Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Day 2 of the 2026 Crop Tour (Iowa, Illinois, Missouri) with Missouri Estimates

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Day 2 of the 2026 Crop Tour (Iowa, Illinois, Missouri) with Missouri Estimates · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Green Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: This year's crop tour is sponsored by Green Key Ag, a plant nutrition company that takes your fields to their max potential.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Please contact Noah at 712-441-5446.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, today is August 4th.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Kale with us here.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: We are going to talk about day two of the crop tour across the United States.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: So uh they're joining me from the road.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm first gonna do a little recap of uh the market here first.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: We had a little bit of a rally yesterday in the corn market.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: We had a really nice day yesterday.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I would be calling this a little bit of a technical observation as well that we had uh a little bit of an outside day upper close there on the corn market.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: So a little bit of a nice technical development there.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: So that outside up reversal on Monday, uh not really building on it so much today.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it looked like if I had to guess, the corn market there had a little bit of the uh crop condition scores dropping built into it, even though expectations were actually a little bit higher uh for condition scores.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: So nonetheless, uh pretty good yesterday day yesterday in the corn market there with December corn closing up about eight and a half cents and uh trying to build a little bit on that.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: But today, back down 469, uh, we're trying to take back about three cents of that.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we're gonna talk a little bit about that, and then condition scores as well came out last night.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to show that map, Cade on the first uh far left, um, that one right there, show that guy.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we had condition scores on corn drop 2% week over week.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: North Dakota ouch, 37%.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Last week was 50%.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, keep in mind here, we're gonna be talking about where they went through on their stops yesterday as they went through kind of western Iowa on the south side of the state, all the way into Missouri.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um, look at that, look at that score for Iowa, still 80%, very good.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: Last year was actually 85, so a little bit better still, but a 71% average.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: So Iowa, they're saying is looking really good.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: So you guys, yesterday, Kale, uh, you are first is an intro.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: You are from Carroll, Iowa.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: You are uh in interned with ProWake here this year.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: You go to Iowa State, uh, pretty good an agronomy background.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: But tell us a little bit about where you folks went yesterday on that condition score map there and just work your way through the stops a little bit.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so Mike, just to reiterate what you said, Iowa is still staying at 80%.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: Things are looking really good.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: As we drove across western Iowa there and uh made a stop in Audubon, everything is still very green, and uh you can the heat stress isn't really taking a huge effect yet.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: Things are starting to get quite a bit drier over in western Iowa, as I know Audubon County is only 59% of the last 90-day average for rainfall.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_02: So things are gonna start looking a little bit tough here if they don't keep picking up a little rains.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_02: I know western Iowa as a whole, they are continually missing out on some of those key rainfalls that other areas of Iowa are seeing.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_02: So they have been having a hard time trying to keep up on rainfall.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: And you worked your way kind of through the western side of that state there where it says 80%, and then you worked your way into Missouri.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna show 66% there last year, were much higher than that.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: So what do you think as you kind of traveled through southern Iowa into Missouri there?
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, things continually got a little bit drier.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: Uh after talking to uh some different farmers and customers in the area there, they uh had mentioned about how much early rainfall they received, and then since then they haven't really received much rain.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_02: So we were seeing lots of yellow corn and some nitrogen deficiency throughout a lot of fields as we were going through that southeast Iowa, crossing into that northeast Missouri border.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: We were seeing lots of nitrogen deficiency through there.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: So 66% good to excellent scores for Missouri, 79% last year.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: So gonna be hard to keep up with some of those yields.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and then you got a little bit into Illinois as well yesterday, correct?
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: Correct.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: We uh made our way across western Illinois.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_02: Now we're more central, working our way across eastern Illinois now as we speak, and uh things are looking really good.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: I would say uh they're definitely on the higher end of precip so far this year.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: They are definitely in excess, and the holes are definitely fields.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_02: The crop as you drive by and you're on the highways look excellent from the road.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: But if you uh really look and try to f pick out those holes and fields, there are definitely spots where the corn is sat in too much moisture throughout this growing season.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: Ah, very interesting.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: So uh with those stops that you made, we were able to get a yield calculation on Missouri there.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh let's talk a little bit about your thought process on uh and what yield you came up with for a state average.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so Missouri last year, I think they were at record highs, I believe.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_02: And uh looking at things this year, especially in the where we were yesterday in the northeastern part of Missouri and how much nitrogen deficiency there was throughout the corn, things just weren't looking like it was gonna be a record-breaking this record-breaking yields this year at all.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_02: So we figured knocking that down 10 bushels or so would be about adequate.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so about 175 on an average yield expectation there.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: I I see a lot of weather models somewhere between 170 to 178.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like uh a lot of uh a lot of different analysts sitting there as well.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: So kind of smack dab in the middle.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: Condition scores for the most part have been pretty good for the most part.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so 175, still not a bad misery yield by any means, but uh a little disappointing versus uh maybe how they started.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: But I I want to talk a little bit about what you saw in Illinois there as well.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: We're not gonna come up with an Illinois yield today because you got to travel through the north side of the route.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: But Cade, pull up the precipitation ranks there.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um I'm gonna start talking about, yeah, just pick one of those.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um on this one here, this is this is the precipitation rank for the last 133 years.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: One would be the wettest that district has been in the last 133 years from basically April 1st until the end of July.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what we saw there was almost the end of July, not quite.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: What we've seen is that the eastern corn belt was very, very wet.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: You can see Illinois, where you guys traveled through yesterday, 18, 22, 15, very, very wet compared to normal or past history.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh same with Missouri there, like you talked about, 22 would be that northeast quadrant, so 22nd wettest of the last 133 years since planning.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: On the other one, and you can see uh on the other one here, this is only going to be for the month of July.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: So rainfall through the month of July there, you can see it dried up a lot.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: That sector, 77th, so a little bit dry for northeast Missouri out of the last 133 years.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: But Illinois there, where you crossed in, I mean, that one is 100 just north of you where you traveled most of yesterday in the 80s and 90s.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: So Illinois, very dry.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Missouri, like you said, they basically had no rain through the month of July at all.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um, very, very dry.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: So really wet start, really dry through the month of July.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes that can bode for a pretty rough yield, especially if you finish the year out staying dry.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna want to watch that sector to make sure, hey, are they gonna get enough rainfall to finish out that crop or not?
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: But usually when you have a a really wet start, the roots don't get developed that well.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: And then when you get into a uh a dry spell, that crop seems to struggle a little bit.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the forecast AIY is just, you know, we do have quite a bit of rain over the next five days, half an inch to an inch there for a lot of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Eastern Corn Belt, Iowa.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be nice if we could get some of that rainfall to spread out as well.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: Anything else that you think worth mentioning from yesterday, Kale?
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: Nope.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: I uh would just have to agree with you on too much excess moisture across uh Missouri, and then most of Illinois is causing lots of problems here, late July, early August, where the crop uh sat in water too long, and now the heat is causing lots of nitrogen deficiency.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_02: And I think we're seeing quite a bit of shallow roots in a lot of the crop, and it's uh not able to reach that necessary nutrients that it needs.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you for your time today.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate it.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: If any of you get some time, go click on the link in the description below, click the subscribe button on YouTube as well.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: We really appreciate all of you out there.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: If you want to take yield samples, send them in independently uh on our website.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_01: You can do use a yield calculator there as well.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: Please is a fantastic tool.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: Send them in.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: We're uh we are eager to find out what you all have going on in your part of the world.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: Reach out on Twitter, however, you want to get a hold of us.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: We really appreciate your time.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you today, Cale.