between her and Nixon.
2:41
Speaker 4: I don't care if you are a Republican, an Independent,
2:45
Speaker 4: or a Democrat. This election is so much more than
2:52
Speaker 4: voting for a person for the United States Senate. This
2:57
Speaker 4: is about voting for the future of this country. Will
3:02
Speaker 4: this country remain true to the ideals that our founding
3:05
Speaker 4: fathers promised two hundred and fifty years ago, or will
3:10
Speaker 4: this country move forward higher taxes, big government, government seizure
3:17
Speaker 4: of private production, government controlling everything about your life, government
3:23
Speaker 4: undermining and abolishing every institution that protects your safety and
3:27
Speaker 4: your rights. There could not be a more extreme difference
3:33
Speaker 4: and candidates than what will be on the ballot this November.
3:37
Speaker 3: Nixon's win might also be bad news for the Democratic
3:39
Speaker 3: gubernatorial nominee David Jolly. That's expected to be a tighter
3:42
Speaker 3: race between him and Republican nominee Byron Donald so jolly
3:46
Speaker 3: with some verbal gymnastics last night, Jim on the one
3:48
Speaker 3: hand saying, Oh, I'm nothing like the socialists, and on
3:50
Speaker 3: the other hand saying, you know, Angie Nixon and I,
3:53
Speaker 3: we're not all that different. Just a matter of strategy.
3:56
Speaker 2: Is this a state Florida that can elect you as
3:58
Speaker 2: governor but also a elect progressive Angie Nixon for the
4:02
Speaker 2: US Senate at the same time, Well, we're going to
4:06
Speaker 2: find out. We're going to find out. Look, I reject
4:08
Speaker 2: the DSA, I reject socialism. I'm a capitalist, and I
4:11
Speaker 2: think capitalism provides the greatest amount of economic mobility. I
4:15
Speaker 2: have been with Angie on the trail, and I'll tell
4:17
Speaker 2: you this, She's a fighter. She leaves it all on
4:19
Speaker 2: the field. She goes in every room talking about what
4:21
Speaker 2: I talk about. Can we improve your access to housing,
4:24
Speaker 2: affordable housing, to healthcare? Do you know where to educate
4:27
Speaker 2: your kids? What is it a government can do where
4:29
Speaker 2: the private sector is unable to improve your life? Angie's
4:32
Speaker 2: out there fighting for those same values. I think she
4:35
Speaker 2: and I have a very different approach to this. Look,
4:38
Speaker 2: I reject socialism, I'm a capitalist. We'll see how Florida's
4:40
Speaker 2: voters sort that out in November.
4:43
Speaker 3: So we'll get to some other election results in a minute, Jim.
4:45
Speaker 3: But what's your reaction to that mess for the Democrats?
4:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, warning to viewers and listeners, this is a very
4:51
Speaker 1: Florida heavy episode, becau, As I like to say, there's
4:54
Speaker 1: a lot to unpack here. And as a big vacation state,
4:57
Speaker 1: this is where you bring your suitcases, so there's a
4:59
Speaker 1: lot of that. First of all, Greg between George Conway
5:03
Speaker 1: coming like fourth out of five in a house primary
5:07
Speaker 1: up in New York and Vinman, this is not the
5:10
Speaker 1: year to run as a candidate of resistance one point zero.
5:14
Speaker 1: I think that the Democrats are tired of everybody's like
5:17
Speaker 1: I remember in Trump's first term where I stood up
5:19
Speaker 1: against him and yes, and eventually we ended up with
5:22
Speaker 1: trumps second term. So you were not We're not playing
5:25
Speaker 1: the hits from twenty eighteen anymore, not interested. He was
5:29
Speaker 1: one of the flying Vinman brothers from that famous circus act.
5:33
Speaker 1: It turns out we will have Nixon to kick around
5:35
Speaker 1: for a few more years, at least an other couple
5:37
Speaker 1: of months. But here's the weird thing which she says
5:40
Speaker 1: Greg that she's not a longtime member of the DSA
5:42
Speaker 1: that she just joined. Look, you and I have vehement,
5:46
Speaker 1: deep oppositions to, you know, to the DSA and their members,
5:50
Speaker 1: but at least they have principles. This is a bandwagon
5:53
Speaker 1: DSA member, This is a wanna be somebody who just
5:55
Speaker 1: jumped Oh I'm with them. Wait a minute, you know,
5:58
Speaker 1: like we what what's the upside of that is? Like, oh,
6:01
Speaker 1: now that I know that they're extreme, now I know
6:03
Speaker 1: I'm really for that. When she we saw that the
6:06
Speaker 1: footage of her on the floor of the legislature, Greg,
6:10
Speaker 1: I just assume many listeners have been in some place
6:13
Speaker 1: in public where somebody has a meltdown, whether somebody is
6:17
Speaker 1: just freaking out because their coffee order was wrong, or
6:20
Speaker 1: they start, you know, flipping out, Like everyone just kind
6:23
Speaker 1: of awkwardly like tries not to make eye contact with
6:26
Speaker 1: the crazy person. Everybody in the Florida State Legislature was
6:29
Speaker 1: trying to not make eye contact with her. They were
6:31
Speaker 1: just kind of embarrassed. It's just kind of a maybe
6:33
Speaker 1: if we just look at the other direction, she'll go
6:35
Speaker 1: away or something that was kind of weird. Let's also
6:38
Speaker 1: point out, like so Vinman outraised her by like fourteen
6:41
Speaker 1: or fifteen times, Like Vinman had all the money and
6:45
Speaker 1: she running on I am the relatively recent DSA wackadoodle
6:50
Speaker 1: managed to beat him, which I think is, you know,
6:52
Speaker 1: rather like either the establishment is collapsing or DSA really
6:55
Speaker 1: does have excitement in the Democratic Party base. Florida is
6:59
Speaker 1: not a cheap state to run a statewide campaign, and
7:03
Speaker 1: a lot of media markets, relatively high advertising rates. You know,
7:07
Speaker 1: it's eight hours from one side of the state to
7:09
Speaker 1: the other. It's deceptively large, Like, this is not an
7:12
Speaker 1: easy state. So you can't do this on a shoe string.
7:14
Speaker 1: So if you're a Democrat, I think you're looking at
7:17
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of other Senate races and saying I'm
7:20
Speaker 1: going to do it there. You know, Ashley Moody traditionally,
7:23
Speaker 1: an appointed senator doesn't have the full advantages of incumbency
7:27
Speaker 1: that somebody who's running for a second term has. I
7:29
Speaker 1: think she's breathing very easily. I think this is a
7:31
Speaker 1: circumstance of REPUBLICO. Yes, we've said this about Texas. We
7:34
Speaker 1: talked about that a couple of days ago. Florida maybe
7:37
Speaker 1: the all time champion state of oh the Democrats really
7:40
Speaker 1: have a shot this year and then losing by a
7:42
Speaker 1: terrible margin. Probably christ versus DeSantis is the old time champion,
7:46
Speaker 1: but really they have this traditional history of underperforming. The
7:48
Speaker 1: Florida Democratic Party is in a really rough shape. I
7:51
Speaker 1: see no reason why that's going to change between now
7:54
Speaker 1: and November. And I think that they really thought at
7:56
Speaker 1: least Vinman would have had that you know, national un
8:00
Speaker 1: raising network up until you know, I think last night
8:03
Speaker 1: most Americans had never heard of Angie Dixon and that's
8:06
Speaker 1: probably not going to be any help the David Jolly.
8:10
Speaker 1: I can't wait for the I'm not that different from
8:12
Speaker 1: the socialist candidate ads to start running in Miami airwaves. Like,
8:17
Speaker 1: socialism is not popular amongst Cuban Americans, and there are
8:21
Speaker 1: quite a few of them in South Florida, so you
8:23
Speaker 1: really don't want to emphasize that. I don't know if
8:25
Speaker 1: you can say, oh, Byron Donalds has this absolutely locked up.
8:27
Speaker 1: I think Jolly will give him a tougher race, but
8:29
Speaker 1: I don't want to getterested. Do we want to talk
8:31
Speaker 1: about James Fishback, the absolute nut job who you know,
8:35
Speaker 1: got what less than ten percent like, well, I'm really
8:38
Speaker 1: glad the New Yorker did that ten thousand work profile
8:40
Speaker 1: on him, Like, this guy was always nuts, it was
8:43
Speaker 1: always a maniac, was always, you know, an extremist, and
8:47
Speaker 1: I don't, you know, as a right of center guy,
8:49
Speaker 1: I don't like that. I also know the game of
8:51
Speaker 1: the mainstream media is to spotlight the worst Republican candidates possible.
8:56
Speaker 1: So the Averone's like, oh my god, Republicans are a
8:57
Speaker 1: bunch nuts jobs. I should never vote for them. Well,
9:00
Speaker 1: it turns out Republicans don't like Republican nut jobs either.
9:02
Speaker 1: And we could throw in Dan Bilzarian, who used to
9:05
Speaker 1: be the Hugh Hefner guy and who basically said, after
9:08
Speaker 1: being you know, known for being surrounded by scantily clad women,
9:11
Speaker 1: is like, you know what I really need to do
9:13
Speaker 1: Holocaust denial, anti Israel stuff and intermittent praise for Hitler.
9:18
Speaker 1: That was the brand switch that he felt like he
9:21
Speaker 1: really needed. There. I got to tell you, Nazism not
9:24
Speaker 1: nearly as popular as naked women. I'm just gonna say
9:26
Speaker 1: I've been putting that out there. Extensive market research is revealed.
9:30
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's one of the other lot of house
9:32
Speaker 3: races to pay attention to but Randy Fine, who replaced
9:36
Speaker 3: Mike Waltz in the House when Waltz originally became National
9:39
Speaker 3: Security Advisor. He beat Baalzarian quite convincingly in that district.
9:43
Speaker 3: Last night, in other House races over in Florida twenty,
9:47
Speaker 3: Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins in What You Know that she'd
9:51
Speaker 3: been criticized for running in the black district, and so
9:54
Speaker 3: she wins with forty five percent of the vote over
9:57
Speaker 3: four black candidates. So if they had consolidated one black candidate,
10:01
Speaker 3: she probably would have been defeated, but apparently they couldn't
10:03
Speaker 3: do that. One of the four was Sheila Shirphillis McCormick,
10:06
Speaker 3: who of course resigned the seat because she's super corrupt
10:10
Speaker 3: and was basically forced to resign. And then also Corey
10:13
Speaker 3: Mills is gone. Corey Mills, with a lot of ex
10:16
Speaker 3: girlfriend problems, revenge porn, allegations of assault, things like that,
10:19
Speaker 3: loses to a Republican named Ryan Elijah and Jim the
10:22
Speaker 3: little nugget that I found here. While Ryan Elijah will
10:25
Speaker 3: go up against Democrat Bail Dalton in the general election,
10:29
Speaker 3: finishing third on the Democratic side, our old friend Alan Grayson,
10:34
Speaker 3: who has been running and losing every two years since
10:37
Speaker 3: he left Congress to try to run for senat a
10:39
Speaker 3: decade ago, and he just keeps getting worse and worse
10:43
Speaker 3: and worse results. So he's still there, he's still alive,
10:46
Speaker 3: and even the Democrats want nothing to do with him.
10:48
Speaker 1: Well, Greg, I guess everybody needs a hobby.
10:52
Speaker 3: As you mentioned with Baalzarian and Fishback, who I'm really
10:55
Speaker 3: happy he did so poorly. Ari Fleischer, I think with
10:58
Speaker 3: the quote of the night on those guys can grats
11:00
Speaker 3: to the Republicans for taking out the trash last night.
11:03
Speaker 1: But let's also point out that, like, you know, Nazism,
11:06
Speaker 1: anti Semitism, when you're anti Zionism just terms to full spectrum.
11:12
Speaker 1: I hit old Jews kind of stuff that's like really
11:15
Speaker 1: a bad we hate it everywhere. But you're going to
11:19
Speaker 1: run for Congress in Florida on that. Have you checked
11:23
Speaker 1: out the demographics of Florida. It's not it's not like
11:26
Speaker 1: Jews are unheard of out there. They refer to Central
11:31
Speaker 1: Florida as God's waiting room, like it's all Jewish retirement communities.
11:34
Speaker 1: So like, why would you know, I know the district
11:36
Speaker 1: might be a little bit different, but nonetheless like there's
11:39
Speaker 1: not any good state to run that's on that stance,
11:42
Speaker 1: but this is probably one of the worst ones to
11:44
Speaker 1: run it.
11:46
Speaker 3: Oh Man, that state turned out to be a lot
11:48
Speaker 3: more fun last night than than we thought. And a
11:51
Speaker 3: lot of people asking, you know, why can't every state
11:53
Speaker 3: GOP votes as fast as Florida. We knew the results
11:56
Speaker 3: pretty darn early last night. All Right, Well, if you
11:58
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12:01
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Speaker 3: com slash three m L all right, Jim. Next Tuesday
13:18
Speaker 3: will be the runoff in the South Carolina special Senate primary.
13:22
Speaker 3: Last Tuesday, last week, we got it down to two
13:25
Speaker 3: Darlene Graham, the sister of Lindsey Graham, as well as
13:27
Speaker 3: Congressman Ralph Norman. Last night was the one debate before
13:32
Speaker 3: the runoff. It was hosted by Newsmax. I think the
13:35
Speaker 3: real winners of this debate were the people asking the questions.
13:37
Speaker 3: But this is the moment that could potentially be a
13:41
Speaker 3: big problem for Darlene Graham last night, in addition to
13:43
Speaker 3: the fact that she seemed to be reading a lot
13:45
Speaker 3: of her answers. But this was the question from Greta
13:48
Speaker 3: Van Suster and really about China policy, but that's specifically
13:52
Speaker 3: about Taiwan.
13:53
Speaker 5: Senator, Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security
13:57
Speaker 5: issues for the United States? If so, I'm sorry, could
14:03
Speaker 5: you repeat the quick? Are Taiwan and the South China
14:05
Speaker 5: Sea national security issues for the United States? And if so,
14:09
Speaker 5: lie or.
14:10
Speaker 6: How I'm just going to be honest here. I'm not
14:14
Speaker 6: on national security that I'm not that informed on national security,
14:18
Speaker 6: so but I do support the military. My brother was
14:24
Speaker 6: in the Air Force for thirty three years, so I
14:27
Speaker 6: will do everything I can to support the military. My
14:31
Speaker 6: dad was in the army. I'm not a polished politician
14:35
Speaker 6: up here. I'm national security is not my thing, not
14:39
Speaker 6: my area of expertise. But I do support the military.
14:42
Speaker 3: National security is not my thing, so, Jim, I mean,
14:47
Speaker 3: certain people specialize in some things over the other, but
14:50
Speaker 3: you should pretty well have a good idea what's going
14:53
Speaker 3: on with China. They're one of the biggest adversaries we've got.
14:56
Speaker 1: First of all, Greg I was surprised to see that
14:57
Speaker 1: question answered by my I'm gonna say, old friend like
15:00
Speaker 1: you used to be on gretav and Sustern's program on
15:02
Speaker 1: Fox News way back in the day, you know, and
15:05
Speaker 1: she was a lovely host who very rarely understood why
15:08
Speaker 1: I was being sarcastic, and so I would say something
15:11
Speaker 1: very snarky, and she would act absolutely deadpan as if
15:14
Speaker 1: I meant what I'd said. So glad to see Greta
15:17
Speaker 1: is still in the news environment. This probably is on
15:20
Speaker 1: the top ten worst debate answers I've ever seen that
15:23
Speaker 1: This is really and I don't know if only come
15:25
Speaker 1: out like you know, it's up to the people of
15:26
Speaker 1: South Carolina. But like I look at this and I'm like, Okay,
15:29
Speaker 1: Ralph Dorman, you're my senator because you can't say that.
15:34
Speaker 1: You can't. I'm not a polished politician, Okay, but you
15:37
Speaker 1: are a current US senator. It's not been a couple
15:41
Speaker 1: of weeks now, like you and I have been. First
15:43
Speaker 1: of all, everybody in the state, everybody in the country
15:45
Speaker 1: has deep sympathy with her for losing her brother. I
15:48
Speaker 1: think everybody when she was named the interim senator was
15:52
Speaker 1: okay with it, but kind of had this sense of like, Okay, well,
15:55
Speaker 1: if you want the full six year term, you're going
15:57
Speaker 1: to have to earn it, and you're going to have
15:59
Speaker 1: to demonstrate not just you. You could explain your views,
16:02
Speaker 1: what you think, what you want to do with this
16:04
Speaker 1: Senate seat over the next six years in the course
16:07
Speaker 1: of these interviews and debates. And you can't say, if
16:11
Speaker 1: national security is not your thing, what is like, because
16:16
Speaker 1: like everyone kind of a soup oh like because remember
16:18
Speaker 1: everyone's like, oh, she must she'll probably vote the way
16:20
Speaker 1: her brother did. Okay, but her brother was also like
16:23
Speaker 1: really well informed with this. And by the way, the
16:25
Speaker 1: question was, is China and Taiwan a national security Like
16:29
Speaker 1: the answer is yes, right, there's really no good answer
16:32
Speaker 1: for no. You could talk about it economically. You could
16:35
Speaker 1: talk about it in terms of chip production, you could
16:37
Speaker 1: talk about it in terms of our Pacific alliances, you
16:39
Speaker 1: could talk about it in the you know, creating this
16:41
Speaker 1: sense the strong can dominate the week. Like there's all
16:45
Speaker 1: kinds of ramifications of this, and she basically she punted,
16:48
Speaker 1: Basically she's like I support the military. Well, look, if
16:52
Speaker 1: you support the military, maybe you need to brush up
16:55
Speaker 1: on these issues, and you need to do it before
16:58
Speaker 1: the big debate, like the just it's not only they
17:00
Speaker 1: grabbed her on the street and ambushed her like she
17:02
Speaker 1: knew she was up on debate, on a debate stage,
17:05
Speaker 1: and like China and that's not an obscure issue, that's
17:08
Speaker 1: this is not you know, Nagano, Kara Bach or Azerbaijan
17:13
Speaker 1: or something like that, where maybe you haven't paid that
17:15
Speaker 1: much attention to like this. This was really bad and
17:18
Speaker 1: I just kind of am left, like I can't it's
17:22
Speaker 1: very hard to have confidence in her senator where she
17:25
Speaker 1: she couldn't tap dance an answer, She couldn't talk about jijinping.
17:30
Speaker 1: She couldn't like okay, maybe she's never been to Taiwan, okay,
17:33
Speaker 1: maybe like she can't go into details about what arms
17:36
Speaker 1: ex sports Okay, fine, basically question do it does this matter?
17:40
Speaker 1: And if so, why is it important? And she couldn't
17:43
Speaker 1: answer that. That's really really bad. And I don't know
17:46
Speaker 1: if Ralph Dorman won the runoff last night, but I
17:49
Speaker 1: think he certainly can say, Look, I've been here for
17:51
Speaker 1: a while, I know what I'm talking about.
17:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I watched a dacent amount of its debate,
17:56
Speaker 3: and some of the I think the questions were better
17:58
Speaker 3: than the answers from both of them. In a lot
17:59
Speaker 3: of situations, it's like, hey, our debt's pushing forty trillion dollars,
18:02
Speaker 3: Now what are you going to do? And they're both
18:04
Speaker 3: talking about fraud. Neither one of them will touch retirement entitlements,
18:07
Speaker 3: except when there was a specific question about Social Security
18:09
Speaker 3: go going down in six years unless something's done, And
18:13
Speaker 3: they're like, well, we need to find out dead people
18:16
Speaker 3: and make sure that they're not still getting benefits. I'm like,
18:18
Speaker 3: tip of the iceberg, people, tip of.
18:19
Speaker 1: The ice that's not why the systems go.
18:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's you know, do all that stuff. Definitely read
18:25
Speaker 3: out the fraud, find the people who died long time ago,
18:27
Speaker 3: make sure they're not still getting check somehow. But there's
18:30
Speaker 3: more significant things that need to be done here. But yeah,
18:33
Speaker 3: I mean there's a lot of people, I think who
18:35
Speaker 3: are frustrated that after she took the interim job, all
18:38
Speaker 3: of a sudden, Trump's like, hey, you should be the
18:41
Speaker 3: senator for the next six years, and she decided to
18:42
Speaker 3: do it. And I think there's some people down there
18:44
Speaker 3: who feel like that was a bit of a switcheroo
18:46
Speaker 3: on them, and it's pretty intense if you follow anything
18:50
Speaker 3: on Twitter related to this race. They're very passionate feelings
18:53
Speaker 3: on both sides of this. So I haven't seen any
18:55
Speaker 3: polling on this, and as we're about to find out,
18:57
Speaker 3: you can't necessarily believe all the polls. But I think
19:00
Speaker 3: it's going to be an interesting, interesting result next week.
19:03
Speaker 3: We'll find out. But last night not the greatest night
19:07
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Speaker 1: You know, Greg, I'm sure that probably Darlene Graham's campaign
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Speaker 3: dot Com code three m L. All right, Jim. It's
20:32
Speaker 3: been a couple different primaries, specifically in the Midwest, Michigan
20:35
Speaker 3: and Wisconsin, where the results did not match the late polls,
20:40
Speaker 3: not even close. In Michigan, we talked about how I'll
20:42
Speaker 3: say ed was up easily double digits, he barely won.
20:45
Speaker 3: And then last week Francesca Hang seemed to be up
20:47
Speaker 3: in some cases close to thirty points, ended up losing
20:50
Speaker 3: narrowly to David Crowley. And now we might know at
20:53
Speaker 3: least one of the reasons why that polling was so
20:55
Speaker 3: far off. Median Strategies quote unquote it's at this statement yesterday.
21:01
Speaker 3: Median Strategies has concluded its polling project and will not
21:04
Speaker 3: publish additional polls. All previously published polling releases have been
21:08
Speaker 3: withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine
21:11
Speaker 3: polling data. Median Strategies was created as a short term
21:15
Speaker 3: social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and
21:21
Speaker 3: spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification. Thank
21:27
Speaker 3: you for understanding, So Jim, I think they've got the
21:32
Speaker 3: results they wanted from this. Certainly, I think ethically this
21:35
Speaker 3: is a dumpster fire, and whoever's behind this, you know,
21:39
Speaker 3: has obviously had an impact that shouldn't have happened here.
21:42
Speaker 3: But what do you make of this insanity?
21:45
Speaker 1: So Greg, the news is in reruns because maybe at
21:49
Speaker 1: least a decade two decades ago. Daily Coose commissioned Research
21:53
Speaker 1: two thousand. By the way, when the name of your
21:57
Speaker 1: organization is a year from a couple of years ago,
21:59
Speaker 1: it's probably a bad You know, twentieth century Fox is
22:02
Speaker 1: banging its head right now that like they somebody look
22:06
Speaker 1: at their results and said, wait a second, based on
22:08
Speaker 1: these numbers, they don't add up. You can't have these
22:12
Speaker 1: numbers within the sub demographics, say that your sample was this,
22:16
Speaker 1: and end up with the results that you did. And
22:19
Speaker 1: so they started getting challenges and Research two that you know,
22:21
Speaker 1: people writing into Daily Coasts saying, wait a bute, this
22:23
Speaker 1: doesn't make sense. These these numbers can't be what you're
22:26
Speaker 1: saying they are. Daily Coast reached out to Research two thousand,
22:29
Speaker 1: and Research two thousand just suddenly disappeared, like stop answering
22:32
Speaker 1: the phone, stopped responding to emails, all that kind of stuff.
22:35
Speaker 1: So at least that you know media strategies, they say, oh,
22:39
Speaker 1: we actually were lying the whole time. It was a
22:42
Speaker 1: social experiment to see if we could get you guys
22:44
Speaker 1: to cite this stuff. Now it's kind of a you
22:46
Speaker 1: can say, ah, well, people shouldn't you know, I shouldn't
22:49
Speaker 1: pay nearly as much attention to the polls, and that's
22:50
Speaker 1: that's true to a certain extent. I would also say
22:52
Speaker 1: that this is why I tend to look things like
22:54
Speaker 1: the real Clear Politics average, because it's not relying on
22:57
Speaker 1: one polster, which could be conceivably, you know, putting their
23:00
Speaker 1: thumb on the scale or in this case, just making
23:02
Speaker 1: up their numbers. But the you the idea is that
23:05
Speaker 1: hopefully if there is a bad one that ends up
23:07
Speaker 1: in real care of politics. And they basically don't trust.
23:10
Speaker 1: They don't do internal polls by campaigns, they don't do
23:12
Speaker 1: numbers released by the particular by the candidate's campaign. I'm
23:16
Speaker 1: not even sure they put partisan polsters in there anymore. Basically,
23:19
Speaker 1: you look at it, you can get a better sense
23:21
Speaker 1: of these things, but it's all there's just this enormous hunger,
23:23
Speaker 1: how's this candidate doing? How's this kind of you know?
23:25
Speaker 1: And when word came out that like Mike Rogers was
23:28
Speaker 1: up four percentage points on Abdullah Cie, that was a
23:30
Speaker 1: very big deal and that has clearly shaped some of
23:33
Speaker 1: the coverage since the Michigan primary. You could argue that
23:37
Speaker 1: it shouldn't, but when you're talking politics with people, the
23:40
Speaker 1: one thing people want to know, is how's my guy doing,
23:42
Speaker 1: how's the other guy doing? Or are we leading or
23:44
Speaker 1: are we behind? There's this enormous appetite for it, and
23:48
Speaker 1: so nature abhorrors a vacuum. Right. If people don't have
23:51
Speaker 1: the numbers, somebody will come along and say, look, I
23:53
Speaker 1: got the numbers, and they'll create the narrative that they
23:55
Speaker 1: want to. Throughout the Democratic primaries this year, there's been
23:58
Speaker 1: this question. Was a s I ed as far ahead
24:01
Speaker 1: as he seemed to be? Was Francesca Hong is ahead
24:04
Speaker 1: in the Wisconsin governor's races. She seemed to be at
24:06
Speaker 1: least we know in the case of median strategies, they're
24:10
Speaker 1: median liars that basically this is not They're like, they
24:14
Speaker 1: just made up their numbers, and you know, I think
24:17
Speaker 1: this is very dishonest. I think anybody associated with median
24:19
Speaker 1: strategy should have rotten fruit hurled at them in the
24:21
Speaker 1: streets and they should be called liars and all that stuff.
24:24
Speaker 1: And probably anybody who put a lot of stock Like
24:27
Speaker 1: the other thing is also like when I cite polls,
24:29
Speaker 1: I'm generally like Fox News has been around and been
24:32
Speaker 1: doing this for years and years. I've gotten a little
24:34
Speaker 1: skeptical Quinnipiac I think, particularly in their national hole. Basically,
24:37
Speaker 1: any college poll generally has college students calling up people
24:41
Speaker 1: and if it's a cute girl, well yes, I am
24:43
Speaker 1: supporting the Democratic candidate. Why do you ask? How do
24:46
Speaker 1: you doing after this survey? You know? But by the way,
24:48
Speaker 1: that was what happened in two thousand and four, where
24:51
Speaker 1: the first initiative but the word the word was the
24:53
Speaker 1: first exit polls were way off and nobody should be
24:57
Speaker 1: using them because the earlier report was John carry was
24:59
Speaker 1: winning suff Carolina. And if you know anything about South Carolina,
25:02
Speaker 1: we just talked about it. It last Martiti. This was
25:05
Speaker 1: not a it's a deeply Republican state. The moment, and
25:08
Speaker 1: what it was was that you had like, you know,
25:10
Speaker 1: college student girls who were doing the exit poles, and
25:12
Speaker 1: these guys are like, yes, I do it for John Carey.
25:15
Speaker 1: You want to grab something after this, you know, And
25:17
Speaker 1: that was how you ended up with this, you know,
25:18
Speaker 1: numbers that were wildly terribly wrong.
25:20
Speaker 2: I don't know.
25:21
Speaker 1: It sounds like, in the case of media and strategies,
25:22
Speaker 1: is just making stuff up. But it's kind of this
25:24
Speaker 1: giant warning sign, this flashing caution sign, for the media.
25:29
Speaker 1: Don't put too much stock into the numbers of a
25:31
Speaker 1: poles or that you've never heard of before.
25:32
Speaker 3: Now that's a good point. Somebody said yesterday on x
25:35
Speaker 3: that polls at this point are used more to influence
25:38
Speaker 3: races than to reflect them. I think there might be
25:40
Speaker 3: something to that, especially if you're completely fabricating your results
25:44
Speaker 3: like that. But they're going to have an interesting report
25:47
Speaker 3: if I don't know if this was a college thing
25:48
Speaker 3: or if this is some sort of other social experiment,
25:51
Speaker 3: But I think they're going to have a pretty long
25:54
Speaker 3: paper to write here, because I think it did influence
25:55
Speaker 3: the race. It certainly got Tony Evers and a lot
25:58
Speaker 3: of other people panicking and kicking other people out of
26:01
Speaker 3: the race and guy left.
26:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, what was the objective to convince people that Hong
26:07
Speaker 1: was very, very popular when she wasn't? And did that
26:10
Speaker 1: prompt the Evers of the world to come out and say, oh,
26:12
Speaker 1: we got to stop her. So look, if you're gonna lie,
26:16
Speaker 1: lie that the candidate's up by like ninety so there's
26:18
Speaker 1: no way to know, there's no point even bothering exactly.
26:22
Speaker 3: All right, Well, maybe the people buying that social experiment
26:25
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Speaker 3: e LP dot com slash three m l Jim. I
27:28
Speaker 3: think we've established in California has the worst election system
27:31
Speaker 3: in the country. I think Alaska probably has the dumbest
27:34
Speaker 3: election rule in the country. They also have kind of
27:37
Speaker 3: a jungle primary. It's not separated by a party for
27:40
Speaker 3: the major races, but four people advance to the general
27:44
Speaker 3: election instead of two, so then they can use their
27:46
Speaker 3: precious rank choice system, and so the person that wins
27:49
Speaker 3: the plurality if nobody gets to fifty percent, doesn't necessarily
27:53
Speaker 3: get the office. That's how Lisa Murkowski got re elected
27:55
Speaker 3: instead of Kelly Shabako winning that Senate race a couple
27:58
Speaker 3: years ago. So, to no surprise, Mary Peltola, the former
28:02
Speaker 3: Democratic congresswoman, is going to make the runoff in the
28:05
Speaker 3: Senate race, as is the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, but
28:09
Speaker 3: since four people are going to make it, this hasn't
28:11
Speaker 3: been called yet, but looking at the results so far,
28:13
Speaker 3: in about eighty percent in the other Dan Sullivan who
28:16
Speaker 3: got on the ballot and Republicans tried to kick him
28:18
Speaker 3: off to avoid the confusion, he's way back there, but
28:20
Speaker 3: he's in third place, so the Democrats are probably going
28:23
Speaker 3: to get what they want here and have two Dan Sullivan's,
28:25
Speaker 3: which could potentially dilute some of the real Dan Sullivan's
28:28
Speaker 3: votes come November.
28:29
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, if you're looking for a reason for
28:31
Speaker 1: optimism for Republicans, Lisa Murkowski did win as a right
28:35
Speaker 1: in candidate, and Murkowski is not the easiest name to spell.
28:39
Speaker 1: So the idea is that the Alaskans are responsible and
28:42
Speaker 1: don't just fill out their rebellets willy nilly, particularly now
28:46
Speaker 1: when you've got to now do this kind of calculus
28:48
Speaker 1: algebra of well, this one if the moon is rising
28:51
Speaker 1: and sagittarius, your third place choice advances to a round
28:54
Speaker 1: robin tournament with your first and secondary. It's straight out
28:57
Speaker 1: of basketball. It's absolutely ridiculous system there. Instead of the
29:01
Speaker 1: idea of like, which candid do you want? Mark this one?
29:04
Speaker 1: You know, like that's traditionally how we've done elections in
29:07
Speaker 1: this country. Well, now, if you're in this mood, do
29:10
Speaker 1: you want this one? But if you're pairing it with
29:12
Speaker 1: red wine, which candidate do you want to have? You know?
29:15
Speaker 1: So it's on one hand, it's ridiculous. I hope they're
29:17
Speaker 1: listed on the ballot by like their middle initials or like,
29:20
Speaker 1: because the idea of like two Dan Sullivan's with nothing
29:22
Speaker 1: distinguishing them would be absolutely bonkers. And I think Alaska
29:25
Speaker 1: is wise enough to avoid this. On the other hand,
29:28
Speaker 1: I just kind of want to ask this to the Democrat,
29:29
Speaker 1: like yeah, because he says, oh, I always wanted to run,
29:32
Speaker 1: and I'm I was the original Dan Sullivan. You know,
29:35
Speaker 1: it's turning into the you know, two Captain Kirks and
29:38
Speaker 1: the real Captain Kirks said shoot us both spock and
29:40
Speaker 1: that's how we knew which one or unfortunately we don't
29:44
Speaker 1: have that option. Nobody shoot anybody named Dan Sullivan. Don't
29:46
Speaker 1: shoot it and I don't. That is not the point
29:48
Speaker 1: of that anecdote. The point is that it's done of
29:49
Speaker 1: the It's turning into the meme of the Spider Man's
29:52
Speaker 1: pointing at each other. So, you know, like, but let's
29:56
Speaker 1: oppose that because the polota wins because of confusion over
29:59
Speaker 1: two candidates with the same name. Do you think this
30:02
Speaker 1: is going to happen elsewhere in a bunch of other states,
30:04
Speaker 1: that all of a sudden, every candidate, every incumbent, is
30:07
Speaker 1: going to have somebody who just changed their name. Legally
30:09
Speaker 1: it is on the ballot in the same way designed
30:11
Speaker 1: to create computer Is this how we really want to
30:13
Speaker 1: have our you know, like, how do you win a
30:14
Speaker 1: mandate that way, how do you like. Well, it's not
30:17
Speaker 1: that I actually had you know, was was the best candidate,
30:20
Speaker 1: or that voters agreed with me. It's just they were
30:22
Speaker 1: more confused about the names of my opponents. That is
30:25
Speaker 1: not the That's not how elections are supposed to work
30:27
Speaker 1: in this country.
30:28
Speaker 4: No.
30:29
Speaker 3: Two pieces of good news for Senator Sullivan. Not only
30:32
Speaker 3: are the middle initials on the ballot, but I believe
30:34
Speaker 3: it either says senator or incumbent next day.
30:36
Speaker 1: That would be helpful.
30:37
Speaker 3: That's yes, there is some distinction here. But they've tried.
30:42
Speaker 3: There's been a ballot in ESI of the least once
30:44
Speaker 3: maybe twice up in Alaska to abolished rank choice, and
30:46
Speaker 3: it's just barely lost every time. They might be trying
30:50
Speaker 3: it again, I don't know. But anyway, Uh, fun primary night.
30:53
Speaker 3: That was supposed to be kind of boring. Jim, I'll
30:55
Speaker 3: see you tomorrow. See tomorrow, Greg, Jim Garretty, National Review. I'm
30:59
Speaker 3: Greg Corumbus of Radio America. Thanks so much for being
31:01
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31:03
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