Latest / The Curve / TCW15: LVMH is killing it, the UK economy is battling away, and France have raised their retirement age!

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TCW15: LVMH is killing it, the UK economy is battling away, and France have raised their retirement age! · The Curve

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  We're really excited to have partnered with Audi to bring you the Curve Weekly, a podcast
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  that encourages women to work towards driving a more progressive future. And if you haven't
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  already, check out our savings calculator at thecurve.co.nz to help you reach your savings goals.
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  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
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  business and stock market tea.
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  I know exactly what I needed to do, but it would take money to get there. Show me the money!
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  For the record, feminism by definition is the belief that men and women should have equal rights
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  and opportunities. Everyone should experience for us class at least once in their lives
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  and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me own poor woman.
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  Well I'm glad to see that the studio's scrubbed up okay after what I happened on the
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  set at night. Oh gosh, I know. I wish we'd recorded. I was so good.
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  But can I had our first night out together in a long time? I mean both said how nice it was
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  to like not talk work and actually go out for a drink. I know, we haven't done that in a long time
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  because it's like when you work with someone all the time, the last thing you want to do, sorry babe.
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  No it's true. Hey, should we go spend more time together? I mean totally. But it was so fun.
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  We ended up back at FIX until like two in the morning and all the boys came into the
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  podcast studio and were like, hi, welcome to the curve. This is now we're saving money and
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  less than gold, a less than currency. I was like, oh gosh, it's like, get out. But also you're
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  saying, oh, this is behind the scene. It's not that glam. But I just wish that we'd
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  press record how funny would it be if we could play back some of their shits. But I'm
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  glad that it's all in my piece. There's no drinks spilled on the podcast equipment or anything.
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  I had a bit of anxiety. I was like, oh, careful in there. It's all fun and games until someone
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  gets hurt, you know? It's all fun and games until someone spills a beer on our
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  road podcast. I just remember it about two in the morning being like, I'm hungry, I really
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  want KFC and I googled it and it was closed. And you're like, it's all right babe, I've got
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  Keto bread. So I made eggs on toast. And she's just sitting at the table and having eggs,
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  I'm entertaining you run outs. Don't mind me. I'm like, I want everyone to leave.
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  The good old, I'm going to go to bed, but you're welcome to say they're like,
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  absolutely not. You got all the cleaning up. You just slowly start putting stuff away.
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  Just we think around everyone. Vacuuming around their feet. No, but it was fun. It was very fun.
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  I'm just needed. What is happening in the market? Well, we've had a very strong week,
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  a game last week with across all markets, the US, the Aussie market, New Zealand, but yeah,
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  I feel like New Zealand's always the one that's just kind of... Is it because we've got less companies
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  in it? We just don't move around as much. You know, we don't have big, big weeks, big months,
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  big years. But we kind of considered more of a safe haven in New Zealand. It's actually the
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  warehouse and big companies are really asking to the world. Five years. No, we have a lot of dividend
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  companies. So a lot of safe telecommunications utility, those kind of companies. Does that mean
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  that if we see the NZX, so the New Zealand Stock Exchange going up and down quite a lot,
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  it's actually quite a big deal because our company's generally quite stable. It's more when
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  the world's doing really well. People will put money more into those really spicy, exciting names,
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  like tech stocks and stuff, which we don't have a lot of in New Zealand. But anyway, we have had
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  some news out of some European stocks, actually. Okay. We've had LVMH, which is Louis Vuitton Moe
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  Hennessy, which is one of my favourites. Yes, it is. We've actually done a whole episode on this
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  particular stock, but it's very, it's done very well. Yeah, I think it's called, it's number 27. So
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  if you want to go ahead and listen, it's called the stock has delivered nearly 300% for the past five
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  years. So we went into all of the reasons why this company's done so, so well. Yeah. And the CEO
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  of this company is now. Oh, I felt like I remember. Riches now. Burn it. Burn it. That's right. He's the
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  richest man in the world. Yeah, I mean, it fluctuates between him and Elon Musk, depending on
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  him. I kind of sounded like you said, fluctuates. I don't know. And Nancy ate. And Nancy ate.
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  Fluxuates between Elon Musk and Burn it, because we're depending on the sheer price, which means
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  that there would impact the air. I'd love to hear it visual. What does he look like? Burner,
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  what's his last name? Arnold. Probably. Arnold. I can also probably stuff that up.
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  He looks so different to what I would have expected. I was expecting brown hair glasses,
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  short and kind of plump. Yeah. He's tall, white and very wrinkly. He's very old. Anyway,
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  that is not the point for me bringing this up. LVMH had a very good week last week. It's
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  sheer price was up 6%. It's up 30%. This year. So. Do you invest in this company still? I feel
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  it used to. Yep. Yep. No, I do. The reason it had a really good week last week was that it
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  announced 17% increase in sales. And it's all off the back of Chinese starting to shop again
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  and starting to spend money on LVMH. Yeah. So we spoke in the Curve Weekly email how there's
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  11 Chinese airlines that are coming back online, starting to operate again because they haven't,
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  for the last three years, because of COVID. It's crazy to think 11 airlines were basically
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  just like put on hold. I know. Like we have one in New Zealand. I can imagine 11. That's not even
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  probably half of them. Yeah. So yeah. So that just means that there's the Chinese are starting to
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  travel again. They're starting to go abroad. They're starting to spend money. They've been locked up.
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  So it's kind of a delayed reopening. So we've had for so many years, well for at least 12
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  months now, the Chinese are starting to do that. And they're big purchases of LVMH products. So
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  that's why they're seeing this huge increase in sales. And it made their share price hit record highs.
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  I actually remember you saying this when they were still in lockdown. You said the reason that
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  LVMH maybe isn't doing so well right now is because China is fully locked away. And so it's
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  kind of cool to hear and see that play out because I know you say with investing some other stuff you
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  think's going to happen or play out. Some of it doesn't. And that's why you've always got to be
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  forward-looking when you're looking at investing in companies. You know, if people...
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  Because if you're invested in this six months ago, the thing this was going to happen,
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  then you invest before the share price goes down. Exactly. So you're always trying to be...
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  Oh my god. I can't even be where I'm at now.
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  Really. So it's making sense. Yeah. Don't live in the moment.
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  Live in the future. That's a bumper sticker for you.
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  It's like my life. You know, just live with anxiety. Yeah. And we're also seeing this with Hermes as well.
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  Hermes. Hermes. Hermes. Hermes?
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  Hermes has gone up. Hermes has gone up. Hermes has gone up four percent last week. And again,
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  up 35% this year. So both LVMH and Hermes are doing really well. And it's off the same
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  same thematic or the same theme. So a China out of lockdown? Or are they coming out of lockdown?
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  Yeah, they're out of lockdown, yeah. And what's happening to them with COVID?
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  Well, they're kind of let it run rampant. I think they tried to contain it. They had a zero
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  COVID policy, meaning if you get one case, it's a little kind of lockdown. But they've
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  seen that that's been so detrimental to their economy in terms of economic growth. And you kind
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  of got to weigh up, do we save people's lives or do we grow the economy and that kind of thing?
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  So they just got to a point. They've got to a point they're losing battle. And yeah,
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  but they haven't had any Western vaccines either. So because they're kind of anti-the West.
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  And that like they're like Pfizer's a American company. And so China's like we don't want
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  your American vaccines. We've got it on in there. So did they have vaccines?
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  Yeah, they weren't very effective. They were the first country to go into lockdown because that's
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  where the outbreak started. And then the last thing about like they've been like the mental health
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  issues that that country's going to have. Well, lots of countries around the world actually,
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  you know, with young people that have been locked down. Old people have been locked down like
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  anyone. Imagine having a like a kid like a young kid and being stuck in a tiny apartment for three
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  years. And it's strict over there. It's strict lockdowns. We also had some news out of the UK.
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  Well, it wasn't actually out of the UK, but there is this report that comes out and it's called
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  the World Economic Outlook Report. And it gave some pretty scary stats on UK growth. And the
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  Outlook is not looking too good in the UK. So the stock market over there. So remember the
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  main index. So the S&P 500 is the main index in the US. And that's the kind of one we reference
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  when we reference the performance of the stock market. In the UK, it's the FTSE 100. So I've said
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  yes, the FTSE. Yes, I remember the FTSE. She sent me an email and she's about it. F-O-O-T-S-I-E.
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  It's like I'm actually full to see. How is it still? FTSE. It's an acronym.
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  That's only up 4% versus the S&P 500, which is that 8%. So they're battling away.
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  They're battling. And fair enough. And this year, the economy is expected to shrink by 0.3%.
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  Well, the whole country. The whole country. Yeah, the whole UK.
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  So it's mean it's not growing. When your country is not growing, that's not good.
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  But the key thing is that it'll be the worst performing economy in what they call these G7
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  nations, which is kind of the top seven nations in the world. So it's out of all of them.
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  Yeah, out of all of them. It's the worst performing. Considering that it was the fastest growing in 2021
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  in 2022. So it's really kind of pulled on the handbrake. Why do you think why is it so dramatic?
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  Inflation, cost of living, all of that. Was it that random Prime Minister that had a mayor?
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  Did she ruin things? Probably a bit of that.
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  What was her name? Lizzy. Lizzy. Yes. And the US is slowing as well.
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  Eva is kind of slowing, but the UK is the worst. So the US has got its lowest five-year growth rate
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  since 1990. The US? Yeah. So they're filling it as well. And globally, the world, so now it's
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  only out even more. And globally, the world has expected to only grow just under 3% this year,
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  which is its weakest growth in 30 years. So we'll go for it. Yeah, for us. We'll go next year.
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  I'm trying so hard to be positive. I know. I'm sorry. Silver lining. But it really doesn't
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  feel like there is one. I need to find some more positives. No, because I think it's also important
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  to be realister. Yeah. You know, we can't just feel like it's all going to be fine. I mean,
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  from an investing standpoint, this is a blur. So if you're investing for five years, 10 years,
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  20 years, it's fine. Try not to concern yourself. Yeah. Look long-term. I don't think it necessarily
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  needs to change the way that you invest, right? But it's more the idea that things are going to continue
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  to be really expensive. And there's going to be a lot of people around that are really struggling.
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  And the economies are just weak and they will be for a while. But it also shows how quickly things
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  can change. Like the last two years, the UK grew 7% and then 4%. You know, that's really strong.
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  And in this year, it's down. Yes, next year, it might also be weak. But like, that's part of
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  economies. Is that they grow, they contract, they grow, they contract. And we just have to realise
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  that, yeah, we can get through this. And eventually, we're having some time in the sun.
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  It's just weird, because I think because we record podcasts every week. Yeah. It's like,
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  oh, bad news. It sounds like there's a lot of bad news. Maybe we should just do them
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  monthly. Yeah, one yearly podcast. No. Because then it's just like, we bury our heads in this
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  entire time. And that's not what you do. You don't do that with parking tickets. You don't do that
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  with news, headlines. So fee. And then lastly, in France, we had some really interesting news come
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  out of there. So they've raised their retirement age from 62 years to 64 years. And there has been
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  massive uproars, like riots in the streets, like demonstrations, people storming. They stormed,
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  our protestors stormed the LVMH officers in Paris. So it's sheer price did like fantastically
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  well after the result. And then I was like, oh, no, it's like been stormed by you. But why,
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  also why people mad? Because they don't want to retire any other. Well, yeah, if you were approaching
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  retirement age, so you don't get the pension now until you're 64 instead of 62. So if you're
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  sitting there saving and you're like, yep, cool, I've got everything sorted, I budgeted, I'm investing
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  to retire at 62 and then I get the pension. Now you've got to put that out to 64. So it's an extra
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  two years. So but it is staggered. The change is staggered every three months. So if you're 60,
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  say you're 61 and a half and you're about to retire six months, it's not like you have to wait
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  another two years. It just gets pushed out three months, three months, three months until
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  until so it's like a rolling kind of so it's not like automatically today. You're going to
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  quit. Yeah. So but for us, we would have to wait till we're 64. It's an else 65 anyway.
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  I was a 65. Yes, sorry if we were in France. I feel like 60 toes pretty young to retire. I know.
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  Yeah. Yeah. I'm kind of like guys. Yeah. Let's get up with the pain. Yeah. But it's it's an
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  interesting discussion around, yeah, what age are you financially prepared to retire at?
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  Because a lot of people do just pick, okay, 65. That's why I'm going to retire, work back from
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  there. I've got 30 years, 20 years, whatever. There's so much I have to save. It's like, yeah,
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  what if you flip that on that's here and was like, hey, I actually want to retire at 60 or 50.
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  You know, what would my, what would I have to save or invest for me to be able to retire at
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  a younger age? Do you know how old do you want to be? I can be thought about 40. No, seriously,
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  have you actually thought about? No, see, I like six years. Terrifying. I'm not 34. I am.
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  Yes, I know that is that is scary. No, I've worked to 65, like, sorry, I've worked backwards
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  from 65. But I'm actually going to flip it on its head and do try and see, yeah, if I wanted to
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  retire at 50, what would that look like? What would I have to say? What would I have to increase my
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  contributions by? What would I have to grow my investments by and just see the difference
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  and have a play around? Because I think it's really interesting to find out. Because what if we get
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  to 60 and then our government changes the retirement age to 70? You know, that does throw a lot of
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  people out in terms of their planning, their financial planning. Yeah, so I hate to think how
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  long I've got to go. Yeah, but you're also doing well now. You've got your, you've got your
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  shit together now. Get it, my shit together. Yeah, I literally had to spend money out of a plastic baggy
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  on the doing beta. You know, you are fine. No, but I could be doing beta. You could be doing
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  you know, like it's, you've got to, you know, you still got to live your life. Oh god, that's such a
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  pressing conversation. Oh god. She finished with a joke. Yeah, cool. Yeah, cool. My day was cool.
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  My day was cool. I actually got a good one. I've got a good one. It's finished with a joke to
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  start the week. How does the butcher introduce his wife? Meet Paddy. That's a good one. It's a good
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  one. Meet Paddy. You can just imagine it. Oh, she did great. A night front. Okay, we need to go. Yeah,
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  this is not getting better. The longer we talk. Bye, bye. We're really excited to have partner
• 15:56
  with Audi to bring you the Curve Weekly, a podcast that encourages women to work towards driving
• 16:01
  a more progressive future. And if you haven't already, check out our savings calculator at the
• 16:06
  Curve.co.nz to help you reach your savings goals.