Latest / Best of LinkedIn: Strategy, M&A & Investments / Best of LinkedIn: SuperReturn International 2026
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 0: provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus based on the most relevant LinkedIn posts about Super Return International, twenty-twenty six.
- 0:07Speaker 0: Frenness supports PE backed manufacturers with a market intelligence needed to unlock revenue from idle production capacity.
- 0:15Speaker 0: you can find more info in description
- 0:17Speaker 1: right.
- 0:17Speaker 1: so welcome to The Deep Dive everyone.
- 0:19Speaker 0: yeah thanks for joining us.
- 0:20Speaker 0: I want you imagine just for second sitting at room with
- 0:24Speaker 1: fifty
- 0:25Speaker 0: trillion dollars purchasing power.
- 0:27Speaker 1: That is, I mean that's just a mind-boggling amount of money.
- 0:30Speaker 0: It is right but the crazy part is The prevailing mood in this room isn't excitement.
- 0:34Speaker 0: it's well its exhaustion.
- 0:36Speaker 1: Yeah totally.
- 0:37Speaker 0: Today we're taking you inside Superreturn.
- 0:39Speaker 0: twenty twenty six In Berlin And were looking at an industry built on buying Scaling and selling That has suddenly realized Its sitting On A mountain Of assets it basically Can't get rid of.
- 0:49Speaker 1: Exactly i mean it Is a staggering concentration of influence.
- 0:53Speaker 1: We are Looking At Roughly uh Six thousand Private capital decision makers gathered in one space, including over two thousand limited partners and three thousand general partners.
- 1:04Speaker 1: And Terrence Gaulman and Alexander Sienko reported from the floor that this group represents like he said about fifty trillion in assets under management.
- 1:12Speaker 1: That's
- 1:12Speaker 0: just the scale of.
- 1:13Speaker 0: that is wild!
- 1:15Speaker 1: Right, so our focus for you today is translating that unprecedented concentration of capital into actionable strategy like what does it mean for you?
- 1:23Speaker 0: Whether your an M&A private equity venture capital or consulting?
- 1:27Speaker 0: we want to examine what happens to the mechanics of this industry when story telling stops and then market demands actual proof.
- 1:35Speaker 1: Yeah...and I think Um, persistent unavoidable conversation on the floor over there.
- 1:42Speaker 0: Oh absolutely!
- 1:42Speaker 0: It wasn't about the next big disruptive tech was it?
- 1:45Speaker 1: No not at all...it was about fundamental math of the asset class specifically DPI distributed to paid-in capital.
- 1:52Speaker 0: Right, DPI because for the last decade GPs have basically walked into pitch meetings armed with these sky high IRRs right pointing to internal marks and theoretical valuations.
- 2:02Speaker 0: Yeah
- 2:02Speaker 1: look at our paper returns.
- 2:04Speaker 1: kind of thing
- 2:04Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 2:05Speaker 0: but The Mood in Berlin really suggested that LPs are.
- 2:09Speaker 0: well they're refusing to eat paper returns anymore.
- 2:11Speaker 1: yeah Enrico Reiki captured this sentiment on the ground pretty bluntly.
- 2:14Speaker 1: he literally said dpi is the new IRR.
- 2:18Speaker 0: Wow DPI is the new IRR.
- 2:20Speaker 1: Yeah, and look this isn't just some temporary shift in LP preferences right?
- 2:25Speaker 0: It's a
- 2:25Speaker 1: structural reaction to a historic liquidity logjam
- 2:29Speaker 0: rights.
- 2:30Speaker 1: Arsene Klokovkin shared Some data pointing out that private equity has returned under fifteen percent of net asset value for four consecutive years.
- 2:39Speaker 0: Okay Let's just pause on that for a second because to put that in perspective For you listening if you are an LP The vast majority your capital has been locked into holding patterned for half a decade
- 2:48Speaker 1: yeah Five years with
- 2:49Speaker 0: very little cash flowing back to you.
- 2:51Speaker 0: To actually fund your next allocation cycle
- 2:53Speaker 1: exactly.
- 2:53Speaker 1: it's totally stuck.
- 2:55Speaker 1: and Venera man Quantified that bottleneck with a number that should give literally everyone pause.
- 3:01Speaker 0: Oh, yeah the thirty three thousand number.
- 3:03Speaker 1: right there are roughly Thirty-three thousand unsold portfolio companies sitting on the books right now.
- 3:08Speaker 0: thirty-three Thousand I mean.
- 3:10Speaker 0: when you understand The mechanics of how the bid ask spread widened over the last few years You really see why.
- 3:16Speaker 0: LPs or just fatigued.
- 3:18Speaker 1: Yeah, you have GPs anchored to these like twenty-twenty one valuations because nobody wants To take a markdown.
- 3:24Speaker 1: obviously
- 3:24Speaker 0: right they don't want to admit the value went down
- 3:26Speaker 1: exactly.
- 3:27Speaker 1: and on The flip side You have buyers flat out refusing to pay those multiples in A higher interest rate environment.
- 3:34Speaker 1: so the results are just completely frozen market which
- 3:36Speaker 0: really forces our reckoning On how value is actually created right?
- 3:40Speaker 1: Oh totally Like
- 3:41Speaker 0: Steven Saunders noted that LPs Want receipts not stories.
- 3:44Speaker 1: I love that quote, receipts not stories.
- 3:47Speaker 1: It's
- 3:47Speaker 0: perfect and the critical mechanism here as Diana Vlasova pointed out is that the era of relying on cheap leverage in you know multiple expansion-that's over!
- 3:58Speaker 1: it's dead.
- 3:58Speaker 1: i mean...in the twenty tens?
- 4:00Speaker 1: You could buy a company for ten times earnings just hold onto it and sell it for fifteen times simply because the broader market went up
- 4:06Speaker 0: A rising tide hiding a lot operational sins basically
- 4:09Speaker 1: Exactly now If you want to sell an asset and generate that DPI, You have to prove actual bottom line operational execution.
- 4:18Speaker 0: Right?
- 4:19Speaker 0: I always look at this whole IRR versus DPI debate like um... Like over heated real estate market.
- 4:25Speaker 1: That's a good way of looking it.
- 4:26Speaker 1: Yeah!
- 4:27Speaker 0: Pointing your IRR right now is kind of bragging about the zestimate in house.
- 4:31Speaker 0: It feels great say oh my property doubled value on paper But if putted on the market literally no one bids on
- 4:38Speaker 1: it.
- 4:38Speaker 1: Nobody shows up for open house.
- 4:40Speaker 0: Exactly That paper wealth doesn't pay your bills.
- 4:44Speaker 0: LPs have pension obligations, right?
- 4:46Speaker 0: They can't pay retirees with a GP's internal valuation spreadsheet...
- 4:50Speaker 1: Absolutely cannot!
- 4:51Speaker 1: Yeah that is the practical reality driving the entire secondary market Right now.
- 4:56Speaker 1: because if traditional exits you know IPOs or strategic acquisitions If those are stalled for those thirty three thousand companies GPs have to find alternative levers To manufacture liquidity
- 5:07Speaker 0: Right, which brings us to the explosion of liquidity solutions.
- 5:11Speaker 0: Emi Cicchini highlighted how GP-led secondaries and continuation funds have like moved from The Fringe To The Absolute Center Of The Strategy.
- 5:19Speaker 0: Now Yeah
- 5:19Speaker 1: there are everywhere.
- 5:21Speaker 0: But I've gotta say i'm genuinely skeptical about the underlying mechanics here.
- 5:24Speaker 1: Oh really?
- 5:24Speaker 1: How come?
- 5:25Speaker 0: Well LPs Are Screaming For Liquidity And The Industry's Response Is To Create Continuation Vehicles.
- 5:33Speaker 0: Are these genuinely solving the exit problem?
- 5:35Speaker 0: or are we looking at a highly sophisticated like fifty trillion dollar shell game?
- 5:40Speaker 1: Shell Game, wow.
- 5:41Speaker 0: Yeah where GP basically moves an asset from their fund three to there newly created continuation fun charges and new set of fees And then claims they've generated liquidity
- 5:52Speaker 1: look I hear that skepticism.
- 5:53Speaker 1: often it's a massive point of friction for LPs but The math does actually support the mechanism when it's used correctly.
- 6:00Speaker 1: Okay,
- 6:01Speaker 0: assuming its use correct.
- 6:02Speaker 0: right
- 6:02Speaker 1: if a GP holds high performing high conviction asset forcing assail into a depressed M&A market just to satisfy an arbitrary timeline that destroys value for the LP That's
- 6:13Speaker 0: fair.
- 6:13Speaker 0: you don't want to fire sale.
- 6:15Speaker 1: exactly.
- 6:16Speaker 1: so well structured continuation fund provides an option.
- 6:19Speaker 1: LPs who desperately need cash can take the liquidity and get out while LPs who want to ride the upside can roll their equity over.
- 6:28Speaker 1: Right,
- 6:28Speaker 0: so it's a tool for alignment.
- 6:30Speaker 1: Provided that GP isn't just using into high-to-zombie asset of course...
- 6:33Speaker 0: Which definitely happens!
- 6:34Speaker 0: Oh
- 6:35Speaker 1: sure but this year volume of capital flowing here is just undeniable.
- 6:39Speaker 1: Joe Colgan Bevan projected they credit secondaries alone could hit eighty billion dollars by twenty thirty
- 6:45Speaker 0: billion.
- 6:46Speaker 0: Wow, which naturally brings us to the credit side
- 7:08Speaker 1: of
- 7:13Speaker 0: Right.
- 7:14Speaker 0: But this dispersion idea means the gap between top quartile managers and bottom quartile manager is widening dramatically.
- 7:22Speaker 1: Yes, Janice Seekins actually issued a direct warning to the attendees.
- 7:28Speaker 1: he said underwriting quality matters significantly more than the overarching growth story right now.
- 7:34Speaker 0: And I'm really curious how that dispersion actually plays out in these portfolios like when The Tide Goes Out.
- 7:39Speaker 0: What exposes a bad underwriter?
- 7:43Speaker 1: deep concerns around retail exposure, redemptions and specifically software linked credit risk.
- 7:49Speaker 0: Oh the software loans?
- 7:50Speaker 0: Yeah if you let money to a sauce company based on some really aggressive recurring revenue multiple...and that multiple suddenly compresses
- 7:58Speaker 1: your loan-to-value ratio looks very very precarious
- 8:01Speaker 0: exactly!
- 8:02Speaker 0: And that is precisely the mechanism driving all this anxiety right.
- 8:05Speaker 0: it forces us to look really closely at the underlying sectors
- 8:11Speaker 1: because since GPs can't just rely on financial engineering anymore and leverage is crazy expensive, they are banking heavily on software in AI.
- 8:20Speaker 0: Right!
- 8:20Speaker 0: They need those sectors to drive the operational efficiency required to justify these high valuations.
- 8:25Speaker 0: But
- 8:25Speaker 1: both sectors got a pretty severe reality check in Berlin...
- 8:28Speaker 0: ...they really did.
- 8:30Speaker 0: The Software Multiple's data is sobering.
- 8:32Speaker 0: honestly Alexander Smith cited numbers from CNBC showing that software multiples fell nine percent in the US and four percent in Europe, just the first quarter.
- 8:41Speaker 1: Just Q-one?
- 8:42Speaker 1: That's huge!
- 8:43Speaker 0: It is...and this ignited a massive debate on the floor about whether we are experiencing
- 8:50Speaker 1: the spokolips.
- 8:50Speaker 1: Yeah, Orlando Bravo made headlines by declaring that this SAS apocalypse is over but Pierce Casey openly questioned that optimism
- 8:57Speaker 0: because the tension here stems from a fundamental shift in what investors actually value now.
- 9:01Speaker 0: right
- 9:02Speaker 1: for years simply having software exposure was enough.
- 9:05Speaker 1: like recurring revenue models were viewed as entirely bulletproof.
- 9:08Speaker 0: just buy sauce and you're good
- 9:09Speaker 1: exactly.
- 9:10Speaker 1: But now the diligence process is really interrogating software quality.
- 9:14Speaker 1: Like, Is the product actually sticky?
- 9:17Speaker 1: Or is it just a nice to have tool that a CFO's going to cut to save margins?
- 9:21Speaker 0: right?
- 9:21Speaker 0: do they have a defensible AI enabled infrastructure?
- 9:25Speaker 0: or is their core feature about to be completely commoditized by some open source model
- 9:29Speaker 1: which perfectly pitted sus to the conversation because I was inescapable at super return?
- 9:35Speaker 0: Oh i'm sure It wasn't every single pitch deck
- 9:37Speaker 1: but The tone Was Really Different Than A year ago.
- 9:40Speaker 1: Dr.
- 9:40Speaker 1: Stefan Samble noted that the industry has officially moved past the honeymoon phase of experimentation, now they are demanding actual economics.
- 9:49Speaker 0: Right.
- 9:49Speaker 0: The question isn't whether AI is like cool or flashy.
- 9:53Speaker 0: It's whether it creates a measurable EBITDA impact for the portfolio company
- 9:58Speaker 1: And the data on that front is surprisingly bleak.
- 10:00Speaker 1: Yeah
- 10:01Speaker 0: this was crazy to me.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Thomas Dobmeier highlighted his statistic That should honestly reframe how every GP approaches tech integration.
- 10:09Speaker 1: Roughly, ninety-four percent of PE portfolio companies are still seeing only marginal gains from AI.
- 10:14Speaker 0: I have to just pause on that.
- 10:15Speaker 0: Ninety four percent are seeing marginal gains.
- 10:18Speaker 0: Yeah,
- 10:18Speaker 1: ninety four percent.
- 10:19Speaker 0: In an environment where every single pitch deck claims AIs revolutionizing their operations How is the actual yield that
- 10:26Speaker 1: low?
- 10:26Speaker 1: Well Emily Cook diagnosed a friction point perfectly.
- 10:29Speaker 1: She reminded The Room.
- 10:30Speaker 1: about seventy percent of Ai's real value doesn't actually come through models themselves.
- 10:34Speaker 1: Oh
- 10:34Speaker 0: right
- 10:34Speaker 1: It comes people workflows and upscaling.
- 10:37Speaker 0: Yeah, because technology is easy to buy right?
- 10:40Speaker 0: But behavioral change is incredibly difficult to manage.
- 10:44Speaker 0: GPs are finally realizing that AI Is not just some plug-and play license you install To magically expand your margins.
- 10:50Speaker 1: No none at all.
- 10:51Speaker 0: I always think of enterprise AI integration like Buying a state-of the art hyper advanced robotic forklift For really old legacy warehouse.
- 11:02Speaker 1: Okay i like where this going
- 11:03Speaker 0: Right.
- 11:03Speaker 0: So the forklift itself is a marvel of engineering, but it's completely useless and maybe even massive hazard if you don't fundamentally reorganize the warehouse.
- 11:13Speaker 1: Yeah she was going to crash into things.
- 11:15Speaker 1: Exactly!
- 11:15Speaker 0: You have to widen the aisles reinforce flooring change how inventory is barcode scanned And most importantly retrain work force that has been doing thing manually for twenty years.
- 11:25Speaker 1: The friction isn't technology?
- 11:27Speaker 0: No The friction is tearing down and rebuilding the entire operational workflow to accommodate that technology.
- 11:33Speaker 0: And doing that requires upfront capital, which hurts your short-term margins...
- 11:37Speaker 1: Which creates a direct conflict with an LP base that's demanding immediate DPI.
- 11:43Speaker 1: That structural conflict Is at the absolute heart of current operational reset.
- 11:49Speaker 1: LPs are scrutinizing GPs on this exact timeline.
- 11:53Speaker 1: They want to know if the AI integration is reducing customer acquisition costs or improving retention today.
- 11:59Speaker 1: Not in five years.
- 12:00Speaker 0: Right, AI has to function as a core operating capability not just some glossy marketing layer To help raise the next fund.
- 12:07Speaker 1: and that leads to the next big theme.
- 12:09Speaker 1: because if The bar for generating returns requires fundamentally rewriting of portfolio companies operational DNA Raising capital to execute that strategy must be brutally difficult.
- 12:20Speaker 1: Oh
- 12:20Speaker 0: brutally.
- 12:20Speaker 0: And the sources from super return confirm a sharply bifurcated fundraising environment.
- 12:25Speaker 0: global geopolitics is no longer Just a backdrop.
- 12:27Speaker 0: you know It is actively dictating where the capital flows.
- 12:30Speaker 1: Yeah, for generalist mid-market funds.
- 12:32Speaker 1: The environment is incredibly unforgiving right now.
- 12:35Speaker 1: if you walk into an LP meeting without a highly specific totally defensible edge You leave empty handed
- 12:40Speaker 0: yeah?
- 12:40Speaker 0: You're not getting a check
- 12:41Speaker 1: but specialist funds are experiencing A very different reality.
- 12:47Speaker 1: Dr.. Lucas Klipper pointed out that Gaius Capital reached around eighty percent of its hard cap For their debut fund within just twelve months.
- 12:54Speaker 0: Eighty percent in a year for D.D Fund.
- 12:56Speaker 1: Right capital's available.
- 12:58Speaker 1: But conviction requires differentiation.
- 13:00Speaker 0: And Thomas Muccia and Borclara Mendez-McConan articulated a really profound shift in how that differentiation is defined, they said.
- 13:08Speaker 0: geopolitics are no longer risk factor relegated to the appendix of a pitch deck.
- 13:13Speaker 0: Geopolitics as investment thesis?
- 13:15Speaker 0: Yes!
- 13:16Speaker 1: We're literally watching de-globalization transition from an academic theory into hard capital allocation.
- 13:22Speaker 0: It's happening real time.
- 13:24Speaker 1: Irina Potobnea observed this physical migration.
- 13:28Speaker 1: It is moving away from asset-like software multiples and pouring into heavy physical resilience, things like defense tech to method manufacturing critical minerals in power grids.
- 13:38Speaker 0: And this transition is just fascinating.
- 13:39Speaker 0: form a structural standpoint.
- 13:41Speaker 0: I mean think about the scene outside the venue.
- 13:43Speaker 0: in Berlin.
- 13:43Speaker 0: there were protests concerning how pension funds and public welfare money are flowing into capital markets.
- 13:49Speaker 0: But then inside the venue, the discussion focused heavily on how private capital is stepping into finance defense tech energy grids and NATO initiatives.
- 13:58Speaker 0: And just to be clear for you listening we're not taking any stance in politics here.
- 14:03Speaker 0: We want to impartially report what was discussed.
- 14:05Speaker 1: Absolutely!
- 14:06Speaker 1: We are looking at raw mechanics.
- 14:07Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 14:08Speaker 0: The mechanics are compelling.
- 14:10Speaker 0: Private capital is being pulled into sectors that have historically been the exclusive domain of public policy and national security
- 14:17Speaker 1: Which forces a really difficult question about the capabilities of the current GP talent
- 14:22Speaker 0: pool.
- 14:22Speaker 0: I totally agree because The underwriting math Is completely different.
- 14:25Speaker 1: Oh, hundred percent
- 14:26Speaker 0: If A private equity firm has spent the last fifteen years Mastering...the B to B sauce playbook, optimizing custom requisition costs, analyzing churn, modeling recurring revenue from thousands of clients.
- 14:40Speaker 0: How do they pivot to underwriting a defense contractor?
- 14:43Speaker 1: It's a completely different world.
- 14:45Speaker 1: Defense tech relies on a monopsony—a single buyer in the form
- 14:54Speaker 0: agonizingly slow procurement cycles, massive regulatory hurdles?
- 14:58Speaker 0: Does the traditional PE talent pool actually possess the operational capability to manage national security
- 15:06Speaker 0: assets?".
- 15:07Speaker 1: That might be a defining question for next decade of capital allocation.
- 15:10Speaker 1: And it requires us to look at the human reality of who is sitting at the decision-making table.
- 15:15Speaker 1: A
- 15:15Speaker 0: human element, yeah
- 15:16Speaker 1: Because when the industry pivots two physical grids and national resilience You need cognitive diversity To evaluate those entirely new risks.
- 15:24Speaker 0: Right
- 15:25Speaker 1: But Julia Frey highlighted a persistent gap here.
- 15:29Speaker 1: She noted that roughly only five percent Of the attendees in The Room At Superreturn were women.
- 15:33Speaker 0: Five percent.
- 15:34Speaker 0: That was stark metric.
- 15:35Speaker 0: Her core
- 15:36Speaker 1: question Was blunt who actually holds the power to allocate capital.
- 15:39Speaker 0: Yeah, especially when contrasted with the high-profile women's private equity event which Fay Margo noted featured Malala Yusufsai.
- 15:47Speaker 0: The dialogue there pushed way past just symbolic representation.
- 15:51Speaker 0: It focused on the actual mechanics of getting women into investment committees and leadership roles where capital deployment is finalized.
- 15:59Speaker 0: The industry talks a big game about diversity but execution power remains heavily concentrated.
- 16:07Speaker 1: The way that power organizes itself, however is evolving rapidly.
- 16:11Speaker 1: We saw this in how super return function not just as a networking event but has an active operating platform for the industry.
- 16:18Speaker 0: Yeah!
- 16:18Speaker 0: This was really cool to see...the demand for efficiency we've talked about from DPI to AI workflows.
- 16:23Speaker 0: it extended directly to mechanics of the conference.
- 16:26Speaker 1: Yeah, the structural changes to deal-making were striking.
- 16:29Speaker 1: It wasn't just about swapping business cards in crowded hallways or sitting through theoretical panels.
- 16:34Speaker 0: Right!
- 16:35Speaker 0: Tim Jadzims and Mario Palladini highlighted the introduction of Tiny Knee Space...
- 16:40Speaker 1: The meeting pods right?
- 16:41Speaker 0: Exactly there were around sixty modular meeting pods installed essentially turning the event floor into a practical back-to-back deal flow engine.
- 16:50Speaker 0: it was physical infrastructure designed specifically for transactional efficiency
- 16:54Speaker 1: And even the informal networking adapted to this efficiency mandate.
- 16:59Speaker 1: Like instead of traditional evening cocktail hours where everyone just stands around drinking, ex-bionic max allocation and redial pine actually organized a morning run in the tear garden.
- 17:09Speaker 0: Swapping coffee for cardio.
- 17:10Speaker 0: I love that!
- 17:11Speaker 1: Over seventy attendees joined.
- 17:14Speaker 1: relationship building is becoming highly targeted and functional.
- 17:17Speaker 0: So bringing it all together, every data point we've explored today points to an industry shedding its excess.
- 17:23Speaker 0: Whether it's LPs demanding hard cash instead of paper returns the market-demanding proofs of AI actual economic impact or attendees optimizing how six thousand people negotiate in Berlin
- 17:34Speaker 1: The tolerance for fluff has basically evaporated
- 17:37Speaker 0: Completely...the narrative cycle is over.
- 17:39Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 17:40Speaker 1: The managers who survive this reset will be the ones to combine rigorous operational capability with measurable, resilient portfolio impact.
- 17:47Speaker 0: Exactly and as you the listener process all these threads that demand for liquidity they reality check on tech integration...the migration of capital toward physical infrastructure.
- 17:57Speaker 0: it leaves you a really profound question regarding tech sovereignty.
- 18:00Speaker 1: Oh!
- 18:01Speaker 1: This is big one.
- 18:02Speaker 0: We've seen how fifty trillion dollars of private capital is increasingly being drafted to fund areas formerly dominated by the state like defense, energy grids and deep
- 18:13Speaker 1: tech.
- 18:15Speaker 0: So if private markets become the primary financial engine for national security in critical infrastructure.
- 18:21Speaker 0: who ultimately holds a strategic reigns?
- 18:25Speaker 0: the GPs deploying the capital, or the governments regulating them?
- 18:29Speaker 1: That is the question.
- 18:30Speaker 1: It's a dynamic that will completely reshape how risk is calculated.
- 18:34Speaker 1: The lines between private market returns and public interest are blurring fast
- 18:39Speaker 0: And navigating that intersection will require entirely new playbooks.
- 18:42Speaker 0: Absolutely If you enjoyed this episode New episodes drop every two weeks.
- 18:46Speaker 0: Also check out our other editions on Private Equity Strategy & Consulting Venture Capital and M&A.
- 18:52Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening.
- 18:53Speaker 0: Yeah, thank you for joining us on this deep dive!
- 18:55Speaker 0: Remember to subscribe and we'll catch ya in the next one.