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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just told Big Clients to SELL... + Stock Market News 27 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and good morning to you.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: My goal for today is to make you the best informed investor out there.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: When I used to sit on the trading floor of an investment bank, what did we do every morning?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: We got briefed by somebody wiser, older, who got up an hour earlier and explained to us what was about to happen and therefore made us fit to go out there and make the bank money.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: That's exactly my intention here today, so we're going to go through the following Make you the best informed investor out there.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Today, we're going to explain the Wall Street FUD, because I believe that is what this is.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I believe Wall Street is trying to squeeze you out of your investments once again, and I'm going to show you instead which stocks are actually still cheap today and have you understand what matters for your portfolio, which is really what matters to you.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I would imagine you're going to also go through all your favorite stocks and I'm going to do my utmost to answer all your questions, except when someone's being an idiot, which is what the one guy did who I just blocked from the channel because I was feeling sort of powerful this morning, like a little Napoleon, he's got a little bit of power, he's got a block button.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: He's not afraid to use it, all right.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So this is what Goldman Sachs put out this morning, and they are trying to scare you, and probably some of their fun clients, out of some money.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: So let me explain.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: They're basically pointing to this chart.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: What the heck does this chart show?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: This chart shows that the orange line there is 2024, the stock market, the S&P, and it's gone up pretty much as much as it ever has in the history of the stock market since 1928, because the blue line up here is the sort of maximum where we've been there.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: So we're pretty close to that.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So what does that say?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Some people could say well, if you have that strongest start to a year, or that strong a year, the next year must be a disaster.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: A year or that strong a year, the next year must be a disaster.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Well, that, of course, my friends, is not true in the slightest.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: And then Goldman Sachs comes out with this hideous chart where they are trying to tell you what.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: There is a blue line on here and it's basically the P-E ratio price over earnings.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Well, it's basically the stock price divided by profit.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Earnings is a fancy word for profit and you would think, well, if that ratio is really high, bad things about to happen.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: But again, it isn't true in the slightest, because the market does not care about profit.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: The market cares about next year's profit.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: The market is forward-looking and even the highly paid goons at Goldman Sachs know this.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So why they would put out this chart?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Well, I can only think they're trying to scare some people out of some money.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: And here is also something that Goldman Sachs put out Not today, no, because that would have gone against their narrative today.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: This is something they put out a few weeks ago and this is actually correct, for once.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: What does this show you?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: This shows you that here.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: What is here here is the first Fed cut and a lot of what Goldman Sachs is saying there.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: You know the bankers with the big heart are trying to make you poor.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Although, given that you guys are not smashing the like button, maybe you feel similarly about me.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Basically, what it's saying is that the market goes up when the market goes up, when you have a normal rate cut cycle, so when you get slow and steady rate cuts.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: That's what you want.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: You want slow rate cuts.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: You know what happens.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: When you get fast rate cuts, bad stuff happens.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Stock market falls.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: When you get slow rate cuts, which is the green line here, I'm going to juggle some colors in the two years after the first rate cut, we go up by how much?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: About 50%.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So the best thing for the Fed to say and do is say we're going to cut slowly because the economy is wonderful, the US economy is strong, we love the US consumer and therefore we're going to go slow and gradual.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: And what did the Fed just say?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Incoming data genuinely remained consistent with inflation returning sustainably to 2%.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could have used a lot less words, right?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Incoming wasn't required, generally wasn't required.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Remained wasn't required.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Return wasn't sustainably.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Wasn't basically data consistent with inflation of 2%?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: That's what they're trying to say.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Just they like to use a lot of words.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: They sit in wood-paneled rooms.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Who would do such a thing?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So what does it therefore say?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: The market is very, very likely to keep going up.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: And you know what happens after the market goes up like 25%, like this year.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: It tends to go up massively the following year.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Well, good things follow good things.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: We have a good economy, we have a strong economy, we have falling interest rates gradually.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: No one's freaking panicking.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: And then here is the data that Goldman Sachs didn't want you to know.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: And it isn't like they don't have the data.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, they pay like millions of dollars of data.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, I leave it up to you to speculate why they're not telling you this.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: What is this telling you?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: This is telling you that tech earnings are on an absolute tear and they are above the average growth trajectory.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: You know what that means we're going to get more profits next year.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You know what that means Stocks get cheaper next year.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: And what does that therefore mean?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: It means we need to pick the stocks that have these beautiful earnings coming up and they're growing a lot and we're going to make a lot of money.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how to do that, what do you do?
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: You learn how to pick those breakouts before they actually happen.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: How do you do that?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: You learn how to read stock charts, and it's really really quite simple.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: It's literally four things.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: You need to learn Four things.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Any beginner can learn this.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Anybody can learn this.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: It's not rocket science.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: If the Muppets on Wall Street can do it, you can do it, because they're not the brightest tools, except when they're trying to mislead you.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So to build real wealth, you need to learn to invest in stocks, which is presumably why you're here, which I love you for.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: And look at this the return of what the top seven right, the max seven over the last two years is 148%.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Is your portfolio up 184, 48%?
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Mine's up more than that, not bragging, just stating a fact.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Now the remaining companies, the other ones, the non-Max 7, they went up 35%.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Not terrible.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: In fact, if you went to a financial advisor, he'd tell you that's a marvelous result and you're never going to see that again in a lifetime.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a bollocks result because you picked the wrong stocks, or you bought the index, which I know they tell you is a way to get rich.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: It's better than not buying any stocks.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I grant you that, but it's horr.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Morgy from the uk is asking if this is live.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I hope that answers your question.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Uh, so you're gonna learn how to how to how to how to pick stocks and seriously watch the masterclass.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below phoenix friends and auction.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Get free after this video, sit down for half an hour and watch it and you will walk away with a completely different understanding of how to spot those breakouts.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: But to come back to valuations, which is really what Goldman Sachs is saying out of control and everything is going to collapse, and that sort of nonsense.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Well, the MA and it's gone up tremendously and therefore the valuations are not crazy.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: And this is the past and it's about to get much, much, much, much better.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Let me show you this PE is the worst thing you can look at.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: This PE thing is complete nonsense, completely useless.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: If you must look at those kind of metrics because I don't know you feel like it there is a better one.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: It is called PEG and it takes into account the growth of profits in the next year, and that's the only thing the market cares about.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Nobody cares what Bill Gates did on a certain island, sorry.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: What Microsoft did mine certain island, sorry, what Microsoft did Mine just wandered there, what Microsoft did in the last 12 months, because everybody knows it.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: What we care about is what Microsoft's going to do in the next year.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: That's the basis on which Microsoft is valued, and if you want to factor that in, you've got to look for PEG as in growth, right, and if you know the growth, then you know what's going to happen.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So let me show you this little chart here and again.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: The mapper who made this had two colors.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: He had blue and blue, so I'm going to try and make sense of this In light.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Blue is basically MSCI.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: It's just a global stock market, everything right.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I had a chat with a friend.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Actually, he wanted to put all his money in on it.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I walked him away from the ledge very gently.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know why you want to own everything, because everything is rubbish.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It's only the top 1% or the top 5% that are good, like with anything.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And the dark line is also MSCI.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: So global.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: But tech, and this is the valuation, and guess what?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Tech is valued the same way as the rest of the stock market if you take into account the growth and profits in the next year.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So, yes, tech is actually cheap, right?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Kilgore says growth is a projection.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: It's true, but the market is based on projections.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: This typically we beat projections historically.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Because companies tell you a growth that they're going to hit and then they try to overdeliver.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: That's basically the way it works, right?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: The PCE data is delayed today, christy, I also was staring at that at 8.30, and then it didn't come, and then it's now at 10 o'clock, right.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: What's going on over there?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe they didn't massage the numbers quite enough.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: 10 o'clock, right.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: What's going on over there?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Maybe they didn't massage the numbers quite enough.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Now there are some stocks in tech that are not worth owning.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: This is one of them.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: This is Rivian Automotive.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: They got given $6.5 billion by Biden the insane, and it's going to pay for a plant in Georgia that nobody wants, nobody needs, because they're not selling any cars.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: The last time this glorious government of idiots handed out that kind of money, which was in March this year, they gave about $8 billion, or at least promised $8 billion, to Intel.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: And what happened to the stock price?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Well, it dropped 50%.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So don't buy stuff the government gets involved in, because that's usually a sure sign that it's about to implode.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Email says why not just hold?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Well, you'd be holding Intel, you'd be down 50%.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: You want to hold that?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Paypal looks like a good business, right, but you could have gotten out.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, I would have gotten out here.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: That's where I would have gotten out.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: If I'd been really asleep at the wheel, then I would have gotten out here, right, so I would be down.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Well, minus 20%.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Worst case scenario You're down 50% and you might be down 50% for a year or two or three.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Well, I would take that money and I'd put it into a straight.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: That's going to make me some real money.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So opportunity cost is the problem with buy and hold.