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The Favorites - NFL Conference Championships Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
0:12
Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
0:20
Speaker 1: our Tuesday Conference Championship episode. We will break down the
0:24
Speaker 1: lines for the AFC and NFC conference title games. We
0:28
Speaker 1: will discuss our exec decision and ours Simon says, do
0:32
Speaker 1: not fret. On Thursday. We will have the usual menu,
0:36
Speaker 1: sharp calls, foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. Plus
0:41
Speaker 1: we will get into some futures talk with the remaining teams.
0:46
Speaker 1: The four remaining teams and their Super Bowl odds as
0:50
Speaker 1: they stand right now, how do we want to play
0:52
Speaker 1: those heading into Conference Championship weekend. Obviously, we're going to
0:56
Speaker 1: believe there's some value there. You want to get ahead
0:58
Speaker 1: of that. We're also going to have a lot of
1:00
Speaker 1: conversations about hedging strategies. Before the season began, Simon and
1:05
Speaker 1: I both gave out Super Bowl matchup plays. Simon actually
1:10
Speaker 1: gave out a Super Bowl matchup with the winner. Both
1:14
Speaker 1: of those were at very long odds. Both of those
1:18
Speaker 1: bets from Simon and I are still alive. So we
1:21
Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit about our hedging strategy
1:24
Speaker 1: heading into this weekend. I would bet that a lot
1:26
Speaker 1: of people have some kind of matchups in play that
1:30
Speaker 1: certainly involved potentially the Bills the Eagles. The Bills are
1:35
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Eagles, so good opportunity to run
1:38
Speaker 1: through some of the strategies on Thursday Live from Her
1:44
Speaker 1: Tell Me John Home Studios. I'm joined as always by
1:48
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike Capadre might beft professional
1:51
Speaker 1: better Simon hunt at Also I'm in Chad.
1:56
Speaker 2: Life is good sitting here my Tommy John sweatpants. My
2:00
Speaker 2: Eagles team in the conference finals. Damn, Like Man Mitchell
2:03
Speaker 2: saying before the show, you just there's a pep in
2:05
Speaker 2: your step one of the sport you love. Your team
2:07
Speaker 2: has one game away, one game away from super Bowl.
2:10
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's been a fun two days so far
2:14
Speaker 2: since the Eagles won.
2:15
Speaker 1: Listen, there's a pep in your step when your team
2:17
Speaker 1: is a game away from the super Bowl. The way
2:19
Speaker 1: you feel, the way Matt Mitchell feels. Matt Mitchell. If
2:22
Speaker 1: people don't know Matt Mitchell, every year during the playoffs
2:27
Speaker 1: promises his entire neighborhood free ice cream if the Bills
2:34
Speaker 1: win a playoff game. So naturally, he spent yesterday going
2:38
Speaker 1: to the grocery store in his entire bills get up
2:41
Speaker 1: his bills, poncho. He sent us a picture and then
2:44
Speaker 1: he buys pints of Ben and Jerry's and just passed
2:48
Speaker 1: it around the neighborhood. It was minus twenty degrees in
2:52
Speaker 1: Milwaukee yesterday. He made his son do it, and it
2:56
Speaker 1: was lovely the way he sort of built some character
3:00
Speaker 1: with his son walking around the neighborhood headter and not
3:03
Speaker 1: Ice screaming. Now he's just got the entire neighborhood of
3:05
Speaker 1: Packers fans screaming, go bills. You know what else? You
3:10
Speaker 1: get a little pep in your step when you're moribund
3:17
Speaker 1: historically crappy, bad decision making, poorly run franchise pulls the
3:24
Speaker 1: hottest head coaching prospect of the past three years.
3:28
Speaker 2: We got him, Jeed, We got him, got him, and.
3:32
Speaker 1: He walks into the building and there's standing ovation from
3:37
Speaker 1: all across Hallis Hall, Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams. This time
3:43
Speaker 1: next year, we're probably gonna be talking about Caleb Williams
3:47
Speaker 1: and Jayden Daniels in the NFC title game, and how
3:50
Speaker 1: amazing it's going to be to see these guys playing
3:53
Speaker 1: for the next decade against each other. Am I right?
3:57
Speaker 2: I was so happy for you because that was we talked.
4:00
Speaker 2: He felt like a months ago. Now that's how long
4:02
Speaker 2: this playoffs have felt the NFL season. But that was
4:05
Speaker 2: the guy they had to get, that was in the division.
4:08
Speaker 2: He knows the best team in your division's offense in
4:11
Speaker 2: and out. Like, if there's one guy that has the
4:13
Speaker 2: secrets how to stop Detroit Lions offense, he's the guy.
4:16
Speaker 2: And then you think about the pairing of him offensive
4:19
Speaker 2: mind with Caleb Williams, It's it's, I mean, how can
4:23
Speaker 2: you not be over the moon at this point. I
4:25
Speaker 2: mean I could be big between about the money, like, oh,
4:27
Speaker 2: I think they're overpaying them thirteen million. Who cares this
4:31
Speaker 2: organization never spends the money. Yeah, it's I'm just so happy.
4:34
Speaker 2: Like the Bears owner, who are notoriously cheap, they put
4:37
Speaker 2: the money up, they went and got the guy, and yeah,
4:41
Speaker 2: it literally I love every move he's already made so
4:44
Speaker 2: far too, Like his hirings Dennis Allen for your defense,
4:47
Speaker 2: I know people are like, oh, he's such a shitty
4:49
Speaker 2: head coach. This guy was a huge reason that Saints
4:52
Speaker 2: defense had a huge turnaround when he went there, Like, again,
4:55
Speaker 2: if you're a Bears fan, you're you're absolutely killing this
4:58
Speaker 2: offseason already, and I'm excited to see what happens here
5:01
Speaker 2: going forward because you already know that. You know, don't
5:04
Speaker 2: just go sign a bunch of big weapons, Go get
5:06
Speaker 2: that offensive line attack it. That's that's the key. The
5:09
Speaker 2: rest of the for me, for the Bears, the rest
5:11
Speaker 2: of this offseason addressed the offensive line. So yeah, I mean,
5:14
Speaker 2: home run. Got got to give tons of credit to
5:16
Speaker 2: the front, front, ownership, everybody that runs the Bears right now,
5:19
Speaker 2: because I mean, you like to shoot on them because
5:21
Speaker 2: how shitty they've been. But even you were just like,
5:23
Speaker 2: holy shit, we got them.
5:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm floored. I was convinced we were getting Brian
5:29
Speaker 1: Flores or Mike McCarthy or Cliff Kings Bear.
5:31
Speaker 2: Yeah.
5:34
Speaker 1: It's also Look, it's also interesting nobody was right, none
5:39
Speaker 1: of the reporting.
5:40
Speaker 2: Schefty, Schefty. Let's give someone of the cheft.
5:42
Speaker 1: Schefty was right when it was right, but in the
5:46
Speaker 1: run up, not a single person. The conversation all weekend
5:52
Speaker 1: was about Ben Johnson going to the Raiders and all
5:56
Speaker 1: the brew haha, which was idiotic about tom Brady. Tom
5:59
Speaker 1: Brady flipped the ventures and him calling the game and
6:02
Speaker 1: what he can say to Ben Johnson, and then that
6:05
Speaker 1: incredibly awkward interlude he had with with with Kevin Burkhart
6:10
Speaker 1: about are you staying at Fox? You know, is this
6:13
Speaker 1: a conflict? Like it was so performative and stupid, and
6:19
Speaker 1: none of it mattered because Ben Johnson went to the Bears.
6:22
Speaker 1: And by the way, I happen to know, conversations with
6:26
Speaker 1: the Bears were like deep in progress over the weekend
6:29
Speaker 1: when all this was happening, so nobody had it and
6:33
Speaker 1: nobody was right. So just fantastic.
6:37
Speaker 2: They got to change the rules. I mean, it's if
6:40
Speaker 2: you're a Detroit's fan, I get the rage. But they
6:42
Speaker 2: got to change the rules because, like like you just said,
6:45
Speaker 2: they were deep into conversations over the weekend. I mean,
6:48
Speaker 2: it's it's absurd, it was.
6:50
Speaker 1: It was astonishing. But good for the Bears. I'm proud
6:54
Speaker 1: of them, so proud of this team. I love this franchise.
6:57
Speaker 1: I've given them so much I want them to give back.
7:00
Speaker 1: That's it. That's it. I don't want to consign my
7:02
Speaker 1: kid to a lifetime of misery. As a reminder, the
7:06
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and
7:09
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7:11
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7:19
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7:22
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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. Bet three sixty five
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Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we're going to go through Washington, Philadelphia,
7:50
Speaker 1: We're going to go through Buffalo at Kansas City. I
7:52
Speaker 1: will pull one important stat from Evan Abram's brilliant roundup
8:00
Speaker 1: of stats, trends, and notes heading into the conference championship game,
8:04
Speaker 1: which you can readnow on Action network dot com, read
8:07
Speaker 1: it in the Action Network ap as. It pertains to underdogs.
8:10
Speaker 1: So since two thousand and three, underdogs in the Conference
8:16
Speaker 1: Championship are twenty and twenty two against the spread, the
8:20
Speaker 1: only round of the playoffs below five hundred against the
8:22
Speaker 1: spread in that span. In the Super Bowl era, since
8:26
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty six, underdogs fifty three sixty two and one
8:32
Speaker 1: against the spread in the Conference Championship. That surprised you, sim.
8:38
Speaker 2: A little bit, But like you just think too about
8:41
Speaker 2: how random is I think you know obviously that Bengals
8:43
Speaker 2: Rams here went two and oh dogs last year was
8:45
Speaker 2: two and oh right, am I am? I wrong game?
8:47
Speaker 2: I think last year was too and o Chiefs is
8:48
Speaker 2: a dog against the Ravens. And I mean me and
8:52
Speaker 2: Chad know we we or maybe travels on the other side.
8:54
Speaker 2: But I remember the back door. The Lies are up
8:56
Speaker 2: ten and we needed a backdoor to cover against.
8:58
Speaker 1: The finaty with on the Niners.
9:01
Speaker 2: No, no, I was definitely on the lines.
9:03
Speaker 1: What was the oh right, right, right, right right. We
9:05
Speaker 1: were on the we were on the Lions and we
9:07
Speaker 1: were thrilled because it was going well, but we were.
9:10
Speaker 2: Rather up ten. Then they had to back door to
9:12
Speaker 2: get the like seven point covered everyone's But yeah, it's
9:14
Speaker 2: so we're off to we have a couple of years
9:16
Speaker 2: here since you know, since COVID where the dogs have
9:19
Speaker 2: been covering. But what I take from that from Evan
9:22
Speaker 2: is basically the laws of averages, Like we're due for
9:25
Speaker 2: two and zero favorites week right, That's the way I'm
9:28
Speaker 2: looking at it. Above. Yeah, the Dogs just went four
9:31
Speaker 2: and oh against the closing number. I mean, we're going
9:34
Speaker 2: to get into it here, but it's like, if the
9:35
Speaker 2: line keeps moving on, obviously this Washington team, that's gonna
9:40
Speaker 2: be value on the dog here. But right now, I
9:42
Speaker 2: think we both talked Sunday night, I thought there was
9:43
Speaker 2: value on the favorites. So yeah, it's not shocking to
9:46
Speaker 2: see the early money coming in on the favorites.
9:48
Speaker 1: Dogs seven and three in the playoffs so far, including
9:52
Speaker 1: four and oh against the closing number this past weekend
9:54
Speaker 1: hour youiter rate. I was going through my notes yesterday
10:00
Speaker 1: and looked back at the notes from Sunday night based
10:04
Speaker 1: on Evans' tweet about Dogs going four and zero against
10:09
Speaker 1: the closing number. But the way those games landed, that's
10:15
Speaker 1: a hall of Fame betting weekend, the fact that it
10:20
Speaker 1: came down to Ravens, who opened a plus two, missed
10:26
Speaker 1: a two point conversion in a flucush drop by a
10:29
Speaker 1: guy who doesn't drop passes, and a game in which
10:33
Speaker 1: their loss was partially set up by that same guy fumbling,
10:38
Speaker 1: which he hadn't done since twenty nineteen, the Chiefs getting
10:43
Speaker 1: a safety self induced for that game to land on
10:47
Speaker 1: nine when the number was between eight and a half
10:49
Speaker 1: and nine and a half all week, the the Eagles
10:57
Speaker 1: pushing at six because of Jake Elliot extra points like
11:01
Speaker 1: and then, by the way, the college football playoff last night,
11:06
Speaker 1: that game closed at eight and a half, opened at
11:08
Speaker 1: nine and a half. It was at eight, and you know,
11:11
Speaker 1: with ninety seconds left, it's third and long ish and
11:16
Speaker 1: you're thinking, maybe we got a shot here to cover
11:20
Speaker 1: as a Notre Dame backer. They go fifty six yards
11:23
Speaker 1: and score a game clinching covering field goal. What it like,
11:30
Speaker 1: the drama around the edges of these numbers has just
11:34
Speaker 1: been insane.
11:34
Speaker 2: It's been so exciting, and it's it's also why you know,
11:39
Speaker 2: there's plenty of crazy people out there that believe there's
11:42
Speaker 2: some guy in the Swiss Alps with a time machine
11:44
Speaker 2: that makes these lines. Because you see a weekend like this,
11:48
Speaker 2: it's it's literally just shows how smart the bookmakers are
11:50
Speaker 2: and why we give so much respect to them. We
11:52
Speaker 2: talk about it because all these games are half a point,
11:54
Speaker 2: half a point point here, and like you just said, stupidness,
11:57
Speaker 2: randomness to land on those exact numbers, right, who missed
12:00
Speaker 2: two pointers? Miss extra point? And yeah, that's why we
12:04
Speaker 2: talk all the time that you know, people are like,
12:06
Speaker 2: why do you guys get so spooked off the number?
12:08
Speaker 2: This past year was just weird where numbers didn't really
12:10
Speaker 2: matter when these island games happen, though, and the books
12:13
Speaker 2: are really locked in, right, They're just all focused on
12:16
Speaker 2: hyper focus on these games. There's always gonna be outliers
12:19
Speaker 2: like that Commander's game, but usually the one to two
12:22
Speaker 2: points are gonna matter, especially in the playoffs. And like
12:24
Speaker 2: we just said, this past weekend, you know we personally
12:28
Speaker 2: on the show or I did, I should say, went
12:30
Speaker 2: three to zero to one, right, the one push against
12:32
Speaker 2: the Eagles should have been a four to oh weekend.
12:35
Speaker 2: But the books are just so sharp and make it
12:37
Speaker 2: so tough on paper. Depends when you got our numbers
12:40
Speaker 2: you might have went to and two. Right, you lost
12:42
Speaker 2: them the Chiefs, you lost them the Eagles. Like it's
12:45
Speaker 2: brutal because the books are just that sharp right now.
12:47
Speaker 2: So yeah, we talked Sunday night the numbers we gave
12:51
Speaker 2: out Chad. They got slammed. And that's just how it
12:54
Speaker 2: is in this point in the time of year where
12:55
Speaker 2: it's like the books are smart. They'll take the professional
12:58
Speaker 2: money ear in the week and they'll move heavy off
13:01
Speaker 2: respected money. And yeah, like I can't wait diving these
13:03
Speaker 2: games because it's it's the best time here. You get
13:05
Speaker 2: the best football and you get the smartest book bookmaker
13:09
Speaker 2: wise like number wise, so it really is the best.
13:12
Speaker 1: Washington at Philly. The number is minus six. The total
13:16
Speaker 1: is forty seven and a half, Eagles six point favorites.
13:20
Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday night. I bet this
13:23
Speaker 1: as soon as it opened at four and a half.
13:26
Speaker 1: For two reasons. I just I wondered if bookmakers were
13:28
Speaker 1: keeping it a bit low in case they were worried
13:31
Speaker 1: about Jalen Hurts not playing. Since the line posted before
13:35
Speaker 1: that Eagles Rams game was over, I had been wanting
13:40
Speaker 1: to fade Washington since the second it's game with the Lions,
13:43
Speaker 1: and yeah, like, when you beat the number one seeded
13:47
Speaker 1: team as badly as they did in a high scoring
13:49
Speaker 1: game in prime time with thirty three million people watching,
13:53
Speaker 1: there is no way they are not going to be
13:55
Speaker 1: overvalued the next day. So I was a little dismayed.
14:00
Speaker 1: You and I chatted on Sunday night, and I was
14:03
Speaker 1: all in on betting the four and a half. And
14:06
Speaker 1: then even in the conversation, I got seven books in
14:09
Speaker 1: front of me looking at Action Network and sort of
14:12
Speaker 1: running across the screen. Five of them were at five
14:15
Speaker 1: or five and a half, including bet three six five,
14:17
Speaker 1: only two or at four and a half, And I
14:19
Speaker 1: felt like you, even though you said your rating was
14:22
Speaker 1: at seven, you weren't banging the drum to go after
14:25
Speaker 1: the four and a half.
14:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I know my quarterback. I watched him after
14:30
Speaker 2: the game laugh and give insane answers to the media
14:33
Speaker 2: woman interviewing them, and it's like, this dude's on a
14:35
Speaker 2: ton of drugs. This dude is drugged the fuck up,
14:38
Speaker 2: Like his knees gotta be bad. Because Jalen's not the
14:41
Speaker 2: type of dude that it's like, yeah, shoot me up
14:43
Speaker 2: with whatever I need. To get out there. He's he's
14:45
Speaker 2: the kind of guy that he just wants to fight
14:46
Speaker 2: through and if he's in that much pain, I was like,
14:49
Speaker 2: holy shit, I need them to do some tests before
14:51
Speaker 2: I'm putting heavy money onto this team, because like we
14:54
Speaker 2: talked about, like, yeah, I made the number seven, it
14:56
Speaker 2: was four and a half. Obviously I'm going to take
14:59
Speaker 2: a position on him, but my whole point was I'm
15:01
Speaker 2: not going to hammer this one like I was with
15:02
Speaker 2: the Chief Stummer because I'm just like this, this this,
15:05
Speaker 2: you know, you nail it. Obviously this number is alway
15:07
Speaker 2: up to six and a half and most books, but
15:10
Speaker 2: you know that's part of my job. Like I put
15:12
Speaker 2: the number out there that had at seven. If we
15:14
Speaker 2: come in today and it's three and a half, I
15:15
Speaker 2: look like a fucking idiot. It's like that number went
15:18
Speaker 2: three and a half against what I just said. Luckily
15:20
Speaker 2: it's gone the other way, and I think that, you know,
15:22
Speaker 2: what you just talked about gives us more confidence about
15:24
Speaker 2: Hurts that he is going to be healthy in this spot.
15:27
Speaker 2: There are so many different things we could dive into
15:29
Speaker 2: this game. Where do you want to start even start
15:30
Speaker 2: a Commanders or Eagle side?
15:32
Speaker 1: I want to start with the person I think might
15:35
Speaker 1: be the most important player on the field for the Eagles,
15:39
Speaker 1: which is who is Jalen Carter. And the fact that
15:43
Speaker 1: commanders are going to be without Sam Cosmi their right guard. Yeah,
15:47
Speaker 1: and to me, normally a right guard not mean as
15:51
Speaker 1: much on passing downs, but with Carter it's so different.
15:56
Speaker 1: And Evan had this great stat in his packet, the
16:00
Speaker 1: fourth most pass block snaps for any guard this year
16:04
Speaker 1: were from Sam Cosmy. That's a fifty one guards with
16:07
Speaker 1: at least five hundred pass blocking snaps. He was one
16:12
Speaker 1: of eleven with one sack or fewer allowed. So to me,
16:19
Speaker 1: I look, we already love the Eagles for a variety
16:21
Speaker 1: of reasons, but to me, it begins and ends with
16:24
Speaker 1: this defensive line, and that begins and ends with Jalen Carter.
16:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, just brutal, like brutal, brutal loss that offense. It's
16:31
Speaker 2: basically it feels like the hierarchy goes jayde Daniels, Terry
16:34
Speaker 2: McLaurin than him. Like that was the three most important
16:37
Speaker 2: parts of my opinions of their offense, and you nailed it.
16:41
Speaker 2: Like how dominant that guy's been in pass for now?
16:43
Speaker 2: We know, Jadan Daniels helps those numbers, right, Like if
16:46
Speaker 2: you have a like Josh Allen, Like, if you have
16:48
Speaker 2: a quarterback that can move, it's gonna make the lines
16:51
Speaker 2: and numbers look way better and kind of give them
16:53
Speaker 2: the free bump. But when you really dive into it,
16:55
Speaker 2: this guy is so legit and the fact that he's
16:57
Speaker 2: gonna be missing here it's so macho. I've been just
17:00
Speaker 2: I just want to touch on what you touched at
17:02
Speaker 2: the top of it about we already knew were probably
17:04
Speaker 2: can be on the Eagles just because the j nails
17:06
Speaker 2: is get more of a value in the spot. I mean,
17:08
Speaker 2: even screaming a Smith on espen Is saying he likes
17:11
Speaker 2: them to win the Super Bowl. Now that this is
17:13
Speaker 2: the team of destiny, You're dead. You are absolutely dead.
17:16
Speaker 2: When the man who doesn't watch football in fifteen years
17:18
Speaker 2: is saying you're the team of destiny, you are absolutely dead.
17:21
Speaker 2: So I feel bad for the Washington Commanders, but they
17:24
Speaker 2: can live in this moment. You never know. That's what's
17:26
Speaker 2: so great about the playoffs, this exact spot, Like we're
17:28
Speaker 2: a couple of just talking heads. Fuck if we know
17:30
Speaker 2: like the game, the game can have weird bounces and
17:32
Speaker 2: they can easily win this game. They've put themselves in
17:35
Speaker 2: this position, but this is a game when you dive
17:37
Speaker 2: into the numbers, they are dead on arrival. Like there
17:41
Speaker 2: really is so many things that need to go their
17:43
Speaker 2: way for them to pull off this upset, just because
17:46
Speaker 2: they are so underwhelmingly matched in so many different areas
17:49
Speaker 2: of this football game. And we just talked about them
17:51
Speaker 2: being overvalued, Chad, have you looked at futures at all
17:54
Speaker 2: for next season?
17:55
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's fucking insane.
17:58
Speaker 2: They're sixteen to sixteen to one.
17:59
Speaker 1: These Commanders, the Commanders, the Commanders is absurd right now.
18:06
Speaker 2: So they're above the forty nine Ers, the Packers, the Bengals,
18:10
Speaker 2: just to name a few right now. In the future
18:12
Speaker 2: Bowl Super odds next year, it's it's peak, Like we
18:16
Speaker 2: know the deal, Like Jane Dangels will be lucky, lucky
18:20
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs next year because we know Regression's
18:22
Speaker 2: gonna hit him like crack in the eighties. He is
18:25
Speaker 2: gonna be hurting next year, Like the league is going
18:27
Speaker 2: to figure him out and a bunch of different ways.
18:29
Speaker 2: And that's just how it is in this league. Like
18:31
Speaker 2: we talk all the time, these are the best of
18:33
Speaker 2: the best. They the coaches are paid millions of dollars
18:37
Speaker 2: to sit back there and figure out ways. And you
18:39
Speaker 2: know this is this could be peaked. That's why I
18:42
Speaker 2: don't want to be shitting on this Commander's think too much.
18:44
Speaker 2: We've seen it so many times that you know, Dan
18:47
Speaker 2: Marino the greatest quarterback when I was growing up in
18:49
Speaker 2: my lifetime, like watching on him in film. You know,
18:52
Speaker 2: paying man time, Brady replaced him in my opinion of
18:54
Speaker 2: being the next, like the greatest. But Marino, you go
18:57
Speaker 2: back and watch your tape. It's flucish that he never
19:00
Speaker 2: made it back to the super Bowl. That's why Washington fans,
19:03
Speaker 2: you should enjoy this. You're literally a win away from
19:05
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. I'm sorry, I'm about to dive into
19:08
Speaker 2: these numbers and just shit on your team in a
19:09
Speaker 2: bunch of different ways, but that's what we're here to do. Chad,
19:11
Speaker 2: and I just want to start right with their defense.
19:13
Speaker 2: Something mean, you talked about their run defense. That is
19:17
Speaker 2: the biggest thing that jumps out to you when you
19:19
Speaker 2: dive in any of these numbers. I know, you know
19:22
Speaker 2: there are summers that saying they do get better in
19:24
Speaker 2: the second half, they are able to make adjustments and
19:26
Speaker 2: their run defense doesn't prove in the second half, but
19:28
Speaker 2: just over the over the course of the season. Twenty
19:32
Speaker 2: six and run defense dvoa, Okay, that's alarming. Twenty thirty
19:35
Speaker 2: and justin line thirty first and second level yards allowed
19:39
Speaker 2: so past the five and ten yard marker twenty just
19:41
Speaker 2: where lives twenty six and open field yards allowed.
19:47
Speaker 1: So when Barkley lives.
19:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it couldn't be worse. I mean, Evan
19:53
Speaker 2: just put our chat rushing proper saquon one hundred and
19:55
Speaker 2: twenty seven yards might be too low. It might be
19:58
Speaker 2: too low. It's like to me, I was trying to
20:02
Speaker 2: find an angle for the Commanders just because you know
20:04
Speaker 2: hurts his banged up. Janie Daniels is the difference maker.
20:07
Speaker 2: We've never seen a rookie quarterback like him. But that
20:10
Speaker 2: defense is a real issue now when we really break
20:13
Speaker 2: this down and look at the games, me and you
20:15
Speaker 2: were all over Tampa against this Commander's team. We even
20:18
Speaker 2: said it, if Baker just played a little bit smarter,
20:22
Speaker 2: that's a no brainer win cover double digits. Yes, Like
20:26
Speaker 2: we both feel the same exact way about that.
20:27
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm your chorus right now, anything you say.
20:32
Speaker 2: But it's just like you really dive into and I
20:35
Speaker 2: get the hype, but that's what people have to push
20:38
Speaker 2: through the media bullshit of the shiny new toy. No
20:41
Speaker 2: one wants to see an Eagles chief Super Bowl. I'm
20:43
Speaker 2: an Eagles fan. I would love nothing more for a
20:46
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback to be playing the Bills, all the Bills
20:49
Speaker 2: history shit. Honestly, I'm again I'm an Eagles fan. So yes,
20:53
Speaker 2: deep down I want the Eagles clearly, but I'm saying
20:56
Speaker 2: as a fan of football, no, Like, dude, it killed
20:59
Speaker 2: me last year having to talk forty nine Ers Chiefs again.
21:01
Speaker 2: No one wanted to talk that again. So it's like
21:04
Speaker 2: that's part of it. I get where I get where
21:06
Speaker 2: the media is coming from hyping up this team right now,
21:08
Speaker 2: but when you really go through it, they needed Baker
21:12
Speaker 2: to have a disaster game, to have that type of game.
21:13
Speaker 2: They needed golf to melt, like absolutely melt. And we
21:17
Speaker 2: joked about it, if they just handed the ball off
21:19
Speaker 2: that entire game, I really do think they probably win
21:22
Speaker 2: that game and Detroit Lions, and they're now in a
21:26
Speaker 2: spot playing an Eagles team that is plus six in
21:29
Speaker 2: the turnover rate. But I think we could both agree
21:30
Speaker 2: chat they've not played their best football in two weeks
21:32
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, like they've left a lot of plays
21:35
Speaker 2: on the field, Like they have struggled different ways, And
21:38
Speaker 2: now is it coming to a team that honestly, if
21:40
Speaker 2: this is the regular season, this would be the perfect
21:41
Speaker 2: spot to back this Eagles team in the sense of
21:45
Speaker 2: they match up grade against them and this is the
21:47
Speaker 2: kind of spot where they get back into their groove
21:49
Speaker 2: of what they've been this regular season. And you know
21:52
Speaker 2: the fact that the defensive numbers are what they are
21:55
Speaker 2: for the rush defense, that's everything to me because I
21:57
Speaker 2: agreed with a lot of what you said about the
21:58
Speaker 2: Ravens and Bills, like those biggest weakness was the rush,
22:02
Speaker 2: and that's why I got where you were coming from.
22:03
Speaker 2: It's the same thing here and Hurts on the flip side,
22:06
Speaker 2: he's been the gift that he's been doing. He's not
22:08
Speaker 2: turning the ball over. That's why these Eagles teams have
22:10
Speaker 2: been winning these last two games. So yeah, it's it's
22:13
Speaker 2: when you dive into it and we're going to the
22:14
Speaker 2: commander side right now. It's the first thing that jumps
22:17
Speaker 2: out to me. Yes, we're all impressed by Jane Daniels,
22:19
Speaker 2: but it's really this defense that they're just they're totally
22:22
Speaker 2: being overlooked here, like no one's bringing up their defense
22:24
Speaker 2: just because we're all so enamored with Jaden Daniels right now.
22:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, the defense, the defense got so torched by the
22:34
Speaker 1: Lions running game. The Lions almost pulled not almost, they
22:39
Speaker 1: kind of did pull what the Ravens pulled the year
22:42
Speaker 1: before against the Chiefs and the championship game. All they
22:46
Speaker 1: had to do was keep giving the ball to Jamiir
22:48
Speaker 1: Gibbs and they kept you know, they got too cute
22:51
Speaker 1: by half a couple of times, especially on that Jamison
22:54
Speaker 1: Williams pass right, and so like those things are game
22:59
Speaker 1: killers in the playoffs, the Eagles don't have that benefit.
23:05
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurt is hobbled like and by the way, we
23:09
Speaker 1: still don't have official confirmation he's playing this weekend. We
23:13
Speaker 1: just haven't been given confirmation that he's got structural damage
23:16
Speaker 1: or anything that would keep him from playing, So we
23:19
Speaker 1: have to assume that he's playing. And by the way,
23:21
Speaker 1: the way the numbers moving gives every indication that he
23:25
Speaker 1: is playing.
23:26
Speaker 2: And Earl's respective money, Right, That's what I was going to.
23:30
Speaker 1: Say, Like, yeah, we've we've seen on this show how
23:33
Speaker 1: often Simon is able to indicate ahead of the market
23:39
Speaker 1: because he has sources throughout the NFL, as do a
23:42
Speaker 1: lot of professional betters. It's not just Adam Schefter, Like
23:45
Speaker 1: everybody has sources in the NFL. I knew over the
23:48
Speaker 1: weekend what was going on with the Bears, Like the people.
23:52
Speaker 2: Have to talk, people like to talk, and so.
23:56
Speaker 1: Like it's it's people aren't heading heavy on the Eagles
24:01
Speaker 1: right now because they're guessing Jalen Hurts, Yeah, might play.
24:08
Speaker 1: The Eagles don't have the same predilections as as the Lions, right,
24:15
Speaker 1: they don't have the same kind of offense. Their offense
24:17
Speaker 1: is run behind Jordan Mylatta, run behind Lane Johnson, give
24:22
Speaker 1: the ball the Saquon Bark. We let him get one
24:24
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven and a half yards in one
24:26
Speaker 1: play and on the third and four roll Jalen Hurts out,
24:32
Speaker 1: you know, and like keep moving the ball, wait for
24:35
Speaker 1: that big play beat down the other side of the defense.
24:38
Speaker 1: So yeah, they're just good and the Commander's defense is
24:43
Speaker 1: so bad.
24:44
Speaker 2: And even if Hurts is banged up. We just talked
24:46
Speaker 2: about it. They'll shoot him up, and to me, we've
24:49
Speaker 2: seen time time again. I mean, one of my favorite
24:52
Speaker 2: bets ever. I lost to chat We went head to head.
24:54
Speaker 2: I like Cleveland, he liked the Browns. It was Deshaun
24:57
Speaker 2: Watson's last game maybe ever for the Cleveland Browns. And
25:02
Speaker 2: basically they're down I think ten ten and a half and
25:05
Speaker 2: Watson breaks his collar bone. They shoot him up. He
25:08
Speaker 2: comes out and is basically perfect really against the Ravens
25:11
Speaker 2: the second half. And you've seen that time and time again.
25:13
Speaker 2: My favorite two Aaron Rodgers against your Bears team came
25:15
Speaker 2: on that second half, all messed up, was perfect in
25:19
Speaker 2: the game flowless to the second half, and it's just
25:21
Speaker 2: because it turns off that thinking piece, right. And you know,
25:24
Speaker 2: we joked about that egos game. People. I told you
25:27
Speaker 2: they were gonna do it. They were gonna shit on
25:29
Speaker 2: Hurts after that game last week because he'd have the
25:31
Speaker 2: numbers negating AJ Brown dropped that touchdown, nagatting. He had
25:36
Speaker 2: another drop for another twenty yards. You know, Smith had
25:40
Speaker 2: a drop that was another twenty thirty yards. It's like,
25:42
Speaker 2: that's just how it is, right because a lot of
25:44
Speaker 2: these guys don't watch these games, which sounds crazy. People
25:46
Speaker 2: what I'm telling you, they just don't. They're living the
25:48
Speaker 2: good life, so to me. You know, even if Hurts
25:53
Speaker 2: is hampered, here, we broke it down what we think
25:56
Speaker 2: this is gonna be. This is going to be a lean,
25:58
Speaker 2: heavy on run game. Hurts same thing he's been all season,
26:01
Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs here. Fifteen to sixteen completions maybe
26:05
Speaker 2: twenty five twenty four passes total. That's what the Egles
26:08
Speaker 2: want to be. And it's we saw with Josh Allen
26:10
Speaker 2: the Bills. The teams have figured it out where if
26:12
Speaker 2: you're just smart, protect the ball and run it, let
26:15
Speaker 2: the other team make them a stick. It's it's impossible
26:17
Speaker 2: now to pick up big chunk plays usually let them
26:20
Speaker 2: didn't get dunk down the field and wait for the
26:22
Speaker 2: Nike mistake. I do think it's stolen from the Chiefs.
26:25
Speaker 2: Like that's what the Chiefs model has been the last
26:27
Speaker 2: two years, and all these teams have leaned into and
26:29
Speaker 2: adapted to it. And that's not Washington's game, Like, that's
26:33
Speaker 2: not who Jane Daniels is. So yeah, this I like
26:37
Speaker 2: the hype. I just love it all right, now because
26:40
Speaker 2: it is fueling the public reception even the Action app.
26:42
Speaker 2: I was looking for a game on the tickets all
26:46
Speaker 2: all in Washington, even though it's moved against them, because
26:48
Speaker 2: you look in the action app, the money right now
26:50
Speaker 2: is on the Eagles, so it is professional money obviously
26:52
Speaker 2: early here. And you know, I know you love referee stats.
26:55
Speaker 2: Have you seen any of the ref stats for this
26:56
Speaker 2: game yet?
26:57
Speaker 1: I just saw one, the one about Sean Hockey Lee
27:00
Speaker 1: that Evan had as the only one I've seen.
27:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, So Eagles six and oh we Shaan Hockley five
27:06
Speaker 2: and one against the spread, Commanders one and two, oh
27:09
Speaker 2: and three against a straight up oh and three against
27:11
Speaker 2: the spread with him, And again it doesn't really matter.
27:14
Speaker 2: That's kind of like a random, just stupid stat. But
27:17
Speaker 2: there's a lot of ones this week that are just
27:18
Speaker 2: like that, that kind of back up that you know,
27:22
Speaker 2: this is just a bad spot for this Commander's team.
27:23
Speaker 2: The biggest one I took from Evan was the Commanders
27:26
Speaker 2: of the eighth team since two thousand air playoff game
27:28
Speaker 2: on their fourth road ro game in a row, fourth
27:31
Speaker 2: road game in a row, so pretty big deal. Those
27:34
Speaker 2: previous seven oh and seven straight up won five and
27:38
Speaker 2: one against the spread, this exact spot. So the Commanders
27:40
Speaker 2: are just already in a really tough spot and there's
27:43
Speaker 2: already a lot of factors going against them defensively, offensively.
27:46
Speaker 2: So yeah, we talked about this. This rookie the greatest
27:49
Speaker 2: we've ever seen, never see anything like it. He nearly
27:51
Speaker 2: he literally needs to be perfect in this game for
27:53
Speaker 2: them to pull up this upset. So that's why right
27:55
Speaker 2: now I think we're both in agreeance. It's still under seven.
27:58
Speaker 2: I still think the value is on this Eagles team.
27:59
Speaker 2: It's so that's that was a long window way to
28:02
Speaker 2: get there. But that's what I wanted to get into
28:04
Speaker 2: is just there's so many different numbers back in this
28:07
Speaker 2: Eagles team in this spot, not just what we know
28:10
Speaker 2: is better is which is this is going to be
28:12
Speaker 2: an overvalue team. On the flip side, Eagles who didn't
28:15
Speaker 2: cover for about ninety percent of the betters who took them,
28:17
Speaker 2: and you know, they look bad. They have a bang
28:20
Speaker 2: up quarterback. They're now the underrated team, favored at home
28:23
Speaker 2: and a spot that's great for them. So a very
28:25
Speaker 2: unique spot for back in this Eagles team.
28:28
Speaker 1: Two things I'm glad you brought up number one. There
28:31
Speaker 1: are when you get to this stage, a shitload of
28:36
Speaker 1: red herring stats, right that, the Hockey League stat, the
28:43
Speaker 1: other stat about the you know, four straight road games.
28:48
Speaker 1: They're good information, but they're not the information you base
28:52
Speaker 1: your decision on, and oftentimes our first instinct on the
29:00
Speaker 1: after at this point, you know, what is it nineteen weeks,
29:05
Speaker 1: twenty weeks of watching football and seeing these games and
29:08
Speaker 1: seeing how the market is moving, your first instinct on
29:11
Speaker 1: the number. I have found it much easier during the
29:13
Speaker 1: playoffs to bet with confidence on Sunday Night than I
29:18
Speaker 1: was during the season because there's only so many games.
29:22
Speaker 1: At this point of the season, you have a good
29:24
Speaker 1: at sense of which way the market is going to
29:26
Speaker 1: move based on who won and the perception of that
29:30
Speaker 1: team going forward. And so this was an obvious one.
29:34
Speaker 1: I will give you one last stat because this one
29:38
Speaker 1: felt like it was a big enough sample size. The
29:41
Speaker 1: Commanders have won seven in a row. Fifteen teams have
29:45
Speaker 1: entered a conference championship game on a seven plus game
29:49
Speaker 1: straight up win streak since two thousand and four, four
29:53
Speaker 1: and eleven against the spread, failing to cover by four
29:58
Speaker 1: and a half points. So week you talked about an
30:01
Speaker 1: autline on the Eagles at I think minus ten. That's
30:06
Speaker 1: how this might line up too, if we want to
30:11
Speaker 1: get a little funky and we're starting to feel really
30:14
Speaker 1: confident about the Eagles.
30:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot. There's a lot of meat on
30:19
Speaker 2: that bone for sure.
30:21
Speaker 1: Hey, as an Eagles fan, now that I can bask
30:23
Speaker 1: in the glory of having probably the best offensive mine
30:27
Speaker 1: in a generation and a guy like already getting fitted
30:31
Speaker 1: for Super Bowl rings, Nick Sirianni has clearly bought himself
30:36
Speaker 1: another year and all this week because the media is
30:39
Speaker 1: so predictable, glowing glowing, glowing, glowing stories about Nick Sirianni
30:45
Speaker 1: and how he connects with his players and Nick Sirianni
30:48
Speaker 1: and how he has remained calm and comfortable throughout this
30:53
Speaker 1: entire hot seat process. How do you feel about Nick
30:58
Speaker 1: Sirianni continuing to be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.
31:03
Speaker 2: I'm tough to get off my views of people, Like,
31:06
Speaker 2: once I have a view on you, you rub me
31:08
Speaker 2: the wrong way, I'm kind of stuck in on it,
31:09
Speaker 2: and I just I'll never get there with them. Unfortunately,
31:13
Speaker 2: even if we get to the super Bowl, maybe that
31:14
Speaker 2: would be it. Maybe if we win it, I'll be like, Okay,
31:18
Speaker 2: I do give this guy too much, but I'm still
31:20
Speaker 2: the mindset of it's all Howie baby, Like Howie's just
31:23
Speaker 2: given him the best possible car you can drive, and
31:26
Speaker 2: his whole job is just not to fuck this up.
31:28
Speaker 2: And that rams game chat, I was about twenty seconds
31:31
Speaker 2: away from him being fired, Like they scored that touchdown
31:34
Speaker 2: there at the end, and we lose that game. I mean,
31:38
Speaker 2: unless he knows something about Jeffrey Leard, we don't know.
31:41
Speaker 2: You gotta fire him after that type of loss you
31:43
Speaker 2: lose when you're up thirteen with four minutes to go
31:45
Speaker 2: and you blow that, that would be on him. But yeah,
31:48
Speaker 2: I mean I've seen all the stats. He has the
31:50
Speaker 2: most wins in NFL history in his first four seasons coaching.
31:53
Speaker 2: But i mean, we all see what's happening here. It's
31:56
Speaker 2: like one of the best teams you can put onto
31:58
Speaker 2: the field. It's all built by Howie. And you know,
32:02
Speaker 2: I'll give him his roses that he is a good
32:03
Speaker 2: team coach and he's kept these guys in his right
32:05
Speaker 2: mindset and we're a game away from the super Bowl here,
32:08
Speaker 2: But yeah, I's still like that game with that rams
32:11
Speaker 2: game chat. That's why I just it's hard for me
32:14
Speaker 2: with him sometimes because those games snowball and they keep
32:16
Speaker 2: showing him on the sideline with his dumb look on
32:18
Speaker 2: his face. I'm just like, he is there's nothing happening
32:21
Speaker 2: right now, and this guy, this guy is not. There's
32:23
Speaker 2: nothing he can do right now. This is totally out
32:25
Speaker 2: of his control. And yeah, it's it's incredible what he's done.
32:30
Speaker 2: You know, he might go back to back Super Bowls
32:32
Speaker 2: in two years. It's pretty impressive. Obviously.
32:34
Speaker 1: It's like, by the way, you mentioned Dan Marino is
32:38
Speaker 1: like in your lifetime, Dude, Den Marino's my lifetime. He's
32:42
Speaker 1: not your lifetime.
32:43
Speaker 2: I drafted Dan Marino in fantasy football, so shut the
32:46
Speaker 2: fuck up, chat, He's in my lifetime. When did you.
32:48
Speaker 1: Draft Dan Marino in fantasy football? He retired? And like,
32:51
Speaker 1: when did you retire?
32:52
Speaker 2: Like eight ninety eight, Jesus Christ, you were three. I
32:58
Speaker 2: appreciate that a little older than that, but I got him.
33:01
Speaker 1: Before we get to Bill's jeeves, it has come to
33:05
Speaker 1: our attention, so we had a little fun before the
33:06
Speaker 1: season started. A huge percentage of our current favorite audience
33:11
Speaker 1: has never seen something something important, very important, which we
33:15
Speaker 1: aired back on August twenty seventh. Let's fix that right now. So,
33:19
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell played a very long con on me over
33:24
Speaker 1: the course of a full year. Enjoy all right, Matt
33:29
Speaker 1: Mitchell pulled a long con on me all last football
33:33
Speaker 1: season with an ad reag prank that took him months
33:38
Speaker 1: to execute. I'm going to bring in Matt Mitchell to
33:41
Speaker 1: explain the con that he pulled on me, and listen.
33:47
Speaker 1: Kudos to him because he worked this and staged straight
33:52
Speaker 1: faced for months while I made a fool of myself.
33:57
Speaker 2: Okay, last, but not least, Uncle.
33:59
Speaker 3: Mitch ched You and I have been working together now
34:02
Speaker 3: for a seventh NFL season, And like a lot of
34:06
Speaker 3: our talent, you're a.
34:07
Speaker 2: Real busy guy.
34:08
Speaker 3: You're busy being an executive doing meetings and such. You know,
34:11
Speaker 3: a lot of our maniacs excimon are busy with you know,
34:14
Speaker 3: handicapping Sam Houston, State or MLB stuff plus rates or whatever.
34:18
Speaker 3: And like a lot of our talent, you're also made
34:21
Speaker 3: to do ad reads by me for our network. Unlike
34:25
Speaker 3: the rest of our talent, though, I learned that you
34:28
Speaker 3: will read absolutely anything I put in front of you,
34:30
Speaker 3: Ron Burgundy style with almost no feedback, You'll just knock
34:35
Speaker 3: it out and you're onto the next thing, which is
34:37
Speaker 3: a gift, and I do appreciate that. Unfortunately, I did
34:40
Speaker 3: decide to take advantage of that, and over basically a
34:43
Speaker 3: full calendar year, anytime we had a real ad read
34:46
Speaker 3: to do, I would also write and make you read
34:49
Speaker 3: a second entirely phony and increasingly ludicrous adread, which you
34:54
Speaker 3: would happily knock out with almost no feedback whatsoever. And
35:00
Speaker 3: once we'd gotten a lot of them, we cut them
35:02
Speaker 3: together into a montage that Simon has now seen for.
35:05
Speaker 2: The first time.
35:06
Speaker 3: OCASEI skips all company meetings and and I just want
35:11
Speaker 3: to say, I'm really proud of you, and we'll play
35:13
Speaker 3: it right now so everyone can can have the context.
35:15
Speaker 3: Please enjoy chad reading entirely fabricated sponsorship reads.
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37:09
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what you want, if it comes from the
37:12
Speaker 1: sea's delicious bounty. Captain Kinkaid Seafood Express, has you covered deliciousness?
37:18
Speaker 1: Ahay Simon, Would you think.
37:22
Speaker 2: I loved it? As someone that's watching it, It's like,
37:24
Speaker 2: how does this guy not know that these things are fake?
37:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I'm a professional. If someone is paying us,
37:30
Speaker 1: I give it my all. I read it with enthusiasm.
37:35
Speaker 1: I respect Matt Mitchell's time. I respect Matt Mitchell as
37:38
Speaker 1: the producer of this show. If he says we got
37:40
Speaker 1: to read, I say great, I'm going to go in.
37:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to read it with gusto. The words I
37:47
Speaker 1: don't know what they are. I am just reading them
37:49
Speaker 1: with gusto. Matt Mitchell, you disrespect in my time and
37:53
Speaker 1: my talent. This might be the last show you ever do.
37:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, it would be worth it because I will say
37:58
Speaker 3: one ying Yang Twins, if you're listening, we'd love to
38:02
Speaker 3: get in business with you. You guys are the best.
38:04
Speaker 3: My wife loved that read the most. I'll also note
38:07
Speaker 3: that a couple of times, when you'd stumble in them,
38:11
Speaker 3: you'd go like, oh, this is kind of a weird one.
38:13
Speaker 3: I'd want to totally crack up and lose it. So
38:17
Speaker 3: I would react to that by just shouting at you,
38:19
Speaker 3: because that was I need to react in a big
38:21
Speaker 3: way to cover that I was laughing. So I'd be like,
38:23
Speaker 3: shut up, Chad, just finish reading it, and you'd be like, okay, Jesus,
38:27
Speaker 3: all right. So yeah, I almost lost it a couple
38:29
Speaker 3: of times, but we uh, we stuck the landing. I'm
38:31
Speaker 3: proud of you, and I look forward to taking advantage
38:34
Speaker 3: of you in a similar way when you're least suspecting it.
38:37
Speaker 1: In the future, your suspect Matt Mitchell, and I am
38:41
Speaker 1: onto you. I will be questioning everything from now on.
38:46
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, it's time for an ad read, A
38:49
Speaker 1: real ad read. Our producer Matt Mitchell does look incredibly
38:53
Speaker 1: confident this week, full of zeal with a renewed lust
38:57
Speaker 1: for life. I think some of his hair may even
39:00
Speaker 1: be growing back, and I assumed it was because his
39:03
Speaker 1: Buffalo bills are headed back to the AFC Championship Game.
39:08
Speaker 1: Upon closer inspection, I was mistaken. It's because he's decked
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Speaker 1: and with a special sale for our listeners. You two
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39:50
Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Buffalo at Kansas City.
39:56
Speaker 1: This is the primetime game. Some would say it's the
39:59
Speaker 1: main event. Kansas City is a one and a half
40:01
Speaker 1: point favorite. At least they were as we came on
40:03
Speaker 1: the air. I have not checked the number. In the
40:05
Speaker 1: last you know, forty minutes, the total is forty seven
40:10
Speaker 1: and a half. Before we get into it, I do
40:13
Speaker 1: want to say I love our watchers and our viewers
40:17
Speaker 1: and our listeners because the Saquon Barkley Russian prop that
40:21
Speaker 1: started at one hundred and twenty seven and a half
40:24
Speaker 1: is now up to one hundred and twenty nine and
40:25
Speaker 1: a half. So good for you guys from jumping on
40:28
Speaker 1: that so fast way to move the market. Here we
40:32
Speaker 1: go again, Simon AFC Title Game, Patrick Mahomes short favorite.
40:37
Speaker 1: We both loved it one and a half on Sunday night.
40:40
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.
40:45
Speaker 1: Simon says Chiefs minus one and a half.
40:48
Speaker 4: When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says,
40:52
Speaker 4: This line's gonna go up to two two and a
40:54
Speaker 4: half by kicking my opinion, I just I do think
40:56
Speaker 4: the professionals will come in on this chief side.
40:58
Speaker 2: It's it really is a game where you know, not
41:02
Speaker 2: to take anything from this way. From this Bill's season,
41:04
Speaker 2: it's been incredible. I think even Bills fans would tell
41:07
Speaker 2: you this was supposed to be, you know, win the division,
41:11
Speaker 2: maybe get in as a four to three seed. Happiest
41:14
Speaker 2: hell to be at this spot and Obviously, when you're
41:18
Speaker 2: carrying whatever it is, thirty million, it could be a
41:20
Speaker 2: dead cap because of Stefan Diggs. It's a big deal.
41:23
Speaker 2: They have an aging defense. We've heard ad nauseam how
41:25
Speaker 2: they have a small, undersized defense that can be run on.
41:28
Speaker 2: We know the deal. It's it's Josh Allen. It's the
41:31
Speaker 2: magic of Josh Allen. So if you're something that is
41:33
Speaker 2: betting him here, you're basically that's all you can hang
41:36
Speaker 2: your hat on. You're just betting on the year of
41:38
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. And again the reason I thought he was
41:40
Speaker 2: the MVP, him and paying many the only All pros
41:43
Speaker 2: ever to have no thether all pros on their team. Like,
41:46
Speaker 2: that's an insane stat This guy was an All Pro.
41:50
Speaker 2: I mean we talked that. You didn't do it alone. Obviously,
41:52
Speaker 2: it's a full team. The offensive line cooks the running
41:55
Speaker 2: back like he has weapons. But it is all Josh Allen.
41:58
Speaker 2: Like that game again, the Rave that was the new
42:01
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, the smart Josh Allen that doesn't make mistakes,
42:04
Speaker 2: shoot himself in the foot, Josh Allen. I mean, you
42:06
Speaker 2: know I was waiting for it. I don't know about you, Chaid.
42:08
Speaker 2: I was waiting for it in that game, Like I
42:10
Speaker 2: was like, one's coming with Josh. He's gonna throw one.
42:13
Speaker 2: He's gonna be he's gonna get passed, he's gonna be impatient,
42:16
Speaker 2: because you could see that second half he was getting
42:18
Speaker 2: pissed off. He was like, why is mcderman not let
42:20
Speaker 2: me just run this offense right now? Why we keep
42:22
Speaker 2: running into these seven front walls? And he didn't, He
42:25
Speaker 2: didn't do it, Like I really tend my hat to him.
42:30
Speaker 3: Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they
42:35
Speaker 3: have to do.
42:37
Speaker 2: It's that's my favorite part about this is seeing the
42:38
Speaker 2: growth in different players, and it's like that was the
42:41
Speaker 2: next step for Josh was to get rid of the
42:43
Speaker 2: stupid turner, especially in the road zone, and he's done that.
42:45
Speaker 2: So yeah, sad into this game. No one's model should
42:49
Speaker 2: have the bills of the favorite here. They should be
42:51
Speaker 2: an underdog on this spot like the Chiefs. They're a
42:54
Speaker 2: better team across the board. The number being below three
42:59
Speaker 2: is just to respect that the bookmakers and a lot
43:01
Speaker 2: of professionals have for Josh Allen and what he's done
43:03
Speaker 2: this season and the fear I've been against him. Right,
43:06
Speaker 2: that's another part of this. But you know, when I
43:09
Speaker 2: dove into this game, the first thing I thought to myself, Chad,
43:11
Speaker 2: was I would handicap this totally different if this was
43:14
Speaker 2: an Orchard Park rather than it's an Arrowhead. And that
43:17
Speaker 2: to me is the difference. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows
43:19
Speaker 2: the only games they've lost this year, what's the big
43:22
Speaker 2: common de factor in all those games? It's on the road.
43:25
Speaker 2: Like they were perfect at home this season, but on
43:27
Speaker 2: the road it was just a different story. You know,
43:29
Speaker 2: they lost the Ravens, we all remember that in September
43:32
Speaker 2: ten to thirty five. Then they lost to Houston, a
43:34
Speaker 2: game we loved. Then they had that you know, crazy
43:37
Speaker 2: game against the Rams that josh Awen did everything he
43:39
Speaker 2: could still fell short, right because of this defense. They
43:43
Speaker 2: gave up forty four points. They lost forty two to
43:45
Speaker 2: forty four, insane win. The next week against the Lions
43:49
Speaker 2: were like, seriously, he was full on god mode. They
43:51
Speaker 2: went forty eight to forty two. Like we're talking insane
43:55
Speaker 2: numbers here. And then obviously we don't really account it.
43:58
Speaker 2: They had lost the New England Patriots end of the
43:59
Speaker 2: season and on the road. And you know, when I
44:02
Speaker 2: break it, all down with this Bill's team. It's like
44:05
Speaker 2: it's all about what kind of josh Allen's gonna show
44:07
Speaker 2: up here, Chad, Like I know, betting the Chiefs here,
44:09
Speaker 2: we could get easily get burned. If josh Awn has
44:11
Speaker 2: the ball last, I just can't see him losing it,
44:14
Speaker 2: like this is his year. It really is like it's
44:16
Speaker 2: his moment. That's why I love all the conversation around
44:19
Speaker 2: Lamar getting too much shape for that game. It's like, well,
44:21
Speaker 2: if you would have got the two pointer, the game
44:23
Speaker 2: would have been tied. Yeah, josh Awn had a minute
44:26
Speaker 2: thirty two timeouts, Like that game was dead, it was over.
44:29
Speaker 2: And you know when I look at this game here,
44:32
Speaker 2: it's the same type of view. If if josh has
44:34
Speaker 2: the ball and last, I do think I'll get burned here.
44:37
Speaker 2: But I mean you talk Sunday night. I do think
44:39
Speaker 2: it's about the number here and one and a half.
44:41
Speaker 2: To me, that's great value. Like it's below the key
44:43
Speaker 2: number of two, which I talk all the time about
44:46
Speaker 2: that Ravens game landed on two. We see it all
44:48
Speaker 2: the time now though it's it's too has become such
44:50
Speaker 2: an important number. So that's why I made it. Simon
44:52
Speaker 2: says Chad, I just when I saw that you could
44:54
Speaker 2: still get one and a half right now at our
44:55
Speaker 2: sponsor a BETHUSIXS five. It's like, tell the people go
44:58
Speaker 2: a get I know depends on your look, but stay
45:00
Speaker 2: here and you might already be stuck on the two.
45:02
Speaker 2: But I really hope you can find the one and
45:03
Speaker 2: a half. It's just such a key number.
45:05
Speaker 1: I'm actually I'm shocked that it hadn't moved to already,
45:08
Speaker 1: because the juice has been headed in that direction for
45:10
Speaker 1: at least twenty four hours, so the fact that it's
45:13
Speaker 1: still send at one and a half is a bit
45:14
Speaker 1: of surprise. You beat me at the punch on the
45:17
Speaker 1: Simon says, because I want to make this my execut decision.
45:21
Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
45:25
Speaker 2: Are you heavy on Honor's text to cut the executive decision?
45:30
Speaker 2: Do it? I mean there's like four games to pick up.
45:32
Speaker 2: I mean there are two games to pick from.
45:34
Speaker 1: So what I would like to do, because the other
45:37
Speaker 1: thing I was going to do was grab the Chiefs
45:41
Speaker 1: on the money line at minus one twenty five, because
45:44
Speaker 1: that is still available, yeah, still a relatively good price.
45:49
Speaker 1: I would like permission from you and from Matt Mitchell
45:54
Speaker 1: as the partners and arbiters of our rules, that it's
45:58
Speaker 1: not a cop out to be taking Kansas DIY on
46:00
Speaker 1: the money line, because I do have reasons to want
46:02
Speaker 1: to do it, and the number is so short that
46:05
Speaker 1: it's not like I'm taking a six point favorite.
46:08
Speaker 2: What the fuck is happening?
46:11
Speaker 1: What the fuck is.
46:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's blow minus one fifty. I'll definitely yeah, Matt
46:19
Speaker 2: Mitchell allowed, I'll all out. It's not that I am taken.
46:22
Speaker 1: My exact decision is Casey on the money line. Here's
46:26
Speaker 1: a stat from Yeah, give me some stats in home
46:30
Speaker 1: games in November or later when the temperature is forty
46:34
Speaker 1: degrees or less. Mahomes is twenty three and two straight
46:37
Speaker 1: up in his career. He's won twenty in a row,
46:43
Speaker 1: twenty in a row, hasn't lost since losing to Tom
46:45
Speaker 1: Brady in twenty nineteen. So I know, like, okay, great regression,
46:52
Speaker 1: jinx whatever, Like it's Patrick Mahomes. And Brady actually said
46:58
Speaker 1: something he was on Cowhard the other day. He said
47:01
Speaker 1: something that I thought was just crazy smart. Why is
47:04
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes so good in the playoffs Because more often
47:08
Speaker 1: than not, especially at the end of the game, You've
47:11
Speaker 1: got to stop him for four downs. And it's so
47:14
Speaker 1: freaking hard to stop Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes four
47:18
Speaker 1: straight downs for moving the ball and getting the first
47:21
Speaker 1: down that they need. It just is. And so as
47:25
Speaker 1: much as you are saying Josh Allen gets the ball
47:27
Speaker 1: at the end, Patrick Mahomes gets the ball at the end.
47:29
Speaker 2: Yeah.
47:30
Speaker 1: And I also think if Patrick Mahomes has a lead
47:35
Speaker 1: and he has the ball with four minutes left, they
47:40
Speaker 1: win that game. They don't give the ball up, and
47:43
Speaker 1: I don't think the Bills can stop them. So that's
47:47
Speaker 1: why I like the Chiefs. I'm really excited about our
47:50
Speaker 1: futures conversation because right now, the Eagles have the shortest
47:53
Speaker 1: odds and the Chiefs have the second shortest odds, and
47:56
Speaker 1: so when we are talking about this on Thursday, I'm
47:58
Speaker 1: excited to get into this a little bit more deeply.
48:02
Speaker 1: I do have concerns. I have big, big concerns about
48:08
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Would you like to hear some of them?
48:12
Speaker 2: I love to hear so.
48:13
Speaker 1: All right, So the Chiefs running game not nearly explosive
48:20
Speaker 1: as the Ravens, and that's how the Chiefs got themselves
48:25
Speaker 1: or the Ravens got themselves back into the game against
48:28
Speaker 1: the Bills because I do think that rush defense was
48:31
Speaker 1: a little bit exploitable. Concern or not concerned for you?
48:37
Speaker 2: Not concerned?
48:38
Speaker 1: How come?
48:40
Speaker 2: I think Houston is like a legit, like top five defense,
48:44
Speaker 2: especially against the run. The Bills are bottom of the barrel.
48:47
Speaker 2: They're just they're undersized. This is an undersized team. And
48:51
Speaker 2: I think Matt mullane might miss this game as well.
48:54
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that Ravens game chat,
48:56
Speaker 2: he was he was the changer. Yeah, he was big
48:59
Speaker 2: time and and he basically didn't play the final three
49:01
Speaker 2: snaps of that game because of an injury. So you know,
49:05
Speaker 2: mcdermot's been shut mouth about it, but just reading between
49:08
Speaker 2: the lines, it seems like he is going to miss
49:10
Speaker 2: that switch. To me, the defense that can't afford to
49:12
Speaker 2: lose someone who's poorting him and against the Chiefs team
49:14
Speaker 2: like this, it's going to be deadly for matchups for offensively.
49:18
Speaker 1: Also might be missing wrap in the secondary and they
49:22
Speaker 1: might be down two actually two defensive backs, two starters.
49:26
Speaker 1: So okay, thank you for that. Here was a great
49:30
Speaker 1: you know this this conversation about Patrick Mahomes and the
49:33
Speaker 1: flopping and the penalties, and we talked about it, like
49:38
Speaker 1: I love grouchy Troy Aikman. He's become my favorite announcer.
49:42
Speaker 1: I think his attitude and approach and honesty with everything.
49:46
Speaker 1: He's just entered the fucket. I'm a Hall of Famer
49:48
Speaker 1: and I'm Troy Ikman making eighteen million year. I don't
49:50
Speaker 1: give a shit what I say anymore.
49:51
Speaker 2: He's not Tony Kohneheiser, but he's good.
49:53
Speaker 1: He's he's great though. He's great, So I at first
49:58
Speaker 1: I was like, are the refs going to be cautious
50:00
Speaker 1: calling penalties on the homes giving the blowback this weekend?
50:03
Speaker 1: Will they get a call from the league office? Do
50:06
Speaker 1: you have any concerns about that? And then I have
50:08
Speaker 1: something I heard from on the Ryan Roscilla pod which
50:11
Speaker 1: blew me away.
50:12
Speaker 2: No, because even if you go, you don't watch it.
50:15
Speaker 2: Like the thing I love about Troy against im mad
50:17
Speaker 2: about was that that is when he slid in the
50:19
Speaker 2: middle of the field and the two defenders hit above
50:22
Speaker 2: his head and they flagged it right unnecessary roughness. They
50:25
Speaker 2: flagged it because if those two dudes collide and meet
50:28
Speaker 2: at Momes's head, the three peete is over. That dude
50:31
Speaker 2: is concussed dead on the field. That's why they threw
50:34
Speaker 2: that flag. Like they don't want it to be ended
50:36
Speaker 2: because of a dirty hitter or an injury. They want
50:38
Speaker 2: it to be ended because they lose a game. That
50:40
Speaker 2: was the whole reason the reps were throwing those flags
50:42
Speaker 2: to protect the guy. It's like, that's why I love
50:45
Speaker 2: Troy Ikman losing a shit about It's like, Troy, you
50:47
Speaker 2: probably could have played for five more years if they
50:49
Speaker 2: would protect you the same way. Dude, Like it's just
50:52
Speaker 2: he just like again, I know you love me. He
50:53
Speaker 2: sounds like it just a bitter old man that's just
50:55
Speaker 2: tired of how soft the league has gotten. But it's like,
50:58
Speaker 2: we need this league to be soft. We all have
51:00
Speaker 2: gone through seasons of backups. It is the worst ever
51:04
Speaker 2: watching just terrible quarterback play in this league. So that's
51:07
Speaker 2: why they need to protect guys, especially a guy like Mahomes.
51:09
Speaker 2: So yeah, that that was, you know, the flop I
51:14
Speaker 2: think was what really pissed him off, which everyone online
51:16
Speaker 2: got pissed off about. But that wasn't even flagged. So again,
51:19
Speaker 2: people think that Chiefs got all these flags when you
51:21
Speaker 2: probably break it down it's probably closer to fifty to
51:23
Speaker 2: fifty than people realize. But I guess, you know, as fans,
51:26
Speaker 2: we just get pissed off about this stuff. So yeah,
51:27
Speaker 2: it's it's low hanging fruit. I'm with him, though, it
51:29
Speaker 2: pisses me off to watching Mahomes get all these flags
51:32
Speaker 2: on Keith third downs.
51:33
Speaker 1: Well, for the record, Craigman's always been grumpy. I remember,
51:36
Speaker 1: you know, I've been a reporter for a long time.
51:38
Speaker 1: You have with Sports Illustrated. I went down to SI
51:42
Speaker 1: in nineteen nine, to Dallas in nineteen ninety four. We
51:45
Speaker 1: did an entire week with the Cowboys. We had full access.
51:47
Speaker 1: We did an entire issue of Sports Illustrated about the
51:51
Speaker 1: week with the Cowboys. Me and Rick Tallender was the
51:54
Speaker 1: senior writer who was writing.
51:56
Speaker 2: Thirty Years of the Cowboys favorite time period.
51:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was great, right. It was like the early nineties,
52:01
Speaker 1: and you knew exactly where to hang out, what clubs
52:04
Speaker 1: they were at, Like you'd go hang out. Oh my god,
52:08
Speaker 1: it was amazing, right. But I remember sitting with Aikman
52:10
Speaker 1: in the locker room, and this was when the NFL
52:12
Speaker 1: was changing a lot of the balls and sort of
52:15
Speaker 1: making quarterbacks use different balls, and he was in the
52:19
Speaker 1: locker room testing out a bag of balls, and just
52:23
Speaker 1: so a he's like this fucking league they keep trying
52:26
Speaker 1: to fuck think, like he was just so angry about
52:28
Speaker 1: having to use different balls. Like he clearly just can
52:32
Speaker 1: be a grouchy guy, which I've come to appreciate, which
52:35
Speaker 1: is insane.
52:36
Speaker 2: Imagine imagine being that good looking, having the career he's had,
52:39
Speaker 2: and then being grouchy. Will never make sense.
52:41
Speaker 1: I fucking love it. Uh Risillo had a great stat.
52:44
Speaker 1: Here's a trivia for you. The past two years, Kansas
52:46
Speaker 1: City opponents have been flagged for forty eight penalties in
52:49
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter in ot of one score games. How
52:52
Speaker 1: many have the Chiefs had in the same time period
52:56
Speaker 1: in the same circumstances.
52:59
Speaker 2: Like I said, fifty to fifty, it is forty seven, yeah,
53:04
Speaker 2: right right right near it. So yeah, that's that's what
53:06
Speaker 2: I mean. We're just we're stupid fans. I mean, let's
53:08
Speaker 2: be serious here. That's that's how we are. We we see,
53:11
Speaker 2: we see that they get the calls because it's in
53:13
Speaker 2: these big moments. But it's because the Chiefs are always
53:15
Speaker 2: playing in these big games, and you know, it's been
53:18
Speaker 2: making the rounds today or yesterday. That Chris Jones flag
53:21
Speaker 2: against Tom Brady. You know that that was the last time,
53:25
Speaker 2: like you just said, the last time he lost this game.
53:27
Speaker 2: It was that game on a fourth down, Brady gets
53:30
Speaker 2: an insane call, goes down, ties the game, or wins
53:33
Speaker 2: the game in overtime. It's like, you know, they give
53:36
Speaker 2: the breaks to the guys. That's just how it is.
53:38
Speaker 2: He's always gonna get the calls because it's my homes.
53:40
Speaker 2: But you just broke it down. It's not as egregious
53:42
Speaker 2: as we make it out to be. But you know
53:45
Speaker 2: that's we talk on the time. The refs dictated all
53:48
Speaker 2: of these games, even that that Bills game, that ghost
53:51
Speaker 2: holding call. So Lamar has that pick the Bills of
53:54
Speaker 2: the ball, josh An has a perfect pass. There should
53:56
Speaker 2: be third and three. They called a ridiculous holding playing
53:59
Speaker 2: against the Bills. It wasn't even whold. You just smacked
54:01
Speaker 2: the guy's arms down. So instead of being second and three,
54:04
Speaker 2: it back to help to wherever it was second and nineteen,
54:06
Speaker 2: and then they went three and down and they punted it.
54:08
Speaker 2: So now i'd hear everyone today say, well, that picked
54:10
Speaker 2: name hurt Lamar, and it's like, yeah, because the refs
54:13
Speaker 2: made that call. So that's why. I mean, we talk
54:14
Speaker 2: all the time like you're gonna get your bad calls
54:17
Speaker 2: every game. And like most fans, I just I hate
54:22
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, So no matter what, I'm gonna bitch about
54:24
Speaker 2: the flag. So that's just how it is.
54:26
Speaker 1: The Bills rush defense rush offense is insanely good right now.
54:31
Speaker 1: The best rush defense by success rate in the NFL
54:34
Speaker 1: this past year was the Broncos. They allowed successful rushes
54:38
Speaker 1: thirty three point six percent of the time. In the
54:41
Speaker 1: wild card game, the Bills had a fifty percent success rate,
54:46
Speaker 1: the best against the Broncos all season. The next week,
54:49
Speaker 1: the second best rush defense by success rate was the Ravens.
54:53
Speaker 1: The Bills ran all over the Ravens fifty five point
54:56
Speaker 1: six percent success rate. Should I be concerned about the
55:01
Speaker 1: Bills dominating on the ground against the Kansas City Chiefs.
55:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they obviously have a good run game,
55:10
Speaker 2: But it comes back to Spags. We trust Spags, don't we.
55:14
Speaker 2: I mean he's been good to us. So yeah, like
55:16
Speaker 2: you said, there's gonna be numbers that are gonna point
55:18
Speaker 2: to this Bill's team. But just overall, I just I
55:24
Speaker 2: can't get there because of the number. Brother, That's that
55:26
Speaker 2: to me. The same thing with the Bills last week.
55:28
Speaker 2: I told you it was like it's all about the
55:30
Speaker 2: number here. If I was getting a little more at
55:31
Speaker 2: anything gottter than plus two auto play, that came out
55:35
Speaker 2: to be the right idea. The same thing here. It's like,
55:37
Speaker 2: if you get Josh on a plus three, I'm happy
55:40
Speaker 2: to take a position on him, But anything below that,
55:42
Speaker 2: I just think, well, we just talked about it's an
55:44
Speaker 2: over valued team, and I don't want to get too
55:48
Speaker 2: sucked into the weeds with the numbers because we talked
55:50
Speaker 2: about it last year. Like the Chiefs, they do this
55:53
Speaker 2: to us like they have the twenty second ranked offense,
55:56
Speaker 2: whatever the hell it is, and then none of it
55:58
Speaker 2: makes sense. We know people, but we're living it like
56:01
Speaker 2: that's that's the toughest part here where coming into this one,
56:04
Speaker 2: I'm trying to find an angle to take Josh Allen
56:06
Speaker 2: because I loved last week. I've loved this whole season
56:10
Speaker 2: with him, and I want him to break down the curse.
56:12
Speaker 2: Like we know the history here he's zero and three
56:16
Speaker 2: against Mahomes and you know another funny part at another meme,
56:21
Speaker 2: I love that's going around is poor Josh Allen Bills fan.
56:24
Speaker 2: Even if they win this game, they got to face
56:25
Speaker 2: an NFC East team in the super Bowl, no matter what.
56:28
Speaker 2: So he could slay a bunch of demons and dragons
56:31
Speaker 2: for this organization. He could get through, get over the hump,
56:33
Speaker 2: get through Mahomes and arrow ahead, and then take on
56:35
Speaker 2: an NFC East team to take them down as well.
56:37
Speaker 2: So I get the love and why again another thing
56:40
Speaker 2: in the media, everyone's talking Bill super Bowl. Everyone's picking
56:43
Speaker 2: them now, everyone's all in because we're all sick of
56:45
Speaker 2: this Chiefs team and Mahomes magic. But we know we're
56:49
Speaker 2: getting great value here. How can we not take this number?
56:51
Speaker 2: One and a half? Is just so insane to me
56:53
Speaker 2: that we're actually still getting this number, Like you just said,
56:56
Speaker 2: I thought we'd come in today in to be two
56:57
Speaker 2: and I was gonna have to scramble find As Simon says,
57:00
Speaker 2: that's why I try to jump ahead of you and
57:01
Speaker 2: grab it, because I was like when you did some
57:03
Speaker 2: anything in the Eagles game, like shit, Chad. Chad might
57:05
Speaker 2: be on the Chiefs here, but we agree, this is
57:08
Speaker 2: just it's too good of a number to pass on,
57:10
Speaker 2: right now, there's so much value on this number at
57:11
Speaker 2: this point. So yeah, it's it's tough because the heart,
57:14
Speaker 2: the heart wants the Bills. I think any fan with
57:18
Speaker 2: a soul wants the Bills in that fan base to
57:20
Speaker 2: get to the super Bowl and win it. But it's
57:22
Speaker 2: just a bad spot and this just doesn't feel like
57:24
Speaker 2: the right team with Josh Allen, Like, eventually, I feel
57:26
Speaker 2: like you will get over the hump. I can't see
57:28
Speaker 2: it here, Like he just doesn't to me. He doesn't
57:30
Speaker 2: have the dogs around him. But like you said, it's
57:33
Speaker 2: all laid out there. If they can run the ball
57:35
Speaker 2: no turnovers with him, he has the ball last. Like
57:37
Speaker 2: you said, whoever is the ball last controls that clock, Chad,
57:40
Speaker 2: that's who's gonna win. And we know that bet in
57:42
Speaker 2: this game. That's why it is a coin flip game.
57:45
Speaker 2: And to me, that's why you need to take the
57:46
Speaker 2: value in the Chiefs the coin flip game. The value
57:48
Speaker 2: is on this team right now because it's under the
57:50
Speaker 2: two number of keys, So under the key number of two.
57:53
Speaker 2: If you're just being patient, you want to bet the Bills.
57:56
Speaker 2: I saw a late night a bunch of two twos
57:58
Speaker 2: and a half's popping, especially off. I think I'll get
58:01
Speaker 2: there by game time because I do think Chiefs money
58:03
Speaker 2: will come in eventually as this week goes along.
58:05
Speaker 1: Here as part of my training. I have no soul,
58:09
Speaker 1: so I don't I don't care if Josh Allen slays
58:15
Speaker 1: his demons. And I love Matt Mitchell to death and
58:23
Speaker 1: like his happiness is so important to me, and his
58:26
Speaker 1: happiness during our entire relationship, going back to when he
58:31
Speaker 1: was just a guy who listened to behind the Bets
58:33
Speaker 1: and emailed me when I was at ESPN, nothing has
58:38
Speaker 1: meant more to me outside of my family than his
58:41
Speaker 1: happiness and growth in his career. But I don't care
58:46
Speaker 1: if Josh Allen slays his demons. I think he's a
58:48
Speaker 1: lovely guy. I want the Chiefs. I want history, I
58:51
Speaker 1: want a threepeat, I want dominance. I want things that
58:55
Speaker 1: have never been done before. That's what I'm rooting for.
59:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you.
59:03
Speaker 2: I'd just like to ask you something. How much is enough?
59:07
Speaker 1: Hey?
59:07
Speaker 3: Sorry, this is Matt the producer. I'm just interjecting after
59:10
Speaker 3: the fact the show's over. I'm just re listening to
59:13
Speaker 3: this and I heard that line from Chad. He wants
59:17
Speaker 3: to root for something that's never happened. He's rooting for history,
59:22
Speaker 3: and that is why he's choosing against the Buffalo Bells
59:26
Speaker 3: and for the Kansas City Chiefs to make the Super Bowl.
59:29
Speaker 3: It feels like a totally incoherent point of view and
59:33
Speaker 3: one of the most as nine arguments for batting or
59:37
Speaker 3: rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs.
59:39
Speaker 2: Here a win or lose.
59:40
Speaker 3: Bill's probably lose inconsequential to me in this regard, But
59:44
Speaker 3: I'm sorry that you guys heard that. Instead of cutting it,
59:48
Speaker 3: I'll just let this rebuttal speak for itself.
59:51
Speaker 1: I like to root for teams to be historic, and
59:56
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs can be historic, and I actually
59:58
Speaker 1: get to like rooting for them. Two better coach, much
1:00:02
Speaker 1: better defensive coordinator. I've got the best quarterback in a generation,
1:00:09
Speaker 1: the best tight end in a generation against the middle
1:00:12
Speaker 1: of the Bills d that can't stop anybody. Even when
1:00:15
Speaker 1: Matt Mulano was playing give me the Chiefs.
1:00:19
Speaker 2: I didn't want to do too much of the numbers
1:00:20
Speaker 2: who we were running up against the time. But yeah,
1:00:22
Speaker 2: that's something we didn't get to it more on. But
1:00:25
Speaker 2: just the numbers against tight ends like you saw, Isaiah,
1:00:27
Speaker 2: I like you Mark Andrews. They felt like they're always
1:00:30
Speaker 2: open when Lamar could find them, And you think, we
1:00:33
Speaker 2: really think it's going to change here against you know,
1:00:35
Speaker 2: arguably the greatest tight end it's ever played football and Kelsey.
1:00:38
Speaker 2: So there are a lot of matchups that do favorite
1:00:40
Speaker 2: this Chiefs team, but you kind of nail to how
1:00:42
Speaker 2: the Bills can't pull off this upset. It really is
1:00:45
Speaker 2: all about that run game, ball control and Josh Allen
1:00:47
Speaker 2: and you know, we know Mahome is going to get
1:00:50
Speaker 2: his We also know they're gonna sputter. Like you said,
1:00:53
Speaker 2: they've been inconsistent offensively all season, running the ball and
1:00:56
Speaker 2: a lot of things. So there are ways for the
1:00:58
Speaker 2: Bills to do it. But I am happy we're both
1:01:00
Speaker 2: at a greens here because it was no fun last
1:01:02
Speaker 2: week going against you and then having to buil you
1:01:03
Speaker 2: Sunday night for your love for Lamar. So I'm happy
1:01:06
Speaker 2: we're both in love with us. Number on this Chiefs
1:01:08
Speaker 2: team in minus one and.
1:01:09
Speaker 1: A half Likely and Andrews. By the way, Isaiah Likely
1:01:12
Speaker 1: and Mark Andrews against the Bills combined for nine catches
1:01:16
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty nine yards in one touchdown and
1:01:19
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews was wide open for a game time two
1:01:21
Speaker 1: point conversion. And you and I are in such a
1:01:23
Speaker 1: mind meld that I already had that stat.
1:01:25
Speaker 2: Love it.
1:01:25
Speaker 1: We searched it yesterday. All Right, We're going to dig
1:01:30
Speaker 1: in more on both these games on Thursday. Plus, we're
1:01:33
Speaker 1: gonna reveal the futures matchups bet that Simon and I
1:01:38
Speaker 1: both made before the season began, separate from each other,
1:01:42
Speaker 1: that we talked about on the show that is still
1:01:45
Speaker 1: in play, and so we're going to talk about some
1:01:47
Speaker 1: hedging strategies, and we will also talk about the Super
1:01:50
Speaker 1: Bowl futures we like with the four remaining teams heading
1:01:53
Speaker 1: into conference championship weekend on Thursday. As a reminder, the
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