Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Week 16(!) NFL And Bowl Parlay Show
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. I'm Chad Mellman from
- 0:14Speaker 1: the Action Network and this is the Parlay Show and
- 0:19Speaker 1: we are getting so close. Me and my brothers from
- 0:22Speaker 1: the Action Network. Paul la Duca ten years in the majors,
- 0:25Speaker 1: four time All Star. Jeff Schwartz eight years in the NFL,
- 0:28Speaker 1: is an offensive lineman. We have been trying to win
- 0:31Speaker 1: a nine team parlay since the start of the NFL season.
- 0:37Speaker 1: Last week we abandoned making bets on sides and totals
- 0:42Speaker 1: and we just tried to do a straight up moneyline parlay.
- 0:47Speaker 1: Just picked the freaking winners and we came so close. Boys,
- 0:51Speaker 1: so so close. Jeff Schwartz, how close did we come? Anyways,
- 0:57Speaker 1: we were six and three. We had a one point
- 0:58Speaker 1: loss in Kansas City, we had Jacksonville and it's paricably
- 1:02Speaker 1: losing to to the Redskins and then the Rams. Though
- 1:06Speaker 1: that was a coacher, I mean they were bad. I
- 1:08Speaker 1: mean I get while he picked him, clearly they should.
- 1:10Speaker 1: There were thirteen half point favorites. Um, but wow, that
- 1:13Speaker 1: was that was ugly last night. We were close, though,
- 1:16Speaker 1: We're gonna get there. This week had a feeling there's
- 1:17Speaker 1: some good games Paully, how are you feeling. I know
- 1:20Speaker 1: you're getting You're struggling a little bit right now. Yeah,
- 1:22Speaker 1: I'm okay, I'm all right, let's get through this. Um. Yeah,
- 1:27Speaker 1: I'm struggling a little bit the rams. You're right, Um.
- 1:31Speaker 1: And Gurly didn't look like he was going to be
- 1:35Speaker 1: going home sleeping well last night and after that game.
- 1:37Speaker 1: I hope he's okay. He came back in the game,
- 1:39Speaker 1: I didn't have a chance. Their offense is just broken.
- 1:43Speaker 1: I mean, they tweet last night the Cooper Cup was
- 1:46Speaker 1: he was he the key? Well I put that on
- 1:48Speaker 1: Twitter yesterday and a couple of responses back from you know,
- 1:52Speaker 1: people that I trust, and you know they said basically,
- 1:54Speaker 1: you know he's your he's their first option. But I mean, sure,
- 1:56Speaker 1: you still have Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, you're tight end ends,
- 2:00Speaker 1: Jared Goff, a good offensive line. I think what happened
- 2:03Speaker 1: is is they they got to a point where they
- 2:08Speaker 1: became too um too not too conservative, but but to
- 2:13Speaker 1: a point where they became too one dimensional. They run
- 2:16Speaker 1: the same personnel grouping percent of the time eleven personnel.
- 2:20Speaker 1: They lind up in mostly the same formations, and they
- 2:23Speaker 1: do basically the same stuff all the time with a
- 2:26Speaker 1: lot of window dressing. They run a lot of zone
- 2:28Speaker 1: that run a ton of play action passes, so teams
- 2:30Speaker 1: are hammering their offensive line. They're really getting after their
- 2:33Speaker 1: tight ends in the run game, and then then they're
- 2:35Speaker 1: just sitting in zone coverage and making Jared Goff beat
- 2:38Speaker 1: them without breaking routes. They're not allowing the wide receivers
- 2:41Speaker 1: to get open the middle of the field and it's
- 2:43Speaker 1: really affecting golf and turned the ball over a ton
- 2:45Speaker 1: now and they just look like they're broken. They've won
- 2:48Speaker 1: the and they've won the West, so they need to
- 2:50Speaker 1: focus the next two weeks on trying to get this
- 2:52Speaker 1: offense back. That's a great uh analysis there, Jeff, because
- 2:59Speaker 1: Jared Goff is not like the last five weeks hasn't
- 3:01Speaker 1: looked like the same quarterback. And this is where betting
- 3:05Speaker 1: becomes a fascinating canary in the coal mine, because you
- 3:09Speaker 1: could see that the Rams going back to when they
- 3:13Speaker 1: played the Packers, when they played the Seahawks, when the
- 3:16Speaker 1: public was all in on the Rams at these crazy
- 3:19Speaker 1: levels and the point spreads were so high and they
- 3:23Speaker 1: stopped covering, and you could just tell, like I think
- 3:26Speaker 1: the last six or seven weeks. They may be covered
- 3:28Speaker 1: one game and it was against the Lions on the road,
- 3:31Speaker 1: in a chance where the Lions had a chance to
- 3:33Speaker 1: back to it, in a game where the Lions had
- 3:35Speaker 1: a chance to back to our cover. And like they
- 3:37Speaker 1: have not been the same team at all. They lost
- 3:39Speaker 1: to the Saints, they lost to the Bears, like um,
- 3:43Speaker 1: and this looks like a Jared Golf problem to me.
- 3:48Speaker 1: I think it is a big Jared Golf problem. You know,
- 3:50Speaker 1: he's a quarterback that I know we was talking about
- 3:53Speaker 1: system quarterbacks and whether or not that's a good or bath.
- 3:55Speaker 1: I mean, he definitely plays well in the system, and
- 3:57Speaker 1: he's a guy that I don't think takes very well
- 3:59Speaker 1: to getting Now a lot of quarterbacks don't, so it's
- 4:01Speaker 1: not like it's something that's only a Jared Goff problem.
- 4:03Speaker 1: But he's been getting it hit a lot more than
- 4:06Speaker 1: he had ever been hit or in the season the
- 4:08Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, whether it was Futcher Cox last night,
- 4:10Speaker 1: just just wreaking havoc in the middle of that Rams
- 4:13Speaker 1: offensive line. And maybe it is as simple as as
- 4:16Speaker 1: Cooper cup was the guy they used in the middle
- 4:17Speaker 1: of the field. He's not there anymore, and they haven't adjusted.
- 4:20Speaker 1: But Sean McVeigh is supposed to be in office in
- 4:22Speaker 1: an offensive genius like he's supposed to figure this out.
- 4:24Speaker 1: We see Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco with a third
- 4:27Speaker 1: string quarterback beat the Seahawks yesterday. Their offense continues to
- 4:30Speaker 1: run um Baker Mayfield rookie. Their offense continues to get
- 4:34Speaker 1: better with a with essentially a fill in offensive coordinator.
- 4:38Speaker 1: So the Rams have gotta you know, Sean McVeigh, it's
- 4:40Speaker 1: up to you, man, you gotta figure this out, and
- 4:42Speaker 1: you gotta get you know, get golf some confidence, get
- 4:44Speaker 1: him back on track. It's also interesting to me, you
- 4:47Speaker 1: made a really good point. And this is something that
- 4:49Speaker 1: the broadcasters talk about all the time too. The Rams
- 4:53Speaker 1: almost take pride in running everything out of the same set.
- 4:57Speaker 1: It's like we are smart than anybody else. So it
- 5:03Speaker 1: doesn't matter what what anyone else is gonna do. We're
- 5:06Speaker 1: gonna trick them with the way we run motion and
- 5:08Speaker 1: all these kinds of things. But it's gonna be the
- 5:10Speaker 1: same set. Why don't they just run different sets? Why
- 5:13Speaker 1: don't they just add that? How hard is it? Well,
- 5:17Speaker 1: it's not very hard, but this is their identity, and
- 5:19Speaker 1: I think now they've they've they they're gonna have to
- 5:22Speaker 1: do something different next week. And like I said, they've
- 5:24Speaker 1: already won the NFC West. Now they're fighting for for
- 5:27Speaker 1: a playoff by and with the Bears win yesterday, they're
- 5:29Speaker 1: only one game behind the Rams, and they have obviously
- 5:32Speaker 1: the tiebreakers. So the Rams have got to keep winning games.
- 5:34Speaker 1: But you've gotta find ways throughout the next couple of
- 5:36Speaker 1: weeks to figure something else out on offense, whether it
- 5:40Speaker 1: is adding a second tight end and doing you know,
- 5:41Speaker 1: having two tight informations. I'm not even sure they have
- 5:44Speaker 1: a fullback on the roster, but bringing some more pro
- 5:46Speaker 1: sets stuff in there. Um coaches are very stubborn, right,
- 5:50Speaker 1: and they're they have they have egos, and they want
- 5:52Speaker 1: to run what they know best. And what happens is
- 5:54Speaker 1: I find it's very happens very often to the best
- 5:56Speaker 1: offensive coordinators, the best of them. It happens any read
- 5:59Speaker 1: all the time. Time is when things don't go well,
- 6:03Speaker 1: you revert back to what you know best. So the
- 6:06Speaker 1: ramp things don't go well, Okay, guys, let's get back
- 6:08Speaker 1: to our base stuff. Let's do what we normally do well.
- 6:10Speaker 1: That baseduff is not working, so they have to stink
- 6:13Speaker 1: outside the box moving forward, and I think I think
- 6:16Speaker 1: they'll figure it out now the playoffs though it's not
- 6:18Speaker 1: setting up too great because if they got to play
- 6:20Speaker 1: the Bears in l a um In in in this,
- 6:24Speaker 1: I don't want. I don't like that matchup for the
- 6:25Speaker 1: Rams at all. I'll tell you what a long the
- 6:30Speaker 1: dog whisper would not be happy with Sean mcveigh's body language.
- 6:33Speaker 1: I mean, he looks like he's a dead panic on
- 6:36Speaker 1: the sideline in the last two days, last two weeks.
- 6:39Speaker 1: I'm sorry, first time they've lost back to back games
- 6:42Speaker 1: under McVeigh. He's he's he's freaking And I think you're
- 6:45Speaker 1: right about Chad. He's very, very stubborn. He's gonna stick
- 6:49Speaker 1: to his guns because he is this offensive genius and
- 6:52Speaker 1: he's this and he's at like the worry on his
- 6:54Speaker 1: face listen, and the kid dropped the ball on he
- 6:57Speaker 1: muffed the punt, like, you can't have that bodyline, which
- 7:00Speaker 1: church your players. You have to tap the kid on
- 7:02Speaker 1: the head, go get him next time. It's it's starting
- 7:06Speaker 1: to frustrate him now, and that frustration can roll over
- 7:09Speaker 1: to his players. I just looked like that to me
- 7:11Speaker 1: in his face at the end of that game. Speaking
- 7:13Speaker 1: of frustration. This weekend, Paul Duca, you posted a video
- 7:19Speaker 1: of getting thrown out of a game by calling pitcher
- 7:24Speaker 1: calling balls, by protesting balls and strikes. Uh. It's hilariously
- 7:29Speaker 1: funny and one of the best things that people always
- 7:32Speaker 1: talk about when like guys get thrown out are the
- 7:35Speaker 1: things that get players thrown out. Explain to our listeners
- 7:41Speaker 1: exactly what happened, set up the game, set up, who
- 7:45Speaker 1: was pitching, set up, who you were playing, the count,
- 7:48Speaker 1: the scenario, where you were in the season, and then
- 7:51Speaker 1: take us through what happened. We're playing the Oakland A's
- 7:54Speaker 1: and now was Jason Kendall that was catching, Joe Blant
- 7:57Speaker 1: was on the mountain, and um, I was a a
- 8:00Speaker 1: hitter that I really did not care the strike zone
- 8:04Speaker 1: with nobody on base, but the basically were loaded in
- 8:06Speaker 1: that situation. Um So, now hold on, hold on, what
- 8:10Speaker 1: year was it? Where were you in the season? What
- 8:13Speaker 1: was I was oh six or O seven? I want
- 8:15Speaker 1: to say it was oh seven. Um and we're obviously
- 8:19Speaker 1: in the midst of a Pennant race. Um So, like
- 8:22Speaker 1: the basically loaded zero zero game, and Glavin that night
- 8:27Speaker 1: had thrown like I don't know how many pitches on
- 8:30Speaker 1: the inside corner because that was his corner. And and
- 8:33Speaker 1: Marvin Hudson actually like Marvin was the umpire, and he
- 8:37Speaker 1: had not given him that pitch all night. And the
- 8:44Speaker 1: pitch before that was down, and that pitch to me
- 8:48Speaker 1: was borderline inside. Now it caught the inside corner, but
- 8:51Speaker 1: he had not given it to me all night. So
- 8:53Speaker 1: the first thing I said to him, I said, the
- 8:55Speaker 1: first pitches down and that one was inside, let's go.
- 8:59Speaker 1: And then he at me that. He took off his
- 9:01Speaker 1: mask and he came after me, Um, what do you
- 9:05Speaker 1: mean when you said let's go? What were you saying
- 9:06Speaker 1: to what? What was the what does that mean? And
- 9:09Speaker 1: get your head out of your ass? Basically what it is.
- 9:13Speaker 1: I'm sitting back there. You gotta understand, I'm the one
- 9:15Speaker 1: that I used to tell umpires all the time. I'm
- 9:17Speaker 1: the one that's calling pitches like why are you why?
- 9:21Speaker 1: Why are you screwing me? Like I'm the one that's
- 9:24Speaker 1: talking to him, going listen, you haven't given me this
- 9:26Speaker 1: pitch all night, let's go. So then when I came
- 9:29Speaker 1: back into the box and turned back around. I said,
- 9:32Speaker 1: let's freaking go. I never cussed, and then he tossed me.
- 9:36Speaker 1: And that's why I went berserk. And if you see
- 9:38Speaker 1: the second part of that, I'm telling Ed done you
- 9:41Speaker 1: that if he goes. At that time, Frank Robinson was
- 9:45Speaker 1: the disciplinary person that handed down suspensions and fines. I said,
- 9:49Speaker 1: if I get fined, I'm going to report all of
- 9:52Speaker 1: you guys. I never cussed. I never said a word.
- 9:54Speaker 1: If he can't handle me turning around and saying something
- 9:57Speaker 1: to him because the crowd's in his face because he
- 10:00Speaker 1: he's been making bad calls all night and he shouldn't
- 10:02Speaker 1: be umpire and umpiring games. And then all they do
- 10:05Speaker 1: is say this and that. I never got a fine
- 10:06Speaker 1: for that game, but I got suspended. How does that happen?
- 10:10Speaker 1: Did you get suspended because you started throwing stuff out
- 10:12Speaker 1: of the field. Yeah, and Gary Cohen didn't help me.
- 10:16Speaker 1: Also Gary Cohen, the Mets broadcaster. Yeah, that says I
- 10:21Speaker 1: shouldn't have got thrown out of that game. Put on
- 10:24Speaker 1: the tracks track here, And I always thought the rule
- 10:26Speaker 1: was if you get personal with umpire, that's when you
- 10:28Speaker 1: get tossed. You can listen, there's certain guys, just like officials,
- 10:32Speaker 1: there's certain guys you can just go off on and
- 10:36Speaker 1: they'll take it and this and that, and then there's
- 10:39Speaker 1: just certain guys to take it personal. I merely pointed,
- 10:43Speaker 1: Did I turn around? And I pointed, and I said
- 10:45Speaker 1: that first ball was down, the first ball was inside.
- 10:48Speaker 1: He took off his mask and came right after me.
- 10:50Speaker 1: So when when when when an umpire takes off his
- 10:52Speaker 1: mask and comes after you, what are you supposed to do? Okay,
- 10:56Speaker 1: to shoot all over me. I'll sit there and take it. No,
- 10:59Speaker 1: I can't back. And I said, let's freaking go buckle down.
- 11:03Speaker 1: Then he tossed me. You know what, he should have
- 11:05Speaker 1: tossed me before that, And that's when you know I
- 11:08Speaker 1: went berserk. But the problem was I had to and
- 11:11Speaker 1: people was this in that I played with Willie Randolph
- 11:14Speaker 1: for two years. I love Willie, great guy. You know,
- 11:16Speaker 1: many times he got thrown out of a game in
- 11:18Speaker 1: two years zero, So somebody had to do stuff like
- 11:23Speaker 1: I did. Zero. You have to off my favorite baseball
- 11:28Speaker 1: player growing up. You have to stick up for your
- 11:30Speaker 1: players sometimes even right or wrong. You know, sometimes guys
- 11:35Speaker 1: do stupid stuff on the field like I did that day.
- 11:37Speaker 1: That was stupid. He stuck up for me. But he's
- 11:40Speaker 1: supposed to get thrown out of that game and go
- 11:42Speaker 1: ballistic and act like I'm right. That's how you stick
- 11:45Speaker 1: up for your players. But he just stood there and
- 11:47Speaker 1: stood there. What do you do? So when you get tossed,
- 11:49Speaker 1: you go back in the clubhouse and do you just
- 11:52Speaker 1: get changed and then go home or do you like
- 11:54Speaker 1: hang out? No, no, you gotta hang out. You gotta
- 11:56Speaker 1: hang out. So you go back, you hang out, You
- 11:58Speaker 1: blew off some steam, you try to I remember going
- 12:02Speaker 1: back at the club. I was trying to like inch
- 12:04Speaker 1: and going guy that pitch really was a strike man,
- 12:09Speaker 1: trying to trying to sell myself that it was a ball.
- 12:11Speaker 1: But yeah, you go back in there, you sort of
- 12:14Speaker 1: just blowing off steam. You don't really want to leave
- 12:17Speaker 1: because if you leave, we had to winning the game
- 12:19Speaker 1: when nothing which is good. You really really hope that
- 12:22Speaker 1: you win the game because you don't want to cost
- 12:23Speaker 1: the team, you know, the game. Speaking of costing us games,
- 12:33Speaker 1: maybe we should pick nine teams that we know we're
- 12:36Speaker 1: gonna win so we can make some money. You guys, ready,
- 12:44Speaker 1: you guys, ready, let's do it, Jeff. All Right, lots
- 12:49Speaker 1: of games this week. There's lots of games that look great,
- 12:53Speaker 1: but I'll tell you the one. Well, no, no, no,
- 12:56Speaker 1: they don't play this week. It's the Panthers and Falcon's interesting.
- 12:59Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Saturday night. This is gonna
- 13:03Speaker 1: be a big game. But I think the Titans are
- 13:05Speaker 1: gonna win this game as ten point favorites against Washington. Look,
- 13:08Speaker 1: Washington was a great story last week. All right, they
- 13:11Speaker 1: go to Jacksonville. Jacksonville is a not a good football
- 13:15Speaker 1: team right now in in in UH with Cody Kessler
- 13:19Speaker 1: leading them, They're they're just not a good team. They've
- 13:21Speaker 1: given up already. Washington goes in there. Teams we often
- 13:24Speaker 1: see this, They get like a little boost at times
- 13:26Speaker 1: with a backup quarterback playing his first game. Right the
- 13:29Speaker 1: defense doesn't have film on him, especially a mobile quarterback
- 13:32Speaker 1: and Josh Johnson. There's no chance that they go in
- 13:36Speaker 1: to Tennessee this week with the way the Titans are
- 13:38Speaker 1: playing defensively and win this game. Even if the Titans
- 13:41Speaker 1: play ugly on offense, which they do at times, their
- 13:44Speaker 1: defense is really good under Mike Rabel, and I'm going
- 13:47Speaker 1: with the Titans here on Saturday night. I hope we
- 13:49Speaker 1: don't loses parlay by Saturday night. How hard can it
- 13:53Speaker 1: be to pick nine games right just to be on
- 13:58Speaker 1: the right side like I do picks can pick him
- 14:01Speaker 1: every week with uh my best friend Matt. We've been
- 14:05Speaker 1: doing it for years, mano Amano. Against the spread, the
- 14:11Speaker 1: winner sends the loser as many second place trophies that
- 14:16Speaker 1: are as embarrassing as possible, and it's the greatest feeling
- 14:20Speaker 1: in the world. It's the greatest hundreds of dollars I've
- 14:24Speaker 1: spent the past five years when I've kicked his ass
- 14:27Speaker 1: in against the spread and pigskin pick him. I sent
- 14:30Speaker 1: him trophies that are so big he's got to put
- 14:32Speaker 1: him together with his kids because I want him to
- 14:34Speaker 1: be shamed. I want him to feel bad about losing
- 14:38Speaker 1: to me so many times, and I wanted to span generations.
- 14:42Speaker 1: I want his kids to feel his pain. Right every week,
- 14:49Speaker 1: I probably picked between I don't know eight and eleven
- 14:54Speaker 1: games right against the spread. Against the spread, we can't
- 15:00Speaker 1: even pick nine fucking games right as winners. What am
- 15:06Speaker 1: I supposed to say to that? Do you like my
- 15:08Speaker 1: times pick or not? I like, yeah, I love it's great.
- 15:15Speaker 1: Maybe nothing not to like about it. I love the Titans.
- 15:19Speaker 1: I've been on the type. I don't know why I
- 15:21Speaker 1: bet on them this week too, I don't I don't
- 15:23Speaker 1: know why we haven't won. I mean, it's the first
- 15:24Speaker 1: week we've done the money one last week was so
- 15:28Speaker 1: we're we're getting there. We're gonna get there. Are you ready?
- 15:34Speaker 1: College football? The Army Black Knights. I told you this
- 15:36Speaker 1: last week, UM Major Apple White fires his defensive coordinator
- 15:43Speaker 1: first of all, after they lost in Memphis, which is
- 15:45Speaker 1: a similar not not similar running style. But now you've
- 15:49Speaker 1: got a new defensive coordinator that has to prepare for
- 15:51Speaker 1: the triple option they're and according to Colin Wilson, see
- 15:59Speaker 1: in the nation against the stuff in in stuff rate,
- 16:02Speaker 1: which would be Houston. UM, but with Ed Oliver not
- 16:06Speaker 1: on the field, they were gave up almost close to
- 16:10Speaker 1: forty five points with him not on the field. With
- 16:13Speaker 1: him on the field, the yards per carry go down
- 16:15Speaker 1: almost three yards. He is not playing. He's gonna get
- 16:18Speaker 1: ready for the draft. This line also, UM has gone
- 16:23Speaker 1: from sixty seven to sixty because I just think that
- 16:26Speaker 1: Army is just going to possess the ball. Plus Houston's um,
- 16:31Speaker 1: starting a freshman quarterback. They lost their quarterback. You know,
- 16:33Speaker 1: he's got a couple of weeks to prepare and got
- 16:35Speaker 1: a little bit better. But I just think Army is
- 16:37Speaker 1: gonna run all day and all night all over Houston.
- 16:43Speaker 1: I like this pick and for all added one more
- 16:46Speaker 1: thing in there as well. You mentioned the Houston quarterback change.
- 16:50Speaker 1: And they're not gonna have the ball enough, in my opinion,
- 16:53Speaker 1: to score enough points. And we know that when you
- 16:56Speaker 1: play a team like Army, points are the premium. I mean,
- 16:59Speaker 1: Army is in two. They're good for a reason. They
- 17:01Speaker 1: score points, they hold the ball. They hold the ball
- 17:03Speaker 1: against Oklahoma for forty five minutes of that game. Um,
- 17:07Speaker 1: I think they're going to win this game, and they're
- 17:08Speaker 1: gonna win this game big. And they're only a three
- 17:11Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. So so there, you know,
- 17:12Speaker 1: they're their money lines minus one seventy. It's good value
- 17:15Speaker 1: for the parlay. This guy's legit. He's going to be
- 17:27Speaker 1: a legit NFL guy and Oliver I will I will
- 17:30Speaker 1: side bet you that he will not be a good pro.
- 17:33Speaker 1: Really yeah, he makes you way better. Do you do
- 17:37Speaker 1: you think it's an attitude thing? No? No, No, The
- 17:40Speaker 1: jacket thing was stupid. That was major. Apple White was
- 17:44Speaker 1: being a douchet as a coach. Um, No, I I'll
- 17:48Speaker 1: tell you why so. And Oliver's undersized attack it was
- 17:51Speaker 1: like two eight five And if that size, you have
- 17:54Speaker 1: to be an elite pass rusher to play in the NFL.
- 17:57Speaker 1: And he's not. No, I know. The idea is, well,
- 17:59Speaker 1: he's athletic in such a freak show and they played
- 18:02Speaker 1: him in this kind of three four two gaping style
- 18:04Speaker 1: uh D tackle in college. But we we we don't
- 18:07Speaker 1: see very often where a D tackle who cannot rush,
- 18:10Speaker 1: who can not rush the pastor very well in college,
- 18:12Speaker 1: becomes an exceptional pass rusher in the NFL. You should
- 18:15Speaker 1: be able to rush the passer beyond your athletic traits,
- 18:18Speaker 1: just using your quickness or your or your size. And
- 18:20Speaker 1: we see a guy like like Quentin Williams Alabama. I
- 18:23Speaker 1: mean he hit he hit a double team with he
- 18:27Speaker 1: swam moved one guy, swatted the arms, and hit a
- 18:29Speaker 1: guy with other swim move. He did three moves in
- 18:31Speaker 1: one like that to me are transferable traits a guy
- 18:35Speaker 1: that can't rush the passer and you say, hey, buddy,
- 18:38Speaker 1: go do the NFL with less practice time now less
- 18:40Speaker 1: time in paths. I don't see it. I don't think
- 18:42Speaker 1: he'll be as good as people think you think it
- 18:44Speaker 1: will be. God, that is great analysis. That is great,
- 18:48Speaker 1: great a professional analysis right there. Thank you. What do
- 18:54Speaker 1: you think of your alma mater, ore Agon scoring the
- 18:58Speaker 1: top player in high school football? About that? From where? California? Yeah,
- 19:03Speaker 1: d N he went to eat went to Oaks Christian. Um. Yeah,
- 19:07Speaker 1: that's a big get for us. I'll tell you what, Mario,
- 19:09Speaker 1: crystal Ball is doing a fabulous job recruiting. Um that
- 19:13Speaker 1: that only we've never gone a player that high. I
- 19:15Speaker 1: don't I mean, I can't even imagine. I think Jonathan
- 19:17Speaker 1: Stewart might have been the highest player we had ever gone.
- 19:19Speaker 1: But how about that? A defensive end to like, so
- 19:22Speaker 1: it's fantastic. How much do you think it matters though,
- 19:26Speaker 1: Like when you get to that level? I don't know that,
- 19:29Speaker 1: like getting six they have six ESPN three D guys,
- 19:33Speaker 1: top recruiting class in the country. Probably when it's all
- 19:35Speaker 1: said and done. Yes, if you look at the national championships,
- 19:41Speaker 1: A buddy of mine did a breakdown I don't have
- 19:43Speaker 1: in front of me. But if you look at them,
- 19:44Speaker 1: pretty much like the last fifteen years. You have to
- 19:47Speaker 1: have like a top ten, like a composite top ten
- 19:49Speaker 1: class over the previous three seasons to win a championship,
- 19:53Speaker 1: like you need to have that. You need to have
- 19:54Speaker 1: the talent there. I didn't know that. Yeah, you know
- 19:59Speaker 1: what I do. Oh, I know I'm making a pick,
- 20:03Speaker 1: and I know I'm choosing Indianapolis to win, to win, Okay,
- 20:13Speaker 1: to win against the New York Giants. Oh yeah, oh yeah,
- 20:23Speaker 1: I'm seeing minus four forty. There's not minus four seventy five.
- 20:28Speaker 1: I'm seeing in one place. Marlon Mack is really fun
- 20:34Speaker 1: to watch. The run by the way. I like this
- 20:37Speaker 1: whole team. No, no, they're getting better. You're right. They
- 20:40Speaker 1: they they're the mini Bears, like they're not. Can't go
- 20:42Speaker 1: there because the Bears are for real. But they're ascending.
- 20:47Speaker 1: I am with you. Their defense is getting better too.
- 20:50Speaker 1: If you're me, you're feeling really good that you have
- 20:56Speaker 1: Super Bowl tickets on the Saints and the Texans, but
- 20:58Speaker 1: you also have the Bear errors in your super Bowl pool.
- 21:05Speaker 1: I don't I don't think the Bears can go to
- 21:07Speaker 1: New Orleans and win. I don't either, but I don't
- 21:09Speaker 1: mind having to go to the championship games. So when
- 21:11Speaker 1: I get to the Super Bowl, uh so I am
- 21:15Speaker 1: locked when it gets to the championship game for having
- 21:18Speaker 1: a team I have a bet on in the Super Bowl.
- 21:22Speaker 1: I bet the Saints Patriots, like two weeks ago, on
- 21:24Speaker 1: their futures. I have to make up for my Atlanta pick.
- 21:31Speaker 1: That is a bad pick. Jeff your next. I am
- 21:36Speaker 1: all right. Two options on the NFL side in my opinion,
- 21:39Speaker 1: I'll say the other one for last because we might
- 21:41Speaker 1: have a good debate on that one. Chargers at home
- 21:43Speaker 1: against Baltimore on Saturday night. Here's the deal. I've said
- 21:48Speaker 1: this for weeks now. It still holds true. The Baltimore
- 21:50Speaker 1: offense is fake, is is non sustainable. The last five
- 21:55Speaker 1: weeks they rushed for two dr yards every game except
- 21:59Speaker 1: that they were like one n against the Chiefs. And
- 22:01Speaker 1: they've played the five worst rushing defenses in the National
- 22:05Speaker 1: Football League in a row in a row, like they
- 22:07Speaker 1: had the luck of being able to do this five
- 22:11Speaker 1: weeks in a row. Well, this week they head to
- 22:13Speaker 1: Los Angeles and look, there's no homeful advantage for the Chargers.
- 22:17Speaker 1: They actually don't play as well um at home, but
- 22:19Speaker 1: they are playing good football. And they're beating teams that
- 22:21Speaker 1: they're supposed to be when they have to beat them.
- 22:24Speaker 1: Outside of their one loss against the Broncos, they've now
- 22:26Speaker 1: gone by the way and they've been Seattle in Seattle,
- 22:29Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh, and the Chiefs in Kancie. They are
- 22:32Speaker 1: a really good football team. They actually might be. And look,
- 22:35Speaker 1: I'm a Chiefs fan, but I think that they're the
- 22:38Speaker 1: most complete team in the AFC right now. Baltimore is
- 22:41Speaker 1: gonna go in there. They're gonna play that defense, the
- 22:43Speaker 1: Chargers defense, and they're gonna get stuffed the entire game.
- 22:46Speaker 1: They don't have any chance in my opinion, the charges
- 22:48Speaker 1: of the nine defense dv o A heading into you know,
- 22:51Speaker 1: the coming out of last week, I should say that
- 22:54Speaker 1: they're they're not gonna put up enough points in my opinion.
- 22:56Speaker 1: And the Chargers with Gordon back their reporty he'll be
- 22:59Speaker 1: back this week. Keenan Allen's fine, Mike Williams Antonio Gates
- 23:03Speaker 1: for some reason, you can keep doing it. I like
- 23:05Speaker 1: the Chargers big in this game. Uh, I just don't
- 23:08Speaker 1: buy the Ravens at all with that offense going on
- 23:10Speaker 1: the road across country. First, great defense, they played. Don't
- 23:12Speaker 1: buy it at all. I think Philip Rivers just never
- 23:17Speaker 1: gets his dude. I mean, if you lo well, no,
- 23:23Speaker 1: if you look at the winds they've had in December,
- 23:26Speaker 1: they've won at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, those are two
- 23:32Speaker 1: just all you need to know right there. I mean, like,
- 23:35Speaker 1: and I know they've always come up sort of phony
- 23:37Speaker 1: towards the end. I think this is the one year,
- 23:39Speaker 1: this is the one year that they might and they
- 23:42Speaker 1: might not be funny. I mean, this is I am
- 23:45Speaker 1: with you. I'm with you. I told you to Lamar Jackson.
- 23:49Speaker 1: We had Baltimore last week because because of Tampa has
- 23:52Speaker 1: a bad run defense in Tampa. Was in that game
- 23:55Speaker 1: for a while. I know you were hanging in the bounds, Chad,
- 23:58Speaker 1: you had you need. They game ended eight. I middled
- 24:02Speaker 1: that thing on eight. I had one option for middling,
- 24:07Speaker 1: and I nailed it. They call me the Millie Monster.
- 24:14Speaker 1: Will you will you middle another game by accident? I'll
- 24:17Speaker 1: tell what happened. You know, I do this pick up contest,
- 24:21Speaker 1: as I've mentioned with my buddy Matt Sports Center. And
- 24:25Speaker 1: you wrote seven books and yeah, okay, seven books and
- 24:28Speaker 1: uh four best stars. Um, but listen, hey, Jeff, your
- 24:31Speaker 1: book right now is uh part of the stand that
- 24:35Speaker 1: makes my computer higher when I do TV from my
- 24:38Speaker 1: UM from my house. You please take a picture of that.
- 24:42Speaker 1: That's fantastic because UM, thank you for buying it. By
- 24:46Speaker 1: the way, UM, we need to we need to get
- 24:48Speaker 1: our copies of someone. Someone text me tweeting me a
- 24:50Speaker 1: picture they bought it for. I guess for Hoartocare or something.
- 24:52Speaker 1: I'm like, I didn't know they still made them. I
- 24:54Speaker 1: know many to have in the warehouse. Not many. You
- 24:56Speaker 1: can you can get an Amazon. Yeah there's, but there's
- 24:59Speaker 1: there's not many the warehouse. Because they said I bought some.
- 25:02Speaker 1: They were putting half of them on auction for like
- 25:04Speaker 1: three dollars and then if they didn't buy them, they're
- 25:07Speaker 1: just going to destroy them, they told me. I was like, wow,
- 25:12Speaker 1: what happens. So in the pick hum contest, I had
- 25:15Speaker 1: uh I bet Baltimore minus seven and a half. I forgot,
- 25:19Speaker 1: and then on Sunday morning I fired away on um
- 25:22Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus eight and a half. And so I'm like, well, shoot,
- 25:26Speaker 1: now I've got a root for Baltimore and I've got
- 25:28Speaker 1: a root for Tampa. Do I want to win my
- 25:29Speaker 1: pick hum or, do I want to win my bet?
- 25:31Speaker 1: And it ended up landing on eight, which is exactly
- 25:34Speaker 1: what I needed. Wow, look at you the middle monster. Okay,
- 25:43Speaker 1: we'll just get it out of the way, just just
- 25:45Speaker 1: to ching it. New England. We're on the Chargers. Look, look,
- 25:48Speaker 1: I I freaking love the Chargers. Yeah. I love the
- 25:51Speaker 1: Chargers too. So it's my pick now, right, Yeah? I know, Yeah,
- 25:54Speaker 1: I just I didn't know what you picked. Yeah, this's
- 25:56Speaker 1: just put this to ring the bell and move on, right, Yeah,
- 25:59Speaker 1: move on, New England, New England. Move on thirteen points
- 26:02Speaker 1: against Buffalo. Let's just move on. Honest to god, I
- 26:05Speaker 1: don't know why that wasn't the first pick, Like, yeah,
- 26:08Speaker 1: I mean it was gonna be one of our picks
- 26:10Speaker 1: right at some point. Yeah, I was just waiting to see,
- 26:12Speaker 1: like what kind of happened, And it was always in
- 26:13Speaker 1: our back pocket. Someone's gotta pick that game. It's like
- 26:17Speaker 1: a suicide pool, only we could use them every week
- 26:19Speaker 1: to try to win money. By the way, I looked
- 26:23Speaker 1: at the odds, I looked at the money line number,
- 26:24Speaker 1: and I think they were a minus eleven hundred. Go
- 26:29Speaker 1: we gotta win, though, right, you just gotta win, man, no,
- 26:32Speaker 1: I'm sorry minus thirteen hundred, their minus thirteen hundred and
- 26:35Speaker 1: William Hill minus eight hundred and five times. Just win,
- 26:43Speaker 1: even if it's like five bucks each. We're just gotta
- 26:46Speaker 1: win some money. Speaking of winning, you guys ready Los
- 26:55Speaker 1: Angeles Rams on the road at the Arizona Cardinals. They're
- 27:01Speaker 1: gonna be a minus a thousand two. They're fourteen, right.
- 27:06Speaker 1: I told you guys a long time ago. I'm an
- 27:08Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinal fan, and you guys didn't believe me. They're
- 27:11Speaker 1: the worst team in football, are min God, They're so bad? Okay,
- 27:25Speaker 1: but I will say we're running out of guineas. Yeah,
- 27:30Speaker 1: I have a I have a couple options here from
- 27:32Speaker 1: my last spect. I'm gonna do you guys want to
- 27:36Speaker 1: add underdog into this equation for this weekend, as in
- 27:41Speaker 1: money line underdog, money line underdog. Yes, I know what
- 27:46Speaker 1: to do it because I think Seattle beats the Chiefs
- 27:50Speaker 1: on side of football. So I agree with you, and
- 27:52Speaker 1: that was going to I went, yeah, Um, I'm a
- 27:57Speaker 1: Chiefs fan. Clearly, my brother plays for the Chiefs. I
- 27:59Speaker 1: thought they would lose this game before they lost the Chargers.
- 28:02Speaker 1: Seattle is a tough place to play. Russell Wilson is
- 28:05Speaker 1: forty two and twelve all time in Seattle for home games. Right.
- 28:09Speaker 1: I know quarterback wins is not a stat, but that's
- 28:11Speaker 1: a trend, right, that seems very important in situation. We're
- 28:14Speaker 1: picking straight up. Um, he's lost one time to an
- 28:18Speaker 1: an FC opponent in Seattle. They don't play obviously very
- 28:21Speaker 1: often in Seattle, think like once a year, So it's
- 28:23Speaker 1: not like that crazy, Um, But that was the Chargers
- 28:25Speaker 1: this year. Typically they lose games in Seattle to like Arizona, Paul,
- 28:30Speaker 1: you know that, well, like Arizona and the Niners, like
- 28:33Speaker 1: division opponents. They don't lose very many games outside their division.
- 28:37Speaker 1: At home, Seattle lost to San Francisco. We know yesterday
- 28:40Speaker 1: it was embarrassing. I was the Niners plus Mone I
- 28:42Speaker 1: was fine with that obviously, Um, But we have a
- 28:46Speaker 1: Seattle team that wants that fifth seed. They want to
- 28:48Speaker 1: play Dallas in the Wild car. Right. They do not
- 28:50Speaker 1: want to have to go to Chicago and play the Bears.
- 28:52Speaker 1: They already lost to the Bears in Chicago once this year.
- 28:55Speaker 1: I think they come out they win this game. They
- 28:58Speaker 1: run the football, they love run the ball, and they're
- 29:00Speaker 1: a team that will stick to the planning against the Chiefs.
- 29:02Speaker 1: They will run the football the entire day. The Chiefs
- 29:04Speaker 1: run defense is really bad. I mean, the crowd, noise, everything,
- 29:07Speaker 1: I just gets under chief skin. I didn't Seattle wins
- 29:09Speaker 1: this game, outright. I so a agree with you on that.
- 29:16Speaker 1: When I was scrolling through, that looks like the exact
- 29:21Speaker 1: situation in which the Seahawks win this game desperate times.
- 29:28Speaker 1: I like, I actually like the Chargers getting an opportunity
- 29:31Speaker 1: to take control in the conference. Um, I agree. I
- 29:39Speaker 1: will tell you this though, looking into weeks seventeen really quick,
- 29:42Speaker 1: that would be very Chargers to beat the Ravens. The
- 29:44Speaker 1: Chiefs lose to the Seahawks and the Chargers go to
- 29:46Speaker 1: Denver and lose a week seventeen, very very Charger like.
- 29:50Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. Yeah, we will see what happens,
- 29:55Speaker 1: won't we There's still a really good bull game this
- 30:00Speaker 1: by the way, we haven't got to you if one
- 30:01Speaker 1: of you two want to take it eventually, what do
- 30:03Speaker 1: you guys think of the Chargers are four and a
- 30:06Speaker 1: half point favorites right now. I think that line is
- 30:09Speaker 1: going to go up. Probably there's a lot of money
- 30:17Speaker 1: on the Chargers so far, you're canna bet that right now?
- 30:20Speaker 1: It is Chad making a bet. Do we have to do?
- 30:22Speaker 1: We have to drop the the sounder here your attention please,
- 30:27Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet allegedly allegedly and making a
- 30:34Speaker 1: bet thinking about it. We're gonna get back to the
- 30:36Speaker 1: podcast in just one second, but first let me tell
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- 31:51Speaker 1: dot com. That's Favorites dot robin hood dot com. Let's
- 31:56Speaker 1: get back to the show, PAULI what are you got?
- 32:00Speaker 1: I don't even know where to go? Tough mm hmm.
- 32:07Speaker 1: There's there's a good call game. I think that's pretty
- 32:12Speaker 1: I like Northwestern, No, but that's later. Um look at
- 32:17Speaker 1: look at Friday at four pm, Paul, Friday at four pm.
- 32:25Speaker 1: That is perdu it. I'm I'm backwards at Toledo at
- 32:29Speaker 1: f I U b y U Western? Oh yeah, yeah,
- 32:35Speaker 1: it's b why you it's about to make your Yeah,
- 32:41Speaker 1: I mean like, um, there might as well be why
- 32:46Speaker 1: you Western, Michigan. I want to say that. Colin, when
- 32:51Speaker 1: I was looking at call it confidence Index's yeah he did.
- 32:55Speaker 1: He has one through thirty nine. You gotta go to
- 32:57Speaker 1: the action website. Colin Wilson does is one through thirty nine.
- 33:01Speaker 1: Confidence picks um and he has them high on on
- 33:05Speaker 1: the confidence b y u. Um, he actually has them
- 33:09Speaker 1: slated as um. I think it's thirty nine. I think
- 33:13Speaker 1: it's most confident pick thirty thirty three, thirty three out
- 33:15Speaker 1: of thirty nine thirty three. Yeah, so mnus twelve just
- 33:21Speaker 1: to win the game. So now our parlay is probably
- 33:25Speaker 1: down to maybe breaking even for the year. If we
- 33:27Speaker 1: hit this one, we'll win thirty cents on this parlay.
- 33:34Speaker 1: Ten or more points of Bowl games have gone, have
- 33:37Speaker 1: won seventy times, there's two thousand and five. Yeah, um
- 33:42Speaker 1: or pretty good. Would you rather have a Bowl? It's
- 33:48Speaker 1: probably no. No fascinating radio. Well, my thing is is,
- 33:56Speaker 1: I just think the Bears are just a better team.
- 33:58Speaker 1: But I know you got to go to San Francisco,
- 33:59Speaker 1: But the San Francisco Chargers just have the Seattle Seahawks number.
- 34:04Speaker 1: They've outscored, They've out gained them over a thousand yards
- 34:08Speaker 1: in the last two games they played them. So to me,
- 34:10Speaker 1: I just think that ends. But how do you feel
- 34:13Speaker 1: about the Bears going to Sanrancis Skill, you're the Bears fan,
- 34:17Speaker 1: I think it's a weird spot. Um, stay away, yeah,
- 34:21Speaker 1: I'd stay away. Three and a half point favorites. I
- 34:24Speaker 1: don't know that like Eddie Jackson is not going to
- 34:26Speaker 1: be playing. I think he is a galvanizing force for
- 34:31Speaker 1: that secondary Uh coming off of winning the conference. Um,
- 34:37Speaker 1: I worry about the letdown spot. What about New Orleans
- 34:41Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh. That's a weird line, don't you think. So? Yeah,
- 34:50Speaker 1: we're gonna be by you. Yeah, we'll goll be by you.
- 34:58Speaker 1: My chance, I'm gonna end this on a winner. Are
- 35:03Speaker 1: you ready? Are you ready? Yes? Yes, you're supposed to
- 35:09Speaker 1: say yes, I'm ready. I don't have a high falsetto voice. Sorry,
- 35:14Speaker 1: come on, you can be You're what are you front dominant?
- 35:18Speaker 1: I am? Yes? Oh yeah, we should show that on air.
- 35:21Speaker 1: Last week you mocked me for saying that I'm that
- 35:24Speaker 1: I'm front dominant, like qualite dominant, and then you went
- 35:26Speaker 1: to the trainer yesterday and he said the exact same
- 35:28Speaker 1: thing about you. So maybe it's the same conversation with
- 35:31Speaker 1: my wife all the time. She thinks I'm stupid, and
- 35:33Speaker 1: then someone else tells her the same as I think
- 35:35Speaker 1: I told her, and then she still thinks I'm stupid,
- 35:37Speaker 1: but gives me a little bit of credit. M I
- 35:44Speaker 1: like your wife, you'd like her? She she puts me
- 35:48Speaker 1: in my place quite often. Get her on the podcast.
- 35:51Speaker 1: I mean, there's thirty lenses. You did made your trainer.
- 35:55Speaker 1: My legs are a little sore. I'm sorry, Uh dad
- 36:00Speaker 1: us over Tampa Bay at home. Guys. Come on, boys,
- 36:08Speaker 1: I looked at this you right on this one. It
- 36:11Speaker 1: just it just worries me because I just don't buy Dallas.
- 36:15Speaker 1: But Tampa is not very good. Also, like it's it's
- 36:19Speaker 1: like their minus three hundred. So we get a little
- 36:22Speaker 1: bit of value here, like they're gonna win this game
- 36:24Speaker 1: by let's put this thing in here. Yeah, we're met
- 36:30Speaker 1: minus seven minus fourteen minus four menus twelve. We need
- 36:36Speaker 1: to win, man, we need to win. That has to happen.
- 36:39Speaker 1: It has to do. You imagine if we would have
- 36:48Speaker 1: gone eight no going into last night with the biggest
- 36:51Speaker 1: favorite on the card gets beat out right, that would
- 36:55Speaker 1: have been so upsetting. It would have been bad. Do
- 37:00Speaker 1: you have a figure? What do they pay short Sea?
- 37:03Speaker 1: Uh no, because some of the website I used to do.
- 37:08Speaker 1: Yet the money lines up yet for a lot of them.
- 37:11Speaker 1: Yeah alright, boys, but we got our nine picks ready
- 37:15Speaker 1: to hear him. We have uh Tennessee on the money
- 37:21Speaker 1: line against Washington. We have Army to beat Houston. We
- 37:26Speaker 1: have Indie Indianapolis Colts to beat the New York Giants.
- 37:29Speaker 1: We have the Los Angeles Chargers to beat the Baltimore Ravens.
- 37:32Speaker 1: We have the New England Patriots to beat the Buffalo Bills.
- 37:35Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams will beat the Arizona Cardinals. Here's
- 37:39Speaker 1: our risky one, Seattle to beat Kansas City. In Seattle.
- 37:44Speaker 1: We have b y U to beat Western Michigan. And
- 37:48Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That
- 37:52Speaker 1: might be the riskiest of our favorite picks. Dallas is
- 37:57Speaker 1: minus three hundred. I'm feeling pretty good about a voice.
- 38:01Speaker 1: I thought we're gonna have a winner this week. We
- 38:05Speaker 1: all should punch it and all win. I love that.
- 38:08Speaker 1: I love that. Thank you for listening to the favorites.
- 38:10Speaker 1: We have shows every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Download our
- 38:13Speaker 1: free free free front Strong app, the Action Network app.
- 38:21Speaker 1: Please rate and review the show on Wednesday. I will
- 38:24Speaker 1: be with Bob Scucci on Friday. Georgina will read your
- 38:29Speaker 1: reviews on the show. If we like them. I might
- 38:32Speaker 1: not because they tend to make fun of me. Paula Duca,
- 38:36Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, thanks for joining me. You guys can listen
- 38:38Speaker 1: to our show on Apple podcast radio dot com, Slash,
- 38:41Speaker 1: the Action Network, or wherever you get your shows. Until
- 38:45Speaker 1: next time,