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Can SpaceX Send People to Mars without NASA? - Elon Musk Podcast · Elon Musk Podcast

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  This is the Elon Musk Podcast, your daily hit of what is really
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  going on at Tesla, SpaceX X AI and the rest of the Musk
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  universe. I'm your host Will Walden, and I
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  have covered Elon Musk for more than five years, spent a year on
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  the ground at SpaceX, Starbase during early Starship
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  development. And before this, I spent my
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  career as a software developer working with billion dollar
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  companies. I've also built and sold my own
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  businesses, and now I make content and help other people
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  grow their companies. And on this show, I use that
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  experience to break down the news, filter out all the noise,
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  and give you clear context you can actually use.
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  Something happened the other day when I was on Reddit.
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  We started a discussion around SpaceX sending people on a
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  Starship from Earth into space. Now let's back up a little bit
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  here. SpaceX is in the 11th test
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  flight. The next test flight will be
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  their Block 3 Starship, which is more powerful and bigger than
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  their Block two flights. Now Block 2 has had some
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  incidents. A few of the flights have, well,
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  let's just say blown up, had a Rudd mid flight.
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  And the problem with that is that when that happens, it is
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  not a good thing if people are aboard, right?
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  So we're going to be talking today about how people will be
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  flying inside of a Starship and what it actually takes, the
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  regulatory landscape that surrounds it.
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  It is wild what people can do with Space Flight now because
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  it's not all determined by NASA anymore or by a government body
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  other than let's just say the FAA.
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  And maybe there's gonna be another government body in the
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  future that's going to be taking part of this.
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  But right now, it's just the FAA that works on this stuff.
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  This is actually one of the most fascinating regulatory gaps in
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  the entire space industry. And understanding it requires us
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  to explore how human spaceflight certification evolved from about
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  60 years ago in why we're entering truly uncharted
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  territory with Starship. Now let me take you through the
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  landscape of how human spacecraft had been certified
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  historically, because what you're identifying with this
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  problem is a profound challenge that the industry hasn't really
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  solved quite yet. Thanks to our amazing community
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  members like you, we've reached the top 15 of Spotify's video
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  podcast, the top 10 audio podcasts on both Apple and
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  Spotify for the tech category. So you all make this possible.
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  If you want to support us more, check out our Patreon.
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  That's patreon.com/stage 0 News, so we can keep this free and
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  open for you to enjoy. Something interesting happened
• 2:58
  the other day. I was looking through our stats
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  on Spotify and Apple Podcasts and I noticed that about 55% of
• 3:06
  you are not subscribed to the show.
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  That means 45% of you are subscribed and I really do
• 3:11
  appreciate your support. Now, the other 55% of you are
• 3:16
  awesome, but I'm going to ask you for a favor.
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  Could you please hit the subscribe button?
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  It'll take you one second. I'm going to promise you 10
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  years of this podcast for free, No pay walls.
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  I'm not going to charge you anything ever, but I'm going to
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  give you 10 years of this show for free.
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  I've already been doing it for five years and I plan on doing
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  it for 10 more. And the only way that we can
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  continue doing this is with your support.
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  So one second of your time to hit the subscribe button right
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  now would help the show tremendously.
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  Thank you so much. Now for the 1st 60 years of
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  human spaceflight. The concept of human rating
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  existed entirely within government agencies.
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  NASA developed its human rating standards through hard learned
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  lessons from Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo, and the Soviets had
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  their own internal processes, though less formally documented.
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  The Chinese space program follows similar government
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  internal certification, and in every case, the same
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  organization that operated the spacecraft also certified its
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  safety. Now, this created a particular
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  dynamic The certifying agency had skin in the game.
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  When NASA certified that the space shuttle was safe for
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  astronauts, NASA leadership was putting their own people at
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  risk. The engineers who signed off on
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  Crew Dragon safety knew that their colleagues, sometimes
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  their friends, would be riding in it.
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  This personal investment created a certain rigor, though, as
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  Challenger and Columbia showed us, it wasn't foolproof.
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  Now, the Commercial Crew program marked the first time that NASA
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  certified vehicles it didn't own or operate.
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  But even this wasn't truly independent certification.
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  SpaceX and Boeing were contractors working to NASA
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  specifications and requirements. When NASA deeply embedded in the
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  design process from day one, Yes, engineers had visibly
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  looked into every design decision, every test result,
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  every anomaly investigation, and the companies couldn't just show
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  up with a finished spacecraft and ask for certification.
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  NASA was involved throughout the entire development process,
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  making it more of a joint effort than independent verification.
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  Now here is where things get really interesting.
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  The Federal Aviation Administration.
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  The FAA, which regulates commercial aviation with
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  incredible strictness, takes a fundamentally different approach
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  to commercial human spaceflight. Under current law, extended
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  through January of 2028, the FAA is explicitly prohibited from
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  creating safety regulations for spacecraft occupants.
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  They can regulate launches to protect the public on the
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  ground. They can protect airspace, but
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  they cannot tell SpaceX or Blue Origin or anybody else how to
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  keep passengers safe. This learning period or
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  moratorium reflects a deliberate policy change by Congress.
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  The thinking went like this. The commercial space industry is
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  too young and evolving too rapidly for prescriptive safety
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  regulations. If the FAA stepped in with
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  requirements based on 1960s capsule designs, they might
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  inadvertently prevent innovations that can make Space
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  Flight safer and better and faster.
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  Better to let the industry experiment and learn, with
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  passengers accepting the risks through informed consent.
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  Now think about what this means in practice, though.
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  When Blue Origin flies paying customers on New Shepherd,
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  there's no government certification that the vehicle
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  is safe. Instead, passengers just sign a
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  waiver acknowledging they understand the risks.
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  The FAA verifies that Blue Origin has insurance that they
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  won't drop debris on populated areas, in that they've informed
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  passengers about these risks, but not that the vehicle meets
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  any strict particular safety standards for the people inside.
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  Virgin Galactic operates under the same framework, despite
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  carrying paying customers to space.
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  No government entity has human rated Spaceship 2 in the way.
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  NASA human rates vehicles. The company developed its own
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  internal safety standards, conducted its own test program,
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  and made its own determination that the vehicle was ready for
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  passengers. I think FAA licensed the flights
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  but didn't certify the safety of the occupants.
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  Now, the informed consent model works for tourism and private
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  flights, but it has crucial limitations.
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  NASA won't accept it for their astronauts.
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  They require full human rating certification for their
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  standards. No other government agency has
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  shown willingness to put their personnel on vehicles certified
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  only through informed consent in insurance companies, while
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  willing to cover some risk, haven't yet figured out how to
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  price policies for regular commercial human spaceflight
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  operations. Now the model also assumes
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  passengers can meaningfully consent to risks that might not
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  be fully understood. And when you board a commercial
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  airline, decades of operational data inform the safety
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  statistics. When you board Starship, how do
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  you evaluate the risk of the belly flop maneuver when it's
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  never been done with humans on board?
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  How do you price the risk of 18,000 heat shield tiles where
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  we don't have statistical models for their failure rates?
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  Looking internationally doesn't provide much additional
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  precedent. Even Russia has sold seats on
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  Soyuz for decades, but these flew under the Russian Space
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  Agency's government certification.
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  Tourists were essentially along for the ride and government
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  missions. China hasn't opened the program
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  to commercial participation yet. The ESA European Space Agency
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  has never developed independent human spaceflight capabilities.
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  The closest international parallel might be how maritime
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  classification societies like Lloyd's Register or DNV evolved
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  to certify ship safety independently of government
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  agencies. These organizations developed
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  from insurance industry needs. Insurers wanted independent
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  verification that Sips were seaworthy.
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  Over centuries, though, their standards became so respected,
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  the governments often simply require classification society
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  approval rather than conducting their own infections.
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  Now. This maritime model points
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  toward one possible future for spaceflight certification.
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  We're seeing early movements in this direction.
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  The Commercial Spaceflight Federation and industry group
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  has developed some voluntary standards.
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  ASTM International, which creates consensus standards for
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  everything from steel to toys, has a committee on commercial
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  spaceflight. But these are still voluntary
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  guidelines, not certification programs with real teeth and
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  grit. What would give such standards
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  that grit and teeth? Insurance requirements might Dr.
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  adoption. If insurers demanded independent
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  certification before covering flights, operators would have to
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  comply. Large corporate customers might
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  require certification before putting their employees on
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  spacecraft. And eventually, after the FAA
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  moratorium expires, regulations might reference industry
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  standards rather than creating government requirements from
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  scratch. Now this brings us back to
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  Starship. For NASA missions, SpaceX must
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  meet NASA's human rating requirements.
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  But for private missions, SpaceX faces a genuine certification
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  vacuum. The FAA can't certify occupant
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  safety until at least 2028, and even then they'll likely take
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  years to develop regulations. No independent body exists with
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  credibility and expertise to certify something as complex as
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  Starship. SpaceX could sell, certify,
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  essentially saying we've done our homework and believe this is
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  safe. That's legally sufficient for
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  private flights under current regulations.
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  But would customers accept it? Some would.
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  Now, would Jared Isaac men climb aboard A Starship based solely
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  on Spacex's internal assessment? Probably.
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  In. The cancellation of Deer Moon
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  suggests at least some customers want more assurance than SpaceX
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  can currently provide. Now the company could pursue
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  voluntary oversight, perhaps inviting independent experts to
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  review their safety processes, similar to how some crypto
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  exchanges undergo voluntary audits to build customer
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  confidence. They could publish their safety
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  analysis and test data for peer review.
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  They could adopt standards from aviation or other industries
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  where applicable. But none of this would
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  constitute true independent certification of the kind
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  government agencies have traditionally provided.
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  Now, perhaps the most likely near term development involves
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  the insurance industry stepping in as de facto certifiers.
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  If SpaceX wants to carry passengers, they'll need
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  liability insurance. Insurers, before writing
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  policies, will demand extensive technical reviews, test data,
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  and possibly design modifications.
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  The requirements might become the de facto safety standard for
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  commercial human spaceflight. And this insurance driven model
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  has precedent. And early aviation insurance
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  requirements often drove safety improvements faster than
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  government regulations. Insurers had direct financial
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  incentive to reduce accidents, leading them to demand pilot
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  training standards, maintenance procedures, and design
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  improvements that later became regulatory requirements.
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  And for Starship specifically, insurers might demand
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  demonstrated reliability through hundreds of cargo flights.
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  Independent review of critical systems, additional redundancy
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  in certain areas, or even design changes like adding a board
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  capabilities for human flights. The premiums they charge would
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  reflect their assessment of risk, creating market signals
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  about safety that might be more responsive than government
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  regulations. Now what we're witnessing with
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  Starship is the space industry grappling with a fundamental
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  transition from government dominated to commercially driven
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  human spaceflight. The regulatory and certification
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  frameworks haven't caught up with the technology.
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  There's no established independent board with the
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  expertise, authority and credibility to certify something
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  as revolutionary as Starship for human flight.
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  And this gap creates both opportunity and risk.
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  It allows SpaceX to innovate without regulatory constraints
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  that might prevent breakthrough approaches.
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  But it also means passengers on early flights will be pioneers
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  in the truest sense, test dummies accepting risks that
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  aren't fully quantified or independently verified.
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  The industry will likely evolve toward more formal certification
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  processes, but Starship might fly humans before those
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  processes exist, making its early crew participants in a
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  grand experiment in commercial space governance.
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  Now, the precedent that Starship sets, whether through successful
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  flights or tragically, through failures, will likely shape how
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  this whole industry approaches human certification for decades
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  to come. And in that sense, SpaceX isn't
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  just developing a new vehicle, they're pioneering an entirely
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  new model for determining what a spacecraft is safe enough for
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  humans. The fact that no clear precedent
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  exists outside government agencies isn't just irregular
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  curiosity anymore. It's a fundamental challenge
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  that can determine whether a commercial human spaceflight
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  beyond tourism becomes viable. Hey, thank you so much for
• 14:32
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
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  support. If you could take a second and
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  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
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  support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stagezero and
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  please take care of yourselves and each other and I'll see you
• 15:01
  tomorrow.