Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Waiting for Football | MLB & WNBA | 8/25/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Waiting for Football | MLB & WNBA | 8/25/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: You look like a mess.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me?
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: Nice now, hold on, hold on, let me for you.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: But it all get the crown, hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now, what's up bur about? It's towed
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: back with you with toadstool Sports. It is Wednesday, No Tuesday?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: What am I saying? Yeah? Tuesday? I don't know what
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: date it is. Ever August twenty fifth went three and
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: one on the show Yesterdays. I'm happy about that. I've
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: not updated the bann or, which I guess I need
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: to do that right now. Where are we at here?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: One dude, I'm so out of it today because I
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: think this is right. Because stream Yard wasn't letting me
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: go live because of traffic issues. I'm like, what the hell?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Men?
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: I know a lot about traffic issues, By the way,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: in Boston. But yes, I think that record is correct there. Now,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: there you go. One lost three wins yesterday, both unders
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: were good. In baseball, Red Sox and Marlins. That was
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: a one to one game, like really late into the game,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: and then the Red Sox did put up some runs
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: in the ninth inning, and at that point, I mean,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I'm rooting for the Red Sox to win, too, but
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I'm like, Okay, your bullpen's good, that's good enough. Just
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: four to two, let's end it that way. And that's
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: what happened. And we got that one right, and then
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh San Diego went into extra innings. I almost said
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: both games went into extra innings. I don't think so.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I think only Pittsburgh and San Diego did. And that
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: game went twelve innings. Like that game was solo scoring
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: that it was two to two at the end of
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: the first nine, but I'm thinking, oh god, this is
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be one of those bad beats and extra innings
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: with the stupid ghost Runners whatever. No, even with the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: ghost Runners they couldn't score. It wound up being a
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: three to win I think for Pittsburgh, and it took
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: twelve innings for either team to even score once, which
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: was ridiculous, but yeah, I'll take the under. I don't
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: know what happened in the one loss the Reds Chase
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Burns not being able to outpitch wizzen Hunt. I don't
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you about that. It was the
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: wrong play, but I can't. I can't figure it out.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, I'd probably make the same play again.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you. I don't know
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: how that happened. I really don't. And then Golden State,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: we did get a winner in the WNBA Golden State
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: with a win, so that was good outright win. Easy
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: win on that one win and cover. Hopefully people put
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: something on the money line there. All right's again into today.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: I also did my college football preview show yesterday, so
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: hopefully people caught that. I have to update it on
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: the channel. Still gotta do all that and make the
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: thumbnail and whatever. Wasn't great by any means, but at
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: least it'll give you some extra information. I think I
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: got a few things wrong. I totally forgot Tulane was
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: actually the team that won the American last year, of course,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: because they wound up in the stupid playoff and then
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: got bounced immediately, which I completely forgot about because that's
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: how useless.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Putting those additional teams in is all right, let's get
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: into today a bunch of baseball. It's all evening stuff.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: I will have three baseball plays here. Will not have
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: one of the first game here, which is Boston Miami
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox one. As I mentioned, we got the
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: underwright yesterday four to two win for the Red Sox.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: On the surface, it looks like the Red Sox should
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: have the upper hand in this one as well, with
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: debatably their best pitcher on the mound against a Miami
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: pseudo bullpen game here, weird things happen in baseball.
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: Though.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Miami used four relief pitchers yesterday. Red Sox used three,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: but they did use Chapman again. Red Sox bullpen supposed
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: to get I believe it's Whitlock is supposed to come
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: back soon and they need him. Man. Red Sox hurting
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen right now a little bit, although there's
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: still number one in bullpen and they're still doing a
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: decent job out there. Miami is okay at eighth, but
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox do have the better bullpen. Red Sox
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: are eighth offensively at this point. They've been one of
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: the top offensive teams since the All Star Break, which
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: is kind of insane because their offense is not very stacked, really,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: but everybody's just doing their part, and Miami is a
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: ninth in offense, although I think the Red Sox at
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: this point probably are the better offense too. Peyton Totley
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Red Sox in this one. Three
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: point eighty ra one point eight whip. He's been good.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: He's been good on the road two point five to two.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: Roadyra wasn't great in his last outing against Arizona at home,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: but he's generally been good. He has a really nice
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio this month, striking out a lot of guys,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: not walking too many, not really alyging that many hits either.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Before that last game, the Red Sox had won seven
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: starts in a row that he'd made. He has a
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: those numbers look good. The strike up walk ratio is good,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: strike up for nine is good. He's putting up some
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: solid stats. Like I said, and expected era. He's one
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: of the top ten pitchers in baseball. I think or
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: at least he was before that last start. His numbers
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: against Miami don't exist, so he has unfamiliarity against Miami,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: which might be an extra advantage to him, because, as
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: I always say, when these lineups face a pitcher they
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: haven't seen before, a lot of times they struggle to
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: figure him out. So that might be an extra advantage
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: to Totally Tyler. Phillips will be pitching from Miami. I
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: will say that if you're gonna play this game, I
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: would pick Totally must start, but don't pick a starter
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: from Miami because it will be Phillips in the game.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: But they might put an opener in front of him
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: or something like that. They've done that repeatedly. Phillips three
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: point six seven e RA, but his whip isn't very
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: good at one point three seven. He is good at
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: home though two point one to four homye RA last
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: time out he only went two winnings though wasn't really
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: that great in that outing. He's been okay recently though
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: not allowing that many runs whatever, but his overall numbers
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: aren't really that good. I mean, he doesn't allow that
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: many hits. His walk rate is kind of high, though
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really strike guys out, so his strike out
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is ugly. Strake up for nine isn't really
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: that good either. Red Sox, though, haven't really done anything
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: against him, but it's eleven at bats five hitters of
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: face a very small sample, but they only have a
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: one to eighty two average, six point thirty six ohps four,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: zero strikeout walk ratio, and unexpectedly, Eli White has a
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: home runoff and which is the only extra base hit.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe an under is a consideration in this game. Again,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I fully trust Phillips, and the
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: money seems to be indicating towards the over, but I
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: would lean under in this game. The total seven and
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: a half, so oddsmakers kind of telling you they think
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be low scoring sixty percent of tickets on
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: the under, fifty eight percent of the cash on the over, though,
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: and the Red Sox are a heavily public side ninety
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: four percent of the tickets. I mean, they're winning tons
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: of games recently, so public is on them ninety percent
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: of the cash, so they're very public. With less than
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: the money on them, They've already dropped into the minus
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: one sixty range, so there is some real money coming
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: in on Miami. I do think it's kind of a
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: value play, though. Look, I would prefer to have the
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Red Sox pitching over Miami's pitching in this game totally.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Plus the Red Sox bullpen should have the edge over
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: Phillips and Miami's bullpen, so I would slightly lean to
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, But you would have to lay minus
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: one run line on that, and I don't trust that.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: I don't trust the market read on that. I think
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: my preference would be under but I'm avoiding that game.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay at Detroit. Detroit is not doing well at all.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: They've lost six games in a row. You can kind
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: of explain yesterday's loss because it was a return home
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: spot and they were facing an actual, pretty good team
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: in Tampa Bay. You can't really explain all their losses
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: to the Royals though Detroit. This could go one of
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: two ways here, man, they might consider themselves to be
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: kind of done at this point, to be dead, or
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: they might bounce back because they are in one of
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: those spots where when a team returns home from the
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: road and they do bad in that first game, a
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: lot of times they do a lot better in the
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: next game, so you could argue it is one of
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: those bounced back spots for Detroit, and historically that is
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: somewhat the case. But I worry about their mental state
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: right now, with the fact that they're probably not going
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs at this point. Really unbelievable. They
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: couldn't win against the Royals at all. Detroit used two
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: relieve pitchers yesterday. I would argue Detroit is the better
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: bullpen here. Tampa Bay used three. Tampa Bay's are in
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: fourth though in bullpen Detroit fourteenth based on whip but
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Detroit's eer Ray is considerably better, so I don't know.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit might be a slightly better bullpen there.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Rays have the better offense. There's six, Detroit is fourteenth.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Detroit kind of struggling recently. Tampa Bay is not as
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: good on the road though, even though they did win yesterday.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Detroit is a little bit better at home, so the
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: home road splits kind of favor Detroit. As far as
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: how the teams perform, Ian Seymour will be pitching for
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. I would say that there is still a
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: chance they put an opener in front of him, So
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: I would if you're gonna play this game, I'd probably
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: pick Job must start for Detroit, don't pick a starter
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: for Tampa Bay, or just play the whole thing action
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: because both teams could potentially use an opener here, but
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: it's likely gonna be Seymour and Job for like the
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: starter's workload in the game, at least, Seymour has a
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: four point one seventy RA one point one four whip
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: is pretty good though four point seven roady RA though,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: so he's not as good on the road. He's been
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: okay recently. He has a really good strikeout walk ratio
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: this month thirty three to four That is excellent, although
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: his last couple of starts he kind of struggled up
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: because he was allowing home runs for whatever reason. Maybe
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: not a good sign that the last one was against
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto and they hit three home runs off. I mean,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: they're not a good offense. But Seymour's generally been pitching
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: pretty well recently. A lot of his numbers are coming
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, though, so I would just be
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: aware of that. But he's looked pretty good as a
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: starter as well. He's got a low hit rate, pretty
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: low walk rate here, strike out rate is also high,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: So those numbers are all good. Strikeout walk ratio is good,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: strike out per nine is good. His numbers gets Detroit,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: they only have four hitters have faced him. They were
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: combined zero for two, but with three walks and a strikeout.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Not a lot to really dive into there. But I
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: would kind of expect Seymour probably pitches al right here.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Job is pitching for Detroit, Jackson Job. I people were
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: hyping him up after that one good start that he made,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: but I'm not so sure. Man. He's got a four
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: point five RA one point three to six whip isn't
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: really that good. He's been awful at home so far,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: fourteen point seven three ray. He's only made three starts though,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: and he only made one at home and he got
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: pounded by the White Sox. His other two starts were
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: both fairly good though. Did walk too many guys at
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh last time, but he bounced back and helped him
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: to one run. That's not easy to do at Pittsburgh
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: because their offense is really good at home. So Job,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, he looks like kind of a mixed bag here.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: His hit rates mediocres, walker rates, kind of mediocre, strike
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: out rates kind of mediocre. I don't know what to
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: expect out of him here. He has a small sample
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: size that we can look at so far. He's made
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: ten starts last year, which was his biggest sample size
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: that we have, and he wasn't really that good. He
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: put too many guys on base. Tampa Bay only is
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: one guy who's faced him, A Plasios has faced him
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: over one no strikeouts, no walks, So Job does have
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity here, which could be a little bit of an
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: edge to him. I'd probably I don't know. I think
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: I'd still have to lean Tampa here. I think Seymour
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: is the better of the two pitchers in this one.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: Tampa's getting the money, even though it could be a
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: bounced back spot for Detroit based on the scheduling dynamics.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: But they also might just pack it in man because
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: it looks like they're not going to be in the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: playoffs here at this point, eighty percent of tickets, ninety
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on Tampa. They're at about
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty here. I'd probably lean that way, maybe
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: first five only for Tampa, though you might have to
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: pay a little bit more for that, but that's all
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: I got on that. And by the way, I will
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: say Miami against the Red Sox, Miami probably does have
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: more urgency because they're really trying to get a wildcard
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: and they're one of the last teams in the wildcard racers.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have a pretty big lead over the
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: teams below them in the wildcard race, so I will
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: point that out as well. And Detroit technically does have
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: more urgency here because they're not technically eliminated, so and
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is in first place in the Al East.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Still I believe so Colorado at Washington. I mentioned this
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: could be a high scoring series because you have bad
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: pitching here and generally pretty good hitting. Yesterday it was
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: high scoring, although I probably I think I probably leaned
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Washington yesterday because I think it was Cavali in that
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: game yesterday, and Washington did indeed win by a pretty
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: ridiculous score of thirteen to three. Neither goalpen is good.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Though Washington has three relief pitchers, Colorado two. I would
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: not trust either bullpen though Washington number twenty six, Colorado
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: twenty seven. Both offenses are pretty good Washington three, although
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: they've been a little bit worse recently. Colorado number four,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: and this is not a course field. This is in Washington.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Colorado has Mason Adams making his major league debut here.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Interesting he's listed as a relief pitcher. He is a
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: little bit older to be making his major league debut
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: at twenty six. He's not a huge guy, and basically
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: he relies mostly on fooling guys with his offspeed stuff.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: So he doesn't throw that hard of a fastball. I
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: couldn't get like a number on how fast it is,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't throw that hard. But he has like
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: a really good curveball that's his best pitch. And then
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: I guess he has a pretty good slider as well,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: and fools guys with those pitches, and he has like
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: a mediocre change up. Then he made as well, So
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: he has kind of a standard arsenal but a good curveball,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: and he's projected to kind of be a potential late
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: rotation arm. So he's not like this highly touted prospect,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: but that's what you're gonna get out of him potentially.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Here I have his minor league numbers. He was in
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: two different systems, I think, because I think he was
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: originally with the White Sox so He's probably pissed that
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: he's now with Colorado, but in Colorado's Triple A affiliate there,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: which I think is the Albuquerque Isotopes. Makes me think
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: of The Simpsons the Springfield Isotopes and moving them to Albuquerque.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: That was actually a plot line anyway. Adams has decent
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: numbers in Albuquerque, but pretty good actually. But still I
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: don't Yeah, I've just have no idea what to expect
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: out of him here. Like I like these guys that
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: are like more highly touted prospects, and you like know
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: that they have really good stuff Adams. For me, it's like,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I think we got to see what
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: he can do at the league level. Andrew Alvarez is
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: getting the start for Washington, or I presume he's going
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: to start. If you're worried about that, again, you could
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: pick just not pick a starter for Washington here or whatever,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: or go action on this. If you really want to
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: have you worry, they might put an opener in front
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: of Alvarez. It's the new state of baseball. Man, He's
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: been okay, three point sixty r rail those one point
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: three to four whip is not really that good and
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: he's not as good at home four point twenty four
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: homeye Ira, He's been pitching decent recently, not great, but alright.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout walk ratio is not really that good.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: He's walking kind of too many guys here. He's not
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: really a huge strike up pitcher. But he's also not
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: allowing that many runs or hits here. He's allowed two
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: or fewer earn runs in every start in August, so
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: give him credit for that. He's got a pretty low
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is too high.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: His strike up rate is okay, which tells you to
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: strike up. Walk ratio is not going to be that good,
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: which is true. His strike up for nine is all
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: right against Colorado mediocre numbers here. They have fifteen at
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: bats against two sixty seven average, seven twenty two ohps.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: One strikeout three walks is not a good ratio though,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: and they have seven hitters who have faced him. This
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: is a hard game to predict, man, I got pretty
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: much nothing on this. I don't even really have a
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: great opinion to give out on this. The money is
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: coming in pretty strongly towards Colorado ninety three percent of
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: tickets on Washington, fifty nine percent of the cash on Colorado,
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Washington's about minus one fifty. They have dropped a little
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: bit in the market. I don't I don't love it, man.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess you just playing the price there,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I guess, and just basically banking on the unknown pitcher
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: for Colorado. He will have an unfamiliarity edge at the
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: very least. But Alvarez has been pitching okay, so I
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: don't really know if I necessarily want to come in
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: and fade him. The money's also playing the over eight
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: and a half. But I see some arguments maybe for
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: a first five under in this game, because Alvarez has
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: been all right, his numbers against Colorado are all right,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: and then you're gonna get unfamiliarity from Adams here in
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: this one. So first five under I think makes more
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: sense to me. I would not play the full game
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: under me because these bullpens are awful. My opinions on
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: that game are very, very weak, though, very hard game
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: to figure out, Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out? Yes?
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Thank you jewels? Yes, all right, it seems like those
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: jewels translate into like a very small amount of money,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: But I still don't really know how they work Houston
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: at the Yankees. This will be the first game where
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the teams were off yesterday. There are no games today
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: where any team has a rest advantage. I don't believe
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: you either have two teams that both already started their
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: series and played each other yesterday, or you have two
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: teams that were off yesterday. That's the case with Houston
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees here. The Yankees are staying at home
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: and they've won most of their recent games here, so
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: the spot looks fine for them. Houston will be coming
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: in off with some ugly losses to the A's starting
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: a road trip, so I think it's a good bounce
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: back spot for Houston as far as coming up the
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: bad losses at home, and Houston's got to have more
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: urgency here because the Yankees have a pretty big lead
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: in the wildcard race here. Like the Yankees are clearly
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: not gonna miss the playoffs, although I guess you know
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: they ideally would want to win the division. But Houston,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: they're right in the thick of it in the Al
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: West and they're probably gonna need to win the division
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: to get a wildcards or to get into the playoffs.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, the wildcard probably isn't coming from their division,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: so Houston's got to have more urgency here. Bullpen wise,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are very good. They're number two win both
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: ERA and Whip. Houston is not bad though they're thirteenth,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: but Yankees have the better bullpen here. Houston is the
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number ten. Yankees at sixteen tie with
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the Phillies and with the Diamondbacks. Yankees, their offense is
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: probably gonna start hitting well again once they get judged back.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: But I don't know Ethan Peco is getting the start
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: for Houston. I have no idea what you're gonna get
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: out of this guy. He's made one start so far
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: in his career and it didn't go that great, and
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: it was against a bad Anaheim lineup. Yankee are obviously
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: the better offense out of those two teams, even though
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: they've been struggling recently. But it's gonna be a step
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: up from Anaheim to face the Yankees. Peco wasn't really
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: good in that start. He went three and two thirds innings,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: give up three walks, three hits towour and runs four strikeouts.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: He was striking out guys at least, but the wildness
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: was really the big concern with that outing Yankees will
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: be unfamiliar with him. But I talked about Pecko going
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: into that start. His numbers look mediocre in the minors,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Like I don't think there's anything that great about him,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: although I may have to change what I would I've
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: been saying about him if he actually starts pitching well,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really trust him, though the Yankees are going
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: with Will Warren here, who I don't think is that
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: trustworthy either. He's the worst pitcher in the Yankees rotation
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: four point four to three ERA one point four whip
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: is definitely not that good. He's basically the same home
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: and away. His home road splits are not significant. He's
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: not pitching well recently though He's failed to make it
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: five innings in his last couple starts. He's been allowing
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: too many hits, too many walks recently. Strike out rate's
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: been fine, but he's been a little bit out of control.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate on the season that's
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: not really that good. His walk rate is okay. His
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is decent or actually I would say
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: it's good. It's like nine to nine, so strike out
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: walk ratio isn't too bad, but he does still walk
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: too many guys. Strike out for nine is all right,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: so he does have good strikeout stuff. I don't really
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: think I would trust Warren in this game, though he's
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: not in good form right now and the Astros have
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: definitely beat him up. They have thirty six at bats
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: against him, a four forty four average, twelve oh nine
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: ops three to one at strikeout walk ratio. I think
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: I would play the over if I was gonna play
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: this game, even though I know I tend to lean
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: more towards unders when both teams are having are coming
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: off a day of rest, because you have the rest
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: of bullpens, the offense has got a cool off a
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: little bit. But I think the the over would be
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: the way to play this. I don't trust either pitcher here,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: and I guess you could do it like an action
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: play as well, if you're worried about, like Houston putting
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: some opener in front of Peco. I have no idea
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: what they're actually gonna do here. Totals at nine. It's
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: right on that key number of nine, so the oddsmaker's
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: kind of expecting it to be a bit of a
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: high scoring game. I mean, there are some other problems
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: with that, like namely, the Yankees offense really has not
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: been good recently, so they've been playing a lot of
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: low scoring games for the most part. But I don't know,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: this game looks like one where I think runs might
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: be getting scored. Here. Fifty two percent of tickets on
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: the over and fifty five percent of the cash on
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: the under though, so the money is coming in on
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the under slightly, but I don't agree with that. The
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: money is also back in Houston, and that's the strongest
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: market read here. Yankees are very public at eighty three
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets. They've already dropped from a minus
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: one forty seven opener down to like minus one forty
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: So some real money is coming in on Houston. It
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: looks like it's seventy four percent of the cash on Houston.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you wanted to find a way to
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: play Houston here, I don't think I would play them
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: on the side, although you could like take them in
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: the first five or something, and they are kind of
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: in a bounce back spot here. If you're gonna try
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: to play Houston, I would combine my two opinions, and
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: maybe this is the best way of playing it. I
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: would play Houston over their team total. Maybe that's the
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: best way of playing this because Houston beats Warren up,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: so they should be able to get some runs here.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: They're in the bounce back spot. I think they're gonna
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: be runs in the game. Generally, Houston is the better
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: of the two offenses year, although if you do agree
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: with that, you're kind of also sort of agreeing with
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: the Houston side, which I don't really disagree with the
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: Houston side. I will say that, but Houston's team total
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: over makes some sense, and they're an underdogs. You won't
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: really need them to score as many runs here, Like
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: if they get to five, you're gonna win that bet probably,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: which sounds like kind of a lot, but I don't know.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: It is a hitter friendly stadium too, though, So those
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: are my thoughts on that. Next game will be one
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: of my plays. This one feels really ugly, but you
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: know me, I mean, this is something that I do.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take the Kansas City Rules. The hottest team
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: in baseball, the Kansas City Royals in the first five. No,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: I think they lost a game recently, right, I like
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: the Royals in this one, they're playing against Toronto, so
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: we're not playing the Royals against a very good team here.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: Toronto's in a bad spot in my opinion. They're turning
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip where they faced the top
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: two teams in the division, the Rays and the Yankees.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: So those are big series for Toronto to try to play. Spoiler,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they played fairly well. They split the road trip. I
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: believe they went three and three on the road trip.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: They beat the Rays and lost to the Yankees. They
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: did also play the Yankees and the Red Sox prior
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: to that too, So this series, I don't really see
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: them getting up for this series. Right, So the return
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: home a lot of times, it's a distraction. You gotta
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: get back to home life. Whatever. Do you think they're
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: really gonna get up for the Royals after playing all
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: these teams within their division that are probably all gonna
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs playoffs, Yeah, probably not. I think that's
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for them. Now. The Royals, Yeah, they're hot.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: They've won a bunch of games in a row. They've
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: won seven games in a row. I think is what
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: this is? Eight is at eight it might be eight.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: They are coming off a sweep of Detroit, so you
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: could make the argument that Kansas City's gonna let down spot.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: I do see that argument, because that was a big sweep.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: They basically spoiled Detroit's season. So normally I'd be looking
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: to go against the Royals here too, but I think
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: the spot is worse for the Jays. Royals are at
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: least starting a road trip with momentum, and the Royals
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: they're kind of just they're playing like loose, I would say,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like the Royals have nothing
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: to lose at this point, so although neither team really
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: does here, but yeah, I think the Royals are in
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: a better spot here, But I also like to starting
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: pitching here better as far as the bullpens, and by
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: the way, these two teams were off yesterday as well,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: I believe as far as the bullpens, Yeah, that's part
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: of the reason why I'm going first five here. We
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: all know the Royals have a terrible bullpen, so I'm
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: gonna exclude them in Toronto's bullpen is better. The rank sixteenth,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: I think they might be better than that, especially because
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: their closer is good. The Royals are ranked dead last,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: so I think they're twenty ninth. I think the A's
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: are worse, but the Royals are a terrible bullpen. Toronto
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: is a really bad offense. They're twenty eighth and the
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Royals are nineteenth, So the Royals might be able to
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: do something a little bit offensively in this game. We'll
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: need him to do something to get this one to
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: come home. We're gonna back Seth Lugo here again, even
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: though I know he's not really that good four point
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: seven to one ERA, one point three to eight whip.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: He's not that good on the road, so I know,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: I'm like, why why are we backing him here? Five
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: point sixty three? Roadyra Well, it's about the spot. Like
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: Toronto's in a bad spot, Lugo has been. He's given
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: up a lot of runs recently, but some of it
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I think is a little bit misleading.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: And the Royals have actually won his last three starts,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: so they've been giving him run support. Yes, he's allowed
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: too many runs, but his command has been good over
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: those three starts. He has twelve strikeouts in one walk
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: over the three starts, so it's not like he's not
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: in command here. He's been a little bit too hit
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: a ball there's no question about that. And he's been yeah,
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: like two hittable on the season. I don't like that.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is highs walk rates not really that good.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: His strike up rate isn't really that good either, so
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys don't like him. He's got a
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: pretty low strike out walk ratio. It's gone down over
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: the years. He is kind of old now. His strike
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: up for nine is also not really good at this point.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: But I think this is a fine matchup for him.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: I think the spot sets up better for the Royals,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: and he's facing one of the worst lineups in baseball
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Toronto here, and Lugo has been good against them in
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: the past. Forty one at bats up against him in
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: his career one hundred and ninety five or excuse one,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: ninety five average allowed. That's really low. Six point fifteen ops.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: It's thirteen to six strikeout walk racio. So the walks
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: are a little bit concerning, but other than that, these
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty good here. So I will back Lugo here,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna fade Max Scherzer, even though he looks
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: like he's pitching a a little bit better. Surezer's pretty
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: untrustworthy man. I mean, I doubt that he's gonna continue
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: trying to pitch next year. He's got a seven point
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: four ERA this year, one point five whip. He's been
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: really bad at home eight point three to three homey Ray.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: He was pitching fairly well for a few starts in
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: a row, but not going deep into those starts, and
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: then he got bombed last time up by Tampa Bay,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: so that might not be a good assignment. His strike
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: out rates come way down from what it once was.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: He's had some command these years recently, he's not really
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a good form right now. He's got a high hit rate,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: high walk rate. Strike out rate is way down from
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: what he used to do. Like I said, it's by
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: far his worst strikeout walk ratio he's ever had, not
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: even close. It's awful, below two. His strikeout per nine
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: is the lowest that he's ever posted as well. I mean,
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: he's forty two years old, so he's still going out
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: there trying to do it. Probably it's for the love
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: of the game, man. Like the Kevin cost In movie
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: actually a decent movie, where Costner is the aging pitcher
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: for the Detroit Tigers, UH trying to complete his career
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: in a meaningful way or whatever. That's that's schures are
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: at this point. Schures are What was I gonna say?
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: I forget I don't even remember what else I was
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: gonna say, But yeah, his strike up for nine is
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: really low. And of course the clincher for me is
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: that he doesn't do well against the Royals. Surprising. I
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: thought these numbers would actually be better, but a lot
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: of it is Salvador Perez kills them. But overall this
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: lineup has done well against them. They have sixty two
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: at bats, although yes, thirty five of them are Perez
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: three twenty three batting average, oney eleven ops nine to
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: one strike out walk ratio. Yeah, I say we do it.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I think the spot lines up for it. I think
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: we are actually backing the better of the two bitchers here,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. By backing Lougo, the money seems
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: to be kind of disagreeing with me, and luked like
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: it was agreeing with me earlier. Sixty two percent of
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: the tickets, sixty eight percent of the cash on Toronto.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: I do not agree with that, though Toronto's in the
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty something range here. First five, Obviously we're
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: excluding the bad Kansas City bullpen here. But yeah, I
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: think it's the way to go here. I don't think
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: I have a whole lot else to say about it,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: but yeah, you'll you can't really get them at plus
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: money here. I don't think you can get them at
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: a very small minus money price, like minus one oh
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: four was what I found out there. And the money
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: is back in the over in that game over eight
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: and a half. I don't disagree with that, even though
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Toronto's offense is really bad and it seems difficult to
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: actually play an over in a Toronto game, But the
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: pitching really isn't good in that game, Like the only
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: good pitching that you really have involved in that game
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: is Toronto's bullpen, So there are more indicators for an
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: over than an under. So I would not disagree with
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the over in that game either. All Right, Milwaukee and
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: the Mets. These two teams were also off yesterday, the
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Mets returning home from a quick road trap, but they
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: only went to the White Sox, so it's not one
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: of those long road trip returns. And I don't see
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: the Mets overlooking the Brewers here. The Mets are just
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: playing out the stretch Brewers have a lot of well,
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they have a lot of padding,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: but yeah, they're doing pretty well here. They have a
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: five and a half game lead right now in their division,
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: so the Brewers might be a little bit on cruise
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: control here. Plus, Brewers just had a big series over
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: the weekend against the Braves, and they finished in the
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Little League World Series Classic playing against the Braves in
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: Pennsylvania and lost that game on Sunday night on ESPN,
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: So they're coming off a big game there. Yes, they're
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip here, but I don't know if
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: that's going to be enough. And they're already kind of
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: on the road because it was that weird neutral site
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: game there. So it is kind of a short travel
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: leg to go from the middle of Pennsylvania just to
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: New York here. But still, I think the spot sets
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: up a little bit better for the Mets, believe it
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: or not, than it does form a walk even though
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: the Mets are returning from Chicago quick road trip. Bullpen wise,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are good in this series. The Milwaukee's number five,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: the Mets are number seven. Milwaukee is the better bullpen.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: I think Milwaukee at this point is probably the third
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: best bullpen in baseball, behind the Yankees and the Red Sox,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: or the Red Sox and the Yankees, whichever one you
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: want to rank ahead of the other. Milwaukee's ranked seventh
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: in offense. They're definitely better offensively than the Mets. The
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: Mets are twenty fifth. Mets have been a little bit
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: better recently. Kyle Harrison is getting the start from Milwaukee,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: though he's had a really good season two point eight
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: to foury RA, one point one to one WHIP. However,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: he's been surprisingly pretty bad on the road five point
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: oh one Roady Ray. His road numbers have become way worse.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: His last three road starts have all been ugly. One
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: was at San Diego. He got bombed in that game
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: at San Diego. That's not a good sign, although the
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: fielding really kind of hurt him. There a lot of
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: unner and runs there, which that got corrected later. I
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: believe the scoring on whatever that was, but whatever it was,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: he still didn't pitch well in that game. And the
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: two roads starts prior to that Saint Louis, they're not
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: a good offense either. Also Saint Louis, San Diego pitcher
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: friendly park, so not a good sign. Harrison did really
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: badly in those two. He did poorly against Arizona too,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: but at least that's more of a hitter friendly ballpark there.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, his last three road starts have been bad,
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: so he's definitely having some issues right now on the road.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: His last two home starts have both been good though,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: including his last home start against Seattle, which was he
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: pitched in that twenty two to nothing game. And his
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is still really good. This month, He's
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: striking out a ton of guys. He's got a low
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: hit rate, low walk rate, high strike up rate. On
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: the season, all those numbers are good, really good strike
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: up for nine so it has been a breakout season
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: for him. Really good strike up for nine and strike
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, I mean, both the best that he's
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: ever posted in his career. However, three roads starts in
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: a row for him haven't been good, believe it or not.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Mets are not good. Although they
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: have five hitters will face him fourteen at bats, but
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: they have a three fifty seven average against him. Seven
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: eighty six ops isn't that high, but it's still not great.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Three to zero strikeout walk ratio. I could see it
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: going both ways because you don't really want to weigh
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: the sample size too heavily. But when I first looked
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: at this game, I was thinking, like maybe an under
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: in this game with these two starting pitchers. But Harrison,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: his road numbers recently are bad enough and his matchup
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: numbers are bad enough that I am staying away from that.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Zach Thornton is pitching for the Mets. Advanced analytics guys
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: don't like him because he's not a strikeout guy, but
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty good. Three point four ERA, one point
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: one to five whip is good, which is more of
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: what I look at, like how many guys are you
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: putting on base. He's been a little bit worse at home,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: but not by much. His home road splits are pretty insignificant.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: He is walking too many guys recently, or I guess
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: I would say he's not striking out that many, so
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: his strike out walk ratio isn't really that good. He's
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: not allowing a lot of runs though he's a lot
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: more than three or on runs only once all season,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: which was his first start of his career against a
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Washington lineup that was hitting well back then. That was
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: back in May, and they called him back up in June.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: He made one start which was a lot better, and
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: then he's been in the rotation for good since, like July,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: pretty much mid July. He's got a pretty low hit
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: rate here. His walk grade is pretty low on the season.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: But yes, his strike out rate is low. He doesn't
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, so he pitches to contact, which is
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: why the advanced analytics guys don't like him. But his
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: walk rde's low enough, even though it's gone up recently,
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: it is low enough on the season, and his strike
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: up walk ratio is not horrible, and a strike up
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: for nine is indeed low. Thornton, what are we talking
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: about here? They're going against two, dude. I never remember Milwaukee, right.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: He did face Milwaukee once this year, and I remember
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: because that was that game where I leaned to the
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Mets in the first five. It was at Milwaukee. It
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: was a winner, but I didn't give it out as
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: a play. I remember, being kind of anger. I didn't
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: give it out as a play. Thornton was good in
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: that one. Milwaukee has nineteen at bats against them. They
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: have no extra base hits, one fifty eight average, three
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: fifty eight ops, two to one strike out walk ratio.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Thornton has good numbers against them. The question
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: is does he actually match up well against Milwaukee or
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: was it more the unfamiliarity when Milwaukee couldn't figure him
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: out and now that Milwaukee's seen him once, they're gonna
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: do better against him this time. That would be my
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: worry with Thornton here. I don't know which is gonna
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: be the case here man. And then as far as
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: like these pitchers being young and possibly throwing too many innings,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think either one has reached that threshold yet
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: because Harrison was hurt for a while. Thornton hasn't really
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: made that many starts. So let me see. I mean,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: maybe the under is still the right way to look
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: at this game. The total is low at seven and
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: a half, the money is heavily backing the under sixty
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: three percent of the tickets on the over ninety percent
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the under. Both teams are off yesterday,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: which can cool off the bats, but the bullpens are
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: both good. Generally, I like both starters, and maybe you
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: shouldn't weigh a like a small sample size that heavily
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: for Harrison. Yeah, I mean under might make some sense.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: I think I would also lean Mets in the first five,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: though Milwaukee looks like a very public side. I think
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: the spot's a little bit better for the Mets, and
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: Thornton does have the better matchup numbers. I would only
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: go first five. Even though I like the Mets bullpen.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're better than Milwaukee's though, so I
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: would only focus on the first five. If I was
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: gonna do that, and Milwaukee is very public ninety percent
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: of the tickets of the ninety three percent of the cash,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: but they're around minus one sixty. You could take the
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Mets probably on the run line in the first five,
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: like plus a half run and get a decent number
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: on that maybe I would say, or I guess if
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: it's not that good of a number, you could go
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: money line with them in the first five. That would
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: probably be my lean. I would lean Mets first five.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: I think that probably is my best lean in that
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: game's Mets first five. I also do lean under in
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: that game, still though, sticking with my first instinct, Dodgers
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: in Atlanta on TBS, this will be a pretty big matchup,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: so it gets a TV spot here. I looked at
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: this matchup and I was thinking, Yeah, the Dodgers clearly
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: have the better starting pitcher here. But you dig into
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers a little bit and maybe not, well,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: maybe it's closer. Atlanta is returning home, so I don't
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: really love that, you know, I like to fade teams
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: returning over from the road. I was like, oh, yes,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: we get Atlanta returning home from a road trip, and
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: I think we have the better starter with the Dodgers.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: So I was really starting to lean to the Dodgers,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: and maybe I still do and sticking with my first
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: instinct again. But yeah, Atlanta just went to Minnesota. Then
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: they played a weird makeup game against the White Sox,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: so they stopped off in Chicago. Then they were in
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee for two games, and then they played Milwaukee in
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: the Sunday Night Baseball game and got a win to
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: finally get a win in that series in the Little
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: League World Classic. So it could be a little bit
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: of a letdown after all that too. However, Atlanta's not
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: going to overlook the Dodgers. That's the thing, Like, you know,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: it's it's not a team that you're just gonna look
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: past like, yeah, you might be distracted coming back home,
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: and yeah, I know it doesn't look like it's a
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: return home, but remember that's because that was that was
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: the literally World Series game, which was a neutral game.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I hate out with just as versus there, so it
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: makes it look like a home game it was not.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: They should change how they display that, but whatever, it
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: is a return home spot for Atlanta here, so it's
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: still a negative spot. Although I don't really think they're
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: gonna overlook the Dodgers. Dodgers are hot right now. Dodgers
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: have won six games in a row. They just swept
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the Pirates, who might be pretty much dead here. Dodgers
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip with momentum though. Yeah, they're having
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: a fly cross country. But it's easier to go east
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: than it is to go west because it's basically just
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: like you're playing an earlier game when your biological clock
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: like an afternoon game, which teams do all the time.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: So that's easier. So the spot definitely sets up better
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: for the Dodgers. Yere I would say bullpen wise, Atlanta
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen. They are ranked third, although
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: I think they're the fourth best bullpen in my opinion here,
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: although I would just be arranging it by era by
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: saying that, but I think that is what I think.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Though Dodgers are in okay bullpen. They're ranked to where
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: are they at eleventh? Other ERA is below four. Again,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: at least Dodgers on the number two ranked offense right now.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's thirteenth. So Atlanta's kind of fallen off offensively, but
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers have been a good offense. So though I
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: think a Kuna was hurt for a while, but he
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: is back right now for Atlanta. As I was talking
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: about when it started pitching though, Tyler Glasno is making
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: his return for the Dodgers, And you know, I like
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: this when a veteran pitcher is coming off the d
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: L and he's been on the DL for a long time.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: It's just like last year man Glass now and Snell
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: they're both injured, injured. Maybe the Dodgers are kind of
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: making that up. Then they come back and they make
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: some starts and then they're ready to pitch in the postseason.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: It's ridiculous, man, this is gonna be a pitching It's
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: gonna be so hard to beat. But I like these
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: veterans that haven't pitched for a while in the Major's returning,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Whereas a lot of guys don't like that because it's like, well,
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: they're not used to it. But I kind of disagree, like, yeah,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: they've had this long layoff, but you know they've worked
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: hard to get back into a Major League rotation. When
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: they're veterans, they're used to doing stuff like this, Like
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: Glasnow's been injured repeatedly, so he's done this before and
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: make comebacks like this before, so he's definitely used to it.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: He's probably pumped to get back out there. The team
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: is probably pumped to have him back. So I could
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: see that kind of rallying the team a little bit.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: And Glasnow was pitching well before he got injured. Two
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: point seven to two ERA point eighty three whip was
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: really good. He was also really good on the road
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: one point six to four roadier IRA with a ridiculous
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: one to eleven batting average on the road allowed on
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: the road, although he didn't make that many starts though
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: he went down in early May and hasn't pitched on
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: the Major since then. His numbers were just go across
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: the board though. I mean, he's been doing this throughout
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: his career. Low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: All those numbers look good. Strike up for nine, good,
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio, good, you know, all of that. Whatever.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: We don't really have to dive into it that much.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: We do want to see what his numbers look like
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. Those are Pittsburgh. Hang on, Yeah, so he
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: has sixty five at bats against Atlanta. I did look
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: at this earlier. He's pretty much dominated them. They have
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: a one twenty three average of four p fifty ops
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: against them at twenty six to eight strike out walk ratio,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: which is not too bad either. But yeah, he's really
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: really held this lineup down. So glasnow should match up
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: well here, so I think he should pitch well. Bryce Elder,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: on the other side, is clearly the lesser of the
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: two pitchers here, although his numbers aren't that bad three
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: point nine to two ERA, one point two to three Whipman.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: He is better at home three point four to two home.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: He ra good in his last start against Arizona. Hear
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: at home really not good in the previous start at
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: home against the Mets, where we had a winner on
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: the show with the Mets in that game, I believe
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I might have been first five only probably it was Elder, though.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: I mean that was the only start where he's allowed
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: more than three ear in runs since the beginning of July, though,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: and since that kind of bad start at the beginning
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: of July against Pittsburgh, he'd allow two or fewer earned
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: runs in every start besides that one against the Mets,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: So I'm not about to say that he's really in
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: bad form right now. Though he's not really striking guys out,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: which is he just doesn't really strike guys out. He's
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: got a reasonably low hit rate here. He allows too
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: many home runs though, even though he's not really that
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: fly ball heavy. His walk rate's okay. His strike out
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty low though, so strike out walk ratio
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: is not really that good. Strek up for nine not
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: really that good. Elder against the Dodgers. You would think
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: that he doesn't do well against them because they're any
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: elite lineup, but he actually does d well against them.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: In eighty seven at bats two O seven average allowed
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: six forty five oh ps twenty to ten. Strike out
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not good, though the under might actually
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: be the best way to look at this game of
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: the money is all like indicating on the over, but
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: you got two teams that were both off, so that
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: could limit the offenses a little bit. These offenses are
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: seen as good offenses, and I think good pitching overcomes
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: good hitting. Both bullpen's are rested and they're not bad.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: I know the offenses are capable, but both starters look
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: like they match up well here in one is actually
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: a good starter glass though, so I think the under
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: makes the most sense to me and this one. The
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: totals at eight and a half, seventy three percent of
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, though seventy nine percent of the
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. I don't agree with that market read,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: and I also lean Dodgers, and the money doesn't agree
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: with me on that either. Seventy eight percent. I would
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: say Dodgers first five though, because I don't think their
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen is good enough against Atlanta's Dodgers first five, though,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: I think is a way to look at this game,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: because I think the spot sets up a lot better
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: for them, and I think Glasnow is just the better
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: pitcher over Elder, and I don't even think that's debatable.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Seventy eight percent of the tickets are on the Dodgers
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: seventy five percent of the cash though, so the money's
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: not agreeing with it. They're about a minus one fifty
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: money line down for minus was sixty three. If you're
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: gonna play them in the first five, you're probably gonna
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: have to lay a run line with it Dodgers minus
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: a half run. But I would agree with doing that.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: I think I prefer the under in this game. But yeah,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: I would also say Dodgers minus a half run in
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: the first five would be the other way I would
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: look at it, all right, Texas and the White Sox,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: I was correct about this game yesterday. White Sox bullpen
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: game did not hold up yesterday. Kumar Rocker did alright,
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox got killed in the game. Really,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: so I was correct about the Rangers lean yesterday. Texas
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: with an eleven to two win. Texas, I think is
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit more desperate than the White Sox because
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: the White Sox they're a top their division, but they
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: also have wildcard potential here. Texas is probably gonna have
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: to win their division to get into the playoffs, and
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: they're right there in the thick of their divisional race.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: So Texas is probably gonna be the more urgent team here,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: which they were yesterday. Texas also has the better starting
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the mound today. By the way, Texas used
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: two relief pitchers yes today, their bullpen hasn't really been
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: that good this year. White Sox used three because they
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: did kind of go with the bullpen game yesterday, and
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: so I don't know if I really love how either
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: bullpen sets up here, though the White Sox have been
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: the better one. Their ranked fifteenth Texas is ranked nineteenth Texas.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: Just the guys that they have in the bullpen, I
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: would think that Texas would be the better bullpen, but
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: the numbers just have not indicated that this year. White
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: Sox will definitely the better offensive team. Their twelfth Texas
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: is twenty first. Texas is a little bit better on
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: the road than they are at home. Though Texas will
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: be going with Jacob de Gram in this one, so
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: his injury, I guess was not an issue. He made
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: a start after that. He's got a three point seven
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: to seven ERA one point one to three whip, so
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously he's not what he used to be,
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: but he is still having a really good season here. However,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: he's significantly worse on the road. He makes a real
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: good use of that Texas pitcher friendly stadium, but on
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: the road he's not very good. Five point h one
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Roady Iram. He was really good last time out after
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: it looked like he had the injury issue after that
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: shortened start against the Angels. He came back and he
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: blew away Washington last time out, but that wasn't home
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: six shutout innings of one hit ball with ten strikeouts,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: one walks. He was excellent in that start, and two
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: of his last three starts have been good. But he
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: is kind of like alternating good and bad starts here,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: So if he's gonna alternate, that means this is gonna
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: be a bad start here. He does have a pretty
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: low hit rate here, it doesn't really walk many guys.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is good, so his numbers are
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: all really good across the board, except the home runs
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: have kind of hurt him a little bit, although even
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: actually the home run number isn't even really that bad either,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, there really isn't a whole lot
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: to dislike about how he's pitched this year, although his
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: road numbers are yeah, I mean, maybe he just has
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: a small road sample size or something. Of those road
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: numbers are ridiculously bad. It's not really that small of
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: a sample size. I don't know, but yeah, his strikeout
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is good. His strike up for nine is
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: still pretty good. So really there's not a ton to dislike,
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: except he's not that good against the White Sox and
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: he's not good on the road. Fifty five at bats here,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: two seventy three average, eight thirty one ops, eighteen to
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: four strike out walk ratio is good, but these numbers
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: are not really that good against the White Sox. They've
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: had the upper hand against him. White Sox are going
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: with Anthony Ka, who continues to pitch better than I
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: think that he should three point nine to sixty RA,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: but his one point three to three whip is not
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: very good. He's been fairly good at home though, three
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: point two homey RA. Still pitching pretty well. Recently, he's
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: got a good seventeen to four strike out walk ratio
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: this month. He's allowed three or four earned runs in
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: every start for the last like two months, so he
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: is not allowing a lot of runs here. His hit
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, his walk rate is mediocre. I would
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: say he doesn't really strike a bunch of guys out,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: so his strike out walk ratio is not gonna be
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: that good. So again again the advanced analytics guys will
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: be like, Yep, nope, we don't like this guy. He
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: pitches to contact, and I don't like him either that much.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: I mean his whip, which is what I look at.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I think it's not that good. His strike out walk
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: ratio is not really good. His strake up for nine
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: is not great, so I still don't think he's that good.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: De Grom is obviously the better pitcher here, but de
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: Grom has the lesser matchup numbers. Well, actually maybe he
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: doesn't k actually doesn't do that well against Texas. My
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: mistake seventeen at bats. I'm trying to remember everything I
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: went through earlier before I did the show, because I
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: did look at everything. Rangers have seven hitters who have
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: faced him, and they hit two ninety four off him
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: with an eight thirty nine OPS three to two strike
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. So I think maybe the over is
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: in consideration here in this game. Both pitchers might give
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: up something here. I know yesterday's game went over as well,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: and it was pretty much all Texas. Doing it. Money's
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: backing the under in this one, but I don't really
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: agree with that. The total is really low. It's seven
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: and a half. So the oddsmakers are respecting both starting
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: pitchers here, but maybe I don't respect them as much.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't like the matchup numbers here. I
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: don't think k is actually any good and de Gram's
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: not good on the road, so I see more indicators
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: swarts an over here, but I don't love overs when
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: the totals that low. When the oddsbriggers are telling you
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: they think it's gonna be a lower scoring game, although
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: you know you're playing a better number. If you do
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: like the over seventy three percent of tickets on the under,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on the unders, the
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: money's back in the under. I don't agree with that.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I like the over here, and I would also slightly
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: lean to Texas. Texas does look like the money agrees
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: with them, sixty five percent of tickets eighty percent of
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: the cash on Texas. They're the more urgent team with
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher here. Maybe you go first five
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: with it, just because I don't really know if I
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: trust their bullpen. It's right around a pick them price,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: So if you're gonna play Texas in the first five,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: you're gonna have to pay like probably minus one thirty
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: for that, because everybody, like the odds makers, definitely know
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: that that's where the biggest Texas advantage is. De Grom
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: is definitely better than k overall, and his matchup numbers
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: are actually better. Even those matchup numbers aren't really that
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: good here, but I worry about those, and I worry
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: about him on the road, so I think I would
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: prefer the over to anything else than that one. Speaking
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: of which, I believe I have a play in these
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: next two games, and that's it for today for me.
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: But we do have an over in this next game
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: with Baltimore and Saint Louis, even though I know these
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: teams are off yesterday, so that could cool off the hitting.
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: You get rested bullpens, but neither bullpen is really that good,
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: and the starting pitching in this game it's bad, especially
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: in the home road splits. So I think we're gonna
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: get some runs here. Even though it is a pitcher
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: friendly park, it is a situation with teams rested here,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: which usually I need to an under in a situation
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: like that. Saint Louis, though, look at what they've been
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: doing recently though their last five games have all gone
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: over the total with totals of nine nineteen, thirteen, fifteen
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: to ten. They're playing a lot of high scoring games here,
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: and yes, they're returning over from a long road trip here,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: which I guess is a little bit concerned. Oh and
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: by the way, uh that was how many games? Did
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: I say?
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: That was.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Seven? So the last seven games have gone over, But
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: also nine of the last ten have gone over, and
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: those two games against the Cubs that went over hit
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: twelve and fifteen, and Saint Louis is contributing themselves and
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: also allowing a lot of runs, So they're playing a
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: lot of high scoring games right now. Yes, they're returning
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: over from a long road trip, which I do think
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: can stifle the hitting a little bit and cause the
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: hitting to be distracted. So I don't love that. And
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis's record is very evil right now at sixty
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: six and sixty six, so I don't love that. But yeah,
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: they're in a bad spot. Saint Louis is returning on
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: from a long road trip, so I was considering, well,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: maybe the Orioles would be worth a look here, but
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: I immediately looked at this and I was like, nah,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: I don't want to pack Chris Bassett here either, So
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: I landed on the over in this one. I think
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: it's good enough for a play, even though, yes, Saint
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Louis might have some distracted hitting here. But to me,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: I just think the pitching is not going to be
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: very good here in this one. And I don't like
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: the bullpen that much. Like I said, Saint Louis is
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: ranked twenty second in bullpen, almost a four and a
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: half RA. That's not good. Baltimore is better at twelve,
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: but the ERA is above four. But we're also fading
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching, of course, which I think could cascade
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: into the bullpens. I know the offenses aren't very good.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Baltimore twentieth, they did trade guys at the trade deadline,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis twenty fourth, and a lot of times bad
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: pitching will be able to have the upper handing it's
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: bad hitting, But in this case, I don't think so.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: I think you're looking at some bad, bad pitching here.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Chris Bassett is back up for Baltimore. He's old now
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: man he hasn't been good the last couple of seasons.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: I've been pointing out how bad he is the last
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: couple of seasons, even though a lot of guys liked
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: him last year because he wasn't allowing that many runs.
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: But I was looking at his whip, and I'm like,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: he's not good, dude, And all he does is throw fastballs,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: like he changes the fastball and the way that it
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: looks and whatever. He just throws a bunch of different
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: different types of fastballs. And if you figure out like
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: what he's doing, like major league hiders could definitely hit that.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: He's got a five point eight RA one point six
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: to two whip is very bad. He's been very bad
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: on the road seven point two eight road ERA. Since
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: they brought him back up from the miners, he's been okay.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: He did all right against Tampa Bay walk too many
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: guys though, and then he was actually somewhat good against
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. But he's still been too hittable here. So
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: I don't really put that much weight into these starts.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: He didn't go that deep into these outings either. Both
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: of those game one of those games went over the
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: total Tampa did. The game against the Yankees landed on eight,
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: so it wasn't exactly low scoring. He's got a high
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: hit rate here, his walk rate's not very good, his
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: strike up rate is pretty low. His strake out walk
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: ratio is really ugly below two, worse than he's posted
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: in his career. Yeah, that's not good. His strike out
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: per nine has gone way down. Although I know it's
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: a small sample size, but he looks like he's just
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: kind of running out of steam towards the end of
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: his career here, man, I don't like it. And his
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: numbers against Saint Louis, even though they're not a good offense,
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: they've been able to hit him, even though they only
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: have six hitters who have faced him twenty six at
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: bats is a small sample, but they have a three
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: to zero eight at average and nine ten ops against
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: him three to one strike out walk ratio, So Saint
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: Louis has been able to hit him. And on the
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: other side, I don't like Matthew Libertore either. For Saint Louis,
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: he's been bad five point zero four ERA, one point
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: four to four whip. He's a little bit worse at
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: home five point one six Homie Ira and a three
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: oh one opponent of batting average at home, that is
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: not good. He's been pretty good in his last two starts,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: I'll give him that, with fifteen strikeouts in one walk
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs and the Reds, but both of those
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: were on the road, and for whatever reason, he's better
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: on the road. His last home start he got lit
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: up by Colorado, which is not good, and he got
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: lit up by the Cubs in his home start prior
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: to that. So even though he does look good right
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: now and has a really good twenty five to four
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: strike out walk razio this month, so he's in decent form,
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: his team is still losing most of his recent games.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: They've lost five of his last six, and I just
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: don't I don't trust him. I don't trust him at home.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's a good pitcher. I think he's
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: in line for maybe a little bit of a setback
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: in this one.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate, his walk rate's not
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: very good. He loves a lot of home runs. His
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: strike up rate is fine, it's one per inning, which
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. Rest of these numbers is not that
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: good though. The walks are too high, so the strike
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: up walk ratio is not that good. Strike up for
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: nine is the highest that he's posted, but that hasn't
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: been enough, and his numbers against the Orioles are also
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: not good, as you could probably gas. Although it's only
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: twelve at bats, five hitters have faced him, so again
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: you don't want to over rate this, but they've been
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: able to hit him. They have a three thirty three
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: average one fifty one ops, again only in twelve at
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: bats though three to one strike up walk ratio. But
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: half of the guys that have faced him have have
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: had hits off him. So yeah, I think it's bad
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: pitching all around in this game, really, So that's what
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with here. We'll go with the offenses
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: to put up some numbers here. Money agrees with me
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: on this. Sixty percent of tickets on the over, ninety
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash and the over. You might
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: be able to find an eight on this at a
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: better number. I'll look and I'll update it in the
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: description if I find a better number, because eight and
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: eight and a half there's almost no difference. So you
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: might be able to find an eight and a half
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: at a cheaper price than this, I should say, because
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: there's almost no difference between eight and eight and a
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: half in Major League base while the odd numbers are
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: key because they break all the ties. So if you
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: find an eight and a half at a better number
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: than this, obviously I would play that. I would probably
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: do that instead of laying like an eight minus one twenty.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: You know, it all depends on what the price looks like.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: But we'll see. I only found over eight and a
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: half at minus one twenty, but the number might be
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit better right now, so I'll update that accordingly. JC,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Yes, sir, omg hi
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: to everybody. Next game up is my last play. So
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: this is the best bet segment. I guess. Cleveland and Anaheim,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: you probably know what I'm looking at here because you
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: know I like both these pictures. You know these offenses
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: both suck. So what am I doing here? Yeah, you
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: know what I'm doing. We're gonna go under in this game.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Under seven and a half. We get the key number here,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: we get under that hook. Although you do have to
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: pay a little bit of juice for this minus one
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: twenty one. I mean, if you wanted to play a seven,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I guess you could. First five is worth considering here
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: because really I don't love Anaheim's bullpen, but these bullpens,
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I think have been okay enough, and these offenses are
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: so weak that I think we could do this and
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: just extend it to the full game. And also Williams
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: for Cleveland, he's been going deep into some of his outings,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: so he might be able to allow the bullpen to
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: rest a little bit longer here, So I think I'm
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: fine with doing it this way. And I didn't see
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: anything better than a three and a half in the
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: first five, which I really don't love, so I say
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: we just go full game with this. These teams did
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: play yesterday, though Cleveland did use their better relievers yesterday,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: but their bullpen has had some staggered usage here, so
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: they're not really overworked here. Anaheim used three relief pitchers
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: as well, which I believe Cleveland won again yesterday. So Cleveland,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: I told you they have an easy schedule to finish August,
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: although they're September schedule. I think it's a little bit
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: more difficult again. Anaheim yet lost four to two yesterday.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: It was a return home spot as well, so Anaheim
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: might be in a bounced back spot here. As I
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: point out, when a team loses in that return home spot,
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of times they do bounce back and play
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: better in the next game. But I don't know how
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: much motivation Anaheim is going to have in Cleveland is
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: the team that needs to play with urgency because they're
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: trying to make a playoffs here, so Cleveland will have
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: more motivation. And Cleveland does have the more established starter
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: here in the starter that had probably rather back in
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: this game, plus the better bullpen, so I wouldn't really
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: want to fade Cleveland here. Cleveland's number seventeen in bullpen,
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's number twenty one. But they're eras yeah, I mean
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: they're not that bad, so whatever, I think we could
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: roll with them in this game. And again part of
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: it is though, because the offenses are terrible. In fact,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: these are the two worst offenses in baseball here. They're
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: tied for last place right now. Yeah, and Anaheim is
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: particularly not good at home offensively, And like I said,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: they have to deal with Gavin Williams here, who has
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: been really really good with his strikeout stuff this year.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point seven to two ERA one
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: point zero nine whip all that's good he's not quite
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: as good on the road four point two to five
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: roadyra but his opponent batting average is good on the
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: road at two A waight. He just is a little
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: bit wilder on the road. But he's not that bad
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: on the road. Like I said, he's striking out a
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: ton of guys recently. Had one bad start in there
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: recently against San Diego. Bounced back alright with a pretty
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: good start against San Francisco last time out, which I
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: think that might have been. Was that the game against
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: the tug Boat? No, maybe not it was. I think
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: that was a different game, actually, But I don't know Williams. Overall,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: he's got a low hit rate here. It's hard to hit.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: His only problems are he does walk a few too
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: many guys and his home run rate is kind of high,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: especially given that he's not that heavy of a fly
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. So I think it's just because he throws
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: so hard, though when people connect with him, they hit
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: it out of the yard. Maybe a little bit concerning there,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man, because this is not a
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: particularly hitter friendly ballpark here, and he has a really
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. He has one of the highest strikeout
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: rates in baseball, so that's good. So the advanced analytics
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: guys will love that. His strikeout walk ratio is almost
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: double what it has been in his past seasons. So
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: he's really increased his strikeout rate this year and he's
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: having his best season overall, like by far. His strike
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: up for nine is way up, his strikeout walk ratio
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: way up. Like I said, it all looks pretty good
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: here man, and he has decent numbers against Anaheim. They
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: have seven hitters with face of twenty three at bats
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: two seventeen average is really low seven forty two ohps.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: I know it's not that low. It's still below that
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty threshold. It's maybe being skewed because Trout
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: has a home run and it's a small sample size.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, they do have a couple extra base hits
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: and a six to three strikeout walk ratio in there.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: But I like Williams to be able to handle this
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: line up here, and I like wall at your rain
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: yeah on the other side too, even though he does
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: have issues with walks. But he's had a good season.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: He's been really difficult to actually score off of. He's
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: got a two point eight ERA one point two to
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: four whip I know indicates that his ERA probably should
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: be higher than it is. He's still young, though, man,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: and like I said, I identified like right away. I
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: thought he was a good pitcher looking at what his
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: underlying numbers looked like. He's got to fix the walks.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: But if he does that, he's going to be really excellent.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: I think he's been really good at home, so he's
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: in the better of his home roads. But it's two
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: point twenty seven home ERA with a one seventy six
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average. That's really good. His walk rate has
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: been really his one concern. He is still walking too
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: many guys here, but he's not allowing many runs. Although
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: he's had a couple of weaker starts in here recently,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: but those both came on the road. His last two
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: of them starts, he didn't allow any runs. His last
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: four home starts, he's only allowed two runs across, uh,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: what is that twenty four innings. So yeah, he's been very,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: very hard to beat at home. He's got a low
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: hit rate, so he's very difficult to hit. He does
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: walk too many guys, so his walk rate is definitely
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: not good, and his strike out rate is okay, but
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: yeah it does mean to strike out walk ratio is
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: not good. He walks too many guys, but he's so
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: hard to hit that a lot of guys. Is still
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: really tough for guys to reach base against him, and
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: his strike up for nine is alright. He's also facing
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: an extremely weak Cleveland lineup. Mean, he did face them
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: once earlier this year and they didn't do well. Fourteen
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: at bats is what they currently have against him to
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: fourteen average six forty three oh ps two, zero strikeout
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Seven of their current hitters have faced them.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: I think Urania could do it again, even though I
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: know he doesn't have the unfamiliarity against the now, so
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland will know more what to expect here. But there's
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: such a weak offense man that I think the runs
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: are gonna be at a minimum in this game. So
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: under is my play in this game. It's because of
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: the combination of the way the pitching sets up and
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: the hitting here. Uh there it is. The money is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: back in the for in this game, though I don't
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: really understand why fifty three percent of tickets eighty eight
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over the total is
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: really low. It's seven to seven and a half, so
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: Osmaker's expecting it to be a lower scoring game. Money
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: looks like it doesn't agree with me, but whatever money
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: is back in Cleveland, I do slightly agree with that.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I think Cleveland has more urgency and
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: Williams is the more established pitcher and the one that
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: has better command over his stuff. But yourrain is good man,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: He's going to be good. I'm pretty sure. And he
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: I mean he already is uh eighty one percent of tickets,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on Cleveland, especially at home.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: He's really good. Cleveland's about minus one forty. I agree
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland, but I think the under is the better
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: play there, and it is good enough to be on
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: my card, and that is my entire card for the day.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back the way the timing works out.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: We're in about an hour here. I got five games left,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: like I usually have. I'm gonna talk about the rest
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: of these games. I'll talk about WNBA. I don't have
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: a WNBA play today. I will be right back at YEP. Inside,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We're on oh and seven
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days. After tonight it was
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start off
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: like this, Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: not had a good season.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: With wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: Bruins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins. March eight?
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is?
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: I die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: To the Slumperies, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: should do at this point, other than potentially end it
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: all all right, Cubs and Diamondbacks here. The Cubs won
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday, I think seven and nothing. So I
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: do like teams to bounce back after they get shut
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: out at home, like Arizona did yesterday. So I think
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: Arizona could be in a bounce back. Plus, Arizona is
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: the more urgent team here as they're fighting for a
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: wildcard spot. Here, Cubs technically also are, but the Cubs
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: have a big lead in the wildcard race. I think,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: so Arizona needs this game more and they again should
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: bounce back. I think after yesterday's bad performance, so Arizona
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: might be worth considering on the side here. I'm looking
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: more at the total in this game, although I don't
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: have a play on this game. Arizona used three relief
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: pitchers yes today. Both bullpens in this matchup are decent.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: The Cubs used to Arizona's ranked ninth year, although they
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: do still have an above four ERA. Out of the bullpen,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: Cubs are number ten, but they have the better ERA,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: but they're both capable bullpens. Here Cubs with the number
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: one offense right now. They've been hitting really well recently.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Arizona has been hitting better since the All Star Break.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: They're ranked sixteenth, tied with the Yankees and the Phillies.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: But in this game, I think the pitching might out
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: do the hitting in this one. Clay Holmes is pitching
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs. He's had a good season overall. He
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: did break his leg and then want up on a
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: different team by the time he came back, so he's
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: missed some time. He's got a two point four to
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: ninety IRAM one point one to one whip though, so
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: those are good numbers. He's been a little bit worse
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: on the road two point nine to one Roady i RA.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: He's made three starts with the Cubs so far. He
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: was shaky in his first one against Kansas City, settled
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: down and had a couple of good ones against Saint
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: Louis and the White Sox, both at home, though. But
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: he's not striking anybody out, and that's kind of the
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: issue with him. The advanced analytics guys are not gonna
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: love this because that's his issue. Like he just doesn't
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: have strikeout stuff over the course of the season. He
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: does have a low hit rate, his walk rate is
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: a bit too high. His strike out rate is not great,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: so that's kind of what you get out of him.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: Straight out walk ratio is not really that good. Strike
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: up for nine also isn't really that good. He did
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: put up some better numbers strike out wise over some
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: of his seasons in his career, So I don't know, man,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: Maybe the strikeout stuff will come back at some point,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: but he's not allowed many runs here, and he does
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against the Diamondbacks. They have third seven
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: at bats against him. They have one extra base hit,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: which is a double from Newt bar who they picked
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: up at the trade deadline from He's a He's a
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: candy bar man with peanuts in it. They picked him
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: up from Saint Louis at the around the trade deadline.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: Two sixteen average allowed five point thirty six ops eight
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: to four. Strikeout walk ratio not good, but the rest
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: of these numbers are pretty good. So Holmes has had
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: the upper hand against this Arizona lineup. Brandon Fott is
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: on the other side here. He's been really good since
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: being called back up from the Miners man three point
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: three to ninety ray on the season now, and that
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: includes when he was pitching like shit before they send
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: him to the Miners one point one to four. Whip
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: Fott has turned a season around in a big way.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: He's not really much different home in away. His e
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: ray is worse at home, but his opponent batting average
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: is better at home. He kind of struggled last time
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: out against the Red Sox, but they still won that
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: game because that was one of those rare games where
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox and bullpen blew the game. Holy was
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: just kind of mediocre in the game, not bad, but
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: the bullpend surprisingly blew it and the Red Sox wound
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: up losing an extra innings a. Fot was not really
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: that good in that game, and the Red Sox had
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: the lead early in that game. Fot has been really
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: good otherwise, though. His team has only lost one game
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: since they called them back up from the miners, and
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: he allowed no runs in that start against the Dodgers
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: and they lost that one an extra innings. He's allowed
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in every start except that
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: most recent one against the Red Sox. Does that mean
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: he's trending in the wrong direction. I don't really think so,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: because he also had eight strikeouts and no walks there,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: so he's been striking a decent amount of guys out
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: and he's not walking guys anymore. So his numbers do
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: look pretty good. It looks like he's in command still,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: and his numbers against the Cubs, believe it or not,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: are pretty good. In eighty five at bats, these are
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: really good numbers. One sixty five average, five point thirty
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: seven ohps allowed, seventeen to six strikeout walk ratio. That's
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: not great, but the rest of these numbers are good.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: So I think you got fought in good form here.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: You got good matchup numbers for both sides here. Both
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: guys have had decent seasons overall, I'm leaning under in
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: this one. The totals at eight or eight and a half,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: so it's in nowhere land there no man's land. Eighty
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: the over, so the money seems to be kind of
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: backing the over. But I like the under as you
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: can see, and I don't think either bullpen will kill
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: you either in this one, So yeah, I think full
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: game under is the best way to play this. The
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: money is back in the Cubs, and I don't really
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: agree with that. Seventy percent of tickets eighty four percent
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Cubs at about a pick
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: em price, I would lean to Arizona again because they
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: have more urgency. Fot has strung together more good starts
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: in a row than Holmes has, so I think Fought
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: has kind of established himself a little bit more as
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: far as the current form is concerned. His matchup numbers,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know. His matchup numbers maybe are a little
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: bit better as well in a certain way. I don't know,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: but I think it's the urgency plus Arizona bouncing back
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: from the horrible game yesterday. You could go first five
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: inning with it, because I'm not really sure that Arizona
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: really has a bullpen advantage here. They probably don't, So
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: Arizona first five I think might be worth a lookal
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: that you might have to pay a favorite price for that,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: but I think that might be a look in that
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: game as well, though I prefer the under. But first
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: five Arizona I think is one way to look at
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: it as well. Minnesota at the A's I was correct
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: about Minnesota in the first five yesterday, and they also
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: won the full game. The A's were returning on from
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: a road trip and they took the last two against Houston,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: so I thought it was a bad spot for the A's,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot plus returning on from a road trip.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: I did not like the A's. Plus Minnesota, I guess,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: is still trying to make the playoffs here, though I
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna happen. But Minnesota has more motivation
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: here for that reason. Now, this is a spot where
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: the A's did lose the first game back home, and
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of times teams do bounce back from that,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: but in this case, Minnesota is going to be the
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: team with more motivation, like I said, and they probably
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: have the better starting pitcher going in this one, at
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: least the more established one. Minnesota used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: But you know, I hate both these bullpens. The A's
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: used three, but these are bad bullpens. Minnesota is twenty
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: eight the A's or twenty ninth. The A's are legitimately
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: the worst bullpen and Minnesota might be the third worst.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: So these are bad bullpens. These teams both have been
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: capable offensively. Minnesota eleventh, the A's fifteenth, and we know
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: we're in the A's stadium, which is very, very home
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: run conducive. It's very hit or friendly. Taj Bradley is
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: pitching from Minnesota here. He's had a pretty decent season
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: three point ninety RA, one point two eight whip, although
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: he's not as good on the road four point twenty
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: six roady RA. He's pitching well. I mean, he had
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: a decent start last time out against the Braves. He
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: was kind of struggling a little bit the prior couple starts.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: His walk number has been way too high. Recently, He's
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: walked three or more guys in all but one start
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: going all the way back to mid July. So his
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: command is not very good right now. He does have
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate. He's hard to hit, but he
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: walks way too many guys. His strikeout rate is good,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: so his problem is command. If he could figure out
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: these command issues, he would be a good pitcher. He
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: is very fly ball heavy, so that's kind of a
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: concern in this stadium. He allows a decent amount of
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: home runs, so that might not play well in the stadium.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: That combined with his wildness and the fact that he's
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: not good on the road, or not as good at least.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Strike out walk ratio is not great because the walks
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: are just way too high, even though he's striking out
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys, so he does have good strikeout stuff.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the A's not good. Although they only
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: four hitters will faced him fifteen at BASS it's a
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: small sample, but they do have a four hundred average
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: against him at a nine to eleven ops nine to eleven.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Three to two strikeout walk ratio. I
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: don't think I want to trust Bradley here in this one.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: Gage Jump is pitching for the A's. I don't think
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: I want to trust him either, even though I think
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: Jump has pretty good stuff. He's still a young guy,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: but he's had some real issues pitching in this stadium.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: Four point eight three ERA overall this year one point
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: five to one whip is really bad, but he's been
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: particularly bad at home six point h two home ERA.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: This stadium is just not good man for pitchers. He's
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: not pitching well recently, as a really ugly twenty to
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: fifteen strike out walk ratio this month. None of this
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: is good. The strike out rate is fine, but he's
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: been extremely wild over his last several starts. That's not
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: good at all. He's been a little bit too hittable
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: on the season to His hit rate is too high.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely too high. His strike out
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: rate is good, so he does have good strikeout stuff,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: and that's why I was backing him early in the season.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: We did get some wins backing him, so I jumped
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: off of the jump train at the right time. His
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio is not very good. His strake
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: up for nine is good, but he's just way too wild.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: He walks too many guys man, and his home run
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: rate is I guess not that he's not a huge
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher, but he still really struggled in this stadium.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is unfamiliar with him, so Minnesota will have to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: figure him out on the fly But I don't know
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: if that's gonna help him enough here. I think I
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: would probably lean towards the over here if the money
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: is not agreeing with me on this one either. Though
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: the totals around ten. You might find a nine and
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: a half somewhere, but there's not much of a difference
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: between nine and a half and ten. You're not crossing
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: any key number there. Sixty two percent of tickets on
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: the over, eighty seven percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: Some money kind of backing the under. I think that's
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: just because generally these pictures aren't that bad. But I
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: don't like it, man, I think the over makes more
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: sense here. The home road splits, both lineup against both
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: sturdy pitchers, the bullpens are both trash, so it would
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: be a full game over. Of course, Minnesota is getting
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: some of the money eighty seven percent of tickets they're
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: very public, though ninety percent of the cash they're around
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: minus one forty something here. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: I think I would slightly lean towards the A's and
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: the first I think I would actually back jump over Bradley,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: just because he has the unfamiliarity at least, and it
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: could be a potential bounce back for the A's here
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: at least. And you're probably paying a little bit too
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: much of a price for Minnesota because everybody knows that
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: they need to win. So that's how I look at that.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: But I think the over is like by far my
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: strongest opinion in that game Philadelphia at Seattle. I was
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: right about Seattle bouncing back again yesterday. Seattle, after both
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: of the really embarrassing blowout losses recently, they bounced back
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: with a win in both cases. They did it yesterday
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: as well. Good win for Seattle yesterday. That was against
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler, right. I think there's something a little bit
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: off about Wheeler right now. But Seattle has more motivation here,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: I thinkcause Philly is well. I mean, both teams are
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: fighting to make the playoffs. Philly, I think, is a
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: little bit more secure in their playoff spot. Seattle is
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: kind of gonna need to win their division if they
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: have any hope of making the playoffs. So Seattle, I think,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: does have more urgency here. On the surface here, you
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: think Seattle does have the better starter here in this game,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: but I don't actually think so. Believe it or not.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: Seattle used three relief pitchers yesterday. I don't really love
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: either of these bullpens at this point. Philly also used three.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: Philly is ranked eighteenth out of the bullpen Seattle twentieth.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: They both have not great in metrics here, so they're
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: both kind of mediocre bullpens here. Seattle's been very bad offensively.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: They're twenty seventh. They moved up a little bit again recently,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: but they've had some real issues offensively over the course
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: of the season. Though Raleigh hit three home runs last night.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: He was the he's the only Seattle player to ever
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: hit three home runs in one game in that stadium,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: and people were like, Oh, Seattle sucks if they don't
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: have a guy that's done that before. I'm like, it's
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: a really pitcher friendly part. Did you want to guess
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: how many opponents have done that against them in the stadium?
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: The answer is one, So like, I don't know how
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: you can make fun of it, Like, that's not a
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: reason to make fun of Seattle because none of their
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: hitters have hit had hit three home runs in one
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: game in that stadium. Only one opponent it had ever
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: done it in the history of the stadium. So it's
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: just really really a rarity in a stadium like this,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: it's not a home run stadium. That hitter that did
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: that was Victor Martinez, by the way, who was probably
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: on Cleveland when he did it. I would have to
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: look at maybe it was with the Red Sox, but
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: if it was, I don't remember it Anyway, what was
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: I saying? Oh yeah, hitting yees Seattle, not really that great.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: Phillies have been better recently. There's sixteenth right now type
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: of the Yankees and the Diamondbacks, but the Phillies are
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: not as good of an offensive team on the road.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: This is a pitcher friendly park here. Aaron Nola is
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: going to get the start for Philly. Not a good
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: season from him, five point one two ERA, one point
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: four to two whip. However, just like last year, trying
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: to come back from injury, and he's pitching way better
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: at the end of the season. Just like last year,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: He's been quite good recently. He's had like several good
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: starts in a row here this month. He has a
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: thirty to seven strike out walk ratio, and he's allowed
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in his last three out
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: striking out at least eight in all three of those.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: He's pitching pretty well right now. The Nola hate maybe
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: needs to subside because he's pitching better right now. His
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: hit rate is still bad on the course of the season.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: His home run rate is very bad on the course
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: of the season, but he's he's doing way better right now.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: Man and the home runs are less of a He
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: is still giving up home runs, but the home runs
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: are less of a concern in this stadium. Does have
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: kind of a high walk rate here. Strikeout rate is
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: actually good, so he does still have his strikeout stuff,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: and his strike up for nine and strike out walk
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: razi are both not bad, so he does kind of
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: still have his stuff here. Man, he might be coming
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: around again and maybe kind of regaining some of his
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: form here. He's also been pretty good against Seattle, although
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: they only have forty two at bats against him, but
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: most of them are Roeblists who has twenty two at
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: bats against him. They have five hitters who have faced him,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: but he's dominated them. One ninety average, four to twenty
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: four oh ps, seventeen to one strikeout walk ratio. Those
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: are really good numbers for Nola. He'll be going up.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: It's George Kirby on the other side here. Kirby, I
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: think he's mediocre man four point one ADRA, but his
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: whip is really not that good one point three to six.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: He is definitely better at home three point four home
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: ra so he make he takes advantage of this home stadium. Here,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: he's in the way worse form out of these two pitches.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: His last two starts are both bad, although they were
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: both on the road against teams that can hit Houston
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee. But he's got a ten to eight strikeout
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: walk ratio this month. That's not good. He's not really
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: striking guys out right now, he's walking too many. He's
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: been too hittable on top of that. Yeah, like three
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: of his last five starts have been bad, although granted
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: all of those bad starts are on the road. But
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: he's got a high hit rate here. His walk rate
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: is fine. His strike out rate is pretty low though,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: so yeah, I don't know. He's got a decent strike
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: out walk racier because he doesn't really walk anybody. But
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: he's way too hittable and he is kind of seeing
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: too many walks recently. Strike up for nine is the
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: lowest that it's been throughout his career this year, so
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: that's not great. His numbers he gets Philly are good, though,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: in thirty nine at bats one to twenty eight average
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: three eighty one ops, thirteen to one strikeout wog ratio.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: So I would lean to the under in this game. Still,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: both pitchers do match up all right. Kirby's in the
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: better of his home road splits. The total is low
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: at seven and a half. It's low for a reason.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: Money seems to agree with that one fifty nine percent
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: of tickets fifty five percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: So the money seems to be indicating on the under.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: I think that is the better way to play this
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: game is to play the under. Both bullpens might be
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: all right enough to leave in because if you go
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: first five, three and a half is probably gonna be
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: the number you're looking at there. But yeah, Nola might
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: be kind of a sneaky way to look because he's
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: pitching better now and his numbers still don't look good,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: but he's in way better for him right now. And
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: if you want to take into account which pitcher is
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: in the better form, that's definitely Nola. So I would
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: lean towards Philly here in this game as well. And
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: the money seems to agree sixty three percent of tickets
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the cash on Philly, So yeah,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: I would lean that way as well. The money seems
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: to agree with that. You'll be getting probably around of
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: Pickham price there. You could look Philly first five, because
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know if either bullpen is really that trustworthy.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: I think you could make the argument Seattle's bullpen is
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: the better one. I mean, based on who they have
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen, they should be the better one. I
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: would say so Philly first five might be a way
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: to look on them. You might have to pay a
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: favorite price for that, but those would be the ways
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: I would attack that game. Probably the under is the
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: best way. Pittsburgh got san Diego on ESPN Unlimited. We
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: got the underwright in the game yesterday. Pittsburgh won in
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: a dramatic finish in the twelfth inning with a Nick
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: Gonzalez twelfth inning RBI. I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen much,
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: and they use a lot of guys yesterday because it
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: was a long, extra inning game, so both bullpen's are
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: tax here. Pittsburgh used six guys. San Diego also used six,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: so basically everybody came into the game yesterday, So I
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: would avoid both bullpens in this game. San Diego's number
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: six in bullpenal. I think they're probably the I would
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: s between them and the Braves, right all right, I'll
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: say San Diego's the fifth best bullpen right now then,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: although that would again be just arranging it by e Ray.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's not that good. They're twenty third, although they're not awful,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: and we did back them yesterday in that underplay there.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a good offense, they're number five, but they're
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: not as good on the road, and this is a
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park. San Diego has been better since the
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: All Star break. There's still twenty third overall. Paul Skiings
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: has not been shut down, so he is getting the
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: start here. Apparently three point nine to five Eray very
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: unskeens like numbers here. Even those numbers aren't even that bad.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: They're not what you expect from him. One point one
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: to four whip. He's not as good on the road
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: to a four point four road Ray, but this is
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park. He's struggling right now though. Man,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: his starts have not really been that good. Reasonly, he's
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: not going deep into these outings, like he's only really
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: had one good start in his last five, which was
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: at Miami. But similarly to that game, this is another
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: road game in a pitcher friendly park. So he did
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: do well in that other environment in Miami that was
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: similar to this, but his walk rate's been too high recently.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: There's something going on with him, man like his velocity
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: is not really quite there. He does still have a
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: low hit rate on the season. His walk rate's not
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: too bad on the season. His strike out rate is
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: still really high on the season, so those numbers are
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: still good. The strike out walk ratio is still good,
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: but not as good as what he usually does. Streke
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: up for nine is still right in line with what
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: you usually get out of him, so his strike out
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: stuff is still there. He is generally good against San Diego.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: They have twenty four at bats against some one twenty
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: five average, four forty two oh ps eight to two
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. I lean towards Skiens. Still pitching pretty
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: well here, but there are definitely some question marks there.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: Michael King is pitching for San Diego and vanced analytics
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: guys don't like him because he doesn't have strikeout stuff,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: but his numbers are pretty good and they've been good
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: consistently throughout his career. Three point three eighty one point
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: one seven whip this year. He's pretty good at home
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: three point two one homey ray. He's been pretty good recently.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: start going back quite a way. He is going back
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: into May. He's allowed three or few or yet, and
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: all but one start since the beginning of July. So
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: he's doing well here. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: he's hard to hit. His walk rate is a little
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: bit high, his strike up rate is kind of down.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: It's not really that good. So his strakeout walk ratio
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: is not that good. So the advanced analytics guys will
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: key on that and say that he's not that good.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: But I still think he's not that bad. Although his
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: strike up for nine is way down this year, so
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: he did have a better strike up rate throughout most
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: of his career, which that is a little bit of
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: a concern. But he is still pitching effectively here anyway,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: and he's got decent numbers against Pittsburgh and forty at
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: bats two fifty average, seven eighteen ops, twelve to four
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: strike up walk ratio. So I do think this is
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: an under lean in this game. I'm not gonna actually
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: want to do it, because they're definitely some concerns with
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: Skiens right now. King, I mean, the advanced analytics guys
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: don't like him. I kind of like him. The oddsmakers
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: are pretty much telling you that it's gonna be a
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: low scoring game by lining the total at seven and
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: a half. The money is coming in on the under
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: as well, so if you're gonna play the under, you're
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: gonna have to get seven and a half under with juice.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: Basically here seventy six percent of tickets, ninety percent of
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. So money is back in
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: the under and the money is back in Pittsburgh fifty
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: nine percent of tickets, fifty four percent of the cash.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: On San Diego. They're about a minus one twenty favorite.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: But san Diego, the thing is, everybody knows they need
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: to win. Like San Diego is still in the wildcard
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: race here, Pittsburgh is basically done for the season. But
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: it looks like the professional money wants the back Skiens here,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: and it's like, well, when are you gonna get Skiens
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: as an underdog? It's not that often, And if Skeens
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: is any anything close to what he typically is or
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: what he could be, he should be able to outpitch
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: King here. So I wouldn't really disagree. I would say
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: Pitt's first five because you know, yeah, Pittsburgh first five,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: Like I don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen really at all. So
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh first five, I think is the way I would
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: play the side in this one. But I would play
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: the under in this game if I was gonna play it. However,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: like I said, the bull I forgot. The bullpens are
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: very very unrested here after yesterday's long game, So I
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: think the only way you could really attack the under
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: is to limit it to the first five. But then
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be looking at a three and a half
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: or maybe a three, So that's a little dangerous. I
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: don't love that, but yeah, I think that is probably
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: the best way to play this game. That was the
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: first five under. But if you think your starting pitchers
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: can get you kind of deeper into the game, I
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: don't know. Maybe the full game isn't off the table,
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: but I don't like the usage of the bullpens there.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati and San Francisco is the last game on the
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: slate here. Doesn't look like good pitching in this game.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: San Francisco won the game five nothing yesterday. I don't
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: know how in a return home spot against Chase Burns,
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: and Burns wasn't great. Cincinnati couldn't do anything against wizen Hunt.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, what the hell was that? I honestly have
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: no idea what happened in that game.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: I guess I could look at the box score real quick.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Devers did hit a home run and that was kind
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: of it there. I don't know. Burns was still good
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: with his command numbers, just he got hit around in
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: that game. I don't know what the hell that was. Anyway,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: I don't like either bullpen here. Cincinnati used three guys
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen in that game. San Francisco used
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: a bunch. They used five normally. San Francisco is the
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: better of these two bullpens. They ranked twenty fourth, Cincinnati
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: twenty fifth, but with their ERA almost a half run higher.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: But San Francisco's usage was more yesterday. So I would
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: avoid both bullpens here in this one. As far as
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: the hitting, neither team is really very good. San Francisco
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: twenty second, Cincinnati twenty sixth. Not good stuff there, and
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: it is a pitcher friendly park. However, these pitchers are
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: not good. Brady Singer is pitching for the Reds. He
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: has not been great. Four point seven to two ERA,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: one point four to two WHIP. He's not good on
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: the road, so for whatever reason, even though his home
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: stadium is hit or friendly in Cincinnati, he's way worse
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: on the road. Five point seventy five rody array with
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: a three h five opponent batting average. That's really bad.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: He's been pitching okay recently, but mostly at home. He's
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: had a lot of home starts recently. His recent road
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: starts haven't been too bad either though, so he is
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: pitching a little bit better right now. He does have
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: a high hit rate on the season, though he allows
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: a lot of home runs. His walk rates not really
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: that good. His strikeout rate is low, so none of
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: those numbers are good. Strikeout walk ratio is not great.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: Straight out per nine is one of the lowest that
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: he's posted, so that's not great either. Numbers against San
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: Francisco or not particularly good. They only have five hitters
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: who have faced him, though, and a lot of it
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: bats from Devers, which is really the majority of them.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: Devers has hit him well twenty one at bats two
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: eighty six average eight forty two ops four to one
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio, So Singer not good on the road,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: doesn't really match up that well against San Francisco. I
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: would say, if you're gonna play this game, I would
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: pick Singer must start, but don't pick a starter for
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: San Francisco because they have Adrian Houser listed as a starter.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: But they've definitely put an opener in front of him
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: multiple times, so they might do that again. I think
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: Howser will be in this game, and he's not that good,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: but they might put an opener in front of him.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: Howser as a four point eighty RRA this year, one
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: point three to one whip is not that good. A
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: lot of these numbers are coming out of the bullpen.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: He has been better at home three point seventy five
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: Homie RA. He's allowed no runs in his last couple
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: of starts here, so he's actually pitching fairly well recently.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: But I don't know if that's number his last appearances.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure any of them were actual starts. His
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: hit rate is right at one per inning, which isn't
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: really that great. His walk rate's okay. His strike up
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: rate is very low though, so he doesn't really strike
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: guys out. He doesn't put a ton of guys on base, really,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: but it strike up walk ratio isn't very good. Strike
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: up for nine not very good. I don't think he's
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: that trustworthy of pitcher. However, I was gonna say I
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: thought he was good against the Reds. He isn't, though.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: Eighty six at bats two seventy nine average, seven to
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: eighty ops not great, fourteen to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: I think I would play the over in this one
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: if I was gonna play it. I don't love necessarily
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: playing overs in San Francisco, and the money doesn't agree
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: with it. Seventy four percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: sixty six percent of the cash on the over totals
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: at eight, so it's a somewhat low total here more
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: picture from the environment, but Singer is not good on
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: the road. Neither pitcher has good matchup numbers. However, both
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers are in okay current form, and Houser is better
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: at home at least, so I don't know do with
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: that information what you want, but I would still lean
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: over in this game if I was gonna do anything
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: with it, which I won't. San Francisco is a favorite
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: and around minus one ten. Neither team has anything to
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: play for, though, which is another reason why I kind
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: of like like the over here it's just kind of like,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: you know, when teams have nothing to play for it.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know. To me, it almost sort of becomes
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: more like of a scrimmage, right, So I don't know, man,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: although if focus is not really there, it might affect
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: the hitting negatively. I don't know. I'm better at handicapping
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: totals in other sports where like in basketball, football, whatever,
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: both teams don't give a shit about the game. It
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: usually means the deffense is not going to be intense,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: which usually means the over. But in baseball it might
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: be a little bit different. Even though I do play totals,
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: like my totals are basically matchup dependent. Sixty tickets around
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, eighty eight percent of the cash at Cincinnati.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: The money is back in Cincinnati. I I don't know
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: about that, man. I mean, Singer has been better recently.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: He is the more I guess established starter. But I
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: don't have a good read on the side at all here. Uh,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: my only reading on that game is the over all. Right,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: and then let's see WNBA. We have three games here.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: The first game is very ugly Chicago at Connecticut. In
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: the first game of the night, Connecticut is losing a
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: bunch of games. What else is They played Chicago in
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: Chicago not too long ago and lost by six, and
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: I think we missed the cover in that game, if
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: I remember correctly, by like a half point, So I'm
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: pissed about that if that was the case. Connecticut's returning
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: home from the West Coast here, although they were only
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: out there since Thursday. They played two games out there
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: and lost them both to Vegas into a pretty bad
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: LA team. LA was kind of in a zig zag
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: spot those Connecticut. They actually beat LA at home the
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: two games prior to that. Now Connecticut's gonna have to
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: readjust the time zone here though it's easier to do
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: that going east, but I still don't like it. It's
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: still a return home spot could be a negative spot here.
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: They got Golden State in Indiana coming up next Golden
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: State tomorrow, and then Indiana, Dallas, Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington. Those
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: are all bigger opponents than Chicago is, so Connecticut might
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: not have full focus here on Chicago. So I don't
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: really love Connecticut here. Chicago's coming off getting blown out
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: by Indiana, and now they're going on the road coming
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: in from Chicago. Of course, they do have New York
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: next in a few days, which is a big CBS
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: game over the weekend. They might look ahead to that.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: But I think the spot sets up a little bit
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: better for the Sky because they had that kind of
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: embarrassing loss to Indiana there, which was the game where
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: Ennis cant or whatever was in the stands taunting and
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: the Sky kind of got into a fight with them.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: I was just making fun of it. I'm like, dude,
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: if the Sky had Canter on their team right now
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: and actual NBA player, like, they'd obviously just be instantly
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: like one of the better teams in the league just
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: by adding him to their lineup. Like this is also stupid,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: but anyway, I would probably lean Chicago in this game slightly.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good opinion on this. The money
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with me on this. You gotta lay
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: six and a half with them now, though, Does that
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: mean Grinder is not playing here? I don't know, man,
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: But sixty four percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: the Castle in Chicago, the money is coming in in Chicago.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: I think nobody's gonna want to do that because the
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: record is so bad. The public never wants to lay
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: points like this with a bad team, but I think
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: it might be the way to look at this game. Here,
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: it looks like Grinder is out.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: Well.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: Actually, Grinder is supposed to come back in this game,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if that's gonna be the case,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: and Diggins has been out for the Sky for a while,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: I think so. I don't think that is really gonna
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: indicate much. But Grinder is questionable, so I don't know.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: The fact that this line went up a couple of
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: points kind of tells me Grinder is probably not playing here.
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: But whatever. I think I'll lean to Chicago anyway in
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: that one, but there's no way I'm gonna make that
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: a play. Not a strong opinion, I don't really have
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: many strong I think the last game in this slate
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: is probably the best opinion I have, and it's really
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: just a market based read. Dallas is playing Portland. Dallas
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: is definitely the better team. They're probably gonna be a
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: playoff team, although they're dealing with some injuries at this point.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: They're coming out of an easy win over Seattle. They're
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: staying at home here. They don't really have any big
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: games around this They might show up for against Portland.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, the last time they played Portland, they almost
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: got caught. They only won by four, and they actually
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: lost the other game to Portland in Portland. So maybe
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: Dallas won't overlook them here. Portland's not a very good team.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: Portland is coming in from losing to Washington, so they
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: are starting a road trip here, I believe, which usually
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: is a focused spot. They're probably not going to overlook Dallas,
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: but coming off kind of a tougher game against a
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: better defense. Although that game is very high scoring against Washington.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: I don't have a whole lot on this one. Man.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on Portland. I don't know what
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: to think about that. Fifty percent of tickets, eighty five
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Portland. You're getting like eight
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: and a half or nine with them. But this is
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: a high total. The Chicago Connecticut game is a low total,
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: and so is the last game I'm going to talk about.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: Those games are both in the one sixties. This game
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: is in the one seventies. It's a little bit of
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: a higher. It's more of a mid range total. I
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: guess I don't I don't have a good feel for
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: the side here. I could see the argument the over
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: in this game Portland and Dallas, because I don't think
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: either team is very good defensively, even though Portland has
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: kind of cleaned that up a little bit recently. Both
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: teams kind of get involved in high scoring games and
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: that might be what happens here. Fifty percent of tickets
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: sixty three percent of the couch on the over, so
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: the money does agree with that. I don't really do
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: WNBA totals though. And then the last game is the
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: game that I was looking at the hardest, the night
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: the hardest, so God, the night game, which is Washington
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: and Phoenix. People are gonna look at this and see,
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: Washington has a positive record, a good record, they have
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: a positive road record. Phoenix has a very bad record
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: and also not good at home. Yet Washington's only a
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: one and a half point favorite here, and yeah, part
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: of that is because they're on the road, although home
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: court advantage isn't that strong in the WNBA. But you know,
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: the public's gonna look at this and think it looks
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: so easy to take Washington here. So that has me
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: really hesitate, right like that has been looking towards Phoenix
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: because it's like, why would Washington only be favored by
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: one and a half year. Well, Phoenix, you know, they
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: do have a I believe she's still there. They do
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: have Kelsey Plumb, so that definitely improved their rotation a
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: bit with Phoenix there, so they're a better team with
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: her there. Phoenix plays in a more difficult conference, the West,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: and they've had one of them more difficult schedules, so
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: I keep saying, I think Phoenix is not quite as
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: bad as the record looks, and Plumb wasn't there for
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: most of this, so they are better with her there.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: Washington is definitely a good defensive team, but I don't
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: know if we want to lay points on the road
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: with them, even though this is basically a pick the
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: winner situation, it just looks way too easy to play
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: Washington now. Washington is coming off kind of a whatever
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: game against Portland, which I already mentioned. They had a
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: big game against Minnesota the game before that. They're playing
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: a lot of games in quick succession here, though, like
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: they're playing a fourth game in the last whatever this
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: is what is this seven days? So they've had kind
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: of a packed schedule here, and they've had to travel
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: between the last three of these games, so Yeah, the
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: spot isn't exactly great, and Washington did just beat Phoenix
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: at home by twenty at the beginning of August, they
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: might not fully pay attention to Phoenix here. Phoenix is
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: coming off kind of a tough game as well against
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: Atlanta where they lost the game, but Phoenix is staying
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: at home. They're more rested before that. They hadn't played
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: since Sunday, so Phoenix is the way more rested team here,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: which probably is being factored into the line a little bit,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: but mostly it just looks way too easy, Like I
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: don't think there's that much to do with the spot here,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: but it looks way too easy to play Washington. So yeah,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: I would play Phoenix, And I think if I was
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: gonna play any of these games today, it would be
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: that one. I would take Phoenix plus like the two
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: you can get them plus two, maybe even two and
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: a half. At this point, the money the market seems
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: to agree sixty seven percent of tickets on Washington, seventy
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Phoenix. So yeah, that's what
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: I would be looking. That's the way I would be looking.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: I'd be looking towards Phoenix there. That's gonna do it. Man,
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: check out my college football show if you didn't watch
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: it from yesterday. I still have to update the thumbnails
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: and whatever and get it out on audio. I made
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: a few mistakes, like not remembering the TWU lane won
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: their conference last year. But it's also kind of irrelevant anyway.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: But I gave out some information about what all the
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: different like roster changes are and stuff like that, so
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: you can check that out if you want, just kind
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: of a breakdown where I thought there might be some
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: value in the futures market. College football will be starting
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: this weekend, so like, subscribe to the channel here, man,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: and you'll get my You get the notifications when I
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: do the other football stuff. I still have NFL previews
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: stuff to do anyway. The plays today are Kansas City
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: Royal's first five money line over eight and a half
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: in Oriels Saint Louis or you might be able to
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: find an eight. I gotta look at what the market
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: looks like now see if I can find a better
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: number on that, and then also under seven and a half,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: which you do have to be a little bit of
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: juice for in Cleveland and Anaheim. If it gets to
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: be about minus one twenty five, I would say, start
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: looking towards playing it under seven instead, even though I
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: know it's on that key number instead of above it. Yes,
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: learn a tone on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagra. Like,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here, Like I said, you'll be
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: notified with the football content coming out. We're gonna start
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: doing the night football content again.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: Probably I'll just start doing that Friday night. I guess.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Depends on what I'm doing. Well, I
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: don't know. I gotta figure that out. Yeah, Friday night.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: Probably will Yeah, that's probably what I'll do. I'll figure
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: it out. But yeah, subscribe and you'll get notified. It's
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be a short slate though, for college football for
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: week zero. But whatever. Listen on an audio Apple, Spotify
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: spreaker covered in yuke My Ukulele channel on YouTube is
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: there Patreon, dot com, slash and learn to tone if
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: you want to support me that way. The New York Giants,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: g Spot podcast and Loser Cast will be back tonight.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: Gotta figure out who I want my loser to be.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: We'll figure it out. That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody,
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging out. Peace.
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: If the docs, dots talk and hand me the phone.
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 3: Let somebody in, so let somebody know.
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 4: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 4: hold on nothing nice not now hold on, hold on.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: Let me pull.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: You are that bad luck by time, but it don't
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 4: get the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me, Now,
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: hold on, hold on, You're still here.