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The ‘axis of upheaval’ that's forming against the West · The Morning Edition

• 0:00
  S1: Just a quick note before we launch into today's episode,
• 0:03
  S1: because next Thursday, we'll be airing a special episode with
• 0:07
  S1: international and political editor Peter Hartcher, in which he will
• 0:11
  S1: be answering your questions. So if you'd like us to
• 0:14
  S1: talk about what you're wondering about, whether it's about local
• 0:16
  S1: politics or geopolitical matters, please send your questions to podcasts@9.com.au
• 0:23
  S1: and we may feature it next week on air. And
• 0:26
  S1: now to today's episode. Since the Cold War ended more
• 0:34
  S1: than 35 years ago, many of us have likely not
• 0:37
  S1: given much thought to block warfare. Those nuclear threats that
• 0:41
  S1: the Western and Eastern blocs hurled at each other a
• 0:45
  S1: thing of the past. But lately, the beginnings of a
• 0:48
  S1: return to block warfare have revealed themselves. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris,
• 0:54
  S1: and you're listening to Morning Edition. From The Age and
• 0:57
  S1: the Sydney Morning Herald today, International and political editor Peter
• 1:02
  S1: Hartcher on the group of countries that are assisting each
• 1:05
  S1: other to fight wars, and why few of us have
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  S1: heard about their grouping. It's April the 23rd. Welcome, Peter,
• 1:22
  S1: back to the podcast.
• 1:23
  S2: Pleasure to be here, Samantha.
• 1:24
  S1: Okay. Can you start off by telling us who makes
• 1:26
  S1: up this cranks grouping, and why were you moved to
• 1:29
  S1: write about them now? Because you point out in your
• 1:31
  S1: column it, you know, formed about nine years ago. It's
• 1:35
  S1: not new. So why now?
• 1:37
  S2: Well, it was first cooked up as simply an acronym
• 1:40
  S2: to describe a group of four countries that sort of
• 1:44
  S2: made up America's leading enemies, the leading enemies of the West.
• 1:49
  S2: So it's cranks, which is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.
• 1:55
  S2: That's the group. Yeah. But it wasn't in any way
• 1:58
  S2: a group. It was just four For countries that were
• 2:01
  S2: deemed to be anti-American anti-Western interests. Okay. The reason to
• 2:06
  S2: write about it now is that we see those four
• 2:09
  S2: countries cooperating on the battlefield. They had done it in
• 2:14
  S2: and continue to do it in Ukraine during the Russian
• 2:17
  S2: invasion of Ukraine. They've all come in on Russia's side
• 2:20
  S2: to help Russia defeat Ukraine. And now the new element
• 2:25
  S2: and the reason I wrote about it is that on
• 2:27
  S2: the battlefield in Iran, the four have coalesced again to
• 2:32
  S2: support the Iranians against the US. So it's not any
• 2:37
  S2: more just an acronym or a, you know, a random
• 2:40
  S2: bunch of names. It's a battlefield coalition where four countries
• 2:47
  S2: come together to support each other in wars against Western interests.
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  S1: Okay. So, Peter, let's start off. Can you walk us
• 2:54
  S1: through the various and practical ways in which China is
• 2:57
  S1: helping Iran in, of course, its war against Israel and
• 3:01
  S1: the United States.
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  S2: Well, China is, of course, the biggest and most capable
• 3:05
  S2: of the four countries. It's helping Iran in a number
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  S2: of ways and has been. And one of those is
• 3:12
  S2: supplying propellant for solid fuel rockets, for missiles. There are sanctions,
• 3:19
  S2: international sanctions on Iran to prevent them getting this stuff.
• 3:23
  S2: But we've learned from various media reporting that thousands of
• 3:27
  S2: tons of solid fuel missile propellant precursors have been sent
• 3:34
  S2: from China to Iran, which would allow them to build
• 3:38
  S2: to assemble. It's been estimated, thousands of ballistic missiles, at
• 3:42
  S2: least a thousand ballistic missiles, depending on the size and range.
• 3:46
  S2: So that's big. That's huge. Another one is that China
• 3:51
  S2: has given Iran access to its proprietary and military grade
• 3:55
  S2: GPS system. So the world has a few different GPS systems.
• 3:59
  S2: There's the US based one, which we in Australia use
• 4:02
  S2: in most countries in the West use. The Russians have
• 4:05
  S2: got their own one. The EU has their own one.
• 4:08
  S2: Galileo and the Chinese have their one called the BeiDou system,
• 4:13
  S2: the BeiDou system. It's been around for a few years.
• 4:15
  S2: It's global, it's high tech. And they've they've given the
• 4:19
  S2: Iranians access to their top level military grade, most sensitive
• 4:22
  S2: and secret, uh, beta satellite satellite system, which comes down
• 4:27
  S2: to very fine resolutions to allow them to target their
• 4:31
  S2: their missiles better. Then there's another revelation from just last
• 4:35
  S2: week that China has also given Iran access to a
• 4:39
  S2: high grade satellite system that gives particular assistance in targeting
• 4:45
  S2: for missile and drone attacks on US bases and interests,
• 4:49
  S2: and also the other Gulf countries. One example of how
• 4:53
  S2: it appears to have worked, according to London's Financial Times,
• 4:56
  S2: which got obtained the logs for the use of this
• 4:58
  S2: satellite by the Iranians is that the US had five
• 5:03
  S2: Air Force planes on the tarmac in Saudi Arabia, refueling planes,
• 5:09
  S2: and the Iranians successfully hit all of them using the satellite,
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  S2: it seems provided by China. So that's that's quite a
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  S2: bit of assistance already. Plus, China buys something like 90%
• 5:22
  S2: of all Iran's oil. And that gives the Iranians, depending
• 5:26
  S2: upon the year and the oil price, about between a
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  S2: third and a half of all government revenues that flow
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  S2: to Iran. So without that sale of sanctioned oil to China,
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  S2: the Iranian government would have collapsed long ago.
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  S1: Okay. So this would have helped Iran presumably continue to
• 5:43
  S1: prosecute its war against Israel in the United States. But
• 5:46
  S1: it's not just China, of course, that is helping Iran.
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  S1: So tell us what North Korea is doing to help Iran.
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  S2: Well, the North Koreans, this surprisingly didn't get a lot
• 5:55
  S2: of publicity, but the North Koreans have proven that they
• 5:59
  S2: have both. Intercontinental ballistic missiles. And they also have nuclear warheads,
• 6:06
  S2: which they've been testing underground, which. So we know that
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  S2: they work. The Iranians have said that if Israel should
• 6:14
  S2: attack Iran with a nuclear weapon, then the North Koreans
• 6:18
  S2: would explode, would fire nuclear weapons into Israel. So that's
• 6:24
  S2: that's that's pretty spicy. And they.
• 6:27
  S1: At.
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  S2: Least. Yeah. Yeah. So that's, that's a pretty fulsome expression
• 6:32
  S2: of support by Kim Jong un. The other big and
• 6:36
  S2: important assistance. And this is not a threat or theoretical.
• 6:40
  S2: This is actual is missile technology. The North Koreans have
• 6:44
  S2: been sending engineers for years to help the Iranians improve
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  S2: and perfect the technology for all of their short and
• 6:53
  S2: medium range missiles, making them faster, more lethal, better targeting
• 6:57
  S2: and all all of that. So that's been really important
• 7:00
  S2: for the Iranians to get that help from from Pyongyang.
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  S1: Okay. But it's not just all the ways in which
• 7:07
  S1: the cranks are coming together to support Iran in its
• 7:10
  S1: war that you've mentioned just now, because Russia and North Korea,
• 7:13
  S1: they're also then benefiting from China, right?
• 7:17
  S2: Yes. So again, oil is a big thing because it's
• 7:20
  S2: how these countries remain solvent. They're only able to continue
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  S2: as functioning states because the Chinese government buys their oil
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  S2: in large quantities. Russia, North Korea, Iran, all of them
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  S2: are kept afloat in the case of North Korea. They're
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  S2: such an impoverished country. They can't afford the oil imports
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  S2: that they need to keep their economy running. So their
• 7:44
  S2: Chinese friends help them with a heavily discounted oil at
• 7:48
  S2: friendship prices, they call it. Wow. Into North Korea. So
• 7:52
  S2: it's a system that, uh, where of mutual mutual assistance
• 7:58
  S2: that we see coalescing on the battlefield more and more,
• 8:02
  S2: not only in Ukraine. And we saw that really bizarre
• 8:06
  S2: scene last year in Ukraine, on the battlefield where 15,000
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  S2: North Korean soldiers turned up. That's that's way out of
• 8:15
  S2: zone from North Korea to Ukraine, fighting against the Ukrainians
• 8:21
  S2: to help the Russians. That was really something. And if
• 8:24
  S2: there were any doubt any more, that the two theaters,
• 8:28
  S2: the European theater and the Indo Pacific Theater were actually
• 8:33
  S2: one and the same. They were dispelled with that battlefield
• 8:36
  S2: evidence and operates on many other aspects and realms as well.
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  S2: But that's a real thing. And the shrinks actually had
• 8:44
  S2: their own little coming out moment last year.
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  S1: Well, they did, they did. And you you had a
• 8:49
  S1: spicy sentence about that one. So I might just lead
• 8:51
  S1: you to that Peter, because you said that, yes, there
• 8:54
  S1: was this coming out party in September, but some listeners
• 8:56
  S1: might remember that that was, of course, when the leaders
• 8:58
  S1: of Iran, Russia, China and North Korea gathered in Beijing
• 9:02
  S1: and you said there were some useful idiots for the
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  S1: Chinese Communist Party, among them Victoria's Premier Dan Andrews and
• 9:09
  S1: New South Wales Premier Bob Carr. Though, as you noted,
• 9:13
  S1: Carr didn't appear at the military parade. A big deal
• 9:15
  S1: was made of that at the time. Which leads me
• 9:17
  S1: to my question, which is does the presence of Bob Carr,
• 9:22
  S1: Dan Andrews, among others? Does this explain why perhaps many
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  S1: of us haven't heard of shrinks like. Are they an
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  S1: example of perhaps people that don't recognize the danger in
• 9:34
  S1: this block that they pose?
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  S2: Well, it's true that most people haven't heard the acronym shrinks,
• 9:40
  S2: but we're going to be hearing more about it in
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  S2: the year ahead as they continue to coalesce and cooperate.
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  S2: In the case of those two labor premiers, I don't
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  S2: think they have that excuse. They've both run governments. They're
• 9:55
  S2: well briefed on international affairs and well informed. They've both
• 10:00
  S2: emerged as apologists for the Chinese Communist Party. In an
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  S2: embarrassing event for Victoria and for our country, Dan Andrews
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  S2: signed Victoria up for the Belt and Road Agreement with China.
• 10:13
  S2: That's right. It was embarrassing for two reasons. First of all,
• 10:16
  S2: Victoria is able was able to raise funds more cheaply,
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  S2: issued bonds to finance state borrowing more cheaply in its
• 10:27
  S2: own name than doing it from China. The Chinese would
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  S2: have charged them more. So why you would make yourself
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  S2: subject to their political influence by allowing your state to
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  S2: do that is one question. And the answer was provided
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  S2: by the federal government, which cancelled that arrangement on behalf
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  S2: of the Victorian government. So that was one measure. And
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  S2: Bob Carr is just a consistent friend for the Chinese
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  S2: Communist Party in Australia. So they were showing up in
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  S2: Beijing to show support for the Chinese Communist Party and
• 10:59
  S2: their historic celebration of victory over the Japanese in World
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  S2: War Two. So that's what that was about. But was
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  S2: it was it naive? Um, was it conniving? Uh, was
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  S2: it just a gesture of friendship? I don't know, but
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  S2: it was foolish.
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  S1: Just one more question on that, Peter. Just more broadly
• 11:18
  S1: in terms of why so many of us hadn't really
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  S1: heard about this block, didn't know much about it. Because
• 11:24
  S1: you quote Lavinia Lee. She's the director of the Foreign
• 11:27
  S1: Policy and Defense Program at the University of Sydney's US
• 11:29
  S1: Studies Center. And she says, you know, it's quite alarming.
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  S1: She says the world is becoming extremely dangerous because these
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  S1: countries are assisting each other to fight wars. And you
• 11:39
  S1: also quote a pair of American scholars that call them
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  S1: an axis of upheaval who are presenting a generational challenge.
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  S1: So why don't we know about it, Peter?
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  S2: Well, partly it's because it is new and unfolding day
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  S2: by day, week by week, which is why I wrote
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  S2: my column about it, because this is a new development
• 12:00
  S2: we should know about. But it's also important because it gives.
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  S2: If you look at the geography on the map of
• 12:08
  S2: where Iran, Russia, China are, you can see it gives
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  S2: them a commanding position over the Eurasian landmass, which in
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  S2: a lot of conventional strategic thinking means that they have
• 12:22
  S2: there in the box seat for global dominance. If you
• 12:23
  S2: can dominate the Eurasian landmass, there's a contending school of
• 12:28
  S2: thought that says it's about sea power, but there is
• 12:32
  S2: no question that it gives them a strong combined position
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  S2: together with the North Koreans and their strategic position, obviously,
• 12:40
  S2: which they have a land border with, China gives them
• 12:43
  S2: a large band of continuity across three separate continents, which is,
• 12:49
  S2: you know, a large and increasingly relevant phenomenon which gives
• 12:54
  S2: them which makes them more than the sum of their parts.
• 13:01
  S1: After the break.
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  S2: As China and North Korea are now working more closely
• 13:05
  S2: with Russia and Iran, you can't pick your enemy. You're
• 13:08
  S2: getting all four, whether you like it or not.
• 13:17
  S1: Okay. So is this why Levin Lee, again from the
• 13:19
  S1: US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney? Is this
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  S1: why she said that even if there is a cease
• 13:24
  S1: fire between Iran and U.S. and Israel, she said China,
• 13:28
  S1: Russia and North Korea will will not stop. This is
• 13:31
  S1: this isn't going to stop. This isn't over. Even if
• 13:34
  S1: that cease fire were to to come to pass. Is
• 13:37
  S1: this why? Because.
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  S2: Yes, because this is a this is not a one
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  S2: off event where they've come together just for a few
• 13:45
  S2: weeks to help each other. This is an enduring structural
• 13:50
  S2: system now, and they will continue to help the Iranians
• 13:54
  S2: to rebuild their stock. And in drones and missiles And
• 13:58
  S2: the Iranians, when they have have space, will continue their
• 14:03
  S2: support for the other countries in the group. They had drones,
• 14:07
  S2: for example, have become famous worldwide because the Iranians have
• 14:11
  S2: supplied their drones and their technology to Russia to make
• 14:15
  S2: war against Ukraine. All of all of those elements are
• 14:19
  S2: come together. It's not a one off. It's a it's
• 14:21
  S2: a package deal.
• 14:22
  S1: Okay. And so you and I were talking just before
• 14:24
  S1: we started recording today about the announcement just on Tuesday
• 14:28
  S1: that Japan made, that they are now allowing the sale
• 14:30
  S1: of weapons abroad to 17 countries. This includes selling warships
• 14:34
  S1: to us. This is, of course, very notable for Japan,
• 14:37
  S1: which has that pacifist constitution. So tell us about the
• 14:41
  S1: significance of this, Peter. Does this indicate, you know, a
• 14:44
  S1: practical counterpoint, I guess, to the danger that is being
• 14:48
  S1: posed by this collective?
• 14:51
  S2: Yeah, I'd make two points in the immediate sense. What
• 14:54
  S2: Japan has done is realizing that the US is not
• 14:59
  S2: a reliable ally. It's decided it needs to do much
• 15:02
  S2: more in its own defense. And that's been going on
• 15:05
  S2: for a few years. But the current prime minister, Japan's
• 15:08
  S2: first female prime minister, Takeuchi Sanae Takaichi, has is accelerating
• 15:14
  S2: Japan's doubling of its defense budget as a percentage of
• 15:17
  S2: GDP from 1% to two. She's taken a much more
• 15:21
  S2: assertive and open stance against China and North Korea. And
• 15:28
  S2: as part of that, Japan is now selling weaponry to countries.
• 15:32
  S2: There are 17 countries to which it says it's friendly
• 15:36
  S2: or like minded countries to which it can sell even
• 15:39
  S2: its biggest military hardware ships and planes and all the
• 15:44
  S2: rest of it. Australia is buying a $10 billion worth
• 15:46
  S2: of frigates, the Mogami class frigates from Japan, which is
• 15:50
  S2: helpful to Australia because it gives us a source that's
• 15:52
  S2: not the US. It helps diversify our supplies of military hardware. Essentially,
• 15:58
  S2: this says we can't rely on the US. We're not
• 16:01
  S2: big enough ourselves. We need to help arm our friends.
• 16:05
  S2: And what are they arming against? They're arming against China
• 16:09
  S2: and North Korea. But as China and North Korea are
• 16:12
  S2: now working more closely with Russia and Iran, you can't separate.
• 16:16
  S2: You can't you can't pick your enemy. It comes as
• 16:19
  S2: a boxed set. You know, you're getting all four whether
• 16:22
  S2: you like it or not. So that's the immediate point
• 16:24
  S2: about Japan. The larger point I'd make is Japan obviously
• 16:28
  S2: was unique with its post-war pacifist constitution. The other big
• 16:32
  S2: pacifist or quasi pacifist state since World War Two has
• 16:37
  S2: been Germany, although it's been a member of NATO. It's
• 16:40
  S2: really been reluctant in terms of defense and security matters.
• 16:45
  S2: The Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said that the NATO bloc
• 16:49
  S2: can't be relied on. The US can't be relied on,
• 16:51
  S2: that the European nations have to be prepared to stand
• 16:54
  S2: on their own feet. He has declared the pre existing
• 16:58
  S2: world order. He said, quote, it no longer exists. So
• 17:04
  S2: Germany has announced a massive upgrading of its defense budget,
• 17:09
  S2: doubling of its defense budget, and is taking many more
• 17:13
  S2: active steps to prepare for war, including talking to the
• 17:19
  S2: French about using the French nuclear shield. And Germany's also
• 17:25
  S2: started a pilot program in national service. It's not it's
• 17:28
  S2: not the old style conscription or military national service, but
• 17:32
  S2: it is a pilot program starting with some thousands of
• 17:35
  S2: young men and women. If they choose to do a
• 17:39
  S2: year or so of training. And they've said that they'll
• 17:43
  S2: wrap this up in over the years to come, to
• 17:47
  S2: be more prepared for war. They're preparing for a war
• 17:52
  S2: with Russia. So this is big stuff. And these are
• 17:55
  S2: these are big decisions, big changes in our time.
• 17:58
  S1: Wow. That's interesting. And Peter, just to wrap up, I
• 18:00
  S1: wanted to ask, I mean, we've recently had an announcement
• 18:02
  S1: from our Defense Department in the government, of course, about
• 18:06
  S1: they're upping spending. So might we become part of this counter, uh,
• 18:10
  S1: effort against shrinks? You know, obviously Japan with its selling
• 18:13
  S1: its weapons in Germany and.
• 18:15
  S2: Yeah.
• 18:15
  S1: What about us, Peter?
• 18:17
  S2: Well, well, we are already effectively. Are we? Yes.
• 18:20
  S1: In a practical way.
• 18:21
  S2: Very practical ways. So in the last couple of years,
• 18:25
  S2: the Australian government has signed agreements with Japan, for example,
• 18:28
  S2: to share each other's military bases and facilities. This is
• 18:32
  S2: big stuff for Japan. And Japan obviously had its post-war
• 18:36
  S2: alliance with the US. But the next biggest arrangement it's
• 18:40
  S2: had defence arrangement with another government was this agreement with Australia.
• 18:44
  S2: So Australia has also been doing signing deals and arms
• 18:48
  S2: contracts and military cooperation deals. New treaty with Papua New
• 18:52
  S2: Guinea last year. Yeah. Defence arrangement with Indonesia in the
• 18:56
  S2: last few months, as well as increasing the defense budget,
• 19:00
  S2: which we. And we saw some further announcements about that
• 19:03
  S2: last week using the NATO definition of what a military
• 19:06
  S2: budget is. Australia is going from its current 2.8% of
• 19:09
  S2: GDP budget to three over the next few years, and
• 19:15
  S2: at the same time, the unspoken enemy in public governments
• 19:19
  S2: too polite to talk openly about China as the Australia's enemy.
• 19:25
  S2: But all the defence planning is done with China in mind.
• 19:28
  S2: The previous government was more outspoken, but that didn't that.
• 19:31
  S1: Didn't go.
• 19:32
  S2: Well. There was a bit of a.
• 19:34
  S1: Blowback.
• 19:34
  S2: Electoral blowback from that. So governments have gone quiet about it.
• 19:37
  S2: But the defence planning continues apace. And as we've been discussing,
• 19:42
  S2: if you if you're preparing for confrontations with China, you
• 19:46
  S2: have to be prepared for them to be cooperating with Russia,
• 19:50
  S2: Iran and North Korea as well.
• 19:52
  S1: The box set.
• 19:53
  S2: The box of nasty tricks.
• 19:55
  S1: Yeah. That's right. You said. You said before recording, we
• 19:57
  S1: can no longer pick an enemy. They come as a set.
• 19:59
  S1: That's right. I mean, that's it's not good, Peter. Not
• 20:03
  S1: the first time I've said this in our conversations, but.
• 20:05
  S2: It is an interesting development because, you know, we've seen
• 20:08
  S2: block rivalry, the Cold War, World War II, Cold War,
• 20:11
  S2: classic examples where you had two competing blocs. With the
• 20:15
  S2: end of the Cold War, the Soviet bloc collapsed and
• 20:18
  S2: the US block continued. What's now happened is that that splintered,
• 20:23
  S2: atomized bloc of former Soviet communist states, some of those
• 20:29
  S2: countries have now picked themselves up and putting themselves together.
• 20:33
  S2: Those four in particular, those countries where we see active
• 20:37
  S2: and increasing battlefield cooperation. So this is a new block
• 20:41
  S2: at the very same time as the US led bloc
• 20:44
  S2: is loosening and maybe even falling apart. It's a bit
• 20:47
  S2: early to tell, but Donald Trump is certainly not doing
• 20:49
  S2: anything to hold it together.
• 20:51
  S1: So even though, you know, you felt like you had
• 20:53
  S1: to write this column to, to let people know, hey,
• 20:55
  S1: there is this new development and it is significant, really.
• 20:58
  S1: This is historic in terms of, you know, it's a
• 21:00
  S1: new block. It's a powerful block. Oh yes. I mean,
• 21:03
  S1: this is again, I know we've used this phrase on
• 21:05
  S1: this podcast together before, but this sounds like another instance of,
• 21:09
  S1: of big history in the making.
• 21:11
  S2: It absolutely is. It's the emergence of block confrontation in
• 21:16
  S2: the world once more. It's not great the trend in
• 21:21
  S2: which the world is heading, but it's real.
• 21:23
  S1: Well, I'm glad you're writing about it. Thanks, Peter.
• 21:25
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 21:33
  S1: In other news today, Kate McClymont exclusively reported that philanthropist
• 21:37
  S1: Judith Neilson has accused her secretary of stealing $1.5 million
• 21:42
  S1: for first class flights, extravagant hotel stays, designer clothes, accessories,
• 21:48
  S1: jewellery and artwork. And Health Minister Mark Butler announced sweeping
• 21:53
  S1: changes to the NDIS with access to the scheme moving
• 21:57
  S1: to assessments of a person's functional capacity rather than relying
• 22:01
  S1: on diagnosis alone. He said actual spend by NDIS participants
• 22:05
  S1: will be cut to 2023 levels, and the cost of
• 22:09
  S1: the third parties involved in the scheme reduced by 30%.
• 22:13
  S1: You can find full coverage of these long anticipated reforms,
• 22:17
  S1: along with analysis and what it means for impacted families
• 22:21
  S1: on our websites. Visit smh.com.au and the age.com.au. Today's episode
• 22:31
  S1: was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
• 22:35
  S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
• 22:39
  S1: If you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and
• 22:42
  S1: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks
• 22:45
  S1: for listening.