Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 135: The September Rainfall Outlook Everyone Needs To Be Watching with Gary Lezak

Transcript

135: The September Rainfall Outlook Everyone Needs To Be Watching with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Welcome back to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 0:04
  Happy Friday or whatever day you are listening to this, but this
• 0:08
  comes out on Friday, so I'm saying Happy Friday.
• 0:11
  Today we are bringing back Gary Lezak with the Weather 2020
• 0:14
  team. Gary has been on this podcast
• 0:16
  for like over 50 episodes now and it has been the most amazing
• 0:22
  journey. Gary is so fun to have on every
• 0:25
  single week. He not only brings so much
• 0:27
  energy to the podcast, but brings so much relevant
• 0:31
  information for our farmers, for our ranchers out there.
• 0:34
  And today we're talking about all of that.
• 0:36
  We're talking hurricanes that are forming right now.
• 0:39
  We are also talking fall weather, rain patterns.
• 0:43
  So specifically for all of those that are all of those of you
• 0:46
  that are getting ready for harvest here in the Midwest,
• 0:49
  you're going to want to listen in because we are talking
• 0:52
  rainfall patterns at the end of September, early October,
• 0:56
  mid-september, what we can kind of expect from all of those
• 0:59
  things. And and then Gary and I just
• 1:01
  have our usual banter in between all of it as well.
• 1:04
  And you will get to learn a new skill that I did not know Gary
• 1:07
  had and considered me flabbergasted because it's
• 1:10
  pretty impressive. So let's go ahead and get into
• 1:13
  this episode with Gary. But before we do, if you could
• 1:15
  take a few seconds to go like subscribe, rate and review, do
• 1:18
  all of the things. And if you're listening on a
• 1:19
  podcasting platform, go check us out on YouTube.
• 1:22
  These videos are always so fun to be able to watch on YouTube.
• 1:25
  Make sure you get subscribed, do all the things over there as
• 1:27
  well. And I have all of Gary's links,
• 1:30
  links link down below. So if you hear us talk about
• 1:32
  anything in this episode that you're like, I want to check
• 1:34
  that out, whether it be his sub stock link, the link to the
• 1:36
  dashboard, anything like that, or just the links to Gary social
• 1:39
  media. I've got them down below.
• 1:40
  So you can check those out as well.
• 1:42
  Let's go ahead and get into this episode.
• 1:44
  Gary, welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source
• 1:52
  for the latest livestock markets, industry insights and
• 1:55
  the updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:57
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 2:00
  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 2:03
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 2:10
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
• 2:13
  Good morning. How are you?
• 2:17
  Good morning. And you know everyone, Lauren,
• 2:21
  who you may know now after all these weeks with us on this
• 2:25
  podcast, and I think she's all over the place, but she makes
• 2:30
  you smile. She just is one of those people.
• 2:32
  It's it's like it's very rare to know somebody that just makes
• 2:36
  you smile. You want people in your life
• 2:39
  that are going to make you smile.
• 2:40
  They don't have to make you laugh.
• 2:41
  It'd be great if they could, but they can make you smile.
• 2:45
  That's all that matters. So thank you.
• 2:46
  Oh. Gary, you're going to make it.
• 2:49
  My heart pitter powder this morning.
• 2:51
  Get me all emotional over here. Oh, thank you.
• 2:55
  That's true. Well, hey, you are a person that
• 2:59
  makes me laugh. I tell you what, I I get up
• 3:03
  every Wednesday morning and I'm like, darn it, I get to talk to
• 3:05
  Gary today. It's going to be a good day.
• 3:07
  That's awesome. That is awesome.
• 3:09
  Yes, yes. What's going on in the world?
• 3:12
  How's life? How's how's everything going?
• 3:15
  Everything's going great, We're getting through summer.
• 3:17
  It's the mid August now and so hurricane forming off the East
• 3:21
  Coast and and you know, another one of those predictions we'll
• 3:25
  talk about the dogs are doing great.
• 3:27
  The weather is good. It's been a a fairly wet summer,
• 3:30
  but August is weird. So we'll talk about that.
• 3:33
  And right now doing I'm doing, life is good.
• 3:36
  Love to hear it. I love to hear it.
• 3:38
  Well, as far as the weather's going, what's what's happening
• 3:41
  there? We've got we've got things to
• 3:42
  talk about. Dive in.
• 3:44
  Yeah, well, you know me, you could get me started and I might
• 3:47
  just go. Go take the reins, Gary.
• 3:51
  Run away. Let's go.
• 3:52
  You go take a bathroom break. I'll be talking to you.
• 3:54
  Just do your thing. But.
• 3:58
  Anyway, no, everything's going great.
• 4:00
  We are here in the middle of August and the jet stream, which
• 4:05
  is caused by temperature contrast is at its weakest point
• 4:10
  about a few days ago to a week ago.
• 4:13
  And so we're going to see the jet stream gradually strengthen
• 4:16
  and start shifting South all the way until it reaches its peak
• 4:21
  strength in late January. So what does that mean for us
• 4:24
  that we're still in the same panel we've been in since last
• 4:27
  October, but it's going to start strengthening again and we're
• 4:31
  going to move from summer into September and it'll be summer
• 4:35
  like in September. But then we start having some
• 4:38
  interaction and we think, we believe using the LRC, remember
• 4:44
  the weather pattern is cycling regularly, right?
• 4:48
  And so this year's cycle is close to six weeks long, 41 days
• 4:54
  to be exact. It oscillates between 38 and 44
• 4:58
  days. What does that mean?
• 4:59
  That means what has happened will continue to happen and it's
• 5:04
  cycling. So what happened 41 days ago or
• 5:07
  so is returning now. What happened 82 days ago or 123
• 5:14
  days ago or 164 days ago, which is 41 * 4 or 205 or 246.
• 5:22
  They're all multiples of 41. You can go all the way back to
• 5:26
  last October, you know, like 300 days ago, 240 days ago,
• 5:32
  whatever. It is one of those cycles and we
• 5:35
  can see a reflection of the hurricane that is forming off
• 5:39
  the East Coast. October 22nd, 3rd and 24th there
• 5:44
  was what we call a weather seed that was identified, put into
• 5:49
  our forecast for this hurricane season and we predicted that
• 5:55
  around mid August there would be a hurricane forming off the East
• 6:01
  Coast. We weren't.
• 6:02
  There were two candidates and this is one of those two
• 6:06
  candidates. So I'm not saying we're 50%
• 6:09
  right. We're really 100% right on
• 6:10
  predicting this one. The other candidate was forecast
• 6:15
  to be a little farther S, but that one may appear in the next
• 6:20
  cycle. So beware Florida about 40 days
• 6:23
  from now, all right, but right now this one's off the East
• 6:26
  Coast. The weather seeds we identified
• 6:29
  show that it would likely track offshore and miss the United
• 6:35
  States. This one is going to do that
• 6:37
  track. It's going to almost for sure
• 6:39
  turn north and go out to sea instead of making a landfall and
• 6:43
  causing a disaster. 11 slight difference.
• 6:47
  It could be a disaster, so we have to continue to monitor it,
• 6:51
  but the LRC would suggest it takes that track now. 41 days
• 6:57
  ago, Chantal is also likely related to this system and it
• 7:01
  did form near the coast and make landfall.
• 7:04
  So there is another weather see that's related to this that did
• 7:08
  make landfall, but we favored that offshore movement.
• 7:12
  The models are going in that direction.
• 7:14
  So we may avoid a disaster out of this one, but it's going to
• 7:17
  get a lot of attention this weekend with it becoming a major
• 7:21
  hurricane in the next 5 days. Yes, it's crazy to like see it
• 7:25
  all laid out in front of you and be able to sit here and say,
• 7:29
  hey, like the the pattern lines up, it's here, the rain patterns
• 7:35
  are here, the thunderstorms that were here 41 days ago or here 41
• 7:40
  days after the seeds that were planted 200 and whatever.
• 7:45
  I don't know how you sat here and you did multiples of 41 in a
• 7:49
  row like that. You must have paid attention in
• 7:51
  math and elementary school much better than I did because if I
• 7:55
  don't have a calculus I it would take me a lot longer than it
• 7:58
  took you to do those multiples. In my head, I could have done
• 8:01
  it. It would have taken me a lot
• 8:03
  longer though, so that was impressive.
• 8:04
  I have a good friend of mine who's also had a tremendous
• 8:07
  successful career. He is he was a big sports agent
• 8:11
  and I'm as a sports agent. He was actually my agent too,
• 8:15
  but my my bosses didn't know in TVI used him as my agent.
• 8:20
  So I didn't really have an agent, but I used him to look at
• 8:22
  my contracts and he hated, he hated me because he was all mad
• 8:25
  at me all the time because he said you can't do this, you
• 8:28
  can't do that. You have to just clause out and
• 8:30
  take all these clauses out and and you, you redline my whole
• 8:35
  thing. And then I just signed the
• 8:36
  contract and I did. I just, I disregarded what he
• 8:39
  told me because it's like they're not going to do anything
• 8:42
  to me. And I was right.
• 8:44
  But most of my career. So but anyway, but my point is,
• 8:48
  I met him in like the third grade and we became really good
• 8:52
  friends in a third grade as third graders.
• 8:54
  And he was this, he becomes this big arbitrator.
• 8:58
  He's one of the best arbitrators in the world when it comes to to
• 9:02
  that and as an attorney. And so his name is Jeff Boris.
• 9:06
  And he's not Scott Boris, the famous Boris, but he's another
• 9:09
  Boris that was almost as famous and just about as rich.
• 9:12
  He made millions and millions and millions of dollars, but in
• 9:15
  3rd grade, I would walk outside and say, Jeff, look, look at
• 9:19
  that, there's going to be a storm.
• 9:20
  Look at that. And he'd go, you don't know what
• 9:22
  you're talking about as a third grader.
• 9:24
  Same thing now. I mean, it's it's same thing
• 9:27
  now. So just know that's just my
• 9:29
  friend Jeff Boris. I don't know how that where
• 9:32
  where I was going with that. Here's where I was going with
• 9:35
  that. So you get me distracted.
• 9:37
  She was really good at math. I was really good at math.
• 9:40
  And so he says he was better than me at math and faster than
• 9:44
  me. And I said I don't think so.
• 9:46
  So even the third grade, 4th grade, we were like battling
• 9:49
  each other. Who's the fastest on
• 9:51
  multiplication tables and, you know, addition.
• 9:54
  And, you know, I can do 99 times any number less than 100 and
• 9:58
  give you the answer in in a split second.
• 10:01
  Get you. Do you have a calculator with
• 10:02
  you right now or? Yeah.
• 10:04
  OK, give me 9. Times 83. 8217.
• 10:09
  Just a second you, you said it too fast.
• 10:11
  I don't even have my calculator pulled up.
• 10:13
  Well, you started counting first. 8217.
• 10:17
  Yeah, do the next one, OK. And never less than 100. 99 *
• 10:22
  63. Seven, what's the answer?
• 10:28
  There you go. 6237 OK 99 * 57. 3.
• 10:38
  That's correct. What the heck AM?
• 10:41
  I right guy, you got me. I was overwritten.
• 10:42
  Oh my gosh, how do you do that? It's amazing.
• 10:47
  You want me to tell you the secret or should I just keep a
• 10:49
  secret? Just.
• 10:50
  Keep the secret because I don't need that special skill.
• 10:53
  Honestly, like pretty amazing. So I well, I tell you the secret
• 10:58
  also as you're really, really good in addition and subtraction
• 11:02
  fast because it's really not multiplication that's the secret
• 11:05
  to that. It's really it's multiplication.
• 11:08
  Now you're taking it times 100. The number.
• 11:13
  OK. That seems a little easier.
• 11:16
  It's just it's really fast addition and subtraction, OK.
• 11:20
  Yeah, 99 * 32 is 3200 -, 32, OK. You just have to know that
• 11:28
  that's 3168, OK. Yeah, they're really good.
• 11:31
  So I do it. I just go fast.
• 11:33
  I can be the calculator. You know 99 * 99 is 9801, so you
• 11:39
  just use, You know, you just it's subtracting.
• 11:45
  Would you look at that? Now I can do 90 eights.
• 11:48
  When you do 90 eights, it's multiplication and subtraction.
• 11:51
  You have to multiply the number by two and then subtract it from
• 11:55
  9800 so. You're crazy, Gary.
• 11:59
  Anyway, so yeah, so that's how I did 4180, two 123, 160-420-5246
• 12:07
  and then it would be 307. No, no, 287.
• 12:13
  So I was, I made my mistake. I'm not perfect.
• 12:16
  Consider me impressed. I I did not think that we were
• 12:20
  going to come on the podcast today and I was going to learn
• 12:22
  how to multiply things by 99, but here I am.
• 12:27
  Practice that you can impress your friends, but you have to be
• 12:30
  really good. I have friends that are good at
• 12:31
  math and if they, if they go like this, you go what's 99 * 52
• 12:36
  and they go 5148, that's good. But if you go files 148 that
• 12:44
  fast then it's like yeah, you could be the calculator.
• 12:48
  Yeah, that's impressive. Yeah.
• 12:50
  That's that's that's a skill worth having.
• 12:53
  I love it. I love it.
• 12:55
  Are you sure it's worth having? Hey, you know what?
• 12:58
  That's a really fun, like, fun fact.
• 13:01
  Yeah, honestly, like, or all those things that people, like,
• 13:05
  ask all the time when you're at like, events or just like good
• 13:08
  Ice Breakers or, I don't know, like all the things.
• 13:11
  Or if you're at a party and you just want to impress everyone,
• 13:14
  get 5 people together, have them take out a calculator and and
• 13:17
  watch them get blown. And mine don't get blown.
• 13:20
  How do they do that? Oh my gosh.
• 13:24
  Oh, Gary, I love it. I love it.
• 13:26
  Well, back to the weather. Back to a regular scheduled
• 13:31
  program. What else is happening in the
• 13:33
  weather outside of the hurricane?
• 13:36
  That we just talked about, what we just talked about it's the
• 13:39
  eighth cycle of this year's pattern.
• 13:41
  There's a phase one and a phase two-part of the pattern.
• 13:44
  I put that into Weather 2020 Intelligence Report this week.
• 13:47
  We talked about it again and we are now going into phase one.
• 13:52
  It has been wet across Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, parts of
• 13:59
  Nebraska in phase one. But the August version in in the
• 14:04
  past 30-40 years of analyzing August weather, August is one of
• 14:10
  the toughest months to be wet. So the fact that we have been
• 14:14
  wet all the way up into the first days of August was amazing
• 14:18
  because now we're in the middle of August and I'm not shocked.
• 14:21
  The models are struggling to produce the same rainfall
• 14:25
  patterns in the next week or ten days.
• 14:28
  A lot of dry drying out for a while.
• 14:31
  So keep in mind that we're still in the same weather pattern, OK?
• 14:36
  The LRC sets up in October and November every year.
• 14:41
  That's cycle 1. And so two months from now, we
• 14:44
  will be in cycle one of a brand new pattern that has never, ever
• 14:47
  happened before. And we'll take you through that
• 14:50
  and give you a little top secret information.
• 14:53
  But we're still in the same pattern.
• 14:54
  We're in the eighth cycle of this pattern when we go into the
• 14:57
  9th cycle of this pattern. And in September, that August
• 15:02
  dilemma that sometimes also happens in July, but July was
• 15:05
  just took a wet twist, which was very good for the corn and the
• 15:09
  soybeans and, and most of the crops and, and, and farming
• 15:14
  activities and out there and the hay, I mean, it's really good.
• 15:19
  There's many places that were too dry.
• 15:20
  Now they're a little wet. They wanted to dry out, so they
• 15:22
  get their hay. And so I know all this is going
• 15:25
  on, but there's a concern is we're going to harvest.
• 15:29
  And if you want to see what I wrote in the report, you go
• 15:32
  check it out because it's in this week's report now I'll keep
• 15:36
  track of it. The ninth cycle of pattern, this
• 15:39
  part of the cycle that has been wet in most cycles will return
• 15:44
  the 20th of September to October 10th.
• 15:49
  By October 10th, the new LRC will be setting up.
• 15:51
  But that 20 to 21 day stretch, that three-week stretch could be
• 15:56
  way too wet because I'm, I'm predicting right now that that
• 16:02
  will probably be too wet in some areas.
• 16:06
  So I'm not sure what your timing for harvest is.
• 16:10
  If you can get a lot of things done before the 20th or 25th of
• 16:13
  September, you might avoid too wet disaster that could happen
• 16:18
  for a three-week stretch. So know that that is likely
• 16:21
  coming. And this includes Kansas,
• 16:24
  Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, up into the northern Plains and the
• 16:28
  northern Plains, Fargo, Bismarck, Wisconsin, Minnesota,
• 16:32
  South Dakota. That area might be too wet
• 16:35
  earlier in September. So but then they would dry out
• 16:38
  for their harvest, which sometimes comes a little bit
• 16:41
  later. So anyway, just know that that
• 16:44
  is coming. Good to know for sure,
• 16:48
  especially when you're like looking out and trying to plan
• 16:51
  all of those things several weeks and months in advance, get
• 16:53
  crews together, all of the things.
• 16:56
  It is extremely, extremely important to know all of that,
• 16:59
  so. In our in our report, I took
• 17:01
  some screenshots from the dashboard that I think everyone
• 17:04
  should have. Yeah, we've been getting some
• 17:06
  good testimonials from it and we're going to continue to work
• 17:09
  on it, get get it better and better and better the next year.
• 17:12
  But you get a forecast day by day or week by week for your
• 17:15
  county, for your farm, for your region, for your state or the
• 17:18
  United States or the world that you want that.
• 17:21
  And and so that's is out right now.
• 17:23
  So, but in there I posted all the in our intelligence where I
• 17:28
  posted some of those maps and you can see the state by state
• 17:31
  how those what weeks are in the forecast for the second-half of
• 17:34
  September. And it's the only model you can
• 17:37
  have for that. Now listen to this, Lauren.
• 17:39
  The weather pattern is cycling. All right, What's accepted in
• 17:42
  meteorology and science, it's called the MJO, the Madden,
• 17:48
  Julian Oscillation. Doctor Manon, Roland Manon and
• 17:53
  Julian, these guys in 1971 stumbled across this cycling
• 17:59
  pattern in the tropics where thunderstorm complexes and
• 18:03
  outgoing and incoming long wave radiation were tracked and they
• 18:09
  could see a 30 to 60 day cycle down in the tropics.
• 18:13
  And they reasoned, this guy, Roland Madden reasoned that one
• 18:19
  day there's going to be a way to predict the weather in the mid
• 18:21
  latitudes where we live, which is what the LRC is.
• 18:24
  And Doctor Roland Madden, he's 87 years old, and I'm meeting
• 18:30
  with him today for lunch. That is amazing.
• 18:34
  That's so fun, isn't? That crazy?
• 18:36
  That's crazy. The LRC meets the MJO.
• 18:42
  The MJO is completely accepted in science.
• 18:45
  The LRC is is my discovery for 40 years ago.
• 18:49
  So I'm going to do my best to listen to Doctor Madden.
• 18:53
  He is really an amazing man and he's a wealth of knowledge and I
• 18:58
  want to listen, listen, listen. And not just because he might
• 19:02
  go. Who is this guy talking about
• 19:04
  the LRCI? Just I'll, I'll introduce it to
• 19:06
  him, but I'm going to try to have him get him engaged into it
• 19:12
  rather than me just tell him everything I'm capable of just
• 19:15
  going blah, blah, blah. Listen to me.
• 19:19
  You can word vomit all lunch if given the opportunity, I'm sure.
• 19:22
  But yes, that is that's so exciting.
• 19:24
  It's a crossover that is so fun. It's so cool to sit down with
• 19:29
  people that have been pioneers of things and just be able to
• 19:33
  hear their story and how they did things and what got them to
• 19:38
  where they are. And then, hey, maybe in a few
• 19:42
  years you'll be able to say that you were the person that did XYZ
• 19:47
  and you've got someone wanting to sit down at lunch with you
• 19:49
  and. Talk about that now, when I'm
• 19:52
  87. Couple years, come on.
• 19:56
  Now it's a whole, it's a whole generation the way because I'm,
• 20:00
  you know, generation is considered to be about 20 years.
• 20:04
  So so I'm just 63 so I should be OK you've.
• 20:09
  Got plenty of time. Come on.
• 20:12
  You are like, you act like you're 21, so you're fine.
• 20:16
  You got the energy, the 20. One year old, sure, I'm a
• 20:19
  mature. No, you're mature.
• 20:22
  I was referring to your energy levels, Sir.
• 20:25
  You don't act like a normal 63 year old, all right?
• 20:29
  You act like you bring the energy.
• 20:32
  You you're very vibrant. You're you're charismatic, all
• 20:36
  the things you're not just like. Thank you guys.
• 20:41
  But potential spam is what that was.
• 20:43
  My husband has been coming home every day after work and he's
• 20:46
  like guess how many spam calls I got today?
• 20:49
  And I don't know what list his phone number is on but it is on
• 20:52
  a bad one because he's getting an obscene amount of phone
• 20:54
  calls. I mean praise the Lord I haven't
• 20:58
  gotten any recently and I would like it to stay that way.
• 21:01
  Oh. Is this for an important update
• 21:05
  from U.S. tax on your tax forgiveness call back.
• 21:08
  I'm not going. To no, I'm good.
• 21:10
  What? That is.
• 21:12
  I'm good. Thanks.
• 21:14
  Thanks for trying though. Appreciate it.
• 21:16
  Oh jeez. Well, anything else that we need
• 21:18
  to hit on Gary or we have have we hit all the nails on the head
• 21:21
  today? I.
• 21:21
  Think so? There's a lot more to discuss,
• 21:23
  but we can go read the report this week if you can your.
• 21:27
  Sub stack report is what you're referring to.
• 21:29
  Right, 2020. Well, the 2020 dot substack.com
• 21:32
  and Perfect is an exciting time to join because in the next two
• 21:35
  months we'll be going from this pattern into a brand new pattern
• 21:39
  that's never happened before, and I can't wait to talk to
• 21:42
  Doctor Roland Manon about that today.
• 21:45
  I can't wait to hear about that next week and talk about how
• 21:49
  that meeting went. And then all the things to all
• 21:52
  of our listeners out there. We've got that sub stack link
• 21:54
  link down in the show notes. So make sure you go check that
• 21:56
  out. Go get that sub stack report and
• 21:59
  stay informed to stay up to date, do all of the things.
• 22:03
  We also have our exclusive Weather 2020 link down below
• 22:06
  where we have a partnership with Cattle USA and Weather 2020
• 22:09
  where you can get that dashboard that we've talked about if you
• 22:11
  few times, whether it be for your region or for the whole
• 22:14
  world, whatever you need it for. Gary, as always, thank you for
• 22:18
  your time today and to all of our listeners.
• 22:20
  We will see you all next time on another episode.
• 22:23
  Have a good one y'all.