Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / War Escalates Fed Rate Hikes!?🔥Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Pieces over crypto might be cooked. Today, We're going to
- 0:02Speaker 1: break it down for you. There is a lot happening
- 0:05Speaker 1: in the market, so get ready.
- 0:07Speaker 2: Guys.
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- 0:38Speaker 2: All right, let's go into it today.
- 0:40Speaker 1: I want to talk about this right here, and that
- 0:42Speaker 1: is the impact on the markets itself. We're talking about
- 0:46Speaker 1: a half a trillion dollars, guys. That's right, half a trillion.
- 0:50Speaker 1: This gets a little bit sketchy because there is a
- 0:53Speaker 1: lot hitting right now with what's going on with the
- 0:57Speaker 1: MoU and the Iranian war being stalled. You look right here,
- 1:01Speaker 1: over six hundred billion wiped out from precious metals. That's
- 1:05Speaker 1: in the last ninety minutes.
- 1:07Speaker 2: Now by now.
- 1:07Speaker 1: Who knows where it's going to be going. Gold is
- 1:09Speaker 1: down almost two percent, Silver is down four, probably going
- 1:13Speaker 1: to five or six percent down. That would be wiping
- 1:16Speaker 1: out over one hundred and fifty billion dollars in a
- 1:19Speaker 1: very short period of time. The market is absolutely getting
- 1:22Speaker 1: cooked right now. The S and P five hundred down,
- 1:25Speaker 1: one NASDAC down one point five, WTI Crew down is
- 1:30Speaker 1: up five. We'll talk about that. Brent's up six. Mainly
- 1:34Speaker 1: energy is going to get a move right now. So
- 1:37Speaker 1: if you're in energy stocks, you're probably nice and happy.
- 1:40Speaker 2: For the day.
- 1:41Speaker 1: So I want to go to a clip real quick
- 1:42Speaker 1: that we'll get into what Trump said about all of this,
- 1:46Speaker 1: because it's not good. Take a look the sea fire.
- 1:49Speaker 3: Over, it's the seatfire done? Is the EMO? You dead?
- 1:52Speaker 3: To me?
- 1:54Speaker 2: I think it's over.
- 1:55Speaker 4: I don't want to deal with them. And then with
- 1:56Speaker 4: this scum. You know what scum is?
- 1:58Speaker 2: This scum, this six per Well, as far as.
- 2:00Speaker 3: I'm concerned, it's over.
- 2:02Speaker 4: I'll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. They're
- 2:05Speaker 4: good people, Steve Woodcuff, Jared Gusher, but they have to
- 2:09Speaker 4: come back to me, and.
- 2:10Speaker 5: So we hit them very hard last night, very probably
- 2:13Speaker 5: hit them hard again tonight.
- 2:14Speaker 2: I'll give them a little warning. We're gonna hit them
- 2:16Speaker 2: hard tonight. All right, guys.
- 2:18Speaker 1: I don't know, but listen, I'm not political, but what
- 2:22Speaker 1: I do understand, this is not how you negotiate.
- 2:25Speaker 2: No matter what the other side does.
- 2:27Speaker 1: I understand sometimes you get a little upset they don't
- 2:30Speaker 1: come to the table for in some cases good reason.
- 2:33Speaker 2: But you just can't do that.
- 2:34Speaker 1: You can't go out there and call people names, and
- 2:36Speaker 1: you know, just get into this rhetoric fight because all
- 2:39Speaker 1: it does if you have another side that's just as unstable,
- 2:42Speaker 1: it doesn't do.
- 2:43Speaker 2: Anything in terms of forwarding.
- 2:45Speaker 1: The idea of peace, which is really the thing that
- 2:47Speaker 1: we're trying to focus on. The Irenian state media, of course,
- 2:50Speaker 1: doubled down on this, saying, oh yeah, you strike us,
- 2:52Speaker 1: we're gonna hit.
- 2:53Speaker 2: You twice as hard.
- 2:54Speaker 1: This is the kind of rhetoric that most likely will
- 2:56Speaker 1: be in place, I think for the next few weeks.
- 2:59Speaker 1: It does not look good right now. And you've got
- 3:02Speaker 1: the Trump You've got the president in a position right
- 3:05Speaker 1: now where he's starting to I don't know, maybe this
- 3:08Speaker 1: is shaking him a little bit. He's referring to Zelenski
- 3:11Speaker 1: as putin, he's got the Islamic Republic of Japan in here.
- 3:15Speaker 1: Both those don't exist. So this is an issue right
- 3:19Speaker 1: now that I think we are faced with. And let's
- 3:22Speaker 1: just think about this right now. Because you have this
- 3:25Speaker 1: reignition of the war, you have other situations that many
- 3:30Speaker 1: people would say, all right, it's all been really centered
- 3:33Speaker 1: around the relationship with Israel. And if you look at
- 3:36Speaker 1: something that's happening right now, the congressional proposal, This is
- 3:40Speaker 1: a congressional proposal that could deepen the US complicity within
- 3:45Speaker 1: this especially involved and I want to zoom in on.
- 3:48Speaker 2: This for you guys to look at this. This is
- 3:50Speaker 2: very interesting.
- 3:51Speaker 1: This is buried in the one point five or one
- 3:54Speaker 1: point one five trillion National Defense Authorization Act. So basically
- 3:58Speaker 1: mil Milan does military industrial complex. This would enable section
- 4:04Speaker 1: two nineteen formerly two twenty four, so you guys can
- 4:06Speaker 1: go out there and AI at all you want. It
- 4:08Speaker 1: creates a role of an executive agent keyword executive agent,
- 4:13Speaker 1: and focuses on folding Israel technology into US weapons programs
- 4:18Speaker 1: and vice versa, including missile air defense technologies, AI, quantum computing,
- 4:24Speaker 1: cyber warfare, and autonomous systems. Does this sound like we're
- 4:30Speaker 1: trying to get out of war? This does not look good,
- 4:33Speaker 1: and I think this is a problem if we continue
- 4:36Speaker 1: to see this kind of issue. Thomas Massey, of course
- 4:40Speaker 1: hits on this. He's going to go back in and
- 4:41Speaker 1: try to offer an amendment to strip section two nineteen
- 4:45Speaker 1: from the NDAA. And if that happens when the House
- 4:49Speaker 1: reconvenes on July thirteenth, only one problem. If you look
- 4:53Speaker 1: at the calendar for this, let me kind of zoom
- 4:56Speaker 1: in on that right there, guys, there's nothing that he
- 4:58Speaker 1: could present on.
- 5:00Speaker 2: So you've got the budget.
- 5:01Speaker 1: Maybe he's talking about the fourteen because on the thirteen, no,
- 5:03Speaker 1: not going to happen. Maybe he's got to be talking
- 5:05Speaker 1: about the fourteen, trying to do something in the oversight
- 5:07Speaker 1: maybe or in they hearing the budgetaring. I don't know
- 5:09Speaker 1: where he would do it to be able to get
- 5:11Speaker 1: this in. I want to go to another clip here,
- 5:13Speaker 1: because this gets into what Tucker Carlson was talking about
- 5:17Speaker 1: with another politician around section two nineteen.
- 5:21Speaker 2: It gets very scary. Take a look, who are the
- 5:25Speaker 2: people pushing this?
- 5:27Speaker 4: But this was folded into the bill. Nobody knows who
- 5:30Speaker 4: put it in that's number one. Number two, they don't
- 5:33Speaker 4: want to talk about it. They just want to quietly
- 5:35Speaker 4: slip this provision into a bill without debate. Remember, they
- 5:39Speaker 4: shut off any hope and the Rules committee of a
- 5:41Speaker 4: debate over an amendment by Tom Massey and Roe Conna.
- 5:45Speaker 4: They had an amendment up. They didn't even include it
- 5:49Speaker 4: in the list of amendments that would be made in
- 5:51Speaker 4: order when they go to the floor. There was no
- 5:53Speaker 4: debate in the committee over this. You know, when it
- 5:57Speaker 4: gets to the floor, then there can't be There won't
- 5:59Speaker 4: be any debate over this provision.
- 6:00Speaker 2: And we don't know who pushed it.
- 6:02Speaker 4: Well, we know whose idea it was, Benjamint. Now who
- 6:07Speaker 4: they can entangle the US into things all of a sudden,
- 6:11Speaker 4: you want to fight me, buddy, here's me buddy, you know,
- 6:13Speaker 4: and you're off to the next.
- 6:15Speaker 5: War without the Congress ever debating it, no one going
- 6:18Speaker 5: on the record to support it. It would just all
- 6:20Speaker 5: of a sudden become part of the system. It's embedded
- 6:23Speaker 5: in the way the US government operates it. They just
- 6:27Speaker 5: can effectively control eighty percent of our discris.
- 6:31Speaker 4: No committee hearings, no debate in the bill.
- 6:35Speaker 2: There you have it, all.
- 6:37Speaker 1: Right, so this absolutely upsets me. It pisses me off
- 6:42Speaker 1: in the sense that we have lawmakers in DC that
- 6:45Speaker 1: are pulling this kind of bs and first of all,
- 6:48Speaker 1: dropping all this in in one of the issues that
- 6:51Speaker 1: we've been talking about quite a bit, and that being
- 6:53Speaker 1: involved with Israel. This is a problem going forward. I
- 6:57Speaker 1: don't understand why DC continues to go this direction. It
- 7:02Speaker 1: is definitely against what the American people want, and I
- 7:05Speaker 1: think that's going to probably show up at the polls.
- 7:08Speaker 1: The problem is is if this doesn't get flipped, it's
- 7:10Speaker 1: gonna happen, and what is it going to effect. It's
- 7:13Speaker 1: going to affect oil prices. There's Brent crude right now.
- 7:16Speaker 1: You're looking at that small little jump right there. That's
- 7:19Speaker 1: just today, guys, that's just today right there, coming in
- 7:23Speaker 1: from what were we hovering around seventy bucks a barrel
- 7:26Speaker 1: popping up already ten percent just in half a day
- 7:30Speaker 1: of what's going on. And look at this right now.
- 7:32Speaker 1: Remember the last time we saw this was February, okay,
- 7:35Speaker 1: and you saw this rise up here to this top
- 7:37Speaker 1: which was one hundred and nine dollars a barrel, then
- 7:40Speaker 1: on the early and then right there all time high
- 7:43Speaker 1: one fifteen a barrel. Guys, this goes to one twenty,
- 7:47Speaker 1: well one point thirty a barrel, and you are in
- 7:50Speaker 1: a position where you have absolute madness in the streets.
- 7:53Speaker 1: And I think the markets will take a massive hit
- 7:57Speaker 1: going forward. And of course, this is the point right
- 7:59Speaker 1: here that we're dealing with right now, because there's two
- 8:02Speaker 1: things the US cannot afford, one rate hikes and two
- 8:06Speaker 1: a prolonged costly war. The reason is because of the
- 8:09Speaker 1: energy costs themselves, much less what we're going to be
- 8:12Speaker 1: dealing with across all these other issues. In reference of
- 8:16Speaker 1: the sell off of hard assets, the market structure itself
- 8:19Speaker 1: is going to start to basically disassemble in the sense
- 8:24Speaker 1: of what we're seeing not only on stocks but precious metals,
- 8:27Speaker 1: where crypto is going to be going. I anticipate right
- 8:29Speaker 1: now Bitcoin will probably start feeling the heat, even though
- 8:32Speaker 1: it's still trading above sixty two.
- 8:34Speaker 2: As we go.
- 8:34Speaker 3: All right.
- 8:35Speaker 1: One other point right here is the FOMC minutes have
- 8:38Speaker 1: been released, which tells U a little bit more about.
- 8:41Speaker 2: What's going to happen.
- 8:42Speaker 1: The Fed officials saw case for a rate hike, but
- 8:46Speaker 1: back end holding steady. That's kind of where we are
- 8:49Speaker 1: But the point is nine officials see at least one
- 8:53Speaker 1: twenty five basis points hike this year, with six seeing
- 8:58Speaker 1: two hikes and another seeing no mover cut.
- 9:01Speaker 2: So basically you have.
- 9:03Speaker 1: More than half seeing some sort of hike this year.
- 9:07Speaker 1: And if you go in and look at the poly
- 9:09Speaker 1: market right now in October, this would be the October meeting,
- 9:13Speaker 1: this is a all time I'll go and show you
- 9:15Speaker 1: what this moved in just a week, all right, we
- 9:18Speaker 1: were setting at forty two now already pumping above fifty
- 9:22Speaker 1: over fifty percent chance right now of October meeting seeing
- 9:25Speaker 1: a fed right hike. And of course this will all
- 9:27Speaker 1: lean in on what's going on, not on the Middle
- 9:29Speaker 1: East but also with inflation.
- 9:32Speaker 2: The other thing that we have to kind of.
- 9:34Speaker 1: Get into is the realization that clarity is on the ropes.
- 9:38Speaker 1: We have been promised time in and time out. We
- 9:40Speaker 1: have now a new date August seventh, leading into this,
- 9:44Speaker 1: and I am just I don't know if you guys
- 9:46Speaker 1: are sick of it, but I am sick of it
- 9:47Speaker 1: in the sense of it just they won't get anything done,
- 9:50Speaker 1: and they're not going to get anything done by August seventh.
- 9:52Speaker 1: The probability is getting lower and lower. We just had
- 9:56Speaker 1: Rebecca Rettigon talking about this and even she had which
- 9:59Speaker 1: is she's a bull on this and she even she
- 10:01Speaker 1: had it around fifty percent.
- 10:03Speaker 2: So not a good one.
- 10:04Speaker 1: You have Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York.
- 10:09Speaker 1: Now he's throwing himself in the game of proposing the
- 10:14Speaker 1: Clarity Act in getting it down, so getting behind it.
- 10:16Speaker 1: And I think there's a reason unfortunately Cuomo has been
- 10:21Speaker 1: captured and by the crypto industry. And that's okay, I mean,
- 10:24Speaker 1: I get it, I understand, but the point is, I
- 10:26Speaker 1: don't think it makes a difference.
- 10:28Speaker 2: Right now, we are not going to see it.
- 10:30Speaker 1: The SEC, though, is on the move, and this is
- 10:33Speaker 1: something that I think will be good for crypto in general,
- 10:36Speaker 1: and that is if Clarity does not go through, the
- 10:38Speaker 1: SEC and the CFTC to a certain extent, will start
- 10:42Speaker 1: to put down regulatory framework without Clarity to at least
- 10:46Speaker 1: deal with and help clarify a lot of what crypto assets,
- 10:50Speaker 1: as well as some of these other companies are going
- 10:53Speaker 1: to be able to do to enter the market because
- 10:55Speaker 1: MIKA is not waiting and many of these companies I
- 10:58Speaker 1: think are just kind of in a position of we
- 11:00Speaker 1: are just absolutely fed up with this. So that's another issue.
- 11:04Speaker 2: Right now.
- 11:05Speaker 1: Here was another breaking news item which is not good
- 11:08Speaker 1: for crypto in general. This was the inter India's Central
- 11:11Speaker 1: Bank just called for a complete called for a complete
- 11:14Speaker 1: ban on cryptocurrency. Doesn't mean it banned it, It means
- 11:17Speaker 1: they called for it.
- 11:18Speaker 2: What does that mean?
- 11:19Speaker 3: Though?
- 11:19Speaker 2: If you look at the size.
- 11:21Speaker 1: Of India overall, this is a massive amount of people
- 11:26Speaker 1: that trade crypto and when you consider that along with
- 11:31Speaker 1: their ranking, this is number one, US is number two, Pakistan, Vietnam, Brazil,
- 11:37Speaker 1: these are the company countries right now that are pretty
- 11:41Speaker 1: much leading adoption.
- 11:42Speaker 2: This would be a huge hit on.
- 11:45Speaker 1: The crypto market I think in general. Further into that,
- 11:48Speaker 1: the crypto adoption with in India over one hundred nineteen
- 11:52Speaker 1: million owners, that's fifteen percent of worldwide users. So this
- 11:58Speaker 1: to me would be a much bigger Now, how long
- 12:01Speaker 1: would it take for them to do that, because you've
- 12:03Speaker 1: got a lot of people that own it, Maybe it
- 12:05Speaker 1: would take some time for you know, divestment or some
- 12:07Speaker 1: kind of rulemaking to go in place. Then you'd have
- 12:09Speaker 1: all sorts of loss. Who knows what would happen over there.
- 12:12Speaker 1: But the point is is it starts to slow down
- 12:14Speaker 1: the adoption curve, and that's the real issue overall, another
- 12:19Speaker 1: thing that you've got to worry about. If we don't
- 12:21Speaker 1: have enough to worry about. Now you've got the Treasury
- 12:25Speaker 1: saying that the AI bubble risk are similar to the
- 12:28Speaker 1: dot com bubble. Now this is Scott bessing, guys. This
- 12:31Speaker 1: is a guy's pretty smart when it comes to this.
- 12:34Speaker 1: Hedge fund guy understands market moves. If this is even
- 12:38Speaker 1: sniffing what happened in the dot com bubble, Remember the
- 12:41Speaker 1: dot com bubble was seven and a half trillion dollars
- 12:43Speaker 1: on a market pullback, imagine that to where it would
- 12:46Speaker 1: be today's money. That's over ten trillion dollars seven and
- 12:50Speaker 1: a half trillion to ten trillion if we looked at
- 12:53Speaker 1: it similar to what happened back in nineteen ninety nine
- 12:57Speaker 1: and two thousand. So if that even gets close, that
- 13:00Speaker 1: goes back to the point that Tom Lee has been
- 13:02Speaker 1: talking about, and that is a major pullback, possibly twenty
- 13:05Speaker 1: percent in the market. Other things that are going to
- 13:09Speaker 1: hit AI is China is now considering curbing overseas access
- 13:14Speaker 1: to its top AI models. So some of this may
- 13:17Speaker 1: look at and you say, listen, you've got g coming
- 13:19Speaker 1: up here soon into the US. He's going to meet
- 13:21Speaker 1: with President maybe needs another bargaining chip. This would definitely
- 13:24Speaker 1: do it. And I think that's a factor that you
- 13:27Speaker 1: have to consider. The other thing that you have to
- 13:29Speaker 1: consider is what andre Jik was saying about this, because
- 13:33Speaker 1: when you look at the kapex war capital expenditures war
- 13:38Speaker 1: right now for AI, you have to consider how does
- 13:41Speaker 1: this thing unwind safely. Listen to what andre had to.
- 13:45Speaker 3: Say, The trillion dollars that America's spending, Well, here's something interesting.
- 13:50Speaker 3: This is China on that same scale. America seven hundred
- 13:54Speaker 3: and sixty four billion dollars this year and then one
- 13:57Speaker 3: trillion next year, three percent of the whole US economy.
- 14:02Speaker 3: China one hundred two billion this year, one hundred twenty
- 14:06Speaker 3: three billion next year, zero point six percent of their economy,
- 14:11Speaker 3: which means America's outspending China almost ten to one. During
- 14:16Speaker 3: the dot com bubble, the Nasdaq index peaked in March
- 14:20Speaker 3: of two thousand. Now, all the companies that were laying
- 14:23Speaker 3: the fiber optic cables at the time, which are the
- 14:25Speaker 3: data centers of that era, they kept spending billions of
- 14:29Speaker 3: dollars well into two thousand and one, even though the
- 14:33Speaker 3: stock market collapsed a full year before their spending stopped.
- 14:39Speaker 3: So the trigger this time around, I think will be
- 14:41Speaker 3: something a lot more subtle, something like a big tech
- 14:45Speaker 3: earnings call where a CEO says something like, we are
- 14:49Speaker 3: moderating the pace of our infrastructure investment, some boring small
- 14:53Speaker 3: thing like that. And that's because the first company that
- 14:57Speaker 3: gets rewarded by Wall Street for cutting their AI spending,
- 15:01Speaker 3: that will give every other CEO permission to do the
- 15:05Speaker 3: same thing, all right, So.
- 15:08Speaker 1: He hits it on the head there, and there is
- 15:10Speaker 1: something to watch here very closely. I want you to
- 15:12Speaker 1: watch what happens with the MetaStock because Zuckerberg has already
- 15:17Speaker 1: hinted that they're gonna slow this down. And if you
- 15:21Speaker 1: see another major company because right now, not necessarily you know,
- 15:25Speaker 1: seeing a major impact in terms of being rewarded, because
- 15:29Speaker 1: matter Stock not doing it great. But the point being,
- 15:32Speaker 1: if you do see a company or two, it may
- 15:35Speaker 1: take more than one. It may take more than one
- 15:37Speaker 1: unless it's someone major, but it may take more than one.
- 15:40Speaker 1: That we'll get into that. And I think though the
- 15:44Speaker 1: minute that occurs, the run rate of what we will
- 15:48Speaker 1: see on selling AI stocks will be unprecedented, maybe even
- 15:53Speaker 1: more so than what we saw in the dot bomb era. Remember,
- 15:56Speaker 1: because that was and he is right, it was led
- 15:58Speaker 1: by telecommunications, which was really trying to lay down the
- 16:01Speaker 1: fiber to deal with the growth of the Internet.
- 16:03Speaker 2: That's what all that boiled down to.
- 16:06Speaker 1: Another thing you have to consider right now is what's
- 16:08Speaker 1: going on with deep Seek. So Router's reported that deep
- 16:11Speaker 1: Seek is secretly developing its own AI chip. This is
- 16:13Speaker 1: going to be a direct hit on Invidia, which is
- 16:16Speaker 1: a direct hit on AI. This is also a threat
- 16:20Speaker 1: to Huawei simultaneously. And then when you consider not only
- 16:24Speaker 1: that Deep Seek, Remember they've done this twice, all right,
- 16:28Speaker 1: They've challenged kind of the narrative twice. First showing the
- 16:31Speaker 1: need fewer chips to operate, that's already been done and
- 16:35Speaker 1: than anyone thought that proved out. And then now if
- 16:38Speaker 1: they come in and actually build their own chip, and
- 16:41Speaker 1: if they build a chip cheaper and more capable, then
- 16:46Speaker 1: we really have a problem because you've got infrastructure, including
- 16:49Speaker 1: these massive companies and all go with AMD, also with Nvidia.
- 16:54Speaker 1: You look at what's going on with almost every company
- 16:57Speaker 1: out there that's building on that infrastructure.
- 16:59Speaker 2: This is huge and it could be a.
- 17:01Speaker 1: Big hit on AI, and of course the unraveling of
- 17:03Speaker 1: that will impact major market position, which will eventually impact crypto.
- 17:09Speaker 1: This is the one thing that may change a lot
- 17:12Speaker 1: of this narrative, and that is the Trump g meeting,
- 17:16Speaker 1: and it's coming right there September twenty fourth. This is
- 17:21Speaker 1: probably I will say that this is one of the
- 17:23Speaker 1: most important meetings that a US president has ever done,
- 17:28Speaker 1: and there are many reasons. Two is that you've got
- 17:32Speaker 1: the US and China pretty much leading the AI race.
- 17:36Speaker 1: Let's just call that reason one. We've got to come
- 17:38Speaker 1: to some alignment. Maybe this could be the most important
- 17:41Speaker 1: meeting yet.
- 17:41Speaker 2: So that's what's happening right now, guys.
- 17:43Speaker 1: This is a big week and there's going to be
- 17:47Speaker 1: so much I think that comes out of not only
- 17:49Speaker 1: what's happening in Iran, but what is going on in
- 17:51Speaker 1: the market next. The next move over the next few
- 17:54Speaker 1: days is going to be critical to where crypto goes
- 17:58Speaker 1: from here, So stay tuned for that. If you like
- 18:07Speaker 1: this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below,
- 18:10Speaker 1: and also join our free private member group.
- 18:13Speaker 2: The links in the description h