Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Morgan Stanley Just Gave a Dire Warning (Most Aren't Ready) + Stock Market News 08 July 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Morgan Stanley Just Gave a Dire Warning (Most Aren't Ready) + Stock Market News 08 July 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: This pisses me off.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Wall Street just shared something so important.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: They shared it only with their big money clients, not you.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Literally, the biggest risk and the biggest opportunity at the same time, and everyone is positioned wrong.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Mainstream media isn't talking about it.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: I bought two stocks because I saw the same thing that these guys were seeing about two weeks ago, June 22nd.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: I bought X-Fi, EXFY, went up 34% since.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I bought TNB up about 58% since.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I shared those with you because I believe you deserve to know.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: And if you agree with me that this kind of information should be available to everyone, then write everyone in the comments down below.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: And what I'm about to show you explains why those stocks moved and where the next wave of money is going.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: These guys, Wall Street, calls it the broadening.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Literally, Wall Street's top stock analyst published this very research note telling institutional clients, you know, the ones paying millions a year, exactly how to position for this.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: And by the end of this video, you know what they know.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: You'll understand the biggest rotation happening in the market right now, which stocks are about to lose momentum and which ones are about to gain it, and how to make sure you're standing on the right side when the music stops.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I apologize, I wasn't gonna make this video.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I literally read this report on the flight over here, and I posted a little screenshot of it and said, You guys want to know?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: And you overwhelmingly said, Yes, so here it is.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: So let me explain what they're talking about.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: What is the broadening?
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you don't understand this concept, nothing else to say in this video is gonna make sense.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: For the last two and a half years, the stock market has been a one-trick pony.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: One trade dominated everything.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Semiconductors, AI chips, right?
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: That trade went so far, so fast it dragged the entire SP higher almost single-handedly.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: And meanwhile, some of the stocks you think were safe, the big tech names that everybody earns, have been getting quietly destroyed.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft is down almost 30%.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Some of the biggest, most well-known companies in the world have been underperforming for ages.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: And these are the kind of stocks your financial advisor told you were safe, long-term holds.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: And many of them have been bleeding money while Nvidia stole all the oxygen in the room.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: So when you heard the market is up this year, that wasn't really the full story.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: The semiconductor trade was up, the AI chip bet was up.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: A huge number of stocks, including the ones a lot of you own, were going nowhere, or worse, they were going down.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's the analogy I want you to think about.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine a basketball team where one player scores all the points.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: He puts up like 60 a game, everyone else scores four.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, you might win some games, but that's a very, very fragile team, right?
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: If that one player gets tired or injured, the whole team collapses.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now imagine all five players start scoring.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's contributing, that is a much stronger team, harder to beat.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the broadening.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: The money is finally spreading out from that one superstar, the semiconductors, to the rest of the team.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: And the stocks that have been beaten down, underperforming, left for dead, they're starting to wake up.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: And here's why this matters to you specifically.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: If you've been investing for the last two years, there's a very good chance your portfolio is heavily loaded towards semiconductor stocks, AI place, tech heavy index funds, because that's worked, right?
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's what mainstream media told you, that's what every YouTube channel out there is telling you.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: But the broadening means the old winners may not be the next winners.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: The money, the big money, the billions of Wall Street have just been told, you guys better rotate with us.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: And if you don't rotate with them, you're going to be standing on the wrong side of a river of cash.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: So why is this happening right now?
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Why is this so time sensitive?
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, first, this is the big one.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Semiconductors are running out of gas.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: The AI chip trade has been the hottest trade in the entire market for like two and a half years.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: There's a problem with the trade that everybody passes into.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Eventually, everyone who wants to buy it has already bought it, and expectations get so high that reality can't keep up.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: So Wall Street analysts have been upgrading all their estimates for what the semiconductor companies are going to do quarter after quarter.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: And those upgrades, what Wall Street calls earnings revisions, they've hit historical highs.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: And it means expectations at the absolute freaking ceiling.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And when expectations are at the ceiling, the only direction they can go and it's down.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: So you can have amazing reports, but you could still disappoint.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: Not because the company's about, not because AI is over, but because the bar is now so impossibly high that even a great quarter looks like a disappointment.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then number two, oil prices have dropped.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: What is that gonna do with it?
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Everything.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: When oil prices fall, inflation pressures fall.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: When inflation pressures fall, interest rate expectations come down.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: You with me so far?
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Let me know in the comments.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And when rate expectations come down, money starts flowing into the beaten-down sectors that got crushed by high rates.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Biotech, consumer companies, transports, banks, precisely the stuff that I've been buying the last couple of weeks and been telling you about, and certainly our students see my watch list every week.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's a domino chain.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Oil falls, rates ease, the broadening accelerates, and then numero thresh is the Fed share.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed share has gone a little bit softer.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Remember Kevin Walsh, the scary, the frightening man?
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, last week at a central bank conference in Europe, he said inflation risks have come down.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, believe it or not, people are gonna believe it because it's gonna get repeated a lot.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: So it's a shift from we're gonna get really, really hard on you guys.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: And then the jobs data came in.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Only 57,000 jobs were created in June in the US.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's weak.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's pathetic.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And weak jobs data means less rate hikes.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: So he even added more emphasis on the employment side, saying we have a dual mandate and we have to deliver on both.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: So you got the semiconductor trade maxed out, oil dropping, the Fed becoming a little softer, three dominoes falling in the same direction, and they're all pushing money away from the old winners and towards this broadening.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: So here's what's happening in your portfolio right now.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I know this because I have seen thousands and thousands of investors' portfolios, uh, because we taught like 26,000 people or something so far.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: You probably bought NVIDIA.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe you bought it early, maybe you bought it late, you watched it run, you felt like a genius, your account was up 40, 50, 100%, maybe more.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: You screenshotted it, right?
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: You told your friends, didn't you?
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: It was lovely, wasn't it?
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you told your spouse, look what I did, how great I am.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: And now it's down 80% from its highs.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's the best case if you were in semis.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia the king is down about 18%.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: But Microsoft is down about 30%.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: And you own Microsoft because you undoubtedly earn an index fund either directly or through your 401k or something.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: And some of the stocks people thought were the safest bets in the entire market are down double digits now.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what you didn't say out loud because you didn't want to admit it.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: I don't really have a plan.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know when to sell.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just hoping.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Hoping isn't a strategy.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Hoping is how you watch a 100% gain turn into a 50% gain, 20% gain, and eventually a red number.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: Hoping is how you watch stocks slowly bleed for months and you do nothing because keys keep telling us, ah, it's going to come back, right?
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Does that resonate?
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Have you done that before?
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna be honest, put it in the comments and just say, um, been there, done that, or guilty.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and I've literally watched this happen a thousand times, easily.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Stocks then went up a thousand percent.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: Most people still lost money on them, not because they picked the wrong stock, they had no exit plan.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: Life-changing gains appeared on their screen, they froze and they didn't know when to take profits, maybe they're scared about taxes or whatever, and then the market rotated, just like it's rotating right now, and those gains evaporated.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: If you've ever seen gains evaporate away, listen to this.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: Every institution, every hedge fund, every trading desk on the planet has a selling ball, mechanical, emotionless.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: They decided before they bought when they were gonna sell it.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: When a position hits a certain loss, they cut it.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: When it hits a certain profit, they also take some off.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: There's no hoping, there's no praying, there's just a plan.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: And they've done this for 50 years plus, but they've never shared the bloody rules with you.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna give you the rules.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Free, live on Saturday.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: Go to when2.org.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: When2.org, grab yourself a free ticket.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: I've run the session once before.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: 17,000 of you signed up, and thousands of you couldn't get into the room.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm running this one more time this year.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: There won't be a replay.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Don't ask for one.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't show up for these things, it isn't that important to you, you're not gonna learn, you're not in the right frame of mind yet, which is fine, it's okay.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: Watch the rest of this video.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: But if you're serious and you just don't want to repeat this ever again, giving back the gains to the buggers on Wall Street, go to wintercell.org.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Links in the description.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, now let's go deep on this because this is the bit that's gonna change how you think about your portfolio.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of you are watching this, you know, you're in Nvidia, you're in AMD, you're in Broadcom, Micron, ASML, or maybe you own the index fund, SMH or something.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe your entire portfolio is basically a bet on AI chips.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Many portfolios are.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: So I need you to hear what I'm about to say.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Don't be defensive.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: Just look at the data.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Wall Street's top strategist drew a comparison that should make every semiconductor investor sit up and pay attention.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: You compared the current semiconductor trade, this one here, to silver stocks from earlier this year.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: Remember the beautiful silver rally?
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we made a lot of money on that.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: But a lot of people lost money on that, regardless.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you remember what happened to silver, it went parabolic, literally straight up.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone's used euphoric, right?
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: YouTube was full of silver videos, and then it crashed.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: It lost a third of its value.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: And this guy, this strategist, with all the data in the world, he's saying semis look like that trade right now.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: And here's why.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Both silver stocks and semiconductors had parabolic moves, meaning they went straight up with barely any pullbacks.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Sort of like a rubber band, right?
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: You can stretch it and stretch it and stretch it, and eventually someone flicks it and it snaps hard and it hits pretty hard and hits you in the face.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: And both of these are what Wall Street calls commodity-like, meaning the underlying product, whether it's silver or computer chips, has got massive supply and demand swings.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: When the demand is hot, prices go to the moon.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: When supply catches up or demand cools a little bit, prices crash.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's the nature of commodity markets.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: White swings, boom and bust.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this comparison started in early June.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: And the analog, the pattern, appears to be playing out.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: So the strategist's analysis suggests the semiconductor correction likely has further to go.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: And the part of the semiconductor complex that's most of risk is what?
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: Memory chips.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Companies like Micron.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Because memory is the most commodity-like part of the whole chip world.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: The prices swing the wildest.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: But, and this is crucial, this does not mean the AI story is over.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's not the end of the cycle, it's a rotation.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: Within this leadership cycle, there'll be winners that rotate.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's how this works.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me tell you what really added feel to this fire because this one didn't get enough attention.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: Meta, Facebook, they announced that they would be selling excess compute capacity to outside customers.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: Let me translate Zuckerberg's speech into real English.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: Meta has been spending billions of dollars building AI data centers, buying NVIDIA chips by the truckload, building infrastructure at scale that would make most countries jealous.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: And now they're saying we kind of build too much.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: We have extra.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Whoops.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Does anybody want some?
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that signal?
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: If one of the biggest AI spenders on the planet is selling off his access capacity, what does that tell you about the future of AI chip buying?
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: It tells you that the rate of growth in chip spending may be peaking.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: Not that spending is going to stop, but the rate of increase is slowing down a little bit.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: And in the stock market, the rate of change matters more than the absolute level.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: A company can still be spending billions, but if it's spending less than what Wall Street expected, the chip suppliers get punished.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: And there's this thing that Wall Street tracks, and they call it the high capex to sales factor, fancy language.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: It basically measures our stocks being rewarded for spending a ton of money on things like AI infrastructure.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: And for over a year, that factor went straight up.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: The market was rewarding companies for spending.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: The more you spend on AI, the higher your stock went.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now that factor is rolling over, starting to consolidate, which means the market may no longer give you a gold star just for being a massive AI spender.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: They want to see returns on that spending.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the part most people are going to miss.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm sorry this is a little bit lengthy, but this is really, really important.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: And this is where it gets, I think, exciting and interesting.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: And let me know if there's landing for you, just put landing in the comments.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: The money leaving semiconductors doesn't disappear.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to go somewhere.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: And a big chunk of it is flowing into what the market calls hyperscalers.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: Think Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now I know what you're thinking.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: Wait, you just said Microsoft is down 30%.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: You just said these stocks have been underperforming.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: Why would I buy them now?
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's exactly the point.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: The hyperscalers have already gone through their period of pain.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: They've had their correction.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft's down 30%, Meta's down, Google's down, Amazon's struggling.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: The pain's already happened.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's in the past.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: And what the clever Morgan Stanley strategist says is that hyperscaler stocks have already discounted the worst-case scenario in AI spending.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: They've already priced in the fear.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: The underperformance is basically done.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the semiconductor stocks are just starting their correction.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: They're where the hyperscalers were some months ago.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: The pain has not played out yet for semis.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got this rotation happening within the AI trade itself, from the companies that make the chips to the companies that buy and use the chips.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: So why does this make sense?
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: Because the strategist gives three reasons for this, if I remember correctly.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: One, the hyperscalers have massive core businesses that make money, regardless, right?
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Google has search and advertising, not going to go away.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Amazon has e-commerce and cloud.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: People are still buying stuff.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft has Office and Enterprise software.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Every company on earth uses it.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: These are not one-trick AI pennies.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: They have real diversified businesses that generate absurd amounts of cash.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: And then secondly, they're positioned for the next phase of AI.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Not just the infrastructure, the building phase, but the application phase, the agentic stuff, the actual software that uses AI to do stuff for people in businesses.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: The hyperscalers are not just building the roads, they're building the cars that drive on them.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: And then third, and this is the one that no one really talks about, they have a massive cost-cutting lever.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: These companies went on a hiring bench.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: They're bloated up.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: And if the market gets tough, they could just cut tens of thousands of jobs slash billions in costs almost overnight.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: Very unfair, but it's true.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a profit margin tailwind that the semiconductor companies don't have.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: So the first degradation in the broadening is actually within tech.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: And you guys are all own tech stocks, right?
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: So this really matters to you.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: From chip suppliers to the hyperscalers, from the picks and shovels to the people who use the picks and shovels.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now, let me show you where the money goes outside of tech, because again, the broadening doesn't stop here.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Morgan Stanley lays out three specific sectors outside of tech where the broadening money is flowing.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I completely agree with them on this because if you had access to have access to my Sunday watch list every week, it's just for coaching students because we're not a tip service.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: We teach you and educate you, and the list is there so you can check whether you would have found these yourself and whether you agree with me and check your learning.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: There are three traits here.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: One, consumer discretionary.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: Consumer discretionary is stuff that people want to buy but don't need electronics, cars, home improvements, clothing, brands, furniture.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: You could survive without it, but you buy it anyway because you want it.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: And what happened since COVID is that people have been spending money on experiences, restaurants, travel concerts, you know, Taylor Swift, that sort of thing, vacations, services.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: But that spending is shifting again.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: People have done the uh the revenge traveling.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I clearly haven't, but other people have.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not done yet.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um they've been to the concerts, and now their spending is moving back towards goods.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: They're upgrading their kitchens, they're buying new electronics.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we're seeing that in the actual data.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: And Wall Street is seeing it too, and they're moving their money into these stocks, which is precisely what I've been doing.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: And second, and this is really sexy as hell, it's called transport.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it's what it sounds like.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: Railroads, shipping companies, and so on.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: And we were looking at railroad companies yesterday.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: And here is why it matters: transport is a leading indicator of actually the economy.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: When transport companies do well, they're shipping more stuff, right?
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: They're flying more passengers, they're hauling more freight.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: It means the real economy is actually growing.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: So it tells you something important.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: The economy is a little healthier than people actually think.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: And the data actually backs this up.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: Money is pouring into transport stocks.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: Analysts are raising their estimates.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they're pumping the stocks they already own.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, I don't mean that.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: That was a slip of the tongue, but you know what I mean.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: And they also benefit from oil.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: Transport companies burn massive amounts of fuel.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: So when oil prices drop, their margins improve, making the same income, sorry, the same revenue, but the costs are now cheaper, so they're making more money.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then three, and this is the one I'm really excited about, it's biotech.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it's the one that surprises most retail investors because biotech sounds risky, it sounds complicated, drug makers, gene therapy trials, oh my god, must be gambling.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what the data actually shows.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: Biotech is one of the most interest rate sensitive areas of the stock market.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: So historically, biotech has delivered nearly a 20% annualized return when interest rates were going down.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: 20% a year.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: Not a type, I'm not telling you it's a promise, it's just past data.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Because biotech companies are typically these sort of long-duration assets.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: They're investing money today in drugs that won't generate profits for 5, 10, maybe even 15 years.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: So when rates are high, the market puts very little value on those future profits, think of it like inflation.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: So if there is like a 10% rate of inflation and someone says to you, Do you want$100 today or do you want$100 in 10 years?
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna do?
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna take the$100 today.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: So you're gonna put it into something that's making money now rather than something that's making money in 10 years.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: But when interest rates go to zero,$100 now and$100 in 10 years is basically the same thing.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: So the future dollars are worth more.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's essentially what it's all about.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: And Wall Street is saying that we think, or everyone thinks, of the Fed is too hawkish.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: They believe that the Fed will actually cut rates.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: And there's something else going on in biotech, which is also why we've been in biotech for a little while.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's the big companies, a lot of the pharma companies, their drugs are losing their pattern protection, which means other people can make them for cheap somewhere else and sell them as a generic.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_00: So what do they do?
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: What's the fastest way to get some new drugs on your on your list that are protected?
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: You buy smaller biotech companies who have good pipelines.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: Because when you're a massive company, it's very hard to do something new.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: So they just outsource the research and the risk and then they buy it in through MA, right?
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: Mergers and acquisitions.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got falling rates, we've got big pharma coming in with checkbooks, you know, they all got COVID money lying around.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: So I've given you just the explanation for the rotational semis, the hyperscaler opportunity, and it's still quite early on that one, by the way.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: The three broadening traits, that's the what.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me give you the uh the so what, a framework you can use not just today, but for the rest of this year.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: And if you really, really want to know, like when's the time to sell stuff, because I can tell you this valley, this market, at some point it's going to top off, not just in semis, but in lots of stuff.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: So join us at when to sell.org on Saturday Live.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: But write down these three signals first.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: And if all of these are green, the broadening is in full swing.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: If any of them flip red, you might need to reassess.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: First signal is our semiconductors underperforming.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's the engine of the broadening.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: As long as semiconductor stocks are losing strength compared to the rest of the market, you see where the rotation is going.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: Money is leaving semis, it's going into other sectors, figure out where it's going, and money is there to be made.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_00: Signal two is this oil price, is the oil price sort of stable or even falling?
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: Because falling oil prices is uh fuel for the broadening, right?
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: See what I did there?
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: It helps to basically lower interest rates.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then signal number three, are we seeing earnings revisions?
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: So an expectation of better profits in more and more sectors.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: If all the upgrades are just in semiconductor stocks, you know, you have that narrow market we've been in, the upgrades are spreading to discretionary, to transport, to financial.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm liking banks at the moment, for example.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: So biotech doesn't mean you should buy them, but you might want to learn why I like them.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: And by doing this, that's how I spotted, you know, expensify, ticker symbol EX, FY, or T E N B.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: Have a look at those charts.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Before the move up, right?
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: It wasn't guessing randomly, no, it was a systematic process.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: And if you'll allow me, I'll zoom out for a second, because I don't really think this is a short-term trade for the lunatic traders.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: The strategist's view at Morgan Stanley is that the economy has entered a new phase.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: We had in the previous phase, manufacturing got hit, housing got hit, tech laid off people.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: And now that move is going into a new phase, more of an economic expansion, and then predictable things happen.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: Profits growth comes in better than expected.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: Because during the tough times, we've just come out of that, the companies cut costs, they're laid off employees, they're going to leaner.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, revenue is coming back.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: And those leaner, more efficient companies, when they have rising revenues, less costs, profits explode.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: And Wall Street loves this.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: They're lovely, people getting laid off, then they uh bastards.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so we're seeing the beaten-up stuff, the consumer companies, the transports, the industrials, the financials, the biotechs, where we're seeing these surprises to the upside.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the whole macro tailwind behind this whole story.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not a random rotation.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: So what happens at this stage of the economic cycle?
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I've had to move because my battery just died as I was trying to explain this.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: So let's bring this home.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_00: The broadening means your old winners are becoming your next losers.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: Very simple.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: Literally right now in real time.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: And the cost of not knowing when to sell just went through the roof.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't have to be like that.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna run this free training for you guys.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_00: It's completely free.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna walk through the exact selling rules that my Wall Street mentors taught me.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: The rules that I use, the rules institutions have used for 50 years.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: So whether you're a long-term investor, whether you're a momentum trader, the system is actually very, very similar.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: So go to when2.org, grab your free ticket, show up live, bring your questions, send the link to your friends because everybody needs to know this.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: The more people we send this to, post it on social media, the better it is.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: When2.org.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you're gonna do that right, share it in the comments down below.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_00: I truly appreciate it.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's the only thing I ask for.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll see you Saturday from somewhere fun and nice.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: So if you can guess where the hell I am, uh, you are a wizard.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, very unlikely, I think, from this.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I wish you great success.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I genuinely hope to see you there on Saturday so you can elevate your skill levels so we don't see the pain over the next six months, but the gains over the next six months.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's the plan.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: All the best.