Latest / Kvetch & Release / CARNEY'S CANADA CORP: THE CEO PM TAKES OVER OTTAWA

Transcript

CARNEY'S CANADA CORP: THE CEO PM TAKES OVER OTTAWA · Kvetch & Release

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It is time for Litkey's Got a Take. Good morning, John.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: Good morning, Gene.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Hey, you know, John, there's a clear pattern emerging that
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Mark Carney isn't governing like a traditional prime minister. He's
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: more like a corporate CEO. So I was reading Justin
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Ling's article in The Star describing Carney running a tight
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: shop where he acts like an old school executive saying,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Expecting corporate rigor, setting strict deadlines, cutting off unprepared people.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So who actually holds sway in the inner circle? And
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: could this corporate style alienate his caucus or supporters?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: You know, Gene, I think that this is just his
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: central banker muscle memory kicking in. He knows how he
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: likes to run his shop. He's done it for quite
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: a number of years across multiple continents. And what we've
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: seen is Ottawa Power has shrunk to a tiny C-suite.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: His chief of staff runs the staff. He has a
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: newly created COO position that manages his schedule and public
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: appearances and his tone. He's got an economic advisor and
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: then a couple key ministers to deploy. But he has
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: cut political staff positions compared to the Trudeau era. And
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: we've heard from backbench MPs that they feel disaffected receiving
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: directives from HQ. Reports or staffers are actually blown away
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: by the sharp tone that the prime minister takes with
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: senior advisors and certain cabinet ministers. Ex-Trudeau cabinet ministers feel,
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: you know, maligned and pushed out. And there's countless liberal
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: MPs who have complained that they are unaware of his announcements,
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: his agreements, his travel, reducing their work as MPs to
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: photo ops and constituent work and voting. Now, that can
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: be argued as good or bad, but, you know, if
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: they're voicing concerns, they're upset about it. And there's reports
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: that he does get upset at caucus when they miss deadlines,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: and progressive liberals are lamenting a heavy pivot to industry.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: But his calculation is pretty clear, and it's just return
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: on investment. With Trump threatening trade, he understands that voters
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: care more about economic stability than caucus feelings.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Caucus feelings, I like that. Yesterday's news out of Alberta
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: was the Prime Minister, alongside Premier Daniela Smith, designating the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: $ 40 billion Pacific Link pipeline from Alberta to B.C., Canada's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: first project of natural interest under the Building Canada Act. Now,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Albertan Jason Kenney, haven't heard from him in a while,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: but he's calling this a total repudiation of Trudeau-era policies.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I have to agree with that. So how is this
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: all going to play out politically?
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: You know that Fort McMurray presser was a master class.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: He stood alongside Premier Smith and he showed that Carney's
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Canada Corp is about getting things actually done. Now we
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: can have disagreements about whether this will actually happen, but
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: this is a different process. And when he was asked
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: about federal taxpayer billions going into this, Carney snapped back
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: like the central banker he was and still is, quite frankly,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: saying Canadian taxpayers are going to make a lot of
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: money off of this pipeline. But he's reading the room.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Abacus data polling just came out showing 41% of Canadians
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: are putting oil and gas pipelines as the project they
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: want built first and fastest. That's well above housing at 30%.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: And public money is the only way to get that
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: shortcut to having these megaprojects actually built. So a traditional
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: politician would get defensive about subsidies or talks about environmental tradeoffs.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: But Carney's treating the federal balance sheet like a corporate
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: portfolio looking for a yield. And by using the major
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: projects office to fast-track approvals, if it actually does happen,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: and actively embracing the resource sector, it's not a surprise
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: to see former Premier Kenney calling this a total repudiation
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: of the Trudeau era. Carney is executing Alberta's dream project,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: quite frankly, under a C-suite liberal banner. He's almost out-consing
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: the conservatives.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You know, a couple of weeks ago, Carney dropped
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: immigration hints to, of all people, the New York Times,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: gave a landmark trade speech to the EU and their
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: parliament before Canadians even knew about it or the Canadian parliament.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: The guy uses YouTube videos. He rarely does one-on-one domestic interviews.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So is this strategic statesmanship or is he just treating
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: our domestic media and parliament sort of as an afterthought?
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Yet this is treating domestic accountability as an afterthought dropping
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: major policy shifts in the new york times puts canadian
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: news behind american paywalls addressing e u parliament demonstrates a
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: contempt for the domestic audience over a foreign audience even
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: if the viewership is bigger and i get that but
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: rarely appearing for question period utilizing these youtube videos is
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: just further evidence of what justin lin noted in his
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: column that carney disdains what he considers an inane process
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: process questions from the Ottawa Press Gallery. So he uses
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: corporate PR to speak over Canadian journalists, to speak directly
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: to markets, and he wants global executive statesmanship without facing
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: the tough cross-examination back home.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, Pierre Pauly have responded on social media saying
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: he supports the pipeline and credited Daniela Smith. But he
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: also said, and it's accurate, it took Carney 18 months
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: to just to put one project on the list while
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the others gather dust. I think Polyev has a point here.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Polyev is tapping into a massive vulnerability that Abacus
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: actually highlighted in their polling, and that specifically is that
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: permission is not patience. The same poll showed, I think,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: 60% of Canadians expect construction to be underway within a year.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: So when Polyev hits back hard, arguing that it took
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Carney nearly a year and a half to get a
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: single proposal on the national interest list, that resonates with people.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: But the Carney model is state-directed corporate capitalism using major
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: agencies like Build Canada Homes or the Major Projects Office
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: to do end-run-arounds the broken 350,000-person public service. Pauliev's model
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: is deregulation with the state getting out of the way
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: so private investors can invest. Carney wants the state acting
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: as the lead managing partner while also soliciting investment on
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: these multi-partner projects. Yeah.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Now, when and if this pipeline is completed and it
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: starts flowing, it could be like a million barrels of
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: oil a day. That's a lot. I'm just wondering, is
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Carney using energy exports as a real economic leverage against Washington?
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is macroeconomic hardball, Gene. Carney stood at that
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: podium and explicitly declared that oil demand will continue to
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: be significant for decades to come and that Canada must
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: be the world's trusted supplier. I mean, that's a total
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: break from the Trudeau era. But look at the response
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: to Washington threats. I mean, a reporter asked Carney about
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Trump demanding an apology within three to four weeks and
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: dropping all tariffs on our side. And his advisor, Peter Navarro,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: told Canadian lobbyists to get the hell out of the country.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, a normal prime minister would take this bait. Carney, though,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: just laughed, smiled, and delivered a cold corporate brush-off. He said,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: I take note of both comments, no response to either,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: dismissing them both, but reiterating that we stand ready to
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: negotiate in good faith. But he thinks that he can
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: afford to be this icy because he's building up structural leverage.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: According to Bloomberg, this new Canada-EU love affair, the Alliance
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: for the Future, announced intentions, if it gets approved, to
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: build new undersea cables and increase fuel shipments to counterbalance
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the U.S. and China. So when you combine EU trade
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: alliances with redirecting a million barrels of crude a day
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: away from the U.S. to Asia... Gas Buddy actually was
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: right yesterday with one of their commentators.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: The U.S.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Interior should be alarmed because this is pushing Canadian oil
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: away from American refineries that rely on it. So Carney
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: is using energy infrastructure to break the captive relationship so
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have to apologize or capitulate to Washington. I mean,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: it's a bold strategy, and we're going to see how
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: it plays out for him, Gene.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: You know, I saw the convicted felon, the Trump-funky Peter
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Navarro on TV saying that, and it reminded me of
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: a chihuahua in the middle of a thunderstorm. But hey, listen,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: final point here on Lit Geek's Got a Take. This
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: is a lot of global focus we're talking about. Is
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: it going to distract from some of our other domestic
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: problems like housing, the cost of living, the cost of groceries?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: The list goes on and on.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is actually the single biggest political vulnerability.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Employing these C-suite strategies, EU trade deals, massive pipeline, the
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: timelines look, it all looks great on the front page,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: but this doesn't necessarily lower grocery bills in Windsor or Niagara,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: address health care backlogs, or lower rent in southwest Ontario
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: today or tomorrow or, you know, any time in the
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: near future. Carney implemented 22,000 public service cuts without fixing
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: the core bureaucracy. So if he spends all of his
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: executive energy playing 4-D chess while Canadians still feel their
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: daily cost of living doesn't improve, the shareholders in this scenario,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: the voters, may decide to fire the CEO, the prime minister,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: at the next AGM, which is the next election, whenever
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: that happens. So I would say for Carney... Do an
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: election sooner than later if you want to, you know,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: not take that risk and secure this majority in cement
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: because you don't want to take a risk of it
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: going down when you're riding high in the polls today.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: All right. Excellent take this morning. We'll talk to you
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: on Monday.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Gene.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: John Litke and Litke's Got a Take.