Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 488 - 4/9/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 488 - 4/9/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to. Episode 480.
• 0:17
  Eight of the all. Systems Go sports betting
• 0:19
  podcast powered by Rhythm. I am your host, Josh.
• 0:24
  Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy. Thirsty.
• 0:31
  Thursday. Another day here in the arena,
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  guys. And of course, because it is a
• 0:35
  Thursday. You know what that means?
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  We have. Our Thursday night rhythm
• 0:39
  rundown. A live stream on Twitter.
• 0:41
  Myself, my partner in crime. My buddy a sharp.
• 0:44
  Wise guy from Ohio, Mr. Cade Harper so looking.
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  Forward to, as always, opening up our Our Rhythm app.
• 0:51
  Looking through the games. Looking for system matches,
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  looking for edges. Of course, we got MLB going on
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  right now, so we'll talk. About some MLB plays for tonight
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  again. 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM Eastern Time.
• 1:02
  Stream live on Twitter. But also I was.
• 1:04
  Looking at some NBA. Player props and again
• 1:07
  opportunity here. To maybe talk some.
• 1:09
  Masters Golf. I'm not a huge.
• 1:11
  Golfer. But I know my buddy Kate Harper
• 1:13
  is. And you do.
• 1:13
  Have the AI caddy. Which is available on the Rhythm
• 1:17
  app as well, so. As always, guys, if you, if you
• 1:19
  got some free time, if you're twiddling your thumbs.
• 1:21
  You know, getting. Ready for all the games to start
• 1:23
  tonight? 6:00 to 7:00 PM time get.
• 1:26
  Right on Twitter. Log in.
• 1:27
  And Kate and myself will be breaking down the games.
• 1:30
  And really the goal is to kind of show users and members how to
• 1:34
  use. Rhythm to your advantage.
• 1:35
  How to read the system plays? How to interpret the bet splits
• 1:38
  in the betting market compared to what Rhythm is offering and
• 1:41
  of course creating your own. Systems which is always fun
• 1:44
  using a variety of parameters, so look.
• 1:46
  Forward to seeing everybody. Tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time.
• 1:49
  Live on Twitter, a reminder. If you do want to give Rhythm a
• 1:52
  shot, there's a 7 day free trial and you can also get 20. 5% off
• 1:55
  by using the promo. Code start 25.
• 1:59
  Now excuse me. Excuse me?
• 2:01
  Looking for today guys. We have a 2.
• 2:04
  Pack. Only two bats here, so try to
• 2:06
  get at least one if we. Get both that.
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  'D be even. Better, but a very short, small
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  slate here on Thursday for MLB. There's only six games overall.
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  I found an early game that caught my.
• 2:15
  Eye I found a late. Game that caught my eye with
• 2:18
  some good system matches. Market moves.
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  See if we can get at least one of them, but try to get both.
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  That would be a nice. Little nice little 2 and up,
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  which I think we deserve because we've got some bad beats here.
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  Recently in Major League Baseball.
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  So 2 plays for tonight, 1 short favorite, one larger favorite.
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  Looking back to our last night, guys 1 and 2 -, 1.35 units.
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  Had a nice it with the Orioles coming through for us twice in
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  two days. Had a big five to three win
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  versus the White Sox and then unfortunately two teams that
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  completely. Let us down one Kansas.
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  City Royals. How disgusting were the Royals
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  yesterday, guys? Kansas City had a good sharp
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  line move there as low as like. -115 steamed up to -1. 30
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  Reagan's versus Cantillo felt like an edge there.
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  Great bet. Split system matches.
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  Then what happens? Reagan's gets hurt, gets hit by
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  a line drive in the first inning, they pull him and the
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  pitching staff blows up. Late in the game you lose 1:50
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  so. Frustrating loss there with the
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  Royals. And then man.
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  I haven't sweat a Seattle game so far this year.
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  Remember how great they were last year?
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  But they had a really sharp move, you know, very short like.
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  -115. Favorite up two round?
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  -120 - 1. 25 Great bet Split Woo wasn't terrible on the bump, but
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  those Seattle hitters, I don't know what is going on there they
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  couldn't do. Anything, and I mean anything.
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  Against against that Texas pitching.
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  I think they got a little one hitter or two hitter.
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  The other frustrating part was there was a play at.
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  Home. Where it was Connor Joe, I
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  didn't even know he was on the Mariners.
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  He used to be on. Pittsburgh and Colorado, but.
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  He's playing first. Base Little little dribbler
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  throws it home to get the force out.
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  Nope, throws it over the catcher's head.
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  In a couple run score so. Royals and Mariners let us down,
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  unfortunately. Luckily, the Orioles came.
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  Through, but as always, guys, long season.
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  We just got to keep grinding MLB and we got to just keep sticking
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  with it. So that being said.
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  Let's waste no further time. I want to talk first about.
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  An early match. Up here, so if we get the pot
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  out quick, if you want to ride it with me, you're more than
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  welcome to. I got a seat in the.
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  In the in the in the bandwagon if.
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  You want to ride this game with me?
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  But anyway one. 40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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  I want to focus. On the Detroit Tigers.
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  Playing and visiting the Minnesota Twins.
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  Now let's set the stage talk split system matches.
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  I'll give you my play here. Now the twins come in six and
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  six. Now, did you know?
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  This is the four fourth game of a of a four.
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  Game set and. Unbelievably, Minnesota has won.
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  All three. Of these first 3.
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  Games they won the. Opener 7:00 to 3:00.
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  As a -1. 25 home favorite They won the second game four to two
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  as a + 140 home dog. They won again yesterday 8 to 6
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  as a + 130 home dog. So I don't know who this says
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  you know more about. Maybe Minnesota is just, you
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  know, better than we think. Or maybe Detroit is much worse
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  than we thought. And I don't love it because I
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  did play. Detroit over 80. 5 1/2.
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  Wins, but anyway. Tigers who are four and eight,
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  they're going to try to avoid the sweep by sending.
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  Out the righty Jack. Flaherty.
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  He's Owen, one with A7. .56 ERA. Twinkies, meanwhile, going with
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  the righty Mick Abel Owen 211 Point O 5.
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  ERA what? Do we see across the market
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  here? This game open.
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  With Detroit. Listed as a pretty short. -120.
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  Five Rd. Favorite Minnesota around a
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  plus. 105 home dog. And sharps, they're saying, hey,
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  let's back the Tigers to get back on track.
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  Avoid the sweep here. Because again, it's hard to
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  sweep before game set. Let alone.
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  Against a divisional opponent, but we've seen this line.
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  Move toward Detroit. -125 up to minus. 1:35 We got some good
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  bet. Splits on the Tigers DraftKings
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  72%, Bets 81%. Dollars at Circa. 73% bets over
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  90% money line dollars. So both.
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  DraftKings and Circa showing a good split on the Tigers here
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  combined with that line. Move tells us smart money here,
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  leaning and going hard. With Detroit now.
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  Want to continue to mention this because it's always interesting
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  to me, you know, did the. Did the team win one and then
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  did they win by one or? Did the run line?
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  Cash. Because it's interesting to look
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  at how the betting market. And the splits line up on the
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  money line versus the the run line again the -1 1/2.
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  So you're going to win by. Two but the Tigers.
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  Run line -1 1/2 + 125. Has a pretty good split at.
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  DraftKings 60% bets but 88% spread dollars.
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  Now. Tigers have the better overall.
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  Team batting average hitting 239 versus 222 for Minnesota.
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  They also hit. Better against Rady
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  specifically, they're hitting 237 against Rady's. 217 for
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  Minnesota. Maybe I'm grasping at straws
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  here, but Detroit has been. Better in day games Three and
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  one in day games. Minnesota is 3 and 4.
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  In day games. We've also seen.
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  Some money hit this. Under it's opened at or sorry,
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  we've seen this smart money actually lean.
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  Over a bit here. Because the total is 8 with the
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  juiced. Up over -115 and we actually.
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  Did see some shops creep up to. 8 1/2.
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  So we've seen that liability leaning over here if you look
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  at. DraftKings.
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  The over is getting. 72% of bets and 80% of dollars.
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  Circa over is getting over 90. Percent of bets in dollars.
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  Now the over is 2. Two and one so far this series.
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  And look at the weather. It's going to be a little cold,
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  you know, mid to high 40s. But around 10 mile per.
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  Hour winds blowing out. To right center.
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  So a couple guys with pretty bad eras.
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  Again, can you get? Nine runs or more?
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  A lot of these books are 8 juiced.
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  Over -1. 15 but some books. Again creeping up to.
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  To eat and half. So it looks like there's some.
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  Liability here on the over. We got all up here, guys.
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  I'm going to back on the Tigers to finally show up and win a.
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  Game and. Avoid a four-game sweep.
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  I got Detroit. On the money line -130.
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  That was a little bit of a reduced price at DraftKings or
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  sorry, at BET. MGM, lot of other.
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  Books closer to -135. Now a late game for you 9. 40 PM
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  Eastern Time. Let's look toward the Colorado
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  Rockies. And a NL W matchup visiting the
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  San Diego dads. Now this is the opener of a
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  four-game set the Rockies. Here's a win total that I am
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  excited about. I played Rockies over 50. 5 1/2.
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  Wins, there's six and six. I can't believe it.
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  There are 500 team. They just swept the Astros at
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  home. Unbelievably won yesterday's
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  series. Finale 9 to one as A + 120 home.
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  Dog pods. Meanwhile, 6 and 6.
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  Did just take two or three though against the pirates.
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  They won the series finale yesterday, 8:00 to 2:00 as a -.
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  125 Rd. Favorite.
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  So pitching match. Up here for tonight, you might
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  see. Colorado.
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  As quote UN quote undecided. But right as I was getting ready
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  to write my article. And get the pod going I noticed.
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  The Beat. Writer for Colorado said that
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  Rockies. Are going to open with the.
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  An opener here so. Probably only go 1 inning.
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  But go with the. Ready, Jimmy Herget.
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  Or herget. O&O one point.
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  Five OERA, you know all the pods are going to go with the fellow.
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  Righty, Randy. Vasquez, one and O. 0.75 ERA
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  what? Have we seen across the market
• 9:16
  here? Well, this game opened.
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  San Diego listed as a pretty big. -180.
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  Five home favorite Colorado. Around a + 160.
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  Five Rd. Dog.
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  And again, big. Number like that in division
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  game, does it go up because wise guys like the favorite or does
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  it drop down because hey divisional dog you know, might
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  as well take? That big plus money?
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  Well, it looks like the former, not the latter, because this
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  line has gone up further towards San Diego.
• 9:41
  San Diego's gotten steamed up -185 up to -200 now we look at
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  the splits at DK. Pods are getting 83% of money
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  line. Bets but nearly 90% of money
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  line. Dollars at Circa.
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  San Diego 63% bets, 81% dollars, So both DraftKings and Circa.
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  Showing a pretty good Padres low bets higher.
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  Dollar split in their. Favor to hopefully.
• 10:04
  Get a win. At Petco Park now.
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  Because it's a big number. Again, always check out the the
• 10:10
  run line because it does look like a lot of pros have.
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  Gone San Diego -1 1/2 instead of going money line, you know -200
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  you can get the -1 1/2 at around plus 110 and we have seen that
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  DK 79% spread. Bets 86.
• 10:25
  Percent spread dollars on San Diego.
• 10:27
  And at circa. 50% Spread bets 61.
• 10:30
  Percent spread dollars. Now this is a big number.
• 10:33
  I got San Diego -190. At Bet MGM, shop around some
• 10:37
  books again further into the minus. 200 range.
• 10:41
  But we do. Have a lot of system matches
• 10:42
  lighting. Up on San Diego.
• 10:44
  Home favorites facing an opponent who missed the playoffs
• 10:46
  the previous year. They are 40. 9 and 2963.
• 10:50
  Percent, 3% ROI this year. Both teams coming off a win.
• 10:54
  Which is the case here. Take the home team 121 and 79
• 10:58
  this year. 61 percent, 10% ROI. Actually, that's since 2025.
• 11:03
  And then also big favorites on Thursday.
• 11:06
  Kind of getaway day here. This is the start of a new
• 11:08
  series, but a lot of these are are kind of those weird, you
• 11:11
  know, final games of whatever series you're currently played
• 11:13
  in. But we have seen Thursday home.
• 11:15
  Favorites -175 or more Go 28 and 1270% win rate. 2% ROI.
• 11:22
  Since 2025 now. San Diego has additional
• 11:26
  correlative betting value as a big favorite -200.
• 11:29
  And a low total game of eight so.
• 11:31
  The fair amount of expected run score more likely to come from
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  quote UN quote that better team is.
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  Expected to win. We have seen the pros lean under
• 11:38
  here. Total open at 8:00.
• 11:40
  But it's just under, so it's just up to the.
• 11:42
  Under 8. Under -115 We have seen a
• 11:45
  couple. Good splits here.
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  On the under at DK, 47% bet. 65% dollars on the under at Circa.
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  50% bets 92% dollars on the under.
• 11:56
  So you got it all up here, guys. Again, I don't love laying -1
• 12:00
  nineties -2 hundreds, but you always.
• 12:02
  Got to remember no matter if it's a big number especially or
• 12:06
  any number regardless, it's always bet to risk, not bet to
• 12:08
  win. So if you're going to ride.
• 12:10
  San Diego with me tonight again, shop.
• 12:12
  Around because bet MGM. Still has -190.
• 12:14
  I actually saw Bally bet head. -225.
• 12:18
  For San Diego, so just goes to show you how.
• 12:20
  Different books have different numbers and you got to have
• 12:22
  those multiple outs. You can.
• 12:23
  Get the best price but regardless, always bet.
• 12:26
  Trust first bet. To win.
• 12:27
  So for example if. You're going -190 Padres with
• 12:30
  me. You're not risking 1.9 units to
• 12:33
  win one unit. You're always.
• 12:34
  Risking your one unit. Trying to get.
• 12:36
  Basically a half unit back here. And again, reason being, if the
• 12:40
  Padres lose, we don't want them to lose, we want them to win.
• 12:43
  But worst case scenario, they lose.
• 12:45
  You lose 1 unit. If you.
• 12:46
  Bet to risk versus. Losing 1.9 units or two units.
• 12:50
  If you bet to win. So Tigers.
• 12:52
  Padres. Let's get at least one.
• 12:54
  Let's try to get. Both here tonight.
• 12:55
  On the MLB diamond. So that about does it for
• 12:58
  episode 488. Of the all.
• 13:00
  Systems Go Sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 13:03
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 13:06
  always start first by. Saying thank you, thank you for
• 13:08
  listening. Thank you for tuning in.
• 13:09
  Thank you for. Grinding.
• 13:11
  In the arena with me every single day through the wins, the
• 13:14
  losses, the good, the bad, the good, the bad and the ugly.
• 13:18
  But of course, guys, it's a it's really an honor for me toast
• 13:21
  this pod and and. Have everyone pull.
• 13:23
  Up a chair to the virtual bar. Feel like you.
• 13:25
  Guys are my buddies. We're just talking.
• 13:27
  Sharp bets. Every day.
• 13:28
  So I'm very honored. Toast this pod.
• 13:30
  If you. Want to help me grow the
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  podcast? Please do one of any of these
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  following things give. The podcast, a five star review
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  on Spotify or iTunes. Recommend the pod to a friend.
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  Click the follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
• 13:42
  as the pod drops each day. Or retweet the pod at Josh under
• 13:45
  Score Insights. Every time I tweet it out.
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  Every day. Next.
• 13:50
  If you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown and you want.
• 13:53
  To learn more. About data-driven betting.
• 13:55
  Maybe you? Want to just?
• 13:57
  Hold something in your hand, you right in the margin.
• 13:58
  Something go back to maybe? You have.
• 14:00
  Someone in your life who could use some?
• 14:01
  Data-driven tips. Or you just want to support?
• 14:03
  The team or if. Any of those are true.
• 14:06
  I would love for you to go to. Amazon.com and type in the.
• 14:09
  NFL sharp betting playbook. Or type in the.
• 14:12
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 14:14
  Those are the two books that I've written, very proud of,
• 14:16
  both about great Intel, great insight, and if you want to
• 14:19
  bring those books to the sports book, I'll sign them for you.
• 14:22
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 14:24
  I will get a. Hot dog, maybe some nachos.
• 14:26
  Sweat some baseball together tonight.
• 14:29
  Next, have you downloaded? Rhythm and Juice real yet my two
• 14:32
  favorite sports betting apps. They help me win.
• 14:33
  They're going to help you win. Rhythm is great for their AI
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  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
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  Excuse me, I. Mean I'm coughing today.
• 14:42
  Maybe. Maybe it's the seasonal
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• 14:45
  I always struggle. Every year hasn't happened yet.
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  Maybe today's the day, who knows, but anyway, rhythm great
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  for their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
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  player props Reminder we have our rhythm rundown tonight at.
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  6:00 PM Eastern Time. And we also have.
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  MLB but NBA. And and golf as well.
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  Live in the Rhythm app. Also Juice Reel Juice Reel is
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  bets on juice rail? But download Rhythm.
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  Download juice reel give. Them both a five star review.
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  And the App Store. Next, you have a live odds.
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  Page. Well, if you don't have one.
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  You need one. It's such a critical.
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  Tool to being a. Successful sports better?
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  Because it's. Going to allow you to track the
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  market in real time so as soon as anything changes the odds
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  light up in red in front of you and they move to the the newest
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  number you can pull up the line. History Shop for the best price
• 16:11
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  as well as those really cool sharp signals and injury.
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  Alerts available with the. Odds logic.
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  Live odds. Page so if you want to give.
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  It a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com slash.
• 16:28
  Josh, 123. Next, have you heard of Profit
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  X? Profit X is a sports betting
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  exchange. It's not a sports book.
• 16:34
  So you're betting against other betters, your peers, instead of
• 16:37
  going up against the house. Which is going to force you to
• 16:39
  pay -115 -? 120 juice.
• 16:42
  Because you're not going up against the house, you're going
• 16:44
  to pay. -1 O 5. Plus one O 2 - 1 O3.
• 16:47
  Far better juice prices. Which means you can win it.
• 16:50
  At the. Same rate you would at
• 16:51
  DraftKings or FanDuel or any other sports book.
• 16:54
  But make more money. Because you're you're making
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  more in the back end because you're risking less juice.
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  So go download the Profit X app. That's PROPHET.
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  X and use the promo code Josh Josh for a 20%.
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  Deposit match to the Profit X app.
• 17:11
  So that about dozen guys on a big Thursday, kind of a short
• 17:14
  and sweet pod here. And I tell you what guys, let's
• 17:17
  see if we can get a couple winners here in Major League
• 17:19
  Baseball. There's a huge slate for
• 17:21
  tomorrow. And again, we do have the the
• 17:23
  playoffs here coming. Up NBA and NHL.
• 17:25
  And I tell you what I made, I was thinking about it.
• 17:28
  I'm going to play every Game 7 under for NB.
• 17:30
  ANHL Playoffs. It's a great system sometimes I
• 17:33
  don't always do it. I'm already going to tell you
• 17:36
  we're. Playing every Game 7 under with
• 17:38
  that great. System match.
• 17:39
  But anyway, guys, as always, two final thoughts.
• 17:41
  One, whether I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 17:45
  River in Rhode Island. The Brooklyn, New Hampshire.
• 17:46
  Foxwoods or Mohegan? Sun down in Connecticut.
• 17:49
  At the. Encore in Boston plain Ridge
• 17:51
  park casino MGM Springfield or the Nash in my neck of the woods
• 17:55
  on the border of. Massachusetts in New Hampshire.
• 17:57
  They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down, or
• 18:00
  Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 18:02
  possible is found at the South Point, or Sweat and Sharp
• 18:05
  Contrarian. Plays jumping in the stadium
• 18:07
  swim pool when? You catch a big ticket at Circa.
• 18:09
  You're going to walk up to me, show me an Orioles ticket.
• 18:12
  Nice to see the birds come through.
• 18:14
  But the Royals and the Mariners, How pathetic.
• 18:17
  Just just a little bit frustrating.
• 18:19
  A long season. We're going to stick with it.
• 18:21
  We're. Going to be profitable in the
• 18:22
  end. So as always, guys coming off a
• 18:24
  one and two or a two and one and O and three or a three and OA
• 18:27
  winning day, a losing day, an awesome day, a terrible day, a
• 18:30
  hot streak, a cold streak, we just got to stay.
• 18:33
  Even keeled. Not get too high, not get too
• 18:36
  low. We're always somewhere in the
• 18:37
  middle. When we're stacking units left
• 18:39
  and right, we're never as good as we think.
• 18:40
  When we're struggling and can't hit the broadside of a barn,
• 18:43
  we're never as bad as we think. But if we can stick to the
• 18:45
  model. Avoid the games with red flags
• 18:48
  and get down on the games that check off our boxes.
• 18:50
  Games that are against the public, with the house, with the
• 18:53
  pros. Flat bet.
• 18:54
  Avoid parlays and get that CLV if we can do that.
• 18:57
  We're going to be. Successful sports bettors, so if
• 18:59
  everyone has a great Thursday look.
• 19:01
  Forward to seeing you all tonight.
• 19:04
  Live on Twitter. 6:00 PM. Eastern Time for the rhythm
• 19:06
  rundown, and I'll be right back at it tomorrow.
• 19:08
  That'll be a big Friday Edition episode. 489 of the all systems
• 19:13
  go. Sports betting podcast powered
• 19:15
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 19:17
  great. Thirsty Thursday.