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Could Ohio State and Michigan Meet In The 2025 Big Ten Championship Game? · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckeyes tomorrow morning for Friday, October thirty. First
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  Speaker 1: time your host Tom Moore, the Penn State game in
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  Speaker 1: one day, the game against Michigan in twenty nine days.
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  Speaker 1: If you're planning your next event, make it unforgettable with
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  Speaker 1: Grateful Brittle, Columbus's favorite food truck serving up Snaschberger's gourmet
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  Speaker 1: dot com. All right, today's show, we're gonna be talking
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  Speaker 1: about the Big Ten tie breaking procedures. This is actually
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  Speaker 1: a conversation that started on the huddle board presented by
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  Speaker 1: Jeffruby's Columbus at Buckeye Huddle dot com, trying to figure out, okay,
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  Speaker 1: what would happen if certain scenarios played out, because the
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  Speaker 1: race for the Big Ten championship game this year is
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  Speaker 1: pretty crazy, and there are some consequential games coming up
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  Speaker 1: down the home stretch of November that are going to
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  Speaker 1: really have an impact on who ends up playing in Indianapolis.
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  Speaker 1: And some of the scenarios are easy, some of those
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  Speaker 1: scenarios are very complicated. So I have great news. Friends,
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  Speaker 1: You know how you loved when we read all sorts
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  Speaker 1: of rules and regulations and eye laws during the Michigan
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  Speaker 1: signed ceiling scandal. Well, great news, we get to read
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  Speaker 1: a bunch of big ten tie breaking procedures. How does
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  Speaker 1: that sound? Well, too bad, We're going to do it anyway,
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  Speaker 1: all right, So here we go. We're going to start
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  Speaker 1: from the very beginning. We're really going to be talking
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  Speaker 1: about a bunch of scenarios that are a little bit
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  Speaker 1: more complicated, because if it comes down to Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: and Michigan are tied, it's just who's going to be
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  Speaker 1: the team that won that game, and then that team
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  Speaker 1: is going to get the tiebreaker. So most of the
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  Speaker 1: two team scenarios are pretty straightforward. We're going to be
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  Speaker 1: looking at some of the more complicated, messy scenarios here.
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  Speaker 1: So here is the section on if three or more
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  Speaker 1: teams are tied for first place in the standings, the
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  Speaker 1: following steps and Section B will be followed until a
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  Speaker 1: determination is made after the head to head competition among
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  Speaker 1: the Tide teams. If a tiebreaker step produces standings with
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  Speaker 1: a clear number one team by itself among the Tide teams,
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  Speaker 1: that team is selected for the championship game and the
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  Speaker 1: remaining team still in contention, revert to the beginning of
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  Speaker 1: the applicable tie breaking procedures. Eg. If there are three
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  Speaker 1: teams to the number one team is in the championship game,
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  Speaker 1: and the other two teams go to the first step
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  Speaker 1: the two team tiebreaker procedures. If there are four teams,
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  Speaker 1: the number one team isn't the championship game and the
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  Speaker 1: other three teams go to the first step of the
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  Speaker 1: three team tiebreaker procedures, etc. Okay, pretty straightforward. Next up.
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  Speaker 1: If a tiebreaker step produces results with two teams tied
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  Speaker 1: for number one, they are both selected for the championship
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  Speaker 1: game that decide the ranking of the two teams, they
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  Speaker 1: will progress through the two team tiebreaker procedures. Really, the
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  Speaker 1: only thing the ranking of the two teams really functionally
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  Speaker 1: determines is what color jerseys they wear, so that doesn't
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  Speaker 1: really matter all right. So if a tiebreaker step producers
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  Speaker 1: results with two teams tied for position other than number one,
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  Speaker 1: the winner of the game between the two teams shall
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  Speaker 1: be the representative. If the two teams did not play,
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  Speaker 1: moved to the two team tiebreaker above. If three or
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  Speaker 1: more teams remain tied after any step, moved to the
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  Speaker 1: next step and tiebreaker with remaining tied teams. If a
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  Speaker 1: tiebreaker step produces results with one team being eliminated from
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  Speaker 1: proceeding to the next step in the tiebreaker process, the
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  Speaker 1: team that is eliminated shall not be pulled back into
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  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker for any future step or steps. Now here's
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  Speaker 1: where we get into the stuff that is really going
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  Speaker 1: to determine a lot of the rest of the show.
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  Speaker 1: So I'm going to read it. Don't worry, I'll explain it.
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  Speaker 1: This is just I'm sort of showing my work here
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  Speaker 1: and then you can go back and refer to this
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  Speaker 1: section later when you're like, that's not right. This is
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  Speaker 1: what this is all pulled directly from. So if any
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  Speaker 1: teams involved in the tie are tied after any step,
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  Speaker 1: all teams will continue to the next step in the
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  Speaker 1: tiebreaker procedures. One the records of the three or more
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  Speaker 1: tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in
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  Speaker 1: games among the tied teams. A. If all teams invioved
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  Speaker 1: in the tie did not play each other, but one
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  Speaker 1: team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the
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  Speaker 1: team that defeated all the other teams in the tie
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  Speaker 1: is removed from the tie breaker and the remaining teams
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  Speaker 1: revert to the beginning of the applicable tie breaker procedures
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  Speaker 1: i e. One two team or three or more team tie. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: so that is probably not going to be something that
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  Speaker 1: is going to play out in any of the scenario
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  Speaker 1: as we're talking about later. However, one be pay attention.
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  Speaker 1: This is going to be an important one, all right.
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  Speaker 1: If all teams involved in the tie did not play
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  Speaker 1: each other and no team defeeded, all other teams involved
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  Speaker 1: in the tie moved to the next step in tiebreaker.
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  Speaker 1: So why is that going to be important? Trust me,
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  Speaker 1: just pay attention. This is the mystery mousek a tool.
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  Speaker 1: It's a surprise tool that will help us later. It
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  Speaker 1: will be the answer to wait, I think he's wrong.
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  Speaker 1: Why is that the case? That's the case, So we'll
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  Speaker 1: get there at a minute. Number two, the records of
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  Speaker 1: the three or more tied teams will be compared based
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  Speaker 1: on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by
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  Speaker 1: all other teams involved in the tie. Number three, the
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  Speaker 1: records of the three or more tied teams will be
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  Speaker 1: compared based on winning percentage against the next highest place
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  Speaker 1: common opponent in the standings in order to finish. For
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  Speaker 1: the records of the three or more tied teams, we
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  Speaker 1: compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of
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  Speaker 1: all conference opponents. A In the event of an unbalanced
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  Speaker 1: schedule i e. Less than nine conference games are played,
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  Speaker 1: the records with three or more tied teams will be
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  Speaker 1: compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of
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  Speaker 1: all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each
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  Speaker 1: team played. That's really about where the tie brid are
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  Speaker 1: going to end. That's the thing that is almost going
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  Speaker 1: to determine virtually all these scenarios. So we'll talk about that,
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  Speaker 1: but just in case you want to know what else
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  Speaker 1: happens after that, if winning percentage is equal for all
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  Speaker 1: conference opponents, move to the think at next step and
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  Speaker 1: tie breaker five representative will be chosen by the highest
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  Speaker 1: ranked ranking by Sports Source Analytics Team Rating Score Metric
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  Speaker 1: following the regular season. We never get there, don't worry.
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  Speaker 1: Number six random draw among the tied teams, conducted by
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  Speaker 1: the Commissioner or designee. All right, so you're probably not
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  Speaker 1: going to get that far, however, So now we're going
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  Speaker 1: to go through some of the scenarios that could happen
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  Speaker 1: just depending on how the regular season plays out. And
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State fans, you're going to get really annoyed because
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  Speaker 1: a bunch of these involved Ohio State losing. Here's why.
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  Speaker 1: If Ohio State wins, they're in. If a high state
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  Speaker 1: wins out, they're in, period full stop. There's no scenario
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  Speaker 1: where Ohio State wins out and does not make the
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  Speaker 1: Big Ten Championship game. So those are not scenarios we're
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  Speaker 1: going to be talking about, except for this one. Scenario one.
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  Speaker 1: Indiana wins out, Ohio State wins out. It is Indiana
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  Speaker 1: versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Congratulations.
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  Speaker 1: Hotel rooms are twenty five hundred dollars a night and
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  Speaker 1: there's a seven night minimum, So have fun there everyone.
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  Speaker 1: So that's scenario one, very clean, easy, straightforward, all right.
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  Speaker 1: So that's if both Indiana and Ohio State handle their business.
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  Speaker 1: That's what it's going to be. Now let's go to
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  Speaker 1: scenario two, all right. So now here's where things start
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  Speaker 1: to get a little more complicated. If Indiana, Michigan, and
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  Speaker 1: Oregon went out and Michigan beats Ohio, State. Then Indiana's
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  Speaker 1: in because they're unbeaten, and then it's a three way
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  Speaker 1: tie aut one loss in conference play between Michigan, Oregon,
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  Speaker 1: and Ohio State. So Oregon would win out. Oregon would
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  Speaker 1: win the Tiberker there because they are ahead of both
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State and Michigan based on opponent conference winning percentage.
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  Speaker 1: That's actually they've got a decent margin there between them
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  Speaker 1: and the other schools, so they would be pretty comfortably in.
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  Speaker 1: So then that would be Indiana and Oregon in the
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  Speaker 1: Big Ten championship game. All right, So now scenario three,
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  Speaker 1: what if Indiana and Michigan went out, but Oregon loses
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  Speaker 1: a game. We're going to say they just lose to
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  Speaker 1: Iowa next week, So then Indiana is in with an
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  Speaker 1: eight to no record, and then the tiebreaker would be
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  Speaker 1: just between Michigan and Ohio State, and Michigan would get
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  Speaker 1: in based on the tiebreaker of a head to head
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  Speaker 1: win over Ohio State. So that would be that would
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  Speaker 1: be Indiana and Michigan. So there you go. There's scenario three.
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  Speaker 1: Now scenario four, this is where things start to get
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  Speaker 1: kind of crazy and really really hard to keep track of.
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  Speaker 1: And I will admit I Sandity checked some of this
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  Speaker 1: against the model at not nothing dot net just to
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  Speaker 1: make sure I was right about some of this. I
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  Speaker 1: will drop a link to that model in the show notes.
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  Speaker 1: If you want to play around the model that it's
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  Speaker 1: actually kind of fun. It's like, can I get Perdue
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  Speaker 1: into the Big Ten Championship game? Well, you need to
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  Speaker 1: do some crazy stuff, but maybe if you want to
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  Speaker 1: figure that out, you go right ahead. All right, So
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  Speaker 1: what happens if Michigan wins out, Oregon wins out. The
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  Speaker 1: Buckeyes obviously would lose to Michigan, and then Indiana gets
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  Speaker 1: upset by someone. It doesn't really probably matter who, but
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  Speaker 1: we'll just say Penn State. So at that point, the
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  Speaker 1: head to head tiebreaker not in effect. There's four teams tied,
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  Speaker 1: but the head to head tie breaker is not in
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  Speaker 1: effect because of rule one B that we talked about earlier. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: so deep breath, everyone, here we go. Oregon is in
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  Speaker 1: because their conference opponent winning percentage is the best, and
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  Speaker 1: again there's a decent gap there, so they would probably
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  Speaker 1: be in almost over almost anyone else that we could
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  Speaker 1: have in this conversation. So Oregon's in. Then the teams
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  Speaker 1: left are Ohio State, Michigan in Indiana, the Buckeyes have
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  Speaker 1: the highest conference opponent winning percentage of those three, although
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  Speaker 1: it's kind of close right now, so that could change
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  Speaker 1: between now and the time that this type would actually
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  Speaker 1: go into effect. Michigan just behind Indiana last, So even
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  Speaker 1: though Michigan beat Ohio State a week earlier, it would
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  Speaker 1: be Oregon and Ohio State in Indianapolis. That would go
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  Speaker 1: over great in ann Arboro. I'm sure get ready for
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  Speaker 1: lots of conversations about nineteen seventy three if that happens.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So here's one more. This is kind of
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  Speaker 1: a fun one. What if Indiana loses to Penn State,
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  Speaker 1: Oregon loses to Iowa, Michigan wins out, they beat Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State in the process, then Oregon is out, and then
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  Speaker 1: it's just a three way tie between Indiana, Michigan, and
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State. So at that point, it again comes down
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  Speaker 1: to conference opponent winning percentage. Michigan and Ohio State are
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  Speaker 1: the top two teams by that metric. Michigan actually would
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  Speaker 1: be slightly ahead of Ohio State in that scenario. It's
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  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. They're very close right now, so that
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  Speaker 1: one is still a little bit TBD. But so Michigan
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  Speaker 1: and Ohio State would play for the second week in
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  Speaker 1: a row. They would play in Indianapolis. If that combination
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  Speaker 1: of events happens, that's entirely possible. You know, we'll see
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  Speaker 1: what Penn State looks like against Indiana. But that is
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  Speaker 1: an entirely possible scenario. All right. Last one just to
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  Speaker 1: give you a s for how much stuff can change
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  Speaker 1: in a relatively you know, with relatively minor changes in
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  Speaker 1: terms of events, how much change things can really change
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  Speaker 1: in terms of outcome. Okay, from the last scenario where
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State's playing Michigan, all were changing is instead of
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  Speaker 1: Oregon losing to Iowa, they're going to lose to USC instead.
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  Speaker 1: Everything else is the same, So how much does that
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  Speaker 1: change things? Well, Ohio State would face USC in Indianapolis.
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  Speaker 1: So here's why the Trojans, Well, they would have the
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  Speaker 1: best conference opponent winning percentage, followed by the buck Eyes
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  Speaker 1: and then Michigan and then Indiana on the outside looking
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  Speaker 1: at So it would be the buck Eyes and USC,
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  Speaker 1: and instead of twenty five hundred dollars hotel rooms, you'd
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  Speaker 1: have Ohio State a week off of a lost to Michigan,
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  Speaker 1: and usc from all the way across the country, and
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  Speaker 1: hotel rooms would be thirteen dollars in Indianapolis. So depending
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  Speaker 1: on your views on whether you want to go and
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  Speaker 1: how expensive hotel rooms might be there, you go. Now
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  Speaker 1: you know who to root for in all those various games.
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  Speaker 1: But I thought that was just kind of a fun
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  Speaker 1: little exercise. Again, I will drop a link to the
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  Speaker 1: model that they used from not Nothing dot net. They
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  Speaker 1: do a really good job sort of sorting things out
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  Speaker 1: and explaining the tiebreakers and letting you model things out
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  Speaker 1: for Okay, what happens If these seven crazy things happen,
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  Speaker 1: who would go to the Big Ten Championship game then?
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  Speaker 1: So I'll drop that in the show notes on both
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  Speaker 1: your podcast platform of Coys and at YouTube dot com
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  Speaker 1: slash Buckey Huddle as well. So there you go. Hope
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  Speaker 1: you enjoyed that one. Again. If Ohio State just handles
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  Speaker 1: their business, it will be a very boring, no drama
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  Speaker 1: walk to the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis, and
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  Speaker 1: they could have a very easy, no drama walk to
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  Speaker 1: the Big Ten Championship game for Indiana as well. All
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  Speaker 1: they have to do is handle their business. In November
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  Speaker 1: which starts today, November first, Buckeyes taking on Penn State.
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  Speaker 1: We will be there for the full day, your usual
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  Speaker 1: pregame show, postgame show, all the covers you come to
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  Speaker 1: know and expect from us at bucke huddle dot com
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  Speaker 1: and of course at YouTube dot com ash Buckeye Huddle.
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  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today. Thank you guys all for
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  Speaker 1: joining us. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.