Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Barbara Corcoran: NYC Already Coming Back

Transcript

Barbara Corcoran: NYC Already Coming Back · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now we have uh
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Speaker 1: kind of a special guest right now. Barbara Corkrane joins
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Speaker 1: us from the Corkan Group. Made her famous, of course
0:30
Speaker 1: and wealthy and she sold it. Now she is a
0:33
Speaker 1: judge of Shark on ABC Shark Tank I believing executive
0:37
Speaker 1: producer of that program as well, and she's also got
0:41
Speaker 1: a webinar coming out with a T and T um
0:44
Speaker 1: to help small businesses I guess do better. Barbara, always
0:49
Speaker 1: a pleasure having on the program. Thank you so much
0:51
Speaker 1: for joining us. Talk to me first about this webinar.
0:54
Speaker 1: What are you doing? What are you doing with a
0:55
Speaker 1: T and T today? It's actually a webinar series and
0:59
Speaker 1: we started a good seven eight months ago. I guess
1:01
Speaker 1: it's called Business Unusual. Its presented by a T and
1:05
Speaker 1: T business and it's intended to help the small business
1:07
Speaker 1: person just succeed more with what they're doing nine to
1:11
Speaker 1: five or small business really nine to nine every day
1:14
Speaker 1: of the week. And so we covered topics that we
1:17
Speaker 1: hear are most in demand, that people are most confused about,
1:22
Speaker 1: and we feel very proud that together we've been able
1:24
Speaker 1: to really push a lot of businesses ahead and give
1:26
Speaker 1: them a lot of support. So, Barbara, you know, it's
1:29
Speaker 1: been obviously such an incredibly difficult time for all businesses,
1:32
Speaker 1: particularly small businesses, over the past eighteen months. What do
1:35
Speaker 1: you think right now is the key challenges that the
1:39
Speaker 1: delta variant? Is it getting labor? What's the primary focus now? Well,
1:46
Speaker 1: let me let me frame by saying, no, matter what
1:49
Speaker 1: the focus is now, and I think that there's three
1:51
Speaker 1: pieces that are may be equally important. Of the one
1:54
Speaker 1: thing that strikes me more than any of the detail
1:57
Speaker 1: is that most business owners feel the worst is behind them.
2:01
Speaker 1: And that sounds kind of odd with all the talk
2:03
Speaker 1: about the delta variant, but the attitude of the Delta
2:06
Speaker 1: variant is so different. Initially with the pandemic. With the pandemic, nobody,
2:10
Speaker 1: no one had confidence. They didn't know what was ahead,
2:13
Speaker 1: they didn't know what it was around the corner and
2:15
Speaker 1: they're scared to death and unable to make changes. But
2:18
Speaker 1: now every one of those entrepreneurs that survived and came
2:21
Speaker 1: through talk about the delta variant is we'll find a way.
2:25
Speaker 1: We'll find a way. And then on top of that,
2:27
Speaker 1: what is terrific now is that a lot of the
2:30
Speaker 1: regulations are being mandated by townships, by states one on one.
2:34
Speaker 1: But at least business people know what's expected of them,
2:37
Speaker 1: their rules to be played by, and that gives them
2:39
Speaker 1: great peace of mind. But the biggest problem you named
2:43
Speaker 1: it on your list and I had to choose only
2:44
Speaker 1: one is finding the right employees. Everybody's competing for employees,
2:49
Speaker 1: and I don't think there's a single industry that doesn't
2:51
Speaker 1: complain about that day in and day out. But there
2:53
Speaker 1: is a way to skin that cat. And some of
2:55
Speaker 1: the best businesses are having no problem at all hiring people.
2:59
Speaker 1: So what is the way? I mean, you just have
3:01
Speaker 1: to pay more or are you looking the wrong way?
3:04
Speaker 1: What's what's the answer? I think I think the number
3:08
Speaker 1: one thing is, uh, they're not People who are not
3:11
Speaker 1: winning in this regard are not creative. The creative people
3:15
Speaker 1: are thinking of lures. Creative wars, whether it be additional pay,
3:19
Speaker 1: which is not that common. Frankly, from what I could see,
3:21
Speaker 1: I think it's overplayed in the media as to how
3:24
Speaker 1: much more businesses are willing to pay. But they're helping
3:27
Speaker 1: to pay for education, for night courses, and more important
3:31
Speaker 1: than that, they're giving flexibility to workers. I'm telling you,
3:34
Speaker 1: when I look at my top performing business is making
3:37
Speaker 1: the most money, their attitude for their employees is that
3:39
Speaker 1: they're working for the employee. That's not a bad place
3:42
Speaker 1: to start if they None of those guys or girls
3:45
Speaker 1: feel like bosses at all. They're trying to figure out
3:48
Speaker 1: what could I make you? What could I do for
3:50
Speaker 1: you to make you happier today? And the number one
3:53
Speaker 1: charm that can charm people to come work for you
3:55
Speaker 1: and stay put is to give people flexibility. Because people
3:58
Speaker 1: have been spoiled, they need to be at home for
4:01
Speaker 1: a lot of reasons. They don't want to commit to
4:03
Speaker 1: commuting anymore. The attitude has changed, and the employer that's
4:07
Speaker 1: smart enough to give them exactly what they're looking for
4:10
Speaker 1: there is cleaning up. It's every It's true of every
4:13
Speaker 1: one of my top performing businesses. By the way, you
4:15
Speaker 1: mentioned commuting, um and I know you're I guess you're
4:18
Speaker 1: you're born in the Garden's date. But I think of
4:20
Speaker 1: you as a quintessential New Yorker. What do you make
4:23
Speaker 1: of Manhattan right now? I was there last month walking
4:26
Speaker 1: up and down Lexington Avenue when I was shocked at
4:28
Speaker 1: how many of the really big box businesses have closed
4:32
Speaker 1: and are emptied out. Um, is Manhattan? Is this it?
4:37
Speaker 1: I mean, are people saying, you know, I've had enough
4:39
Speaker 1: of the big city and I'm out. You know, I've
4:43
Speaker 1: lived in Manhattan long enough to never go for that,
4:46
Speaker 1: because I've never seen it happen. I've seen the claims
4:48
Speaker 1: along the way, O, this is it, this is it''re
4:50
Speaker 1: going to happen. This ain't gonna happen. But one thing
4:53
Speaker 1: I've learned about the city of New York City, it
4:55
Speaker 1: always comes back. It's just a question of when it's
4:58
Speaker 1: coming back and how strong it's coming back. And when
5:01
Speaker 1: it comes back, I'll tell you I learned another thing.
5:03
Speaker 1: It always comes back like three to one in time,
5:05
Speaker 1: bang bang bang bang bang, and you go, WHOA, what happened?
5:08
Speaker 1: The city is already coming back when you walk down
5:11
Speaker 1: Madison Avenue. I'm sure I'm sure you saw, which I see.
5:14
Speaker 1: Roughly fifty percent of the stores are empty black windows.
5:18
Speaker 1: It's depressing, But I'm also seeing construction inside most of
5:21
Speaker 1: those stores from new entrepreneurs, less impressive stores that are
5:25
Speaker 1: making a go of it and getting their rent at
5:28
Speaker 1: half price. And that's what regurgitates the city, that's what
5:31
Speaker 1: gets it back on its feet. Because if there's one
5:33
Speaker 1: thing that New York City does better than any of
5:35
Speaker 1: the city in the world, that reinvents itself, it has to.
5:38
Speaker 1: It's been forced to over the years, and it always
5:41
Speaker 1: rises to the price. So I don't see Manhattan as
5:43
Speaker 1: a problem everybody thinks it is. I think it's just
5:46
Speaker 1: like every other problem we had that was going to
5:48
Speaker 1: put away New York City that never really happened. I
5:52
Speaker 1: think it's just a matter of short time before everyone
5:54
Speaker 1: acknowledges it. And in fact, even apartment prices are up.
5:58
Speaker 1: No one expected that even six months ago. Rental prices
6:01
Speaker 1: are Everybody said, you could get a deal, and you
6:03
Speaker 1: could you get off. Right now, it's about more expensive
6:07
Speaker 1: to live here already. Look how fast our city rebounds.
6:10
Speaker 1: It is the nature of the town. Yeah, So it's interesting, Barbara.
6:14
Speaker 1: One of the things that I guess a lot of
6:16
Speaker 1: businesses big and small learned during the pandemic is the
6:19
Speaker 1: ability to really have a really viable digital presence, you know,
6:24
Speaker 1: whether it's ordering online or picking up at the store,
6:26
Speaker 1: that type of thing. For the small business operator, are
6:29
Speaker 1: they making the necessary investments? Do you think I'm gonna
6:34
Speaker 1: tell you something that might surprise you. The necessary investments
6:38
Speaker 1: that small businesses have to make today to be vibrant
6:43
Speaker 1: in the on the digital platform are next to nothing.
6:46
Speaker 1: The costs of these improvements have come down so dramatically.
6:49
Speaker 1: There's so many options, there's so much competition in that
6:53
Speaker 1: space that they've actually been empowered to make changes very
6:57
Speaker 1: radically and quickly, simply because there are so many options
7:00
Speaker 1: is out there. One of the best things I have
7:02
Speaker 1: personally learned because I don't ever think of technology is
7:06
Speaker 1: my strong suit. I think of people is what I
7:08
Speaker 1: do well with right, But from running all these business
7:12
Speaker 1: Unusual webinar series presented by a T and T business,
7:15
Speaker 1: I have learned that the name of the game is technology.
7:18
Speaker 1: It used to be an extra You've got to be
7:20
Speaker 1: on the digital space, no matter what kind of space
7:22
Speaker 1: you're Now, no, I feel very differently it starts with digital.
7:26
Speaker 1: And when I see all the new businesses opening, and
7:28
Speaker 1: in fact, when I'm on Shark Tank, what I'm listening
7:30
Speaker 1: to the pitch is the only thing I'm investing is
7:32
Speaker 1: the people that understand the digital space. I really have
7:35
Speaker 1: changed my whole attitude because only covid itself could have
7:39
Speaker 1: brought about the radical speed that we've encountered lately. It
7:42
Speaker 1: should have taken five years, but it took us dime month.
7:45
Speaker 1: That's it. It's changed. Is all about digital. It's all
7:48
Speaker 1: about digital. It's absolutely been compressed and we hear that
7:51
Speaker 1: from a lot of guests as well. Barbara, great having
7:53
Speaker 1: you on the program. Thank you so much for joining us.
7:56
Speaker 1: Barbara Corkran as she was saying, she's got a webinar
7:59
Speaker 1: series of a T and T business. Unusual with Barbara Corkran,
8:02
Speaker 1: it's geared towards um well small businesses, stores, marketplaces, restaurants,
8:07
Speaker 1: online merchants. I guess online is everything now and you
8:10
Speaker 1: can watch it online. Her website is eight eight eight
8:15
Speaker 1: Barbara dot com, Triple eight Barbara dot Com. Always great
8:20
Speaker 1: to talk to, the founder of the Corkoran Group. This
8:24
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Well, we've got some big spending bills winding
8:32
Speaker 1: their way through Congress. Financial markets certainly paying attention. They're
8:37
Speaker 1: including UH, especially the fixed income markets in municipal bond
8:41
Speaker 1: markets as well. Michael Jesus, chief US public policy and
8:44
Speaker 1: municipal strategist at Morgan Stanley joins us. Michael, thanks so
8:48
Speaker 1: much for taking the time here. Again, a lot of
8:50
Speaker 1: spending bills getting through Congress looks like they're making some progress,
8:55
Speaker 1: at least in the House and on the Democratic side
8:57
Speaker 1: from your perspective, UM, as a public policy I mean,
9:01
Speaker 1: municipal strategists, what are the issues you're focusing on. Yeah,
9:06
Speaker 1: first and foremost, it is going to be the depths
9:09
Speaker 1: of impact, because that's what we think is going to
9:11
Speaker 1: be the mean feed through to the economic outlook and
9:14
Speaker 1: to the level of treasury yield. UH. In our view,
9:18
Speaker 1: this is tracking towards a total spending number spread over
9:21
Speaker 1: ten years that is approaching four trillion dollars. But then
9:26
Speaker 1: the next question, I think this becomes particularly important given
9:29
Speaker 1: that some procedural hurdles were just clear. The next question
9:32
Speaker 1: is what types of taxes or Democrats gonna raise to
9:35
Speaker 1: offset that spending? And then what's the remaining deficit. Our
9:39
Speaker 1: view is that could probably get to two to two
9:41
Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars of new revenue to offset this.
9:44
Speaker 1: That still means you're looking at a trillion and a
9:46
Speaker 1: half over ten years of new deficits, and it's probably
9:48
Speaker 1: going to be pretty front loaded given how these spending
9:52
Speaker 1: bills have worked out in the past. So maybe it
9:54
Speaker 1: does much as a trillion dollars over five years. All
9:57
Speaker 1: of that, when you mix it in with our expect
10:00
Speaker 1: station that the Fed is gonna start talking taper here, UM,
10:03
Speaker 1: is enough to push yield higher into your end and
10:06
Speaker 1: that's probably gonna matter a lot more than you That's
10:08
Speaker 1: a that's a big statement considering what we've seen thus far. UM,
10:14
Speaker 1: there's been a lot that's enough to push yield higher
10:16
Speaker 1: and it still hasn't done it yet. Yeah, I think
10:21
Speaker 1: that's fair. I think that's fair. Um. But we've got
10:24
Speaker 1: a confluence of events here that we see coming together.
10:26
Speaker 1: There's this legislative package, Uh, there's the FED taper. Also,
10:31
Speaker 1: I think there's improvement in the trajectory of the delta
10:34
Speaker 1: Varan covid Are. Our biotech team which is modeling this
10:37
Speaker 1: for us UM thinks that we're basically at a plateau there.
10:41
Speaker 1: You've also got boosters coming out over the course of
10:44
Speaker 1: the fall, uh, and so all of that should continue
10:48
Speaker 1: to allow consumption, activity, travel activity, etcetera. To pick up
10:52
Speaker 1: that confluence of events to us can be pretty powerful
10:54
Speaker 1: to push field higher, Michael. As we think about funding
10:59
Speaker 1: all these pro rams, are we going to see a
11:00
Speaker 1: revival of the Build America bonds uh that we had before? Yeah,
11:07
Speaker 1: we think so. There's obviously another important interaction with the
11:09
Speaker 1: muni market. UH. This is a program that obviously state
11:14
Speaker 1: governments generally wants, and the Democrats in Congress have supported,
11:20
Speaker 1: in particular Democrats in the House Ways Means Committee. Now,
11:23
Speaker 1: originally a revival of this program was supposed to be
11:26
Speaker 1: in the bipartisan bill. It seems to have been left
11:30
Speaker 1: out of that bill. But this three and a half
11:32
Speaker 1: trillion dollar budget reconciliation bill, we think we'll have plenty
11:34
Speaker 1: of space to include that. UM. That's important because what
11:39
Speaker 1: it does for the muni market over time is will
11:41
Speaker 1: probably shift more of the issuance from tax exempt the
11:44
Speaker 1: taxable market. That's probably good news for investors over the
11:48
Speaker 1: long run because it creates some scarcity value. But we
11:51
Speaker 1: probably take a long time before that market fully developed.
11:55
Speaker 1: Do you see any what's the multiplier when when the
12:00
Speaker 1: general government spends um, you know, a hundred dollars, how
12:04
Speaker 1: much does that boost growth in terms of GDP? Yeah, Well,
12:10
Speaker 1: obviously depends on how they're spending that hundred dollars um
12:15
Speaker 1: our economists, and I think the consensus amongst economists is
12:18
Speaker 1: that hard infrastructure dollar spending tends to have the highest
12:22
Speaker 1: multiplier effect over the long run. It creates the most
12:25
Speaker 1: potential GDP. Uh, you're sort of your next biggest bang
12:29
Speaker 1: for your bucket is if you are taking dollars and
12:31
Speaker 1: giving them to higher marginal propensity to consume cohorts. Right,
12:36
Speaker 1: So a lot of the spending in this bill is
12:39
Speaker 1: directed uh in ways that will impact middle and lower
12:43
Speaker 1: income households UM. And then the taxes are also skewed
12:47
Speaker 1: towards higher income individuals and corporations, which, given their current
12:53
Speaker 1: wealth status, probably is a lower marginal inpency to consume.
12:56
Speaker 1: And so the net effect here plus the depths to
12:58
Speaker 1: affect our economists will probably view very favorably. Hey, Michael,
13:03
Speaker 1: appy got you here. I love to get your thoughts
13:05
Speaker 1: on the taxable municipal bond market has been really a
13:08
Speaker 1: fast growing market and a good performing market as well. Yeah,
13:14
Speaker 1: so there is in the intaxable markets generally, right, so
13:19
Speaker 1: not just the muni market, but the corporate bond market.
13:22
Speaker 1: There one pocket of the market that doesn't have a
13:24
Speaker 1: lot of supply is highly rated long duration taper, something
13:29
Speaker 1: that insurance companies need, banks, me etcetera. And muni bond
13:33
Speaker 1: market can easily fill that demand, and it has been
13:38
Speaker 1: increasingly over the past couple of years because that demand
13:42
Speaker 1: pocket is there, so you brought to build America bond
13:44
Speaker 1: program earlier. This is one of the reasons that this
13:47
Speaker 1: type of program could create a relatively attractive source of
13:51
Speaker 1: capital for municipalities because they can meet that demand that's
13:55
Speaker 1: currently not being met by the corporate bond market by
13:59
Speaker 1: and large. All Right, Michael, always great to get some
14:02
Speaker 1: time with you. Thanks so much for joining us. Michael
14:04
Speaker 1: zesus their chief US public policy and muni strategist at
14:09
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley UM. And this is, you know, a particularly
14:13
Speaker 1: important issue to discuss as we saw and Anti Pelosi
14:18
Speaker 1: getting getting the the Reconciliation bill UM or at least
14:23
Speaker 1: plans for it through the House yesterday. Now that has
14:26
Speaker 1: to go to the Senate and back to the House.
14:27
Speaker 1: Plus we have to deal with the fifty slash one
14:30
Speaker 1: point two trillion dollar bill. In any case, we could
14:32
Speaker 1: be looking at four to five trillion dollars of spending
14:35
Speaker 1: from the federal government. I guess about four trillion in
14:39
Speaker 1: additional spending. Matt. You know, when I was a sell
14:43
Speaker 1: side analystson going out to see clients on the West Coast,
14:46
Speaker 1: my boss wouldn't even pay for a ticket unless I
14:48
Speaker 1: got a meeting with TCW and Capitol Group. Those were
14:51
Speaker 1: the lockdown meetings in Los Angeles. Uh, important folks to
14:55
Speaker 1: chat with. Stephen Kane, He's a group managing director and
14:57
Speaker 1: portfolio manager at t c W. Steve, thanks so much
15:00
Speaker 1: for joining us here. We've got um jackson Hole coming
15:04
Speaker 1: up here. I guess really on Fridays, the big day,
15:07
Speaker 1: what are you looking for? What do you expect? What
15:10
Speaker 1: do you hope not to hear? Well? Uh, good morning
15:14
Speaker 1: and uh and thanks for having me. Um. Yeah. In
15:17
Speaker 1: terms of Jackson Hole, I really wish I could give
15:20
Speaker 1: you and the listeners some exciting prognostication or some off
15:25
Speaker 1: consensus view. But I really think the consensus, which is
15:29
Speaker 1: a fairly benign one UH is probably right, which is
15:32
Speaker 1: that we're not going to get much from Chairman Powell.
15:35
Speaker 1: He's he's likely to recognize that there's been some improvement
15:39
Speaker 1: in the labor market, and he's probably going to balance
15:41
Speaker 1: that with some negative concerns about the delta virus and
15:45
Speaker 1: downside risks. UM. But the bottom line is he's most
15:49
Speaker 1: likely going to stay away from any specifics on taper um,
15:53
Speaker 1: and that's mainly because he wants to maintain flexibility and
15:56
Speaker 1: really not to front run the f O m C,
15:58
Speaker 1: which is really the standard process US by which they
16:01
Speaker 1: make formal pronouncements on on on paper and that type
16:05
Speaker 1: of thing. So as much as we'd like to hear
16:07
Speaker 1: him get into the details of what substantial further progress
16:11
Speaker 1: might mean or something along those lines, I think those
16:14
Speaker 1: types of uh uh evolutions in the in the FED
16:18
Speaker 1: will will occur at the September meeting most likely. What
16:21
Speaker 1: you know, it's I don't see how they can ignore
16:24
Speaker 1: what's going on in the housing market. It's just unbelievable, um,
16:29
Speaker 1: especially for younger you know, first time homebuyers, good luck.
16:34
Speaker 1: Unless you have the cash on hand, you're just not
16:37
Speaker 1: going to get it. Um. How does the FED contribute
16:40
Speaker 1: to that with its merches, with its mortgage bond purchases. Yeah,
16:45
Speaker 1: I don't think the Fed is all that concerned, although
16:49
Speaker 1: they arguably should be about the conditions in the housing
16:52
Speaker 1: market actually the housing you know, their goal is to
16:55
Speaker 1: provide affordable credit UM and assist in that way through
17:00
Speaker 1: the UH purchase of agency mortgages, which are doing to
17:04
Speaker 1: the tune of forty billion a month, so with UH
17:08
Speaker 1: you know, thirty year mortgage rates below three um uh,
17:12
Speaker 1: even though housing prices are high. I think they view
17:16
Speaker 1: their job is controlling the price of credit and not
17:18
Speaker 1: not necessarily the price of the asset UM. So it's
17:22
Speaker 1: a little bit beyond their control, at least that's probably
17:24
Speaker 1: how they're viewing it, all right, Stephen, Looking at the
17:28
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal, here, I see the tenure at yielding one
17:31
Speaker 1: point three. It's it's higher than it had been over
17:33
Speaker 1: the last week or so, but still in that range
17:35
Speaker 1: that we've seen for such a long time. Here Where
17:37
Speaker 1: don't you and the good folks at TCW look for yield,
17:42
Speaker 1: look for total return in this kind of market, it's
17:46
Speaker 1: a challenge, but it bluntly we're we're a value investor here,
17:51
Speaker 1: which means we tend to buy things as they get cheaper,
17:54
Speaker 1: and there's not a whole lot that is cheap right now.
17:56
Speaker 1: You've got, as you've just pointed, a very low treasury
17:59
Speaker 1: yields um, and beyond that it's even worse as you
18:03
Speaker 1: look to the UH, the risk markets, the corporate market,
18:06
Speaker 1: in the high yeld market, emerging market, UH spreads and
18:10
Speaker 1: risk premium are near all time tight. So the general
18:13
Speaker 1: theme for us is to to begin, or we've already
18:17
Speaker 1: been doing it, to rain in risk budgets. And what
18:21
Speaker 1: that means is carry our durations or interest rate risk
18:24
Speaker 1: short of benchmarks or carry um short um with the
18:28
Speaker 1: expectations rates are going to rise, pull back on our
18:31
Speaker 1: credit beta, which means we've been trimming UH corporate exposure,
18:35
Speaker 1: although we do see idiosyncratically some some opportunities and specific
18:42
Speaker 1: credits that are improving and deleveraging, but generally speaking we
18:45
Speaker 1: have less exposure than the market. Some of the areas
18:47
Speaker 1: we actually find a little bit of value in is
18:50
Speaker 1: the agency mortgage back securities market. That's the Ginny Fanny
18:54
Speaker 1: Freddie market that the FED is actively supporting through UH
18:58
Speaker 1: asset purchases and that those purchases are creating a bit
19:02
Speaker 1: of a distortion in the t b A or forward
19:05
Speaker 1: delivery market that is giving additional carry to those securities
19:10
Speaker 1: in the market. So you're getting spreads beyond what you
19:12
Speaker 1: get in corporate bonds for a zero credit risk asset
19:16
Speaker 1: and one that has very good liquidity. So I would
19:18
Speaker 1: highlight that it's hard to get super excited about something
19:22
Speaker 1: yielding you know, about one and a half percent, but
19:25
Speaker 1: nonetheless it's still fairly attractive on a risk adjusted basis.
19:29
Speaker 1: And then I would say, beyond that, the high quality
19:32
Speaker 1: area of the securitized market, um, non agency mortgages, some
19:36
Speaker 1: areas of the commercial mortgage backed securities market clos are
19:40
Speaker 1: actually an area of the market, uh, particularly that kind
19:42
Speaker 1: of triple A double A area that look reasonably appealing
19:46
Speaker 1: when compared to un secure corporate credit. Just got like
19:50
Speaker 1: twenty seconds left. But um, you agree then that rates
19:53
Speaker 1: are going to rise when and how high? Yeah, I
19:58
Speaker 1: think our view is the market probably has it right
20:02
Speaker 1: at the front end of the curve, meaning you know,
20:05
Speaker 1: when you look at two years at a at a
20:07
Speaker 1: whopping twenty four basis points, or even the five year
20:10
Speaker 1: at a basis points that implies a very slow gradual
20:13
Speaker 1: pace of of FED hikes starting maybe late next year.
20:18
Speaker 1: Where we think the risk is out the curve that
20:20
Speaker 1: one thirty ten year or sub two thirty year. We
20:24
Speaker 1: think it's the FED tapers, and as the market begins
20:27
Speaker 1: to anticipate uh normalization of short term rates, you're going
20:32
Speaker 1: to get higher rates out the curve. So we do
20:34
Speaker 1: think you'll get tenure rates above two percent in the future. Hey, Steven,
20:38
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate your
20:40
Speaker 1: thoughts on insight. Stephen Kane, Group Managing Director, Pultorlio manager
20:43
Speaker 1: at TCW, Let's bring in Steve quick right now. He
20:48
Speaker 1: is the CEO of Unit Space to talk to us
20:50
Speaker 1: about UM, the future of work, how the office may change,
20:56
Speaker 1: how the delta variant is impacting UM. The r t
21:00
Speaker 1: O plans to use the popular new acronym for return
21:04
Speaker 1: to Office. Steve, thanks very much for joining us UM.
21:08
Speaker 1: Everything seems to be there's a lot of deja vou
21:11
Speaker 1: going on right now compared to what we had at
21:13
Speaker 1: the end of last summer. Is this the final year
21:16
Speaker 1: you think? I certainly hope, So thanks for having me.
21:21
Speaker 1: First of all, Yeah, I here's what I think it's
21:25
Speaker 1: going to happen as it relates. I think it is
21:27
Speaker 1: uh the final year. I think realistically, you know, we
21:30
Speaker 1: could be seeing you know, and I'm no epidemiologists, but
21:33
Speaker 1: we could be you know, we could be seeing some
21:35
Speaker 1: rolling COVID variants you know, over the next several years.
21:39
Speaker 1: But I think we've we've got the mechanisms is to
21:42
Speaker 1: adapt to that hopefully alright. So you know, I think
21:47
Speaker 1: it's interesting Steve. You know, back in September you said
21:50
Speaker 1: that the office space would not die per se, maybe
21:54
Speaker 1: just be smaller. I think you said maybe smaller. It's
21:57
Speaker 1: been almost a year. Is that still kind of where
21:59
Speaker 1: you think things are going to go here in US? Yeah,
22:01
Speaker 1: it's it's exactly what we're seeing. I guess. We just
22:04
Speaker 1: finished a survey with more of a hundred of Hunter
22:06
Speaker 1: Global companies and it still looks like about is sort
22:10
Speaker 1: of the sweet spot of range where people are looking
22:13
Speaker 1: to reduce their their footprint, UM kind of in this
22:16
Speaker 1: you know, this new normal. And then and then what
22:19
Speaker 1: they're doing is, you know, they're reconfiguring, um, not just
22:23
Speaker 1: their workplace but also some of their HR standards and
22:25
Speaker 1: things like that to to adjust to as you said,
22:28
Speaker 1: the the r T O the industry jargon here, because
22:30
Speaker 1: if we get back to r T O um, and
22:33
Speaker 1: so that's what we're still seeing. Um. You know, I
22:35
Speaker 1: think the thing we're seeing in the US is delta
22:38
Speaker 1: variant has has delayed that r T O by you know,
22:43
Speaker 1: six nine days. And you've seen all those those reports
22:46
Speaker 1: to where you know, there was a return to office
22:49
Speaker 1: by September one, October one, and now people are saying,
22:52
Speaker 1: let's let's look further out in the fall. Um, so
22:54
Speaker 1: that's been that's been the return to the return to office. Um.
22:59
Speaker 1: Do a land hasn't changed. The timing has has has changed?
23:03
Speaker 1: Given the delta Bearriet. You know, when I was a kid,
23:06
Speaker 1: my dad um had his own office, still has his
23:10
Speaker 1: own office. It was great, his own whole room. You
23:13
Speaker 1: could keep a few toys in there for the kid's visits.
23:16
Speaker 1: He had a stereo and even a bar in the corner.
23:20
Speaker 1: That's no longer, I mean that's been for twenty years.
23:23
Speaker 1: Not the way it works, right. We all have cubicles
23:26
Speaker 1: that are slightly glorified, but not really. Is it going
23:29
Speaker 1: to get even worse going forward? Or we're gonna be
23:31
Speaker 1: hot desking in a bullpen from now on, I would Yeah,
23:37
Speaker 1: when you're saying that, it reminds me a madman or something. Um, yeah,
23:40
Speaker 1: so yeah, but how awesome was that? By the way
23:43
Speaker 1: that that that that was you know, enough inspiration to
23:48
Speaker 1: get up, have him get up and going to work
23:49
Speaker 1: at four thirty every day. You don't look forward to
23:52
Speaker 1: going to a hot desk, do you? Yeah? No, I
23:55
Speaker 1: so I said, I will tell you, I think it's
23:57
Speaker 1: gonna get better. So we've we've been on this evolution
24:00
Speaker 1: of the workplace for you know, like you said, you know,
24:02
Speaker 1: arguably a couple of decades, but at least you know,
24:05
Speaker 1: I've seen it upfront and close for the last decade
24:08
Speaker 1: as we've moved to the open plan, less dedicated offices
24:12
Speaker 1: you know, etcetera, etcetera. And so we've all seen that
24:15
Speaker 1: what COVID has done is accelerated that evolution by you know,
24:19
Speaker 1: we've taken ten years or further revolution and we can
24:22
Speaker 1: press in an eighteen months. And so you know, I think,
24:25
Speaker 1: what's you're you know, because what was preventing sort of
24:27
Speaker 1: that true flexible working it was it was sometimes it
24:30
Speaker 1: was concerned about technology bandwidth and kind of figured that
24:33
Speaker 1: out in the last eighteen months that was eight people
24:35
Speaker 1: still couldn't get their head around well, I need to
24:37
Speaker 1: see Some people still had the mentality of I had
24:40
Speaker 1: to see my employees to make sure they're doing the work,
24:42
Speaker 1: and I think I was sort of people that were
24:44
Speaker 1: last holdouts of managing employees that way have sort of
24:46
Speaker 1: had to adapt. So we've broken down those barriers and
24:49
Speaker 1: now now we're as we get back to work, it's
24:52
Speaker 1: going to be about flexibility or omni working is one
24:55
Speaker 1: of my friends likes to call it. And so I
24:58
Speaker 1: don't think you're actually gonna be in two many cubicles
25:01
Speaker 1: crammed in doing heads down to work. The purpose the
25:04
Speaker 1: office is going to be it's kind of you do that,
25:07
Speaker 1: do that work wherever you want to do that work,
25:08
Speaker 1: whether that's at home or the train or the Starbucks
25:11
Speaker 1: or wherever. But when you do come to the office,
25:13
Speaker 1: it's going to be more and more about getting to
25:15
Speaker 1: go with your colleagues, training sessions, collaboration. Mentoring has come
25:20
Speaker 1: up a lot in our surveys where some of the
25:23
Speaker 1: younger players aren't getting the mentoring like they do when
25:25
Speaker 1: you're sort of in the office or pulled into a
25:27
Speaker 1: meeting and then have a debrief, and so the purpose
25:30
Speaker 1: of the office is going to be more around those
25:32
Speaker 1: elements versus sort of let's let's get even closer and
25:36
Speaker 1: heads down and crank out emails together. So I actually
25:39
Speaker 1: think that that sort of Delbert approach is actually going
25:41
Speaker 1: to get better or not worse. It's my view. All right, Steve,
25:44
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate
25:46
Speaker 1: it's a fascinating discussion that I think a lot of
25:48
Speaker 1: companies are having with their employees here. Um as we
25:52
Speaker 1: get back and Labor Day seems to be one of
25:53
Speaker 1: those kind of days where our time periods where I
25:56
Speaker 1: think some companies are gonna want to try to get
25:58
Speaker 1: a little bit more uh, part of a getting people
26:00
Speaker 1: back in your office, Steve Quick, CEO of unice Space,
26:05
Speaker 1: Let's get back to markets and focus in on what's
26:08
Speaker 1: going on with Dave Harden. He's the CEO and chief
26:12
Speaker 1: investment officer Summit Global Investments. They have one point eight
26:15
Speaker 1: billion dollars of assets under management that assault Lake City
26:19
Speaker 1: and Dave um Let's start with just the fact that
26:23
Speaker 1: even though we're not moving a lot today, we keep
26:26
Speaker 1: having these new records. I think fifty new record highs
26:29
Speaker 1: this year, even as Dave Wilson shows us, the spread
26:34
Speaker 1: between investment grade and high yield debt um and treasuries
26:38
Speaker 1: gets wider and wider. What what are we? What are
26:40
Speaker 1: we missing? Who help? And it's hard, it's hard to
26:44
Speaker 1: say we're missing anything, But I tell you, it sure
26:46
Speaker 1: feels like a right. I appreciate you have me on,
26:48
Speaker 1: Matt and Paul. You know, I would say that these
26:51
Speaker 1: new highs were on pace for seventy seven if it continues,
26:56
Speaker 1: and that ties with record set in nifty four, and
27:00
Speaker 1: so definitely interesting that we're continuing to hit new hives.
27:04
Speaker 1: But can you really doubt it? We have a supported FED,
27:08
Speaker 1: we have a Congress that's writing bills like you know,
27:10
Speaker 1: they have a blank check. We have so much stimulus
27:14
Speaker 1: going into the market right now it's hard not to
27:16
Speaker 1: be short term positive. So I guess one of the
27:21
Speaker 1: issues that investors are working through, Dave is kind of
27:24
Speaker 1: where do I want to be in this market? Do
27:26
Speaker 1: I want to stay with those growth stocks, the apples,
27:29
Speaker 1: the amazons, the apples that have worked so well for
27:31
Speaker 1: me for so long and have been the mainstay of
27:33
Speaker 1: my IRA and my portfolio. Or do I want to
27:36
Speaker 1: follow this rotation trade, which again has been a great trade,
27:40
Speaker 1: you know in terms of the cyclicles and maybe the
27:42
Speaker 1: small caps and things like that. How do you think
27:43
Speaker 1: about that? Well, I think if you want to brag
27:46
Speaker 1: about your portfolio by Christmas, then maybe staying with growth
27:50
Speaker 1: is where you want to be, uh, you know, because
27:52
Speaker 1: it's hard to not favor growth short term, but long
27:55
Speaker 1: term I would favor more value. And if you can
27:59
Speaker 1: find that very big quality company that also still has
28:02
Speaker 1: value in it and they're out there, that's where I
28:05
Speaker 1: would start to rotate. It's it's better to be early
28:08
Speaker 1: to the trade a little bit than late. So you know,
28:12
Speaker 1: as we look out, the growth is going to be hard,
28:16
Speaker 1: inflation is coming in hotter than expectator expat expected, and
28:21
Speaker 1: we have the possibility of taking the punch bowl away
28:23
Speaker 1: from the FED and the quantitative easing. So if you
28:26
Speaker 1: look out longer term, I think it's the right time
28:30
Speaker 1: for people to start thinking about, because they have not
28:32
Speaker 1: thought about it, whatsoever is risk and how to manage
28:36
Speaker 1: risk and how to look at the potential dry powder
28:40
Speaker 1: or the risk in their portfolio. And that's what we
28:43
Speaker 1: do really well at st I is we look at
28:45
Speaker 1: the potential risk and we say, how do we put
28:48
Speaker 1: prudently and properly manage your portfolio. These un teamed risk
28:53
Speaker 1: are going to hurt people in the future. All right,
28:56
Speaker 1: so what do you, um, what do you see? It's
29:00
Speaker 1: on it happening post Jackson Hole. You said the FED
29:03
Speaker 1: is going to take away the punch bowl. Obviously they're
29:04
Speaker 1: gonna at some point they have to scale back purchases.
29:08
Speaker 1: Do they ever raise rates? I think they. I think
29:11
Speaker 1: they're going to have to. I don't think it's going
29:13
Speaker 1: to come right out after Jackson Hole. Um, it's it's
29:16
Speaker 1: just too great of a place there if you've ever
29:18
Speaker 1: been there, um to take to kind of make you relax,
29:21
Speaker 1: And I think they're pretty relaxed. But the fact is
29:24
Speaker 1: is that we have delta, this COVID variant that's really
29:28
Speaker 1: hitting the workforce productivity, and so even if it doesn't
29:34
Speaker 1: do more damage in the sense of of deaths or
29:37
Speaker 1: severe illness, it's stopping people from being productive. And that's
29:41
Speaker 1: what seems to be the case of inflation, and it's
29:44
Speaker 1: causing inflation. We've got these supply chains problems. So the
29:47
Speaker 1: real reality is is that I think that it's gonna
29:52
Speaker 1: inflation is gonna be hotter. It's gonna put pressure on
29:54
Speaker 1: the FED, and they're gonna have to taper a little
29:56
Speaker 1: bit sooner than what I mean, not tap, yeah, stop
29:59
Speaker 1: the quantitative evening a little bit sooner than what expectations
30:02
Speaker 1: are currently out there. So I do see interest rates rising.
30:06
Speaker 1: I do see a pressure on the FED to act. So, Dave,
30:10
Speaker 1: where's your asset allocation? Now, you know, equities, credit, that
30:14
Speaker 1: type of thing. You know, from an assallocation standpoint, it's
30:19
Speaker 1: hard to say, hey, I'm really long bonds right now
30:22
Speaker 1: with that, you know what with the ten year under
30:25
Speaker 1: one and a half percent, right, So this is a
30:27
Speaker 1: really difficult thing when you have a yield of like
30:29
Speaker 1: exnmobile at six point two percent and uh, you know,
30:33
Speaker 1: very low, shorter interest and marginal risk. So you can
30:36
Speaker 1: get yield in a number of different ways if it's
30:39
Speaker 1: just yield. But from an asset allocation standpoint, there's other
30:42
Speaker 1: things to take into consideration, and that is protection. So
30:45
Speaker 1: we do see, for you know, the kind of the
30:47
Speaker 1: non aggressive investors that are more conservative in their portfolios
30:51
Speaker 1: to have some allocation to credit, to have some allocation
30:55
Speaker 1: into this bond market um because it does offer protection
30:59
Speaker 1: and so you know there is some uh legitimacy to
31:03
Speaker 1: that that for decades has has has done just that
31:06
Speaker 1: offer protection. All right, Dave, thanks so much for joining us.
31:09
Speaker 1: To really appreciate you taking the time here. Dave Harden,
31:12
Speaker 1: CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Summit Global Investments. Thanks
31:17
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe
31:20
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
31:24
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at
31:27
Speaker 1: Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at
31:31
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us
31:34
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio