Latest / Job Hopping with Fexingo: Tenure, Loyalty, and the Modern Career Resume / The Best Time of Year to Quit Your Job
Transcript
- Lucas: So there is a right time to quit your job — and I don't mean emotionally or professionally, I mean literally what month you hand in your notice can shift your next salary by thousands of dollars. Luna: Okay, I've heard people say 'never quit in December' or 'wait until January,' but I've never seen actual numbers on whether that's real or just folklore. Lucas: There's real data. A workforce analytics firm called Visier published a study in 2024 looking at over two million employee records. They found that people who resigned in the first quarter — January through March — got an average salary bump of 14% compared to their previous role. People who resigned in the fourth quarter — October through December — landed only about 9%. Luna: That's a five-percentage-point gap just based on timing. That's real money. Lucas: Yeah. On a $100,000 salary, that's $14,000 versus $9,000. And the gap isn't random — it maps to how companies budget and hire. Most organizations set new headcount budgets in Q4 for the following year, but they don't actually start recruiting in force until January or February. So if you quit in Q4, you're often negotiating against a budget that's already been approved and maybe half-spent. If you quit in Q1, you're hitting the freshest pool of open roles with the most flexibility. Luna: That makes sense. And I bet Q1 also lines up with annual bonus cycles — people want to collect their bonus before they leave. Lucas: Exactly. And this is where the calendar gets really tactical. If your bonus pays out in March, you don't want to quit in February. But if you wait until April, you might miss the peak hiring wave. So there's this sweet spot many people aim for — hand in notice the week after your bonus hits, ideally in late March or early April, when hiring is still active. Lucas: Now, there's another peak quitting month: September. And that's tied to the academic calendar — people finish summer, kids are back in school, and they reassess. September hires also benefit from companies trying to fill roles before Q4 budget freezes. But the salary bump data for September quits lands closer to 11% — still good, but not Q1 levels. Luna: So December is the worst month to quit — you lose bonus timing, you might forfeit accrued PTO, and hiring is dead anyway. But I've also heard that quitting on a Monday is better than a Friday? Is that real? Lucas: That's more about optics than data. Some managers say if you quit on a Friday, it looks like you're sneaking out — you hand the notice and then disappear for the weekend. Monday or Tuesday gives you a chance to have a transition conversation. But the data on that is anecdotal. The month matters way more than the day. Lucas: And here's another wrinkle: contract terms. Some employment contracts have clawback clauses for bonuses or relocation expenses if you leave within a certain period after receiving them. If your bonus vests in March and you quit in April, you're safe. If you quit in November, some companies will demand a prorated repayment. So you really have to read your offer letter. Luna: That sounds like something a lot of people don't think about until they're already in the exit interview. So if someone's listening and thinking about a move — what's the actionable takeaway? Look at your company's fiscal year? Check your bonus vesting schedule? And then aim for Q1? Lucas: Yeah, start with your own calendar. When does your bonus pay? When does your PTO reset? Are there any clawback windows? Then cross-reference that with the broader hiring season. If you have flexibility, Q1 is the strongest play. September is a solid backup. December is almost never the right call unless you have a specific opportunity that forces your hand. Lucas: Right. Retail peaks around the holidays, so Q4 is actually a terrible time to leave because you're busy. Education follows the school year. Tax accounting — you don't quit during tax season. So the general rule holds: understand your industry's busy season and get out right after it ends, when hiring demand is still high for the next cycle. Luna: This is exactly the kind of thing I wish someone had told me earlier in my career. If you've been listening and thinking through a career move, we know this show helps people make those calls. If that's you, and you'd like to keep the show ad-free and independent, you can support us at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a small gesture that lets us keep doing deep dives like this without commercial breaks. Lucas: Yeah, we really appreciate that. And it keeps the content focused on what matters — no sponsor reads, no fluff. So back to timing: there's one more data point that surprised me. The Visier study also showed that people who quit in their first year at a company — regardless of month — tended to see smaller salary bumps than people who stayed at least 18 months. The sweet spot for maximizing jump was between 18 and 36 months. Luna: That lines up with what we've talked about before — job hopping too fast can signal flight risk, but waiting too long leaves money on the table. So the optimal pattern might be: stay 18 to 36 months, then leave in Q1. Lucas: Exactly. And if you can line up your exit with a strong job market, all the better. Right now in mid-2026, the market is fairly balanced — not red-hot like 2021, but not frozen either. So timing your quit to a Q1 window could give you a meaningful edge. Luna: What about people who have a really compelling opportunity that falls outside that window? Say a dream role opens up in August. Lucas: Then you take it. The data is about averages and optimization, not absolutes. If the role is a massive step up in title, skills, or long-term trajectory, you don't pass it up just because it's August. But if you have flexibility — if you're passively looking and can wait a few months — waiting for Q1 is a statistically smart play. Luna: And what about the notice period itself? Does the length of your notice affect the salary bump? Lucas: There's some evidence that longer notice periods — say four weeks instead of two — can slightly reduce your leverage because the employer knows you're locked in for longer and they might have to wait. But the effect is small. The bigger factor is how quickly you can start. If you can start in two weeks, you're more attractive than someone who needs a month or more. Lucas: So if you're planning a move, here's a checklist: one, know your bonus and PTO schedule. Two, target Q1 or early Q2. Three, aim for a start date within two to three weeks of accepting an offer. Four, avoid December unless you absolutely have to. Five, factor in your industry's season. That's the playbook. Luna: And if you're a hiring manager listening, does this mean you should expect more resignations in Q1? Lucas: Absolutely. January and February are the highest resignation months every year. If you're a manager, you should proactively check in with your team in December — offer retention bonuses, adjust comp, or address burnout — because if you wait until March, you're already behind. The best defense against Q1 turnover is a December conversation. Luna: That's a great point. So for employees, plan your exit; for managers, plan your retention. Either way, the calendar is your friend. Lucas: Exactly. And the final takeaway: your grandmother might have told you never to quit in December because it looks bad. The data says she was right — but for different reasons.