Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/19/26: DSA Shocking Victory In Florida, Trump Backed Candidate Crushed, US Plots Retreat From Middle East

Transcript

8/19/26: DSA Shocking Victory In Florida, Trump Backed Candidate Crushed, US Plots Retreat From Middle East · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
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  Speaker 3: Good morning, Crystal, I'm stealing your spot here. I'm saying
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: good morning. I can't do it like you are, Sager,
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: But good morning everybody.
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: Welcome to Breaking Points. We have a great show for everyone,
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: don't we.
• 0:43
  Speaker 5: Crystal does Ryan normally good morning for you guys?
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: He does.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: We let her to lib do the good morning so
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: that it's extra high energy, especially after a primary night.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, and it was a big one, shocking dsa
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: victory in Florida that pretty much nobody saw coming. With
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Angie Nixon, she is the first DSA member in history
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: to win a statewide election and be the nominee in
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: this regard, So this is really wild. We also had
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of action really across the country. Alaska, there
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: was interesting things. You had scandal plug Corey Mills who
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: got ousted on the Republican side. Randy Fine made it through,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: but he maybe committed some federal crimes in the process.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: So take a look at some caught on camera moments
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: from Randy Fine. Brace yourself for that one. With regard
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: to Iran, the UE is halting all trade with Iran
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: after claiming that some missiles were fired in their direction.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Jeff Stein is going to join us to break down
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: what is happening in the bond market that's also very
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: much relevant to Iran both here and also our whole
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: intervention with the Japanese yen failed and that may also
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: have dire implications for our bond market. He will explain
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Trump's crypto scam company is now also a bank, So
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: that's exciting something to look forward to, folks. And there's
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: a new book out about the Israel lobby. We're going
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: to talk to authors. Very excited to speak with them.
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: Yes much to discuss today.
• 2:04
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• 2:44
  Speaker 4: Should we get into it, Crystal.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Indeed, big elections last night in Florida in particular, they
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: held their primary contest. There were a number that we
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: had our eyes on. This one I was aware of,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: but I can't say that I was really tracking that closely.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Angie Nixon versus Alex Vindman. He was the sort of
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: hero of one of the Trump impeachments. Nixon is a
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: dsa member firmly on the left of the party, anti Zionist,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: anti genocide, pro Medicare for all. She's a state rep
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: and a union organizer. She is now also the Democratic
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: nominee for Senate in one of the most shocking upsets
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I have literally ever seen. You can see the margin here,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: not particularly close at the end of the day, fifty
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: six percent for Angie Nixon to roughly forty four percent
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: for alex Vinman. Truly, truly a stunning upset here. There's
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: a lot to say about what may have happened, but Emily,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: one of the statistics that is the most shocking is
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Nixon did not even raise a million dollars. She came in,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: you know, just shive a million dollars. In terms of
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: her raise, Alexander Vinman raised some sixteen million dollars. She
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: was you can't even say she was outspent on the airwaves.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: She did not spend on the air waves. She literally
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: spent zero dollars in cable and broadcast television ads. And
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: yet here she has secured an absolutely blow out statewide victory.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: And it is pretty stunning thing to wrap your head around.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you just mentioned the spending gap here.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: Vinman obviously is known for being a resistant superstar on
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: MSNBC all of the time, and you mentioned this was
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: kind of running on being a resistant superstar, had lots
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: of ads about his role in the Trump impeachment effort,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: and has seen, at least here in Washington, DC as
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: somebody you'd think would be a shoeing over a DSA candidate.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: If you talk to Democratic Party consultants up here six
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: months ago, I don't think they ever would have seen
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: this coming, especially if just on paper you mapped out
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: the spending differences Crystal. But it looks to me like
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: a win for the DSA over the resistance in the
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: primary that the DSA has replaced the energy of the
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: resistance has almost there refined the energy of the resistance
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: into something that's much more compelling to voters.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: Well, it certainly has a much more materialist and ideological perspective,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of specific policy demands. And the thing that
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: really has sort of coalesced that coalition is the opposition
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: to the genocide in Israel. I think that has been
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: very central. I think we can't underrate how important it was,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: even in the state of Florida, which is part of
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: what is crazier. I just want to emphasize again there
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: has never been a DSA member to be the major
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: party nominee for a state wide race. This is a
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: historic national first. It has never happened before, and so
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of conventional wisdom is still coalescing
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: about what the hell just happened here. But let me
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: throw into the mix a few factors based on what
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: I can glean about how this race unfolded. And by
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: the way, I've interviewed Angi Nixon a couple of times.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Very impressive leader, very bold, very courageous, has really sort
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: of stood out in the Florida legislature. So I think
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: she really was known in the state. She was kind
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: of a known commodity. Vinman moved to Florida. His brother,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: in fact, represents me here in the state of Virginia.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: So I think there was a sense, Okay, this is
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: a carpetbagger number one, number two. I think there may
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: have been a sense of entitlement there from Vinman. He's
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: looking at all of the massive millions of dollars in
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: financial advantage, all of the backing from the establishment. There
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: wasn't a lot of polling in the race, but the
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: polling that there was had him up pretty solidly, so
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: he didn't feel like he had to do that much
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: other than just put up some TV ads talking about
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: his role in the impeachment and call it a day.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: I know there were a number of forums that he
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: refused to attend, that he wouldn't show up for, he
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: wouldn't really engage with anti Nixon directly, So I think
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: that sense of entitlement may have been an issue as well.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: And then when you just add to that the fact
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: that you have this major ideological divide between the party
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: establishment and the Democratic base on issues like Israel, certainly
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: on issues like Medicare for All, and on issues of
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: the general orientation of the party and how bold they
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: want to be in terms of the politics that they
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: are pushing going forward.
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: So I think.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Vinman didn't meet the moment in any number of ways.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: And then the last factor I would put into this mix,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Emily two is we watched in Michigan how that race
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: really closed down the stretch because you had so much
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: national spotlight. You had tens of millions of dollars flooding
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: in and negative, very deceptive ads about Abdulah's side. He
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: still is able to pull it off almost miraculously, but
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: very much closer race than was ultimately expected. I think
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: Angie Nixon benefited from the fact that this flew under
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the radar, that people were not naturally paying attention to this,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: that you didn't have tens of millions of dollars coming
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: in to trash her and smear her and create a
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: negative impression of her in the state and among the
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Democratic base. I think she really benefited at the end
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: of the day from the fact that this kind of
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: snuck under the radar of national attention. And it also
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: one other piece that I'll say, and someone made this
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: comment online Angie Nixon, I think also Donovan mckinnea up
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: in Michigan really show the power of when you can
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: combine that dsa young, college educated and frequently white, although
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: that is changing demographic base, alongside with a lot of
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: credibility in the black community. That is a really unstoppable coalition,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: especially in a divers state like Florida. And so she
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: really put it together and it's a stunning victory.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: Right So that would distinguish her, of course from Wisconsin
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: and Michigan were Also, by the way, there was a
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: lot of DSA energy to counter the energy from the
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: establishment coalescing around people like Haley Stevens or David Crowley,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: for example, because there were these polling I don't know
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: if you call them mirages. I suppose at this point
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: in the Francesco hung race, it's not totally correct to
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: call it a mirage because she still ended up with
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: forty percent of the vote, which is what a lot
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: of the polls had her exactly at.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: But with these the.
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: Margins, the mirage margins, I guess we could say that
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: didn't happen here. There weren't polls dripping out over the
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: course of the last month saying whoa, there's a race,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: so that we've got a race on our hands here
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: for establishment Democrats to say that and operating under the radar.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: To your point, Crystal, with no money on TV, I
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: think you mentioned somewhere like sixty thousand dollars in paid advertising,
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: paid media advertising total.
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: That's crazy.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: I mean that is wide in big media markets, very expensive.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Nothing on the airwaves. Sixty thousand dollars. I mean that
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: might be some radio ads, maybe that was some like
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Facebook ads or YouTube ads, but it truly was an
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: almost exclusively grassroots campaign. By the way, I don't recommend
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: this campaign tactic. I would suggest that you do all
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: of the above, but she was very limited in terms
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: of her resources, so she did with them what she could,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: and obviously there's no second guessing her now that she
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: is the nominee. One more point, I wanted to make
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: m about the the under the radar element, because I
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: do think that factor is actually really important. Another one
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: that kind of was like that was Minnesota Peggy Flanagan
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: versus Angie Craig, where I think there were two dynamics there.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Peggy Flanagan actually, like Angie Nixon, ends up vastly overperforming
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: her polls, so unlike Francesca Hung and Abdul Aside, where
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: they end up underperforming what was expected, at least in
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: terms of their final vote margin. Here you have two
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: progressive women who have vastly overperformed their polls, both of
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: those races really avoiding a lot of the national scrutiny.
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: And then in.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: The Peggy Flanagan case, I think the other pieces that
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: there's not a lot of electability concerns there because Minnesota
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: is seen as.
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: Pretty safe state. This year. Florida, however, is a very
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: different matter.
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Possibly Florida Democrats are not used to winning there at all,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: so they're just sort of throwing their electability concerns to
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: the wind. The establishment would certainly tell though, Alex Viinman
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: is the one you have to elect if you want
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: to have a shot here. I don't really buy that
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: conventional wisdom, especially after Drew. We've seen what a poor
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: campaigner he ultimately is. I think Angie Nixon is a
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: much stronger and much more compelling candidate. But the traditional
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: electability concerns would augur in the direction of, oh, you
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: can't go for You may like her, but you can't
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: go for her. Perhaps Florida Democrats are like, listen, we
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: nominate your people all the time and they lose statewide,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: So what do we have to lose at this point?
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, so, actually, Vinman raised buckets of money. I'm
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: reading here from a local media which says that he
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: was up through June he had fourteen and a half
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: He'd rease fourteen and a half million dollars. Fourteen and
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: a half million dollars in this race. I mean, that
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: is stunning to lose and to lose by a pretty
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: comfortable margin for Angie Nixon. This probably had something to
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: do with it, Chrystal, you mentioned the mobilization of the grassroots.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Let's take a look here.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: At Vinment being confronted over Israel at a recent campaign event.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: A two.
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: That's my question is just let you know everything, officer,
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: I deny, and I want to know exactly.
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: Why you can't.
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: What's happening.
• 12:12
  Speaker 6: The I c J, the you and the I c
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: C multiple curious rights. For we both have the training,
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: so we know that what's.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: Happening right now.
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: The guys, you only have time.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: That I don't think we're going to see common You're
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: you're staking a position.
• 12:41
  Speaker 7: That's okay, I'll till you so we have a lot
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: of outside.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: Meanwhile, let's take a look at how Angie Nixon handled
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: this issue.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: A three. We are at ten thousand dead Palestinians. How
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: man it will be enough?
• 12:58
  Speaker 7: Also, one of my colleagues just said all of them.
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: Wow. One of my colleagues said all of them.
• 13:10
  Speaker 7: One of my colleagues also stated that this is gonna
• 13:14
  Speaker 7: dry up their fundraising if we vote on this resolution.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: I also want that like.
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: That's what we've become in this state.
• 13:26
  Speaker 7: That's what we've become in this state.
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: Well, we don't care about innocent babies that don't even
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: get the opportunity to blow out their first birthday.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: Candle and Christilly, you and Kyle had Andrew Nixon on
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: KKF not long ago. Let's take a look here at
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: a four a bit from your interview.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: If you were elected to Senate, you know, how would
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: you view our relationship with Israel? Would you cut off
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: aid to them as one example? And you know, what
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: do you think that we should do with regard to
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: that particular country.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure.
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: So first of all, I believe everyone has a right
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: to exist.
• 14:02
  Speaker 7: That means I have I believe that Israelis and Palestinians
• 14:07
  Speaker 7: should have a right to exist. I don't think our
• 14:10
  Speaker 7: tax dollars should be going over to Israel to harm communities.
• 14:15
  Speaker 7: And I would definitely be one of the ones that
• 14:18
  Speaker 7: would vote against sending money to Israel, especially when we
• 14:22
  Speaker 7: have people here in our state who are struggling.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: We have so many folks that are.
• 14:27
  Speaker 7: Living unhoused and homeless on the streets, and that money
• 14:31
  Speaker 7: could be better spent over here as well as spent
• 14:34
  Speaker 7: to make sure that we have access to healthcare, which
• 14:38
  Speaker 7: I know. I believe Israel has universal health care right
• 14:42
  Speaker 7: over there.
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: And so we don't have that over here.
• 14:46
  Speaker 7: And so I don't think we should be sending money
• 14:48
  Speaker 7: to harm communities right now.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: And what about for funding your campaign? You know where
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: you taking any money from corporate packs from APAC.
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: How do you view that aspect of things? Because they
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: think that's so let's be clear.
• 15:05
  Speaker 7: I want folks to know that I don't need special
• 15:08
  Speaker 7: interests of corporate packs or anything like that to tell
• 15:12
  Speaker 7: me what it is that my community needs or to
• 15:16
  Speaker 7: get me to vote a certain way when I become
• 15:19
  Speaker 7: a United States Senator. But I also want folks to
• 15:23
  Speaker 7: know that I don't think corporations or a PAC would
• 15:26
  Speaker 7: want to send me money because I'm actually always fighting
• 15:30
  Speaker 7: for hardworking folks and fighting for unions.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: And that type of stuff.
• 15:34
  Speaker 7: But no, we are not accepting a pack funding or
• 15:38
  Speaker 7: corporate pack funding. We're only accepting money from the people
• 15:44
  Speaker 7: and from people from organizations that represent people.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: She land on that issue, no question about it, Crystal.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I don't know why it looked like a
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: little bo peep that day.
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: But anyway, I was saying you were giving tidwife milkman.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: I think the overnight curls went just like a little
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: too hard in the paint that night.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: Anyway, you've just got done with the goats and yeah, yeah,
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: I was just as Kyle demands, I grab that like
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: whatever that hook thing is, the shepherd I was.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: I was ready for my day anyway. Angie Craig, sorry,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: not Angie greg Antie Nixon. Angie Craig's the one that
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: lost of like Peggy Flannagan. So she that speech that
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: you showed her giving on the House floor in the
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Florida State Legislature. That was in November, you know, that
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: was that was a month after October seventh. So it
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: shows you how passionate and how quickly she came to
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: a conclusion about what was being done in the Gaza strip.
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: The resolution she offered.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: She had one other colleague vote with her on that
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: ceasefire resolution. So it shows a level of courage and
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: I think that that is part of what the Democratic
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: base is really looking for.
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: Where were you when it was hard?
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Not Now that you can see the polls and it's
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: you know, the land escape has shifted, and you know
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: there's a political price to pay. On the other side,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: where were you when it was hard? And where were
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: you on Donald Trump in the new administration when it
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: was hard as well? And I think if you were
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: willing to speak out against genocide and gaza early when
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: it was very, very difficult in the state of Florida,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I might add where it's particularly very challenging, that really
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: augurs well in the mind of the Democratic base. For
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: how you will stand up for other issues of importance
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: to them, you have Vinman. I just have to go
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: back to his comments there where he said something like,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: your view is so out of the mainstream. What are
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: you talking about? Genuinely, what are you talking about? The
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: majority of Americans? Forget about the Democratic base. The majority
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: of Americans view Israel as having committed war crimes. The
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: majority of Americans want a complete rethinking of our relationship
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: with this nation. And in the Democratic base, the numbers,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: even in a state like Florida are going to be
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: overwhelming in favor of blocking any sort of military aid
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: to a country that has committed war crimes, crimes against humanity,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: and genocide. So he found himself and this is again,
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: I think the arrogance of his position. He didn't even
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: feel the need to try to moderate at all on
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: the issue. He didn't try to pull like a Malary
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: McMorrow or some of the ones that you know, try
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: to try to at least moderate some of the language.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: Do I see you and I hear you?
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Not?
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: Noaho's been terrible. There's none of that. He just wouldn't
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: engage at all. And so it shows you how a
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: step he was with the base and also shows you
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: like a level of arrogance with which he comported himself
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: I think throughout this campaign and ultimately led to his defeat.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: We can see the level of confidence. Put a five
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. He had a fundraiser planned and
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: Nantucket I guess he can still go. Nantucket's very beautiful,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: but nothing to raise money for at this point. On
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: the other hand, you've got for the governor's race. Excuse me,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: you have David Jolly, who's actual a former Republican who
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: won the Democratic nomination for the governor's race. I actually
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: think you may have a shot against Byron Donald, who
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: won on the Republican side. We'll talk about the whole
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: fishback of it all in the next block. We'll dig
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: into some of the Republican aspect of this, but he
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: was asked about Angie Nixon. Obviously very contrasting ideological stances
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: between former Republican and now a DSA member in Angie Nixon,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to how he
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: feeled that question. Is this a state Florida that can
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: elect you as governor but also elect progressive Angie Nixon
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: for the US Senate at the same time.
• 19:40
  Speaker 8: Well, we're going to find out. We're going to find out. Look,
• 19:42
  Speaker 8: I reject the DSA, I reject socialism. I'm a capitalist,
• 19:45
  Speaker 8: and I think capitalism provides the greatest amount of economic mobility.
• 19:49
  Speaker 8: I have been with Angie on the trail, and I'll
• 19:51
  Speaker 8: tell you this, She's a fighter. She leaves it all
• 19:53
  Speaker 8: on the field. She goes in every room talking about
• 19:55
  Speaker 8: what I talk about. Can we improve your access to housing,
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: affordable housing, to healthcare? Do you know where to educate
• 20:01
  Speaker 8: your kids? What is it a government can do where
• 20:04
  Speaker 8: the private sector is unable to improve your life? Angie's
• 20:07
  Speaker 8: out there fighting for those same values. I think she
• 20:09
  Speaker 8: and I have a very different approach to this. Look,
• 20:12
  Speaker 8: I reject socialism, I'm a capitalist. We'll see how Florida's
• 20:15
  Speaker 8: voters sort that out in November.
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: Emily, what do you think of that? Answer?
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: Well, this is a man who worked in Republican politics
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: starting in like the nineteen nineties, who was a lobbyist.
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: So I think you're right.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: He probably does have a shot against Byron Donald, which,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: of course we'll get to in the next block, and
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: probably that will depend on swinging some South Florida voters,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: those types who are upset with Trump might be upset
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: with the affordability question and are also upset with socialism
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: in a red state like Florida that is culturally very
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: influenced by Florida by Cubans and Venezuelans who have moved
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: into the state. So maybe he's the candidate on the
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: gubernatorial level. But it'll be really interesting to see what
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: these numbers look like come election day in November, comparing
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: what it looks like for him versus what it looks
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: like for Nixon.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I do think with Nixon it's almost like
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: there's almost no downside here because she's not expected to win, right,
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: no Democrat is expected to win Florida at this point.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: The state has shifted very hard to the right. I
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: don't know what the Florida Democrats have been up to,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: but it hasn't worked out for them very well over
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: the past number of years. Trump won the state I
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: believe by double digits. You know, there's been a hard
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: right shift in the state that is represented in there
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: are state politics and who they elect at the federal
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: level as well. However, if she were able to pull
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: off an upset, that would be completely stunning. But it
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: is a different dynamic than say in Michigan, where it's like, okay,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: if Abdul doesn't win, then you guys, theory change is
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: really wrong because.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: This is a state that's a swing state.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: It's the kind of place you have to be able
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: to win if you're going to be a serious national
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: movement and not just a movement of you know, liberal
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: urban enclaves. And this is a state that, especially in
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: a year when we're publicans are expected to do quite poorly.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: In Donald Trump's approval rating is in the toilet, you
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: should be able to win. Florida is a different dynamics,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: so going to be really fascinating to see how this
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: race unfolds. Of course, she is a tremendous underdog here,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: but again she was a tremendous underdog about against alex Vinman,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: and here she is the Democratic dominee. Couple other races,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: and these one in the complete opposite direction DSA aligned
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: or progressive candidates that we were tracking at the congressional level.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: It could put a seven up on the screen. Oliver Larkin,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: who we've interviewed a number of times. He loses to
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Jared Moscowitz in this South Florida district sixty five to
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: thirty seven percent. To be honest with you, I think
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: this is a fairly decent showing. This is about as
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: tough a district, maybe the toughest district you could run
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: in in the country as a Democratic socialist, massively outspent
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: all of those things. But Moscowitz with the easy win
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: here and we'll go on to the general election.
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: Let's put a eight up on this.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: There were some unique dynamics in this race, and also
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: worth noting here all of these Florida districts got somewhat
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: scrambled because there was a redistricting, So the original districts
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: that Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz were running in that
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: was changed. And then Debbie Washerman Schultz her district was redrawn,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: she decided to run in a district she does not
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: live in, which also has been historically a black opportunity
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: district and has had you know, black representation for decades.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: At this point, there was a lot of upset from
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: local and national black leaders about her jumping into this race. However,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: you had a number of other black candidates, including Elijah
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: Manley who we interviewed on the show yesterday, who sorry
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: not yesterday, day before yesterday, who was the progressive in
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the race. So those candidates were did not consolidate that vote.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Wie Washerman Schultz with forty five percent is able to
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: win in this district that she does not live in,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: and over the upset of some at Lee community leaders there.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: So that's another interesting one. But again, so it wasn't
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: you know, uniform DSA victories across the board.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: I think it.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: Really was Angie Nixon's unique ability to stitch together the
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: DSA coalition with a lot of strong support in the
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: black community that leads to her incredibly strong result. There
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: emily any reflections on that. We also had some other
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Democratic wins in the state that are worth flagging.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: Well, just that because the maps were redrawn, Jared Moskowitz
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: could well lose his seat outright, So Yes, beat the
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: DSA candidate in that race, but he might not hold
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: down to a seat in the House of Representatives. Worth
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: noting that, and Crystal, let's get set a nine here.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: This is from Taniel who notes Florida Democrats flipped the
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: school board of Sarasota County. That was one of the
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: more symbolic strongholds of Moms for Liberty. Taniel notes, which,
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: by the way, in the grassroots conservative movement, that's not nothing,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: that's fairly important because of the kind of twenty twenty
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: era grassroots conservative movement. Republican Party organized a Moms for
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: Liberty was decently important.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: Part of that.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: Also the office of the school board chair in Orange
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: County and an at large city council seat in Jacksonville.
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: So three things just right there.
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: And in racist people weren't paying close attention to or
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: super close attention to. That went Democrats way last night.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: And one war and by the way, Trump won Sarasota
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: County by eighteen points. There was another district put a
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: ten up on the screen. In Pennsylvania. They had a
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: special election in the Pennsylvania Legislature in a legislative district
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Trump carried by eighteen percentage points. This is actually in Butler, Pennsylvania,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: where that assassination attempt on Trump's life occurred. In any case,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: at the time of this tweet, the GUP nominee was
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: up by just forty four votes.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: Now the Democrat all the vote is in.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: The Democrat is in the lead by some I think
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: it was roughly one thousand votes last time I checked,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: very very narrowly. So last I checked, the race had
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: not been called, but Democrats looked to have flipped this
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: special election in a district Trump carried by eighteen percentage points.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: So you know, definitely, all the indications are that Democrats
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: are in a strong position heading into the midterms. One
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: morning name check on the Democratic side is the Senate
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: race up in Alaska. Married So the way they do
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: this is it's the jungle primary. The top four, I think,
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: move on Mary Peltella and Dan Sullivan, the Democrat and
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: the Republican.
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: They were the top two.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: But everyone's paying attention to, Okay, well, who will get
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: more of the vote and what's the margin going to be.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: Peltola's got to feel pretty good because she was sitting
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: at forty seven I think percent and Dan Sullivan was
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: down around forty three percent, So she secured more of
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: the vote in this primary, showing again a lot of
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: enthusiasm for Democrats even in a more conservative state like Alaska,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: and that is one that Democrats really kind of need
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: to win if they're going to have a shot at
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: taking back the Senate.
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, big time.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: And by the way, just that Brandon Duke's race in
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: the Butler area, I've been to that district many times.
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: That's Trump Country. There's just no question about it.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: That's an area where you would probably would have to
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: go back and look precisely, but where you would probably
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: see voting patterns that looked like Obama Trump, then maybe
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: Biden Trump or Trump Trump. But that's Trump Country since
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: the last couple of years. It's like the heart of
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: Trump Country, to be honest. And that's why they did
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: the rally and Butler there. So that's a pretty important
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: result for Democrats to right now be claiming a victory.
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: Very very close election obviously, but really something to see that.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Should we talk about what happened on the Republican side.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Some interesting ones there too, we should.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: Definitely talk about what happened our probably Republican side.
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: Let's move over. We'll move back to Florida here.
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: So Corey Mills has lost the Republican primary for the
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: seventh district. Corey Mills was obviously swamped by all kinds
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: of allegations of misconduct and lost pretty easily double digits.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: Right now, it's sitting at forty seven point three percent
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: for Ryan Elijah who won that race, thirty four thirty
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: four point one percent for Corey Mills, sitting Congressman Corey
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: Mills of And we can put this Mother Jones element
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: up on the screen.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: This is just a little bit.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: If you've missed the Corey Mills scandal, it should be
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: a movie. Frankly, it has been an absolute roller coaster
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: for him over the last couple of years, and the
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: whole district Mother Jones notes just in bullet points, his
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: last eighteen months look like this. February twenty twenty five,
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: Washington DC police nearly arrest Mills after a girlfriend calls
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: nine to one one and accuses him of domesticault assault.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: She recants the accusation after reportedly being pressured to do
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: so by the congressman. May twenty twenty five, Army veterans
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: accused Mills of obtaining a bronze star through stolen valor.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: August twenty twenty five, an ex girlfriend whom Mills was
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: cheating on with the partner who accused him of abuse
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: seeks a restraining order against Mills after the congressman is
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: accused of threatening to potentially share explicit videos recorded during
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: the relationship. Then fast forward to October, just a couple
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: months later, a Florida judge grants the restraining order after
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: finding a key part of the congressman testimony in the
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: dating violence case had not been truthful. House Ethics Committee
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: started investigating him.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: Then last November.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: In May, the Ethics Committee found quote it has authorized
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: more than twenty subpoenas or it revealed that it authorized
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: more than twenty subpoenas and obtained thousands of documents as
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: part of its investigation into serious and complex allegations against Mills.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: July twenty twenty six, NBC News reports that Mills is
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: under investigation by the DOJ and that was into his finances.
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: So Dropsite did some great reporting, but also The Blaze
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: did great reporting. The conservative website The Blaze really started
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: doing great reporting on Mills in the last eighteen months,
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: and may have even been earlier than that, showing his
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: arms dealing, some of which appeared to be through the
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: company while he was still or while he was a
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: sitting member of Congress. Absolutely scandal plagued, but Crystal no
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: real surprise he lost. It was just remarkable to watch
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: him act as though nothing was wrong over the last
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: eighteen months ago about business as usual here and basically
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: hold this head up high despite all of this mounting
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: in just a really ugly way.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: This was one where it was just hard for me
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: to keep in my head all of the many scandals
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: that he was implicated in as you were reading, and
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: I was like, isn't that the arms dealer guy too?
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: And yes, it was our own Ryan Grimm confronted him
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: on the Pierce Morgan Show about the arms dealing aspect
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: of all of this. So in any case, they were
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: able to get this kind of like Chad looking local
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: news anchor guy to run against him. He was able
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: to get a few endorsements from Republicans. Elected Republicans, I
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: think Anna Paulina Luna for example, backed him. Corey Mills
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: on the other hand, did have Trump's endorsement and backing Trump.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: This is another aspect of things. Trump actually took a
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: number of losses last night and has taken a number
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: of losses throughout this primary election cycle. I saw someone
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: who had analyzed this this morning saying that ten Trump
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: back candidates had lost. That matches the higher water mark
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: of his worst electoral season yet, that being in twenty
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: twenty two. And if you put all of the other
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: years that he's been at office together, this is more
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: than the losses that he suffered during those years. So
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: there is something interesting there about voters making their own
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: judgments about some of these candidates, and they just took
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: a look at Corey Mills and said, you know what, buddy,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: this is one, two, three, four or more scandals too
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: much for us. We'll go with this other guy instead.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and again though I mean this guy was I'm
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: reading from a Roger Sollenberger reported drop site. In July,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: Mills and the weapons company he founded a decade ago,
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: pace and were notified that their foreign creditors were moving
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: to liquidate tens of millions of dollars in unpaid foreign
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: debt that Mills has never disclosed to Congress despite his
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: personal liability, so his entire tenure in the House was
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: an interesting glimpse into like a run of the mill
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: DC corruption. Then, obviously the personal allegations did not help
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: with that. Corey Mills make that case that he deserved
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: to retain his seat in Congress. But just there should
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: be a movie coming out of the Corey Mills situation.
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: At the very least he is I don't know, he's
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: a crystal. I was going to say he's.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: A piece of garbage, but maybe I shouldn't too late,
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: too late.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I think the I think the deeds and allegations speak
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: for themselves on that front.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: They sure do now Byron Donald's ended up winning the
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: primary very easily, forty seven point eight percent for governor.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: J Collins came in at twenty five point two percent,
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: and James Fishback social media fueld campaign came in at
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: ten point five percent. Now we can put this Florida
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: politics tear sheet up on the screen. Most you may
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: most remember the story from late last year. Quote one
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: of Florida's largest school districts cut ties in twenty twenty
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: two with James Fishback now Republican candidate for governor following
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: allegations that he had an inappropriate relationship with student who
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: was a minor at the time, According to interviews and
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: records reviewed by NBC News earlier this year, the woman
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: Caana Ford, went to court asking for an order protection
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: against Fishback. She said he quote initiated a romantic relationship
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: with her in spring twenty twenty two and directed her
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: to keep it a secret when she said he was
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: twenty seven and he was seventeen working for his group
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: Incubate Debate. Fishback found of the organization in twenty nineteen,
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: partnering with school districts in Florida to build debate programs
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: for middle and high school students. And at that period
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: in Fishback's life, I can personally say, because I interviewed
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: him a number of times, he was kind of a
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: what's the best way to put it, a kind of
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: norms loving civility, embracing Barry Weiss's style, intellectual dark web centrist.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: It wasn't always clear to.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Me what his ideology really was, because he seemed like
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: somebody who was leaning really hard into the let's all
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: just get back to having civil debates. He literally his
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: group was called incubate debate forsations. Yes it was he
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: he was running and by the way, seemed like a
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: perfectly normal human being at the time. Like it has
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: rattled me unlike I can any other race or individual
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: I can think of that I've met covering politics for
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: a decade. It's this has seen the total personality transformation
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: that Fishback has undergone so rapidly, has been personally rattling
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: because I knew him for several years leading up to this,
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: and he appears to be a totally different person and
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: for some obvious political reasons, right, Like he was running
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: hard against Israel. He was running on what was it,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: like a syntax crystal so against like only fans, taxing OnlyFans,
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: that sort of thing, on a lot of culture war
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: issues that I would say put him somewhere in the
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: proximity of Nick Fuintes. And he was testing this out
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: on a statewide campaign. He was calling Byron Donald's byrone
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: and saying he was like a such an eight candidate.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: So it was a gnarly campaign. And then of course
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: these allegations came out. We would be remiss though to
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: not mention B five. We can put this up on
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: the screen. Another small sample from Zachary Donnini, who writes,
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: but Fishback one eighty nine percent of the vote in
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: the Florida State University precinct. Will aggregate results across these
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: campus precincts tomorrow for a broader look at his performance
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: with younger voters. I didn't go precinct by precinct, but
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: I did go county by county, and he did not
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: appear to have come out ahead in any of the
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: individual counties, and actually didn't even appear to be very
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: close in any of the individual counties.
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: So we'll keep an eye on that.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: But he certainly was drawing crowds at campuses and those
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: sorts of places, but as we've seen before, it doesn't
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: always materialize into something real.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: It wasn't only at this campus. But apparently he won,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: like all the major universities, overwhelmingly eighty nine percent. But
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: then you go and look at the number of votes
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: twenty five yeah, yeah, Byron Donald's got one. So shows
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: you a little bit of a lack of enthusiasm, I
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: guess again amongst the young Republicans, but I think, you know, look,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: Fishback very much positioned himself as like a Graper online
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: groper candidate, and he was greeted with huge crowds and
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: online acclaim and all this stuff both in real life
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: and in Internet.
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: Like Tucker endorsement for example, Yeah sorry, who endorsed him?
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Tucker?
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: He went on Tucker Show and Tucker said like, I
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: hope you do well.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Oh great, And Kyle Rittenhouse apparently also voted for him.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: So some interesting coalition building that he's doing there not
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: enough to prevail in a primary. I think this isn't
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: this around where the polls that he would ultimately end
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: up somewhere like in very low single digits, So I
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: think they pretty much captured what was going on here.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: We were debating before the election started what would happen,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and we thought it would either be a total flop
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: or you know, something that was surprising, and we were
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: kind of leaning in the direction of total flop because
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: we just imagine all these young guys who it's not
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: even that they really care about the electoral result. It's
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: more of sort of like a performative. You know, this
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: guy's an influencer, and I like this influencer versus I
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: actually think he's going to be governor of the state
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: of Florida. So I'm sure there were many bros in
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Florida who kind of liked him but didn't even bother
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: to like register to vote, let alone go out and
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: vote for this guy.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: Or by the way, they maybe don't want him to
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: be an elected official, but they find him like to
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: be a compelling Internet personality.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: It's I think it's worth pointing out that. I mean,
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: you mentioned although like just blatantly racist, like race baiting
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: crap he was doing, I think it's fair to deem
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: his views genuinely anti Semitic, even though that word gets
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: started around way too much in terms of the way
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: he was critiquing Israel. But he's also just a total
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: shape shifter. To your point, pill are digging up old
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Jubilee clips of him. He was in the Jubilee versus
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Destiny sounding completely different than how he sounds today. So anyway,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: I think between him and we can talk about the
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Randy Fine versus Dan Belsarian race got to be one
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: of the most loathsome contests in human history. Between the
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: two of those individuals, you could see, I guess the
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: limits of Graperism as an actual political electoral force in
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: the Republican party at this point. However, you have to say,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: with young Republicans, this has a lot of appeal, and
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: that is something that the party is going to have
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: to grapple with quite a bit over the years.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: Well, I do want to say, I mean, I don't
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: think ten percent is nothing. And we were just batting
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: around yesterday what it might look like, and I was
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: vacillating between like either two percent or twenty percent, and
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: I was thinking it would be one or the other.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: Ten percent is absolutely not nothing at all.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: And one of the things.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: That's worth looking at here is Ryan McComb of vote
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: hub looked at the precincts and showed that Byron Donald's
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: dominated Florida's oldest precincts.
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: Now it's the tart, says.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: Vote share in the August Republican primary for governor group
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: by average adult age of precinct residents the precinct where
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: they're grouping it with under thirty five, Fishback was up
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: at about thirty one percent. Now that's still a minor
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: already Collins, between Collins and Donald, Byron Donald's they were
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: over fifty percent, So Fishback thirty percent when it was
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: thirty five to forty five fourteen percent, forty five to
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: fifty five, he's at eleven percent and then fifty five
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: and up six point nine percent. Will curious to be
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: would be curious to hear who these like seventy year
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: old Florida voters.
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: Casting the bouts for James fishback.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: But those under thirty five precincts average by vote hub
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: thirty percent. So again, hardly nothing, hardly insignificant. That's something
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: for the GIOPEDO to certainly grapple with.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt about it. Should we get into this,
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Randy Fine, we must reach here. We must because there
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: was there's a lot going on there. So let's put
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: the results up first. Randy Fine, who is the most
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: repellent bigoted person, I would say in the United States Congress,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: and that is a very very high bar at this point,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: was victorious in his primary against another extreme bigot, Dan Pilsarian.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: Put B six A up on the screen. Here we
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: can see the results, very easy victory, fifty seven percent
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: to eighteen point seven percent. Now there was something a
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: little bit weird that happened here, which is the first
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: results that came out actually had Bilsarian within range. He
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: was at like, I don't know, just under forty percent.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: It was like a forty sixty kind of a race,
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: and I was like, oh, interesting, what's going on here?
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: It must have been a mistake because then those were
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: taken down and there was a correction. Of course, Bilsarian
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: is seizing on this to say this was definitely rigged,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: they took.
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: My votes away, et cetera.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: But in any case, appears to have been a big
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: victory here for Big Randy Fine. Earlier in the day, however,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: let's put B six up on the screen. He was
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: out door knocking and was waiting for someone to answer,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: and you know, standing around unmistakable.
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: Is this someone's ring camera footage body sot.
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: Don't even need to see the faith to know who
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: this is.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: And here he is rifling through the mail of whoever's
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: doorstep he's on here. Why, I couldn't tell you, but
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: that is extremely creepy, and it is also a federal crime.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what's going on there with that, Emiline,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: but if I was that homeowner, I would definitely be
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: looking into what I could do legally to pursue some
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: sort of avenue here.
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I'm just glad that he was getting
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: some exercise, crystal.
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: That's very kind of you have.
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: It's good to see. It's good to see. Now.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Hakim Jeffries went after Dan Bolzarian and said, the hateful
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: campaign being run by Dan Bazarian in Florida is blatantly
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: any Semitic and shocks the conscious. People of goodwill, regardless
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: of political affiliation, must reject his vile attacks on the
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Jewish community. This cannot and will not stand. And then
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: we should also.
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: Which is true?
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: I mean Bilzarian is blatantly yes, anti Semitic, you know,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: with you know, rehabbing Hitler. It's really gross stuff, right,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: This is not a borderline, like you said, from the
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: river to the sea.
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: This is he.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: I don't think he would even deny the level of
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: anti Semitism that he brings to the table. That's kind
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: of his whole thing. So yes, it was kind of
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: mary and is gross at a bigot.
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: It was kind of bigot on bigot in this particular
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: Republican primary. Let's put the next element up on the screen, Randy, Fine,
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: many will remember posted once. If they force us to
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: choose the choice between dogs and Muslims is not a
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: difficult one.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: So that was the state of the race for.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: Republicans, called for nuken Gaza, let them all starve. Just
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: so many islamophobic, blatantly bigoted posts you could not even
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: keep track of them. And look again, fine for Hikim
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: Jeffries to call out Dan Bilzeri, and I think that's
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: entirely warranted. Where is the condemnation of Randy Fine, who
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: is not only an equally bigoted person openly and broadly so,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: but also has been in a position of power to
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: act on those bigoted inclinations. So yeah, just very disturbing
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: race here between one individual who hates all Muslims another
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: individual who hates all Jews, and pretty gross to have
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: that be a dividing line in a political contest, But
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: may not be the last time that we see that
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: particularly dynamic.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: And before we move on, I do just want to
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: note there was a candidate in this race who came
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: in at thirteen and a half percent named Aaron Baker,
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: who Ryan and I interviewed about a year ago. He
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: was a contractor in the area who was disgusted by
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: Randy Fines bigotry, got into the race a normal guy,
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: and so listen thirteen and a half percent if Dan
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: Bilzarian hadn't been in the race, and I'm sure, I
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: mean Bilzarian right now with ninety nine percent of the
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: votes in is at eighteen point seven percent, so higher
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: than Fishback, significantly higher than Fishback, almost double Fishback's vote
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: total percentage. But that's unfortunate because if there had been
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: a little bit more room for Aaron, I mean he was,
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: he was really, he was literally just a normal guy
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: who was trying to get involved. People can go back
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: and watch that interview. Still thirteen and a half percent,
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: you know, for having basically no money, I say, good
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: for you, Aarren.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Baker, and not being an influencer with like a national
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: brand and name for gen Z. For any guys, remember
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: any guys did that interview, I.
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: Was gonna say for gen Z.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: They may not know the Bilzarian War, but Crystal, when
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: we were younger, in the heyday of Instagram, when Instagram
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: was new in the world, the word influencer was still
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: a vague term that boomers were unaware of.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: Dan Bilzarian was not political at all.
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: He was just a dude who was like flying around
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: on private planes with guns and naked women and was
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: like one of the most popular people on Instagram period
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: and like kind of very famous.
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Indeed, so there you go.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: I guess all of that gets you eighteen percent versus
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: Randy Fine. So one of the two very odies individuals
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: very likely headed back to Congress because it was it's
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: a very republican district. So even in a year like this,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think that there's much chance that Randy Fine
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: is going down.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: Well, let's head over to the Iran conflict. We can
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: put the first element up on the screen. This is
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: from drop site. The United Arab Emirates has halted all
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: trade with Iran after accusing it of launching missiles. This
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: happened yesterday. The UAE Defense Ministry, according to drop site,
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: said its air defenses detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran,
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: the first falling outside its territorial waters and the second
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: within them, with a phone alert also warning residents in
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: the UAE of a potential missile threat. The UA Foreign
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: Ministry then announced it was halting all trade, commercial exchanges,
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, citing regional escalations.
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said completely rejected the claim that
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: it launched those missiles targeting a Murati territory, calling it
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: contrary a good neighbor relations and damaging to efforts to
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: build trust. Regional Trustee urged regional states to avoid quote
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: baseless accusations against Iron, citing what he called the history
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: of US and Israeli quote false flag operations in the region. Now,
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: if we then move on to another major update from
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: yesterday in the New York Times, just to put these
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: two things together, two ships passing through the Straight of
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: Horn Moves are attacked. Two ships and the Straight of
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: Her Moves were attacked in recent days, killing at least
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: one sailor. Maritime officials said on Tuesday as a declining
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: number of vessels brave the dangerous passageway. Now, you can
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: see in the chart from the New York Times that's
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: up on the screen right now if you're listening to this,
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: the five day moving average peaked in late June and
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: has just continued to go back down ever since. So
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: it's at a pretty low level somewhere between. It looks
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: like it's around ten ships. The pre war average, of course,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: was one hundred and thirty ships. Meanwhile, Crystal Let's also
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: note a big Washington Post report from yesterday Pentagon weighing
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: smaller US military presence in Golf once the Iran war ends.
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: This is a piece that reports the Pentagon is evaluating
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: its military footprint in the Middle East in an early
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: sign of the Iran wars potential to transform the US
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: presence in the region. According to eight people, including officials
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: and others familiar with the matter, one of the key
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America's large overseas
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes.
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: Two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said so that
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: as ships through the Strade of Horror moves being attacked
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: and UAE says that a missile two missiles were launched
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: towards the territory.
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: No sign, no sign of.
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: De escalation in site Crystal. But of course that is
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: apparently the same story every single day.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Now, this washingt Post story is very interesting, with them
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: acknowledging that they're considering totally changing the basing strategy through
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: the region. Of course, it has a little bit of
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: a vibe of like you can't fire me. I quit
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: where we were. We may not have a lot of
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: options for going back into the region, not only because
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: of Iran's demonstrated ability to destroy our bases around the region,
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: but also those Gulf Arab allies that were previously hosting
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: us are not going to be really eager to welcome
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: us back in with open arms, given that, rather than
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: demonstrating that our positions there served as a protective shield,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: they made those countries' targets. So I'm not sure that
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: they were going to be really open to allowing us
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: to come back and rebuild our bases and re establish
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: the positions that we had previously. But more to the point,
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: really doesn't make sense to do so at this point anyway,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: given how badly that basing strategy has been revealed to
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: be a failure and create a lot a lot of
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: vulnerabilities even before the war started. Before we started the war,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: we pulled a lot of service members from those bases.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: You know, we routinely have something like forty thousand troops
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: stationed throughout the region. We pulled a lot of those
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: from those bases had them how and civilian hotels, which
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: is not really a moral, ethical thing to do. But
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: in any case, because we recognized that there was a
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: lot of vulnerability there, but I don't think anyone knew
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: just how much and how much damage the Iranians would
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: be able to exact against US in the region. So
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: in any case, I found it very interesting this leak
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: to the Washington Post that, Oh, we're thinking about maybe
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: changing our strategy here. Not We've been humiliated and forced
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: out of this region at the point of a gun,
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: basically the barrel of a gun, and are going to
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: have to retreat to whatever we can get away with
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: here from here on out.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and worth noting this NBC News report as well,
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: which NBC News says they got their hands on government
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: documents from Europe and then they were verified by a
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: Western official that show Russia shipping explosives through Ron to
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: bolster its missile and drone arsenal in the US war.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: That wouldn't entirely surprise me if it's true.
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: Crystal.
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: The sourcing, though, is worth I guess pausing on they
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: have European government documents that a Western official verified. That
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: does seem like it could be a piece of well
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: placed propaganda to get people more interested in the conflict
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: or to gin up more of an appetite for the war.
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: It's not going to work.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it could also be this could be as sort
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: of Ukrainian planted intel as well. Of like, see the Russians,
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: they're not only against us, they're against you directly in
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: our run run, They're helping your adversary here. So there's
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: all kinds of people who would have all sorts of
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: incentives to plant this intel and pushing out to NBC News.
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: So we have to take all of these things with
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: a grain of salt. To your point, though it also
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me. It's true. Clearly, you know, the Russians
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: do have an interest in bogging us down and Iran
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: and getting us to expend our munitions and our interceptors
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: and have our bases destroyed and be completely preoccupied there
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: so that we can't help much on the Ukraine and
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: are broader European front. So they certainly would have motivations for,
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: you know, having this level of partnership with Iran as well,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: and there have been some indications as well that they've
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: helped with some of the Iranian targeting, although I think
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Iran is also fairly capable in terms of their own
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: ability to identify targets for attack.
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, now you wanted to also discuss this Financial Times piece.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: Soaring diesel prices rip across US economy, not as priced
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: to anybody hearing it, because you're living it. A surge
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: in diesel prices, the ft reports, is dealing a powerful
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: blow to industrial America, pushing up costs for businesses and
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: consumers across the US ahead of midterm election the pump elections.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: The pump price of diesel hit a five dollars five
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: forty seven dollars a gallon on Tuesday, approaching its all
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: time high of five dollars and eighty two cents a goawn,
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: look at how close that is to the all time
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: high five point forty seven, heading to the all time
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: high potentially a five to eighty two at some point
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: as wars in the Middle East and Europe hobble production
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: and throttle global supplies. Prices have jumped eight percent in
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: the past month, while the gap between the cost of
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: diesel and crude oil, known as the crack spread, has
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: hit a record high in recent days in a sign
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: of the deepening supply shock. The price surge has driven
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: out costs for truckers and farmers that are set to
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: ricochet through the broader economy, reigniting inflation and squeezing already
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: thinly stretched American consumers. Yes, people know obviously that when
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: diesel prices go up that ripples throughout the rest of
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: the economy. That is something that has all kinds of
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: downstream consequences.
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: And so again, just.
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: The all time high is five dollars and eighty two
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: cents a gallon right now, yesterday five dollars and forty
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: seven cents a gallon crystal wow.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And so what we're feeling at the pump in
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: terms of regular gasoline, there is a much higher price
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: being paid for diesel. And yes, we have all learned
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: through the COVID inflationary period just how much of an
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: impact that has. So even if somehow a miracle and
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: the straight of hor moves opened and the war ended
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: and there was peace range throughout the world, we are
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: going to be dealing with the supply shocks in the
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: bottlenecks from what has already been done for months, if
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: not years to come. Food prices are going to go up.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: I was reading farmers who are facing foreclosure now because
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: I think of the double whammy. They're facing double whammy
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: at least because they're also dealing with a lot of
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: climate problems. But you have not only the increased cost
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: of diesel, which all the farm equipment of course runs on,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: but increased cost of fertilizer as well thanks to this war.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Then I've already come up with a triple whammy here.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: Then you've got the tariffs which really dramatically impacted them
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: as well. And you can see the political nexus of
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: this very clearly. I think it's entirely likely Democrats win.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: Certainly the governorship in Iowa. Senate is definitely on the
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: table as well, because this is a rural farming state.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: Farmers have been extremely hard hit and they've had it
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: so whereas in one point zero, you know, they were
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: willing to put up with the tariffs. They understood that
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: there was a rationale behind it that maybe in the
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: long run would in order to everyone's benefit, And I
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: think there was a kind of a willingness to sacrifice
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: there some on behalf of a president that they truly
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: believed in. Here we are many years down the road,
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: and it's just one thing after another thing after another thing,
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: and they're at their wits end in terms of the
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: family farmer, to the extent that exists even exists anymore,
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: after Big agg has taken over so much market share,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: you know, in the farming world. So in any case,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: this is really hitting farmers hard. But of course it's
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: going to show up in all of our budgets as
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: food costs continue to climb and cause of basically everything
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: is impacted by diesel because this is the primary mode
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: of shipping across the country. So definitely want to pay
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: attention to and we talked yesterday Sager and I about
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the diesel crack spread, which is just an indication of
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: two things. Number One, that the market is completely screwed
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: up and refining capacity is pushed to the absolute brink.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: One more, Let's say there's a bad storm that takes
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: down a refiner. Let's say Ukraine continues to hit Russian
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: refinery capacity. Let's say one of the the states that
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: are war torn in Africa has a huge refining issue.
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: We've seen some of that as well.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Any additional strain really is just going to push that
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: system to its breaking points. So the pressure continues to
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: mount here with obviously no end in sight, and a
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: lot of the political horizon having basically run out now
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: for Trump at this point, midterm elections are just around
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: the corner.
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and obviously the memorandum of understanding expired with nothing
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: else coming from it.
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: Trump did push back the Canadian tariffs. He said that
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: they're continuing to negotiate. That was supposed to be what yesterday,
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: but he posted late on true social that he was
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: postponing the terriffs because they were in good negotiations. Folks
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: may remember about a month ago when you threatened those
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: massive retaliatory tariffs on Canada. Looks like that's not going
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: to happen at least as he threatened at first. But
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: just a reminder the numbers that came out last Wednesday, again,
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: this was a war that was pitched, as you know,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: two to four week bombing run basically is when US
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: senator told me back in the winter or the early spring.
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: US inflation declined slightly last month as the cost of
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: gas and grocery slipped, though prices are still rising more
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: quickly than before the Iran war, posing challenges for the
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: White House as the midterm elections near. Consumer prices increased
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: three point four percent in July from a year ago,
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: down slightly from three points five percent in June. So
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: what was again kind of heralded as a decline in
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: the growth of inflation is still three point four percent,
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: which puts Trump in territory. I believe it was three
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: point two percent when he took over from Biden. It
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: maybe have a bit lowered from that. I would have
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: to go check back, but it was two point four
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: percent before the Iran War, so it puts him in
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: territory that's well beyond where he was literally right before
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: this started. And as a reminder, we were just talking
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: earlier on the block about two ships being hit in
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz in recent days as well, with
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: about ten a daily average of ten ships passing through
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: the strait. That was one hundred and thirty before the war.
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: So Crystal just an abject disaster.
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: However you look at it.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and let's take a look at how the Iranians
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: are responding, at least rhetorically, to the current state of affairs.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: This is some statements from Golliboff that job Site wrote
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: up we can put up on the screen. He says
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: that Hormuz will not reopen until the US honors the
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: Islamabad memorandum. That's some ore miorandum of understanding. To be
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: honest with you, I feel like that is a bit
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: of a walk back from some of the even more
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: maximalist demands that have been made from the Iranians in
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: recent weeks. But in any case, he says until the
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: US implements its commitments under the memorandum, including lifting the blockade,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: releasing frozen assets, lifting oil, sanctions, ending threats and military
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: operations on all fronts, and the other greed conditions, the
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: strait will not reopen. Portrayed them meorandum as evidence of
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: a US Israeli defeat, saying Iran's military pressure and diplomacy
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: reinforce one another. Because Washington breached the agreement, he said,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: the military field must again supp or diplomacy with action.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: The pause in fighting, he added later on, rebuild defensive
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: capababilities and prepare to impose a heavier defeat in response
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: to further US aggression. He also talks here about living costs,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: how Washington is trying to weaponize inflation and economic hardship.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: He urges the government to expand better fund electronic credits
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: for essential food protect families purchasing power and avoid policies
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: that could intensify public anger. He also says that Iran
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: needs to reduce consumption, but rejected higher prices on gas
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: inside Iran, and also warned rival factions against exploiting wartime
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: pressures to begin campaigning or mobilizing supporters against one another.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: In any case, the key part here to me is
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: where he says the military field must be support to
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: play with action, in that they are preparing to impose
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: a heavier defeat in response to further US aggression. There
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: was a big piece that we discussed yesterday in the show,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: I think from the Wall Street Journal about the quote
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: unquote hidden plan or secret plan for Iran to go
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: on the offensive in the war. I don't think it's
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: secret if you're listening to their words whatsoever to question
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: whether it's bluster or not. But there is a lot
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: of logic to the idea that they see that we're
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: in very precarious position politically, economically, and with our munition stockpile,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: with the morale of our troops stationed thround the region,
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: and certainly our sailors on board those hell cruises.
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: Has Sowker put it on those.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: Carriers, So they know that we're in a really particularly
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: vulnerable and weak place right now. They also know that
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: the game we want to play is to slowly squeeze
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: the life out of them. Why would they just sit
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: there and take it when they do have other options.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: So that's why I would not be surprised if threatening
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: words from them are not just bluster at this point,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: but that it could be action. And that's why I
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: also I took great interest in the allegations for the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: UAA yesterday that missiles had been fired in their direction.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and obviously Aron knows that Trump right now is
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: trying to get affordability to be a slightly better or
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: neutralized that issue for Republicans because he has elections coming up.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: So that is certainly weighing in their strategy as well,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: no question about it.