Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | The Memorial | May 28, 2025 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A

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PGA DFS | The Memorial | May 28, 2025 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: All system's gone clear the lift yo, yo yo, what's
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: going on?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Called fans, it's your boy g s luke you with
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: our live stream for this week's Memorial tournaments. Gotta get
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: you guys ready for all of your exposure. But first off,
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: I look at some of the weather heading into lock.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: How that's going to impact days one and two. Go there,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: any player deep dives that you have for me in
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: the live chat, some ownership from eight K plus, as
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: well as some stuff on DraftKings, looking at some contests
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: that are available there. Also building a few lineups together
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: to make sure we're all on the same page and
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: ready to crush our exposure. But hopefully your Wednesday is
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: treating you guys nicely. He was able to play some
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: golf myself this afternoon. A little bit of a rain
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: delay that threw it off a bit, but can't complain
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: anytime we get to play this lovely sport that we're
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: breaking down here and ready for this signature event to come.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: So whether it's a work week for you guys, I
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: know Wednesdays can be a little bit of a downtime
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: for some people. We've got golf coming tomorrow, so all
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: things up and super stoked to talk about it. You
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: got go collect in the chat also Wayne with a
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: player deep dive that will go through a little bit later,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: and for sure I got you Wayne. We'll talk about
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: saw Hith later on. We got Jake there as well,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: talking about Scotty Scheffler as potential faith. Yeah, we'll talk
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: about that. For sure, He's going to be super highly owed.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: See Floyd Brant says cold hand Luke love the reference.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: We get Allen down there to appreciate the kind words
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: and already this glasses Luke, Yeah, I only use them sparingly.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: It's something that I only use when I'm giving.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: My eyes some rest.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: But maybe they'll make a little bit of a guest
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: appearance at some point. They got Bury here as well
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: with another player deep dive that will do a little
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: bit later. And as Mike said, smash the lakebund If
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: you guys haven't already and what's going on, Ryan, I'd
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: love to have you in the live chat here. But
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: we're gonna start it off with a look at the
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: weather and how that's gonna impact days one and two.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: So we're over here on Thursday looking at the h
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: trip of R forecast in Days one and two look
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: very similar from the weather angle, so we do have
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: twosomes off a full one, so there is a chance
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that we could get a weather edge, but the weather
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: doesn't seem to be cooperating because what you'll see here
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: on Thursday is that in the afternoon it looks little
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: bit windier than the morning, but it's also gonna be
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: a little.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Bit cooler in the morning hour.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: So I really think it's probably gonna play it like
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: a quarter of a stroke easier towards the first half
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: of tea times, just because they won't have as much wind.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: But those cool temperatures they're gonna make it tough as well.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've had a lot of rain in the
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: area this week. It's gonna be a little bit of
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: a softer golf course and what we're used to seeing,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: which I think is gonna make an already long golf
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: course at about seventy five hundred yards play extremely long
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: when it's only fifty to out. So for Showdown tomorrow,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: we'll see how it looks between the morning and afternoon.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I'm not somebody that plays a lot of Round one Showdown,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: but if I was taking a gainder or maybe leaning
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: towards one side or the other. It would be the
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: AM side that should play a hair easier than the PM.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: But when they go over to the Friday forecast, and
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: we'll use a couple of these different models to go
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: through it, HRDPS hasn't really loaded in quite yet, but
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: this ANYM model, which seems to be the most accurate
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: when we're.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Forty eight hours out, looks the exact same.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: It looks cool in the morning, about fifty eight degrees fahrenheit,
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: but as the day goes on, these winds tend to
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: kick up a bit, and you can see in this
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: HRDPS that they were calling for some rain in Friday's forecast.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: In fact, if we go to the h triple R,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: they're calling for that same sort of scenario. But because
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: it is such a light rain, it's less than five
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: one hundreds of an inch that is coming down per hour,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's going to impact to the
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: play that much. So as of right now, I'm currently
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: playing my lineup's pretty straight up. I'm not playing with
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: a massive weather edge. But because I'm one fifty and
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna like buy default get lamps that are six
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: to zero in either direction. That's how I'm choosing to
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: play it. I'm just letting it naturally play out. Any
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: six o's that they get from all AM guys, or
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: any six o's that I'm getting from all PM guys.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: I'm just kind of letting happen in my exposure. And
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: the one thing I would say is if you want
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: to jam it up a little bit, maybe force in
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: ten to maybe twelve fifteen percent of a six to
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: six in either direction, you could take that rounde I
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: would say, I don't think it's the worst idea on
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: a slate like this, but it doesn't look like there's
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: going to be a massive weather advantage to be had
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: unless the winds kick up out of nowhere over the
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: next few days, or unless the storms are a lot
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: more significant than they're calling for, which could happen. We've
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: seen the weather go one eighty on us a thousand
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: times before out here at PGADFS, which is why if
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: you want to take ten to fifteen percent and stack
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: them towards either wave, that's why I don't think that's that's.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Really ever the worst idea.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: So that's the weather over the first few rounds, really
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: nothing definitive that I see as of right now. Not
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: to say that if you wake up before lock tomorrow
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: that thing is my change on some of these weather models.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: But even if they do so, let's say tomorrow morning,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: you wake up and it looks like a definitive edge
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: towards one side, my pushback is always going to be
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: not to go all in on that sort of an edge,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: unless you're only entering a few lineups. You know, if
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: you're entering three to five lineups, if you want to
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: make that where you're getting different to the field, then
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: by all means, go out there and do so. But
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people when they watch these
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: live streams, they kind of take it way too far
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: when they hear the word weather edge. In reality, it
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: should just be a lean towards that side in most cases.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: That's why you're not going to see me really stacking
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: one side or the other year. And heck, even if
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: it was definitive right now and it looked like one
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: side is going to play better, I'm never going to
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: go all in for a main slate on a weather edge.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: If anything, it's maybe like fifty five sixty percent of
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: my player poll might go that one direction. I'm still
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: going to have forty percent from the other side of
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: that draw, So you know, I might force in fifteen
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: to twenty five percent of lineups at times that are
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: truly stacking the weather. But it's especially as I've gone
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: more and more experienced in PGADFS, it's seen a lot
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: of different slates work out. It is extremely rare where
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: you see a big enough weather edge where all the
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: six players are going to be from that side. I mean,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: even in some of the worst weather situations that we've
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: had Southern Hills PGA Players Championship three years ago kind
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: of come to mind, it's like two and a half
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: free shot edges usually still get one or two guys
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: that are getting there from the other wave. So really,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: I think this weather really when you want to take
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: advantage of the most is for Showdown, when we have
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: a single round to work with, when you're not gonna
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: have multiple days where the weather can kind of flip
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: on you at a moment's notice, and where for a
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: single day it's black and white where these players are
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: out there on the golf course. Because you got to remember,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: even if we have weather edge over the first few days,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: you've got Saturday Sunday to worry about, and we've got
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: no idea ahead of time to know when those guys
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: are going to be teeing off. So that's why showdown
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit more actionable. So that's the showdown
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: PSA for this week. Really not that much that I'm
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: seeing right now. We're going to focus on.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Next is going to be.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: The ownership and strategy component for this slate, which I think,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: without a massive weather edge, becomes an even bigger important
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: part of our process because if there's not going to
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: be an obvious half choke the one strike advantage to
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: kind of lean us towards one side of the other,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be course fit projection.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: That is part of the process, But I think.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: The bigger part of it is game theory, playing against
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: the rest of the field and knowing and you know,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: kind of taking into account that PGADFS is a very
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: hard sport to handicap. So if somebody's gonna be twice
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: three times the ownership of the guys around them, you
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: really want to think about a fade for this kind
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: of slate. So I'm gonna get a sip of water,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: and now is we're gonna go through some of that
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: ownership of the player deep dives. So if you have
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: any of those for me, feel free to go ahead
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: and throw those down in the chat. You're gonna go
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: through the few questions that I know we had before
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: about specific players like saw Hit and forget the other
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: guy that we need the deep dive here together, but
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: we can go through shots gained metrics.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So I've got last twelve rounds loaded in for the field, last.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: Twenty four rounds as well, excuse me, the last twenty
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: four rounds, so we can get a really small sample size,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit more of a zoomed out stable size.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: With those different categories, you can look at a event history,
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: recent form you guys need, so any sort of last
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: second research that you guys are looking for, we can
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: do that here together. But the rain thing we're going
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: to focus on after we go through a few of
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: these different questions, it's gonna be the ownership up here.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: So I've got everything from ak plus on here. These
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: are my projections from the Patreon page that A run,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: So these are separate from the ship it Nation. Ship
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: It Nation might be a little bit different on some
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: of these players when it comes to their ownership numbers.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be the idea on the process up top
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: that you really want to take from this kind of
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: a live stream. So let's catch up on those questions
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: and talk through game theory towards the top. So let's
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: go through saw Hits. So shots game metrics are not pretty,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: which you probably knew before asking about saw Hits. So
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think that this is going to be breaking
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: news or anything. But he's losing across all four categories,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: and if you go to the last twelve rounds, it's
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: gonna look a little bit worse than the last twenty four.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: But even the last twenty four measured rounds, and this
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: is a large sample size, it's not one thing that's
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: going wrong for saw Hits. So really, I think the
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: only reason you'd play a Thagala on a slate like
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: this is ownership in the or he could factor because
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: he's a you know, player that's shown up in major championships,
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: shown up at signature events before, and gone into the picture.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: It wouldn't be completely mind blowing if he bounced back
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: and ended up with a top ten or top fifteen
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: this week, But compared to the other guys around him,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: we do have to also know and at least keep
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: in our back of our minds that he does have
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: a lower hit rate for that top ten, top fifteen
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: than a lot of the other guys around him. So
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: when you're playing a Sawhith Coller, or at least trying
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: to decide on whether you want to play him, you've
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: got to ask yourself whether all that risk, which there
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: is a cut this week, By the way, guys, it's
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: top fiftieth than anyone within ten that is making the cut,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: you got to ask yourself it's if it's worth taking
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: on that missed cut equity for that low ownership and
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: the one saving grace for Sawhith. And the reason why
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: I wanted to bring this up is this event history
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: is a lot better on this golf course than a
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: lot of the other players around him. He had the
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: T twelve last year, did a top five finish in
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: the second ever start around of Mierfield Village. So if
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: you're looking for any semblance of hope, it's pretty clear
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: that it is going to be that course. History just
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: maybe something to consider with Asahith. I don't think he's
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: my favorite play. The form is just really Sketchy as
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: we were going through, but the Oricoud factor is there
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: for sure as well.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Talk about Scotty.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: So we've got Scotty's ownership towards the top at thirty
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: eight point one percent, and as you can see, compared
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: to the rest of the nine to ten k players,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: that is distinctly higher owned than what you have at
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the rest of the board. So you know your next
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: highestones player is at more Kabba at nineteen percent a
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: fleet when I've got at about eighteen and a half
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: percent ownership, which is high compared to some of the
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: other players around them, but nowhere close to a Scotty.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: So I knew we'd have to talk about them at
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: some point, especially when it comes to the game theory.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Playing Scotty Shuffler does give you a thirty eight percent
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: of player.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: That is true. I just want to state that fact
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: right off the bat. Off the bat.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: But when you play a Scotty Shuffler into a lineup
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: and let me actually just click over to DraftKings of
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: my tab and get the exact number for you, it
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: forces you down to seventy three forty remaining for your
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: last five players. With that a Scotty shuffler, You're at
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: eight three hundred and thirty three dollars for your six players.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: One player alone.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Makes you, on average, have to go a whole thousand
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: dollars cheaper when it comes to your salary. When you
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: play a Scotti shuffler and you're using them at forty percent,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: it looks ugly on that one play. But as I've mentioned,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: and it's actually been the last couple of weeks I've
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: mentioned with Scotty and as a reason to maybe make
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: them a better play, is that even if you use
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: them low, it forces you onto the six K range.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: It forces you on to the bottom end of the
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: seven K range, where instead of a lowaned player being
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: like an Obe at ten point six percent, a lowaned
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: guy in the eight K range being a Sun JM
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: at about eight point three percent, right like, even the
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: lowand guys up top are still like eight to ten
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: percent owns. Your loaned guys down low like in the
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: seven K range might be a Davis Thompson at five
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: point seven percent, might be a Cameron Davis who's only
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: two point three percent down towards the bottom end of
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: the six k range. We're going to talk about Davis
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: that is Thompson and Cameron Davis towards the end of
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: this live stream together. But the idea is is, if
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: you're going to make your pivots, it's easiest to do
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: it towards the bottom, and if you play a Scottish Shuffler,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: it forces you onto a lot of those sort of guys.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: So I'll just be fully transparent and said that I
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: am playing Scottish Shuffler this week, but he's going to
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: be in about half of my lineups, which is not
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: really going to be any sort of leverage to the field.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: But I'm going to have half my portfolio where I'm
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: playing Scotty and I'm getting different elsewhere, and then half
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: my portfolio the other fifty percent where I'm playing more
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: traditional lineups, where the salary is going to be a
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: lot more balanced, and I'm going to have to be
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: careful about some of that chalk in the seven and
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: eight K range that I'm mixing in with that sort
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: of a lineup, because if I went Scotty as my
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: first man in and then maybe did play, I topped
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: into the seven K range guy that's getting a little
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: bit of ownership. So, for example, just off the top
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: of Minds and Aaron Raie is one of the more
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: popular seven K range guys that we have on the slate.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Like this, Like, I'm okay with doing that with the
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Scottish Shuffler because I know the other four spots in
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: that lineup are gonna have an average salary of seven
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars or less, And as long as I'm not
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: taking the chalk the chalk towards the bottom end of
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: the seven K range, I'm going to be totally fine
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: when it comes to that ownership. So I just think
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: it has a drastic impact on where you're allocating your salary,
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: and it's almost a good change. Like I hate to
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: say that spending all the extra salary can be a
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: good thing, but it is. With your line of construction.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: It forces you on to a much more uncomfortable build.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: That's not to say that you're not giving up something
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: for that, because you certainly are. By taking a thirteen
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars player, you're losing out a lot of that
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: top five, top ten equity that you're getting for these
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: eight and nine K guys. So it's not like you're
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: giving it up for nothing, but you've got to ask yourself.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: Are there enough players in the six seven K range
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: that you could see finishing in that top fifteen, top
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: twenty to warrant getting to a Scotty Shuffler, And honestly,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know the answer to that question. I'm pretty
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: fifty to fifty on that. Hence why I'm going fifty
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: to fifty on my Scotty Age Shuffler exposure. So it's
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: something that you have more of, like the ability to do.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: If you're playing one hundred and fifty lineups, if you're
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: only entering a handful of them, then you should probably
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: commit to either playing Scottie Shuffler or not. But if
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: you're over the twenty lineup basin, let's say like forty
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: to fifty lineups and above, you can start considering going
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: with a fifty to fifty approach on a Scotty Shuffler.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I don't think that you have to lock the most
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: popular player on the slate every single time. I'm a
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: huge proponent for taking that kind of stand and Mike
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: guy Tambo I know that he's been a proponent of
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: building in sets, being able to whether it's focusing on
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: specific skill sets, whether advantages that would be a way
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: to build in sets or you know, to use Scottie
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: Shuffler lineups or not as your sets. That's something that
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: you could use as well for that kind of process.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: So Scotty up top definitely a talking piece. I think
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: it kind of depends on your portfolio, what you're doing
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: with it, the kind of take that you should have.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I will say though, that a full fate of Scottish
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Shuffler isn't the craziest thing because he's thirteen thousand dollars
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: and he's got to finish top three to pay off
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: that kind of price tag. So that's why I'm going
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: with that kind of approach as well. But if you're
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: really confident in that top five finish, you think he's
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: gonna win this golf tournament, but maybe you don't want
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: to bet him out right at like plus two eighty
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: whatever the number is on a lot of sportsbooks now,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: then maybe just lock them in your DFS lineups and
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: you use that as your way to get that leverage.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: There are I think a lot of different ways that
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: you could approach the Scottish Shuffler situation.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Up top, And you guys know my thoughts.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Obviously, after giving you that there outside of Scotty though
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: we mentioned the more kW of Fleetwood getting some ownership,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: but there are some lower owned guys that you can
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: consider towards the top. So and Obert kind of looks
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: like he's getting overlooked. I've got him in only about
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: ten and a half percent ownership. We mentioned sun Jay
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: at about eight percent before. But a Russell Henley I
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: haven't heard talked up very much, and I know the
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: forum's fallen off a bit after his win, but you know,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: kind of like a Lowry accept Stracup. He is that positional,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: really good iron player that usually plays well around this
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: golf course. So if looking for a good course fit
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: but maybe not the best form, you'd be getting that
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: with Russ at eighty four hundred dollars, and he's like
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: five six percent lower owned than a lot of the
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: other guys around him. So I don't think that makes
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: guys like a Lowry, a Burger, a Sibu kim Straka,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: all of these guys unplayedvailable in GPPs. It's just that
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: if you're using a more chalk guy like a more
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Kabba as your first man in, maybe you're going with
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: like Corey Connors as your second man in and then
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: your third man in is like a Straka or you know,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: a Burger or a Lowry. In this eight k range,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: you can start to see real quickly where starting off
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: with that core of three players is going to put
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: you in a much chalkier situation with what you do
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: with the Scottie shuffler.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: And you know you don't have to start with all
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: the chalk up top. Maybe it's like a.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Can't lay than an obar, and then maybe down here
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: you go with like a Jordan's speef rather than going
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: with the more popular.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Option like a Lowry or a Burger. If you get
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit less popular in those lineups, you can
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: find some leverage towards the top. But unless you do so,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: and if you are taking these guys that are like
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: twenty percent owns, you're gonna have just as much ownership,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: if not more, combined ownership with that product ownership. I'd
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: actually venture to say most likely more product ownership. Even
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: if you take the more conservative leveraged approach towards the top,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Even if you went with like fourteen twelve percenter then
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: ten percenter as your third man in, that product ownership
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: is probably going to be more than this thirty eight
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: percent times two to five percenters, because that is the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: power of having five percenters in your lineups. That product
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: ownership is massive for getting different towards the rest of
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the field. So that's why I would say, if you're
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: gonna make a lot of those pivots, it's not even
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: like the smartest place to do it towards the top,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: because even if you do, you're not getting yourself that
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: much different compared to the guys down low. So what
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: that means is that when you're going through your player
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: pole and trying to choose ownership, trying to play that
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: game theory edge, the further down the board you go,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: so seven K range you start to take ownership a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: little bit more seriously. Bottom into the seven K range
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: you really start to take ownership seriously with some of
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: the guys that you're playing. But like the six k
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: range is where you should use that on steroids.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Really, any six K range players that are getting ownership
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: for mainsleet this week, you can almost argue just based
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: on that alone, that they are an automatic faith And
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: in fact, if you guys take a look at my
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: player pool, this is blacked out we're gonna talk through
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: a few players together. The guys that we talk up
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: here in the live stream are going to be like
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: two three percenters. I'm not going to be using a
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: whole lot of the six to eight to ten percent
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: of the players that you have here in the six
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: kate range because they're scrubs.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: The ownership differences are much larger at this portion of
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the board, right.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Because it's like ten percent compared to two percent, which
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: is nearly a five x difference in terms of ownership.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: There up top a five x difference in ownership. Let's
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: take the lowest stones guy, sun GM. That would be
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: the difference between Sun GM and Scotti Shuffler. That's as
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: extreme as it gets. And there's really only one player
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: that you could do that with, because I mean, if
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: you went Sunday to the second highestoned player, that's half
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: the ownership. It's eight and a half percent compared to
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the nineteen percent, so a little bit, you know, over
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: half of what do you.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Have there down low?
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: You've got all these ones that are four or five
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: x differences when it comes to that projected ownership. So
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: the spot to get different, in my opinion, on a
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: site like this, especially when it's not a no cut event,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: but it's pretty close to a no cut event with
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: it being the top fiftye of than anyone within ten
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: shots is to really make your stands down towards the
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: field low. So we'll talk to some of those players
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: together and the implications of it, but that is the
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: ownership component for the sleep.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Let's see thoughts on Xander.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: So what was the other player deep dive that we
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: had from before Sanders About fourteen percent owned to my projection,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: So you know, he is kind of getting overlooked, he'd say,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: for one of these ten k range players, And he's
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: played decently at this course over the years, but he
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: hasn't had.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: A great track record.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: The forum is better on a lot of the other
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: guys around them, and you can see he hasn't cracked
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: the top ten outside of his T eight last year,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: so that's kind of weird for Xander. I mean, he
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: has a very consistent course history. I mean he's top
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: twenty five in every single year, so I guess our
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: expectations of him are just a little bit higher being
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: somebody that's in the top five of the pricing. But
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I would say that he's a decent leverage play, especially
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: if you're looking to get off of that Scottie shuffler.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: But I will say this, nine hundred dollars for Xander
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Schoffley is way more expensive than he should be. I mean,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: he hasn't played that well since returning from injury. Is
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: off that the accuracy has been a huge liability over
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: the last few months, So I'm kind of like it
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: raises the eyebrow a bit when he's nearly eleven thousand dollars,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: But other than that, I think he's a decent play.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Chris, what's going on? He said, appreciate all I do.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Let's have a week aim in to that.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, which round is more attractive for props
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: in parlays? So if you mean, like which round I've
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: had the most success with, it'd be round number one
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: because you can usually find a pretty big course edge
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: conditioned conditions edge before play ends up happening, But after
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: play has happened and they have a sample size to
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: work with, they're usually a little bit quicker to adjust.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm I'm a fan of round one, but round four.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Two I like for props because you can fade guys
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: that are in contention and kind of get that narrative,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: that mental aspect to one against them.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I like that quite a bit.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: One direction sick band. Oh god, yeah, I don't know
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: if I share that opinion. Frankly, isn't that like a
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: like a middle school girls band or something?
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: But who knows.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Hey, everyone can like it what they like. Thoughts on
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: call Morekawa love him this week. So Collins one of
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: my top plays first out right that I got to
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: at fifteen to one. He's a great course fit, so
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: that's why I like him, But he is coming with
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of ownership. So I've got to say, if
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: you weren't somebody that bet called Morikawa this week, he
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: wasn't one of your first plays that you had on
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: a Monday, you probably shouldn't be using him. And I
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: always like to say that when I go through some
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: of my plays here in a live stream, because just
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: because I like somebody does not mean that they're the
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: best play on paper. Because the fact of the matter
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: is he's the second highest Stones player on the slate.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: That is a massive red flag. So unless on a
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Monday you were like, yeah, this is a Mori Kaba course, Yeah,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I like the course history, because course history is elite
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: for Morikawa. He did have that one withdrawal two years ago.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: By the way, that withdrawal happened when he was in
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: the last group of the events. He was nearly going
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: to win that year. I then had to withdraw, So
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: he's done second near win. I'm going to give him
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: a lot of credit for that withdraw He played a
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: lot better than most people realize. Did miss the cut
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: the year before that, but then another second place finished.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: So let's just give him in a top three finish
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: with that withdrawal, because that's he was easily on pace
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: to do that, if not even improve on that for
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: his final round. Let's give him three top five finishes
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: over his last four starts. That's elite level stuff.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: So I like calling for that reason. I love the
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: course fit as well, but the massive butt here.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Unless you share that same kind of sentiment, you probably
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: you'd be better off going to a JT or a Xander,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: going down to.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Even a Can't Lay.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I've got it slightly lower ownership because the projections on
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: these guys, I know I have a lot of them
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: blacked out. I do have to keep those behind the
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: paywall for my members. But I'll will tell you that
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: the projection difference between like these four players here, I
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: think is like five points from like the highest to
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: the lowest player.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: So that matters.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: If you're playing cash, you're playing something where you have
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: to optimize that project projection. But for GPPs, we're not
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: really worrying that much about projection, like it's part of
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: the process, but it's not all the process. That's why
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: unless you love a Colin more Caba, the guys that
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: can't lay j ten Zander might even be a better play.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: So I will at least say that you're adicted to
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: ben In.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: He's let you down. Is there any hope he can
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: turn it around?
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: So I'm not addicted to Benny Inn. I'm adicted to
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Jordan Sweeth, that's for sure. I play him every time
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: he plays, But I would say he could turn it around.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: He plays well, long, hard golf courses. He does have
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: to find a way to hit fairways, though this isn't
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: the kind of golf course that you can shoot under
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: par if you're only hitting like five or six fairways.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: So we'll see how what he does off the tee.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: I'm playing, I'm ryan, I'm using him as one of
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: my low owned guys towards the bottom. I don't think
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: he's one of the players that we're gonna highlight and
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: talk through fully here. But I like myself some Benny
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: ann so I think he's got a chance to turn
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: it around. But he does have a lot of miscut equity,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: and I'm okay with that personally. So if you're gonna
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: play him, just know that, and you have to be
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: okay with it. If you're gonna play a Benny In.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: If he has a bad week, he's not gonna play
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: on Saturday and Sunday. But if he does have a
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: good week, then you might have to have him because
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: he's so cheap. Victor Hobblin breakdown. Tough time getting a
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: read on him, Oh boy man, he is so hard
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: to get a read on. In fact, the only time
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: I've even had to read on Hobland over the last
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: year was when he won the vast Bar Championship. And
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys saw my tweet on that.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I'll retweet it at some point because it's just like
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: an epic call out that I had. I said, you
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: put Victor hoblind In a weaker field event, and he's
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: going to win. He's going to outshine because all he
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: does is play these top level events. In these top
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: level events, I kind of a hard time wanting to
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: play Victor Hobblins because he's eighty nine hundred. He's priced
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: up for the occasion. It's not like he's priced down
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: after having a few bad weeks, and you can see
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: the ownership still there at about fifteen percent. So the
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: breakdown on him stat wise is go to the last
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: twenty four measured rounds. I mean, it's okay with the
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: ball striking, he's gaining close to a struck per round
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: with the irons, but the short game has been extremely inconsistent.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: In fact, if you take a look at the putter
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: over the last twelve rounds, I'm assuming it's going to
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: be super negative. So yeah, it does dip into the
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: negative point one four shots. I mean, he had the
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: one good bent grass putting leak earlier this year, so
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: maybe he can kind of le into that. But he's
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: a tough one for me too. Man. I don't have
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: the biggest take on him for this kind of week.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I will say, though, the next time we get Victor
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: hoblind in a weaker field event, I'm betting him out
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: right because he's gonna win that week. Let's say that
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: he plays like the Windham Championship. I'm not even saying
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: like a small field like scrubs are only playing it
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: kind of thing. I'm talking just like your regular PGA
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: tor event. He's gonna win that week. So Tommy lad
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: so kind of like more Cava. He's your third highestoned
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: player we have on the entire slate. So unless you
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: love the course fit the fourmoth Tommy Fleetwood, you probably
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: don't want to use him at that sort of an ownership.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: And I'm gonna have to keep my personal take on
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: whether I'm playing him or not behind the payball on
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: this one personally. But he is really good recent form.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: You did have that top finished last week on the
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: same type of greens. There is there's enough reasoning for
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: playing a Tommy Fleetwood where I had to think long
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: and hard about whether to play him or not, even
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: at that eighteen and a half percent, So I think
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of positives behind that play. The issue
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: with the Fleetwood at ninety four hundred dollars, you don't
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: have to win to payoff a ninety four hundred dollars
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: price tag, but it'd be nice to win if you're
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: playing somebody at over nine grand. This top two, top
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: three finish is really like the floor of what you're
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: looking for at these sort of guys. Maybe a top
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: five finish you get away with depending on how the
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: other nine k guys get away with it. I've got
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: to say, like Fleetwood's lack of inequity, I mean, let's
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: just give him zero percent win equity, and I hate
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: to be that guy, but until I see him win
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: an event, he's not going to win an event. I'm
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: just going to say that, like a zero percent win
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: equity until he goes out there and gets it done.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: If you're okay taking a zero percent in equity guy
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: in the nine k range, then then by all means.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: But I think that's a pretty big issue in my opinion.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: One to ten on Bobby Mac and Burns. So Bobby
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Mack six and a half out of ten. I like
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's a good driver of the golf
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: ball and all his wins and solid starts have usually
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: come at hard courses, So I like that for Bobby.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: But you know, the forums just average, so That's why
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I put him out like a six and a half
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: out of ten sam Burns four out of ten. Sam
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Burns does not really fit the style of golf course well,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: he does not really grind it out like you see
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: with a lot of the other guys in this range.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: But Sam Burns is playing really good golf. He's top
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: ten in recent form raking. And I'll say it, I'm
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: playing him even though I don't have the greatest stand
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: out of Sam Burns, because what we can't see that's
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: blacked out over here is that he's got real low
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: ownership compared to some of the guys around him. For example,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: a Ben Griffin is significantly higher roamed than the Sam Burns.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: I know, Griffin just had the win. He's coming in
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: with great form himself. In fact, he's top five in
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: the field when it comes to recent form ranking. But yeah,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: give me the lower round to Sam Burns compared to
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: it Ben Griffin. So yeah, I'm gonna play some four
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: out of tens, even some three and a half at
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: of tens in my player pool from any given week
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: if the ownership is right. And the one thing I'll
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: say about Burns y is I'm not using him any
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: single entries, any cash lineups, I think you'd be a
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: complete idiot if you played him in cash this week.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: But in GPPs, where that top five, top ten equity
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: is what you need from these guys, it's all about
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: having the absolute night if you want to win the
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: big five or twenty five dollars GPP. Sam Burns is
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: great for those formats because when he plays well, he
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: top tens.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: That's kind of his thing.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: When he doesn't play well, either missus cuts or he
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: finishes like T forty to fifty. So I'm okay with
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: that in large field GPPs. But if you're in like
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: a cash lineup or one of your big single entries,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: like I said, it'd be kind of silly to use
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the Sam Burns because his floor is non existent.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: He does not have a floor. His floor is dead last,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: kind of like a Nick Dunlop. And he shot in
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: getting some Sea Bez at the same price. Let's look
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: at it.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: So sea Bez is what is he super cheap? Sixty
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: nine hundred dollars. So let's take a look at the
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: shots gain metric, So sixty nine hundred bucks Sea Bez
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: losing off the tee but is gaining on approach and
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: around the green. Last twelve rounds, though, are a lot
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: more favorable for him. So I guess the reasoning for
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: playing sea Bez would be what we've seen over the
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: last few events is getting point eight five shots gained
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: approach per rounds, which you can see compared to the
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: guys around him, it's by far the best iron form
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: that you can find. The one thing I will say
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: that you're getting THEE is not super high ownership at
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: sixty nine hundred dollars, but you're getting over seven percent.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: He is one of the higher rowned guys that you
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: have at the top end of the six k range.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: So if you're gonna use them, is gonna save you
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: a lot of salary, and you know it's Scotty Seffler Lamps.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: I still think you could use a se Bez in
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: that sort of a build. He's just not going to
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: be one of the three or four players that you're
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: using to get that differentiation because comparatively, he's actually higher
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: roamed than a lot of the other guys around him.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: So Davis Thompson a player that I'll be using for
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit more leverage. But I got to say
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: se Bez projects better, you take a look at my projections. Really,
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: I would assume a lot of the projections around the
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: industry are going to favor a se Bez over Davis Thompson.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: There's a risk, and there's always pros and cons involved
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: with getting to some of these pivots, and yeah, projections,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: the one with Davis Thompson, right, you're not getting as
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: good of a projection play as a se Bez. But
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Davis Thompson is a tour winner. He's a guy that
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: I could see top five and top ten at this
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: sort of event, especially one that is so off the
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: tea heavy Brian Campbell one to ten ooh.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Four out of ten actually three and a half out
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: of ten sites.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: And I don't want to say that that's like condemning him,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: saying that he's gonna have a terrible week, But experience
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: matters at Memorial first timers in general, I'm kind of
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: skittish about here, unless you're Obert is a superhuman.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: He could still have a top finish his first time
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: around it. I worry about that, and then I worry
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: about the fact that it's a little softer this year,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: and that it's gonna be so cold Thursday and Friday morning,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: when I don't know when he has his morning tea time,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: whether that's tomorrow or on Friday, but it could be
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: a tough scene when it's like forty eight fifty degrees
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: and you're gonna get no rollouts. If he can get
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: through that front nine even par, then yeah, I think
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: he's got a really good chance this week. But I
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: mean that front nine when he's playing in those kinds
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: of weather, I mean it could be plus five plus
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: six real quick. And that's the thing, guys.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: Those early tea times over the next few days are
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: where guys are going to blow up. So if you're
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be tracking and hoping, kind of crossing your fingers
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: and hoping that doesn't happen, it's gonna be the morning wave,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, where you can see some big scores.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: I think it'll play here in general in the morning.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: But the issue is is if you're offline, off the
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: tee and the ball is not going very far and
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: the rough is going to be wet as hell, it's
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: gonna be damp, super lush, good luck, it is going
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: to be bogie central. If you don't have your best stuff.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Thoughts on Shane so high owned, but kind of get
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: it with Shane Lowry. He plays well these grinded out
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: golf courses. Also, of course, that driving accuracy is rewarded for,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: and he's a top twenty five driving accuracy player, so
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: I would say I get why he's getting that steam.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: He's also a player that projects well compared to a
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: lot of the other guys around him. Now he doesn't
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: project as well for me as a sept straka, but
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: he's in the top three to top four guys up
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: top when it comes to projection, So I think he's
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: a decent play.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: But you've got ownership behind it.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: You're struggling between Hoblins and Sea Wou for one and
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: done would I would weather break the tire or not?
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: So I don't see a massive weather edge ron, so
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't let that kind of determine it. I would
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: Here's I'll lay it out for you, Ran, because I
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: kind of think it's pretty simple with those two. For me,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: if you really want to go for broke, you go
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: with Victor Hobland because when he plays well, he top fives.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: But that does not happen very often at least based
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: on what's happened recently. However, Seawoo Kim, if you want
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: the safer option, you're kind of okay with punting this week.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: Let's say you're in a better spot than you're one
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: and done. Let's say you're already in like the top
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: five percent, then Seawi Kim's probably the smarter play just
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: because he's got a higher floor than Victor Hoblin. I
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: would say it kind of depends on your situation, because
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: if you're way behind man, let's say that you're in
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: like the bottom ten, bottom twenty five percent of your
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: one and done and you've got to get wins to
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: move up the board. Victor Hobland has like five times
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: the inequity of seawukm In. I know the odds would
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: reflect otherwise, but I think in this sort of golf
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: courses sort of event, it's true, like Victor Hobland has
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: shown us that he can take down these big time
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: golf courses, seaw Kim hasn't done it since the Players Championship.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: So and not to say that I'm not a big
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Seawu guy, I am, but like Hoblin's clearly the better
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: play right now, it's thoughts on Nick Taylor, and you're
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: saying as a GPP sleeper, so let's start with that.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: When I saw the second question about Oxha as well,
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: So as a GPP sleeper, you got the ownership component right,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: that's for sure. At sixty five hundred dollars, he's likely
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: going to be sub three percent owned in most contests.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: However, the course fit angle is like a five out
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: of ten for me.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: He's not one of the first guys that I was
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: gravitating towards the bottom end of the board. However, they're
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: going to be getting a lot lower ownership because the
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: form is fallen off towards the beginning of this year.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: I mean he had a lot of top finishes. The
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: first two three months. He was getting like a stroke
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: a stroke and a half per rounds. Nick Taylor in
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: the six k range was like ten to twelve percent
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: owned at times when he was getting disrespected by the
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: DraftKings pricemakers.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Now not so much.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Right now, he's only going to be in that like
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: two to five percent range. So yeah, he's a five
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: out of ten, but a five out of ten at
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: low ownership in the six k range is like a
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: nine out of ten, right, he kind of got to
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: look at it with that perspective of most of these
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: guys are terrible plays. So if you're five out of ten,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: that's actually pretty good. Yea, we're gonn shoohe on, Henley.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, man, I hope he stays low owned.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: What do I think it's necessary to leave money on
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: the table in single entries? And if so, how much
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: is too much to leave? I don't think it's necessary
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: as long as you're getting different with the ownership elsewhere
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: would piece? I think that might be overthinking it a bit,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: because what you've got to remember in most of the
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: single entries is that you're only entering against a couple
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: hundred people, And really the only reason we leave salary
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: on the table, or at least the main reason we do,
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: is to make sure we're not going to duplicate ourselves.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: And like in the Big five dollars twenty five dollars GPPs,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: when we have ten thousand plus entries that we're playing against,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: that becomes a much bigger factor than if we're only
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: playing against like two hundred entries. It's you know, it's
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: pretty easy to think about, but if you have fifty
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: times in the entries, then you've probably got about fifty
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: times the chance to duplicate yourself with another player. So
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: in those contests, I would say you more so just
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: want to make sure you have that leverage included than
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: leaving that salary on the table, because you really don't
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: have to worry about duplicating so much as getting that leverage.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean you can only play chalk in the
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: sort of contest. You's still gotta have that ownership leverage
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: to actually move up the leader boards when you get
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: guys right, But leaving salth around the table maybe not.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: The best idea. So great question, and let me know
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: if you have any follow up questions with that.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Well, you don't do a lot of golf on DK
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: said your takes help me a lot on Utderdog and Drafters.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Glad to hear, Michael, And yeah, we do focus on
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: DraftKings because it is the biggest site in terms of
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: fantasy golf, But yeah, whatever you can take and use
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: on those other sites, feel free to do so, and
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: glad to hear that you've had some success. So I
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: kind of gave my thoughts on Sibez before let me
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: know if you have anything else that you won on them.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: But I like the forum that zero point eighty five
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: shots gained approach is kind of hard to overlook. And
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: he said, what are my thoughts on Tommy lad His
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: odds are down to twenty to one. Yeah, man, it's
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: the volume bet on him. And you know, I kind
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: of gave that little spiel about him having zero percent inequity.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping I reverse motion, like he deserves to win.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: He's by far or the best four player I've seen
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: for decades has gone this far without a win. But
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's gone this far without a win,
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: like if you're bending them at twenty five to one,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: like what the heck are you doing with yourself? Because
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: he's never gotten it done before and we're bend him
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: as one of the favorites.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Like that's where I have that pushback. So I like
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: him this week.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Ross, He's like a seven and a half out of
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: ten for me. I just don't think he's gonna win.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: I just think he's gonna top five most likely, So
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: I hope he top fives, and hey, if he proves
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: me wrong and wins the damn thing, I will be smiling,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: right along with him, because if you guys thought the
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Ry win was pretty emotional, it won't be quite on
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: that same kind of level. But say Fleetload will be
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: crying on the green after he wins. I can almost
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: guarantee you that. How am I feeling about Deddy McCarthy. Ooh,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: one of these guys I kind of want to keep
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: quiet on. But I'll give you the little take here.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: He's a sneaky good play. He plays well these hard,
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: long golf courses. I mean, he's playball here before, as
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: the guys have seen with his results, his top five,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: top ten finishes. And it's not even just this long,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: hard golf course that he plays well. He plays the
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: major championship venues a lot better than you'd expect for
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: a player that's not known as a ball striker. So yeah,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: he's a sneaky good play And I hope the ownership
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: stays low on him, man, because that's kind of the hope,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: is that he'll be free to maybe five percent lower
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: round and some of the guys around him, And if so,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: that'd be kind of nice. He said he likes the
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: hovelnd called valspar, which is why you're curious about Memorial yeah,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: So it's the exact opposite ross. So like valspar, we
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: were getting like the super weak field, give me the event,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: where like he's by far the best player in it,
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: and he might be like twelve to one and that
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: of fifteen to one. I kind of know that ahead
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: of time, Right, You're not gonna get great odds if
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: he's in a weak field, but he's gonna win that event.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: Like I'm just that's I'm very convicted about that. By
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: the way, Like when that happens, he'll be my single
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: bullet bet that week. He'll be the only guy I
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: bet because of that. It's just it's a mental thing
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: for him. Two man, that's the reason I'm so adamant
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: about it. When he knows he's the best. Like last year,
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: the Starry two years ago the FATS cut playoffs, he
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: traalsed to everyone. It wasn't even close for a month,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: and then he took the break, he came back, he
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: tinkered in what happened, he completely fell apart.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: So I just I hope we can get that confidence
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: back for him, because that's all it is.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: He's the same golf or he's got the pretty much
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the same golf swing as what it was then too.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: It's just gotta be that mental factor Johnny Vegas thoughts,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: and he said, thank you sir, of course, man appreciate it.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Let's go.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Johnny Vegas is what sixty five hundred or something like that,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: or even cheaper sixty two hundred dollars on this kind
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: of slate.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: He's a piper off the tee.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know if the driving distance is really like
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: the biggest advantage around this golf course, but if he
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: can hit a bunch of fairways, he's gonna have short
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: clubs in So I think if you're going to play
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Johnny Vegas, the best place to do it would be
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: large field GPPs. Just because of that aggressive off the
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: tee play. It could go sideways. He could be one
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: of the guys that miss the cut down low. But
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: if he makes the cut, it's likely because he's hitting
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: a lot of fairways and he played well last year.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Actually his win was I forget the golf golf course
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: off come my heead, but it was a positional golf
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: course that Johnny Vegas won at, like he wanted a
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: golf course that you would never think that he would
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: win at. This week, it is a more positional golf course.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: But I don't think a stand of the world for him.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: He clearly showed us last year that he can win
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: at this sort of place. Jetty McCarthy deep dive so
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: gave my quick thoughts on that a few minutes ago.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Let me know if you have any other questions about him.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: But I think he's a good play. I just hope
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: that he's low owned thoughts on Burger. So him and
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Shane Lowry are kind of like the same thing for
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: me this week. I understand why they're chalky, but they're chalky,
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: and if you're gonna play them, or if you're gonna
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: consider using either option, that has to be where you start.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: You've got to think about the game theory before committing
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: to either player, because as you can see, they're close
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: to that fifteen to sixteen percent mark. You can say
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: the same thing about Hovlin's except Straka. If you're going
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: to use them, commit to them. And I'll say, over
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: these four players, I'm using two of them, so Sepstraca
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: is clearly one of the two that I'm playing. Of
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the other three, I'm playing one of them and then
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: feeding the other two. So the idea would be is
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: that even if you're one fifty maxer like myself, you're
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: gonna have to pick a few of these guys to
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: play and then a few of them to go out
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: there and fade.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: That's it's not a massive issue.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: It's just something that you have to think about if
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play one of these four guys. Is that
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: the ownership is going to be inflated. He said, you're
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: with me, You're with me, Sam Burns is a positive
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: approach week away from contending. It's for real, man, like,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: all that has to happen, and it's a lot. And
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: I said, all that has to happen, and there's gonna
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: be a lot that I say here because he has
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: to hit fairways and hit his.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Iron as well.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: And I know it sounds sort sweet and really easy
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: to go out there and do, but it's not for else.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Everyone would do it, and everyone would be winning these
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: tour events. You gotta lugy a luddy outright and a
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: Cam Davis. You're saying, is Cam Davis the key to winning?
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: So I guess that's two thoughts there. First off, the
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: luddy outright, I'm okay with it. I didn't get there myself,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: but he was one of the few guys I was
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: considering betting this week. Outright number was twenty two to
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: even twenty five to one on books, So I think
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: you did pretty good there yourself, especially if you got
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: that twenty five to one. And then is Cam Davis
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: the key to you winning two winter k We're gonna
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: do a pretty big deep dive on Cam Davis here
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: in a second.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: In fact, we'll just do it now. We don't. We
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: don't have to do it in any sort of structured manner. Hell,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: we're all over the place anyways with these questions, so
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: why not just keep it going that way? Yeah? I
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: like Cam Davis.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: He's one of those super lowened guys towards the bottom.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: I've got him at like two percent ownership, and it's
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: the exact same thing as Sam Burns. He's going to
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: hit fairways and hit some greens, which doesn't always happen
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: for Cam Davis. He's a sprayer off the tea and
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: he's not the most consistent iron player. But when Cam
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Davis does that, he's going to be in contention in
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: a top five, top ten. So I would say Cam
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Davis would be best used in a large field GPP,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: which if you're asking about a two hundred K prize
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: pool there, then maybe it's not the worst idea to
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: play at cam Davis because those are going to be
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: the large fil GPPs where you're getting that sort of
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: a payout, So could miss the cut. I know that
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: when I'm playing at cam Davis. But I also know
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: that if I get things right, that he's going to
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: top five, top ten, and there are guys around him, like,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: for example, a Matt Kucher. When Matt Kocher gets it right,
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: it's like a top fifteen to top twenty, which who
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: gives a rats ass about a top fifteen to top
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: twenty finish in this six K range when there are
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: enough guys down here that I can guarantee you, I mean,
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: I'll just say it right now, one of these six
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: K range guys is going to top ten, at least
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: one of them, probably like two or three of them
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: are gonna end up finishing in the top ten. You
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: don't need these top fifteen's, top twenty, top twenty fives
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: that you might get from your mac Coochers of the world.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, bring on the risk, give me the high
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: upside players. Because that's what really matters. He said, females
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: got some good form, two solid starts in a row, so.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: I think he hit the nail on the head.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: He's playing well. I don't really have any negative things
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: to say about a Tony Feenw. I would say the
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: one thing I would say about a Tony Feinw is
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: that he's got to hit some fairways. This isn't the
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: best course fit from that angle, but we've seen him
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: play long, hard golf course as well. Before Tory Pines
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: really comes to mind. He's had a really good track
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: record at the Farmers. Different agronomy, but kind of the
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: same off the t test as what you're gonna get
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: at Memorial. I think he's a pretty sharp play. The
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: ownership is relatively low, so he's not getting as much
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: steam as he probably should. And let me just double
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: check on whether he made it into my last set
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: of lineups. He was either in my lineups or one
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: of the last few guys I wasn't able to get to.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: And yeah, he's one of the last few guys add
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: to my player pool, so knowing that will probably win
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: the event. Now it'd be the guy that I absolutely
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: had to have becauid, how's my raider bought tier Rader?
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: And by the way, sorry, I forgot your question from before,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: and I don't think it was Alan who asked. If
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: somebody did ask my take on Okha, I actually don't
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: know what to say about Okha. You'd see him like
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: scratching my head here because like a five out of
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: ten is likely the answer I have to give because he.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Is an accurate driver.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: He drives the ball like we'd want around a memorial. However,
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: he hasn't really done it year before. He hasn't played
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: ball really any hard golf courses. Almost all his top
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: finishes seem to be at like average to even easy
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: golf courses, which is okay. Sometimes that's just your style
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: of golf that translates to success. But five out of ten, man,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: I I gotta say, he kind of confuses me around here.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: And just to double check on I'm pretty sure he's
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: in my player pool because the ownership's not outrageous on
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: an Akha Bitia, It's just I could see him missing
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: the cut. I could see him top five and cop
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: ten ing. I don't really know what to think about
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: the guy, And uh, yeah, he's not in my player. Well,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: actually he's one of the few guys that didn't make
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: it in there, so just like, yeah, the last player won,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: surprise me. If he top five is then Alex Nord
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: and Brian Harmon won through ten. Brian Harmon six out
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: of ten. I like the afcuracy off the tee. He
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: plays we long hard golf courses as well, which is
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: kind of surprising for Brian Harmon. I mean, the guy's
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: a four foot tall or whatever, so you went't really
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: thinking'd play well when it's seventy six hundred yards, but
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: six out of ten because he has shown that before
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: and then Alex Norn. I was kind of skeptical at
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: the PGA Championship. I think most people were right. You
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: haven't seen the guy play for six months, and then
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: he has that top level finish. I'm still kind of
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: skeptical about it. And I hate to say that because,
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: I mean a major championship. He proved it to us
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: for three of the four rounds, but he fell off
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: so hard in rounds four that it's kind of hard
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: to overlook that. So I'm gonna put him at a
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: five out of ten because I really like what we saw,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: but really I think it's still a little early on him.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: It just feels like when guys come back from injury.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, Xander Schaffley is probably the best example of it.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: He only missed like two and a half months since
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: he still hasn't found his game quite yet, So that's
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: why I have that kind of hesitation would say thoughts
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: on Ryan Fox. I don't want to steam them up here,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: but I love Ryan Fox this week. So if you're
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: thinking about playing him at sixty five hundred dollars, I'm
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: not going to talk you off of that whatsoever. He's
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: got the kind of off the tee play where if
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: he can hit fairways it could work around Memorial. He
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: is more of a distance over an accuracy guy, so
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: he does have to hit fairways to make that kind
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: of thing work. But he's got that same thing going
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: on as like a Sam Burns. That's though Minwu Lee
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: into that same bucket as well. Minwou Lee, who are
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: actually gonna be mean to talk up.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Here in a little bit.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: He's only about three percent ownes. He's another one of
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: those guys that isn't the prototypical course fit around here.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: But if he has a spike accuracy, week, which happens.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: Even guys like Rory will sometimes hit like eighty percent
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: fairways on a week. Sometimes Bubba Watson back in the day,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: who couldn't find the fairway for his life, sometimes will
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: have like an eighty percent fairway week. When those guys
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: did that, they won golf torn And maybe that's not
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: gonna be a win for a minimum. Might not be
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: a win for Cam Davis, but what's the top five,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: top ten if they go out there and have that
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: kind of week. So yeah, he's I'm okay with it, man,
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: He's that high upside play that you just have to
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: be okay if he misses the cut, Like it's gonna
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: happen a lot, like forty percent of the time. Even
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: those guys are gonna like miss the cut. If you're
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: okay with that, though, is a great play if you
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: can make it through the weekend. Hughes really missed the
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: cut last week. How we feel about a bounce back?
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: I could see it and yeah, what he bog in
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: the last hole to not make it. I would say
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: I kind of like those guys for bouncebacks because they
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: don't play that terribly. Like I mean, if you missed
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: the cut, by half a stroke or a stroke. You
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: were just a little bit worse than the field average,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: and all the miscuts look the same for people that
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: are box score watching, if you're just looking at past performances,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: you're like, oh, he missed the cut. It's gonna look
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: the same as the guy that shot plus ten.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I'm okay with it.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: He I will say as well, he plays wealt US
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: Opens in the past at like the Tory Pines. He
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: played well at that US Open, and you wouldn't have
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: thought it for McKennon. He hughes Longhard golf course where
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: it's demanding off the tee, but he's shown it to
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: us before. Yeah, three m was the Johnny Vegas outright win.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Thanks for the reminder, and uh yeah, of course that
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: you don't have to be a bomber at so just
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: kind of strange that he'd been there and not at
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: like a an API or something where bonding it matters.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, your bombs. I'm okay with it.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not there myself, so he's not in my player pool,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: but he's the exact same kind of stat profiles like
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: the Ryan fox Is, the Sam Burns, the mid Woolies,
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: where if they hit fairways, watch the hell out.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: It could be a big week. Michael Kim thoughts he's so.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: The issue I have with Michael Kim is the health
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: because he's told us that he's dealing with some back
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: issues and stuff.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: But he's playing okay golf.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: He's about neutral with the shots game metrics, so you
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: know there are better form guys around him, like a
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Bud Colley.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: But but Cole he's like eleven percent owned.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: Michael Kim's going to be like five percent owned, so
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: he's a five out of ten. I don't have a
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: massive hot take. And now the direction there any Grazerman
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: loves seems to be playing decent at these type of courses. Yeah,
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: and he's another one of the guys I didn't really
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: want to steam up, but we won't see him up
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: too much here.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I like myself.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: Some graze him and he puts well on bent grass,
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: gains zero point nine strokes per round on bent grass.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: He hasn't had amazing form lately, but towards the beginning
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, he sucked like he was missing cuts.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: He was like at best finishing in thirtieth, So he's
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: not in that kind of form. Now. He's getting about
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: point six strokes per round, so I think he's a
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: very short play also not going to be super highly owned,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: and hopefully we can keep it that way, because that's
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: part of the reason I really like him.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Kennick Dunlop go back.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: To college and figure this out. I think he's doing
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: just fine, man, and it's just one thing going wrong
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: for him.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: It's the off the t play.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: So don't be surprised if Dunlop gets that thing figured
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: out in the next few weeks and potentially wins an
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: event here this year that I actually don't think I'd
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: be surprising at all, considering that he won twice last year.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: Do you think that Max Homa is getting better? Yes,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: I do, Derek.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I think that the shots gain metrics kind of showed
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: that as well. Ball striking has improved, But I don't
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: think he's back quite yet. You've seen his best performances
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: at golf courses that he's very comfortable on, so I'm
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: still weighing a little bit on that thoughts.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: On Wyndham, you think he's usually good out of the
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: deep rough.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: That's true, but the skill set that has really gone
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: it done around here is more of the accuracy side,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: and if you take a look at his course history,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: it hasn't been that good around this golf course. So
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: I think the US Open will be a pretty good
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: fit for Wyndom Clark. But I think you want guys
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: that aren't missing fairways. This week the miss Faarawey penalties
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: between point three to point five shots depending on how
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: far from the green you are, So I think that's
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the bigger factor for me. And you said he's out
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: of form. He is out of form, but he's not
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: as out of form as you'd think. He's got the
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: same thing going on as Victor Hoveland. By the way,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: the next time we get Wyndham Clark at a golf
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: course that kind of fits his game and I want
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: the ball strike and that's to be just.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: A little bit better on Windom.
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: So maybe we can get like a couple weeks in
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: a row where he gains with the irons and then
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: just like Hovelin, you put him in a weaker field
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: event and Wyndom Clark is going to win, and I
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: don't maybe not the first time, but like the first
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: or second time you put him in a weaker field events,
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: He's gonna have the same exact thing happen. And I
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: wish I could tell these core players what I know.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: I've just noticed it over the last few years is
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: all these guys, they have all this success and then
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: they only go play against the world's best, and then
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: they wonder why they can't win anymore. It's because you're
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: not playing against the shitty fields anymore, man. And it's
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: not like a diss against those guys. They're great players,
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: but they're not the best players. They're not Scotty Shuffler.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: So if you want to win events, man, this is
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: watching this Windom, your Wyndham's team, Victor Hobb and your team,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: any of those guys in an A K range, just
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: play some of the weaker field events.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I know you have to travel another week, you have
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: to play anymore. But if you win two miliver first,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: then do you really care? That's what I would say.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: You went for Scotty big bet and Seewoo Kim's small
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: place bet in Bradley. Okay, he said, you think Skuy's
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: gonna have an amazing weekend. I cannot contend that he's
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: world number one. He's got plus two eighty odds just
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: the odds kind of suck, right, that's the only thing
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: with bend them ount right, But I'm not against that
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Lucas Glover do anything for me.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: I like the accuracy off the team.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: I like the iron, so I'll be there myself, he said,
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: thanks for doing the show of course, Kep. And the
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: one thing I will say alan about Lucas Glover two
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: is that he is getting some ownership, so I have
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: him a little bit over five percent down low, so
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: unlike you're Cam Davis's that are gonna be like sub
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: five percent. He does have a little bit more steam
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: around him, but.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: It's not massive steam. He said.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: To continue with Homa, Do I think he's gonna be
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: low owned or high owned. I have him about average
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: ownership for that portion of the board, and it's partially
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: because he's overpriced. I think Draftings did a pretty good
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: job pricing him up, so I don't think he's going
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: to be super popular for you. Thoughts on the Tour
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: Championship format. I love it, especially as somebody that's gonna
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: be there in person and watch it. It makes it
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: a lot more entertaining for fans, which I would say
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: the merit aspect of like working all year to finish
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: in first and then not getting anything for it really sucks.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: But hey, it doesn't impact me. I'm not going to
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: be number one in the FedEx Cup and I'll just
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: be watching as a fan. So I think it's good
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: for us, terrible for the players. And then he said
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: he needs to play the Rocket. Yeah, man, seriously, and
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: I think Rocket more, which classic for Wyndham Clark.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: He wins by five. I mean you can spray it.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: It's like Cam Davis, right, he won there spraying it
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: off the tee. Yeah, just show up to those golf
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: courses and you can find some success. So we're gonna
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: go through the lamp construction here real quickly before hopping
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: on out of here. The contests that are available are
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: all kind of full now, and because I only have
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: eight minutes to my next live stream, we're gonna cut
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: this segment.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: You guys know my take on choosing contests.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Take sustainable contest, Take the ones that aren't like thirty
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: forty percent to first place, which for the most part
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: and most of you guys watching this, you should be
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: looking at a lot of single entries. So the one
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars two hundred dollars single entries, twelve thirty three dollars,
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: five dollars single entries. Depending on your stakes and the
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: kind of bankroll that you have for dfs, just enter
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: ones that make the most sense. Since you know, let's
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: say that you have one hundred dollars bankroll, it doesn't
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: have to be one hundred dollars single entry. That's not
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying. I more so mean like, take that
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: one hundred dollars and enter a bunch of different single entries,
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: maybe two of the thirty threes, two of the twelve dollars,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: and two of the five dollars GPPs. Those six lineups
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: add up two one hundred dollars if you want to
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: use that as your kind bankroll strategy, So implement that
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: play sustainable contest and you're gonna have a lot more
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: fun down the line. But let's build a line up
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: here together. And it's because we don't have a massive
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: weather edge to incorporate. It is all about making sure
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: that we get that differentiation. So I know we mentioned
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: about starting with Scotti before putting it down to seventy
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: three hundred dollars. Re mating does all the work really
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: when it comes to getting different So let's throw it
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: in Aaron Rye. I know we mentioned the Scheffler Rye
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: start before, but now because we're down in the bottom
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: end of this seven K range, as long as we're
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: not taking the chalk of the chalk plays, we're gonna
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: be getting all the differentiation that we're looking for. So
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: let's throw in a min Mouley is one of those
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: high upside GPP plays that I was mentioning before. Let's
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: throwing the Taylor Pendrith another high upside GPP play. Let's
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: throw in a home He's not my favorite play, but
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: we can throw him in here for the sake of
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: this exercise. And then, no matter who you're using as
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: your last man in here, even if it was one
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: of the more popular players, like a Bazaine here I
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: think's probably the most popular guy that we have. At
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: sixty nine hundred dollars, you're gonna be differentiated ninety nine
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: percent of the time with this kind of bill because
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: you've got three four guys you might be borderlined with
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: de zay hit whether he's going to be like sub
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: six percent owns, they've got like four sub six percenters
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: that you're getting all that product ownership differentiation with If
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: you don't start with Scotty, though, you have to be
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit more careful about it. So for example,
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: if we started a Moricaba went Fleetwood is our second
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: min in, and then maybe went with a Daniel Berger
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: at eighty six hundred dollars, we're now down to seventy
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: three hundred remaining for our last three spots, which was
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: kind of the same scenario that we were in before.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: But now if he wanted to use like an Aaron Rye,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: we still wanted to use him in the seven k range.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Let's say now we've only got two spots to get
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: different with, and you have to be really careful with
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: your last two spots here, because if you aren't and
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: you take guys that are seven to ten percent owns,
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: you might not have the differentiation that you need. So,
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: for example, let's say that you played a bot Ya
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: who I actually have it like seven eight percent ownership,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: and then your last minute here was I don't think
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: there's anyone super choky in this range, but let's go
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: with the I guess Adam Scott Wind and Plark they're
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: both pretty low on. But even if you a pretty
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: low end guy sub five percenters, your last min in here,
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: you might not have enough leverage because you've really only
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: got two spots. We're getting all that product ownership different
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: So that's why I think the Scottish shuffler lineups are
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: actually advantageous when it comes to getting different because if
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: you're gonna start with a more common lineup, then.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: You have to be a lot more careful at this
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: portion of the board.
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: So for example, maybe rather than playing a Daniel Berger,
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: you know down the line that you're gonna be dealing
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: with differentiation issues right.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Getting enough of that leverage, that's where you go.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: You know what, I'm gonna take a stand and use
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: a Sun JM who's a little bit lower owned and
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: a little bit cheaper, so it gives you a little
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: bit more salary with your last min in here, you
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: still have to be very careful about getting different maybe
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: even consider leaving a few hundred dollars on the table
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: to ensure that you don't duplicate yourself.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: It's just a little bit more.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Involved if you don't take a Scottis shuffler. So make
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: sure that you're jamming in enough differentiation into your lineups.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: The bigger the contest. By the way, this is probably
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: the easiest role that I could give you. The bigger
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: the contest, the more leverage that you need. Smaller the contest,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: the less leverage that you need. It's really easy to understand.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: Are you only entering against a couple hundred people, you
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: only need a couple spots to move up the leader boards.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: You're playing against twenty thousand people. You better have the
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: nuts to go out there and take that sort of
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: thing down. So it's all got, guys going to go
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: ahead and cut off the live stream here as I've
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: only got a few minutes before we got to do
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: the prop and bedding side. But for that, make sure
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: to check out my YouTube channel that would be gsloopdfs,
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: where you guys can find all the prop and betting
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: stuff around number one we're talking underdog, also prize kicks
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: on my YouTube channel, some three balls and matchups for
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: the sports books, as well as well as any other
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: specific deep dives that you have. So if you guys
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: had any specific questions that I couldn't get to, or
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: maybe you're just catching up to this part of the
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: live stream now, feel free to go over to my
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: YouTube channel and I will still touch on those questions there.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: It's just that I've got to get that live stream started.
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: We've got to get through both live streams before nine pm.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: So if you have any of those, I'll touch on
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: them last second over there. But it's all I've got, guys.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: I appreciate you showing love to the channel as you
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: guys always do subscribe if you guys haven't already, so
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: you guys don't miss any of the to come on
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: top of this live stream. We do showdown live streams
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: here on the shipped channel for rounds two through four,
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: so make sure you stay tuned for that, and for
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: rounds two through four and props embedding. I do the
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: same thing that I'm about to do on my YouTube
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: channel for rounds two through four as well, So subscribe
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: over here.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to my.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: YouTube channel so you guys don't miss any of that
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: content as it drops. And let's take down a contest
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: or two. And you know, still remember in DJ seventy five,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: the big guy in the sky looking down on us.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: We'd love to take something down for him and be
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: able to shout out the big guy up top.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: But best luck, guys.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Still thinking about our dude over there, and let's make
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: this week and a good one for him.