Latest / Words & Numbers / Episode 408: Be Thankful!
Transcript
- 0:00Hi, I'm James and I'm Anthony. And this is words and numbers
- 0:07brought to you by the good people at Khaki, the Center for
- 0:10American Culture and Ideas. Ant, what's new and exciting in
- 0:14your world this week? Well, not so new, but certainly
- 0:16exciting. president-elect Donald Trump has pledged big tariffs on
- 0:21the United States, three largest trading partners.
- 0:24That's Canada, Mexico and China. In that order.
- 0:28He said that he wants to impose a 25% tariff on imports from
- 0:33those three countries. Because those Canadians and
- 0:36Mexicans are just killing us. Yeah, well, there's a couple
- 0:39things to think about here. 1 is a tariff is no different than a
- 0:44sales tax. The only difference between a
- 0:48tariff and a sales tax is that the tariff applies to goods that
- 0:54are coming in from a foreign country.
- 0:56Other than that, in every way it looks just like a sales tax.
- 1:00We've said this before, but we have to say it again.
- 1:03The end consumer pays the tariff.
- 1:06Yeah, the end consumer's going to end up paying for this.
- 1:09Why is that? Largely because of competition.
- 1:12Foreign producers will look at the globe and say, well, I can
- 1:17sell in the United States for 25% haircut, or I can sell
- 1:21anywhere else on planet Earth and not have the 25% haircut.
- 1:26So if I'm going to sell in the US, the US consumers better pay
- 1:31me an extra 25%, otherwise I'm going elsewhere.
- 1:35And it works that way literally every single time.
- 1:38This is not news. We learned this when we we, I
- 1:42say the science of economics moved out of the mercantilist
- 1:46age around what, the early 1700s?
- 1:50That's how long ago we figured out the tariffs are a bad idea.
- 1:56And yet, in the public mind, we're going to charge China,
- 2:00Mexico and Canada. Somehow, magically, foreign
- 2:04nations will pay. But it's not foreign nations
- 2:07that are doing business with us. And the businessmen in these
- 2:10foreign countries aren't doing business with the United States.
- 2:14They're doing business with people right here in the United
- 2:17States. Yeah, now it gets worse than
- 2:19this. Because on the one hand,
- 2:22Americans who purchase things from abroad are now going to pay
- 2:2525% more. Another thing worth considering
- 2:29is that China, Mexico and Canada are likely not to take this
- 2:35sitting down. They're going to impose their
- 2:37own tariffs. Now that becomes a problem for
- 2:41the United States because US producers export to foreign
- 2:47countries, and the top three foreign countries they export to
- 2:50are Canada, Mexico and China. In fact, of the 50 U.S. states,
- 2:5612 of them are net exporters. That is, they export more than
- 3:00they import, so any US manufacturer who's exporting is
- 3:05going to get hit subsequently with similar tariffs imposed by
- 3:10the home countries. And this goes far deeper than
- 3:13just say produce, but I looked up produce a few minutes ago and
- 3:17we get 60% of our produce from Mexico and almost 20% from
- 3:21Canada. So about 80% of your produce is
- 3:25about to skyrocket in price, 25%.
- 3:28It is. Now an astute listener would
- 3:30say, all right, well, fine, the Americans producers are selling
- 3:35stuff to the Canadians, the Mexicans and the Chinese.
- 3:38But following the arguments that you and I have just laid out,
- 3:41what's going to happen is that the US producers will charge 25%
- 3:46more to overcome the tariffs that Canada, Mexico and China
- 3:49will impose. And yes, that's all correct.
- 3:52But here's the kicker, at the end, those goods when they hit
- 3:56the foreign markets will cost the foreign consumers 25% more.
- 4:00And what are they going to do? They're going to buy less
- 4:03because it's more expensive. And so we American producers are
- 4:07going to be selling less to foreign consumers.
- 4:10We American consumers are going to be buying less from foreign
- 4:14producers. And across the board, you get
- 4:16what you and I repeat constantly, which is you will
- 4:20have less of the thing you tax. In this case, we're going to
- 4:23have a lot less consumption and production.
- 4:25Including groceries, which is the thing everybody was pissed
- 4:29off about in the 1st place, right?
- 4:30The price of groceries has skyrocketed.
- 4:32Well, buckle up because it's about to get worse if these
- 4:36tariffs go through. If they go through, I would like
- 4:39to do an episode as I'm fascinated at the answer you
- 4:42gave me on the previous episode when I asked, does the president
- 4:46have the power to impose a tariff all unto himself?
- 4:50I thought you were going to come back and say, oh, no, no, no,
- 4:52this has to go through Congress. But you indicated that maybe
- 4:55not. I don't want to go into that
- 4:56now, but that's going to make a good future episode.
- 4:59We'll get into it down the road. The ever so slightly longer
- 5:03answer is that Congress is involved, but we'll see where
- 5:07that all leads soon enough. You know, there's this website
- 5:10that I kind of track from time to time just called Study Finds
- 5:13if you ever. You know, I think I have.
- 5:15Yeah, I recognize the name. Just kind of grabs various
- 5:19academic studies from around the world and puts them in very
- 5:22clear English terminology so you can go from academic E to
- 5:27American English pretty quickly. And today's the headline how
- 5:31political hatred turns people against everything from
- 5:34chocolate to charities. If you think about it for a
- 5:37second, you have to ask yourself, how far does my
- 5:41political hatred go? Does it go so far that it can
- 5:45take something that I'm generally in favor of and turn
- 5:48it into something that I'm generally against?
- 5:52And I remember a conversation I had with a Co worker years ago.
- 5:56We had stopped for a drink at a convenience store and I grabbed
- 6:00a Snapple. And he said, why would you buy
- 6:03Snapple? And I said because it's tasty
- 6:05and delicious. And he said yeah, but they
- 6:07support pro-life causes. And I said, well, who cares?
- 6:12And he couldn't believe what I had just said, couldn't believe
- 6:14it. And I said, would I not buy Ben
- 6:16and Jerry's because they're a pack of Pinko's?
- 6:19They make the best ice cream I've ever had.
- 6:21Why would I not buy their ice cream?
- 6:23They're competing in the market for my dollars.
- 6:25I'm going to go with the things I love.
- 6:27And it never occurred to me that I should somehow punish
- 6:31companies who I disagreed with politically.
- 6:34And I think I was in the majority at that time.
- 6:37This was probably 30 years ago. 35 years as time has gone by, I
- 6:41think I'm definitely in the minority now.
- 6:44The studies that they're looking at seem to indicate that I'm
- 6:47exactly right. So I'm going to leave the link
- 6:50in the show notes so people can take a look.
- 6:52But the interesting question is how much of your regular life is
- 6:57determined by what the opposition is up to?
- 7:01Will you change your mind about something that you have always
- 7:05been in favor of because somebody in the opposition party
- 7:08is now also in favor of it? Right.
- 7:11This goes for everything from, say, ice cream, which is an
- 7:14example that they gave in the article.
- 7:16Donald Trump famously loves cherry vanilla ice cream.
- 7:20So now liberals don't like cherry vanilla ice cream Any.
- 7:23Oh, come on. Yeah, no, it's to that level.
- 7:26It seems ridiculous, right? They go a step further and they
- 7:29start asking questions about fashion, something that I know
- 7:33zero about. As you well know, every piece of
- 7:35clothing in my closet is black. Just to save myself in trouble.
- 7:38All right, now I have to interrupt you.
- 7:40James came to visit me couple of weeks ago and he was on his way
- 7:44in between places, hadn't done laundry.
- 7:46So he brings a bunch of laundry and my wife threw his laundry in
- 7:49the thing and she had to go somewhere and he was sleeping as
- 7:52James does. And so I need to use the dryer.
- 7:56His shirts are there, so I pulled them out.
- 7:58I figure I'll put them on hangers for the James.
- 8:00They're all nice. He had like 7 shirts.
- 8:03They were identical in black. Not like, you know, interesting
- 8:06patent, just straight up black shirts.
- 8:09Seven of them, absolutely the same.
- 8:12When you find something that works, can't you stay?
- 8:15I just bought four more of those same shirts, but I digress.
- 8:20They showed pictures of various politicians wearing certain
- 8:25things and people's responses to the clothing items.
- 8:30We're deeply tied to the political figures that wore
- 8:33them. Wow.
- 8:35Now if you can look at a red tie that party A is wearing and then
- 8:39look at the same red tie that party B is wearing and like one
- 8:43of them and hate the other, you're the problem.
- 8:46And that's where we've gotten, it's gotten so profound at this
- 8:50point, the party hatred, that we will find any reason to hate
- 8:54each other. Yeah.
- 8:55It's somewhat baffling, and it should be baffling to everybody,
- 8:59but of course it is not. Just draw this out, right?
- 9:03OK, fine. We're talking about red ties.
- 9:06Well, what about when we talk about trade policy?
- 9:11I remember not too long ago when the Republican Party was the
- 9:14party of free trade and the Democratic Party was the party
- 9:18of protectionism. What the hell happened there?
- 9:21Now, Republicans hate free trade.
- 9:24Do Democrats hate protectionism? Well, yeah, but if and only if
- 9:27there's a Republican in the White House, you see how this
- 9:30goes. As with all things economic, I
- 9:33think each generation has to relearn principles of econ and I
- 9:38thought we'd covered this trade thing once and for all back in
- 9:41the Clinton era with NAFTA when economist said this is going to
- 9:46be a great thing. And indeed, it was a great
- 9:48thing, contrary to the detractors claims.
- 9:51And here we are, what, 30 years later, doing the same thing all
- 9:56over again, only in reverse. We're going to.
- 9:59Undo all the benefits that a North American free trade
- 10:02agreement gave us instead of doing the smart thing and giving
- 10:06us a global free trade agreement.
- 10:08Oh well. This of course brings us to the
- 10:10foolishness of the week and we're back to the great state of
- 10:14California, and specifically the Bay Area of California, where I
- 10:19found a headline today. Get this, the minimum qualifying
- 10:24income for a home in the Bay Area.
- 10:27Not with the home costs, but what you must make to qualify
- 10:32for a minimum home purchase. Right for a bank to even talk to
- 10:36you. For a bank to talk to you so you
- 10:38can buy the cheapest house in the Bay Area, you have to make
- 10:42how much $320,000? Wow, wow.
- 10:48I don't know the numbers exactly, but I'm pretty sure
- 10:52that puts you in the top 2%. Top 1% is like 450.
- 10:56I know for a fact it's top five. Oh yeah, definitely it's top
- 11:00five. It's at least top five, So if
- 11:03you're living in the Bay Area, you're probably going to be
- 11:07either renting or homeless for the rest of your life.
- 11:10By the numbers, that's literally true because everybody can't be
- 11:15in the top 5%. It just doesn't work that way.
- 11:18And California is going to have fewer and fewer people in top 5%
- 11:21the more it makes its taxes progressive.
- 11:24It leans on the higher income people and higher income people
- 11:27are going to leave. I guess in this case, they have
- 11:29to leave. They can't afford to live there.
- 11:31Well, they've been leaving. California has been a net
- 11:34exporter of human beings for a while now.
- 11:37And it's not the poverty ridden people who, you know, load up EU
- 11:41Haul and get out. It's upper middle class and
- 11:44upper class people who leave. And they're leaving for Arizona
- 11:47and Texas. Shocking, I know.
- 11:50The response in California will doubtlessly be, well, we have to
- 11:55mandate higher salaries, which will just have the net effect of
- 11:59driving more people away and increasing the cost of homes
- 12:03simply and then raising the amount of money people have to
- 12:07make in order to afford those homes, right.
- 12:09This could be the beginning of a death spiral for California if
- 12:14they don't realize what's going on and take measures to change
- 12:19it right now. And the odds of them doing that
- 12:21are approaching 0. So best of luck to you.
- 12:25If you live in California, I can't imagine why anybody in his
- 12:28right mind would stay there. It's kind of interesting, when
- 12:30you think about it, that California's kind of painted
- 12:33itself into a corner politically.
- 12:35They're very much about vilifying the rich, and yet
- 12:39their policies are largely aimed not intentionally, but they have
- 12:43the effect of making it only possible for the rich to live
- 12:47there. That's right, geographically
- 12:50it's got everything. It's a hell of a piece of
- 12:53property and yet through single party rule they found a way to
- 12:57just RIP it apart. Yeah, if you thought two party
- 13:00rule was bad, look at California.
- 13:04Just wait until you get single party rule.
- 13:08For One Stop shopping for all things James and Aunt, visit our
- 13:11website wordsandnumbers.org. We give a special shout out to
- 13:17our Patreon sponsors who help us keep the lights on.
- 13:20If you'd like to contribute, go to patreon.com/words and
- 13:24Numbers. Oh, that was your foolishness.
- 13:27I'm sorry I haven't been keeping count of things.
- 13:30This wasn't my foolishness, Aunt.
- 13:32It was the foolish. It was.
- 13:33The foolishness we're recording now a couple days before
- 13:37Thanksgiving. So this episode will air after
- 13:39Thanksgiving, before Christmas, and it's a good time to think
- 13:43about being thankful, which we try to do this time of year each
- 13:47year. And you know, if it means
- 13:49anything, we're. Always late, right?
- 13:52Yes. We try to be thankful and we
- 13:54forget and then we're late. I recorded a video several years
- 13:58ago in which I was arguing that the world is becoming a better
- 14:02place. And I gave all kinds of data to
- 14:04that effect. And one of the things I talked
- 14:07about was that we have become so rich and it's happened over
- 14:11generations, so you tend not to notice it.
- 14:14But we have become so rich that what I'm about to say is not an
- 14:18exaggeration. What we call today poverty 100
- 14:23years ago was middle class. And I've got some good numbers
- 14:27to back that up. In fact, I spent the last week
- 14:30going through, I collected 22 data sources to put together
- 14:35this thing that we're now going to talk about.
- 14:38So let me throw out just a few facts.
- 14:41In 1924, so 100 years ago, the average annual earnings for a
- 14:46worker was around 1300. Fourteen $100.00.
- 14:49Of course that's not adjusted for inflation, that's thirteen,
- 14:51$1400 in 1924. And you know today the median
- 14:55workers making over 60,000. So of course huge difference
- 14:59there. But what matters is you know
- 15:02what you can buy with that. So let's do a little bit of math
- 15:06here. If you look at the average
- 15:08worker in 1924 earning thirteen, $1400 a year, and the average
- 15:14number of hours worked in 1924, not 40 hours a week, it was 50
- 15:20hours a week. Federal income tax rate was 2%
- 15:24for this person. So when all the dust settles,
- 15:27this person's taking home after federal taxes $0.51 an hour
- 15:32versus today the meeting worker takes home $32 an hour.
- 15:37So like 60 times that, right? But let's look at prices. 1924
- 15:43loaf of bread was nine cents, pound of butter 52 cents, dozen
- 15:48eggs, 51 cents. A kWh of electricity cost you
- 15:53three cents. A brand new Chevrolet James base
- 15:57model 580 dollars. Oh come on Ant, everybody knows
- 16:02the correct rejoinder here. None of this is adjusted for
- 16:07inflation. No, it's not adjusted for
- 16:09inflation. So what you do here is you ask
- 16:12the question, how long would this 1924 worker have to work
- 16:18earning his $0.51 an hour? How long would he have to work
- 16:22to earn enough money to be able to afford a brand new Chevrolet
- 16:26or an average home, or a dozen eggs or whatever it is?
- 16:30Let's take a step back here, because to my mind, this is
- 16:33actually a much better measure of what's going on in the
- 16:37economy. I think so because it's
- 16:38measuring what you actually want to get at, which is how much
- 16:42effort do I have to put in to get the thing I want.
- 16:45That's exactly it. It measures my output for my.
- 16:48Input. Yes, right.
- 16:51There are difficulties in measuring inflation.
- 16:52I'm not saying we don't do a pretty good job of it.
- 16:54I think we do a very good job of it.
- 16:56But this does an excellent. Job of it, yeah.
- 17:00And it doesn't take into account certain things that we have now
- 17:04that we didn't have back then. Yeah, so you get scientific
- 17:07advance and yes, we all have Internet access now, obviously a
- 17:11non starter in 1924 and all of the many things that make life
- 17:15better. But if you want to get to brass
- 17:18tacks, you know a car, eggs, bread and butter, these are
- 17:22pretty good measures. Yeah, let me throw out just
- 17:25three basics here. A pound of butter, dozen eggs
- 17:27and a pound of coffee. Or I can throw in another one, a
- 17:30gallon of milk. So we got those four things,
- 17:33Butter, eggs, coffee, milk. Each one of those in 1924 cost
- 17:38one hour's worth of Labor for the average worker.
- 17:42So given how much you're earning, you each each one of
- 17:45them an hour's worth of Labor, plus or minus a bit.
- 17:47Oh, throw in a pound of bacon also, that was 45 minutes, a
- 17:51little bit less. So we have butter, eggs, coffee,
- 17:53milk, bacon, each one of those things individually, about an
- 17:56hour's worth of Labor. That accounts for the number of
- 18:00hours the person's working, how much he was earning, and the
- 18:03federal income tax rate, all in 1924.
- 18:06Here's where life gets really interesting.
- 18:09The median worker today do the same thing.
- 18:12The median worker pays if you do the married filing jointly, he's
- 18:16paying on average about 6% income tax, making after tax 32
- 18:21bucks an hour if you take today's prices.
- 18:24And this is after we've gone through this period of inflation
- 18:27in 2022, right? Those five items I listed that
- 18:31took an hour's worth of Labor to afford in 1924.
- 18:35Today, pound of butter, 9 minutes.
- 18:39Dozen eggs, 6 minutes. Pound of coffee, 12 minutes,
- 18:44Gallon of milk, 8 minutes, Pound of bacon, 13 minutes.
- 18:48So you do the math and the median worker today's purchasing
- 18:52power after tax purchasing power is like what, 4-5 times what the
- 18:59median workers purchasing power was back in 1920?
- 19:02Four, I'm looking at the chart, and it would be a good thing to
- 19:06include the chart in the show notes, but I'm looking at the
- 19:09chart and the median worker in 2024 works less, generally
- 19:14speaking, than the top 1% wage earner in 1924.
- 19:18Yeah, in 1924, the average work week was 50 hours.
- 19:22It's actually 34 hours today. But the top 1% of all earners
- 19:27still spent more time working to get these things then the median
- 19:33worker does in 2024. If you shift your gaze to the
- 19:37top 1% in 1924, I actually pulled tax records for 1924 from
- 19:43the IRS looking at this to figure out.
- 19:46But to be a top one percenter in 1924, you had to earn about
- 19:50$10,000, of course, in 1924 dollars.
- 19:53But in 1924, a top one percenter, How much time did it
- 19:57take him to buy those various things?
- 19:59The butter, 10 minutes. The eggs, 10 minutes.
- 20:02The coffee, 8 minutes. The gallon of milk, 11 minutes.
- 20:05The pound of bacon, 7 minutes. In other words, in terms of
- 20:08purchasing power, that one percenter in 1924 looks a lot
- 20:13like the median worker today. And that's, I think, what gets
- 20:17lost as generations pass, right. And you said something earlier
- 20:21that triggers this thought. Every generation we have to
- 20:25relearn certain things. And well, why is that?
- 20:28Well, because we have no experience with previous
- 20:30generations. Yeah, right.
- 20:32Somebody. Right now says, well, life is so
- 20:34hard. And what are they comparing it
- 20:36to? Well, life four years ago.
- 20:38Like six years ago, not life 100 years ago.
- 20:41And there's an ebb and a flow to these things over time.
- 20:45And we're not here to tell you that everything is milk and
- 20:48honey. It isn't.
- 20:50And when you look down at cars and housing, you start to get a
- 20:53sense of where the problems might lie, if indeed there are
- 20:56problems. Before we go to bigger ticket
- 20:59items, let me talk about someone earning 7/25 an hour, so 7/25 an
- 21:04hour today. I mean, I hesitate to even call
- 21:07it the minimum wage anymore because so many states have
- 21:09minimum wages at the 1015 dollar an hour level, but 725 still the
- 21:15federal minimum wage. So let's talk about someone
- 21:17who's full time, 40 hours a week, 7/25 an hour.
- 21:21This person has about the same purchasing power as the median
- 21:26wage worker did in 1924. So go back to the butter, the
- 21:29eggs, the coffee, the milk, the bacon, each one of which cost
- 21:33our 1924 middle class worker an hour of Labor.
- 21:37The 7/25 an hour worker today, it actually cost him a little
- 21:42bit less than an hour. The pound of butter is 45
- 21:45minutes, the dozen eggs, 30 minutes.
- 21:47The coffee's an hour. The gallon of milk, 36 minutes,
- 21:51the pound of bacon, also an hour.
- 21:53So in the same way that today's middle class worker looks like
- 21:57A1 percenter in 1924, today's 7/25 an hour worker looks like a
- 22:03middle class worker in 1924. Yeah, that's pretty telling it.
- 22:08Really is. Again, I think you hit the nail
- 22:10on the head when you say, look, you know, your fortunes ebb and
- 22:13flow and you know someone born in 2000 is not going to take
- 22:18much solace in this saying, look, I'm making 7/25 an hour
- 22:22and I've got nothing compared to other people.
- 22:24And that's absolutely right if you compare yourself to other
- 22:27people who exist today. But what we're encouraging
- 22:30people to do here is to take a deep breath and say, OK, but
- 22:33there's also this other comparison.
- 22:36Compare yourself to humans who came before you.
- 22:39And it's not saying necessarily that it makes you any better off
- 22:43today, but it does at least put in perspective the fact that
- 22:46what we are thinking of as poverty, humans never before
- 22:51ever thought of poverty. They thought that what we call
- 22:54poverty was really good. I think if you do look more
- 22:58broadly, you do have to be pretty happy.
- 23:01Is probably not the right word, but at least content with things
- 23:04at present, when the average poor person in the United States
- 23:08can afford a smartphone. I think the very definition of
- 23:11poverty is very, very different than it once was, because
- 23:15poverty Once Upon a time was that you were starving and not
- 23:17living underneath a roof. Yes, right.
- 23:21So things have in fact changed for the better for everybody.
- 23:24And given the various social programs we have, not everyone,
- 23:28but almost everyone has those guarantees.
- 23:32You're going to get food. It might not be as much as you
- 23:34want. It might not be the quality that
- 23:36you want. But with food stamps, with SNAP,
- 23:38you've got something. You got a roof over your head
- 23:41with Community Housing and government subsidies.
- 23:44And these sorts of things may not be exactly what you want.
- 23:47It may not be the best, but it's something.
- 23:49Whereas, you know, prior to this century, if you were poor, well,
- 23:53you died. I want to drive home the point
- 23:56that what Ant said is literally true.
- 23:58People don't realize that. They think that that's a way
- 24:02that we say things now. It's an idiom of some sort.
- 24:05It's not. It's the literal truth.
- 24:07Let's get on to the things that maybe have shifted over time.
- 24:11Yeah, let's look at some other things here.
- 24:13So some higher ticket items. Let's talk about rent, because
- 24:16people are complaining about rent.
- 24:17So Census gives me some average figures going back to 1924 for
- 24:22large cities, medium cities, small cities.
- 24:25And I'm going to discount the large cities right off because
- 24:27look, if you choose to live in New York City, don't complain to
- 24:31me about the rent. There's plenty of other places
- 24:33in the country you can live. That rent is half of what you're
- 24:36paying. So let's look at a medium city
- 24:39in 1924. A month's rent in a medium city
- 24:44cost the median worker 1 1/2 weeks of Labor, so 1 1/2 weeks
- 24:50of your paychecks. That covers the rent right there
- 24:53today. Median worker little bit more
- 24:56than one week. So he's actually a little bit
- 24:58better off than the median worker of 1924, but roughly the
- 25:02same. Top 1% in 1924 was 1.2 days.
- 25:07So if you look at this, our median worker today looking at
- 25:10rent, our median worker today looks like the median worker in
- 25:131924. Doesn't look at all like the top
- 25:151% worker. Meanwhile the 7/25 an hour
- 25:19worker today, it takes him a full month to earn enough to pay
- 25:24rent. So you could see here your
- 25:26people complaining about the poor not being able to afford
- 25:29housing. If it takes you 100% of your
- 25:33paycheck for an entire month to pay the month's rent, you've got
- 25:37nothing left. By definition.
- 25:39Right at 7/25 an hour. Right.
- 25:42And in medium city it takes 1.2 months.
- 25:45Right, 1.2 so you're actually behind the table.
- 25:47So this is with rent, but then there's a counter argument to
- 25:51this. It took me a while to find the
- 25:52data on this, but here's some things to think about.
- 25:56Yes, housing today is much more expensive than 1924, but today's
- 26:02average house, in terms of square footage, the average
- 26:05house is double the size of the average house in 1924, and the
- 26:11typical family size is about half the family size of 1924.
- 26:16So. Oh, wow.
- 26:17Yeah, in terms of square footage per person, you've got four
- 26:21times as much house today as you did in 1924.
- 26:25That's actually saying something.
- 26:27Well, that alone makes our 7/25 an hour worker look a lot like
- 26:32the median worker of 1924. Right, because you could cut
- 26:36this into the price per square foot.
- 26:38Right. Yes.
- 26:39Instead of the price per home, you could cut it into the price
- 26:42per square foot and get radically different results.
- 26:45You're back to the minimum wage worker today, looking like the
- 26:48median worker of 1924. But let's stick with price per
- 26:52home. It's just easier for people to
- 26:54conceptualize. But before we go there, because
- 26:56what I'm going to tell you now applies to homes as well, it's
- 27:00not just the size. In 1924, what fraction of houses
- 27:05did not have indoor plumbing? In 1924, boy, this is going to
- 27:09be a seat of the pants guess for me.
- 27:12I'm going to guess it's going to sound crazy to people, but I
- 27:15think I'm probably closer to right 65%. 65% did not have
- 27:21indoor plumbing. The correct answer is 99%.
- 27:25Holy. I'm way up. 99% of houses did
- 27:29not have indoor plumbing, 70% did not have electricity, and
- 27:34zero of them had HVAC. Right.
- 27:37So forget about the square footage when you talk about a
- 27:42rental on an apartment or purchasing a house in 1924
- 27:46versus today. They're not the same thing.
- 27:49No, they're not. And let's be clear, many of the
- 27:53things that we just accept as given in our housing is mandated
- 27:59by government. Right.
- 28:00So if you're upset that the price is high, well, we could go
- 28:05back. We don't have to have indoor
- 28:07plumbing. That's right.
- 28:09We don't have to have air conditioning.
- 28:12And of course people are jumping up and down saying hey, you're
- 28:15an idiot, what's wrong with you? Of course.
- 28:17Well, and that's the difference between want and need.
- 28:21And we've decided that our wants are actually necessities, and
- 28:25that has the net effect of driving the price up all the way
- 28:27around. I'm OK with it.
- 28:30I'm not going to look at a house that doesn't have plumbing and
- 28:32air conditioning and electricity, but understand that
- 28:35these things are not free. And that's worth underlining.
- 28:38The houses without electricity, without indoor plumbing, that
- 28:42was the standard in 1924. Today it's illegal.
- 28:46You're not allowed to have a house like that.
- 28:49You can't even do it. Is that for the best?
- 28:53Probably. But that which is best always
- 28:56comes at a cost. Yeah.
- 28:57And so when people come back as they will and say, well, all of
- 29:01this is well and good, but the fact is I can't afford AI think
- 29:05the average house today is $420,000.
- 29:09I can't afford a $420,000 house. OK, that's a truth.
- 29:14However, the house you're talking about was science
- 29:18fiction to any generation that came before you.
- 29:21It's like me bitching that I can't afford a Starship.
- 29:25Yeah, I can't afford a Starship, but the fact is.
- 29:29In total fairness, I have heard Aunt bitch that he can't afford
- 29:32to. Yeah, I'm very annoyed about it.
- 29:34But there will come a time, and I kid you not, there'll come a
- 29:37time several generations into the future where a lot of people
- 29:41can and some people can't. Other people who can't are going
- 29:44to say, look, this isn't fair. I can't afford a Starship and
- 29:46other people have starships and I'm back here from my previous
- 29:50generations. I'm going to put my hand up from
- 29:51the grave and say, what the hell are you talking about?
- 29:55You know, you have to ask yourself, what would your great
- 29:57grandparents think about the way you live right now?
- 30:00Yes. And my great grandparents would
- 30:03probably refer to me as Rockefeller.
- 30:05Yeah, right before we started recording, you said that you
- 30:08would just come back from exercising.
- 30:10We're in this space now where our lives are so easy.
- 30:14We have to simulate work. We call it exercise, but that's
- 30:18what you're doing. You're simulating work.
- 30:21There was a time in American history, not too terribly long
- 30:25ago, when you would get home from work and you'd say, I'm
- 30:28tired, give me dinner. Right.
- 30:30Yes. Because you had been exercising
- 30:32all day long. And then you'd go to bed because
- 30:34there was no light, the sun went down.
- 30:36Yeah, and you'd have extra blankets because maybe there was
- 30:39no heat either. It's interesting how much better
- 30:42life is now, and I don't know why human beings are incapable
- 30:47of seeing it, but we are. Well.
- 30:49I don't want to hit people too hard on that because the fact is
- 30:54part of the reason we have all the wonderful things we do have
- 30:58is that human beings said I want more, and we went out and we
- 31:03figured out ways to have more. Right.
- 31:05We are not complacent as a species.
- 31:08That's right. Yeah.
- 31:08And not being complacent, looking for more, looking to
- 31:11better yourself, These are all great things.
- 31:14But in this season of Thanksgiving, Christmas, it's a
- 31:17good time to take a deep breath and remember also, in addition
- 31:21to that, be thankful for what we do have.
- 31:25It's not a bad time of year, right?
- 31:26To sit back and I do this every year and look, some years I'm
- 31:31way better off than I was the previous year.
- 31:34Other years I'm way behind where I was the previous year.
- 31:38You were all over the map. Yeah, you've gone from the first
- 31:40quartile to the fifth quartile several times in our friendship.
- 31:45And honestly, it's happened so many Times Now that I don't even
- 31:47mind. Right?
- 31:49It's fine. And I think that's part of what
- 31:53living in America is right now, being able to know that it's not
- 31:57the end of the world, right? Things will turn around.
- 32:00Just give it a minute. It'll work out.
- 32:02And it always does, right? Because we've got a society, a
- 32:05system, however you want to typify it, that's designed to
- 32:09yield these outcomes. That's the very design of the
- 32:12thing. So why would you be shocked when
- 32:15these outcomes happen? It's.
- 32:17The last thing you should be shocked by?
- 32:19And when you look back at what someone 100 years ago faced on a
- 32:23daily basis, on a daily basis, how could you not be thrilled
- 32:28with your lot in life that you were born now?
- 32:31I'm thrilled knowing that my children will be far better off
- 32:34than I am, and their children better yet.
- 32:38And that's all the time we've got this week on words and
- 32:40numbers. Until next time.
- 32:42Send us e-mail wordsandnumberspodcast@gmail.com.
- 32:46Try to be nice to one person who doesn't deserve it till next
- 32:49week. Can't take it easy.
- 32:50See you next. Week, James.