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Best College Football Bets for Week Four! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
Watch anything like Saturday from noon time to like 3:00
0:04
because I was in the air during kickoff and by the time I got to
0:09
the airport and home and unpacked like all the early
0:12
games are pretty much done so. Yeah, he had the worst time
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flight for college football. Well, thinking like the good
0:22
thing about it was like this Friday night, we knew we had
0:25
like, because we had it kind of like splurged little and got
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like a fancy, you know, black SUV to pick us up and take us to
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the airport. But with, with MCO, like, yeah,
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we, we went our, we, we upgraded to like Business Select for the
0:40
flight down. But it was like, oh, your flight
0:44
leaves at 849. OK, well, you need to be at MCO
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like 3 hours before that. So I was like, the driver's
0:50
going to pick you up at 6:00 AM sharp.
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Like did you use? Your targeting winners VIP card
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is that? What?
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No, but I did use the coupon that I got for a free alcoholic
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beverage for 8:15 AM on the way down.
1:03
Well, there you go. Because you were entitled to
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that for upgrading. But the good thing was Friday
1:10
night. What's that I was going to say?
1:13
Friday night, because we knew we were getting up really early, we
1:17
were back in the hotel room so I got to at least watch my 2 unit
1:20
play come home. Houston smack in Colorado
1:23
around. So I mean I watched all of that
1:25
game but yeah, by the time we got back Saturday.
1:30
And so I put my bets in for my 2 afternoon games while I was
1:33
waiting to get our bags, got home unpacked and just kind of
1:37
like no, it's 3:00 hitting the couch for the rest of the day.
1:40
And so I saw a lot of football from 3:30 on, but anything that
1:45
happened in the early slate, Nope.
1:48
So you were back in New York in time for the coach firings.
1:51
So that was that was good. Yeah, I was there.
1:53
For the important stuff, you know, the firings and yeah, I
1:58
didn't check out, I didn't even check out Mark's rankings this
2:02
past Tuesday. I'll do that later, but.
2:05
Well, I think Dabo Sweeney's going to be moving up the charts
2:08
a little bit. I.
2:09
Don't. Think they'll fire him?
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I mean, you can't. I mean, come on.
2:14
Well, it's all your usual suspects like, oh, you know
2:17
what? Saturday when we landed in
2:19
Florida, we were at the the pool bar and I did catch like the
2:25
last five minutes of South Florida, Florida.
2:27
But while we were waiting for our snacks and beverages, I was
2:32
like, wow, I just thought Napier's fired before like my
2:36
first day in Florida's even over with.
2:40
Well, had an interesting night last night Yeah, you probably
2:45
can't tell here. I got my arms in a sling playing
2:49
beer league hockey, so a guy was sliding towards me and couldn't
2:53
stop because ice is slippery. I've.
2:55
Heard that? Wrong.
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I could not jump high enough to get over him.
2:59
I was airborne upside down and gravity took care of the rest.
3:03
So happy to report nothing broken.
3:05
Nothing. Just nothing dislocated.
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It just hurts like hell. So I'm playing through the pain
3:09
today. Will you?
3:10
Will you be red shirting and, you know, take the rest of the
3:13
year off from the show? Well, we are less than four
3:18
weeks in this. Is this the cut off right?
3:20
I don't, I don't want you to transfer to another program
3:25
because you know, you, you kind of responsible for this thing
3:27
even being a thing at this point.
3:29
So I'm a producer, damn it. Yeah.
3:33
Graphics producer. Director.
3:36
Something like that. So you got.
3:38
All the titles bro. What was that?
3:40
You ever listened to Jim Rohn back in the day when one of the
3:43
coaches got fired and there was like a newscaster and he's like,
3:46
if you're going to work this morning, you're not, I think it
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was Doug, Doug, maybe Doug Collins or Mike Fratello or
3:53
something. If you're going to work today,
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you're not Mike Fratello. It's like if you're going to
3:57
work today, you're going to work today.
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Sean Foster. I remember some guys, I don't
4:02
know if it was the Howard Stern show or whatever, but they would
4:05
take like the biggest blowout of the day and be like if you took
4:09
UC Irvine plus 47 1/2, you lost. I was living in Maryland at the
4:19
time. I can't remember what show it
4:20
was, but they just picked like the biggest blowout of the day.
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If you had so and so plus 62 1/2, you lost.
4:30
Right, what do you say we start the show?
4:33
Yeah, let's do this. I got to do laundry and upload.
4:35
All right, all right, everybody. Welcome to party Winner from
4:40
Florida, Tim here. And from New York, we have
4:43
Darren going to look back at Week 3, pretty eventful week.
4:50
Pete is on vacation. He's at a cat convention in New
4:53
York City, so we'll see how many cats he brings home this time.
4:58
They'll have to match your wife's Christmas ornaments and
5:00
Christmas trees. We'll see what goes on there,
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but yeah. It's September 18th and there's
5:07
only one tree up and it's Halloween.
5:10
It's Halloween decorated though. It's the year long theme tree.
5:15
So yeah, it's it's Halloween. There's a little ghost Topper
5:18
that lights up. Yeah.
5:20
Well, Colleen, better tighten up.
5:21
Got a few more trees up there. So in another month there'll be
5:24
one behind me if I ever record up here 'cause, you know.
5:28
So oh, Virginia Tech, UCLA, they got rid of their coaches.
5:35
Have you heard anything of possible replacements?
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Or I think they lost a defensive coordinator too.
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Didn't Virginia Tech's? UCLA defensive coordinator got
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canned yesterday. Yeah, I guess they didn't lose
5:46
them. They.
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Yeah, they got. Yeah.
5:48
Well, he did not choose to leave.
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He was shown the door. They lost so much on defence
5:54
coming in of the year he was kind of behind the 8 ball to
5:56
start with. But the New Mexico lost didn't
5:59
do anybody any favors and they are going into their bye week.
6:02
So if if you're going to clean house and get some new blood in
6:04
there, this is the week to do so.
6:08
As far as Virginia Tech, that dude probably should have got
6:11
canned last year. Or Metallica's taking their song
6:14
back until. Virginia, I saw that.
6:17
Post I mean, yeah, I don't know what you're going to do there
6:19
that's not working anymore but the interesting thing to to go
6:24
with that is now you know when we talked yesterday and as soon
6:28
as we were we finished talking there was some portal news that
6:31
dropped. The NCAA is eliminating the
6:34
spring portal window. So now it's just going to be 1
6:38
window yet to be voted on, but probably 10 days, probably
6:41
sometime in January. But the 30 days from when your
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coach gets fired or resigns or quits or whatever, that's still
6:50
going to be a thing. So Virginia Tech did lose their
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one of their top defensive backs this week in the portal and
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it'll be interesting to see if anybody else from the Hokies or
7:01
UCLA decides to hit. Maybe Nico jumps in again, who
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knows, and goes to poles, I have no idea.
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We shall see. Lot earlier than than usual, so
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yeah. Well, we had a better week than
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the coaches, so 6:00 and 3:00. Yeah, let's let's take a few
7:17
seconds to gloat. Six and three.
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We all went two and one to keep the math nice and simple.
7:24
One of those wins was was a 2 unit play as well.
7:27
So if you blindly followed us, first of all, thanks, what's the
7:31
matter with you? But thank you.
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And you made a little over 3.2 units on the week if you played
7:37
everything we did. So all right, enough of that.
7:42
That week's over with, using that money to make our bets for
7:45
this week and let's see if we can do it again.
7:48
We'll keep it going. So why don't we just jump right
7:51
into our games here? First one, where is it?
7:56
There it is. This is one of mine coming up
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here. We've got Utah and Texas Tech.
8:03
I believe Utah is giving 3 1/2 points.
8:07
Texas Tech. I bet on Utah for this game.
8:11
The stats statistically we're still early in the season, but
8:15
we're pretty close to where teams try to tell us who they
8:17
are. Turnover ratio advantages on
8:22
Utah, I'm concerned about the noon kickoff.
8:25
What the Hell's up with that? I mean it's.
8:27
Like 10:00 AM local time like this.
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Game screams 730 kickoff. You know, this game just I mean,
8:34
this game would be awesome, you know, even though it's not their
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beloved big 10 or SEC And I mean, but this is this would
8:40
just be an awesome 7:00 game. So but so I'm sure the crowd
8:46
will still be into it. I mean, it is Utah after all.
8:50
You know, they are very good on 3rd down.
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They're they convert almost 75% of the time.
8:55
I'll give it, it's only through the first few weeks, but given
8:59
that they're at home 3 1/2, I'm just worried about that half a
9:03
point, but not worried enough to not bet it.
9:06
So I like Utah here covering the 3 1/2.
9:09
What do you think? Yeah, I've, I've for every
9:12
article that I've read that says take Texas Tech, I've heard
9:15
somebody say, no, I love Utah in this game.
9:17
And I kind of agree with you just from a defensive
9:20
standpoint. Texas Tech was terrible last
9:22
year. I know they had an incredible
9:24
portal haul. But even though these these
9:27
teams are three games into the season now, looking at who they
9:31
played, yeah, at one point the Utah win over UCLA meant
9:35
something. But now what do you get out of
9:37
that? UCLA is apparently God awful
9:39
this year. I do lean Utah as well.
9:43
I would love to have have seen a three somewhere 'cause like I
9:47
said, I think this 10:00 AM local time kick start kick off
9:51
is is going to take some adjusting.
9:53
I mean, these guys aren't playing at 10 AM usually.
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But, you know, we we gloated and loved Devin Dampier and how much
10:02
he could possibly be a dark horse for the Heisman.
10:04
Well, here's his here's his chance.
10:07
But yeah, I think defensively, I, I give a pretty significant
10:10
edge to Utah 3 1/2. Like I say, I know you're
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worried about that 3 1/2 and maybe rightfully so.
10:17
But I I agree with the side. I like Utah as well.
10:20
But I mean, I would hold out for a three, but I don't know if
10:23
you're going to get it. I think I I read the Emperor's
10:27
only there's only been two sacks this year.
10:30
Well, he's quite elusive. I mean, he's he's difficult to
10:32
bring down. I mean, he saw that when he was
10:35
on New Mexico and you knew they were passing all the time
10:37
because New Mexico's defense was so bad and you still couldn't
10:40
really sack the guy. But his problem last year, yeah,
10:42
just made some poor throws. Doesn't look like that's an
10:45
issue, at least to start the year.
10:46
So could be a nice, nice. Hey, guys, now you know who I
10:51
am. But yeah, I agree with you on
10:54
the side. OK.
10:56
All right. Now we got one of yours up here,
10:58
Darren. We got UTEP and Louisiana
11:00
Monroe. Take it away.
11:01
Yeah, it's my obscure game of the week here.
11:04
I, I, I came into the season high on UTEP.
11:07
I do have a a futures bet on them over 5 1/2 for a win total.
11:12
A little bit of plus money here. I was kind of impressed with
11:16
with them going into Texas thinking you know, OK, just a
11:20
paycheck game for the Miners here.
11:22
They would just get blown out. They were a 39 1/2 point
11:25
underdog. They actually played kind of
11:28
good considering, you know, the athletes on UTEP.
11:32
Let's face it, they're not going to match up size wise, strength
11:35
wise, speed wise, what the Texas Longhorns have.
11:39
But to their credit down with Malachi Nelson, even though he
11:41
threw 2 picks, he had more passing yards in Arch Manning.
11:44
They were only out gained by 81 yards overall for the game.
11:49
I think defensively this team is taking a big step forward and
11:53
you look at Louisiana Monroe, they're they're coming off of my
11:57
week. So maybe that's why the spread
11:58
is is it's actually it's 6 1/2 now.
12:01
I got it a couple days ago at 5 1/2.
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I would still go up to 6 1/2 here.
12:05
You know, they start off against an FCS opponent, St.
12:08
Francis. They're like a 31 point
12:10
favorite. They won 29 to nothing.
12:13
But this is the Saint Francis team that's currently O and
12:15
three and have been outscored 105 to 13.
12:20
That's a team that ULM should have, should have curb stomped
12:23
and they did not. And then they went to Alabama
12:25
the following week to collect their paycheck and they lost 73
12:29
to nothing. Ty Simpson completed all
12:32
seventeen of his passes. This is just a ULM team that
12:35
does not look like it doesn't look like it's going to be a
12:39
good year for them. And again, they started off 5
12:40
and one last year and they still did.
12:42
Not make a ball game. It's just, you know, I think
12:46
UTEP maybe looks at how they did against Texas.
12:49
And I'm not a moral victory kind of guy, but Scotty Walden seems
12:55
to to be that kind of guy. So maybe this springboards them.
12:58
And Conference USA Liberty is obviously trash.
13:01
They lost a Bowling Green last week.
13:03
So this is probably the worst conference in football.
13:06
So who knows who's going to win this thing.
13:08
But I think this is a, this is a spot where UTEP puts it all
13:12
together. And despite Louisiana Monroe
13:14
coming off the bye week, that their quarterback play is
13:17
terrible. Now defensively, UTEP's already
13:19
registered 10 sacks on the year. So they're playing better on
13:23
both sides of the ball. So I would still lay the 6 1/2,
13:26
which looks like, according to Vegas Insider, that's what's
13:29
available pretty much everywhere.
13:31
But if they won this by double digits, I would not be
13:34
surprised. I didn't go 2 units on this.
13:37
I don't want to push my luck, but I think UTEP, I think they
13:41
they, they make a statement here and then they roll.
13:44
OK, I have not seen either of these teams play yet, so as far
13:48
as my thoughts, I do not have any.
13:50
I'm going to watch this weekend because you've got the.
13:53
I, I saw the first UTEP game against Utah State.
13:57
We know Utah State is a pretty fun offensive club, but I mean,
14:02
they gave up 28 points to them, but they also had like 7 or 8
14:05
penalties. So I mean, they kind of shot
14:06
themselves in the foot. But I'll put too much stock into
14:09
your first game of the year. Really.
14:12
You know, I just asked Louisiana Monroe for not steamrolling St.
14:15
Francis. But yeah, Utah played good.
14:18
I think they're going to take something from this Texas game
14:20
and they're going to roll here. I want to go back to one of mine
14:24
here. We've got the Arizona State.
14:26
They're getting 2 1/2 at Baylor. I like this Baylor.
14:31
I've seen this, seen two of their games already this year,
14:33
which is odd, but you know, I saw the Auburn game, saw the SMU
14:37
game. I like the offense a lot.
14:41
I like the fact that they are at home.
14:44
They're giving 2 1/2. I think it did go up.
14:48
I think it went up a little bit on Hard Rock bets.
14:52
I didn't check it this morning, but when I bet, it was +2 or -2
14:57
1/2. So the running game concerns me.
15:01
Scataboo's gone, but they still have a running back there who
15:05
looks very more than capable. Concerned with Baylor's
15:11
defensive line. They're having some trouble
15:13
stopping the run, but I think it's a high, high scoring game.
15:18
I almost wanted to bet the over with this as well, but I like
15:23
Baylor. Giving the 2 1/2 at home gets
15:26
Arizona State. Yeah, for that number, I I would
15:29
agree with you there, but normally I wouldn't if this was
15:32
on the the RPO segment at the end, I could not run away far
15:35
enough from this game. I, I bet Baylor first week of
15:39
the season, I thought they could take care of Auburn, but like
15:41
you said, apparently watching the quarterback run all over the
15:44
place, We, we're not going to adjust for that.
15:46
We're just going to let them do it for all four quarters.
15:48
So but boy, offensively they are elite.
15:53
I, I, I would agree with your over assessment here, but I
15:57
would not want any part of this side here.
16:00
So. Yeah, I noticed you.
16:02
Man for putting putting this one out there.
16:05
The two players I, I like from week 122 and one, the receiver,
16:11
they have fallen off. They weren't near the production
16:14
that I saw against Auburn, but maybe there'll be a resurgence
16:17
for that kid. So I think one thing I've
16:21
noticed between NFL and college is the talent level, but also
16:25
the coaching level. I mean, there's some, I mean,
16:29
some of these coaches you're like wondering what the hell
16:31
they're thinking sometimes. So.
16:33
But yeah, Baylor minus the 2 1/2.
16:37
Oh, that's Stanford Cardinal. Yeah, I'm I'm, I'm fading
16:43
Stanford here, even though I've already been on Virginia once
16:47
and and they blew a double digit lead in the second-half and cost
16:50
me a A+ money money line play a couple weeks ago.
16:55
I just really like what this team has brought in through the
16:58
portal. Usually they don't go that
16:59
route, but this year they really did go all in.
17:03
One of the things that we talked about last year and then there
17:06
is some validity to it is with teams that travel across at
17:09
least two time zones are usually very poor bets against the
17:12
spread. Stanford will be travelling all
17:14
the way across the country here for this game.
17:17
And if you need proof, has it happened this year?
17:19
Yeah, it happened last week. Boston College flew all the way
17:22
out to Stanford. They were a 13 point favorite
17:24
and lost outright by 10. So there is something to that
17:30
Stanford, they, they can run the ball.
17:32
They they have had some success running the ball, but their
17:35
quarterback is pretty poor. And I'll just say that he
17:40
probably single handedly cost him the Hawaii game in week
17:43
zero. And through three games,
17:45
Stanford's only put up 800 yards in total offense.
17:48
Virginia's got 800 yards rushing and over 800 yards passing
17:51
already. Chandler Morris, who who I I
17:53
love for for the Cavaliers here, I think he's going to have a
17:56
huge game. My only concern is when did the
17:59
starters come out and does the back door open here for the
18:03
Cardinal? But I believe I got what, 15
18:06
1/2? I think in some places it's 16
18:08
1/2 now. I would still take it all the
18:11
way up to 60. And I think the time change is
18:14
going to affect Stanford. I don't think Stanford's as good
18:16
as as they looked. I think Boston College maybe
18:19
more or less handed them that with some some poor play,
18:21
especially late second quarter early in the third.
18:24
But I mean, Stanford's still still a really, really bad team
18:28
here. And I wasn't that high on Boston
18:29
College either. So I think Virginia gets right
18:33
here. They keep the offense rolling
18:34
that that that time zone change is going to affect the Cardinal.
18:38
What a time zone. It's, I'm telling you it's a
18:42
thing it. Was that's how.
18:44
It's been this year. Yeah, especially with some of
18:48
the. Beauty of this realignment with
18:49
some of these teams coming all the way across the country.
18:52
I mean, we saw it when Washington came all the way to
18:55
play Rutgers. Yeah, they should have won that
18:57
game. But just a lot of mental
18:58
mistakes. Rutgers ended up covering that
19:00
game. I'll tell you there, there's a
19:02
ton of examples where where this is a thing.
19:04
Plus, Stanford, I don't think is a very good football club.
19:06
So, yeah, give me Virginia to cover.
19:09
But I think I got 15 1/2. But they should wear this one by
19:12
three touchdowns now. We're going to move on.
19:15
Michigan State at USCI took a page out of Pete's book.
19:20
Not going for a winner here. I'm playing the over.
19:24
It's 55 1/2, I believe. My analysis of this is that both
19:29
their defenses are, they're not, they're not good and their
19:36
offenses are very capable. They can obviously put up some
19:39
points. I don't think they'll be as kind
19:42
to me as Notre Dame and Texas and them last week covering by
19:44
halftime, but I do think they can get up over that probably by
19:49
I'm expecting by, you know, mid to late third quarter they will
19:52
have hit this. And so it's 55 1/2.
19:59
Yeah, I I just USC they're terrible.
20:02
I mean, neither I don't think either teams really had a top
20:06
level offense. They've played again.
20:09
So they're still giving up points left and right.
20:12
So yeah, this this just screams over.
20:15
I know 55 is a little high. But I think they'll still get
20:18
there. So yeah, I got the taking one of
20:21
Peter's bets here. I got the over at 55 1/2.
20:25
Yeah, I agree with that. I I watched the Michigan State
20:28
Boston College game. That was one I gave out the week
20:30
before I left on vacation. You know, Michigan State put up
20:35
42 points. Charles is looking looking
20:38
better. Nick Marsh, their their wide
20:41
receiver is questionable here. But defensively Michigan State
20:45
is terrible. They made that Boston look like
20:48
Joe Montana for crying out loud. Their secondary is awful.
20:52
When you're going up against the Maya V and USC here, that that
20:56
is not a good thing. USC last week against Purdue
20:59
didn't punt at all, did have to settle for four field goals, but
21:03
still they they still put up 33 even even settling for all those
21:09
field goals. And defensively, they let Purdue
21:11
kind of go up and down the field.
21:14
Purdue's quarterback had three picks, I believe, all in USC
21:17
territory. So Purdue was moving it.
21:21
I mean, that's not what you expect when you watch Purdue.
21:24
So 2 questionable defenses. I think USC could still cover
21:29
this game. We, we talked about the time
21:30
zone thing. It's an 11:00 start time, you
21:34
know, which is 8:00 in Southern Cal, Michigan State.
21:39
They're probably all in bed by, you know, this time.
21:41
So I think keep an eye on that. Could be close first half since
21:46
second-half USC pulls away here. But yeah, neither of these
21:50
defenses give me any confidence. I like that play as well.
21:53
I still think it's going to be like, you know, 4238 something
21:57
like that around the the score. I mean, they gave him 20 points
22:01
at home to was it Georgia Southern?
22:02
They played a few weeks ago in week 1 or Week 2.
22:05
I think they gave him like 23 points to like, Georgia Southern
22:08
as at Yeah, And that was another time zone game, too.
22:11
So even with the time zone, they still gave up 20 points to, you
22:15
know, a group of five teams. So that's Yeah.
22:18
So there's my play and we will. Oh boy, the Tim.
22:23
Ball, I'm glad you saved this one for last cause yeah, when
22:28
we, when we started this show, we were just kind of like, you
22:30
know, we're just going to be two idiots.
22:32
Now we're up to three idiots. But, you know, just basically
22:36
talking college football, if we were all sitting around in a
22:38
bar, like you could just sit with us and we would just talk
22:41
about stuff like this. The the observer in me has
22:48
watched a couple Florida games, has seen a couple of Miami
22:51
games, and you would think it's 7 1/2.
22:54
I would be like knocking over old ladies to run to the window
22:58
and and bet on Miami here. But I went the opposite way,
23:02
one, because 7 1/2 now you got to take that hook there.
23:06
But, I mean, we saw it last year, man, when Napier's ass is
23:12
on the line. I mean, Florida still plays for
23:15
this guy. And yeah, they crapped the bed
23:18
against South Florida and the talks started up again.
23:20
But you know, you had a spitting penalty in there that helped put
23:24
South Florida in field goal range.
23:26
And you look at that LSU game, I mean, their defense is legit.
23:31
I mean, they got some elite athletes on that side of the
23:34
ball. They're playing really well.
23:36
And you know, they lost 20 to 10.
23:38
But one of those was a pick 6 is DJ Lagway.
23:41
And it's 5 interceptions and you only lost 20 to 10 on the road
23:47
against the potential national championship contending team.
23:51
I mean, somebody's, I was reading something somebody said,
23:54
you'll know right away whether this game is going to be
23:58
competitive or not. And I agree with that.
24:01
It's all going to depend on Lagway.
24:03
I mean, he can't possibly play. It's bad again.
24:07
And I mean, you know, living down there, these Florida games,
24:10
whether it's Miami, FL State, Florida, I mean, you kind of
24:15
throw all the stats and all that crap out the window.
24:19
This, I think this is going to be a competitive game.
24:23
I don't think Florida's going to win.
24:25
I don't think they're going to get steamrolled either.
24:27
I mean, this still is the ACC against the SEC.
24:33
Yeah, I don't know. I don't know something just tell
24:36
like, like I said, the fan in me would think Miami by 24.
24:41
But the you know, the the guy who looks at the box scores and
24:45
and tries to to make money for myself and our listeners and
24:48
viewers every week. I just got a feeling this is
24:51
going to be a close game. And since I got 7 1/2, I'm more
24:56
willing to take that chance that if it was 6 1/2, I might have
24:59
just left it alone. But yeah, man, Florida's defense
25:03
is no joke. I think they keep him in this
25:06
one. I think Lagway, he's got a
25:08
rebound. He can't possibly suck that bad.
25:11
So yeah, man, this big rivalry, Florida, Yeah, man, give me the
25:16
Gators and the seven and a half. Well, I, I don't know if you've
25:20
heard it up here, I don't know where I've heard it down here,
25:22
but they're calling them DJ Yui Yuiyunga Lagway.
25:25
Yeah, how many DJDJ giveaway? So yeah, the prompt, the two
25:34
main problems I have with this game is I don't want Miami to
25:37
win and I want Florida to lose, so.
25:41
That would be a problem because yeah.
25:43
That's a problem. So both of those things are.
25:45
Not going to happen. So I guess I'll make targeting
25:48
winners history here. I'm going to give out a 0 unit
25:50
play. I I disagree with you 100%.
25:54
I think Miami is going to. I would roll over a whole bus
25:59
full of old ladies to lay down 7 1/2 on Miami to just demolish
26:06
Florida. Miami's no joke either.
26:09
I mean, even with crystal ball, but he usually doesn't crystal
26:12
ball until late October, early November, so he's still in.
26:16
To to be fair, I agree with everything you said.
26:19
If Miami wins this game by 40, I would not be surprised.
26:22
But you know, Miami's overachieving.
26:24
Maybe crystal ball. Crystal Ball is a little earlier
26:26
than he's used to It's. I mean, if if Miami wins this
26:30
game by 17, I'll be surprised because I thought it would be a
26:33
lot more. Yeah, they love to just run it
26:38
up, especially when it's this in state rivalry thing.
26:40
If they get a chance to just lay it down, they're they're going
26:43
to. I believe Jimmy Johnson is going
26:45
to be in there again. Give him the go out there and
26:47
run it up. Don't stop, you know?
26:51
Yeah, we know. Notre Dame's have got a terrible
26:53
defense this year so far. So I mean, who else?
26:56
Miami played South Florida, terrible defense.
26:58
Notre Dame so far, terrible defense, which I never thought I
27:01
would say, yeah, Florida's giving up.
27:06
Well, Florida's giving up like 12 points a game.
27:08
It's they they haven't played a defense like this, although they
27:11
should have in week one. They didn't.
27:15
This is a different, this is a different, this is different
27:20
animal here. You know the SEC just means
27:22
more. Yeah, I'm surprised.
27:25
Game day is there. Isn't Auburn.
27:28
Auburn's playing Oklahoma. Yeah, they already went.
27:31
They already saw Oklahoma, I think this year, right?
27:33
Aren't didn't they? I don't know.
27:36
Yeah, they were just there last week, weren't they?
27:39
Maybe I remember. I got McAfee, I think think in
27:42
Oklahoma, yeah, but that's our first big disagreement here we
27:48
got. Yeah, you and I usually don't
27:50
have them. But The thing is, I agree with
27:52
all your points, you know, and, and from what I've seen, it
27:57
wouldn't surprise me, but the seven and a half is enticing and
28:02
Florida's defense can keep him in it.
28:03
It's all it's all on Lagway. I That's sounds kind of easy to
28:07
say, but that's the truth. All right, well, let's move on.
28:13
We're cruising here. These last two shows have been
28:15
good, but only two of them. I.
28:18
Know I'll take blowhards instead of 2.
28:19
Hours to upload the video. Can't wait all.
28:23
Right. We're going to do the RPO
28:24
segment, rice -2 1/2 at Charlotte.
28:27
That is tonight. It is added that just because it
28:31
is tonight and maybe somebody wants to try and get their week
28:33
off with a bag, it's game Open Rice 6 1/2 got all the way down
28:38
to 2 1/2. I think now it's gone too.
28:40
If it was 6 1/2, I still would have taken Charlotte 2 1/2.
28:44
Now if I had to bet this just to have some action, I would take
28:47
Rice here. Yeah, I was saying just for that
28:50
reason, if it's going to bet it down that much, take rice, give
28:52
it 2 1/2 SMU, getting 7 at TCU, I would go, I would take SMU in
28:58
the points here that that would be my run to the betting window.
29:03
God, they struggled against Missouri State for far too long.
29:07
Kind of like TCU. I don't think they're as good as
29:09
them whooping up on North Carolina, but Josh Hoover's
29:13
legit man. I mean I would maybe hold out.
29:16
See if you get 6 1/2 you want TCU or 7 1/2 you want SMU.
29:21
No play here, just lean towards TCU.
29:24
Yeah, Arkansas -7 1/2 at Memphis.
29:26
This would be a pass for me. I don't like that line at all.
29:31
I would take Memphis if you're a believer at this point of season
29:34
and look ahead. Arkansas plays Notre Dame next
29:36
week. Memphis.
29:39
I mean, I know Seth Hennigan's not there anymore, but usually
29:42
one of the more decent Group of Five squads out there.
29:45
Maybe just because it's 7 1/2 lean Memphis.
29:47
But yeah, no play for me either. Maryland plus 10 at Wisconsin.
29:51
I'll run with Wisconsin. Agreed.
29:54
And Maryland is asked, Wisconsin's kind of asked too.
29:57
But I believe, I don't think Billy Edwards, the Maryland
30:00
transfer of is healthy enough to play quarterback for them.
30:03
But Wisconsin should roll here, not out of Maryland.
30:06
We do have this Oregon State at Oregon.
30:09
That's one of Pete's plays, which we'll give out in a
30:12
minute. I'm running and giving the 35.
30:15
I think first I didn't think, I thought it was too high.
30:17
Then I saw what Dan Lanning did to Oklahoma State.
30:20
He's a gangster. I think he's going to just run
30:22
up and blow these guys out. So I don't mind giving a giving
30:25
a big line with. Oregon, Yeah, Oregon State's
30:28
kind of ass this year. Yeah, I would.
30:30
I know it's rivalry, civil war, whatever the hell they call it,
30:33
but yeah, Oregon should rolled her.
30:35
Look Oregon plus 6 1/2 at Oklahoma.
30:38
I I'm leaning to Auburn here. If I was going to run to the
30:41
window, I would bet Auburn. I'd be all over the shooters
30:45
here, man. I, I, I get it.
30:46
Jackson Arnold, now the Auburn quarterback coming back to
30:48
Oklahoma, He knows his defense. He used to see it in practice a
30:52
lot last year. We know what Oklahoma's defense
30:54
used to see him in practice all last year.
30:56
Dude hasn't shown he can throw the ball with any consistency
31:00
that they they can take away his ability to run.
31:03
They're top get in the portal. Wide receiver Singleton
31:06
questionable here. Or maybe it's because I have the
31:09
Sooners and an alternate win total.
31:11
At least eight regular season wins at night, plus money.
31:13
And I kind of need this here. Yeah, 6 1/2.
31:17
I'd take the Sooners here. I think they're going to win.
31:20
Tulane Plus 13 1/2 at Ole Miss. I still hate Lane Kiffin.
31:24
Hard pass. Agreed, I wouldn't touch this
31:28
game but I guess if I had to take a lien I would take a shot
31:32
at Tulane. I I believe Simmons Austin
31:35
Simmons is questionable to play here so if he plays I'm not
31:38
expecting him to be 100%. I'd take the points if I had to
31:42
be there. But Purdue getting 25 1/2 at the
31:45
fighting Marcus Raymond's. That's a big player.
31:49
Marcus Remens have not been. Playing.
31:50
They're going to win here. Remember last year when they
31:54
lost to Northern Illinois and Notre Dame went from like a 10
31:57
point favorite all the way down to seven and then they won 66 to
32:01
7? I don't know if it's going to be
32:04
that bad again, but despite who had Notre Dame Twitter or the
32:10
defence coordinator who they call Chris Trash instead of
32:13
Chris Ash's actual name, who has ruined a top five defence in a
32:18
mere 8 quarters of football. I mean as much Notre Dame as I
32:25
watch, I'm I'm not calling 66 to 7.
32:27
They should cover here. But if you've watched that
32:30
defense, how do you lay 25 1/2 against the Purdue team that we
32:35
saw could move the ball against USC last week?
32:37
I'd I would stay away. Stay away.
32:41
Hard pass. We got North Carolina, the
32:43
Fighting Belichicks getting 7 points at UCF right away.
32:51
If you have to sit there and think about it that long, it's
32:53
it's it should be an automatic pass you.
32:55
Know it is a pass. I, I mean, I first bet I made
32:59
this year North Carolina over their win total.
33:02
This was a game I thought they could win.
33:04
They're sitting at 2:00 and 1:00.
33:05
They're playing better defensively.
33:08
But bro, I hate to say this to you and don't slap me through
33:10
the computer. Gio Lopez is not.
33:12
He's not in not look good. I.
33:15
Have a little tear every week. Do you trust Scott Frost to do
33:18
anything correctly as long as he's a head coach anywhere?
33:21
But yeah, the fact that I took a second and a half without saying
33:24
anything, Easy pass here for me. But secretly rooting for North
33:28
Carolina to pull the upset. NC State plus 3 1/2 at Duke.
33:31
I would run to the window for NC State.
33:33
I almost made that play this week.
33:35
I was so close. That was the one game I whittled
33:37
out of my my 4:00 to get down to three.
33:40
I whittled out that so I would run to NC State, getting 3 1/2
33:43
at Duke. I disagree.
33:45
I would, I would take Duke here. They're kind of desperate losing
33:48
to Illinois. Yeah, they got, they got to get
33:51
themselves a nice conference win to get the to get their ACC
33:54
season started here we're. Disagreeing.
33:57
I mean, what's, what's Pete going to?
33:58
Think I know like what Pete's going to look at this and just
34:01
start drinking because you and I usually always agree here.
34:04
I think just a desperation factor.
34:06
I mean, North Carolina State's undefeated.
34:07
Duke kind of needs this. They're at home.
34:10
Yeah. Let's let's Mensa and the $8
34:12
million you paid him now. Now is the time for it to pay
34:14
off. I would take Duke here all.
34:16
Right, West Virginia plus 12 1/2 at Kansas.
34:20
Oof. West Virginia had a, you know,
34:23
nice run last week. I don't see this.
34:27
This is going to be a pass. I think 12 1/2.
34:29
Yeah, this spreads actually. Spreads gone up.
34:33
I would be all over Kansas here. This was actually the the last
34:36
game that I kicked out of my bets.
34:40
Love Kansas. What they're doing offensively,
34:42
defensively, they're actually playing a little better than I
34:44
thought. West Virginia, not a lot
34:46
expected of them. They had their big rivalry game
34:49
against Pittsburgh down 10, 5 minutes ago, came back, tied it
34:55
up, wanted it overtime. Big let down spot here for West
34:58
Virginia and Rich Rod. I mean, Rich Rod's crying on the
35:00
sidelines after the game is over.
35:02
They're spent man Kansas. Kansas by like 21.
35:07
South Carolina getting 10 at Missouri.
35:11
We on Lenore Sellers watch, is he going to play?
35:15
He's probable apparently sometime tonight.
35:19
All the injury reports that are now mandatory come out if he
35:22
plays. Is he 100%?
35:24
Who knows. Missouri looks pretty.
35:25
Legit I would lay the. I would lay the tat if I had.
35:28
All right, I'm passing on that one.
35:30
Illinois getting sick, that Indiana.
35:32
I would run with Indiana on this one.
35:34
I think I would run to the window and bet it.
35:37
If you were, you should have got it when it opened at like 2 1/2
35:40
or three. I think Indiana's winning and
35:43
I'm I'm again, I have an over 8 1/2 on Indiana here. 6 is too
35:48
much it it's too. Much.
35:52
Yeah. This is this screams like a
35:54
three-point game. So I mean, if you're if you're
35:56
going to give me 6 as much as it would pain me, Indiana wins does
36:00
not cover. I would take Illinois.
36:02
And the last one of the RPO we got Washington given 19 1/2 at
36:06
Washington State. I would take Washington all day
36:10
long, and I only say this because I bet North Texas over
36:15
Washington State. Last week I laid the five and a
36:17
half and they won 59 to 3 or whatever it was.
36:21
Washington state looks terrible. Give me Washington.
36:25
I know it's rivalry game, Apple Cup or whatever the hell they
36:27
call it. Give me Washington all day long
36:29
here. All right, so we're going to
36:31
wrap this up. Let's review our picks for the
36:33
week. We have Pete and he has Oregon,
36:37
Oregon State over 57 1/2. He has Michigan, Nebraska, he's
36:43
got the over of 45 1/2 and Iowa, Rutgers.
36:47
Hey, look, Iowa game, you're going to take the under 45 1/2.
36:52
I love two of those I I love that Michigan, Nebraska play
36:57
Tron Moore's not coaching. He's serving the second of his
37:00
two game suspension and our boy Biff Poggi, who Bryce Underwood
37:05
run wild last week, probably going to do the same thing again
37:08
here. Nebraska's pass game is is kind
37:11
of decent. Rayola definitely taking a a
37:13
step forward there under Horson is the duo C I like that and
37:18
Iowa, Rutgers, one of the Rutgers top receivers, Ian
37:21
Strong is supposed to be out. Yep, I I love those two from
37:25
him. OK, my bets this week I've got
37:28
Utah -3 1/2 over Texas Tech, Baylor -2 1/2 over Arizona State
37:34
and Michigan State. USC I've got the over 55 1/2.
37:37
Aaron, what do you got? Florida plus 7 1/2 over the
37:41
Hurricanes. I'm taking Virginia laying the
37:43
15 1/2 over Stanford and UTEP -5 1/2 over Louisiana Monroe.
37:49
All right, well, that'll wrap it up.
37:50
Thank you all for listening. Please don't forget to like and
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leave some comments. We'll land some back as soon as
37:59
we can. You can help leave your Nets.
38:02
Yeah, let us know who you're betting on here too as well.
38:05
So once again, thank you all for listening and we will catch you
38:08
next week.