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Starship Upgrades before IFT-3 · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
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  This is a show where we discuss the critical Crossroads, The
• 0:08
  Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink,
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  and I'm your host, Will Walden. If you want uninterrupted
• 0:17
  episodes of the Elon Musk podcast, please go to
• 0:20
  clubelon.supercast.com to find out how.
• 0:25
  There's a link in the show notes SpaceX plans to have two orbital
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  towers down at Starbase in Texas for the launches of their
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  Starship vehicle. Super heavy vehicle, about 400
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  feet tall, the most powerful rocket in existence right now.
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  Now, right now, SpaceX can launch Starships about five
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  times per year, but they don't really want to do that.
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  They want to have a lot more launches than five per year
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  because they need to test the rocket for the upcoming Artemis
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  missions and also for Starlink missions in the future and also
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  some other cargo missions to the moon and beyond.
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  So what do they do? Let's take a look real quick at
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  this. This is from our Technica.
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  This is Eric Berger. Eric is awesome.
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  SpaceX seeks A waiver to launch Starship at least nine times
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  this year. Last year they did.
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  We're at 2 right now, two Starship launches all together.
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  So if they could squeak out nine launches, it's been it's months
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  between every single launch between IFT 1, IFT 2 and now IFT
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  3. It's been a few months.
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  But if they could do three, you know, three within this time
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  frame, like right now IFT 1, IFT 2 and if IFT 3 could be in March
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  of this year, they'd have April, May, June, July, August,
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  September, October, November, December.
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  So they'd have that many months. Could they get that many
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  launches in that many months? One launch per month about, I
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  don't know. That's a that's a pretty risky
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  bet to take 9 launches in about as many months.
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  Could they do a turn around of one launch per month?
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  Could they build enough boosters fast enough?
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  Could they have enough Raptor engines for one launch per
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  month? Do they have enough ships for
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  one launch per month? At this point, they don't have
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  as many built as there are months left in the year.
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  So there's a possibility that they can get this done.
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  They're going to have to ramp up production, ramp up launches,
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  but I believe they could do this.
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  So let's get it a little bit of the minutiae here.
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  Space like nears its first Starship launch, 2024, possibly
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  as soon as within three weeks. So sometime in March, they know
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  that they're going to be doing this launch from Starbase.
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  During a press availability this week, the administration of
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  commercial space transportation at the FAA, Kevin Coleman said
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  the agency is working with the company to try to facilitate the
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  Starship launch licensing process.
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  This is huge, if this actually happens, so looking at a pretty
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  aggressive launch schedule this year, he said.
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  They're looking at, I believe, at least nine launches this
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  year. That's a lot of launches.
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  If you're doing modifications and doing them one by one,
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  that's a lot of work. Could SpaceX be hiring a bunch
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  more people too? We're going to see in the near
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  future if they're going to be hiring more people.
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  We know there's going to be another orbital pad there too.
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  So they're going to be launching these things and also building a
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  pad, possibly. Let's take a look at that in a
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  little bit too. We've been talking to SpaceX
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  constantly around the clock coming together and trying to
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  figure out how we do this. We're invested with the company,
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  so we'll work with them to get them back going as soon as
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  possible. So basically he's saying we're
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  going to get them flying again so they can continue building
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  and fly more rockets in the future.
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  SpaceX decided to launch and attempt to land a Starship
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  vehicle in Texas about five years ago.
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  The company had to undergo an environmental review of the
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  site. So I want to ask you this
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  question too, and I want to know what you think down in the
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  comments. So SpaceX is going to launch IFT
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  3 soon, and it's going to be sometime in March probably,
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  according to Elon Musk. And if the FAA is working with
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  them, and it seems like they are, could they possibly launch
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  a rocket in March and then another one in April?
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  Are they really, Are they that close?
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  I don't think they're going to be able to do a turn around that
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  quick. So in my opinion, it's going to
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  be late April, more than likely May that they get another rocket
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  off if this one goes as perfect as it should go, IFT 2 or IFT 3.
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  If it goes better than IFT 2, then it seems like they'll have
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  all the systems in place to get an IFT 4, IFT 5, etcetera,
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  faster than what they've done before.
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  So all the regulatory hurdles that are in place right now
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  could kind of be relaxed a little bit.
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  And then the FAA would work with SpaceX to get 9 launches for
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  this year, which would be incredible.
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  So that's my question. Do you think they could pull it
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  off nine months with 9 launches? They have about nine months left
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  to get 9 launches in. So we'll see.
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  We'll see. But I don't think they're going
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  to be able to do 9 launches. I think that's a very optimistic
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  goal for SpaceX. And I'm not trying to be
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  pessimistic here. I'm just saying these things are
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  gigantic. They're hard.
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  Things happen all the time. Like the booster right now was
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  moved back to the High Bay so it could get some work done on it
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  before the IFT 3 launch. And the the ship is on the
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  suborbital pad right now, just hanging out.
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  So maybe there's going to be some work done on the on the
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  booster and on the ship in the near future.
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  So if that needs to happen, the timelines can slip pretty
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  quickly. Now that being said, Suborbital
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  pad B could be becoming Orbital pad B SpaceX has always wanted
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  2. Count them 2222 launch towers at
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  Starbase, Texas. That was their vision from the
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  beginning. Two launch towers so they could
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  do everything they need to do from Starbase.
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  Don't have to worry about Kennedy Space Center for a
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  while. They can do everything from
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  Starbase until they start launching humans on these things
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  or start launching these things from NASA property at Kennedy
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  Space Center, possibly for the first Artemis mission.
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  It seems like a good PR stunt to get them launched from NASA, but
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  if they need to, they can do these launches from Texas
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  because it's already built out. No reason to go to Kennedy Space
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  Center and waste resources there before the launch is just keep
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  building up Texas and keep getting it to a better place.
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  So this is suborbital pad B is now going to be orbital pad B,
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  and that's according to vixy. Vicky Cox, 15 on Twitter.
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  Or X if you will. And SpaceX reiterated the permit
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  application on 12 February 2024 with modified project plans
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  requesting to fill a .16 acre wetland to construct a second
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  orbital launchpad which will replace the current suborbital
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  launchpad and test stand. So currently it's just a test
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  stand, right? It's just, it's just right here.
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  That's it. There's really not much there.
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  But it could be a orbital launchpad, which would be
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  fantastic because if they're going to refuel Starship, they
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  have to send up possibly anywhere between 10 and 20
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  tankers for Starship to refuel before it gets to the moon.
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  And these are refuel. That mean it's a complex thing.
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  It's a very complex thing. Could SpaceX do it with two
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  pads? Better than one pad?
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  Two pads are better than one. So this is the other question
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  that I want to ask you. Orbital pad A, orbital pad B at
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  Starbase, do you think they're going to catch the booster or do
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  you think they're going to be expendable for the NASA
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  missions? Do you think they're going to
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  have boosters ready to go? They're going to have 10 to 20
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  boosters ready to go and expend them in the Gulf of Mexico.
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  Or do you think they're going to get the landings nailed before
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  the Artemis program? Because if they don't get the
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  landings nailed, you know, what are they going to do?
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  Will they have 15 boosters just ready to go?
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  I don't think that's the case. I think what's going to happen
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  is they're going to be able to catch these things before the
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  Artemis program, Artemis 3. So which pad?
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  This is the question, Which orbital pad do you think they're
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  going to catch on 1st? I'm going Orbital Pad B because
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  there will be modifications, upgrades to it.
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  They need to catch it. So if if they need to catch it
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  at 1 tower, I think it's going to be Orbital Pad B because
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  Orbital Pad A, it's going to be the workhorse.
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  I think they're going to launch from there.
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  That's perfectly fine. They launch from there.
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  Right now they're going to also launch from Orbital Pad B.
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  But if they can launch from Orbital Pad B, they can land it
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  Orbital pad B, orbital pad A also they can land it orbital
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  pad B. Maybe they can catch them at
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  both. I want to know your opinion down
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  in the comments below, let me know what you think where
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  they're going to catch the first booster orbital Pad A or orbital
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  pad B. So we got a couple questions
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  here today, but that's that's pretty much it.
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  I want to show you the the, the plan here.
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  Space Exploration Technologies published February 22nd.
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  Project plans you know go into deeper here go a little bit
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  deeper and you can zoom in if we need to 150% wetland's subject
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  to this request. So we have tank farm, orbital
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  pad etcetera here and then we have down here we have a little
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  zoomed in requested additional wetland impact .16 acres this
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  little red, this little red one right here proposed wetland
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  impact. It's not much.
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  It's really not much. But we'll they be able to do
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  this and there's a a ground shot of a wetland impact update
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  summary. So there's the pad.
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  You can see it there. It's right right next to it.
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  It's literally like you can take a couple steps across this, take
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  five or six steps and you're across this whole thing.
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  The Army Corps of Engineers, will they allow this?
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  There might be a little impact, an environmental impact study
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  here, but I think they're going to be OK with it.
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  It's an industrial zone right now.
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  Basically, if you look at it, it's an industrial zone in the
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  middle of all sorts of things going on.
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  You know, there's a parking lot, there's there's a bunch of
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  concrete, there's pipes, there's tubes, all sorts of stuff going
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  on here. It's wetlands.
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  Of course we have to protect the wetlands, but also we have to go
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  forward with progress. So what do you think?
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  What do you think about this too?
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  I I think Orbital Pad B will be the catch tower to begin with.
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  Then they're going to take them off.
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  Orbital Pad B, refurbish it, take it back to the high Bay.
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  And while that's happening, other rockets are going to come
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  out and then they're going to launch more over and over and
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  over. So that's where we're at right
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  now. It's got to be a wild 2024.
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  If they get this proposal, if they want it, if they get this
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  Orbital Pad B proposal accepted, we might see Orbital Pad B
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  become a thing, start becoming a thing in the next few months
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  after IF T3I think they're going to start moving in hardware if
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  this gets approved really quick. So we're going to see, but see,
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  the other thing is I want to show you this public state
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  expiration date, January, March 2020 or 25 of 20/24/20 February,
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  March. So next month, about a month
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  actually from today, we're going to see the expiration date of
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  this. So we'll see.
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  We'll see what happens. But thanks for watching,
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  everybody. I appreciate your time and take
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  care of yourselves and each other.
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  And I will see you in the next one.
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