Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW REPORT: Bitcoin is about to EXPLODE but not for the reasons you think... | EP 1488

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NEW REPORT: Bitcoin is about to EXPLODE but not for the reasons you think... | EP 1488 · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
A huge Wall Street insider has just published a new report on
0:06
Bitcoin, and you're going to want to see it.
0:09
A lot of people think Bitcoin bouncing to 79 K this morning is
0:13
just a bear trap, but this report is suggesting that we
0:17
could be seeing something bigger brewing that might catch a lot
0:21
of people offside. So we're going to dive into this
0:24
report by Nidig, which manages actually I just learned this
0:27
this morning. They are U.S. banks, custodial
0:31
sub custodial manager. U.S. bank hold about $11
0:34
trillion in assets. So when they publish something,
0:38
when they publish this report, people listen.
0:40
And I think you should too. NIDIG has been a wall three
0:45
Bitcoin companies since 2017. The CEO Ross Stevens used to
0:50
work at Goldman Sachs. He's a well connected person.
0:53
So I think this report does have some weight to it.
0:56
I think there is some very good analysis here.
0:58
I'm not going to read the whole thing.
0:59
Obviously if you guys want to read it, go go on NYDIG.
1:02
But I do want to compare before I get to the report what we're
1:06
seeing from the mainstream news this morning because there is
1:10
literally the same headline going around everywhere.
1:12
So here's Yahoo Finance. Bitcoin jumps to 78K as Trump
1:17
extends Iran ceasefire we have coined as Bitcoin climbs to
1:21
$78,000 on Trump ceasefire extension.
1:24
Of course strategies $2.5 billion buy we have Bloomberg
1:28
same headline. Basically Bitcoin rises on
1:31
optimism over Trump's extended Iran ceasefire.
1:34
I even saw Wall Street Journal say something very similar that
1:37
bitcoins climbing because of the Iran ceasefire.
1:40
Now, I do in fact believe to some extent that that is
1:44
probably one of the reasons why we are seeing the Bitcoin price
1:48
RIP, why markets are feeling a little better.
1:51
And if you guys aren't really familiar, if you're not
1:53
following what Trump is tweeting, sorry, hold on guys.
1:56
I I need to change this light real quick.
1:59
I'm looking a little pale. So if you're not following the
2:02
Trump tweets, then maybe you are not necessarily aware of
2:08
everything. There we go.
2:09
Like, I got a little color back. Everything that he says and why
2:13
the markets are reacting. Essentially, the short of it is
2:18
Trump basically said we, we're going to be in this indefinite
2:21
ceasefire with Iran until these deals get, you know, hashed
2:25
through, get inked, get signed. There's a ceasefire going on
2:30
right now. We will still leave our U.S.
2:34
Navy ships to kind of blockade or at least I don't know watch
2:38
the Strait of Hormuz, but ceasefire is going to be on for
2:44
who knows for now it's indefinite, no ceasefire or no
2:47
more firing in the Middle East. Still seems like there's a
2:50
blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
2:52
So that's like the macro picture here and obviously all the
2:56
traditional media news are picking that up as the the
2:59
reason for Bitcoin going up, which and and some respects is
3:04
probably why the price is going up.
3:06
There are multiple factors going on right now and they are all
3:10
converging on Bitcoin. But let's look at this NYDIG
3:14
report because I think there is a lot of signal here.
3:18
This is on nydig.com and it's titled Bitcoins quiet grind
3:22
higher institutional Bitcoin goes mainstream, which is again,
3:28
I've been sort of saying it, that if you're looking at the
3:31
Bitcoin price right now, it is this slow grind higher.
3:34
Though, if you looked at the charts this morning, the candle,
3:38
we saw the, the aggressive move over into 7879 K.
3:44
We're almost at 80 K. We might be at 80K by the end of
3:47
the day, you know, 80K by end of day or we're all you guys know
3:51
the end of the meme. So it's it's a interesting
3:54
aggressive move this morning. It could because of the Iran
3:58
ceasefire, but I think there's something else brewing
4:02
underneath that has fundamentally shifted what we're
4:05
seeing right now. And there are a lot of people on
4:07
Twitter right now essentially saying the classic it's going to
4:12
go up in April, but it's going to go down in May.
4:13
The, you know, sell in May go away.
4:15
And I, and I, I am going to, I am, I am going to maybe
4:19
prematurely take a victory lap and, and give the, the bullish
4:23
take here. In contrast to the bears, Nico's
4:26
not here. So we're going to get bullish
4:27
today, OK, We're we're we're going to make fun of the bears a
4:30
little bit today, though I might be a little early because I
4:33
could could be wrong, but that's that's what I'm going to do
4:37
anyway, let's break this down. I did highlight a few portions.
4:40
A lot of the stuff in here you probably don't necessarily need
4:44
to read, but here's the short of it.
4:46
The highlights Bitcoin clear 76K on thinning supply and net
4:51
positive ETF flows with positioning data still far from
4:54
crowded. Read another way, there is not
5:00
that much action truly happening yet, but what we are seeing is
5:05
extremely positive and when everyone piles in, things can
5:08
get absolutely crazy. Now maybe that's what we saw
5:11
this morning because this was released a couple of days ago.
5:16
It we could be seeing that catalyst point anyways, going
5:19
further as institutional heavyweights continue to embrace
5:22
Bitcoin distribution. Not and not going to highlight
5:25
that word. We, we got to remember that word
5:27
distribution will likely determine who wins, which is
5:31
essentially what I was saying yesterday in the context of
5:35
Morgan Stanley scaring Black Rock with their ETF.
5:39
Why they seem to go out there now they're a little more
5:42
bullish. They're trying to, I wouldn't
5:45
say corner the market, but they're trying to maintain their
5:48
market share. And I think the Morgan Stanley
5:50
ETFII think it's sent a shiver down their back and they're
5:54
like, oh wait, we are not the clear winner in this game.
5:57
It's not over yet. A new incumbent could
6:00
potentially make a good run for the money.
6:03
Anyways, at the very bottom, it does mention strategy and
6:07
stretch, which is, as I've been covering the last week or so,
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just absolutely insane and mind blowing how much capital is
6:13
going into stretch, how much Bitcoin strategy is buying.
6:16
It's just, it's literally, like I said, sailor or strategy could
6:21
very much be the reason for why the Bitcoin price isn't in the,
6:27
you know, doldrums. It's not in the 4030 K or
6:29
whatever the ridiculous price prediction Nico did.
6:32
So here is the whole article. I'm not going to read the whole
6:35
thing, but I'll just read this highlight.
6:37
It goes Bitcoin battles back and I highlighted 1 portion of this
6:40
segment. It goes.
6:41
The implication is that this move is not driven by
6:44
speculative excess, which we've been covering.
6:47
It reflects a market transitioning from recovery into
6:51
a potential expansion phase supported by steady
6:55
institutional demand, improving macro condition conditions and
6:59
relatively conservative positioning, which is everything
7:03
we've been covering on this show for pretty much since the war
7:08
started. Now the next portion here is
7:10
called from exposure to integration.
7:12
Bitcoin becomes a portfolio building block, which we heard
7:16
yesterday from Jay Jacobs, the head of digital assets at
7:19
BlackRock, and of course, that one Goldman, sorry, Charles
7:24
Schwab guy that I was kind of trolling yesterday.
7:27
My bad, bro. Anyways, the highlighted portion
7:30
here is institutions are continuing to build around
7:33
Bitcoin moving beyond simple spot exposure and into a more
7:37
complete product ecosystem. I did cover the basis trade.
7:41
This is not exactly what it's talking about here.
7:45
As we saw with the I Bid ETF, with the kind of technicals of
7:49
the Morgan Stanley ETF, it's not just a cut and dry spot Bitcoin
7:54
play, it's a, as it said, quote, a more complete product.
8:00
And here we go in the end of this segment quote.
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Our opinion is that the institutionalization of Bitcoin
8:07
will not be about inventing new products, but industrializing
8:10
ones that already work for traditional assets.
8:13
Fees, liquidity, operational strength and especially
8:16
distribution will be the most important factors.
8:19
As that framing takes hold, it becomes easier for institutions
8:23
to underwrite, allocate and scale, expanding the addressable
8:26
market more than any single product launch.
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Now part of this does make me feel like it essentially said in
8:31
Wall Street terms, a lot more paper Bitcoin.
8:35
But I think the the real point, or at least the point that I
8:39
want to make here is what it says at the very end, expanding
8:43
the addressable market more than any single product launch.
8:47
Hence why when we saw Morgan Stanley launch their ETF, the
8:51
first US Bank, we were making the case that this is big news.
8:56
Yes, it's another ETF, but they have 10s of thousands of
9:00
financial advisors out there, millions of clients using
9:03
Charles Schwab, of course, trillions of dollars that they
9:06
can. And they're essentially saying,
9:08
hey, if you're slightly bullish on Bitcoin, you probably want to
9:10
put 22% of your portfolio into it.
9:12
So you're seeing the scale here. And I think this is what Nidig
9:17
is essentially saying by the term distribution, that it's not
9:22
so much about being the biggest asset manager in the world.
9:25
It's about how many people listen to you for your advice
9:30
and how much assets you are actually controlling and your
9:33
influence and your infrastructure and how easily
9:36
you can basically plug in Bitcoin and get Bitcoin to all
9:41
of these people. Now, that is the fundamental
9:44
difference from a BlackRock and a Charles Schwab.
9:48
You guys all know the story by now.
9:50
We've said it like five times in the last week, but almost
9:53
everyone and obviously not Bitcoiners, but when it comes to
9:57
a more traditional trad fi trading friendly platform like
10:02
Charles Schwab is the go to place for this.
10:04
So now that they are basically at a flip of a switch going to
10:08
add Bitcoin into their trading platforms, it's almost in some
10:14
respect the same exact thing that Jack Dorsey did with Block
10:17
when he just unleashed Bitcoin payments to every single Bitcoin
10:20
merchant. The number was somewhere around
10:22
4 million. We're seeing the same thing
10:25
happen, but on the trading side. Now obviously we are not
10:28
traders. We do not recommend trading, but
10:31
as you can tell, these clients want Bitcoin and they literally
10:35
just flipped the switch and now they can get it.
10:38
Now the end here is maybe where it confirms what they said in
10:45
the title, this slow grind higher and I and I didn't
10:47
highlight it, but within macro assets, performance has
10:50
obviously been mixed. Gold is essentially flat on the
10:53
week. Oil is decline reflecting some
10:56
easing in geopolitical risk premia.
10:58
Credit markets are stable, relatively stable with both
11:01
investment grade and high yield posting modest gains.
11:04
Rates move slightly lower with long duration treasuries up on
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the week, while real yields edge down marginally.
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That's just giving you a macro context.
11:12
Against this backdrop though coins relative strength suggests
11:15
continued incremental demand supported by both improving risk
11:19
sentiment and asset specific flows.
11:22
The magnitude of the move while constructive remains consistent
11:26
with a grind higher rather than a disorderly rally aligning with
11:31
broader indications of still cautious positioning.
11:34
So just to break that down, essentially in Bitcoin terms and
11:38
mimetic terms, it's essentially saying, look, you're not going
11:41
to see an Omega candle tomorrow. If that's what your thesis is
11:45
right now, if that's what your play is right now, that oh,
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tomorrow it's going to, you know, we're going to see 100K
11:51
candle. That's not what it's saying.
11:54
That's not what the data is showing us.
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That's not what the interest levels are coming from the
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institutions. Essentially, I think what we're
12:02
going to see is a more orderly, as they called grind higher,
12:06
which we have seen in the last couple of weeks.
12:08
Again, I showed you a trend line.
12:11
It held up pretty good. It's actually doing incredibly
12:14
well right now. The interesting part about this
12:18
is that we did see a pretty aggressive move this morning
12:23
going into the 7879 K range. And a lot of people are waiting
12:28
for a breakthrough of the 80K range.
12:31
And if we do see that either today or by the end of the week
12:35
and we see it with relatively strong volume, whether it's ETF
12:39
inflows or spot Bitcoin directly, it could fundamentally
12:45
change where we are right now. And that's where I'm going to
12:48
kind of lean into a little bit more of the fun tweets that
12:52
we're seeing, a little more of the Bitcoiners taking victory
12:55
laps. But before I get to that, I do
12:59
want to just show you the amount of Bitcoin shorts that were
13:03
liquidated. I have it here.
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Sorry, my, my, my browser just keeps keeps updating.
13:10
Here we go. There's the one.
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So this morning we saw $76,000,000 in Bitcoin leverage
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shorts liquidated in the last four hours and we got the
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$79,000 again. We've been seeing this play out
13:27
for the last couple of weeks that finally we're seeing the
13:31
leverage shorts get cleared out and it's not the leverage longs
13:34
getting cleared out. And historically what we usually
13:38
see is the market makers, first of all, they know the order
13:42
books, they know where all the liquidity is sitting.
13:45
They clear that all out so that we can start to register our
13:48
next moves up and this is where it starts to get a little fun.
13:53
OK, this is not necessarily memes, but pretty some funny
13:56
some funny tweets here we got Magoo.
13:59
The bears are sweating got to love to see it.
14:02
You got to love to see it. Here's checkmatey with a little
14:04
more on chain metrics, less of just trolling and he goes the
14:07
bears absolutely hate this rally.
14:09
I don't believe we have ever seen anything quite like it in
14:12
Bitcoin history and he is referencing a Bitcoin perpetual
14:16
futures funding rate. And as you can see, it's
14:20
absolutely lower than ever. The bears in disbelief.
14:24
It's wait, I saw I saw a Luke. But here we got Bram our boy
14:27
Grant Bram Eli 5 for the noobs, please, please, Sir and he goes
14:31
rolls are paying 6% interest rates to stay leverage short
14:34
corn. As we speak, they are paying
14:36
interest to be liquidated and short.
14:39
Oh man, love to see you. And then we have another one
14:42
from check man. He goes just to make a point and
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this is where I really wish Nico was here because we could kind
14:49
of make fun of him a little bit. Here we go just to make a point
14:52
for the bears who want to see 40K.
14:55
You may well up well end up right.
14:57
Hey, you may be right. It we may see some more price
15:01
action to the downside. I actually got a text this
15:04
morning from my friend is like any reason not to buy And I'm
15:06
like, well, I mean obviously always buy, but we could be, we
15:10
could still see a classic selling man go away scenario.
15:15
But on that term it does look like we're breaking out a little
15:18
bit. Anyways.
15:19
However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, the average
15:23
relative to 9 anchors a mix of technical on chain, trend, fast,
15:27
slow, etcetera. It is a quantile, I think
15:32
quantile of .4 event. And that's lower than thinking
15:37
that in 20 or yeah, 2011 Bitcoin was going to go to $2.00, which
15:41
is over here, which it in fact didn't do.
15:45
So just putting that in context in old and past cycles of where
15:50
we are. The boy Marty man quoting
15:54
checkmate. He's like, I like a hated rally.
15:57
I don't know how anyone could be bearish Bitcoin considering how
16:00
it's performed. Since the beginning of this war
16:02
in the Middle East, demand for a neutral and permissionless
16:05
monetary network controlled by no one has skyrocketed.
16:10
And and that is backed up by the idea that the institutions, they
16:15
want Bitcoin. I think they're seeing what
16:17
we're seeing. They're probably feeling the
16:19
pressure of like, man, this thing's getting a little bubbly
16:21
right now. It's getting a little frothy.
16:23
Maybe it's going to get away from us.
16:25
They have been in control for, I would argue probably over a year
16:30
at the very least six months now we're starting to see maybe
16:34
they're not going to be able to keep the price down as much as
16:37
they want. Marilyn Hoddle just confirming,
16:40
hey, sell and main go away might very well be cancelled this
16:44
year. Prepare appropriately for that
16:48
idea, which is kind of what the NYDIG report said.
16:53
Hey, we might not be seeing explosive price action here, but
16:57
we might be watching a slow grind higher.
17:00
As Bitcoin goes mainstream by the institutions, it starts to
17:05
really catch fire on Wall Street.
17:08
This could be the case here. We got another one we got Jesse
17:11
Myers update Bitcoin bounce out of the oversold rallying against
17:16
gold every time this has happened in bitcoin's history,
17:19
it was the start of A2 plus year bull right bull market bull run.
17:24
Sorry I'm speaking weird. You can see here we have it
17:27
actually went lower than we've seen in a very long time and now
17:31
we are rallying back up. So guys, I don't I it's a little
17:38
too early to call that we are completely out of the woods.
17:44
But the idea I think still remains the same that the
17:50
majority of people right now, especially and I, and I don't
17:53
mean to really, you know, pile on here, but especially led by
18:00
the likes of Ben Cohen. He, he got a lot, he's been
18:04
getting a lot of Flack over the weekend or the last couple of
18:07
days because he's been saying it's going to go up in April and
18:10
then it's going to drop in May. And he very well could be right.
18:13
So I don't, I don't want to come out here and really bash him
18:16
because I could be completely wrong.
18:18
He could be completely right. But we are starting to see that
18:22
it seems like the majority of people right now are really have
18:27
that in their mind. They really think that we're
18:31
going to go lower again. April's going to be a bear trap.
18:34
We're going to fall lower, you know, buy it lower in May.
18:37
It's not that complicated. And I did see a pretty funny
18:42
meme. Let me see if I can find it real
18:44
quick 'cause I didn't put it to my show notes, but I think a
18:47
meme would explain this better than than me trying to ramble
18:52
about what the meme is saying. But this is my exact thoughts
18:56
here when I pull this meme up for you guys.
19:00
This is this is what I'm starting to get the vibe of in
19:04
this idea. Here we go.
19:06
Here is the meme that is really top of mind for me.
19:12
Quote, I'm going to short AT84K and then log off until the
19:15
bottom at 40K in August. And it's the Buzz Lightyear meme
19:19
of all the Buzz Lightyears saying I'm such an individual.
19:23
I am so different. And a lot of people have been
19:26
saying that this is kind of, I think the general idea for most
19:31
of the bear case here. You know, again, I saw some
19:35
other interesting tweets that at first you're like, they're
19:39
trolling, right? And it was our boy Chuck, Matey.
19:42
He's like, wait, Bitcoins going up?
19:44
It's not October yet. What's going on here?
19:47
Everyone is thinking that the bottom of this bear market is
19:51
going to be until October. And yet, what we're seeing right
19:55
now is exactly what NYDIG has said in this report, a slow
19:58
grind higher. I don't know, I think I think
20:04
with the bears might be in disbelief.
20:06
Obviously I'm as bullish as anyone.
20:08
I am overly bullish. I know my bias.
20:12
I have 1/2 is glass full type mentality here.
20:17
But if I'd show you my lines here and I don't want to do TA
20:20
'cause I can probably guess you're already yelling at me
20:22
because we talking about price today.
20:24
But hey, there is other news. But I thought this is probably
20:28
the more fun news today is it feels good to get a little
20:31
bullish again. OK.
20:32
So I'm going to relish in the fact that we're a little bullish
20:35
today. But the breakthrough that we saw
20:38
the the movement that we saw this morning almost going to ADK
20:44
is a lot of signal here. If you believe in the idea that
20:49
watching the price does tell you a lot about what the market
20:53
thinks about Bitcoin, how the market is allocating capital.
20:57
I'm of the opinion, and I know a lot of people disagree with me
21:01
in the chat and on any other Bitcoin perspective that like
21:04
the price is the least interesting aspect of this.
21:07
I take more of AI guess classic Austrian economic perspective
21:13
that the price is the most interesting aspect because the
21:16
price is the most important signal into the market.
21:20
It tells you what people believe.
21:21
It tells you how people are allocating money.
21:24
It tells you, you know how you should be allocating your
21:27
capital, tells you where we're going to go.
21:31
And the breakthrough right now inside a full breakthrough,
21:33
obviously, I think there's still a little time.
21:36
It is a little premature on our celebration.
21:39
But if we get up to the ADK range and if we don't dump in
21:44
May couple of this, I don't think we're going to be in a
21:50
bear market till October and I maybe I just want that because I
21:56
I want Nico to be wrong on that. You know he called the top.
21:58
I don't want him to be right about the bottom either.
22:01
OK, we we got to we got to take a little W here, guys, we got to
22:05
we got to get a little win here. It's time.
22:08
It is time. I think it is time Opti give us
22:11
fun. OK, we're going to have a little
22:15
fun yes all right, you guys like the meme.
22:18
OK, the meme hit the meme hit let's go.
22:21
So look, I don't want to say it. I actually tweeted this morning
22:26
I'm like no, in all caps, nobody effing say it like nobody say it
22:32
guys. Let's let's not say it yet but I
22:38
but we're all thinking the same thing, right?
22:40
If you're bullish, we're all thinking the same thing.
22:42
We all want to say it, but I think we need to hold our breath
22:46
a little bit here and not start to congratulate ourselves of
22:50
exiting this bear market. Because the bears could very
22:54
well be right it. We could very well be in a bear
22:57
trap right now. But that could fundamentally
23:02
change. It could if we're dumping some
23:05
top teeth, talking price action. Damn rib boys.
23:09
No, no, we're not. No, we're not.
23:11
We're still above 7079 K. Well, actually, yeah, the one
23:16
minute chart does look a little brutal.
23:18
OK, The one minute chart, it's confirming what you're saying,
23:22
but we're still holding on, man. We are still holding on so we
23:26
made it No, no dude, wait, no, it's too early.
23:30
It's too early to say that it's too early.
23:33
This is the the big short moment like just don't dance guys,
23:39
let's not dance yet. Nobody say we're never going to
23:42
see X again. Nobody say this time is
23:46
different. OK, we're, we're not there yet.
23:48
We're not there yet. But it does start to make me
23:53
feel a little, a little bullish. It it, it really brings to mind
23:59
right now what I said in the opening of the hook that a lot
24:03
of people might be caught, you know, with their pants down.
24:07
They might be caught surprised here of what the next move is
24:11
going to be because the reigning sentiment for most people is
24:16
bear trap selling may go away. You know, this, this is this
24:20
rally is not going to make it. It's a it's a classic disbelief
24:23
moment for everyone. And I'm still in disbelief, as
24:27
you can tell. I want to be bullish.
24:29
I want to say that it's over. We made it.
24:33
But I'm even hesitant to say that.
24:36
All we know is, hey, is there really any reason right now why
24:41
you shouldn't be buying any more Bitcoin?
24:44
Not really unless you have a bunch of capital that's been
24:48
sitting on the sideline, unless you've been sitting in dollars
24:51
and you're trying to wait for like the perfect entry point and
24:55
you don't want to dump all of your capital, all of your money
24:59
in at this exact moment. Maybe it's like ADCA moment, but
25:05
also if we are actually not in the bear market as we thought it
25:12
was going to be, which is until October, you've already missed
25:15
about a 30, almost 40% move from the bottom.
25:19
It's really like 30 ish, but a lot of people are waiting until
25:23
8386 K and that's like a 40% move off the bottom.
25:27
Now, the good part about all this is you don't actually have
25:30
the time to market well, but I mean, time in the market beats
25:34
timing in the market. So you already know what I do.
25:37
I capitulate my feet out as quickly as possible.
25:43
He looks like he has 1000. No, no, dude, it's hot in here.
25:47
I had enough coffee. I'm excited.
25:49
I'm getting a little bullish. I like, I, I really, really want
25:53
to be like we dude, we made it. We're out of it.
25:56
We're not going to be going sideways till October, but I'm
25:59
I'm trying not to celebrate a little early, but where do you
26:04
buy the safety class from? I'm getting cooked all right.
26:07
I'm I can't look, I can't look at the chat.
26:08
I can't look at the chat right now.
26:10
I'm getting cooked. I don't know, guys.
26:13
Let me know in the chat what you guys are feeling.
26:15
Maybe it maybe we'll do a little sentiment, sentiment vibe here
26:18
in the chat on the commercial break so that I can see what you
26:23
guys are feeling here and maybe we'll chat about it a little
26:26
later. Anyways, for the rest of the
26:28
show, I actually have a few different data points here to
26:37
the idea of things going mainstream.
26:39
So there was a, a new clip on 7 Stephen Colbert.
26:42
I'm not I'm not even the biggest fan of his, but it's the Reddit
26:45
CEO and it, it just makes me feel like things like we're in a
26:51
we're in a different arena now in terms of how people are
26:54
accepting a Bitcoin. Obviously Stephen Colbert is a
26:56
comedian, so he's going to roast us and on the one hand, and also
27:01
proving that we are still early. I also I will have a couple of
27:05
updates about the wash confirmation hearing.
27:08
There is a new report about the clarity act where things stand.
27:12
I know I'm I'm tired of the clarity act too, but it's also
27:15
saying exactly what I'm saying. If it doesn't get passed at this
27:19
point by mid-May, it's probably cooked.
27:24
And then I'm the culture, an interesting thing is happening,
27:30
which is investors that are literally popular, that are
27:35
content creators that got popular for investing in real
27:40
estate and other stocks and equities.
27:42
They're making some interesting moves and they are starting to
27:47
allocate into Bitcoin, which might be a suggestion of a
27:52
greater trend that we have seen growing in the last couple of
27:57
years, which is Bitcoin has crossed out Rubicon into
28:01
people's minds that this is something you need to hold.
28:06
It's something that needs to be a part of your portfolio.
28:09
You can no longer ignore it. It's no longer just a Hail Mary
28:13
bet. This is what you need to have.
28:16
And so if you're not holding Bitcoin, if your financial
28:19
advisors are not recommending holding Bitcoin, you're really
28:23
missing out on what we believe to be the greatest generational
28:28
run wealth transfer that the world will ever see.
28:32
So it's a breakdown of today's show.
28:33
Let me hit the quick commercial break and I'll be right back.
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stampseed.com store. All right, whoa, uh oh, uh oh.
30:53
My software's bugging out on me. Bro.
30:55
We really need to update this. I they keep doing stuff on the
30:58
back and let me see if this better No Oh man, OK, whatever.
31:04
We'll just we'll just deal with it today anyways.
31:07
The current Bitcoin price is 78,810.
31:10
OK, so maybe the price did Dude, I am totally going to have to
31:17
take responsibility for this. I know I was saying I shouldn't
31:21
be saying these things and I think the algos picked up that I
31:25
was saying them. So that's that's on me you guys,
31:27
that's my bad. Anyway, the discount from all
31:29
time high is 37 1/2%. The market cap is at 1.58
31:34
trillion, 1.58 trillion. I guess maybe, maybe we if we
31:40
don't see 58 K again, at least we're seeing $1.58 trillion
31:46
market cap. The block height is 946,212.
31:51
And like I was saying, let me see this better work for me.
31:54
OK? Like I was saying, there's a
31:59
recent clip going around of the CEO of Reddit or Co founder,
32:06
sorry, Co founder of Reddit, Alexis Onanian and he's on
32:12
Stephen Colbert, which you know, used to be super popular, kind
32:17
of lost a lot of that popularity here.
32:19
And there's two things that I want to essentially highlight in
32:23
your mind before I play the clip is 1.
32:26
His explanation of what Bitcoin is and where it sits in the
32:30
broader picture. I think it's absolutely great.
32:32
Now, the flip side from the Colbert host angle is that he's
32:38
still trying to ridicule Bitcoin and this idea of Bitcoin.
32:41
So it just shows you we're still early, but the fact again that
32:47
this conversation is happening, I think might be the main signal
32:52
here, Overton windows shifting and all that good stuff.
32:55
So let's play the clip real quick and then we'll kind of
32:57
laugh about it. Tell me about initialized
33:01
capital and cryptocurrency and don't explain blockchain or I
33:05
will walk off this stage right now.
33:08
Wow, So what? Why cryptocurrency?
33:10
Why not currency? Why not money?
33:11
You know they people will spend it.
33:13
Yeah. Well, So what this does is
33:15
actually it's a fuel for a potentially new Internet and
33:19
things like Bitcoin, cryptocurrency are an
33:21
opportunity for us to have a store of value that is not bank,
33:24
not backed by a single country. And I think for a lot of us that
33:27
may seem kind of silly because we trust that the US is still
33:31
going to be a successful country in 10 or 20 years.
33:35
But if we. If we can, if we can make it
33:38
through the next three, I think we're going to be fine.
33:40
But there is there is a that's. Fine.
33:45
There's a, there's a very real need.
33:48
I'm actually, I'm Armenian. There was just a major actually
33:50
bloodless revolution in Armenia, which was fantastic.
33:53
But in so many states there is uncertainty about government and
33:55
money and people see their life savings disappear.
33:58
There is a very real value to having a currency that is
34:01
volatile as things like Bitcoin are, are still actually
34:04
potentially less volatile than some of these states that see
34:07
hyperinflation and everything else.
34:08
And, and we sort of take for granted the fact that we all
34:11
have bank accounts and we think that we can move this money here
34:13
and there. But for so many people in the
34:15
world to have actually the security of knowing that like
34:17
what is yours is yours, and because it is now digital could
34:19
be transferred with you wherever you're going, is actually a
34:22
pretty empowering thing. Good luck.
34:29
Good luck, man. You got to love it.
34:31
Got to love the skepticism guys. We're still early.
34:35
We're still early guys. Confirmed we are still early.
34:39
ANYWAYS, in context of this, I I looked up how many people still
34:43
actually watch Stephen Colbert's new show?
34:45
Roughly around 2.4 to 2.7 million people per episode.
34:52
So like as much as we try here to get to 2 million people per
34:58
episode, we don't even come close to that.
35:02
As you can see, the message is getting out there and maybe in
35:05
ways that they're even trying to ridicule us about this.
35:09
But again, put everything in context here.
35:13
We have institutional interest in the Bitcoin, We have a nation
35:18
state interest in the Bitcoin. We have obviously media talking
35:23
heads, mainstream media talking heads, people that historically
35:30
have been fixtures into the culture talking about Bitcoin.
35:33
We are starting to see that all the foundations are being built
35:37
out to fundamentally change how Bitcoin is being perceived by
35:42
other people. Now, in the past, I remember in
35:46
2017 when I completely fell in love with Bitcoin, was
35:50
completely obsessed with Bitcoin, we all had this idea
35:57
that what we're seeing today is where we were in 2017.
36:02
Obviously we were wrong though 2017 did have an incredible bull
36:07
run in terms of price. Sorry guys, I'm hearing weird
36:12
stuff in here. I thought it was like an animal
36:14
dying. In 2021, we also had this idea
36:21
that Bitcoin was a lot bigger than we probably were, and then
36:27
we had a lackluster bull run. And then in 2025, something
36:32
similar happened. We saw all the institutional
36:35
interest, or rather maybe the the opening of the gates for
36:39
institutions into Bitcoin, and we all expected an absolutely
36:42
huge bull run. Now, if you kind of put all
36:48
those different bull runs into context, you're starting to see
36:52
that we literally have taken every element of the last three
36:55
bull runs and now we have all those stepping stones combined
36:59
into what potentially is the end of this bear market.
37:03
We have everyone talking about Bitcoin.
37:05
We have Wall Street all freaking chomping at the bits trying to
37:09
get as much Bitcoin from you. We have on the verge of
37:14
potentially, you know, the rules to be on our side.
37:20
We haven't really dropped that much.
37:23
It's a little less volatile. We have Sailor doing things
37:27
we've never seen in the past. And yet everyone thinks like
37:33
it's over for us. And I I'm, I'm just looking at
37:36
all this. I'm like, no, I think I think
37:39
we're seeing the perfect setup here for something that we've we
37:44
thought was going to happen in the past.
37:46
And by the kind of mocking nature of Stephen, Stephen
37:50
Colbert, it just makes me know that one, I think in terms of
37:57
people understanding what Bitcoin is, we are still early.
38:00
And then two, another thing that I've been saying for a lot of
38:03
times, lot of lot of times on this episode is that when
38:08
Bitcoin does hopefully what I think it's going to do in this
38:12
next bull run, everyone's going to come out and be like, why
38:16
didn't you guys tell us more? Why didn't you guys yell at us
38:19
more about this Bitcoin thing? You guys are greedy hoarders.
38:24
You know, there's going to be some negative press.
38:26
There might be some people that are a little more humble about
38:29
it. And then on just the more
38:33
extreme side, I think we're going to get to the point very
38:37
soon where all the people that hated Bitcoin use Bitcoin
38:42
without them even knowing that they're using Bitcoin.
38:44
And that's when it fundamentally shifts and things are just
38:47
completely different. Obviously, we don't know the
38:49
timeline on this. It could be few years from now,
38:52
could be 5-10 years from now. Though I do actually kind of
38:56
agree with one thing that Stephen Colbert said.
38:59
You know, if we do get through the next three years here, we're
39:04
good to go. And not, I'm not saying that
39:06
Bitcoin, the network's going to die.
39:07
I'm just saying if we can skirt by a hair some form of a global
39:12
recession, I think we're all going to be very happy.
39:16
You're going to be very happy that you are obsessed with
39:19
Bitcoin, that you are living like an Amish person, that
39:23
you're eating ramen, that you're stacking stats, that you're
39:28
obsessed with this thing. I, I think it's going to pay
39:30
off. But hey, I've been wrong on my
39:32
timing before. But I don't know, man, it's
39:36
starting to feel, it's starting to feel very good.
39:39
It's starting to feel like things are definitely going our
39:43
way, guys. Is this what winning feels like?
39:47
Guys, I am waving the early flag, but I'm trying not to.
39:51
I'm trying not to. I really am trying not to.
39:54
But man, starting to get a little bullish.
39:59
That's because my, my TA astrology's just been on point,
40:02
but Bitcoin profits were ignored.
40:08
True. All right, guys, let's keep it
40:10
moving. We're going to give you a couple
40:11
of updates from the confirmation hearing yesterday for the new
40:14
Fed chair. And then Alex Thorne for Galaxy
40:18
Research dropped a full breakdown of where we currently
40:21
stand on the Clarity Act. And I'm, I'm going to be honest
40:23
with you guys. I'm extremely tired of talking
40:26
about this. But this is obviously kind of
40:30
the the big conversation, at least coming from Capitol Hill
40:34
in Washington, DC And let's just see if it happens or I'll be
40:42
right back. I want to give a shout out to
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out the camera. OK, OK.
42:41
All right. So as I was telling you guys
42:43
yesterday, actually like pretty much what right when we were on
42:48
the show, the congressional hearing for Fed chair
42:53
confirmation was happening. I played you guys to Senator
42:56
Lummis back and forth with him where he basically said, you
43:00
know, digital assets are already a part of the fabric of the
43:03
financial system. But obviously since we're live
43:06
on the show, I didn't have a full breakdown of where we
43:09
stand. And I guess for a lot of bit
43:11
corners, you probably don't really care about what's going
43:14
on with the Fed. And I don't really blame you.
43:15
But there is some interesting developments or rather some
43:19
interesting statements that he said.
43:22
And also there was some interesting kind of backlash
43:25
from a lot of people. So I'm just going to highlight a
43:28
few Pee Aw, man, it's happening again.
43:30
Anyways, we have Eleanor Terrett, of course, from Crypto
43:34
America, and she goes borsh on to banking.
43:36
Politics of no place, not just in monetary policy, but in
43:39
supervision and regulation. If central bankers should stand
43:42
for anything, it's to resist fads, resist trends, call balls
43:45
and strikes. And that's exactly what I would
43:48
intend to do. Now, obviously this might be
43:51
like a very benign statement, but if the new Fed just
43:58
literally called balls and strikes, that would be
44:00
fundamentally different than what we've seen in the past.
44:04
So that would be pretty huge. Here we got another statement,
44:09
Warsh telling or just committed to Senator Bernie Moreno that he
44:13
won't have the Fed move towards a CBDC if he's confirmed and
44:17
it's within his power as chairman to do so.
44:19
He also said he agrees that the Fed does not have the right to
44:22
issue ACBDC and it would be a bad policy choice.
44:25
So again, doubling down on no CBDC in the US obviously a good
44:30
thing. And there's actually a very
44:32
interesting trend that we're seeing from my boy bass layer
44:37
Fernando. He dropped this tweet from his
44:41
perception Bitcoin perception account and oh wait, actually
44:46
wrong 1. And I think this is some very
44:51
interesting perspective in the context of what we saw.
44:54
Three regulatory signals in 48 hours that nobody connected. 39
44:58
European financial institutions demanded emergency fast track
45:01
for blockchain pilots. The UK published its stable coin
45:04
payments framework. Bank of Korea's new governor
45:07
pushed CBDC's and deliberately skipped stablecoins.
45:10
The read Europe is pushing for speed, the UK is building
45:13
payment rails, and Korea chose the government controlled path.
45:17
Same Tech, 3 completely different strategies all
45:19
announced in the same same week. Now add the 4th one from wash
45:26
the new Fed chair or you know, Fed chair nominee basically said
45:31
like no, no CBDC. Which you could argue that you
45:36
know, something that is pegged to the dollar could potentially
45:41
be that, but you already know you already know what I'm
45:43
saying. Anyways, here is kind of a
45:46
summary of it. Kevin Walsh just laid out his
45:49
stance on the Fed 1 Cost of living is a top issue right now.
45:53
Well, of course he can say this now, but they're probably going
45:56
to print a lot of money. Actually they, they, we, we are
46:00
starting to see QE is happening currently as we speak with
46:03
Treasury buybacks. So the cost of living is
46:07
probably going to go up anyways. Next, the Fed has made policy
46:10
errors and, quote, lost its way. I, I guess I could agree with
46:16
that. I, I could also make the point
46:17
that this is what it was meant to do since its creation in
46:21
1913. But I digress #3 calls for
46:24
fundamental policy reforms. Says he will be independent of
46:27
Donald Trump. That was probably Cap says
46:30
presidents usually push for lower rates.
46:32
He I think he said he wants lower rates too, doesn't believe
46:36
in forward guidance, says inflation data being used is
46:39
imperfect, which I totally agree with that claims tariffs are not
46:43
the main driver of inflation. So interesting.
46:46
Interesting takes. Where'd my oh, I deleted it.
46:52
Sorry guys. I'm pivoting over to the Clarity
46:57
Act here, since, you know, we're talking to what the politicians
47:02
want. Here's galaxy.com, and this was
47:08
published this morning. Clarity Act update, final push
47:11
ahead. The odds of passage this year
47:14
are roughly 5050. Guys, did I, did I not basically
47:21
say this? Actually, I've, I've been more
47:23
bearish. I'm like, it's probably not
47:24
going to happen anyways. Uncertainty stems not from any
47:27
single issue, but from the number of unresolved questions
47:30
that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure.
47:35
With time starting to run out on the 119th Congress, Congress's
47:39
calendar comprehensive crypto market structure legislation is
47:43
nearing the end game stage of course declared.
47:46
The act passed the House in July of 2025 with strong bipartisan
47:51
support and has been the subject of intensive Senate negotiations
47:55
since January. The Senate Banking House and
47:58
Urban Affairs Committee is expected to announce a markup
48:01
hearing this week, likely for the last week of April.
48:05
So remember what they said you know, let's Fact Check here.
48:09
The prevailing narrative was we we're going to get the markup by
48:15
Easter and the bill's going to get passed by the end of April.
48:18
While it seems like we might get the markup bill by the end of
48:22
April, we'll see anyways. Three key issues remain
48:28
unresolved, according to Chairman Tim Scott.
48:31
Stablecoin yield language, D5 provisions and securing all
48:34
Republican votes on the committee.
48:37
Several additional issues including the blockchain
48:39
regulatory certainty acts, treatments of non custodial
48:41
software developers, ethics provisions related to government
48:44
officials, crypto holdings and SEC related concerns also remain
48:48
live and could complicate the path forward.
48:52
It's, it's not, it's not looking so hot guys.
48:56
Anyways, in our view, the odds of clarity being signed into law
48:59
in 2026 are roughly 5050 and possibly lower, though others
49:03
that Galaxy are more optimistic. The uncertainty stems not from
49:06
again, any single issues, but unresolved questions.
49:11
I think there was a quote in here, maybe maybe it's from the
49:15
Twitter post, but it basically said something on the lines of
49:20
if this doesn't happen by mid-May, it's probably not going
49:24
to happen at all, which is something that I have been
49:28
relating to you guys. And I'm not even, you know, that
49:32
political to, to be completely honest with you.
49:36
But you know, check out the headline importance of passing
49:39
clarity before midterms. We've been on this for a minute.
49:43
I know there is a lot of optimism that this will pass,
49:46
and maybe not so much about what's in the Clarity Act, but
49:49
the fact that once it passes, capital will flow, start to flow
49:52
back into Bitcoin from these big institutions.
49:56
But I think everyone's starting to realize that the clock is
50:02
ticking. It it is, you know, the 11th
50:06
hour here, maybe the 10th hour. How?
50:09
I don't know. I don't know how we can really
50:10
quantify that per SE, but it just, it keeps getting pushed
50:16
back guys. And now I think everyone's
50:20
coming to the realization that if this does continue to be
50:24
delayed, if we, if this, if we don't see this markup structure
50:29
bill next week for the last week of April, I'm I'm going to
50:36
pretty much drop my I'm I'm blanking on the word my
50:44
expectation of the clarity Act passing to damn near 0.
50:49
It's probably not going to pass. So if a lot of people are
50:54
waiting for the clarity Act to pass to start to allocate
50:57
capital, we might, we dude, we might be seeing a selling man go
51:03
away scenario. It's it's over, boys.
51:08
Nothing ever happens. It's over.
51:11
Here we go. Let's see.
51:14
It says Senate Banking Committee was widely expected to announce
51:18
this week that it's scheduling A markup hearing for the last week
51:21
of April. However, key committee member
51:23
who has been leading negotiations on the stable corn
51:26
rewards said Monday that the committee should wait until May
51:30
before scheduling A markup. OK, so that's, that's where I
51:34
saw it. I couldn't remember where, but
51:37
so we're not even going to get the markup by the end of April.
51:40
It's probably going to be in May again.
51:44
Once a markup is scheduled, the committee must debate and vote
51:47
on amendment before advancing the bill.
51:50
A floor vote requires not just 60 votes to invoke cloture, but
51:53
also time for debate and amendment votes.
51:56
We can, which can take a week or more.
51:59
Here we go. Finally someone says it.
52:02
Someone finally says it. The Senate's working calendar
52:05
between now and the August recess is limited and contested
52:10
Chambers in session through the end of April, then breaks until
52:13
May 11th, works May 11th through the 22nd, works three weeks each
52:17
in June and July with a two week recess around July 4th, and
52:21
works the first week of August before departing for A5 week
52:25
recess beginning August 10th. Within that window, Clarity must
52:30
compete for floor time with several major items, the ongoing
52:35
Iran military authorization debate, which has already
52:38
consumed significant floor time and could escalate
52:41
unpredictably, the unresolved DHS funding standoff, and a
52:45
steady stream of judicial and executive nominations.
52:49
Gotta love this breakdown. Finally someone says it.
52:52
So you heard the timeline there guys.
52:55
That's why I've been extremely bearish on this passing because
53:01
and once they go on recess, they're going to come back and
53:04
it's going to be the midterms. They're going to ramp up the
53:08
midterms. That's going to be all the
53:10
conversation. Crypto, Bitcoin, whatever you
53:14
want to call it is going to get thrown out the window.
53:17
I think the even even if Republicans are able to maintain
53:21
their position, they're not going to talk about it for the
53:25
rest of the year because, you know, they got to make sure that
53:28
they, they maintain their seats. So there's a timeline.
53:33
Not bullish on it. It's probably cooked, but what
53:39
can we expect from Washington DCI suppose at this point
53:43
anyways, we're going to, we're going to have a little lighter
53:45
mood here. And you guys might not
53:48
necessarily like this one. It, it is Bitcoin and it is
53:51
bullish in terms of the, the cultural zeitgeist, what the
53:54
culture thinks about Bitcoin. But I can already hear you guys
53:59
saying like, who cares about this guy?
54:00
But I think it's, it's a, it's a data point on how the average
54:05
person thinks about Bitcoin and it's fundamentally shifted.
54:10
You know, as Nico used to always say, the Overton window, it's
54:13
all about shifting the Overton window.
54:15
Opti, you're saying too much crazy stuff.
54:17
Don't scare them. Don't break the Overton window.
54:20
We want to shift the Overton window.
54:22
Well, maybe Nico is right and and the Overton window has
54:25
finally shifted in our direction and a lot of people are starting
54:28
to wake up to the fact that Bitcoin isn't going away.
54:32
It might in fact be the best thing to invest in or hold.
54:37
Might be the best ass to hold, might be the best money to hold.
54:39
You probably want to allocate a little more to it than you
54:43
already do if you're not already 150% triple maxi like Sailor
54:47
says or whatever it was. But I do like this guy's podcast
54:52
and he built his brand, his media company on the idea of
54:59
being a sound financial advisor, a a sound financial diversifier.
55:07
And now we're starting to see that Bitcoin is a part of that
55:10
conversation. So I'll be right back and we
55:13
will chat about it. I want to give a shout out to
55:16
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Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
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15% off anything on the store. Hey, guys, this one's going to
56:54
be fun for at least for me personally, because obviously I
56:57
make media and one of the things that we do in fact do here on
57:03
Simply Bitcoin is we do look at everyone that makes content.
57:09
We, we don't necessarily just compare ourselves to other
57:13
Bitcoin content creators. We, we like to think bigger here
57:16
and, and look at what the very popular content creators are
57:20
doing. And of course, maybe we can
57:22
learn from something, learn a little bit from them because
57:25
hey, they're successful. They're they know what they're
57:28
doing here. And I saw this post, it was
57:32
actually kind of broken last week.
57:35
And it is Graham Steffen. And if you don't know him, he
57:38
has the Iced Coffee Hour podcast with his partner.
57:41
I forget what his partner's name is.
57:43
And he's more of like the conservative guy on the show
57:48
where he like invest everything. He's, I don't want to say
57:51
stingy, but he's very frugal with his money.
57:54
It's got to be based on like a mathematical equation of how
57:58
much money you spend. It's like it's, it's big brain
58:01
stuff here, right? And a lot of the interviews that
58:04
they do on their channel, and of course, they got 1.57 million
58:09
subscribers. Their their shows get millions
58:11
of views here. His Twitter account isn't as big
58:14
as the YouTube account. It's it's significant size 211
58:18
K. So maybe not everyone that saw
58:21
this post or his sub stack is the same amount of people that
58:26
watched his stuff on YouTube. But I'm I'm going to suspect
58:30
'cause I don't watch every episode but I'm going to suspect
58:32
that he has or will be making a video about this and what his
58:36
reasonings are. But I'm going to give you the
58:38
TLDR here. I'm not going to read the whole
58:40
thing 'cause it's extremely long, but there is a fundamental
58:43
shift here. And I actually have this
58:46
conversation with my friend constantly.
58:48
He's always like I'm, you know, I'm making a, making a lot of
58:50
money. I just got to make a little more
58:52
money. I do, I want to make sure I get
58:54
a couple of real estate investments, you know,
58:56
investment properties so I can get my cash flow, bro.
58:59
And I, I'm just like, cool, man, do what you want to do, man.
59:04
Just he's a, he's a bitcoiner. He knows Bitcoin, but he's, he's
59:07
got this. I need the cash flow from the
59:09
real estate mentality still in his head.
59:13
And I'm like, hey, man, I'm happy for you, you know, and
59:16
man, what, what can I tell you, man, just like do what you want
59:19
to do, bro. He already knows what I'm going
59:21
to say. I'm like, you should just buy,
59:22
you should take all that money and buy Bitcoin, bro.
59:24
But you know, I'm a cash flow. Anyways, here's Graham Stephen's
59:28
tweet and he goes Last week I made a post about selling my
59:32
entire real estate portfolio and it went absolutely viral with
59:35
over 3 million views. But a lot of people ask me, if
59:39
you're exiting real estate, where is that money actually
59:41
going? Again, he says it's a fair
59:44
question. For over a decade, his whole
59:46
entire identity as an investor was tied to real estate and
59:50
rental properties. But this is this mindset that
59:53
built my initial initial wealth isn't serving me in 2024.
59:58
I want to reiterate that. But this mindset of basically
1:00:02
being a real estate investor that built his initial wealth
1:00:06
isn't serving me in 2026. Between insurance cost doubling
1:00:11
and the legal land stake becoming a nightmare, the math
1:00:15
no longer works. I repeat, the math no longer
1:00:19
works. So here's this.
1:00:22
Here is the mindset I'm using for the great rotation.
1:00:25
I'm prioritizing simplicity over prestige and complexity.
1:00:31
Look, I know I sound very stupid with this valley girl accent,
1:00:36
but I be telling you guys the same thing every single day.
1:00:41
You got to risk it for the biscuit.
1:00:43
The old paradigms don't work in today's world.
1:00:48
If you want to be successful, you cannot do what people of the
1:00:53
past, even 10 years ago, were doing.
1:00:57
And there's a lot of people that are financial gurus that are
1:01:02
essentially telling you a playbook that no longer works.
1:01:05
The math doesn't math anymore. And here we have a very popular
1:01:09
young kid. I think he's like 30 something,
1:01:13
maybe 35 or something like that. I forget.
1:01:15
I, I'm not the, I don't watch all of his content.
1:01:17
I'm, I'm just like more vaguely aware of who he is.
1:01:20
I've caught some, some episodes. I think it, they're really
1:01:23
production's really great. They're really good.
1:01:26
They're also very conservative in their investment kind of
1:01:30
advice. But even them are starting to
1:01:34
realize that what has worked in the past is no longer working it
1:01:38
it doesn't work today, it's not serving you in 2026.
1:01:42
Anyways, I'm not going to read the whole thing.
1:01:44
If you want to find this, you can read this.
1:01:46
But he said I've just posted the complete line by line breakdown
1:01:50
of my new 2026 portfolio on sub SEC.
1:01:52
I'm covering exactly how I'm allocating the real estate
1:01:55
proceeds, my increase Bitcoin position, again, increased
1:02:00
Bitcoin position and even the collectibles that are keeping
1:02:03
pace with the S&P 500. He's going to drop the link.
1:02:07
So here is the blurb here for the Bitcoin perspective on why
1:02:15
he's increasing his Bitcoin portfolio.
1:02:17
Again, he's selling his real estate because it's not serving
1:02:23
him. He is going to go into some
1:02:24
stocks and equities and he's increasing his Bitcoin
1:02:27
perspective. So I'm going to read this for
1:02:29
you guys. And it goes Bitcoin and the
1:02:32
institutional shift. One of the biggest opportunities
1:02:35
for 2026 is an asset I previously kept as a tiny
1:02:39
position. Bitcoin.
1:02:41
All right, before you set your mind against it, hear me out.
1:02:45
My thesis used to be quote. If it goes to 0, my life doesn't
1:02:48
change. If it works out, I retire my
1:02:51
bloodline. Honestly, Chad, super Chad.
1:02:54
Anyways, while Bitcoin is down significantly from its peak, it
1:02:57
has shown remarkable resilience in 2026.
1:03:01
As institutional participation grows through ETFs, the
1:03:04
catastrophic drawdown narrative is beginning to shift.
1:03:08
Analysts are now arguing that Bitcoin is functioning more as a
1:03:11
portfolio efficiency tool than a speculative bet.
1:03:15
With national debts climbing and governments running massive
1:03:18
deficits, the asymmetric upside of Bitcoin is becoming too
1:03:21
compelling to ignore. I look at it as a probability
1:03:25
play. There may be a 50% chance it
1:03:28
becomes worthless, but there's a 50% chance it hits $250,000 in
1:03:32
the next 5 years. If that was a bet in Las Vegas I
1:03:35
would take it. But that's exactly how I would
1:03:37
treat it too, as a high risk asymmetric bet where I would
1:03:41
allocate my money more cautiously.
1:03:43
Given that inflows have turned positive for the first time
1:03:46
since October 2025, I'm increasing my allocation.
1:03:49
It's better to take a calculated risk on a volatile asset than to
1:03:53
hold 0 exposure to the fastest growing institutional asset
1:03:56
class of the decade. I got to give him some horns for
1:04:01
that one. So you can tell he's not full
1:04:04
blown Bitcoin maxi yet. And I really don't expect him to
1:04:08
be that. But remember, this is called
1:04:10
this segment in particular is the culture and part of what I
1:04:16
like to do, and it's obviously because it's my job.
1:04:20
But I, I look around at what's becoming popular in the culture
1:04:25
in, in the, in the zeitgeist, in the collective consciousness of
1:04:30
just the average person. I, I look at who they're
1:04:33
listening to, I watch what they're doing, and then I start
1:04:39
to see the shifts of what are they starting to recommend.
1:04:43
And like I said in the beginning of the show, we're getting to
1:04:47
the point now where the big kind of influential people right now
1:04:52
are starting to very slowly pepper the Bitcoin thesis, the
1:04:57
Bitcoin narrative. He's literally selling his real
1:05:00
estate that he built his wealth on.
1:05:02
And he's like, look, I'm looking at the landscape.
1:05:05
I'm going to increase my Bitcoin position because it's actually
1:05:08
probably a really good bet right now.
1:05:11
And I want to bring that again in the context of what we saw
1:05:14
yesterday from the Charles Schwab video, the educational
1:05:17
video where they're using the very same kind of rhetoric that
1:05:23
you just need to adjust your risk here.
1:05:25
That depending on your risk tolerance, depending on how much
1:05:29
risk you want to take, this is how much you should allocate
1:05:33
your big or your portfolio. Again, that's a different
1:05:36
conversation of don't take any risk here.
1:05:39
You know, stay in the 6040 portfolio that's been working
1:05:42
forever to now actually, maybe you need to add a little bit
1:05:46
because of the math just works out a little better.
1:05:50
So I'm ranting here just to essentially say that what has
1:05:54
worked in the past no longer works today.
1:05:59
And even in his initial post, you know, simplicity over
1:06:04
complexity, it still blows my mind that for almost everyone
1:06:13
just buying Bitcoin, taking into self custody is the simplest
1:06:18
process ever on paper. It's like literally just sell
1:06:21
your dollars for Bitcoin, hold that Bitcoin for a long term,
1:06:25
make sure you secure it. And that is the easiest and best
1:06:29
thing you can be doing with your money.
1:06:31
And then everyone looks at you or mocks you like Stephen
1:06:34
Colbert and they're like, you're an idiot.
1:06:37
What are you doing? What are you doing with magic
1:06:39
Internet coins and magic Internet friends?
1:06:42
And why are you so obsessed with this thing?
1:06:46
We don't know who created it. And you can't even touch it.
1:06:50
It's not even real, bro. And you're just like, all right,
1:06:54
Hey, you'll it's literally like, what's that Back to the Future
1:07:00
meme? You know, maybe I'm too early,
1:07:02
but your children will love it. Where What?
1:07:06
Dude? I'm starting to feel it.
1:07:08
I'm starting, I'm starting to feel the culture, maybe the
1:07:11
collective consciousness raising a little bit.
1:07:13
They're starting to wake up, guys.
1:07:16
They are starting to wake up. This is what winning feels like.
1:07:20
We've been seeing the signs and I've been very early on this
1:07:23
idea of Bitcoin, not not like patting my back on the head in
1:07:28
that statement, but maybe I was a little too early to the idea
1:07:31
that Bitcoin is crossing the mainstream Rubicon.
1:07:35
You know, we're we're going from the what what is it early
1:07:41
adopters into the early majority and we don't know how long that
1:07:46
takes. But as you see there, the
1:07:48
writing's on the wall there. You're starting to see signs
1:07:51
from every corner of the culture of society that they are
1:07:56
starting to look at Bitcoin as a more serious thing.
1:08:00
Obviously everyone goes through their stages where they look at
1:08:03
Bitcoin as an investment. Maybe it's a, you know, an
1:08:05
asymmetric bet. I think even us bit corners kind
1:08:08
of take that initial view like, well, you know, it's just a good
1:08:12
bet. Like it's either going to 0 or
1:08:15
it's going to a million. It's like, I'll take that bet.
1:08:19
And then you kind of put more of your net worth into Bitcoin.
1:08:22
And then eventually the price starts running and you start to
1:08:26
realize, wait, I need to put as much of whatever I can into
1:08:31
Bitcoin because it's going to the moon.
1:08:35
And then the cycle plays out all over again and you're like,
1:08:37
damn, I shouldn't have bought the top, but I'm going to sell
1:08:40
all my chairs on the way down so I can accumulate this.
1:08:43
And then you're hooked and it's over.
1:08:44
And you're you're here with us hanging out.
1:08:47
You're making fun of Opti and Nico every single day.
1:08:51
You're yelling at me to be correct about everything.
1:08:56
And we're just waiting for the world to wake up.
1:09:02
I don't want to say it. I'm not going to say it to you
1:09:04
guys, OK? We're not going to say it, but
1:09:08
I'm seeing the signs, guys. I'm starting to see the signs.
1:09:12
I had to. I had to hide the chat.
1:09:14
You guys were distracting me. Get him off the stage.
1:09:16
All right, All right. OK.
1:09:18
All right, All right. I got the hook.
1:09:20
I got the tomatoes. I got.
1:09:26
I got. Yeah.
1:09:27
I mean, Foxy, I I kind of, I kind of agree with that.
1:09:36
He's cooked. Fox.
1:09:38
You don't say. All right, guys.
1:09:39
Anyways, yeah, I love the chat. OK, OK.
1:09:45
All right. OK.
1:09:48
That's it for today, guys. I've ranted enough, you know,
1:09:52
ranted for an hour and 10 minutes.
1:09:56
Think I'm losing the plot. It's like 100° in here down in
1:10:00
South Florida. My safety goggles are getting
1:10:03
fogged up. I ain't got nothing left for you
1:10:07
guys. Nico should be here tomorrow.
1:10:11
I, I really want him to be here tomorrow because I want us to
1:10:14
debate something. But anyways, on that note, have
1:10:19
a good rest of your day. What do I always say?
1:10:21
Have a good rest of your day. Get some sun, get a workout in,
1:10:26
eat some good food, call your loved ones, put down, put down
1:10:32
the phone for a little bit. And of course, the most
1:10:37
important thing, stack some Bitcoin.
1:10:40
I'll see you guys tomorrow for another show.
1:10:44
Should have stayed in Texas, bro.
1:10:45
I thought Texas was hot. Nah, man, the humidity down here
1:10:51
is crazy. You guys is I don't know how
1:10:55
people live in a swamp. I it makes no sense.
1:10:58
No wonder if Florida man's a lunatic.
1:11:00
Now it, now it all it. Now it's all clicking.
1:11:03
That's why you hear about Florida, Man.
1:11:05
Not just because it's a swamp person, because living in the
1:11:08
swamp makes you lose your mind. OK, I'll see you guys tomorrow.
1:11:16
Have a good rest of your day. This is your boy AFTI, and this
1:11:21
has been simply Bitcoin. Live until tomorrow.
1:11:27
Peace out. Today's episode was brought to
1:11:30
you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
1:11:33
mission to enable financial independence.