The Policies Experts Rate Highest Are the Ones They Expect Least
A new Forecasting Research Institute survey asked experts, superforecasters, AI risk specialists and members of the U.S. public how specific policies would change the odds of an AI-caused catastrophe by 2050. Despite wide disagreement about how risky AI is, the groups largely agreed on what would help most, and agreed that those measures are the least likely to be adopted.
In this episode
Who was surveyed, and how their baseline risk estimates differ (2% for experts, 5.2% for AI risk specialists)
Why an international body that approves frontier models before release was the most popular…
The skinny
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