Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Liquidity Incoming?📈Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Liquidity is starting to pour into the market. Today, we'll
- 0:02Speaker 1: break it down with you. We've got a special trader on,
- 0:04Speaker 1: so we'll get into.
- 0:06Speaker 2: All of that.
- 0:06Speaker 1: You've probably heard me mention Uphold before, and there's a
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- 0:18Speaker 1: debit card is the best example of that. It lets
- 0:21Speaker 1: you spend your crypto or your cash anywhere Visa is accepted.
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- 0:34Speaker 1: Download the Uphold app for more and get started. Let's
- 0:37Speaker 1: kind of start off first with a clip because this
- 0:40Speaker 1: gets into the potential of where this could be going
- 0:43Speaker 1: with it, especially on the S & P over the
- 0:45Speaker 1: next 18 months.
- 0:46Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 0:48Speaker 3: We're going to 10,000 or beyond by the end of
- 0:49Speaker 3: the decade. The roaring 20s in full effect. Why? Because
- 0:53Speaker 3: earnings are amazing.
- 0:55Speaker 2: Evercore this morning.
- 0:56Speaker 3: Long-term stock market trend continues to be higher. We have
- 0:59Speaker 3: the potential for a FOMO-driven overshoot. SPX 9000 is attainable
- 1:06Speaker 3: in the next 12 months.
- 1:07Speaker 2: I think you can get to 10,000 in the next
- 1:09Speaker 2: 18 months. I think really what's happening as you move
- 1:11Speaker 2: towards the end of August is the market's becoming more tactical.
- 1:15Speaker 3: The market is identifying opportunities.
- 1:17Speaker 2: That is not a reason to sell.
- 1:19Speaker 4: That's actually indicative of a market that is waiting to
- 1:23Speaker 4: reaccelerate as we move into the fall and broaden out
- 1:27Speaker 4: once again.
- 1:28Speaker 3: All right.
- 1:29Speaker 2: So listen, guys, you know me. I'm a perma bull,
- 1:31Speaker 2: I believe.
- 1:32Speaker 1: I look at this, though, in a reality and I
- 1:34Speaker 1: just say, OK, there's yes, the earning seasons have continued
- 1:38Speaker 1: to perform. At some point, though, I think we are
- 1:41Speaker 1: going to run into a challenge, I think, with what's
- 1:43Speaker 1: going on in the AI stock. So I thought, hey,
- 1:45Speaker 1: let's bring one of our traders in.
- 1:47Speaker 2: How are you, Evan?
- 1:48Speaker 4: Doing well. Great to be on, Paul. Man, that's a
- 1:52Speaker 4: lot of hopium with the S & P 500.
- 1:53Speaker 2: What do you think about that? That's a that's quite
- 1:57Speaker 2: a target, right? And it's coming from CNBC.
- 2:00Speaker 4: Yeah. My main view, and that's interesting that, you know,
- 2:03Speaker 4: I mean, my main view has always been that towards
- 2:06Speaker 4: the end of this decade, we top somewhere between 8
- 2:09Speaker 4: to 10K. So it kind of aligns with that. But
- 2:11Speaker 4: 10K that quickly is kind of, you know, it's a
- 2:13Speaker 4: little over. Yeah, that's a little bit. That's like a
- 2:16Speaker 4: 30% gain, you know, or 25% gain. And that doesn't, yeah.
- 2:21Speaker 1: Yeah, that might be the best performing period ever, I think. Now, granted,
- 2:25Speaker 1: there's a lot happening in the markets. By the way,
- 2:27Speaker 1: I didn't want to cut you short, but I do
- 2:29Speaker 1: want to make sure everybody knows where to follow you.
- 2:31Speaker 2: And that is over on Evan Aldo on YouTube.
- 2:34Speaker 1: You guys can catch Evan out there doing everything on trading.
- 2:37Speaker 2: He also does a great live.
- 2:40Speaker 1: Stream, which teaches you how to use some of these
- 2:42Speaker 1: market tools. So check it out over there. One thing though, Evan,
- 2:46Speaker 1: I want to lead off with, you know, beyond that,
- 2:48Speaker 1: you look at the U.S. economy, 162,000 jobs in August. This,
- 2:52Speaker 1: of course, expectations were at 55K. This was crazy, way
- 2:56Speaker 1: over performance. Were you expecting jobs to come in this hot?
- 3:02Speaker 4: No, no, it was high. Unemployment is going down. I mean,
- 3:05Speaker 4: we'll see if that can last, but No, unexpected. But
- 3:10Speaker 4: the thing is, Bitcoin's still kind of going down. So
- 3:12Speaker 4: the market's kind of already factored that in. So it
- 3:16Speaker 4: doesn't make me change my mind about potentially seeing a
- 3:18Speaker 4: correction between now and midterms, which makes sense for seasonality.
- 3:22Speaker 4: You kind of want a healthy correction. September and October
- 3:26Speaker 4: are going to be more your bearish months, typically, right now.
- 3:29Speaker 4: And in addition to that, if we look at the
- 3:32Speaker 4: chart here on Bitcoin versus the S & P 500, Obviously,
- 3:36Speaker 4: last time, 74% correction downward. This time, 61% correction downward
- 3:41Speaker 4: in this market. I mean, the old one was 83%.
- 3:43Speaker 4: So you notice the pattern here. It gets less catastrophic
- 3:45Speaker 4: every time. I do think when you look at some
- 3:48Speaker 4: of these time frames here, your momentum wave is starting
- 3:51Speaker 4: to clip down, and it would align with potentially a
- 3:54Speaker 4: very healthy correction. This is Bitcoin against S & P 500,
- 3:57Speaker 4: maybe a 10% drop down between now and midterms. And also,
- 4:01Speaker 4: if you look at Bitcoin itself, it would align for
- 4:04Speaker 4: a very healthy correction here. around 15% down, I'm looking
- 4:08Speaker 4: at between now and midterms potentially. You are losing a
- 4:10Speaker 4: little bit of steam. I think it's a little bit
- 4:12Speaker 4: early to say if this rally is completely over. You
- 4:14Speaker 4: could see some more wicks upward, but I think a
- 4:16Speaker 4: lot of it is over. And when you do get
- 4:18Speaker 4: this next VWAP coming down, momentum shift on the daily,
- 4:21Speaker 4: that's a bearish divergence potentially forming, that could be a
- 4:25Speaker 4: correction down about 15% down to some of these areas,
- 4:28Speaker 4: maybe even down to 65% between now and midterms. But
- 4:31Speaker 4: that's a healthy correction. Wow.
- 4:33Speaker 2: Okay, so that's with a correction.
- 4:35Speaker 1: We had Tom Lee on earlier this week talking about
- 4:38Speaker 1: September could be a bullish month. You're telling me that September, October,
- 4:42Speaker 1: most likely bearish. I don't know which one you guys
- 4:45Speaker 1: believe out there. Let me know in the comments down
- 4:48Speaker 1: below if you believe Evan's right or Tom Lee is right.
- 4:51Speaker 1: One thing is for sure, the system's broken. You know
- 4:54Speaker 1: the system's broken when stocks are falling after the U.S.
- 4:56Speaker 1: unexpectedly added this much job growth. And of course, That's
- 5:00Speaker 1: the whole point. Why would we see that if we're
- 5:02Speaker 1: continuing to see the job market tripling?
- 5:05Speaker 4: Yes, you are missing something. It actually is that, did
- 5:07Speaker 4: you see the tweet? Through social, Trump is now threatening Warsh,
- 5:12Speaker 4: trying to negotiate or threaten him if he doesn't cut rates.
- 5:15Speaker 4: So how does Warsh agree to that? This is some issue.
- 5:20Speaker 1: Well, I think the issue is that, because I agree
- 5:23Speaker 1: with Tim, I don't think Trump actually understands how the
- 5:27Speaker 1: Fed works if this is actually what he's trying to do, saying, hey,
- 5:30Speaker 1: we're going to actually threaten to be able to go
- 5:33Speaker 1: into countries out there, and this has nothing to do,
- 5:36Speaker 1: especially on the trading side, it has nothing to do
- 5:38Speaker 1: with what's happening with the Fed.
- 5:40Speaker 2: So I think you're right.
- 5:42Speaker 1: But again, don't you think the market has seen enough
- 5:44Speaker 1: of his rhetoric to not trade it?
- 5:48Speaker 4: Well, I think that, I think a lot of people,
- 5:50Speaker 4: there's that seasonality to that September, October. And if there's the, the,
- 5:54Speaker 4: the fate, the betting odds are in favor on Cal
- 5:56Speaker 4: sheet and poly market for actually a hike right now. So,
- 5:59Speaker 4: and it's close. So it's not really factored in when
- 6:02Speaker 4: it's like 51, 50, 50 kind of generally. So, oh man,
- 6:07Speaker 4: you know, I think that seasonality is going to get
- 6:09Speaker 4: the best of us here and you're going to see
- 6:10Speaker 4: a healthy kind of pullback between you know, now in midterms.
- 6:14Speaker 4: And if you just backtest that in your S &
- 6:16Speaker 4: P 500, basically every single time since the 70s, you
- 6:19Speaker 4: generally always see that. So healthy correction. Let's go with that.
- 6:23Speaker 4: Healthy correction.
- 6:24Speaker 2: All right.
- 6:24Speaker 1: Well, and there you have it right now on the
- 6:27Speaker 1: no change at 49. Now we have a 52% because.
- 6:30Speaker 2: Of what the jobs came in.
- 6:32Speaker 1: That's up quite a bit because this was trending down
- 6:35Speaker 1: at around 40% just yesterday. And then, of course, the
- 6:38Speaker 1: bump up on jobs now where Warsh has to kind
- 6:41Speaker 1: of deal with the data that Everybody was concerned about,
- 6:44Speaker 1: and now it's here. You've got also ETFs pouring in
- 6:48Speaker 1: right now, and it's coming in in a big way.
- 6:51Speaker 1: They recorded $ 863. 2 million in net inflows.
- 6:54Speaker 2: This was on September 3rd.
- 6:55Speaker 1: This is for Bitcoin products, $ 723.
- 6:58Speaker 2: Million of that.
- 7:00Speaker 1: When you look at ETH funds, $ 140 million in capital.
- 7:03Speaker 1: Previous week, $ 440 million. And then the current quarter remains
- 7:05Speaker 1: down $ 340 million. All right, so I want to go
- 7:10Speaker 1: into the news really that kind of, I think, shook
- 7:13Speaker 1: some of this. And this is Clarity Act now before
- 7:15Speaker 1: midterms is essentially dead.
- 7:17Speaker 2: They're canceling the September sessions.
- 7:19Speaker 1: This is only four days left until the elections for midterms.
- 7:25Speaker 1: So this changes everything around it. But does the market
- 7:28Speaker 1: really need it? When you look at Bitcoin and even
- 7:32Speaker 1: some of these other altcoins trading where they are right now, Evan,
- 7:35Speaker 1: is this important or not?
- 7:38Speaker 4: I don't think it's too important, but you know, I
- 7:41Speaker 4: don't have much hopes given that I saw there was
- 7:43Speaker 4: a whale that put $ 500, 000 on the clerk, not passing
- 7:47Speaker 4: between now and the end of the year, but I
- 7:48Speaker 4: don't think we need it just yet. So it's not
- 7:50Speaker 4: that big a deal. I think the main thing is
- 7:52Speaker 4: that we're going to keep going up. We probably will,
- 7:54Speaker 4: you know, for ETH, for example, we're going to see
- 7:56Speaker 4: probably some type of correction down to 3000. I mean,
- 7:58Speaker 4: it's tough to say you could have a little bit
- 8:00Speaker 4: more legs on you, maybe come up to 2700 before
- 8:03Speaker 4: that happens, but in all likelihood, you see a healthy
- 8:05Speaker 4: correction between now and midterms. But I mean, Obviously, I
- 8:08Speaker 4: wouldn't try to time the market. I wouldn't sell my
- 8:10Speaker 4: ETH for this. ETH is still in a very good
- 8:11Speaker 4: holding position. And your quarter one goal for this is
- 8:14Speaker 4: probably going to be around $ 3, 100, $ 3, 000. I think it's
- 8:17Speaker 4: a little bit too optimistic to say $ 3, 000 by the
- 8:19Speaker 4: end of this year. But quarter one, quarter two, $ 3, 000
- 8:22Speaker 4: absolutely in the cards here looking good. Okay. All right.
- 8:25Speaker 2: So you like $ 3K in early $ 27K. What about Solana?
- 8:28Speaker 2: How would you play that right now with what's happening
- 8:30Speaker 2: with Clarity?
- 8:31Speaker 4: Very similar to ETH. It's been following ETH a lot.
- 8:34Speaker 4: You got your kind of momentum shift right here. In
- 8:36Speaker 4: all likelihood, you're going to see some type of healthy correction,
- 8:38Speaker 4: maybe down 15%, maybe 20. I like 90 bucks for this.
- 8:42Speaker 4: And then after that, your quarter one goal probably is
- 8:45Speaker 4: going to be around 120. And then hopefully sometime next year,
- 8:50Speaker 4: sky's the limit, 150. We'll see what happens. We'll play
- 8:52Speaker 4: it by year. But you do have a nice technical target. Okay.
- 8:57Speaker 4: It's only at 130, but You do. I mean, some
- 8:59Speaker 4: people would even argue it could be a little bit
- 9:01Speaker 4: more lenient with your technical target. You already broke outward. 150,
- 9:04Speaker 4: I think, is a good goal for middle of next year.
- 9:07Speaker 2: Middle of next year, 150.
- 9:08Speaker 1: Uniswap, another one of my picks going forward.
- 9:13Speaker 2: What do you think?
- 9:14Speaker 1: It has been climbing here in the last few weeks.
- 9:17Speaker 1: Where does this stand end of year?
- 9:19Speaker 4: So I think like a lot of other things in
- 9:21Speaker 4: all likelihood, you're getting kind of on your last legs
- 9:24Speaker 4: of this jump up and you're, you're screaming for a
- 9:26Speaker 4: healthy correction would be, which would be really healthier. So
- 9:29Speaker 4: some type of correction downward, I don't know exactly where,
- 9:31Speaker 4: maybe down to like five bucks, somewhere in the fours maybe,
- 9:34Speaker 4: and then end a year, hopefully kind of recovering and
- 9:37Speaker 4: then getting up to that seven, $ 8 mark in quarter one.
- 9:40Speaker 4: And then sky's the limit for this. It's tough to
- 9:43Speaker 4: say Paul, obviously for, you know, something like this, but
- 9:46Speaker 4: I could see $ 12 eventually. Why not? Yeah, I could
- 9:48Speaker 4: see $ 12 eventually.
- 9:49Speaker 2: Sometime next year.
- 9:51Speaker 1: So you're still more on the camp that this next
- 9:55Speaker 1: real major next move is going to happen in early 2027.
- 9:59Speaker 1: nothing really toward end of year. I mean, every analyst,
- 10:03Speaker 1: almost every analyst, including, I mean, I think Tom Lee
- 10:06Speaker 1: has been.
- 10:07Speaker 2: The most vocal, that his thesis is that.
- 10:10Speaker 1: This is an end-of-year bull run catalyst as opposed to
- 10:13Speaker 1: an early quarter one catalyst in 2027.
- 10:16Speaker 2: I'm a contrarian. All right.
- 10:20Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think Tom Lee really cares about seasonality
- 10:25Speaker 4: and cares about these other things. He's more of a
- 10:27Speaker 4: price cheerleader.
- 10:30Speaker 2: It's a different situation. So, Evan, let's go to a
- 10:33Speaker 2: clip real quick.
- 10:34Speaker 1: This is Matt Hogan, and he's talking about why Bitcoin
- 10:37Speaker 1: could be a little bit more resilient around what we're
- 10:39Speaker 1: seeing in the markets right now.
- 10:41Speaker 4: Take a look.
- 10:42Speaker 5: You look, the big whale of a story is the
- 10:44Speaker 5: $ 40 trillion of debt going to $ 50 trillion, going to
- 10:47Speaker 5: $ 100 trillion. The traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40%
- 10:52Speaker 5: bonds is 100% fiat currency. You're completely exposed to that.
- 10:57Speaker 5: What Besson has said is he'll grow his way out
- 10:59Speaker 5: of this thanks to the AI boom. He may be right.
- 11:02Speaker 5: We may get that one in a million chance that
- 11:05Speaker 5: it plays out exactly perfectly. So own AI stocks.
- 11:08Speaker 4: If he's right, you get that.
- 11:09Speaker 5: If he's wrong, the other way governments get out of
- 11:12Speaker 5: this is by inflating away the debt. In that case,
- 11:15Speaker 5: Bitcoin is the fastest horse. So you want to own that.
- 11:17Speaker 1: All right.
- 11:19Speaker 2: Bitcoin fastest horse.
- 11:20Speaker 1: That's the debasement trade we've all been working on probably
- 11:23Speaker 1: really since Bitcoin hit 59K. When you look at that
- 11:27Speaker 1: and the fact that we have Bitcoin ETFs now showing
- 11:30Speaker 1: massive strength, where do you call Bitcoin toward the end
- 11:34Speaker 1: of the.
- 11:34Speaker 4: Year, Evan? So, yeah, great question. I'll tell you what
- 11:38Speaker 4: I think is going to happen. We get a healthy correction,
- 11:40Speaker 4: maybe down to 69, maybe down to 65. And then
- 11:44Speaker 4: end of year, probably after that, you get a little
- 11:46Speaker 4: crabbish bearish, you know, as the economy kind of shuts
- 11:49Speaker 4: down for a little bit around the holidays. But end
- 11:52Speaker 4: of year, maybe back to 80, maybe back to some
- 11:54Speaker 4: of these areas. I would say the highest I could
- 11:57Speaker 4: see end of year is maybe 90 if all kind
- 11:59Speaker 4: of goes well after kind of the correction. But my
- 12:01Speaker 4: guess would be around 82. And then your 90 is
- 12:04Speaker 4: going to be your quarter one. That's going to be
- 12:05Speaker 4: somewhere between January to March. in all likelihood. So something
- 12:09Speaker 4: like this is my, my main prognosis here.
- 12:12Speaker 2: Okay. So you've got a 90 toward the end of year, early.
- 12:15Speaker 4: January, January to March would be 90 and a year.
- 12:19Speaker 4: If I had to guess a number between 70 to 80,
- 12:21Speaker 4: probably around where we are right now.
- 12:24Speaker 2: So kind of flat for the rest of the year.
- 12:26Speaker 3: All right.
- 12:26Speaker 1: So other things happening, of course, one catalyst that hit
- 12:30Speaker 1: the market was Robin hood. It jumped almost 17% in
- 12:34Speaker 1: overnight best session.
- 12:35Speaker 2: Of the year. Wall Street quite a bit bullish here.
- 12:39Speaker 1: And of course, Robinhood doing a lot in terms of
- 12:43Speaker 1: really making this a market run. And now they're having
- 12:46Speaker 1: a little bit of a challenge, at least with Robinhood chain.
- 12:48Speaker 2: It got paused today.
- 12:50Speaker 1: There are some other issues happening around tokenized securities that
- 12:53Speaker 1: could challenge this as well. But when you look at
- 12:55Speaker 1: the Robinhood stock, is this one that you would continue
- 12:59Speaker 1: to invest in long term or is this more of
- 13:02Speaker 1: a trade and kind of just do swing trading on it?
- 13:06Speaker 4: Where would you stand on this one? Yeah, so Robinhood,
- 13:09Speaker 4: to answer that question, it's a long-term hold, I think.
- 13:11Speaker 4: I think this is going to do well for the
- 13:12Speaker 4: next few years. I think it's generally going to follow
- 13:15Speaker 4: some type of trajectory like this and hit at least 200,
- 13:17Speaker 4: somewhere between 200 to 300 within the next two, three years. Now,
- 13:22Speaker 4: shorter term, I think seasonality, you will probably see some
- 13:25Speaker 4: type of healthy correction pull back between now and midterms.
- 13:28Speaker 4: But after that, I do think you will continue forward.
- 13:33Speaker 4: And in 2027, potentially, by the end of 2027, $ 200
- 13:37Speaker 4: is a good goal. So I think Robinhood's pretty good.
- 13:40Speaker 4: Does this outperform Bitcoin? Tough to say. I think it
- 13:43Speaker 4: will perform similar to Bitcoin.
- 13:44Speaker 2: I think it will perform pretty similar. OK, similar to Bitcoin.
- 13:47Speaker 2: I like it.
- 13:48Speaker 1: I want to go on the opposite side of ETH,
- 13:51Speaker 1: look at BM & R. If you look at the
- 13:53Speaker 1: big players out there, you could say BM & R, MicroStrategy, Circle,
- 13:59Speaker 1: Those are plays I think that many people who are
- 14:01Speaker 1: looking at crypto but don't want direct exposure are doing
- 14:04Speaker 1: right now.
- 14:05Speaker 2: Where would you put BM & R? Obviously, you like
- 14:08Speaker 2: ETH for first quarter.
- 14:09Speaker 1: Would you follow up with that with BM & R?
- 14:12Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good hold right now. It's definitely a
- 14:14Speaker 4: good hold. The thing I like, I mean, it's obviously
- 14:16Speaker 4: hitting a speed bump. You know, this is big resistance
- 14:18Speaker 4: around 27 right here. You're probably going to see some
- 14:21Speaker 4: type of healthy correction. You're going to form one of
- 14:22Speaker 4: my favorite, you know, long-term bullish patterns, which is going
- 14:25Speaker 4: to be a nice reverse head and shoulders. And then
- 14:28Speaker 4: after that, you're probably going to break upward to a
- 14:30Speaker 4: nice technical target, which is going to be, yeah, I mean,
- 14:34Speaker 4: you got a technical target probably around at least at 40,
- 14:37Speaker 4: at least 3940, which could be a good quarter one
- 14:40Speaker 4: goal of 40 bucks. This could run, man.
- 14:44Speaker 1: Evan, I want to go to your watch list for
- 14:46Speaker 1: the end of the year. So if we get this dip,
- 14:48Speaker 1: this technical dip that you're mentioning right now on almost
- 14:51Speaker 1: all the assets, you believe there's a retracement coming for this.
- 14:55Speaker 1: Where would you deploy capital if you weren't in the
- 14:58Speaker 1: market right now?
- 14:59Speaker 2: Top three tokens.
- 15:01Speaker 4: So I would definitely be looking at Hyperliquid on a dip.
- 15:04Speaker 4: I think there's definitely going to be a future of
- 15:06Speaker 4: the tokenized assets that could have a good run for
- 15:08Speaker 4: the next few years. Absolutely would be looking at Chainlink
- 15:12Speaker 4: is one I'm keeping my eye on. I took some
- 15:14Speaker 4: profits on that, but that could be a kind of
- 15:17Speaker 4: a sleeper hit. And like we mentioned, there's a few
- 15:19Speaker 4: things like Uniswap. That could be one that I'm definitely
- 15:22Speaker 4: keeping my eyes on right now, too, for potentially lower risk,
- 15:26Speaker 4: higher reward. You need to stop loss, Max, though. You
- 15:28Speaker 4: need to look at your Bitcoin evaluations, but yeah.
- 15:32Speaker 1: Hyperliquid had a pullback off of its all-time high again yesterday.
- 15:37Speaker 1: It was up at 87, back down to 85. Where
- 15:40Speaker 1: would be your entry if you were going on Hyperliquid?
- 15:42Speaker 2: Where would you be? Would you look at this?
- 15:45Speaker 4: Yeah, at least 20% down, which is going to be
- 15:47Speaker 4: low 60s, I would hope for. Okay, so you're thinking
- 15:51Speaker 4: low 60s. Hopefully, yeah.
- 15:56Speaker 2: All right. I like that list.
- 15:58Speaker 1: You know, there's a handful of others we'll probably try
- 16:01Speaker 1: to get to. We definitely have to get... We got
- 16:04Speaker 1: to do a buy list for the audience, especially if
- 16:09Speaker 1: this plays out based on what your thesis is, because
- 16:13Speaker 1: there could be some other good tokens for a shopping
- 16:16Speaker 1: list toward the end of the year, good Christmas shopping
- 16:19Speaker 1: or holiday shopping list for tokens.
- 16:21Speaker 2: So Hey, Evan, thanks so much for coming in today.
- 16:24Speaker 2: We'll definitely have you back.
- 16:25Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks so much, Paul. It was an honor.
- 16:34Speaker 1: If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop
- 16:36Speaker 1: a comment down below, and also join our free private
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- 16:40Speaker 2: The link is in the description.